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REDEFINING PARTNERSHIPS:
PHILIPPINES–RUSSIA RELATIONS AMID GEOPOLITICAL
TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC
ROMAN FAINSHMIDT
Lecturer
Moscow School of Social and Economic
Sciences (MSSES) (Russia)
Lecturer
President University (Indonesia)
Senior Lecturer
Institute for Social Sciences RANEPA (Russia)
Researcher
Center for Contemporary Political Studies ISS
RANEPA (Russia)
REDEFINING PARTNERSHIPS:
PHILIPPINES–RUSSIA RELATIONS AMID GEOPOLITICAL
TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC
Structure
-Introduction
-Philippines–Russia ties: history and timeline, directions of cooperation, specificities
-Indo-Pacific region: definition and geopolitical landscape
-Current geopolitical transformation of the Indo-Pacific
-Russia’s security concerns
-Philippines’ security concerns in the framework of the Indo-Pacific
-Prospects of Russia-Philippine relations
-Conclusions
-Q&A session
Time: 1 – 4 P.M. (Manila time)
Break: 20 minutes
National Defense College of the Philippines (Manila), 28.11.2023
INTRODUCTION
1. The Philippines and Russia are facing critical
juncture in relations
2. The IPR experiences complexities arising from
geopolitical transformations
3. Flexibility in global relations
4. Need to encompass regional, economic, and
security dimensions
PHILIPPINES–RUSSIA TIES
2022
Major power
2,23 %
3,25%
$ 36 485 (PPP)
! ~1,81%
"#$#%&&'(
"#)*+),&(-
.%(!#$( .
/0% 1,19 mln of active personnel
+ 1,5 mln reservists
Sources: World Bank, WTO, OEC, ASEANStats, IISS, WTO, Federal
Customs Service of Russia, Lowy Institute
2022
Middle power
-( 0,4 %
' 0,7 %
$ 10 133 (PPP)
'
! ~1,3%
"#$#%(
"#)*+),'&( 24,9%
.%(!#$(' .
/0% 145 thousand of active personnel
+ 131 thousand reservists
PHILIPPINES–RUSSIA TIES:
1817
2016
2009
1976
1972
1946
The creation of
the "Philippines-
USSR Friendship
Society" in the
Philippines
The Philippines
gained
independence
1
The opening of
the Russian
Consulate in
Manila with
Peter Dobell, the
first Russian
Consul
Russian-
Philippine
Business
Council (RFDS)
was formed
Closer Relations
between Russia
and the
Philippines
under R. Duterte
Ferdinand
Marcos paid the
first official visit
to the USSR
establishing
diplomatic
relations
between the two
countries
2022
Geopolitical
tensions in
Eastern Europe
PHILIPPINES–RUSSIA TIES: DUTERTE’S TENURE
20162#$21!%#.2!(.
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6
May 2017 .% 21 !5% 3% /% 0
$#
October 2017 $ .% # "
6%%$#
November 2017 21!1/#3#37
)$ 6 8 6%% )!#
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2019 " 2!%% ;#> 6! 2;6 .# @% #% %%
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PHILIPPINES–RUSSIA TIES: DUTERTE’S TENURE
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)$ #30 . ' $# !% 2'@ #
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2018 – Interest of the Philippines to purchase Kilo-class diesel-
electric attack submarines Project 636 (‘Varshavyanka’)
Sep. 2018 2%(> 2!%% # . .%
%>())*
Oct. 2018 9%,3@%2!%%
Apr. 2019 !0/%.,.%D@===/%6.=*!01
A2!%%3#%3$#!*!6*1
November 2021 #!%'2!%% /' 0 %%!$ '
#A!-
INDO-PACIFIC REGION
- a geopolitical region covering the Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans )%##
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2006
2007
2013
2016
Annual dialogue between the
Institute for Defence Studies and
Analyses (IDSA), and the Japan
Institute for International
Affairs(JIIA) Shinzo Abe’s speech
‘Confluence of the Two Seas’
Japan declares the Free and Open
Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy to be the
core of its foreign policy doctrine
The first official use of the ‘Indo-
Pacific’ concept - Australia’s 2013
Defense White Paper
2017
In the U.S. National Security
Strategy, the term ‘Asia-Pacific’
was replaced with ‘Indo-Pacific’.
2017
ASEAN adopted its own ASEAN
Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)
D. Trump called 'Free and Open
Indo-Pacific' as the focal point of
U.S.'s Asia policy
2019
INDO-PACIFIC REGION:
Source: *.!$F%%%.
!#D*F--
Divergent Interpretations of
the Indo-Pacific Region
FREE AND OPEN INDO-PACIFIC (FOIP)
2016 – PM Shinzo Abe outlined the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy as Japan’s foreign policy
doctrine
- Originated from ‘Arc of Freedom and Prosperity’
2018 – Japan promoted the FOIP Vision instead of FOIP strategy
2023 – New Plan for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)” by F. Kishida
Four Pillars of FOIP Vision
Pillar 1. Principles for Peace and Rules for Prosperity
Pillar 2. Addressing Challenges in an Indo-Pacific Way (Climate and the environment / energy security; Food
security; Global Health; Disaster prevention and disaster response capacity; Cyber)
Pillar 3. Multi-layered Connectivity (Initiatives to further enhance connectivity; enhancing “knowledge”
connectivity, which is a further development of “human” connectivity; digital connectivity)
Pillar 4. Extending Efforts for Security and Safe Use of the “Sea” to the “Air”
Aspects of JMOD’s Approach
*!$%(!%.G%%(00.#.%#>$3%
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2023 – New Plan for a “Free and Open Indo-Paci'c (FOIP)” by F. Kishida
Four Pillars of FOIP Vision
1. Principles for Peace and Rules for Prosperity
9!#%!0%!#!#.H8!#$
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2. Addressing Challenges in an Indo-Pacific Way
3. Multi-layered Connectivity
4. Extending Efforts for Security and Safe Use of the “Sea” to the “Air”
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6$0%!%3.###%1
INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY OF THE UNITED STATES
‘The future of each of our nations— and indeed the world— depends on a free and open Indo-Pacific enduring and flourishing
in the decades ahead’ – President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (September 2021)
=#.$%3#(0:*)%7
9#
Investing in democratic institutions, a free press, and a vibrant civil society
Improving fiscal transparency in the Indo-Pacific to expose corruption and drive reform
Ensuring the region’s seas and skies are governed and used according to international law
Advancing common approaches to critical and emerging technologies, the internet, and
cyber space
6#
Deepening five regional treaty alliances with Australia, Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), the Philippines, and Thailand
Strengthening relationships with leading regional partners, including India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, New Zealand,
Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Pacific Islands
Contributing to an empowered and unified ASEAN
Strengthening the Quad and delivering on its commitments
Supporting India’s continued rise and regional leadership
Partnering to build resilience in the Pacific Islands
Forging connections between the Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic
Expanding U.S. diplomatic presence in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands
%!%
Proposing an Indo-Pacific economic framework
Promoting free, fair, and open trade and investment through the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC),
Closing the region’s infrastructure gap through Build Back Better World with G7 partners
INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY OF THE UNITED STATES
*!
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/$#%(0%%the Taiwan Strait
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Five objectives in the Indo-Pacific:
)#3.#=#.
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INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY OF THE UNITED STATES
INDO-PACIFIC ACTION PLAN (February 2022, 12-24 months)
3%!%=#.
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2.
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*!=#5%!#%#$#%
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THE ROLE OF ASEAN
FOIP Vision
*!%$.J)*+),;!D=#.);=M
%%.!#%%!%%%%0!%30#
!(%#.D%1
*$%%)*+),!$%$!3%3!%
/!0#6307.A)*+),630=3
‘We strongly support ASEAN’s efforts to strengthen connectivity in order to narrow
the gaps in the ASEAN region and further facilitate the integration of the ASEAN
Community, based on the “Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) 2025” and
the “ACMECS (Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy)
Master Plan”.
Japan strongly supports the centrality of ASEAN in the Indo-Pacific as well as its connectivity agenda
Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States
ASEAN is mentioned 19 times (more than China or Russia)
‘Like ASEAN, we see Southeast Asia as central to the regional architecture’
‘The United States also welcomes a strong and independent ASEAN that leads in Southeast Asia. We endorse ASEAN
centrality and support ASEAN in its efforts to deliver sustainable solutions to the region’s most pressing challenges.’
*$$##!.#)*+),%.=#.)
USA highlights the central role of ASEAN in the Indo-Pacific whose independence and unity are to be respected and
enhanced
Source: /%0.9$)..%.A
ASEAN OUTLOOK ON THE INDO-PACIFIC (AOIP)
Key elements:
) %3.3$ )%. # =# ;$% % $!!% %%
(!%%0$###$)*+),0$a central and strategic roleN
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Objectives:
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ASEAN OUTLOOK ON THE INDO-PACIFIC (AOIP)
Principles:
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AOIP is guided by the principles of the Treaty of
Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC)
Borders are
contested
Flexibility and inclusivity (not exclusionary) are the AOIP’s strengths, but it does not
specify how to achieve its objectives
CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL
TRANSFORMATION OF THE INDO-PACIFIC
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GDP Growth of Selected Economies, 2010-2022
Source: "F#8D!
CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL
TRANSFORMATION OF THE INDO-PACIFIC
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Direct threat to ASEAN functioning and existence
CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL
TRANSFORMATION OF THE INDO-PACIFIC
6$(%H$!$%#3%
US-led hub-and-spoke model7:*)A2!(.C"#%
US-Australia-Japan alliance network
US-Japan-Republic of Korea alliance network
AUKUS7)!%:C:*)
QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue): :*))!%=#A
Quad Plus: Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Vietnam, Brazil, Israel
Five Eyes: )!%6#,P#:C#:*)
3%1China, Russia (CSTO?),
North Korea
CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL
TRANSFORMATION OF THE INDO-PACIFIC
6$(%H$!$%#3%
Belt and Road Initiative 82=63%1Partnership for Quality Infrastructure L=ANGlobal
Gateway +:
RCEP6)*+),3%CPTPPANIndo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity =+9
:*)
Source:
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AIIB63%1ADBA
CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL
TRANSFORMATION OF THE INDO-PACIFIC
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- Restricted access to advanced technologies
CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL
TRANSFORMATION OF
THE INDO-PACIFIC
/K.$
Source: *=2=
CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL
TRANSFORMATION OF THE INDO-PACIFIC
=%$D#.!%..
+ Emerging nonproliferation challenges: North Korea, Taiwan
Source: 8!%%%=%#
RUSSIA’S SECURITY CONCERNS
"!0#$0.2!%%9#
"%#%!$0%
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=.%.2!%%#0
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List of unfriendly countries/
jurisdictions
+:H+:%%
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6#
- USA
- Australia
- New Zealand
- Singapore
- Japan
- Republic of Korea
- Taiwan (province of China)
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RUSSIA’S SECURITY CONCERNS
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PHILIPPINES’ SECURITY
CONCERNS
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PHILIPPINES’ SECURITY
CONCERNS
China’s 10-Dash Line
PHILIPPINES’ SECURITY
CONCERNS
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PHILIPPINES’ SECURITY
CONCERNS
The US-Philippines military alliance
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General Security of Military Information Agreement
(GSOMIA) by the end of 2023
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PHILIPPINES’ SECURITY
CONCERNS
The US-Philippines military alliance
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+#.%6)$+6)
General Security of Military Information Agreement
(GSOMIA) by the end of 2023
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PROSPECTS OF RUSSIA-
PHILIPPINES RELATIONS
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Exports – $ 560 mln (iron, vaccines, chemicals, etc.),
Imports – $ 444 mln (car parts, circuits, electronics, etc.)
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PROSPECTS OF RUSSIA-
PHILIPPINES RELATIONS
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Areas of cooperation: trade and investment, agriculture, telecommunications, nuclear energy (SMR)
Russia and the Philippines are expected to continue engagement and cooperation in a
number of areas to the extent that it does not jeopardize the US-Philippines alliance.
CONCLUSIONS
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LECTURER
Contacts
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
SALAMAT SA IYONG ATENSYON!
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