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A Survivability Assessment Model for the Weak-Link Power Grid under Extreme Events
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The concept of repeated multiple blackouts is introduced. The power outage data of information systems of 95598 power outage complaint recording, distribution network repair and management platform, and distribution network operation and monitoring platform are summarized and analyzed, and the actual investigation work is carried out. The common reasons of repeated multiple blackouts of distribution network are summarized, and the influence factor indexes are given for each reason to measure the probability of the repeated multiple blackouts. The index evaluation system is established by fuzzy AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)to evaluate the probability of the repeated multiple blackouts from three aspects, i. e. equipped level, operation and maintenance level, and grid structure level. The risk assessment of repeated multiple blackouts is carried out for an actual power outage case, and the comprehensive probability is obtained. © 2018, Electric Power Automation Equipment Press. All right reserved.
In order to efficiently choose poor health status networks from many low-voltage distribution networks to optimize and improve them, this paper proposes an evaluation method of health status of low-voltage distribution network based on order relation-entropy method. Firstly, evaluation index system from 6 status indexes is established. Secondly the indexes are processed consistently, and the indexes dimensionless is processed with extreme value. Then order relation analysis combining expertise is utilized to obtain index subjective weight, meanwhile entropy method is utilized to obtain index objective weight. Finally the optimal Lagrange multiplier method is used to obtain comprehensive index weight, then evaluation function is got, and health status of low-voltage distribution networks is assessed by the function. The feasibility and efficiency of the evaluation method are verified by analyzing several low voltage distribution networks in a certain area. © 2017, Power System Protection and Control Press. All right reserved.
By taking into consideration the uncertainty of the weather condition and system operating status, the model for certainty between load and outage rate is converted into a fuzzy one as wind or ice is certain to cause load influence on the transmission components outage rate. Then the fuzzy if-then rules of three input variables and fuzzy inference system are built to model the condition-based outage rate, and defuzzification is applied to obtain an exact non-fuzzy (crisp) value from a fuzzy set to evaluate power system reliability in a particular adverse weather condition. According to the weather condition based line outage rate model, multi-area reliability levels are solved and analyzed. Suppose 5 lie lines in RTS-79 are influenced in normal weather, adverse weather and extremely adverse weather conditions respectively. The line outage rates and reliability levels are calculated under different weather conditions to analyze the influence of weather conditions on the multi-area system reliability. This work is jointly supported by Special Fund of Excellent State Key Laboratory in National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50823001) and Special Fund of the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2004CB217908).
The time-varying weather conditions and electrical conditions have significant impacts on power system short-term operational reliability. This paper studies power system short-term operational reliability evaluation considering weather forecast. Firstly, a weather forecast model based on support vector machine(SVM) and short-term reliability models of power equipment are proposed to reflect the effects of operating conditions such as ambient temperature, wind velocity, weather condition, service time of equipment, load current and so on. Secondly, short-term reliability indices are extended, and the corresponding evaluation algorithm is developed. Finally, weak links of the power system are located through the short-term operational reliability evaluation. The proposed models and algorithms are tested under different operating conditions by using the modified IEEE RTS-79 system and their effectiveness is verified. This scheme can be applied in the area of both short-term operational planning and online dispatching of power systems to assist planners and operators to make decisions.
From the perspective of resistibility, recoverability, security and connectivity of backbone network an indicator system for survivability evaluation of differentiated planning is established, and the analysis on benefit and cost attributes of survivability indicators and the standardization of them are performed. On this basis, a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) model for the second-class indicators and a principal component analysis (PCA) model for the first-class indicator are built. Firstly, the maximum value of LDA judgment criterion function for the second-class decision matrix is solved, and according to the largest projection direction corresponding to this maximum value the weights of the third-class indicators are determined, then the PCA of the second-class indicator matrix is performed, and then according to the contribution rates of cumulative variances the weights of the second-class indicators are determined, and finally the synthetic survivability evaluation of backbone network is implemented. The validity and creditability of the proposed evaluation method are verified by simulation results of IEEE 118-bus system.
Overload of transmission lines is considered as one of the most important factors which results in further deterioration of the cascading failures in power systems. Therefore, based on the failure probability model for transmission lines, the risk indices of cascading failures which reflect the operating state of the system is calculated. A recursive algorithm is used to build the cascading failure tree which can record every state on cascading failure path and its relevant risk indices. Based on the operational reliability evaluation framework, combining with dynamic power flow calculation, a cascading failure operational reliability evaluation is carried for IEEE RTS test system. The risk indices of cascading failures under different transmission line rating capacities and load levels are calculated respectively. The calculation results illustrate that the indices can reflect the real system state and provide operators with early warning information which points out the weakness of the power system.
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