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Innovation Amidst Turmoil: A SenseMaker Study of
Managerial Responses to the COVID‑19 Crisis in Germany
Michael P. Schlaile, Veronica Hector, Luis Peters, Lukas Bäuerle, Beth Smith,
Annette Hilt, Silja Graupe
Dans Journal of Innovation Economics & ManagementJournal of Innovation Economics & Management 2024/1 (N° 43)2024/1 (N° 43), pages 285 à 318
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ISBN 9782807380431
DOI 10.3917/jie.pr1.0154
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VARIA
Innovation Amidst
Turmoil: A SenseMaker
Study of Managerial
Responses to the COVID‑19
Crisis in Germany
MichaelP. SCHLAILE
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research(ZALF), Germany
Institut für Ökonomie, Hochschule
für Gesellschaftsgestaltung(HfGG), Germany
Flying Faculty, Department of Economics,
Tur k ish-German U n iversi t y, Tu r key
Department of Innovation Economics,
University of Hohenheim, Germany
michael.schlaile@ zalf .de
Veronica HECTOR
Department of Societal Transition and Agriculture,
University of Hohenheim, Germany
Institut für Ökonomie, Hochschule für
Gesellschaftsgestaltung(HfGG), Germany
veronica.hector@ uni -hohenheim .de
Luis PETERS
Institut für Ökonomie, Hochschule für
Gesellschaftsgestaltung(HfGG), Germany
luis.peters@ hfgg .de
Lukas BÄUERLE
Department of Socioeconomics, University of Hamburg, Germany
Institut für Ökonomie, Hochschule für
Gesellschaftsgestaltung(HfGG), Germany
lukas.baeuerle@ uni -hamburg .de
Beth SMITH
The Cynefin co(Cognitive Edge LTD), Wales, UK
beth.smith@ thecynefin .co
n° 43 – Journal of Inn ovation Eco nomic s & Management 2024/1 285
DOI: 10.3917/jie.043.0285
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Annette HI LT
Department of Philosophy, Karlsruhe University of Education, Germany
annette.hilt@ ph -karlsruhe .de
Silja GRAUPE
President, Hochschule für Gesellschaftsgestaltung(HfGG), Germany
silja.graupe@ hfgg .de
ABSTRACT
We present the results of an exploratory study of transformation processes
in “wicked problem situations”, faced by 623 German managers due to the
COVID-19 crisis during summer 2021. Our study draws on a fruitful combi-
nation of sustainability transitions research, complexity theory, cognition in
economics, meme theory, and sensemaking by using the SenseMaker® soft-
ware platform as a data collection and analysis tool on patterns of meaning
in managerial self-signification and interpretation of their own decisions. We
contribute to current interdisciplinary debates by presenting an empirical
study on sensemaking during the COVID-19 pandemic that uncovers the
narrative patterns of managers during uncertain decision situations. Our
results suggest that while new habits have emerged and human ingenuity and
creativity is acknowledged, participants of our study appear to lack a strong
vision of a sustainable future beyond green growth and the dominant techno-
economic paradigm.
KEYWORDS: Innovation, Sensemaking, Narratives, Pandemic, Crises, Memes, COVID-19,
Sustainability
JEL CODES: B59, D80, H12, I19, L21, M14, O31, O35, Z13
1Despite many serious and catastrophic consequences for social and
economic systems, it has also been argued that the COVID-19 pandemic
has opened “windows of opportunity” (e.g., Kanda, Kivimaa, 2020; Dahlke
1. Funding information: The authors gratefully acknowledge funding for this study through the project
“Changing the foundations of economic thought in the midst of crisis – how economic actors create
new imagined futures for sustainable economies”, conducted at HfGG, funded by the Volkswagen
Foundation (grant number 99 116).
Acknowledgments: We have benefited from presenting and discussing earlier versions of this article at the
6th EAEPE Research Area [X] Workshop, 1-2 October 2021 in Volos, Greece, at the European Academy
of Management (EURAM) Annual Conference, 15-17 June 2022 in Winterthur, Switzerland, and at the
Forum Corona Crisis and Beyond, 5-7 December 2022 in Hanover, Germany. We are grateful for helpful
questions, comments, and feedback from participants at all three events, and most notably Gianpaolo
Abatecola, Matteo Cristofaro, César Hidalgo, Guido Neidhöfer, Davide Secchi, and Rehab Iftikhar, as well
as two anonymous reviewers for this journal submission. Finally, we would like to thank Peter Stanbridge
for his technical support and help with the statistical analyses.
M. P. Schlaile, V. Hector, L. Peters , L. Bä uerle , B. Smi th, A. Hilt, S . Graupe
286 Journal of Innovation Economics & Management 2024/1 – n°43
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et al., 2021; Alva Ferrari et al., 2023) for re-thinking, re-imagining, and funda-
mentally innovating economic habits and narratives towards more sustain-
able and regenerative ones (Waddock, 2019; Riedy, 2020a, 2020b; Waddock,
2020a, 2021; Riedy, Waddock, 2022). Such sustainability transitions (such as
the transition to a sustainable and circular bioeconomy; e.g., Pyka et al., 2022;
Schlaile et al., 2022) are usually long-term system innovations (Elzen et al.,
2004) in production and consumption modes that promote quality of life,
inter- and intragenerational equity and ecosystem stability (for overviews
of different approaches to sustainability transitions, see e.g., Loorbach et al.,
2017; Schlaile, Urmetzer, 2021). Yet, one of the most important and effec-
tive points of intervention for system innovations – potentially even in the
short term – are the paradigms, worldviews, or mindsets of economic systems
and their agents (e.g., Göpel, 2016; Waddock, 2020b; Friedrich et al., 2021;
Schlaile et al., 2022). Against this background, new approaches in economic
and organizational theory – especially in the field of decision theory – are
beginning to incorporate new capabilities (and limitations) of human agents
for both problem identification and problem solving in fundamentally uncer-
tain environments (Kurtz, Snowden, 2003; Snowden, 2005; Johnson, 2019;
Graupe, 2020; Bäuerle, 2021; Bäuerle, Graupe, 2023). However, the empiri-
cal operationalization of such sensemaking processes remains underexplored.
We argue that for the emergence of a possible new paradigm of economic
action, an exploratory, open-minded look at how managers already make
sense of their actions as of today might be a good starting point. Instead of
pitting a (possible) paradigm against, for instance, the still dominant rational
choice paradigm (e.g., Schlaile et al., 2017; Bäuerle, 2023), we tacitly assume
that a new paradigm might already be emerging in crisis-prone practices ‘out
there’. In this respect, the pandemic has been characterized by transbound-
ary dynamics and a high degree of uncertainty and unpredictability, which
has required rapid and innovative decisions by various leaders, innovators,
and other economic actors (Kuckertz et al., 2020; Crayne, Medeiros, 2021;
Medeiros et al., 2022; Schlaile et al., 2023).
Previous research on managerial sensemaking and decision-making
processes has often relied on applied psychology, linguistics, and respective
constructivist and qualitative approaches, using methods such as text and
discourse analysis, interviews, observations, and others (e.g., see reviews by
Brown et al., 2015; Golob, 2018; Cristofaro, 2022). In this regard, however,
the potential of combining narrative research with quantitative and mixed
methods approaches informed by evolutionary theory, complex systems
research, and cognitive science for both conceptual and empirical sensemak-
ing studies remains underutilized (see also Snowden, 2011; Lynam, Fletcher,
2015; van der Merwe et al., 2019; Cristofaro, 2022; Turner et al., 2022). Our
Innovation Amidst Turmoil
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contribution addresses this gap by tackling the following research question:
Which (memetic) patterns of meaning are reflected in managerial sensemaking
during the COVID-19 pandemic? In our exploratory study, we apply a rather
novel mixed-methods approach, particularly informed by cognitive science
and complexity theory, using the SenseMaker® software platform as an
online data collection tool (e.g., van der Merwe et al., 2019; Guijt et al., 2022).
This tool allows us to merge and triangulate qualitative and quantitative data
in a structured and systematic way (e.g., Bryman, 2006), which complements
qualitative studies of sensemaking and facilitates gaining a more fine-grained
understanding of managerial sensemaking in the context of crisis situa-
tions and system innovations. The method utilizes a compositional statistics
approach in which quantitative data is used as a means to describe and quan-
tify the patterns that underlie the qualitative data, and as such all statistical
inferences are relative to the qualitative data and are analyzed using compo-
sitional techniques (Aitchison, 1986; Upton, 2017).
During the summer months of 2021 (July 5 to September 20), we admin-
istered our questionnaire to 623 managers in a diverse set of organizations
in Germany. While the SenseMaker® data collection and analysis software
has already been applied in different empirical settings such as civic engage-
ment and in the context of humanitarian issues (e.g., Bakhache et al., 2017;
Mager et al., 2018; Bartels et al., 2019; van der Merwe et al., 2020; Mausch
et al., 2021; Vasilescu et al., 2021; Wagner et al., 2022; Wamsler et al., 2022a;
Cunningham et al., 2023), we are – to the best of our knowledge – the first to
run a SenseMaker® project on a national scale in a managerial and business
context. Moreover, Germany is an important case due to its leading role in
the European economy and the national and international impact of its legis-
lation on COVID-19 protective measures on businesses and managerial deci-
sions. Our survey is characterized by an open-ended prompting question and
several follow-up questions that enable the participants to formulate stories
of their own experiences with the COVID-19 pandemic and to make sense
of their shared stories (self-signification) using quantitative and qualitative
methods2. This approach also promises to facilitate the capture of emergent
patterns within the shared stories, thus enabling transformation-oriented
researchers to uncover potential levers for system innovation, particularly in
unordered problem situations during the current crisis (Snowden, Rancati,
2021). It should be noted, however, that while participants shared stories of
varying length, in this article, we do not focus on the (qualitative) details
of the themes and narratives of the stories themselves but rather report and
2. Note that the self-signification of one’s own narrative also works to decentralize and increase validity in
the quantitative outputs (Guijt et al., 2022; van der Merwe et al., 2019).
M. P. Schlaile, V. Hector, L. Peters , L. Bä uerle , B. Smi th, A. Hilt, S . Graupe
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interpret the quantitative results of our survey, in particular by means of plot-
ting and discussing collective patterns of signifiers, primarily using triadic
measures (see also Lynam, Fletcher, 2015; van der Merwe et al., 2019, for
details). However, to illustrate the connection between the patterns and the
narratives, we complement these quantitative findings with selected quotes
from the stories the managers shared.
In general, our study contributes to the current debates on sensemaking
and cognition in economic theory and organizational theory, in particular
by empirically exploring the patterns that emerge from the stories shared by
the managers on the SenseMaker® platform. More specifically, our study
reveals that in dynamic and uncertain decision-making contexts, individuals
seem to become increasingly aware of the potential for innovations in insti-
tutions and thought patterns (memes), suggesting a growing belief in their
ability to bring about transformative change. However, it is also observed
that people’s ability to envision compelling and sustainable futures does not
currently match their creative potential and ingenuity. Thus, our study also
contributes to the literature on sustainability transitions by pointing to some
blind spots that should be addressed in future research.
The paper is structured as follows: The next section presents a brief over-
view of the relevant literature at the intersection of (organizational) sense-
making and meme theory in the context of (changes in) complex systems.
The following section describes the sample and method of our online survey.
We then present the results from this survey and, thereafter, discuss our
findings and their implications before we draw our conclusions in the final
section.
Theoretical background
Sensemaking
Crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic can be understood as complex
and potentially “wicked problem” situations (Rittel, Webber, 1973; Dahlke
et al., 2021; Schlaile et al., 2023) characterized by a high degree of uncertainty
and unpredictability (Iftikhar, Müller, 2019; Högberg, 2021), in which lead-
ers, managers, and other decision makers are confronted with complex and
dynamic decision situations that challenge and disrupt established patterns
of meaning and action (Maitlis, Sonenshein, 2010; Christianson, Barton,
2020; Crayne, Medeiros, 2021; Förster et al., 2022; Medeiros et al., 2022; Roth
et al., 2022). Notably, one of the main prerequisites for deliberation in such
highly uncertain and complex contexts is the creation of new patterns of
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meaning (see also Hilt, 2005, on a related note). These processes of seeking
orientation, structuring information and knowledge, and acting in the world
by creating new meaning have frequently been labelled sensemaking. However,
various schools of thought have emerged around the question of how humans
make sense of and create meaning in situations when confronted with new
information (and the necessity of making sense thereof). Consequently, the
literature on sensemaking (sometimes explicitly spelled with a hyphen to
highlight the connection to a particular school of thought, e.g., some of the
approaches mentioned below), has been divided into (at least five) rather
distinct but also somewhat overlapping perspectives (Browning, Boudès,
2005; Klein et al., 2006a, 2006b; Urquhart et al., 2016; Dervin, Naumer, 2017;
Golob, 2018; Cristofaro, 2020, 2022).
One of the most well-known approaches to sensemaking (especially in
the management literature) was developed by Weick (1995) and focuses on
organizational settings. According to Weick, sensemaking is a retrospective
process that occurs when the environment is perceived as uncertain or differ-
ent from the expected state and helps to structure the unknown and create
order (Weick et al., 2005; Maitlis, Sonenshein, 2010; Lam, 2014).
Similarily, Snowden’s naturalized sense-making (NSM) aims at explor-
ing and understanding complexity first and foremost within organizational
contexts (Snowden, 2011; Turner et al., 2022). However, NSM can be distin-
guished from Weick’s approach as it is much more rooted in the natural
sciences and uses an evolutionary model to approach uncertainty (Jones,
2015; Snowden, 2021). The NSM school of thought is closely linked to the
Cynefin® sensemaking framework (Snowden, 2021; Snowden, Rancati, 2021)
and the SenseMaker® software platform (van der Merwe et al., 2019; Guijt
et al., 2022).
Dervin’s (1998) sense-making methodology has been developed since the
1970s and is mostly applied in the field of library, communication, and
information science (Dervin, Naumer, 2017). It was developed as a means of
studying users of knowledge systems and designing systems according to their
needs (Dervin, 1998).
Klein et al. (2006b) conceptualize sensemaking as an individual mental
model (frame) that represents the state of the world. In their data/frame theory
of sensemaking, the authors distinguish between the mental model formation,
that is, a backward-looking process, which explains past events, and mental
simulation, a forward-looking process that explains how the future might
unfold (Klein et al., 200 6b).
Finally, Russel and colleagues (1993) have developed another perspective
of sensemaking in the field of human-computer interaction. Accordingly,
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sensemaking involves the process of finding, collecting, and (re)organizing
information available in the digital world in order to achieve a deeper under-
standing and find ways to cope with huge amounts of data (Pirolli, Russel,
2011).
In this article, we draw primarily on the NSM approach that has been
mainly developed and promoted by Snowden and colleagues (Kurtz,
Snowden, 2003; Greenberg, Bertsch, 2021). For the sake of a working defini-
tion, we follow van der Merwe et al. (2019) in understanding sensemaking
as “a cognitive process that allows us to structure the unknown, to understand
and explain the world, and to inform action [...]. Through sensemaking processes,
information is interpreted and meaning assigned so as to inform behavior on both
the individual and collective scale” (p. 1).
Memes in the Context of Systemic Change
Notably, sensemaking processes are strongly influenced and informed
by the cultural context, prevalent memes and narratives, individual experi-
ences, and knowledge (Caracciolo, 2012; van der Merwe et al., 2019; Schlaile,
2021; Cristofaro, 2022; Schlaile et al., 2024). Memes can be understood as the
culturally evolved informational instructions that have been argued to shape
the narratives and schemata prevailing in our economic systems and thus are
at the core of (intentional and unintentional) changes in our ways of doing
business (Waddock, 2015; Schlaile, Ehrenberger, 2016; Waddock, 2016, 2019,
2020a, 2020b; Schlaile, 2021; Waddock, 2021). Memes can be argued to have
an impact on decision-making on several dimensions, including a cognitive
one (e.g., as interpretative frames or schemata; see also Schlaile, Ehrenberger,
2016; Cristofaro, 2022) and an emotional one, particularly in the sense that
emotional states and affective cues can have a strong impact on the resis-
tance (or willingness) to adopt and diffuse particular memes (e.g., Schlaile
et al., 2018, and references therein). While we are well aware of the contro-
versies around the notion of memes (e.g., Fomin, 2021; Gill, Price, 2022), we
deliberately use this term in line with the recent literature on the relationships
between memes, narratives, worldviews, mindsets, paradigms, and sustainabil-
ity transitions (Hedlund-de Witt, 2013; Waddock, 2015, 2016; Schlaile et al.,
2017; Waddock, 2019; Riedy, 2020b; Waddock, 2020a, 2020b; Laszlo et al.,
2021; Waddock, 2021; Schlaile et al., 2022). Consequently, investigating and
mapping memes as elements of complex (cultural and knowledge) systems by
way of capturing their codified or reified representations (e.g., as narratives)
has been suggested as one important pathway for studying and potentially
“managing” changes of complex systems (e.g., Waddock, 2020a), including
both organizations and entire innovation systems (e.g., Schlaile et al., 2017;
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2021a). For a more detailed discussion of the theoretical background of the
conceptual relationships between memes, stories & narratives, and discourses
in the context of systemic transformations, we refer to Riedy (2020a, 2020b),
Waddock (2020b, 2021), and Riedy and Waddock (2022). In our view, the
SenseMaker® methodology offers a way to capture, visualize, and analyze
these narrative representations of memes.
Methods
Various methods can be used to study narratives during crises, including
semi-structured interviews with experts. Another interdisciplinary approach,
drawing on findings from cognitive science, complexity theory, and the
sensemaking literature (among others), is the use of the SenseMaker® soft-
ware platform (https:// thecynefin .co/ about -sensemaker/ ) developed by The
Cynefin Company (formerly known as Cognitive Edge). SenseMaker® can
be used as a survey tool (https:// thecynefin .co/ how -to -use -sensemaker/ ) to
collect and analyze short stories from people about a concrete lived experi-
ence. It allows participants not only to share their stories but also to self-
interpret them by tagging themselves in a set of predetermined signifier
questions which generates quantitative numerical data (Mager et al., 2018;
van der Merwe et al., 2019; Guijt et al., 2022; Wagner et al., 2022; Wamsler
et al., 2022a). Therefore, this method facilitates the processing and statisti-
cal interpretation of larger amounts of data and micronarratives than more
conventional narrative analysis techniques, while reducing researchers’
interpretation bias (Lynam, Fletcher, 2015). SenseMaker® has thus served as
an instrument for mixed-methods research in various types of settings (van
der Merwe et al., 2019).
For our study, we applied the SenseMaker® method to conduct a survey
among managers residing in Germany. We developed a questionnaire
consisting of a prompt (an open-ended question asking participants to share
a story about an important moment that illustrates their decisions during
the COVID-19 pandemic)3, various multiple-choice questions, and clarifica-
tion questions through which participants could self-signify the stories they
shared using widgets such as triads, dyads, and stones (e.g., van der Merwe
et al., 2019; Guijt et al., 2022, for terminology and further methodological
details). The method deliberately departs from the use of traditional scales
3. Prompt: The COVID-19 pandemic has put decision-makers like yourself in unpreced ented situat ions. Imagine
that, after a long time of protective measures against the virus, you are meeting a busin ess partner in person again.
Which example of a particular course of action you took during this time woul d you tell them about? Please share
your story below.
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as a means to increase the cognitive load placed on respondents, in order to
encourage them to consider the issue in more and different dimensions than
they typically would and to reduce gaming of responses (van der Merwe et al.,
2019; Clark, 2023). The questionnaire framework was designed and imple-
mented based on an extensive literature review on possibilities of and limita-
tions to economic sensemaking procedures under uncertainty and building
on previous and ongoing conceptual work by Graupe (2019, 2020), Ötsch and
Graupe (2020), and Bäuerle and Graupe (2023). The process of drafting, test-
ing4, and finalizing the framework took approximately three months (April-
June 2021). This work was done by the project team in collaboration with
partners from The Cynefin Company (who also provided a helpful signi-
fier compilation from previous SenseMaker® frameworks). Our framework
is divided into three main parts: 1) an inquiry into the narrative of the pres-
ent (how were decisions influenced during the pandemic, items 1-9 in the
appendix), 2) an inquiry into the narrative of the future (how will decisions be
influenced after the pandemic, items 10-14 in the appendix), and 3) multiple-
choice questions (MCQs) about the respondents themselves (items 15-21 in
the appendix). The signifier questions are designed based upon relevant
literature and represent abstractions of concepts (see also Bäuerle, Graupe,
2023); the signifiers each relate to a culturally broadly understood concept
but are subject to a degree of interpretation and adaptation to the individual
respondent context. Since the study addresses managers in Germany, the
framework was designed in German, but the results are translated by the
authors and presented in English for this article. An English translation of
the complete framework can be found in the appendix for reference.
We combined probability sampling with a convenience and purposive
sampling strategy (Douglas, 2022) to capture a large number of narratives
and to include diverse perspectives around decision-making in times of
uncertainty. Study participants were invited through our own networks5 and
through a market research company and panel service provider (Bilendi)6 to
obtain a diverse sample regarding the management level and organizational
background. After quality checks (e.g., deleting duplicate data, removing
all questionnaires completed in less than 150 seconds, or where no stories
were shared, etc.), our final sample consists of N = 623 participants (about
30% female and 70% male) occupying a managerial position (33% in upper
4. A pretest was carried out twice to test for possible technical errors, to receive feedback on the intel-
ligibility of questions and instructions, and to check for biases within responses and non-item responses.
5. As well as those of our collaborators from Senat der Wirtschaft (https:// www .senat -deutschland .de),
Deutsches Netzwerk Wirtschaftsethik (https:// www .dnwe .de/ ), and Weltethos Institut/Global Ethic
Institute (https:// weltethos -institut .org/ ).
6. The planned sample contained managers from middle management to board/executive management
residing in Germany.
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management, 22% in middle management, 21% in lower management, 20%
in strategic/administrative management, and 4% in “other” management
positions) in a German private or public organization (heterogeneous sample
with regard to size and background of the organizations). The survey was
made available through both the SenseMaker® collector web version and
app and ran for 77 days from July 5th to September 20th, 2021. After partici-
pants had shared their story in the free text box, they were asked to answer
pre-determined follow-up questions. These were divided into three parts (as
mentioned above: present narrative, future narrative, MCQs). The follow-
up questions (eight triads, one dyad, two stones items, and two single select
MCQs [MCQ0; MCQ3 in the appendix]) aim at uncovering underlying
choice architectures and their affective signification (as calling forth positive
or negative feelings), for instance, asking how the participants perceive(d) the
world during the pandemic, whether they have developed new habits, how
they evaluated this change (as appearing positively or negatively grounded),
and which values guide(d) their decisions (see subsequent section)7. The
framework also enables inquiries into the narrative of the future and trans-
formative tendencies (see also Bäuerle, Graupe, 2023). Here, the study is
primarily interested in how participants perceive the future and evaluate
their own agency for shaping it. Finally, the five single-select (MCQ1-2 and
5-7 in the appendix) and one “select all that apply” (MCQ4 in the appendix)
MCQs included, concerning the socioeconomic position of the respondents,
not only help to ensure a diverse sample but also enable the detection of
patterns/contrasting results as presented in the following section.
Data analysis was conducted in an iterative process as outlined by Mager
et al. (2018). For this reason, we first analyzed emerging patterns within the
triads, the dyad, and stones, checked for outliers, and filtered triads with
MCQs and other questions of interest. We used Pearson’s goodness of fit test
to test the quality of the data and visualized correlations both by filtering
data (using the statistical analysis software integrated into the SenseMaker®
platform) and through cobweb diagrams (e.g., Agresti, 2013; Upton, 2017; as
also done by Wamsler et al., 2022b; see part 2 of the appendix for details).
Finally, we complemented the quantitative analysis with the shared stories,
which we analyzed inductively to explore the topics addressed.
7. Note that the f inal selection of values and principles t hat we chose to inquire about was, to a la rge extent,
inspired by and based on the decades of work done in the “Projekt Weltethos”/“Global Ethic Project” (e.g.,
Hemel, 2019; Küng et al., 2019). The five universal values they have identified are “non-violence”, “ justice”,
“truthfulness”, “equality & partnership”, and “ecological responsibility” (e.g., see https:// projektweltethos .de/ en/
about -weltethos/ ).
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Results
Narrative of the Present
Experiencing the World
For the first triad (item 3), which asks about the general way in which the
world was experienced, there is a strong tendency towards the bottom with
large clusters of stories in the lower left, center, and right parts of the triad (as
shown by the percentages in Figure 1) (note that each plotted data point is
connected to a shared story as illustrated by the examples in the text bubbles
in Figure 1). During the pandemic, the majority of respondents had experi-
enced the world as uncertain and chaotic and/or full of new opportunities.
Unsurprisingly, only few respondents indicated that everything remained
the same. This is also reflected in the shared stories: At the bottom of the
triad, stories were mostly about challenges with organizing health measures,
teleworking, or financial issues, while in the stories tagged in the top corner,
respondents mainly stated that their companies were not affected by the
pandemic, or that they had nothing significant to report from that time.
Figure1 – Experiencing the world
Another, more interesting result can be found when we look at this ques-
tion in combination with the affective MCQ (MCQ0 in the appendix)
about the participants’ feelings towards the story they shared: Participants
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with negative feelings about their story tend to regard the world as rather
unpredictable and chaotic, whereas those with very positive feelings towards
their story tend to view the world much more as being full of new opportu-
nities. Another interesting insight can be gained by combining this triad
with the question of whether the participants have founded the organiza-
tion they are working for. Founders tend to cluster rather on the bottom
right (full of new opportunities), whereas those that have not founded the
organization are much more evenly distributed among this triad. This find-
ing is also supported by Figure 3, which presents the results of a Pearson’s
goodness of fit test of the relationship between the variable ‘non-founders’
and the seven anchors of the triad “I experienced the world” in the form of
a cobweb plot (following Upton, 2017, as also done by Wamsler et al., 2022b).
Accordingly, there is a significant negative relationship (grey line) between
not being a founder and experiencing the world as being full of new oppor-
tunities, that is, the right anchor received significantly fewer responses from
‘non-founders’ than theoretically expected. The opposite is true for founders:
there is a significant positive relationship between experiencing the world as
being full of new opportunities and having founded the organization (again,
we refer the reader to part 2 of the appendix for more details).
Figure2 – Experiencing the world(founders vs. non‑founders)
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Figure3 – Cobweb plot: non‑founder and triad 3 “I experienced the world …”
Note: The lines ind icate the c ategor y combinations that have the largest s tanda rdized resid-
uals(black=positive, gray=ne gative)
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Habitualization
The fourth question asks about the evolution of habits during the
pandemic. As we can see in Figure 4, a very clear pattern emerges: 37% of
the respondents stated that they developed new habits during the pandemic.
These new habits mainly revolved around working from home8, setting up
health measures, and increasing collaboration and team cohesion9. There
are only small outliers toward the center and right, and toward the center
and left of the triad, indicating that relatively few people gave up old habits
or maintained their habits during the pandemic. In the bottom left corner
of the triad, the topics addressed are very diverse, ranging from business as
usual, neglecting or downplaying the pandemic, to very context-specific
stories, such as the report from a nursing home where visits continued to
be allowed (tagged in the left corner)10. In the right corner, the stories were
somewhat similar to the top as respondents mostly talked about changes in
their work and lifestyle due to working from home.
Figure4 – Developing, maintaining, or giving up habits
8. Sample narrative: “It was impressive how quickly we switched to remote working from one day to the next,
and how well we coped with it and still do. We took this situation as an opportunity to change our way of working
in general and make it more flexible—in the interests of our employees, too.”
9. Sample narrative: “Calling on all colleagues to work even more closely together in the difficult time during the
pandemic in order to overcome this time well an d perhaps also become stronger…”
10. Sample narrative: “Allowed the visit of relatives when all nursing homes closed their doors. In my opinion,
this is an act of benevolence, and it’s also necessary in times of crisis.”
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Decision-making Approach
Triad 5 (Figure 5), which asked respondents how they made decisions, presents
a more mixed picture. A slight emphasis on the top corner of the triad demon-
strates that most respondents decided spontaneously and intuitively in their
shared stories (21%). The topics in these tagged stories mainly revolved around
implementing or dealing with telework and health policies. There are also a
few conspiracy stories in this corner11. There is also a tendency toward the
center (20%) and left (16% and 15%) sides of the triad, indicating that people
have different approaches for decision-making, either acting spontaneously or
after a process of deep contemplation and reflection12.
Figure5 – Making decisions
A very clear pattern becomes evident in triad 6 (Figure 6). Here, partici-
pants were asked whether they did different things (top), did things differ-
ently (right), or assigned new meaning to their actions (left). The majority of
stories were plotted in the right corner (28%), with a notable outlier towards
the center right of the triad. This shows that most people shared stories where
they did things differently (e.g., working from home). However, due to the
11. Sample (conspiracy) narrative: “It’s madness what was constructed here on the basis of a virus, which does
not concern 99.7% of the population. Now I know how 1933 came about.”
12. Sample narrative (positioned at the bottom in the middle, slightly biased towards left corner): “The …
pandemic not only showed people why we need to be more careful with our environment, but also made a number
of people rethink various processes that can contribute to accelerating the pace of the world and move it toward
further technological a dvancement. The lockdown gave me more time to work more on a few personal aspects,
including my family.”
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outlier towards the center right of the triad, there also seems to be a connec-
tion with doing different things. We find ambiguous results for the stories
associated with ‘assign new meaning’: While many respondents reflected on
working from home and implementing health measures, employee safety,
team cooperation, and humanity were particularly emphasized and positively
grounded. In contrast, there are also some “conspiracy stories” related to the
pandemic in this sub-sample of stories13.
Figure6 – Doing different things, doing things differently,
or assigning new meaning
Individual Driving Forces
In the seventh triad (Figure 7), there are various clusters. However, the
strongest cluster is in the top corner (I acted because circumstances forced
me) with 24% of the data points. Two other clusters can be observed in the
right corner (I acted from a sense of responsibility) and the middle right part
of the triad. This cluster demonstrates a strong relationship between acting
out of circumstances and acting out of a sense of responsibility. Stories tagged
in the right corner reflect health measures and teleworking but can be differ-
entiated from the notion of forced circumstances as respondents highlight
13. For example: “It would take a lot more common sense to realize that the so-called "protective measures" are
first and foremost instruments of domination. Only in the second place it is about health. Merkel’s statement that
the "pandemic" would not be over until vaccines are used was treacherous. So, it was all about becoming Big
Pharma’s vicarious agent.”
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the need to care for their employees and assume responsibility for their orga-
nization14.
Figure7 – Acting because of circumstances,
sense of responsibility, or visionary impulse
Guiding Values and Principles
Looking at the (multiple) values and principles that have guided the
decisions reported in the story (see violin plots in Figure 8), some interest-
ing observations can be made. First, many participants claim that securing
the company’s existence/maintaining of assets has mostly guided their deci-
sions (as represented by the thickness of the diagram), whereas profit and
growth do not seem to have played a major role for most. Interestingly, almost
all participants indicated that humanity (in the sense of humaneness)/justice
has played a rather important part in their decisions. Sustainability—espe-
cially in the sense of ecological responsibility—presents a rather ambiguous
picture, suggesting that this value was not that important for current deci-
sions during the pandemic. The other three values of openness for novelty/
creativity, conformity with regulations/compliance, and transparency/
honesty have also been claimed to be rather important (to varying degrees
as shown in Figure 8). While not shown here, an interesting observation
can be made when looking at whether participants expect these values to be
14. For example, as reflected in the following narrative: “Responsibility of all for all takes precedence over the
freedom of us as individuals in such a crisis situation.”
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important in their future decisions: Whereas there are no significant changes
in most values, both profit/growth and sustainability/ecological responsibility
are skewed to the right, suggesting that both of these values are expected to
become more important again in the future.
Figure8 – Values and principles(violin plots)
Narrative of the Future
General Perception of the Future
Regarding the future, while participants were not asked to share a whole
story about their future expectations, they were asked to imagine the future
and self-signify their imagined futures (triads 11-13). A clear pattern emerges
in item 11 (Figure 9), which asks how participants perceive the future in
general: There are two strong emphases in both the right corner and the right
center of the triad. Hence, in relative terms (all three corners compared),
most respondents believe that the future can be shaped by acting in the pres-
ent (right corner, 28%). However, the second significant cluster in the right
center (29%) shows that there is a strong connection with the statement in
the top corner, that is, that the future is “open and unpredictable”. Another,
yet smaller, cluster can be identified in the top corner (19%), which under-
scores this connection.
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Figure9 – General perception of the future
Imagined determinants of personal future
In item 12 (Figure 10), participants were asked how they imagined that
their own future will be shaped. As in item 11 above, there is again a strong
emphasis on the center right part (24%) as well as the right corner (23%) of
the triad. Accordingly, in relation to all three corners, most respondents indi-
cated that their future will be shaped by human creativity and ingenuity. The
strong emphasis on the center right connects this view with the statement
of the top corner: the future will be shaped by chance and new, unforeseen
events. In addition, there is an outlier in the center of the triad with a skew
to the right that further emphasizes this connection.
Figure10 – Imagined determinants of personal future
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Expected Characteristics and Path
Dependence of Future Decisions
In the last triad (Figure 11) included in our study, various clusters can
be identified. The strongest emphasis is in the right corner. Hence, most
participants indicated (again in relative terms comparing all three corners)
that they imagine their future decision-making to be influenced by experi-
ences during the pandemic. Two further clusters can be identified in the
center (with a tendency towards the right center and the middle bottom part
of the triad). This shows a certain connection with the other two statements:
decision-making will be like before the pandemic (top); decision-making will
take new forms (left).
Figure11 – Shaping future decisions
The role of emotions
Finally, since emotions have generally been found to play an important
role in decision- and sensemaking processes (e.g., see Cristofaro, 2020, 2021,
2022; Ötsch, Graupe, 2020), we decided to take a closer look at the feel-
ings that participants reported having towards the story and if/how these
correspond to a position in a particular area of one of the triadic signifi-
ers. Although not shown here for the sake of brevity, we can, for example,
observe significant positive correlations between neutral feelings towards the
story and the top corner of triad 7 (i.e., “I acted … because circumstances
forced me”) and between the feelings towards the story and how the world
was perceived (triad 3). For triad 3, we observed significant positive correla-
tions between negative feelings and experiencing the world as uncertain and
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chaotic, and also between very positive feelings and perceiving the world as
full of opportunities.
Discussion
Our findings have multiple implications for research on managerial deci-
sion- and sensemaking and organizational change in times of uncertainty.
For example, triad 5 (Figure 5) identifies the neoliberal heuristic of the ratio-
nal, utility maximizing, and growth-oriented “homo economicus” as inappli-
cable and unhelpful from the agents’ perspective in uncertain decision situa-
tions. Rather, spontaneity and intuition seem to play the driving role in these
situations, as opposed to planning and calculation, or at least the latter are
challenged by the former – which is in line with the heuristics for unpredict-
able (complex and chaotic) decision situations as promoted by the Cynefin®
framework (e.g., Snowden, Rancati, 2021). At the same time, however, the
dominant strategy shared in the stories seemed to be the pursuit of rather
incremental adjustments, rather than using this unprecedented cesura for
radical change and rethinking the mission or purpose of the organization. In
other words, changing economic habits (including habits of thought) seems
to depend on an already perceived horizon of opportunities. Whereas all
agents act far beyond the simplistic homo economicus model, the sustain-
ability of these patterns depends on their general ability to productively read
and seize wicked problem situations.
Given that remote working is a ubiquitous decision-related issue, the
rather prominent “doing things differently” cluster for triad 6 (Figure 6) is
also rather unsurprising. However, in combination with the other clusters
to the right side and top of this triad, we can take this as evidence that the
“window of opportunity” for changing our ways of doing business towards
more sustainable ones – as claimed by sustainability transitions research-
ers (e.g., Bodenheimer, Leidenberger, 2020; Kanda, Kivimaa, 2020; Alva
Ferrari et al., 2023) – has not yet (fully) closed. That said, clear and strong
visions for this new future do not seem to exist (as indicated by Figure 7).
Most managers seem to have acted either because they felt compelled by
circumstances or by a sense of responsibility, rather than because of a strong
vision or imagined future. Combining these findings with the fact that both
profitability and growth as well as (environmental) sustainability/ecologi-
cal responsibility are expected to gain more importance again in the future
seems to indicate that there remains a strong belief that “green growth” is not
just possible but desirable, possibly reflecting the prevalence of the dominant
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techno-economic paradigm as described, among others, by Blok (2021) and
Joly (2017), and supported empirically by Bogner and Dahlke (2022).
In the three triads concerning the future, we observe a somewhat optimis-
tic view of agency and imaginative capacities, which could be read as evidence
for the awareness of decision makers that habits, rules, norms, institutions,
and memes more generally are indeed malleable and subject to what might be
called “systems entrepreneurship” (Schlaile et al., 2021b). However, given the
path dependence of cultural evolution and creativity from a memetic point
of view (Schlaile, 2021; Schlaile et al., 2024), this malleability may depend on
“the right circumstances” (or – as sustainability transitions researchers call
it – “landscape events”; e.g., Geels, 2002), that is, the intentional or uninten-
tional destabilization, exnovation, and collapse of previously stable institu-
tional arrangements combined with the selection pressure of a transbound-
ary crisis that forces us to adapt and thus shape the co-evolution of a new
organizational ecology of (more sustainable) memes.
Finally, although we did not explicitly focus our study on emotions or
affective states, the significant positive correlations between some of the feel-
ings towards the stories shared by participants and their perceptions of the
world as uncertain and chaotic (correlated with negative feelings) or as being
full of new opportunities (correlated with very positive feelings) highlight the
relevance of emotions and affective states of managers for decision- and sense-
making as also explained in detail, for example, by Cristofaro (2020, 2021,
2022). Moreover, these correlations point to the need for further in-depth
research on the role of emotions for managing under uncertainty and in the
context of sustainability transitions in general (see also Coops et al., in press;
Martiskainen, Sovacool, 2021).
Conclusion
In this paper, we address the exploratory research question:
“Which (memetic) patterns of meaning are reflected in managerial sensemak-
ing during the COVID-19 pandemic?” Using SenseMaker® as a survey tool,
we were able to uncover interesting patterns and clusters, revealing that in
uncertain, fluid decision environments, people are indeed gaining more and
more awareness of the fact that institutions and habits of thought (memes)
can be innovated (arguably reflecting a sense of transformative capability). At
the same time, however, the imaginative capacities to create powerful visions
of alternative and sustainable futures are not yet on par with the creative
power and ingenuity ascribed to human beings. Ongoing turmoil and global
challenges beyond the pandemic, such as the war in Ukraine, suggest that
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decision-making under conditions of uncertainty is likely to continue or even
increase for managers around the world. This development has the potential
to both support and, arguably, hinder sustainability transitions. Against this
backdrop, our results suggest that there are multiple avenues for translating (a)
experiences of agency (Figures 4, 6, 13), (b) ethical convictions (Figures 7, 8),
and (c) the perceived designability of the future (Figures 11, 12) into directed
action in the present. However, in order to actually guide future practice and
possibly transform it into new habits and institutions, each of these pathways
has to be addressed, from an agent-centered perspective, through respective
capacitation of managers in higher education or on-the-job training. In this
respect, approaches such as (a) action learning (Pedler, 2011), (b) transfor-
mative moral education (Joseph, Mikel, 2014), or (c) futures literacy (Miller,
2018) might prove to be crucial resources, among other “future skills” (Spiegel
et al., 2021).
Although this study is exploratory in nature, we must acknowledge
several limitations. First and foremost, in this article, we only focus on the
patterns and quantitative results of our SenseMaker® study. A more elabo-
rate and detailed picture of weak signals and narratives of change may be
revealed by delving deeper into the stories shared by the participants, for
example, by means of thematic or content analysis. Another limitation is
the scope (managers in Germany) and time frame of the study (which was,
however, also due to the nature of the funding). Potentially more fine-grained
and robust insights could have been gained by means of a more compara-
tive (e.g., cross-national) or longitudinal survey, or by repeating this survey
at a later point in time to examine the actual (evolutionary) dynamics of
these patterns. In this regard, the same caveat applies as to previous studies
on organizational memetics (Schlaile et al., 2021a): we have presented an
insightful, yet only static, snapshot of an evolving complex system. Moreover,
future research on sensemaking processes of decision makers under uncer-
tainty could also aim at using SenseMaker® in a more participatory way, for
example, already during the stage of framework/questionnaire development
together with participants (or as a potential evaluation tool for interven-
tions), as suggested by Bartels et al. (2019), Lindeman and McAusland (2020),
and others.
Despite these limitations, our findings paint a picture of sensemak-
ing during the pandemic that opens up several avenues for future research:
While it may not have been too surprising that those who have negative
feelings towards their story also tend to perceive the world as chaotic and
unpredictable, it would be interesting to investigate why founders tend to see
more opportunities rather than chaos. Does this perception of opportunities
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come from an entrepreneurial mindset rooted in systems entrepreneurial
schemata (Schlaile, Ehrenberger, 2016; Schlaile et al., 2021b), or is it simply
a result of the fact that founders usually tend to have more decision-making
power in their own organizations? Moreover, while the development of new
habits (Figure 4) during the crisis itself is rather unsurprising, it would be
important for future research to follow up on this question in order to inves-
tigate whether these new habits have taken root or if they are being pulled
towards the “old normal”. Finally, more research is also advisable on the
methodological implications and specifics of using the SenseMaker® soft-
ware platform in empirical research projects, especially since it is not a free
or open-source software environment.
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Appendix
Part1: SenseMaker® Framework
1) Present Narrative
1a. The Corona pandemic has put decision-makers like you in unprec-
edented situations. Imagine that after a long time of protective measures
against the virus you are meeting a business partner in person again. Which
example of a particular course of action you took during this time would you
tell them about? Please share your story below:
1b. Please give your story a title or #hashtag:
2. (MCQ0) My feelings towards my story are...
Very positive/Positive/Neutral/Negative/Very negative/N.A.
3. (Triad 1) In my story, I experienced the world...
as always/as uncertain and chaotic/full of new opportunitier/N.A.
4. (Triad 2) I have…
developed new habits/maintained habits/given up old habits/N.A.
5. (Triad 3) 5. I have made my decisions...
spontaneously and intuitively/after deep contemplation and reflection/
following logical and/or rational analysis or calculations/N.A.
6. (Triad 4) It was important to…
do different things/assign new meaning to my actions/do things differently/
N.A.
7. (Triad 5) I acted...
because circumstances forced me/based on visionary impulse/from a sense
of responsibility/N.A.
8. (Dyad 1) In my story, I focused only on...
economic success/crisis management/N.A.
9. (Stone 1) My decisions were guided by the following principles:
Sustainability & ecological responsibility/profit & growth/transpar-
ency & honesty/openness for novelty & creativity /securing the company’s
existence & maintenance of assets/conformity with regulations & compli-
ance/humanity & justice/N.A.
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2) Future Narrative
10. Please look ahead to a post-pandemic future. Describe your vision of
the future spontaneously with a title, keywords, or a #hashtag:
11. (Triad 6) In general, the future is...
open and unpredictable/determined by the past/malleable through acting
in the present/N.A.
12. (Triad 7) My own future will be shaped by...
randomness/chance & new unforeseen events/norms & rules/human
creativity & ingenuity/N.A.
13. (Triad 8) My future decision-making will...
be like before the pandemic/assume new forms/be influenced by experi-
ences during the pandemic/N.A.
14. (Stone 2) My future decisions will be guided by the following prin-
ciples:
Sustainability & ecological responsibility/profit & growth/transpar-
ency & honesty/openness for novelty & creativity/securing the company’s
existence & maintenance of assets/conformity with regulations & compli-
ance/humanity & justice/N.A.
3) Multiple Choice Questions
15. (MCQ1) Gender
16. (MCQ2) Age
17. (MCQ3) Degree of affectedness by the pandemic
18. (MCQ4) Type of organization
19. (MCQ5) Duration of employment
20. (MCQ6) Role in organization
21. (MCQ7) Founders of organization
Part2: Statistical Analysis(Example)
We performed Pearson’s goodness of fit test to test the independence of
categorical variables. We tested for independence for all variables mentioned
in the article and produced cobweb diagrams on this basis. Below, an exam-
ple of the variables “founder” and “I experienced the world” is presented.
M. P. Schlaile, V. Hector, L. Peters , L. Bä uerle , B. Smi th, A. Hilt, S . Graupe
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Null hypothesis H0: There is no relation between the variables “founder”
and “I experienced the world”
Alternate Hypothesis HA: There is a significant relation between the
variables “founder” and “I experienced the world”
Significance level (α) = 0.05
Data frequencies are considered as a table with I rows and J columns:
Rows correspond to triad “I experienced the world” (with categories center,
left (L), left-right (LR), left-top (LT), right (R), top (T), top-right (TR));
Columns correspond to MCQ “founder” (categories yes, no). We calculated
the expected frequencies (calculated by the row and sum totals of the table)
and compared every observed cell frequency with the estimated frequencies.
We performed the chi-squared test to test for independence (for a detailed
explanation, see Agresti, 2019; Upton, 2017).
Observed frequencies:
L T R LR LT TR Center
Yes 914 34 22 2 8 15
No 89 39 85 76 40 56 113
Expected frequencies:
L T R LR LT TR Center
Yes 16.93 9.1 6 20.56 16 .93 7. 2 6 11.06 22.11
No 81.07 43.84 98.44 81 .07 3 4 . 74 52.94 105.89
Chi-squared standardized residuals:
L T R LR LT TR Center
Yes -2.3159065 1.8430211 3.6389470 1.4805502 -2. 2242 55 7 -1.0690637 -1. 874 21 5 0
No 2.3159065 -1.8430211 -3.6389470 -1.4805502 2. 224255 7 1.0690637 1. 874 21 5 0
Chi-squared standardized residuals squared:
L T R LR LT TR Center
Yes 5.3634227 3.3967269 13.241935 4 2.19202 88 4.9473136 1.1428973 3.5126819
No 5.3634227 3.3967269 13. 241935 4 2.1920288 4.9473136 1.1428973 3.5126819
If the variables are truly independent, then approximately 95% of the
sij values (standardized residuals) will lie between the range (-2, +2) (or the
squared value < 4). Consequently, squared values greater than 4 represent
good chances of variation from independence and will result in lines drawn
in the cobweb diagram between the affected categories (the diagram repre-
sents the visual relationships of the residuals of the chi-squared test).
Innovation Amidst Turmoil
n° 43 – Journal of Innovation Economics & Management 2024/1 317
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We accept H0 if squared value < 4; we reject H0 if squared value > 4
p-value = 0.0001
p-value is smaller than significance level 0.05. We can reject H0 and the
results are statistically significant at the 5% level. There is a significant posi-
tive correlation between being a founder and the right corner of the triad;
significant negative correlations with T and LT.
M. P. Schlaile, V. Hector, L. Peters , L. Bä uerle , B. Smi th, A. Hilt, S . Graupe
318 Journal of Innovation Economics & Management 2024/1 – n°43
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