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Expanding the Distribution of Prosthechea jauana (Orchidaceae) in the Pantepui and Highlighting the Urgent Need for Conservation Strategies in the Region in Face of Climate Change

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Prosthechea jauana has been recognized as an orchid species endemic to the Venezuelan tepui. The first record of P. jauana in Brazil is presented here, also from a tepui in the Southern phytogeographical district of Pantepui in the Serra do Aracá, at the northern border of the Amazonas state. A detailed morphological description and images of the specimen are presented, as well as an updated distribution map, preliminary conservation status assessment, and taxonomic notes about the species. In addition, we provide species’ distribution models for P. jauana based on current and future bioclimatic data. Future projections suggest that the geographic distribution of P. jauana will likely be severely affected, with ~79% of its suitable habitat being reduced by 2041–2060 and ~92% by 2061–2080. Prosthechea jauana could represent a flag species and an example of how climate change may affect the endemic Pantepui flora.
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Citation: Vieira, T.L.; Barbosa-Silva,
R.G.; Acosta, A.L.; van den Berg, C.
Expanding the Distribution of
Prosthechea jauana (Orchidaceae) in the
Pantepui and Highlighting the Urgent
Need for Conservation Strategies in the
Region in Face of Climate Change.
Plants 2024,13, 222. https://doi.org/
10.3390/plants13020222
Academic Editor: Daniel Potter
Received: 11 December 2023
Revised: 8 January 2024
Accepted: 9 January 2024
Published: 13 January 2024
Copyright: © 2024 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
plants
Article
Expanding the Distribution of Prosthechea jauana (Orchidaceae) in
the Pantepui and Highlighting the Urgent Need for Conservation
Strategies in the Region in Face of Climate Change
Tiago L. Vieira 1,* , Rafael G. Barbosa-Silva 2,3 , AndréL. Acosta 2and Cássio van den Berg 4
1Harvard University Herbaria, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University,
22 Divinity Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
2Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Instituto Tecnológico Vale Desenvolvimento Sustentável,
Belém 66055-090, Pará, Brazil; rafa.g29@gmail.com (R.G.B.-S.); andreluisacosta@gmail.com (A.L.A.)
3Coordenacão Botânica, Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Belém 66077-830, Pará, Brazil
4Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana,
Feira de Santana 44036-246, Bahia, Brazil; vcassio@uefs.br
*Correspondence: tiagolvs@gmail.com
Abstract: Prosthechea jauana has been recognized as an orchid species endemic to the Venezuelan
tepui. The first record of P. jauana in Brazil is presented here, also from a tepui in the Southern
phytogeographical district of Pantepui in the Serra do Aracá, at the northern border of the Amazonas
state. A detailed morphological description and images of the specimen are presented, as well as an
updated distribution map, preliminary conservation status assessment, and taxonomic notes about
the species. In addition, we provide species’ distribution models for P. jauana based on current and
future bioclimatic data. Future projections suggest that the geographic distribution of P. jauana will
likely be severely affected, with ~79% of its suitable habitat being reduced by 2041–2060 and ~92% by
2061–2080. Prosthechea jauana could represent a flag species and an example of how climate change
may affect the endemic Pantepui flora.
Keywords: Amazonia; Anthropocene; Guiana Shield; Neotropics; species distribution; tepui
1. Introduction
Prosthechea jauana (Carnevali & I. Ramírez) W.E.Higgins is an orchid species that has
been recognized, to date, as being endemic to the Venezuelan Pantepui [
1
]. The Pantepui is
a biogeographical province with an assemblage of orographic ecosystems on the summit of
the flat-topped mountains across the Guiana Shield highlands (i.e., the tepuis), consisting of
a true sky island archipelago surrounded by lowland rainforest, and harbors a remarkably
rich and endemic biodiversity [
2
]. Orchidaceae is the richest family in the Pantepui vascular
flora, corresponding to ~10% (258 species) of the total flora. However, only 20% of the
listed orchid species are endemic to the Pantepui [
3
], and Prosthechea jauana is one of these.
The species was originally described based on materials from the tepuis of Meseta de
Jaua, in Venezuela [
1
]. It belongs to a group of morphologically related species including
Prosthechea aemula (Lindl.) W.E.Higgins, P. chimborazoensis (Schltr.) W.E.Higgins, P. fragrans
(Sw.) W.E.Higgins, P. sima (Dressler) W.E.Higgins, and P. venezuelana (Schltr.) W.E.Higgins,
also known as the P. fragrans complex [
4
]. The distinguishing morphological features of
this species group, when compared to other species of Prosthechea Knowles & Westcot., are
the one-leaved pseudobulbs, whitish flowers with acuminate sepals and petals, and convex
lip covered by purple lines along its extension.
Until now, Prosthechea jauana had only been found in the Venezuelan tepuis, including
the two neighboring mountains of the Meseta de Jaua formation [Cerro Jaua (type locality)
and Cerro Sarisariñama], in the Jaua-Duida district, state of Bolívar, and the Cerro Yaví, in
the Western district, state of Amazonas [
5
]. However, after an extensive revision of materials
Plants 2024,13, 222. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13020222 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/plants
Plants 2024,13, 222 2 of 12
for a broader taxonomic study of the Brazilian species of Prosthechea [
6
], a collection of
the species from Serra do Aracá(also a tepui), in the Brazilian state of Amazonas, was
recognized (Figure 1). The material was collected during a field expedition for the Vascular
Flora of Serra do Aracáproject [7] and had been misidentified as P. fragrans.
Plants 2024, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 12
flowers with acuminate sepals and petals, and convex lip covered by purple lines along
its extension.
Until now, Prosthechea jauana had only been found in the Venezuelan tepuis,
including the two neighboring mountains of the Meseta de Jaua formation [Cerro Jaua
(type locality) and Cerro Sarisariñama], in the Jaua-Duida district, state of Bolívar, and the
Cerro Yaví, in the Western district, state of Amazonas [5]. However, after an extensive
revision of materials for a broader taxonomic study of the Brazilian species of Prosthechea
[6], a collection of the species from Serra do Aracá (also a tepui), in the Brazilian state of
Amazonas, was recognized (Figure 1). The material was collected during a field
expedition for the Vascular Flora of Serra do Aracá project [7] and had been misidentified
as P. fragrans.
Figure 1. Distribution and occurrence of Prosthechea jauana. (A). Distribution map of P. jauana. The
elevation of known records is indicated according to the tepui of occurrence. High elevations in
reddish colors. Vouchers/literature records: Ayuán tepui (Dunsterville A99/A), Cerro Jaua
(Steyermark et al. 109478), Cerro Sarisariñama (Steyermark et al. 109159), Cerro Yaví (Michelangeli
166), and Serra do Aracá (Labiak et al. 5690, new record in Brazil). (B). Montane forest formations
on higher slopes of the Serra do Aracá. (C). Forest formations along water drainage areas in the
Serra do Aracá.
Accelerated biodiversity loss due to climate change is an ongoing and urgent issue,
which is ultimately related to human activities in the rapidly changing world of the
Anthropogenic era (i.e., Anthropocene) [8–10]. In this context, biological collections play
a key role in providing species records with a spatiotemporal dimension, and the public
availability of data has been rising exponentially after digitization efforts in the last few
decades, which turns these collections into a powerful source of data for conservation
planning and predicting the patterns and processes in future biodiversity faced by a
changing planet [11].
Despite the limited empirical evidence for climate-driven global plant extinctions to
date, studies have been pointing towards shifts in vegetation distribution, especially in
montane environments where elevation gradients tend to reflect very particular ecological
niches and, consequently, community assemblages [12–14]. Among global mountain
ecosystems threatened by climate change, the Pantepui region deserves special attention.
Figure 1. Distribution and occurrence of Prosthechea jauana. (A). Distribution map of P. jauana. The
elevation of known records is indicated according to the tepui of occurrence. High elevations in reddish
colors. Vouchers/literature records: Ayuán tepui (Dunsterville A99/A), Cerro Jaua (Steyermark et al.
109478), Cerro Sarisariñama (Steyermark et al. 109159), Cerro Yaví(Michelangeli 166), and Serra do
Aracá(Labiak et al. 5690, new record in Brazil). (B). Montane forest formations on higher slopes of the
Serra do Aracá. (C). Forest formations along water drainage areas in the Serra do Aracá.
Accelerated biodiversity loss due to climate change is an ongoing and urgent issue,
which is ultimately related to human activities in the rapidly changing world of the Anthro-
pogenic era (i.e., Anthropocene) [
8
10
]. In this context, biological collections play a key role
in providing species records with a spatiotemporal dimension, and the public availability
of data has been rising exponentially after digitization efforts in the last few decades,
which turns these collections into a powerful source of data for conservation planning and
predicting the patterns and processes in future biodiversity faced by a changing planet [
11
].
Despite the limited empirical evidence for climate-driven global plant extinctions to
date, studies have been pointing towards shifts in vegetation distribution, especially in
montane environments where elevation gradients tend to reflect very particular ecological
niches and, consequently, community assemblages [
12
14
]. Among global mountain
ecosystems threatened by climate change, the Pantepui region deserves special attention.
Recent studies with an emphasis on vascular plants have been quantitatively estimating
potential extinction risks induced by climate change in the region [
14
18
]. The projected
future scenarios are alarming, with temperature elevation and a decrease in precipitation
rates leading to habitat loss. Estimates suggest a potential habitat loss of 22–46% for the
vascular plant species endemic to the region [
14
]. Differently from other cone-shaped
mountains, the Pantepui present as flat-topped mountains, which directly restrict species’
upward migration following temperature elevation and ecological niche shift. The lack of
potential climatic refuges has profound implications for plant populations, especially those
of rare and endemic species. Many species are experiencing declines in population size
and distribution range as they struggle to adapt to changing environmental conditions.
Plants 2024,13, 222 3 of 12
Herein, we present this southward expansion of Prosthechea jauana geographic distribu-
tion in the Pantepui region, representing a new record in the Brazilian flora. A morphological
description of the material, images of the specimens with floral dissection details, taxonomic
notes, an updated distribution map, and a preliminary conservation status assessment are
provided. Additionally, we perform species distribution modeling (SDM) using bioclimatic
variables, comparing current conditions and ecologic preferences against future scenario
projections to discuss conservation implications.
2. Results
2.1. Taxonomy
Prosthechea jauana (Carnevali & I. Ramírez) W.E.Higgins, Phytologia 82(5): 378. 1997
[1998].
Encyclia jauana Carnevali & I. Ramírez, Lindleyana 9(1): 67. 1994.
Anacheilium
jauanum (Carnevali & I. Ramírez) Withner & P.A.Harding, Cattleyas and Relatives: Debat-
able Epidendrums: 96. 2004. TYPE: Venezuela. Bolívar: Meseta de Jaua, summit of Cerro
Jaua, portion SW, 1750–1800 m, 22–28 February 1974, J.A. Steyermark, C. Espinoza & C.
Brewer-Carias 109478 (Holotype: VEN!). Figure 2.
Epiphytic herb, rhizomatous, 5.7–16.5 cm tall. Rhizome 0.6–1.3 cm long. Pseudobulbs
1-leaved, fusiform, 1.5–4.5
×
0.4–1.0 cm, slightly laterally compressed. Leaves coriaceous,
narrowly oblong to narrowly elliptic, 3.2–10.5
×
1.0–2.2 cm, obtuse. Inflorescence growing
from mature pseudobulb, 6.0–8.3 cm long, 2–5-flowered; spathe 1.1–2.5 cm long. Flowers
non-resupinate, somewhat fleshy; pedicellate ovary 1.0–1.5 cm long; sepals creamy white,
dorsal narrowly elliptic, 1.9–2.1
×
0.4–0.6 cm, acute, laterals lanceolate to narrowly elliptic,
1.8–2.1
×
0.4–0.5 cm, acute; petals creamy white, elliptic, 1.7–1.9
×
0.4–0.6 cm, acuminate.
Labellum entire, clawed, adnate to the column for ca. 3 mm, the free portion white with
longitudinal vinaceous lines throughout its length, concave in its natural position, ovate
when flattened, 1.2–1.5
×
1.1–1.3 cm, acuminate; callus pad-like, oblong, ca. 5.0
×
2.0 mm,
depressed at the apex, glabrescent. Column subclavate, 8.0–8.5
×
3.0–4.0 mm; clinandrium
3-toothed, the teeth are subequal, ca. 1 mm long, the midtooth ligulate and bearing a fleshy
knob-like dorsal appendage; anther capsule subglobose, ca. 2.0
×
2.0 mm; pollinia, laterally
flattened. Capsule not seen.
Specimens examined: Brazil. Amazonas: Barcelos, Parque Estadual da Serra do
Aracá, Eldorado, waterfalls trail towards the summit, 1000–1150 m, 22 April 2014, Labiak
et al. 5690 (RB). Venezuela. Amazonas: Cerro Yaví, 2100 m, 24 February 1995, Michelangeli
166 (BH!, VEN!). Bolívar: Meseta de Jaua, Cerro Sarisariñama, summit, 1400 m, 16–18
February 1974, Steyermark et al. 109159 (VEN!); ibid., Cerro Sarisariñama, February 1974,
fl. in cult. May 1974, Dunsterville and Dunsterville 1316 (AMES!, line drawing); Meseta
de Jaua, Cerro Jaua, summit of cerro, in an area near a tributary of the Marajano River,
February 1974, fl. in cult. April 1974, Dunsterville and Dunsterville s.n. (VEN 96407!).
Etymology: The epithet refers to the species type’s locality, which is the Meseta de
Jaua, in Bolívar State, Venezuela.
Distribution and habitat: Endemic to the Pantepui in southern Venezuela and the
northern border of Brazil. So far, Prosthechea jauana has been found on Cerro Yaví, Meseta
de Jaua, and Serra do Aracá. It occurs in montane forest formations on higher slopes (above
1000 m) and the shrubby vegetation on the flat tops of the tepuis, usually as an epiphyte
and occasionally as a litophyte. The specimens’ labels usually refer to the forophytes as
small shrubs, and only a paratype from Cerro Sarisariñama specifies the forophytes as
small trees of Bonnetia sp.
Phenology: Specimens with flowers were collected in February and April.
Plants 2024,13, 222 4 of 12
Plants 2024, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 12
Figure 2. Prosthechea jauana, a new record in the Brazilian flora. Digital plate based on the collection
Labiak et al. 5690 (RB). (A,B). Habit of the two specimens present on the sheet. (C). Spathe detail.
(D). Inflorescence detail, highlighting flower colors (colored photography of the specimen presented
in (A)). (E). Perianth dissection (flower picked of specimen (B)). (F). Callus detail. (G,H). Ventral
and lateral view of the column and ovary with pedicel, respectively. (I). Anther cap detail. Edited
by T.L.V.
Etymology: The epithet refers to the species type’s locality, which is the Meseta de
Jaua, in Bolívar State, Venezuela.
Distribution and habitat: Endemic to the Pantepui in southern Venezuela and the
northern border of Brazil. So far, Prosthechea jauana has been found on Cerro Yaví, Meseta
de Jaua, and Serra do Aracá. It occurs in montane forest formations on higher slopes
(above 1000 m) and the shrubby vegetation on the flat tops of the tepuis, usually as an
epiphyte and occasionally as a litophyte. The specimens’ labels usually refer to the
Figure 2. Prosthechea jauana, a new record in the Brazilian flora. Digital plate based on the collection
Labiak et al. 5690 (RB). (A,B). Habit of the two specimens present on the sheet. (C). Spathe detail.
(D). Inflorescence detail, highlighting flower colors (colored photography of the specimen presented
in (A)). (E). Perianth dissection (flower picked of specimen (B)). (F). Callus detail. (G,H). Ventral and
lateral view of the column and ovary with pedicel, respectively. (I). Anther cap detail. Edited by T.L.V.
Conservation status: Based on the known distribution records of the species, its
estimated EOO and AOO values are 101,148 km
2
and 20 km
2
, respectively, which would
place the species into the Endangered (EN) category under criteria B2. However, all known
occurrence locations are within protected areas in the respective countries, including the
Serra do AracáState Park in Brazil, the Caura National Park, Canaima National Park, and
the Cerro YavíNatural Monument in Venezuela. Nevertheless, the Serra do Aracáregion
has been threatened in the past, and there is still pressure from mining activities in the
area [
7
]. Urgent actions are needed to address the damage caused by the mining arc in
Plants 2024,13, 222 5 of 12
the Pantepui region, which has impacted areas such as the Canaima National Park [
19
,
20
],
close to some of the known P. jauana populations. In addition, the results of our distribution
modeling analysis toward future bioclimatic conditions suggest potential threats from
climate change to populations across the tepuis (see Species Distribution Modeling topic
ahead in the results section).
Considering that there is no empiric data available about population reduction, gen-
eration length, decline in habitat quality, or populational fluctuation to assess the species
against most of the required criteria and subcriteria (A, B, C and E), but given the informa-
tion on plausible future threats, and that the current known occurrences are
5, we are
assessing the species as Vulnerable (VU) following criteria D2. In this case, future threats
can drive the taxon into a higher risk category, which would lead to moving the species
into more critical categories.
Taxonomic Notes: Prosthechea jauana is related to the P. fragrans complex [
4
], and is
morphologically similar to P. aemula and P. fragrans itself, especially the flowers. However,
the three species may be readily distinguished based on vegetative traits, ecological aspects,
and geographic distribution. Prosthechea aemula is widely distributed across the Neotropical
region, occurring in warm lowland habitats such as rainforests (usually from sea-level to
600 m), and presents as remarkable character its inflorescences always developing from
still immature pseudobulbs (the new sympodium blooms while yet a shoot, generally).
Conversely, the inflorescences of P. fragrans and P. jauana develop from completely mature
pseudobulbs. Regarding geographic distribution, P. fragrans is also a warm lowland habitat
species, distributed throughout the West Indies and Central America [
21
], whereas P. jauana
is endemic to the Pantepui province (above 1000 m) in Brazil and Venezuela, on the western
Guiana Shield. Furthermore, P. fragrans plants are robust and large, having large fusiform
pseudobulbs (3.5–15.0 cm long) and long spathes (up to 5 cm long), whereas P. jauana plants
are smaller, with ovoid to fusiform, shorter pseudobulbs (2.2–4.5 cm long) and shorter
spathes (up to 2.5 cm long). Additionally, identification keys for this set of species may be
found in previous taxonomic contributions [
1
,
5
], where the authors also mention further
cryptic floral traits which separate P. jauana from P. aemula and P. fragrans, such as the
stigmatic surface, which is ovate-cordate in the former and transversally pandurate in the
other two.
2.2. Species Distribution Modeling
The MaxEnt modeling predicted a slightly larger area than the current known distri-
bution of P. jauana (Figure 3A). However, this is not entirely unexpected considering that
the predicted suitable habitats are contiguous with the current distribution and represent
similar mountain habitats where the species currently occur. The average AUC and the
TSS values of the model were 0.91 and 0.65, respectively, indicating the good predictive
performance of our model. Out of the five bioclimatic variables, mean annual temperature
(Bio 1) and precipitation in the coldest quarter (Bio 19) had the strongest effect on the
distribution of P. jauana (Appendix A; Table A1). Projecting the model into future climate
scenarios revealed a significant loss in suitable habitats for P. jauana, with a reduction
in area of ~79% by 2041–2060 and ~92% by 2061–2080 (Figure 3B–E). The future climate
refugia of the species is observed to be in part of the Venezuelan Pantepui, and the suitable
habitats in Brazil (including Serra do Aracá, the first record of the species in the country
presented in this paper) are projected to experience a rapid reduction in the future.
Plants 2024,13, 222 6 of 12
Plants 2024, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 12
refugia of the species is observed to be in part of the Venezuelan Pantepui, and the suitable
habitats in Brazil (including Serra do Aracá, the first record of the species in the country
presented in this paper) are projected to experience a rapid reduction in the future.
Figure 3. Modelled distribution of Prosthechea jauana for current and future projected bioclimatic
data using MaxEnt. (A). Model for current bioclimatic data. (B). Model for future projected biocli-
matic data in 2041–2060. (C). Model for future projected bioclimatic data in 2061–2080. (D,E). Range
contraction of the suitable habitat area on the 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 models compared to the
current conditions model, respectively.
Figure 3. Modelled distribution of Prosthechea jauana for current and future projected bioclimatic data
using MaxEnt. (A). Model for current bioclimatic data. (B). Model for future projected bioclimatic
data in 2041–2060. (C). Model for future projected bioclimatic data in 2061–2080. (D,E). Range
contraction of the suitable habitat area on the 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 models compared to the
current conditions model, respectively.
3. Discussion
3.1. A Species Widely Distributed throughout a Sky Island Archipelago
Although Prosthechea jauana has been officially found (deposited voucher specimens)
only on the Cerro Yaví, Meseta de Jaua (including Cerro Sarisariñama), and the Serra do Aracá,
Plants 2024,13, 222 7 of 12
there is a record from the Auyán tepui, Dunsterville A99/A, cited as Epidendrum fragrans by
Schweinfurth in Steyermark [
22
], which is also likely to be Prosthechea jauana (we used this
record in our SDM). However, we could not find any voucher material (specimen or drawing)
from the record to confirm its taxonomic identity. Unfortunately, the Dunsterville’s had a very
peculiar system of annotations and botanical collections, where they frequently neglected
common species. In a publication reporting the field expedition to Meseta de Jaua [
23
], they
refer to P. jauana as an odd-looking” and “depauperate form” of Epidendrum fragrans, which
may explain why the annotation of the record Dunsterville A99/A in Auyán tepui has not a
proper collection or associated illustration.
Nevertheless, considering the scarcity of records for the species combined with how
spread across the Pantepui the known records are, it is presumable that P. jauana may occur
in other tepuis, which is suggested in our SDM based on current bioclimatic conditions
(Figure 3A). The model predicts occurrence of P. jauana in all Pantepui phytogeographical
districts [
24
]. Therefore, it should be only matter of time and field work effort in this remote
zone before new records of the species become reported from other tepuis.
3.2. The Relevance of Taxon-Focused Studies
The taxonomic complexity factor associated with the Prosthechea fragrans complex
becomes evident as other orchid taxonomists also misidentified the material [Labiak et al.
5690 (RB)] as P. fragrans, which was followed and later used by Barbosa-Silva et al. [
7
]. Thus,
the correct taxonomic identity of the material presented here, leading to the recognition of
a further new record in the Brazilian flora and the southwards expansion of the species’
distribution, highlights the relevance of taxon-focused monograph studies on clarifying
species delimitation and their geographic distribution. Similar recent efforts have also
expanded the distribution of other orchid species in the Pantepui [
25
,
26
], and new species
have been described as well [27].
3.3. Implications of Climate Change over a Pantepui Endemic Orchid
The projected future loss of suitable habitat for P. jauana, as revealed in the model,
raises significant concerns in the face of impending climate change. The stark reduction in
suitable habitat of nearly 78% by 2041–2060 and a staggering 91% by 2061–2080 underscore
the urgency of addressing the impact of climate change on the species’ distribution. The
loss of plant populations in the Pantepui is a reality for many endemic lineages [
14
] and
P. jauana is one of many more species that may be severely affected by this scenario, as
shown in the dramatic reduction in suitable habitats until 2080 according to our SDM’s
future projection. In this sense, the lack of climatic refuges for plants is a serious issue
that threatens many species. As climate change intensifies, traditional refuges in the
Pantepui are becoming increasingly obsolete, and plant populations may struggle to adapt
to changing conditions [18].
The threat to or loss of plant diversity has a ripple effect throughout the ecosystem,
impacting several species that rely on these plants for shelter or as a host, altering the bal-
ance of ecological relationships [
28
]. Epiphytic plants are highly dependent on trees since
they usually depend on a phorophyte for their establishment. However, the phorophytes
are also often threatened by climate change and this can drive the loss of epiphyte diver-
sity [
29
,
30
]. Addressing this problem will require a coordinated effort by conservationists,
policymakers, and scientists to identify and protect habitats that may serve as refuges.
In an evaluation of the impacts of climate change over areas of global biodiversity
importance, Manes et al. [
31
] suggest overall warming level thresholds based on IPCC
data [
32
], where an increase in global surface air temperature (Gsat) to 1.5
C above pre-
industrial levels would have a relatively mild impact on biodiversity; 1.5–2
C would
have a moderate impact; 2–3
C would have a high impact; and >3
C is considered to
have a very high impact on biodiversity. After their meta-analysis, the authors were able
to conclude that endemic species will be more severely affected by climate change than
Plants 2024,13, 222 8 of 12
introduced or non-endemic native species, especially those inhabiting island and mountain
regions, where the extinction risk could be over six times higher than in mainland regions.
Conservation policies should consider prioritizing epiphytic plants from Pantepui.
While many tepuis are currently within protected areas [
24
], global climate change poses a
significant threat to these species in mountain ecosystems, suggesting that the protection of
these areas alone may not be enough for their conservation [
33
]. Hence, efforts to conserve
these species from Pantepui should be launched, planned, and realized in botanical gardens,
germplasm banks, and other institutions offering ex situ conservation. Additionally, further
efforts to better understand the ecology and biology of P. jauana may contribute to effective
conservation strategies. Recent advances have been made regarding the effect of soil on
plant composition in tepuis [
16
,
34
]; however, further progress is needed to understand the
effects on epiphyte communities in the Pantepui region.
4. Materials and Methods
4.1. Study of Herbarium Materials
The new record was identified when revising the RB collection, but other relevant
herbaria for the Pantepui and Amazonian flora were revised as well, such as AMES, BH,
F, IAN, INPA, MG, MO, NY, US, and VEN. The morphological study of the specimens
was carried out using a stereomicroscope and standard measurement tools. Specimens
analyzed through high resolution images were measured using ImageJ version 1.51w [
35
].
A flower of the new record specimen was rehydrated, dissected, and mounted on a paper
card for a detailed morphological description. All measurements of vegetative organs were
based on dried material, except the flowers, which were rehydrated. The morphological
terminology followed Radford et al. [36], Dressler [37], and Beentje [38].
Records without geographic coordinates data had their locality coordinates recovered
using Google Earth Pro version 7.3.6 after the analysis of information present on the
specimens’ labels. The distribution map (Figure 1) was produced using ArcGIS version
10.5 [
39
]. Preliminary conservation assessment followed the criteria and guidelines of
the IUCN [
40
,
41
]. The extent of occurrence (EOO) and area of occurrence (AOO) were
estimated using GeoCAT (http://geocat.kew.org/, accessed on 2 November 2023) [
42
],
based on geographic data of the known occurrences. For the AOO estimation, a 2 km
2
grid
cell was adopted as recommended by IUCN [41].
4.2. Species Distribution Modeling
The maximum entropy (Maxent) approach is one of the most widely used ecological
niche modeling tools for predicting species distributions [
43
46
]. Maxent is part of the
machine learning method family, modeling potential species’ distribution using a set of
environmental variables and presence-only georeferenced data [
47
]. It has been shown
to outperform other algorithms, even when applied to small datasets [
48
,
49
], becoming
one of the most popular methods used today. We implemented Maxent using version
3.4.4 of the software [
50
], with default settings. We used the minimum bounding rectangle
covering all the occurrence points plus nearly 200 km buffer around the bounding rectangle
to demarcate the modeling area for our analyses. Although this may represent an arbitrary
decision prior to the analysis, it was based on the notably reduced sample size, looking to
optimize the model’s performance. Nevertheless, our modeling area includes all mountain
ranges that are contiguous with the current known distribution of P. jauana and may reflect
locations where the species might have potential populations.
Due to the very small number of presence records (only 5 occurrence points), we used
the jackknife (‘leave-one-out’) technique to model the distribution of P. jauana, an approach
that has been found to be ideal for modeling species with few presence records [
51
]. Each
observed locality was removed from the data set once, and a model was built using
the remaining localities, yielding models equal to the total number of presence records
(
5 models
in our case). The average of all five models was used to obtain the final prediction.
Each model’s goodness-of-fit was evaluated using the average value of the area under the
Plants 2024,13, 222 9 of 12
receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) estimated from
the five models. AUC values less than 0.7 indicate poor model performance, AUC values
between 0.7 and 0.9 indicate moderate model performance, and AUC values greater than
0.9 indicate excellent model performance. Similarly, TSS values of 0.2–0.5 indicate a poor
model, 0.6–0.8 indicate a good model, and greater than 0.8 indicate an excellent model [
52
].
We used ‘maximize test sensitivity plus specificity’ as a threshold criterion to obtain binary
predictions from the model. The change in suitable habitats was calculated by overlaying
the predicted future distribution over the predicted current distribution in ArcGIS 10.5.
Environmental data (19 bioclimatic variables) were obtained from the WorldClim
database [
53
] at the spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. However, we did not use all
19 variables
for building models due to multicollinearity issues, since it may violate statis-
tical assumptions and influence model predictions [
54
]. We removed strongly correlated
(correlation coefficient > 0.7; or <
0.7) variables and retained biologically meaningful vari-
ables that had relatively high contribution in preliminary analysis. The resulting variable
sets included 5 predictors (Appendix A; Table A1). In order to evaluate the change in future
suitable habitat for P. jauana, we projected the model into future bioclimatic conditions. We
obtained bioclimatic data for future conditions also from the WorldClim database, at the
spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds, for two time periods: 2041–2060 and 2061–2080, based
on the MIROC6 global climate model and SSP585 shared socio-economic pathway [55].
5. Conclusions
Prosthechea jauana is a poorly known orchid species endemic to the Pantepui region of
the Guiana Shield Highlands, with just a few materials deposited in biological collections.
The recent discovery of P. jauana in Serra do Aracá, a tepui on the northern border of
the Brazilian Amazon, previously unreported in the literature, highlights the importance
of continued exploration and research in the region, as well as the relevance of group-
focused taxonomic studies. Nevertheless, this discovery also raises concerns about the
conservation status of the species and the Pantepui endemic flora in the climatic future.
SDM of future bioclimatic scenarios suggests a dramatic reduction in suitable areas for the
species’ occurrence.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, T.L.V. and R.G.B.-S.; methodology, T.L.V.; software, A.L.A.;
validation, T.L.V. and A.L.A.; investigation, T.L.V. and R.G.B.-S.; data curation, T.L.V.; writing—original
draft preparation, T.L.V.; writing—review and editing, R.G.B.-S. and C.v.d.B.; supervision, C.v.d.B.;
project administration, T.L.V. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This work was supported by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e
Tecnológico (grant 473244/2017-4).
Data Availability Statement: All generated data are included in this article.
Acknowledgments: T.L.V. thanks Harvard University Herbaria for the HUH postdoctoral Fellowship
granted. R.G.B.-S. thanks the grants from EUROFINS, FUNBIO, HUMANIZE, Idea Wild, International
Association for Plant Taxonomy, Neotropical Grassland Conservancy, The Linnean Society of London,
and The Systematics Association. C.v.d.B. thanks Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e
Tecnológico (scholarship Pq-1A 307670/2022-8). The authors thank Gustavo Romero for the valuable
discussions on the taxonomy of Prosthechea jauana and its geographic distribution, the bibliography
of Orchidaceae in the Pantepui province, as well as on the whereabouts of Dunsterville’s collections
and drawings. The authors thank Nawal Shrestha for his help and assistance throughout the entire
process of SDM data analyses. The authors also thank Germán Carnevalli for discussing the taxonomic
identity of the new record, and Raquel Negrão for bringing valuable insights into the conservation
assessment, as well as to Charles C. Davis for discussing and providing valuable suggestions on
the manuscript. The authors thank the REFLORA project for providing a high-resolution image of the
new record material, utilized to develop the digital plate presented. Finally, the authors thank Gustavo
Miranda Montealegre for assisting and providing valuable suggestions on the digital plate edition.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Plants 2024,13, 222 10 of 12
Appendix A
Table A1. Bioclimatic variables used and their relative contribution to generating the species’ distri-
bution model for Prosthechea jauana.
Bioclimatic Variable Rate of Contribution (%)
Mean annual temperature (Bio 1) 75.9
Temperature seasonality (Bio 4) 3.7
Annual range of temperature (Bio 7) 2.2
Annual precipitation (Bio 12) 0.4
Precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19) 17.8
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