Content uploaded by Rachel Ambalu
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Rachel Ambalu on Jan 10, 2024
Content may be subject to copyright.
Over 4 million people have lost their lives worldwide, and many
more their livelihoods as a result of the novel coronavirus
pandemic. COVID-19, and the subsequent measures to contain
it, has resulted in one of the worst global economic shocks in
history. The World Bank esmated in June 2020 that up to 150
million people will be pushed into extreme poverty by the end of
2021, the majority of which will be in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
With weak health systems, and the slow roll-out of vaccines,
early projecons indicated that it would take SSA unl 2025 to
reach levels of pre-COVID per capita income.
Our inial research into the short-term impact of the virus in
western Kenya showed a sharp drop in income and expenditures
in rural communies. Since December 2019, we had been vising
households on a weekly basis to collect detailed informaon
on each adult’s nancial transacons in the past seven days,
allowing for an analysis of pre- and post-COVID-19 trends, unlike
studies that were iniated in response to the pandemic.
In this paper, we follow up that research with analysis
on the longer-term impact of COVID-19 up to the end of
November 2020. These new gures provide insights into
coping mechanisms over an extended period. Our work has
implicaons for policy makers, who seek to balance protecng
the health of the populaon by containing the spread of the
virus with implemenng policies to protect people’s economic
wellbeing. As of 28 of November 2020, there were 83,618 total
conrmed cases, 1,469 deaths, and 26,805 acve cases in Kenya.
The Amsterdam Instute for Global Health and Development
(AIGHD) and the African Populaon and Health Research Center
(APHRC) tracked a sample of 330 households in Western Kenya.
These households were target populaons of a free public care
pilot in Kisumu and a subsidized health insurance program
r – First case detected in Kenya
– Suspension of all public gatherings, meengs, religious
crusades games events
– Schools closures, homeworking. Internaonal ights
suspended, bars and restaurants closed.
– All markets closed Kisumu
– Naonwide curfew enforced
– President announced 100% tax relief to Kenyans earning
KSh 24,000 (US$228) and below, KSh 10 billion (US$95 million) to
vulnerable groups including the elderly and orphans
– Travel restricons put in place in most aected areas, including
Nairobi.
– Paral reopening of eateries
– Kenyaa promised a Sh53.7 billion smulus package in
order to help Kenyans.
– Further restricons due to worsening crisis. Kakamega and
Kisumu declared ‘hotspot zones’. 7pm to 4am curfew. Non-food and
livestock markets suspended 30 days.
– Naonwide curfew extended, closure of bars and nightclubs
for 30 days.
– Curfew shied to 11pm to 4am. Bars and restaurants open
but must close by 10pm. Paral reopening of economy.
– Schools reopen starng with examinaon classes, i.e., Grade
4, Class 8, and Form 4 students.
1
2
3
4
5
6
(i-PUSH) in Kakamega, the laer being implemented by Amref
Health Africa and PharmAccess Foundaon from September
2020.
Enumerators visited the households every week to collect (in
10–15-minute interviews) a detailed record of each adult’s
nancial transacons in the past week (income, expenditures,
gis, loans, remiances, and savings – including savings in
informal groups). Since the new COVID-19 migaon measures
had been put in place, data collecon shied from in-person
interviews to phone interviews, conducted by the same, trusted
enumerators.
Our longitudinal and diaries data provide detailed informaon
on pre-COVID-19 trends in income and consumpon in
our sample of rural, low-income households. The results
from the study hence allow for a granular, near real-me
analysis of the immediate impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on
households’ economic wellbeing and the strategies they used
to cope with the nancial consequences of the pandemic.
As pre-COVID-19 period, we take the weeks between early
February and mid- March 2020, when the rst case was
detected, and the rst measures were taken in Kenya.
Income from work remained below pre-COVID-19 levels in
the long-term as can be seen in Figure 1. There was an inial
drop immediately aer the lockdown, April to mid-June,
where the average cash inow fell by around 25%. A short
recovery followed which lasted ll mid-August and aer that,
incomes fell again. The rst drop in income was larger than
the second. Pre-COVID-19 diary studies in Kenya show that
the drops are not down to seasonal uctuaons, and there
were no major climac events recorded, so there must be
another explanaon as to why incomes fell so dramacally.
To what extent then can these long-term losses be related to
the COVID-19 pandemic and virus containment measures?
Examinaon of the regional mobility data in Figure 2 points
towards a direct relaonship between the level of movement
within a community and the drop in income. In Figure 2, we
see that as mobility decreased, so did the income (Figure
1). This suggests that the rst drop in cash ow could be
the result of the lockdown measures introduced by the
government to contain the virus, especially as there were no
reported cases in the two counes at that me. And in Figure
3, we see that the rise in COVID-19 cases in Kenya, the rst
wave which peaked in late July-early August, preceded the
second fall in income. Here again, curfews were reinstated
aer a paral reopening of the economy (see meline).
The households in our study area countered the evidently
negave eects of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent
containment measures in a number of ways. When we looked
closer at the nature of the work, we saw a shi from informal
business and salaried income, which made up 80.8% of
employment-related cash inow pre-COVID-19, towards casual
income from mid-August onwards. However, the increase in
casual income, which is small, did not fully make up for the
(second) drop in business and salaried income. Separately, we
also saw the proporon of income from farming (comprising
5.5% of total household income pre-COVID-19) took a hit in
the months aer the virus arrived in Kenya but returned to pre-
COVID-19 levels by late August.
In spite of the hardship, we found that households generally
did not increase their income from other sources than work.
Figure 1: Income from work in rural Kakamega and Kisumu
households.
For example, they did not withdraw more savings as savings
withdrawals were 10.2% lower post-covid (p < .10). The
households did not sell livestock or harvest in stock as income
from farming was 17.2% less post-covid (p<.05), nor did they
borrow increased amounts as money borrowed decreased with
9.2% post-covid (not signicant). Instead, households reduced
their outgoings. They deposited 13.7% less savings post-
COVID-19 (p<.01), gave less social support to others by reducing
gis given to other households by 34% (p<.01) and postponed
their own loan repayments to others by 14.2% (p<.10). Thus,
informal risk-sharing and social support between households
decreased.
Figure 2: Mobility paerns in Kakamega and Kisumu
County, Kenya, created with aggregated, anonymized
sets of data from users who have turned on the Locaon
History seng, which is o by default. Source: Google
Figure 3: Number of COVID-19 cases in 2020. Source:
World Health Organisaon
Expenditures on food were fraconally lower than pre-
COVID-19 levels over the longer-term but remained steady
at around KSH900 per week. Meanwhile, expenditures on
educaon dropped substanally below the pre-COVID-19
levels of KSH176, and never really recovered unl the end of
November. This might partly be explained by the phased return
to school, with the rst groups resuming classes on 12 October.
Schools fully re-opened in January 2021. Though transportaon
expenditure decreased signicantly in the short-term, which
can possibly be explained by the stringent lockdown in April,
they rose to above pre-COVID-19 levels from August through
to the end of November when measures were gently eased.
Despite the dramac fall in income in the months following the
arrival of COVID-19 in Kenya, our ndings indicate that aer
eight months, incomes and expenditures in rural communies
in the west of the country were close to pre-COVID-19 levels.
This is in line with updated projecons from the World Bank,
with recent analysis showing that SSA will recover economically
much earlier than previously ancipated (though that doesn’t
necessarily mean that poverty levels will improve). There is
a resilience within rural Kenyan communies to deal with the
pandemic, despite widespread fears that African economies
would not be able to cope with such catastrophic events.
Much of the sng of the economic crisis was taken out through
naonal and internaonal relief packages. For the informal
sector, who don’t benet from tax relief, cash transfers were
parcularly popular. Direct support programs, such as the Inua
Jamii program, which distributed KSH 8,000 to the elderly,
orphans, and other vulnerable populaons during the week of
20 April eased the food insecurity and economic hardship. In
May 2020, the World Bank also approved $1 billion to the Kenyan
government for budgetary support. Lockdowns too appear to
have had an impact on the containment of the virus, though
there will need to be a discussion around how stringent curfews
ought to be. Many have quesoned the tough enforcement
of the restricons, which threatened to undermine the ght
against the disease. Indeed, our data suggests that overly
curbing mobility leads to dramac drops in income-generaon.
By the end of November, Kakamega had reported 848 cases
and 27 deaths, whilst Kisumu had reported 1,915 cases and 14
deaths, though these numbers are likely to be underesmaons
due to lack of resources for tesng. The full economic impact
of the novel coronavirus pandemic might not be fully evident
in this study period alone but may manifest itself also through
morbidity due to reduced access to health care for non-COVID-19
condions, or mental health issues caused by the pandemic. Our
ongoing work invesgates gender dierences in risk-coping and
resilience, the indirect health impacts of COVID-19 (both negave
and posive) as well as analyzes mental health consequences
(fear of the epidemic, nancial stress). This could have knock-on
eects on adults’ producvity, hence, their ability to contribute
to the economy much further down the line. Finally, the school
closures have undermined children’s educaonal aainment
potenal, reinforcing the intergeneraonal cycle of poverty.
Conclusion
We observe substanal decreases in income in the short-term
as a result of the virus containment measures. It recovers in
the long-term, though remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.
Households hold on to their food consumpon levels throughout
the study period, partly facilitated through the reducon of
spending on educaon, transportaon, and healthcare. Coping
mechanisms include giving less through gis and remiances, a
crucial part of the economy and an important element that binds
a community. Despite a slightly more posive economic outlook
than a year ago, the impact of COVID-19 on school aainment
potenal and producvity remains to be seen.
Richard de Groot, PhD
Wendy Janssens, PhD
Menno Pradhan, PhD
This work is funded by the Dutch Naonal Postcode Loery, the
Joep Lange Instute, and the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Aairs
through the Health Insurance Fund. The research team is highly
grateful for the funder, study parcipants and the eld team as
well as all stakeholders.
Contact informaon: info@aighd.org
Commissioned by:
1. World Health Organisaon. COVID-19 Dashboard. Accessed on: 2
September 2021
2. World Bank. Global Economic Prospects 2020. Washington, DC.
World Bank. 2020.
3. World Bank. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020: Reversals of
Fortune. Washington, DC. World Bank. 2020.
4. Internaonal Monetary Fund. Sub-Saharan Africa: navigang
a long pandemic. Washington, DC. Internaonal Monetary
Fund.2021
5. Janssens W, Pradhan M, de Groot R, Sidze E, Donfouet HPP,
Abajobir A. The short-term economic eects of COVID-19 on
low-income households in rural Kenya: An analysis using weekly
nancial household data. World Development. 2021 Feb; 138:1-
8. 105280.
6. World Health Organisaon. COVID-19 Dashboard. Accessed on: 2
September 2021
7. Mahler, D. G. et al. Updated esmates of the impact of COVID-19
on global poverty: Turning the corner on the pandemic in 2021?
Washington, DC. World Bank. 2021.
8. The Economist. Africa is woefully ill-equipped to cope with
covid-19. The Economist. UK. 2020.
9. World Bank. World Bank Approves $1 Billion Financing for
Kenya, to Address COVID-19 Financing Gap and Support Kenya’s
Economy. Washington, DC. World Bank. 2020.
10. Otsieno Namwaya. Kenya Police Abuses Could Undermine
Coronavirus Fight. Human Rights Watch. 2020.
11. Oce for Coordinaon of Humanitarian Aairs. Kenya COVID-19
operaons dashboard. Accessed on: 2 September 2021
Amanual Abajobir, PhD
Estelle Sidze, PhD
Caroline Wainaina, MPH
Anne Njeri, BSc
Daniel Maina, MSc
8
7
9
10
11
Rachel Ambalu, MPH
Misha Hussain, MSc
