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US Army War College: Military Education in a Democracy

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"Judith Stiehm's book provides an excellent history of the U.S. Army College and highlights the importance of quality professional military education in maintaining the strength of the U.S. military. She raises insightful and important questions that should be carefully considered by military officers and policy-makers alike in evaluating the future of the war colleges and the education they provide." —The Honorable Ike Skelton, Ranking Member, House Armed Services Committee We are all familiar with ROTC, West Point, and other institutions that train young men and women to be military officers. But few people know of the U.S. Army War College, where the Army's elite career officers go for advanced training in strategy, national security policy, and military-government policymaking. This book takes readers inside the U.S. Army War College to learn about the faculty, staff, administration, and curriculum. Established in 1901, the school's mission has evolved from teaching the skills of war to training officers to negotiate both the complex world of modern strategy and the civilian bureaucracy in Washington. More like a professional graduate program than an academic graduate school, much of the education takes the form of exercises and simulations. Judith Stiehm, who holds the U.S. Army Distinguished Civilian Service Medal, allows readers to judge whether the U.S. Army War College successfully prepares its students for their many roles. She is skeptical that instructors can fulfill this difficult task in an era where civilians expect our military to be invincible, to win without casualties, and to serve as peacekeepers. The Military answers to the people of the United States and it is our responsibility to know how it operates at all levels. This book is a good place to start. "In this well-researched and crisply written book, Stiehm, a long-time student of military affairs, takes us inside the Army War College. She not only makes us aware of its faculty, staff, administration and curriculum, but also makes specific recommendations for how the War College may serve the military and nation better." —Lawrence J. Korb, Director of Studies at the Council On Foreign Relations and former Assistant Secretary of Defense "A thoughtful and well-researched study of the Army's prestigious senior service college. The reader has much to consider in drawing his or her own conclusions about the college and its proper direction in a constantly-changing world." —BG Evelyn " Pat " Foote, USA ( Ret.) AWC Faculty 1979-82 "This readable and insightful review of the Army War College is a must for Army professionals and elected or appointed civilian leaders with oversight. Stiehm has documented both strengths and weaknesses of the Army's institutional education of its future strategic leaders. Unfortunately, as she clearly documents, the balance is not as positive as the future demands. Her critique can contribute in major ways, to the development of the future leadership of the Army Profession." —Don M. Snider, Professor of Political Science, US Military Academy, West Point "The Army War College is one of America's most significant institutions and—until now—least examined. We are greatly indebted to Stiehm who gives us both a candid description and an incisive blueprint of how to improve the Army's education of senior officers." —Charles Moskos, Professor of Sociology, Northwestern University

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... A leader's decision to initiate change, and the outcomes that result, can have both positive and negative impacts on their personal and professional lives. Knowing more about these triggers and effects could help prepare more change agents and provide organizations with the ability to continually adapt to today's fast-changing, complex, high-speed VUCA environments (Stiehm & Townsend, 2002;Stuart, 1995). Buchanan, Claydon, and Doyle (1999) and Doyle (2000) pointed out that although the change agent role is viewed as critical for success, little has been done to create competency in the role. ...
... The term "VUCA" was originally used by the U.S. Army War College (Stiehm & Townsend, 2002) to describe the post-Cold War global environment. VUCA has been applied to organizational survival (Bennett & Lemoine, 2014), which depends on the ability to adapt and grow to meet the needs of consumers. ...
... Relying on a transcript of a series of lectures given by Michel (Stiehm & Townsend, 2002). The approach required in these situations must avoid linear set procedures and sequences (Zweibelson, 2012). ...
... VUCA was a term first coined following the Cold War to depict a new form of unpredictable military engagement (Stiehm, 2002;Codreanu, 2016) and has been increasing focus of new and ongoing research. Although this term was initially utilized in the military, in the late 1990s it became a conceptual framework for the present and future leadership landscape (Johansen, 2012(Johansen, , 2017Stiehm, 2002). ...
... VUCA was a term first coined following the Cold War to depict a new form of unpredictable military engagement (Stiehm, 2002;Codreanu, 2016) and has been increasing focus of new and ongoing research. Although this term was initially utilized in the military, in the late 1990s it became a conceptual framework for the present and future leadership landscape (Johansen, 2012(Johansen, , 2017Stiehm, 2002). Dynamically shifting circumstances make projections uncertain as a multitude of influences need to be taken into account (Shaffer & Zalewski, 2011). ...
... • VUCA is an acronym that was devised by the US Army War College to describe post-Cold War warfare (Stiehm, 2002), which now describes popularly is used to depict the current organizational landscape as volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (Codreanu, 2016;Johansen, 2007Johansen, , 2012Johansen, , 2017Johansen & Euchner, 2013;Rodriguez & Rodriguez, 2015;Sarkar, 2016). ...
Thesis
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As the world becomes increasingly interconnected through intricate networks in technology-laden environments, leadership has become exponentially more complex. This VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) context disrupts long-held leadership constructs. Historically, leaders have been able to reflect on past decision making to guide their current and future decisions. No longer is this practice viable; leaders now require new skills to lead competently in this rapidly iterating ecosystem. With its challenges, this dynamic environment also offers opportunities for those who are able to capitalize on the next waves of disruption. Social entrepreneurs, tackling the world’s most pressing challenges, are leading systems-wide changes within this technology-driven context. With a heightened awareness of these global issues, employing contextual intelligence to capitalize on new and innovative social solutions through creative destruction enables leaders to exploit this technology-rich landscape to expand their social impact. Consequently, this phenomenological qualitative study utilized semi-structured interviews to investigate the best practices and strategies employed by Ashoka Fellow social entrepreneurs who are leading change successfully within this VUCA context. In addition, this study explored the challenges these entrepreneurs encountered while leading, the ways in which they evaluated their success, the role that technology played day-to-day, and what recommendations they would make to future leaders of systems-wide change. Through this study, 30 key findings surfaced in relation to successful practices and strategies for leading systems-wide change in a technology-rich VUCA ecosystem.
... While Wells Fargo claimed to have had an established vision statement, the shared mental models among employees were not well-designed. 6 More specifically, the vision statement did not describe a future state or purpose. Because employees did not have a clear vision of the desired future state, or goal, of the organization, implicit mental models were formed and acted upon. ...
... Developed at the U.S. Army War College, the term VUCA was first used in 1990 for a course on Senior Leadership to characterize conflicts in the post-Cold War era. See:[6] , p. 128. ...
... Developed at the U.S. Army War College, the term VUCA was first used in 1990 for a course on Senior Leadership to characterize conflicts in the post-Cold War era. See:[6] , p. 128. . ...
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This paper explores how the fundamental structure of organizations (Vision, Mission, Capacity, and Learning, or VMCL) can assist agile organizations with adaptive leadership. Through learning the four functions of the VMCL theory, this paper will also explore how organizations can utilize the ideas of complex adaptive systems, POSIWID, feedback and how structure drives behavior. Using a case study on the systematic failure of Wells Fargo, this paper will demonstrate a real-world example of applying VMCL to improve the systems within organizations.
... VUCA, günümüzde hemen hemen her işte karşı karşıya olunan koşullar ve etkenleri anlatan bir kısaltmadır (Aktaran Yurdaseven, 2020, 1645. Bir diğer tanıma göre ise VUCA, her büyüklükteki işletmelerin mevcut ve gelecekteki liderlik profilini şekillendirebilmeleri için kullanılan bir 21. yüzyıl çerçevesidir (Stiehm, 2002;Johansen, 2007). VUCA, herkesin karşı karşıya kaldığı, değişken ve kaotik iş, ekonomik ve fiziksel çevreyi en iyi şekilde tanımlamakta ve günümüzde göz ardı edilemeyecek, standart bir işletme dönemi haline gelmiştir (Sullivan, 2012;Sullivan 2013). ...
... VUCA Dünyası, 21. yüzyıl için kavramsal bir çerçeve ve içerik olup, tehlikeli kırılmalar ve olumlu yenilikler dâhil olmak üzere, değişimin tümüyle ilgilidir (Johansen, 2007). Diğer bir deyişle, "VUCA Dünyası", kaotik bir dünyadır (Mangahas, 2016) ve günümüzde insanlar, karmaşıklık, oynaklık, muğlaklık ve belirsizlik ile nitelenen ve sürekli değişen bu dünyada yaşamaktadır (Stiehm, 2002;Johansen, 2007). Yakın gelecekte, hızlı değişim, belirsizlik, kriz ve karmaşıklık sorunlarının, işletmeler için devam edeceği öngörülmektedir (Konczak ve Molloy, 2010). ...
Article
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Today's world is going through a VUCA era where the rate of change and scope with Covid-19 cannot be determined, it is difficult to plan and predict for the upcoming periods. VUCA is an acronym first used in 1987 and based on Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus' leadership theories, which means variability, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. The aim of the research is to examine the mediating role of anxiety level in the effect of VUCA environment conditions on human resources efficiency. The research data were obtained from 627 randomly selected employees who are actively working in a business using the structured questionnaire technique. As a result of the research, a positive relationship was found between VUCA and anxiety level, and a negative relationship between VUCA and efficiency. Therefore, it cannot be said that the level of anxiety has a mediator effect in efficiency relationship with VUCA.As a result of the hierarchical regression analysis, it was observed that the level of anxiety had a full mediating effect in the relationship between VUCA and productivity. According to this result, it can be said that the reason for the negative effect of VUCA on productivity is the increase in anxiety level of the people.
... The drivers behind the phenomenon of megatrends are called VUCA (Stiehm & Townsend, 2002), the acronym stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. The terms can be explained as follows: ...
... Ambiguity: Information is growing, often contradictory and therefore hard to be interpreted clearly. Simple causalities can no longer be formed resulting in a lack of opportunities to apply standardized processes or best practices (Stiehm & Townsend, 2002). ...
Chapter
The chapter illustrates how leadership behaviour can enhance crisis management in order to achieve higher organizational resilience in SMEs. Theoretical concepts of leadership, crisis management and organizational resilience are discussed in order to propose a framework of ambidextrous leadership behaviour in crisis management. The study is carried out by action research, and results so far show that ambidextrous leadership in SME supports all five phases of crisis management and reduces barriers for organizational resilience. Practitioners may benefit from the application of the framework as a blueprint for their own business. Researchers may be interested in empirical testing of the proposed model on a larger scale.
... O termo VUCA foi cunhado pelo Colégio de Guerra do Exército dos Estados Unidos para descrever as condições existentes durante a Guerra Fria -os problemas enfrentados nesse contexto não têm soluções claras (STIEHM;TOWNSEND, 2002). Desde então, esse conceito tem sido adotado no ambiente corporativo para caracterizar as mudanças vertiginosas e as condições desafiadoras características do atual mundo dos negócios. ...
... O termo VUCA foi cunhado pelo Colégio de Guerra do Exército dos Estados Unidos para descrever as condições existentes durante a Guerra Fria -os problemas enfrentados nesse contexto não têm soluções claras (STIEHM;TOWNSEND, 2002). Desde então, esse conceito tem sido adotado no ambiente corporativo para caracterizar as mudanças vertiginosas e as condições desafiadoras características do atual mundo dos negócios. ...
Conference Paper
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Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity are aspects of the current corporate environment. In this context, organizations that are not adapted will be doomed to failure and will run serious risks of survival. Leadership as a process driver of these organizations, needs to be adequate to deal with these new challenges. The purpose of this article was to analyze the competencies needed by the leader in the VUCA context. For this purpose, the scope review was used, in which the essential competencies for leaders and leadership in a VUCA environment, among main: agility, team alignment, ability to learn, ability to decide, ability to innovate, resilience and self-knowledge. As a suggestion for future research if advises the carrying out of empirical work to attest whether the skills listed are the suitable for the context of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.
... War College describes the current geopolitical world as filled with volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, or VUCA (Stiehm, 2002), which is increasingly evident in cyberattacks. A recent Executive Order 13870 (2019) on America's Cybersecurity Workforce focuses on providing agencies with increased flexibility to hire and reassign cybersecurity professionals to address these issues. ...
... The world that cybersecurity professionals inhabit (described earlier as VUCA) both in their organizational settings and the larger world that they face (Stiehm, 2002). There are challenges from many areas in how they are able to accomplish their duties. ...
Article
Cybersecurity professionals in the federal government work on complex problems in organizations where they have multiple competing roles. In addition, the gap between workers with cyber skills and job openings means that current cybersecurity professionals must carry a heavy load. Combined, this can lead to stress that has negative consequences for their well-being. Positive psychology can help address this, particularly through enhancing positive experiences, leveraging character strengths, developing resilience skills, and building psychological safety. Resilience skills help cybersecurity professionals increase capacity their capacity to deal with uncertainty and build strong teams. Psychological safety supports and environment of innovation and professional development. These strategies are accessible ways for cybersecurity professionals to thrive in their work, improving their well-being as well as their ability to better address the emergent threats of a volatile world.
... VUCA é um acrônimo em língua inglesa, Volatilidade (Volatility), Uncertainty (incerteza), Complexity (complexidade) e Ambiguity (ambiguidade), que se originou no exército dos EUA (US Army War College) para descrever os desafios da liderança militar em um ambiente de campo de batalha (Stiehm, 2002). A sigla, inicialmente, foi elaborada para descrever como o mundo após a Guerra Fria poderia se comportar em condições extremas, mostrando a necessidade de estruturar as organizações para enfrentar os problemas que poderiam ser apresentados pelo ambiente (Whiteman, 1998, p. 15). ...
... Porém, alguns autores posteriores não interpretaram devidamente tal aplicação. Em pouco tempo, autores, pesquisadores, gestores e políticos passaram a replicar os mesmos princípios, no início direcionados para um público militar (Stiehm, 2002), para a tomada de decisões e planejamento de longo alcance em todos os campos, incluindo governo e política. O conceito original, introduzido por Whiteman (1998), refere-se à contraposição entre o trabalho realizado de forma ordenada, eficiente e eficaz com situações voláteis, incertas, complexas e ambíguas. ...
Conference Paper
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Descomplicando o VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity). Investigação e Considerações sobre as Publicações A1 da Área 27 do Qualis/Capes Resumo Uma revisão sistemática da literatura sobre o Mundo VUCA, de forma censitária, foi realizada em todos os 307 periódicos científicos da Classificação 'Estrato A1', da Área de Avaliação 'Administração Pública e de Empresas, Ciências Contábeis e Turismo' (Área 27). A investigação foi promovida para atingir os objetivos propostos no trabalho: investigar e classificar os periódicos e trabalhos científicos do Estrato A1-Área 27 que tratavam do tema de pesquisa; e analisar a compreensão, aplicabilidade e tendências do Mundo VUCA. Sete especialistas entrevistados sugeriram descritores para a pesquisa. A abordagem do trabalho foi qualitativa, com exame pormenorizado dos 199 trabalhos encontrados. Em alguns trechos das análises optou-se pela técnica Análise de Conteúdo, efetuada pelo software AQUAD. As contribuições teóricas foram: (i) sugerir uma sequência de referências para serem apreciadas pelos pesquisadores do tema, e (ii) a composição de uma visão teórica sintética sobre o Ambiente VUCA. As contribuições práticas foram: (i) a sugestão de aplicação do índice original IRR proposto para a hierarquização de trabalhos científicos para a seleção de referencial teórico e (ii) um ordenamento de periódicos do Estrato A1 da Área 27, receptivos para a futura submissão de trabalhos que analisem e apliquem cenários instáveis e voláteis.
... Moral ein entscheidender Faktor, welche die Arbeit des Truppenführers bestimmt (Matthews, 2014). Unbeständigkeit und Ungewissheit der Lageentwicklung in militärischen Operationen, sowie die Komplexität in der Planung und Durchführungen von Operationen und die Unklarheit des Ausgangs einer Operation stellen hohe Ansprüche an den Charakter jedes Soldaten (Stiehm, 2002). Doch liegt es in der Verantwortung jedes militärischen Führers seine Soldaten auf diese Faktoren vorzubereiten, ihre Resilienz gegen diese zu entwickeln und zu stärken und diese auch im Gefecht zu erhalten (Matthews, 2014). ...
... Eine effektive Führung ist insbesondere unter den unbeständigen, ungewissen, komplexen und unklaren Umständen eines Gefechts (Stiehm, 2002) von großer Bedeutung (Matthews, 2014). Führungskräfte, die unter solchen extremen Bedingungen bestehen, weisen dabei eine ähnliche Facette von Eigenschaften, Fähigkeiten und Einstellungen auf (Matthews, 2014). ...
Thesis
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The following study examines what kind of character strength the ideal German Army Officer should embody. The concept of character strengths by Peterson and Seligman (2004) was used as a foundation for the study. A sample of N=307 German soldiers were asked to rate the importance of twelve character strengths presented in the questionnaire Observation of Character in Field (Boe et al., 2017) on a five-tier scale. The nine most important character strengths are in descending order: integrity, Leadership, Fairness, Love of Learning, Open-mindedness, Self-regulation, Persistence, Bravery and Teamwork. Furthermore, the calculation of a multiple regression and two correlations indicates the influence of several variables on the rating of the presented character strengths.
... Indeed, perceptions of intercalated technoscientific change as antagonism are a defining characteristic of the U.S. Information-Age security imaginary . For professionals of security in the United States, the Information Age, with its attendant changes in technology and society, is imagined to have ushered in a newly volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous, and dangerous world that challenges traditional practices of knowing, acting, and being (Stiehm, 2002;Lawson, 2014). Thus, concern with threats to and through the global network of interconnected telecommunication infrastructures upon which so much of information society and economy depend (i.e. the cyberspace "domain") has emerged as a prominent feature of this Information-Age security imaginary. ...
... SOT is a useful framework for military and business leaders. But, current day leaders in a VUCA [5] (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous) reality must do more than command and control from a distant hillside. They must ensure that S, O, and T levels are integrally aligned. ...
Preprint
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We need leaders who can execute at the Strategic, Operational, and Tactical (SOT) levels. But, research shows it takes time for skills to develop at all three levels—too much time. Why does it take too much time? First, because expertise is borne of experience. An expert’s intuition requires time on task— mistake-making, in-the-trenches, experiential learning that cannot be replaced by any amount of formal training, and this happens over time. Second, the cognitive skills required at one level of SOT, appear different from those required at another level of SOT. For example, tactical thinking is seen as a different set of skills than those needed for strategic thinking. In this paper, we propose that while number 1 above is a necessary condition, number 2 above is not. Leaders can be taught to “leapfrog” from a tactical understanding, to an operational understanding, to a strategic one, not only by spending time in those new areas of leadership, but by learning new structural thinking approaches informed by Systems Thinking (DSRP) and Systems Leadership (VMCL). These structural approaches to thinking offer the underlying principles of both systems thinking and systems leadership. Once understood, they are easily applied across strategic, operational and tactical contexts as well as problem solving. This paper offers an overview of three things necessary for this application: (1) the four underlying Structures (DSRP) of systems thinking; (2) the powerful dynamics among them; and (3) the four inherent functions of all organizations that guide systems leadership (VMCL). We review individual thinking and leadership skills that can enhance one’s ability to think complexly when faced with complex phenomena and that can significantly reduce learning and preparation time in developing leaders. We propose that these three skills allow the organizational leader to benefit from far transfer by applying complex cognitive algorithms that they possess at one level (one that is experientially well known to them) to other levels of scale (those that are less experientially known to them). We describe these thinking skills and then apply them to two real-world case examples: (1) military leadership and (2) corporate leadership.
... Markets are changing and technologies continue to disrupt according to an exponential logic (Kurzweil, 2001). The dynamism of such changes is well described by VUCA -Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity -, an acronym introduced toward end of the Cold War (Bennis and Nanus, 1985) to describe the emergence of a completely new global landscape demanding innovative and diverse approaches in handling business (Stiehm and Townsend, 2002). In these settings, some firms such as Google (Iyer and Davenport, 2008;Parker, et al., 2017), Valve (Felin and Powell, 2016), Haier (Frynas, et al., 2018) and TEDx (Merchant, 2013) seem capable not only to be extremely resilient, but also of leveraging on these elements to produce impact that are disproportionally large -at least 10x larger -compared to their peers (Ismail, et al., 2014). ...
Conference Paper
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The paper organizes the scientific contributions to rigorously define Exponential Organizations (ExOs). A systematic literature review allowed highlighting some fundamental relationships and to develop the first attempt of a conceptual framework on these organizations.
... Borrowing from the art world is a side effect of the emerging knowledge society (Stehr 1994). Creativity has become a key resource for business innovation (Amabile 1996;Mumford 2000;Florida 2002) and is considered a decisive asset used by companies to differentiate and compete effectively in an increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world (Jeffcutt and Pratt 2002;Stiehm and Townsend 2002;Damanpour and Aravind 2012;Bennett and Lemoine 2014). Against this background, companies increasingly seek ways of collaborating with artists, thus establishing endeavors that promise mutual benefits beyond mere arts promotion (Schiuma 2011;Smagina and Lindemanis 2012;Carlucci and Schiuma 2018). ...
Article
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In a highly competitive business environment, integrating artists into corporate research and development (R&D) seems to be a promising way to foster inventiveness and idea generation. Given the importance of individual level innovation for product development, this study explores the benefits that employees experience from the artist-in-residence-program at Robert Bosch GmbH, Germany. Qualitative content analysis of interviews with scientists and engineers was performed in order to explore the impact of their encounters with artists in the theoretical framework of the triadic concept and transmission model of inspiration. The findings corroborate the notion that inspiration is a suitable theoretical underpinning for individual benefits of art–science collaborations in the front end of innovation. Scientists and engineers are inspired by the artists’ otherness and transcend their usual modes of perception in favor of enhanced focal, peripheral and bifocal vision. Whereas shifts in perspective are reflected in individual thinking patterns, researchers are hardly motivated to change their work-related behavior. The exchange with artists does not have a concrete impact on technological innovation, because researchers neither integrate impulses into their experiential world nor link them to fields of activity. In the case under scrutiny, artistic impulses do not contribute to idea generation in the sense of front-end activities. The study contributes to research on artists in businesses by illuminating the R&D environment as a hitherto neglected field of activity. While substantiating previous research on artist-in-science-residencies, the results suggest that the potential of such interdisciplinary endeavors is limited.
... The pandemic has led to increased crossborder distance problems with travel restrictions and limited international mobility (Caligiuri et al., 2020). The health and economic crises created by the global pandemic have given further significance (Caligiuri et al., 2020) to the concept of volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments (Johansen, 2007;Schoemaker, Heaton, & Teece, 2018;Stiehm, 2002;Van Tulder, Jankowska, & Verbeke, 2019;Whiteman, 1998) and extraordinary vulnerabilities have arisen from the global uncertainty (Caligiuri et al., 2020). It seems that the COVID-19 pandemic creates the greatest challenge ever experienced to the movement of people globally (Collings & Sheeran, 2020). ...
Article
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COVID-19 has significantly impacted expatriates, affecting their ability to work effectively and their personal and family lives. This study explores their experiences in different phases of the pandemic, and their perspectives on the future of international living in light of such global disruption. Involving over 600 expatriates in 48 countries, the research shows shifts in motivation and priorities as a result of the crisis and reveals how family (extended and immediate) topped expatriates' concerns. The study examines if and how support systems worked and looks at coping mechanisms, skills, traits, previous experience, and attitudes which participants found useful. A common theme was “falling between two stools”—where expatriates were ineligible for support in either their home country or in their host country. Others described being “pulled in different directions” or “torn by a dilemma” with pros and cons in either choice. The study contributes to the questions about the future of global work with results of the survey revealing changing norms for expatriation and global mobility raising the possibility of more nuanced approaches to global projects and less binary options for global professionals and their families.
... Prussian system proved its worth in 1866 and 1870 under Helmuth Von Moltke, Chief of the General Staff when Austria and France were defeated. The Prussian model was copied by all major European 1,2 Armies, Staff Colleges proliferated across the continent., ...
... Leaders in today's business environment must be prepared to operate in volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous conditions (VUCA) (Stiehm & Townsend, 2002). Under these conditions, best or satisfactory solutions for complex problems arise through cognitively flexible response rather than additional analysis. ...
... KOMB dünyası, değişimin her zamankinden daha büyük olduğu, geleceğin öngörülebilir olmadığı, seçeneklerin katlanarak arttığı ve bu seçenekler hakkında düşünme şekillerinin şüphesiz değiştiği bir yerdir (Tovar, 2016). Günümüzdeki insanlar, karmaşıklık, oynaklık, muğlaklık ve belirsizlik ile nitelenen ve sürekli değişen bir KOMB dünyasında yaşamaktadır (Johansen, 2007;Stiehm, 2002) ve KOMB dünyası geçici bir konaklama yeri olmaktan çok kalıcı bir ikametgâhtır. ...
Article
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İçinde bulunduğumuz ve geçmişle kıyaslanamayacak hızda değişen, birbirleriyle karşılıklı ilişki içinde pek çok faktörün oluşturduğu karmaşık, oynak, muğlak ve belirsiz ortam, ABD’de VUCA olarak isimlendirilmektedir. VUCA, volatility, uncertainty, complexity ve ambiguity kelimelerinin baş harflerinden oluşan bir kısaltmadır. Bu çalışmada VUCA, dilimize KOMB (karmaşıklık, oynaklık, muğlaklık, belirsizlik) olarak uyarlanmıştır. KOMB dünyasının, geçmişin nispeten istikrarlı iş dünyasından çok farklı özellikler göstermesi, bu yeni durumla baş etmek durumunda olan yöneticilerde yeni beceriler geliştirme zorunluluğunu ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bu kuramsal (teorik) çalışmada öncelikle, KOMB olarak nitelendirilen bu yeni iş dünyasının bileşenleri ve özellikleri ele alınmış, ardından Bob Johansen tarafından geliştirilen ve KOMB dünyasında başarılı olabilmek için günümüz üst düzey yönetici ve liderlerinin taşıması gereken yeni liderlik becerileri açıklanmıştır.
... Injecting from time to time revolution into the new organisation by launching new business models as demands have arisen and are recognised. Also, the model has been adapted to the challenges incorporated in the VUCA (Volatile -Uncertain -Complex -Ambiguous) principle(Stiehm, Nicholas 2002) describing the new reality of a fast-changing world (Figure 2). ...
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The Centre of Excellence in Production Informatics and Control (EPIC CoE) was established by an international consortium with the objective to be a leading, internationally acknowledged and sustainable focus point in its field, representing excellence in R&D&I related to Cyber-Physical Production. This 7-year project is funded by the European Horizon 2020 Teaming Programme. By the end of this period, the newly created EPIC CoE is expected to become fully self-sustainable in its regional operation that is planned to cover both advanced and emerging countries in Europe. Main objective of this paper is to describe the organisational development and transformation process of an Industry 4.0 oriented state-of-the-art organisation. These circumstances determine the approach how to address the issue of governance closely related to the business model and processes that will be implemented. However, this task has to be facilitated as part of the evolution process envisaged for the upcoming years. First the vision, mission and concrete targets of the EPIC CoE are analysed to build the strategic basis for the derivation of the management and organisational structures enabling the participating partners to harmonise their experiences, skills and competences. By these efforts, the EPIC CoE is conceived as a synergic combination of two entities, i.e. one existing, acting in basic and applied research while the other one is a new company focussing on knowledge transfer and dissemination. In this paper, the special aspects that led to the concrete representations of the governance structure for each of the planned three operational phases will be outlined. These phases are (1) the establishment and start-up of the EPIC CoE, (2) followed by the phase of the evolving and maturing operation (3) to be concluded by the self-sustained one. For the definition of these phases, it is indispensable to define the different levels of the management functions and responsibilities to ensure efficiency, reliability, transparency, clear accountability as well as high-quality services to EPIC CoE's clients and partners. Being service oriented is specifically a key issue, therefore the processes that will be highlighted are grouped into: the core processes embodying the daily businesses, the management processes that ensure the effective flow of all processes that are aided by the supporting processes.
... This shift from transactional communication to shared dialogue in the classroom can be uncomfortable for some instructors, perhaps especially for those who have never taught adult learners before and may be less adept at managing the nuances of dynamic and unpredictable seminar dialogue. At the senior service college level, another confounding factor is the comparable demographics of military students and military instructors, with the two groups being near-peers (Stiehm, 2002). The situation of faculty from civilian academic backgrounds presents another unique opportunity for perspective taking, as, unlike their active duty instructor peers, they may not share quick bonds of camaraderie with their military students through shared warfighting experiences. ...
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This article explores the impetus behind and lessons learned from the redesign of the U.S. Army War College's (USAWC) 2019 New Faculty Orientation. The goal of the New Faculty Orientation is to meet new faculty's needs in a customized program by providing networking opportunities across all departments , schools, centers, and institutes in a positive and reflective environment. Foundational seminar-facilitation skills and adult-learning theories were introduced during the orientation and subsequently reinforced in a series of continuing workshops throughout the academic year. Additionally, the inaugural use of a digital and interactive new faculty handbook introduced a hybrid-learning component and provided an accessible introduction to the USAWC community before new faculty arrived at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania.
... The modern operational military environment is a mix of di erent factors. These situations are also referred to as VUCA situations, an acronym used to describe the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of di erent conditions and situations (Stiehm, 2002). The security threats that the military forces are facing in the 21st century bear the hallmarks of being multidimensional, transnational, and very often unpredictable (Fun and Ang, 2017). ...
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Leading change in adult educational organizations is not frequently described in the leadership literature. The education sector in the Norwegian Armed Forces (NAF) is in the middle of an educational reform that requires major changes. More students, fewer teachers and new organization of the studies as well as requirements for an increasingly updated technological expertise may mean that it will be necessary to increase the use of digital teaching aids. However, this is not systematically communicated as part of the reform in the same way as new topics of study. From a teacher's perspective, the most important thing is to safeguard the quality of the education and ensure that important topics do not disappear in a reform. Therefore, one can well imagine that the focus on the purpose of change and the need for active participation is overlooked or not prioritized. Our focus in the process was largely the study content and some concern about the increase in the number of cadets. After completing the first courses in the new education, we were therefore quite surprised that the cadets were asked in the course evaluation whether digital aids had been used in the teaching, As a result, we were inspired to look more closely at what requirements were set and whether more exact plans had been prepared for the introduction of digitization of education as part of the reform process. Since the education reform in the NAF results in such a fundamental change, our perspectives may possibly benefit staffs at other colleges who are going to carry out major change processes. The main goal of this study was to investigate if or how the Norwegian Ministry of Education and Research's intention of digitization and its specific primary goals of learning and teaching trickle down through the hierarchies and into the study programs at the Norwegian Military Academy (NMA). To see if the Ministry's intentions were actually understood and realized, as our second aim we investigated whether we found the concepts of digitization or digital tools mentioned in any of the Norwegian Defence University College's (NDUC) study programs and subject plans for teaching. These intentions cannot be implemented unless they are enshrined in the study programs. As a third aim we also tried to find out whether digitization and digital tools actually had been used in the teaching in the new NAF Basic Officer Education, as this would reflect how the Ministry's intention of digitization and specific primary goals of learning and teaching had been realized. We used a mixed methods approach in the study as we first investigated documents compiled from the government issued for the university and college sector in Norway, the NAF and the NDUC to see if the overall plan for digitization from the Norwegian Ministry of Education and Research could be traced. In addition, we investigated the answers that officer cadets had given to questions in three course evaluations related to the use of digital tools in their education. Our three hypotheses were the following: Hypothesis 1: Several of the requirements for digitization have disappeared in the dissemination of the documents from the Ministry to the NAF Basic Officer Education. Hypothesis 2: No plan has been prepared as part of the educational change process for the introduction and implementation of new digital tools in the NAF Basic Officer Education. Hypothesis 3: It is up to the individuals to introduce and implement the use of new digital tools in the NAF Basic Officer Education. We found support for the two first out of our three hypotheses. The latter proved difficult to investigate with the means available, but we will nevertheless discuss some assumptions we have formed, based on the findings that the survey revealed. Hypothesis 3 only received partial support. Finally, the article discusses some leadership challenges that arise from the results we found. The study thus shows how long it can take from the Ministry issues its intention until it is actually implemented in practice at the NDUC. The final comments may also give an indication of how this process may be better focused and thus become likely to increase the implementation rate of digitization.
... It makes bad men worse and good men better (Chamberlain, 1915, p. 295) Changes, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity characterize many modern military operational environments. These types of situations are also referred to as VUCA, as an acronym used to describe the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity of different conditions and situations (Stiehm, 2002). An additional challenge is "asymmetric" warfare, that is, a type of conflict characterized by terrorism, guerrilla warfare, and ideological manipulation (Matthews, 2014). ...
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This chapter discusses how character strengths can be a relevant tool for selection of military officers, prediction of entrance into a military academy, leadership education, and prediction of military performance. Twelve character strengths have been found to be important for Norwegian officers, and an observational instrument that can be used to measure character strengths in field exercises has been developed and tested. The chapter also discusses the development of self-proficiency, social proficiency, and subject matter proficiency, and which character strengths to develop under each of these three proficiencies.
... The world is now showing situations called VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) (Lawrence, Steck, & Pryplesh, 1991). The term was used for the first time by military institutions (Stiehm, 2002). The term VUCA started to be used in the economic sector after a global financial crisis broke out in 2008(Tovar, 2016. ...
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The world is now facing such a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous situation known as VUCA that it has generated such new challenges. Therefore, it is imperative that a leader to have competences that always grow. Transformational leadership is a type of leadership deemed superior to anticipate those challenges, where a leader is supposed to always be agile in achieving the organizational goals. This study aimed at analyzing a correlation among leadership aspects (through Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire/MLQ assessment), cognitive functions (through Wechsler Bellevue assessment), and brain activity pattern/brain mapping (through Electroencephalography/EEG). Then, we gave a stimulus through neurofeedback to train the participants’ control over their brain waves. The results revealed that all participants that became the research samples had a transformational leadership type with idealized influence (behavior) and inspirational motivation subtypes. Moreover, the presence of stimulation to the brain (neurofeedback) enabled the participants to control their brain waves when they were conscious. The leaders will be able to perform optimally when they can control their brain waves and when they are conscious.
... In order to operate effectively amid the uncertainty of complex modern-day economic landscapes, global crises, and changes coming from unforeseen directions (World Economic Forum, 2016), managers often have to learn much faster, figuring things out "as they go" rather than "before they go" (Chia, 2017;Ingold, 2000: 230;World Economic Forum, 2016). As a result, moving through today's volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environment (Stiehm and Townsend, 2002) requires not only intellectual engagement but also sensory knowing (Antonacopoulou, 2019;Maslen, 2016;Rosenblum, 2011). Yet, sensing remains the proverbial elephant in the room of management learning: it has become emphasized more in research; it is present in the classroom but seldom acknowledged, as there is reluctance to engage when sensing is brought to the forefront (Springborg and Sutherland, 2014: 47). ...
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This conceptual paper examines reasons why analytically educated learners may be reluctant to engage in sensory-based learning. Sensing is indispensable for constructing knowledge and should be employed on par with the intellect, particularly in today's complex and uncertain context. Yet, we have observed learners' reluctance to engage with sensing and attempted to understand the reasons for it. Our theoretical contribution illuminates the underlying causes of this phenomenon, thus furthering the study of sensing in the fields of individual learning and management learning. Our practical contribution prompts researchers, learners, educators, and managers to think more systematically about ways to overcome this reluctance and openly bring sensing into management learning practice on par with intellectual processing. With the help of phenomenal theorizing, the presented exploratory study identifies the following common barriers to sensory-based learning for analytically educated learners: corporate social norms against sensory-based evidence, discomfort of learning outside of one's comfort zone, inadequate vocabulary for sensory experiences, lack of sensory awareness, preference for sequential reasoning, mistrust in sensory-based evidence, dismissive attitude, and denying (or not admitting to) the use of sensing.
... The acronym VUCA has its origin in the US military and referred to the shift from the industrial to the information age and a changed political and military situation after the cold war (Whiteman, 1998). In the late 1990s, the term found its way into management literature and is now considered as a contextual framework that captures the challenging environment for companies of all sizes and in all sectors (Stiehm, 2002). Johansen (2007, p.46) highlights the drawbacks but also the opportunities of the VUCA world: "the VUCA world is all about change, including both dangerous ruptures and positive innovation". ...
Article
Today’s world is characterised by change at a rapid pace. A concept that describes this demanding environment is the acronym VUCA – volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. These four dynamics affect not only organisations but also leaders. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of leadership under VUCA conditions remains vague. To fill this research gap, we conduct a systematic literature review to classify the existing leadership literature under VUCA conditions. Our research contributes to the field by synthesising the vast amount of literature, aiming for a more structured overview of research outcomes over the past 20 years (2000–2020). Since leadership is more and more a global activity in organisations, we furthermore analyse these findings from an intercultural perspective, linking the field of cross-cultural management, especially that of intercultural competence, to the leadership environment in the VUCA world.
... Although intercommunity cooperation represents a very interesting perspective, as it may lead to effective destination development and promotion, it seems harder to create the conditions necessary for intercommunity cooperation and collaboration. Among the most common causes of concern for local governments is that developing tourism through collaboration could jeopardize their control over local decision-making [9,29,30], thus pushing the limits of cooperation, particularly for long-term relationships-for example, due to partners overexploiting resources. ...
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Cooperation in tourism is considered crucial for sustainable destination promotion, addressing several opportunities to decrease the level of competition among actors to achieve advantages for all. Global markets force rapid, virtual teaming up and high reconfigurability through heavy reliance on information and communications technology in the pursuit of specific market opportunities for a destination’s heritage promotion. In light of a reshaped destination management organization role, this work focuses on temporary cooperation and adapts the dynamic virtual enterprise model to tourism. A case history in Brescia was examined to support the theoretical construct. The resulting conceptual schema highlights the main features of a virtual enterprise in tourism (VEt), the life cycle stages—qualified by dynamic adaptation—and the leadership role of the destination management organizations. In generating a VEt model, four conditions for effectiveness emerge.
... El origen de la maestría se da en un contexto regional e internacional conocido como mundo VUCA (Stiehm y Townsend, 2002). El acrónimo, que viene del mundo militar, denota lo volátil, incierto, complejo y ambiguo que puede ser el espacio donde compiten hoy todas las organizaciones. ...
... El origen de la maestría se da en un contexto regional e internacional conocido como mundo VUCA (Stiehm y Townsend, 2002). El acrónimo, que viene del mundo militar, denota lo volátil, incierto, complejo y ambiguo que puede ser el espacio donde compiten hoy todas las organizaciones. ...
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The following paper was presented at the event called “RAD 2020 Meeting: Curricular Perspectives in Design for the 21st century” in Cali, Colombia in February 2020 before the academic community of the Colombian Association of Academic Design Network (RAD) under the theme of Disruptive design training. In this work carried out by the Curricular Committee of the Industrial Design Program of the Catholic University of Pereira between 2016 and 2019, the curricular experience that was given to respond to a curricular transformation in the face of the different external and internal requirements that were raised as challenges to solve for the training of relevant industrial designers for the region, the country and the world. La siguiente ponencia se presentó en el evento denominado “Encuentro RAD 2020: Perspectivas Curriculares de Diseño para el siglo 21” en Cali, Colombia en Febrero de 2020 ante la comunidad académica de la Asociación Colombiana Red Académica de Diseño (RAD) bajo la temática de Formación de diseño disruptivo. En este trabajo adelantado por el Comité Curricular del Programa de Diseño Industrial de la Universidad Católica de Pereira entre 2016 y 2019, se presenta la experiencia curricular que se dio para dar respuesta a una transformación curricular ante los diferentes requerimientos externos e internos que se plantearon como retos a solucionar para la formación de diseñadores industriales pertinentes para la región, el país y el mundo.
... The acronym VUCA has its origin in the US military and referred to the shift from the industrial to the information age and a changed political and military situation after the cold war (Whiteman, 1998). In the late 1990s, the term found its way into management literature and is now considered as a contextual framework that captures the challenging environment for companies of all sizes and in all sectors (Stiehm, 2002). Johansen (2007, p.46) highlights the drawbacks but also the opportunities of the VUCA world: "the VUCA world is all about change, including both dangerous ruptures and positive innovation". ...
Article
Today’s world is characterised by change at a rapid pace. A concept that describes this demanding environment is the acronym VUCA – volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. These four dynamics affect not only organisations but also leaders. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of leadership under VUCA conditions remains vague. To fill this research gap, we conduct a systematic literature review to classify the existing leadership literature under VUCA conditions. Our research contributes to the field by synthesising the vast amount of literature, aiming for a more structured overview of research outcomes over the past 20 years (2000–2020). Since leadership is more and more a global activity in organisations, we furthermore analyse these findings from an intercultural perspective, linking the field of cross-cultural management, especially that of intercultural competence, to the leadership environment in the VUCA world.
... The acronym VUCA has its origin in the US military and referred to the shift from the industrial to the information age and a changed political and military situation after the cold war (Whiteman, 1998). In the late 1990s, the term found its way into management literature and is now considered as a contextual framework that captures the challenging environment for companies of all sizes and in all sectors (Stiehm, 2002). Johansen (2007, p.46) highlights the drawbacks but also the opportunities of the VUCA world: "the VUCA world is all about change, including both dangerous ruptures and positive innovation". ...
... When it comes to leadership the changes and pressures that Bok refers to have been variously summarized, including in the VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambig uity) acronym popularised by the U.S. Army War College (Stiehm, 2002) and the description of leadership challenges as "wicked problems" (Rittel & Webber, 1973). Back of these interpretations it is possible to discern three late modern trends, namely increasing connectivity, complexity, and precarity. ...
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Our aim is to provide a fresh, practical perspective for leader development. To hit this target, we offer a framework that should be of shared interest to leaders and to those who have roles and responsibilities to develop leaders. Most readers likely appreciate that an organization’s capacity to perform relies in part upon leader development. In nearly every circumstance, however, it is not safe to assume that development occurs naturally. Development requires intentionality across a range of activities. We call this activity purposeful engagement. Our proposal provides a practical developmental philosophy that informs a roadmap to achieve it. Purposeful engagement rests upon two foundational components: leader fundamentals and theories of adult learning. Knowing what leaders do and how leaders learn are prerequisites to planning meaningful leadership opportunities, accomplishing meaningful assessment, and evaluating the effectiveness of developmental interventions.
Article
The Requirement specification document serves as a contract between the developer and the various stakeholders of the system under development. For better quality control, every requirement needs to be verified before being based line. According to the report of Systems Sciences Institute at IBM, it cost 6 times more when fixing a bug in implementation phase than fixing the same bug during the design phase. Furthermore, it costs 15 times more to fix bugs in testing phase if left during the design phase. This paper attempts to propose a model Requirement Ambiguity and Uncertainty Management Model (RAUMM) to deal with requirement ambiguity and uncertainty at early stage of software development. A tool has been developed to detect four types of ambiguities i.e. lexical, syntax, syntactic and referential ambiguity in requirements specification document. A compilation of potential ambiguous words is done from the taxonomy present in Ambiguity Handbook. This proposed tool will help the analysts to detect potential ambiguities. Several requirements writing rules have been taken from literature. Ambiguity Assessment has been performed by implementation of Adaptive Fuzzy Neural Network and ambiguities detected by tool have been taken as input. Relationship between Uncertainty and ambiguity has been analyzed finally.
Chapter
Agilität ist eine Form und ein Medium der rekursiven und reflexiven Konditionierung von Kommunikation im Betrieb. Sie stellt von einer Oben/Unten-Rangordnung (Hierarchie) auf eine mindestens gleichwertige Innen/Außen-Rangordnung (Heterarchie) um. Die Ordnung der Agilität ist eine Ordnung der Schnittstellen. Der Beitrag diskutiert Teams, Netzwerke, Technologie, Organisation, Gesellschaft und Persönlichkeit als Kandidaten für ein funktionales Verständnis von Schnittstellen und schließt mit einem Blick auf agile Kommunikation im Medium einer Digitalisierung der Organisation.
Article
This study outlines a multi‐year collaboration journey between academics in two widely disparate disciplines: art/design and business/management. Eventually this culminated in co‐designing and co‐developing a folded paper zine, and related processes, to improve private reflective practice, particularly of managers and students of management. This zine co‐design journey was articulated through the lens of Schumpeter’s hybridity perspective ‘new combinations’, in the context of transdisciplinarity. As both commercial and social organisations face increasing complexity and uncertainty, the rationally oriented tools developed for planning and decision‐making in more stable times need to be augmented by those which assume or even welcome ambiguity and not‐knowing. This creates an opportunity to draw on art‐based methods such as zines, given that the arts acknowledge, value and address such uncertainty.
Chapter
Reflectivity is an essential skill for every professional. According to Schön, reflectivity is the focal point for understanding and learning a craft. On top of this, for an operational serviceman/woman reflectivity is crucial to cope with the complex and ever-changing context he/she is working in. This prompts the question: what exactly is reflectivity? The importance from a military point of view is delineated at individual, team, and organizational level. Two concepts of reflective studying are introduced: the Experiential Learning Theory and Problem-Based Learning. With this frame, the actual situation on officers’ education is explored. This leads to the conclusion that reflectivity should be given more attention in the curriculum and in the classroom. Concurrently, other competences for teachers are required and education, military training, and Corps processes need to be aligned, while the cadets need to adopt a more critical stance.
Chapter
Competitive advantages of organizations are becoming temporary and transient in today’s volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) environments. At the same time, there is both practical and research evidence that long-term oriented organizations outperform and deliver wider benefits to stakeholders than short-term oriented ones. Based on this, organizations should aim at stretching competitive advantages towards viability advantage.
Chapter
COVID-19 has catapulted organizations across every industry into upheaval. As organizations struggle to pivot and innovate, leaders understand that VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) conditions require a different approach to leadership, innovation, operations, and management. VUCA conditions challenge both the traditional modalities of Western leadership practices, which rely on hierarchical control and predictability, and executive coaching practices that are based on linear frameworks of cause and effect. Since executive coaches often serve as trusted advisors, it is imperative for them to not only understand the nature and impact of VUCA conditions on a leader’s wellness and mental clarity, but also build their skillset to ensure leadership effectiveness through such uncharted times. This chapter summarizes findings from a qualitative research study that examined the best practices for executive coaches who support global leaders (Bayat, Supporting leadership success in a complex global economy: Best practices in executive coaching, Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Pepperdine University, 2018). The results combine insights and advice from 39 highly successful, in-demand executive coaches, representing nine different countries, from a wide array of disciplines and professional backgrounds who provide strategies for leadership success in a VUCA world. Findings suggest nine key best practices, centered on presence and open-mindedness, as the basis to support leadership success as we collectively address the challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.
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Since 9/11, the United States has achieved notable gains against al Qaeda, and also Islamic State (IS), all while avoiding another mass-casualty attack at home. Yet, institutionally, culturally, and in its capabilities, the US government remains seriously ill-equipped for the task of countering irregular threats. Partly as a result, Islamist extremism shows no sign of being defeated, having instead metastasized since 9/11 and spread. Why, given the importance accorded to counterterrorism, has the US approach remained inadequate? What is impeding more fundamental reforms? The article evaluates the United States’ way of irregular warfare: its troubled engagement with counterinsurgency and its problematic search for lower cost and lower risk ways of combating terrorism. It suggests needed reforms but acknowledges also the unlikelihood of change.
Chapter
There are three key sections of this chapter. The first is the ideal of a public broadcaster as a force for influential good and the role it generally is expected to fulfil, not just in the media but more importantly in the life of a nation. At a time in history when other governments were observed to use propaganda to craft national thinking, radio was seen as a potent means of controlling the national mindset. This chapter also develops an understanding of the power of ABC staff culture and how it has constrained ABC leadership and management with a dismissiveness of management decision-making. Third, this chapter describes the ABC’s slide into same field as Rupert Murdoch of commercial opinion and commentary and how the ABC failed to treasure its Bourdieusian cultural capital and develop frameworks, strategies, succession-planning, bulwarks and policies that would protect its values and reputation in this now primary, highly contested, yet seductive digital media field. The evolving, expanding commercial media field, like the universe itself, consists of a more random assortment of actors and factors than the Aunty could ever have dreamt. This chapter conducts a thematic content analysis of a prominent news story reported by the ABC where there were accusations of bias in the coverage. Ultimately, this research found it was the infiltration of opinion articles, creative writing and images on news pages, which also contained neutral court reports, that upset and compromised ABC impartiality as it competes in, and with, the commercial digital field.
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In light of the observed rise in social instability and populist politics that has emerged recently even in some of the world's oldest and presumed stable democracies, this paper reappraises the role of the neoliberal political and economic consensus in fermenting popular discontent. While this is very well trodden ground the paper approaches the issues from a wholly new direction, specifically addressing how exposure to the destabilizing conditions of the present can be seen to have negatively impacted on the neurological functioning of many of the disenchanted and distressed of the current era, generating chronic negative emotional arousal and an associated impact on the capacity for rational thought and conduct. This condition of mental and emotional fugue, it is argued, has also rendered growing numbers more susceptible to marginal and radicalizing discourses, largely extended and amplified via social media, and not least the emotionally charged overtures of populist politicians. Against a backdrop of increasing insecurity, transformative changes to work and living conditions precipitated by neoliberal policy and the digital revolution, together with the epochal crisis presented by the global pandemic, it is argued that the task of understanding the deep and fundamental causes of social and political fracture have rarely been more urgent.
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Überall wird von neuen agilen Arbeitswelten, Organisationen oder Projektmanagementmethoden gesprochen. Es entsteht der Eindruck alles und jeder möchte agiler werden . Doch was bedeutet überhaupt Agilität für Organisationen und welchen Einfluss hat dies auf die Mitarbeiter sowie das Lernen innerhalb von Unternehmen? Dieser Frage soll diese Arbeit nachgehen und in diesem Zusammenhang untersuchen, ob im Zuge der agilen Organisationsformen auch eine Veränderung hin zum selbstorganisierten Lernen stattfindet, was möglicherweise auch einen Einfluss auf die Arbeit der Personalentwicklung (PE), wie wir sie heute kennen, bedeutet.
Conference Paper
Our inquiry began by attempting to understand whether there are contexts in which human intuition consistently outperforms Artificial Intelligence (AI) in producing successful pathways for action. In order to figure this out, in this paper we distinguish between known, unknown (but knowable), and unknowable situations, using the Knightian uncertainty as our departure point. It appears that in the known realm, AI can outperform intuition, if used properly, while in the unknown both intuition and AI can be useful. By processing the data and identifying patters, AI can make an unknown setting known. In the unknowable realm, intuition, particularly intuitive wayfinding, may be our most promising mode of exploring, as AI does not have enough to work with. Therefore, we are particularly curious to explore whether human intuition may be a better tool than AI for exploring the unknowable, and we suggest that this is where intuition research should focus in the near future.
Chapter
Wir haben sowohl auf privater als auch auf beruflicher Ebene mit Menschen aus vielen verschiedenen Bereichen zu tun, von internationalen Wirtschaftsbossen bis zu Pflegepersonal, von Lehrern bis zu Gastronomen, von Psychotherapeuten bis zu Unternehmern. Viele haben das Gefühl, dass da etwas im Busch ist. Deshalb haben wir verschiedene Puzzleteile zusammengetragen, die ein recht gutes Bild davon abgeben, dass unser Wirtschafts- und Gesellschaftssystem bereits mitten in einer dramatischen und grundlegenden Veränderungswelle steckt. Weil diese Symptome der bevorstehenden Transformation einzeln für sich genommen weder besonders neu noch aufsehenerregend sind, wird die Veränderungswelle von vielen entweder noch gar nicht bemerkt oder bislang erfolgreich ausgeblendet. Das systemische Bild, das dabei entsteht, erlaubt uns jedoch den Versuch einer Diagnose.
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The world in which we live is over brimming with chaos and turbulence. Unpredictability has become the order of the day. Everything around us seems to be in a state of continuous flux. We are trapped in the vortex of an unending cyclone of change. The very existence of humankind is in a state of dynamic equilibrium, so to say. We as a species are striving and struggling to survive in a world that can at best be summarily described by a four-letter acronym called VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous). The world in general and the corporate world in particular needs to thinks about devising concrete strategies to overcome the challenges offered by these four dominant characteristic waves sweeping the environment. The paper aims to understand the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity inherent in the environment in detail, to analyse the challenges offered by them and to finally explore the solutions to overcome these challenges.
Article
The situation of the contemporary world possesses such features that can be denoted by the acronym VUCA: volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. The fundamental nonlinearity of the development of both nature and society turns into the inconsistency of the future with the usual and anticipated ideas of the humankind – and into changes in the philosophical understanding of the essence and strategies of higher education. Under the conditions of instability and unpredictability, any «ready-made» knowledge is irrelevant, it is quickly becoming obsolete; subsequently, the knowledge and skills acquired by a graduate of a higher education institution are no longer decisive for his or her competence: their place is rather being taken by the ability to create new forms of knowledge and skills in accordance with rapidly changing circumstances. In other words, in obedience to the human-dimensionality of the post-classical type of rationality, in a situation of uncertainty and risk, the human personality, the level of his or her general cultural development becomes especially valuable, – and the task of higher education becomes to educate a person capable of living in a world of complexity and uncertainty, capable of evaluating all the risks in a much wider perspective than any one single discipline or professional field. An important factor in this task is the transition to student-centered learning, i.e., focusing the educational process on student personality, but on teacher personality as well – contrary to the linear-modern orientation on the formality of learning, on standard, stable and constant educational trajectories. And it is philosophy that now possesses particular importance in the structure of the educational process, as a factor of successful formation of a full-fledged personality of a HEI graduate, able to deal with new, unusual things and phenomena - in other words, able to think creatively, critically and independently.
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This paper examines the impact of natural and human-made hazards on payroll, GDP, employment, and establishment survival/creation in the year of hazard occurrence in the U.S. economy and more specifically in the U.S. manufacturing/goods producing industry. Many of the papers that examine economic impacts of hazards consider upstream impacts of supply chain disruption. Measures of downstream impacts are often limited, particularly in measuring the short-term impacts. This paper examines how manufacturers and other establishments are impacted, at the industry and total economy level, by a disruption in supplies of goods with low substitutability, which is often referred to as the ripple effect. In this paper, eight models are developed to explore supply chain vulnerability, at the industry-level, to hazard events across geographic areas of the U.S. during the 2005 to 2016 time period. The most severe impacts are due to hazards in the manufacturing/goods industry supply chain, where payroll, GDP, and employment declined 2.9 %, 3.9 %, and 8.6 %, respectively. For all establishments, payroll and employment declined 5.3 % and 3.0 %, respectively. The results further suggest that the compound effect of hazards through the supply chain possibly exceeds that of the local hazard (i.e., direct impact). This can create an incentive misalignment. The establishment that invests in mitigation efforts and experiences the hazard locally does not directly experience the majority of the net benefit. The findings also suggest there is a need to better understand the short-term downstream impacts from all hazards, especially at the aggregated national level.
Article
In the current strategic environment, Morris Janowitz’s The Professional Soldier deserves renewed emphasis, especially from the military’s senior leaders who are responsible for the education and development of the country’s officer corps. Janowitz’s work is an especially valuable guide to the education of officers today because of his focus on the need for military officers to understand the political impact of military posture and military operations. The education of U.S. military officers to meet the country’s national security needs in the 21st century must go beyond Huntington’s formulation of expertise to an appreciation, in Janowitz’s terms, of “the political and social impact of the military establishment on international security affairs” across the spectrum of conflict. Janowitz’s formulation is the better guide because military means serve political purposes, and ultimately, a country’s strategic success will be judged in political terms.
Technical Report
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Today's challenges-such as automation, climate change, ageing populations, pandemics, and deployment of artificial intelligence-have unpredictable and unintended consequences at both global and individual levels. Complex systems have become the norm rather than the exception. In this environment, "reactive" approaches to policy making have increasingly proven ineffective. Waiting until a crisis has struck to start imagining a way out of it can be far most costly (in both human and financial terms) than anticipating and preparing for the crisis before it occurs. As the health crisis due to the spread of COVID-19 has clearly demonstrated, we need to invest in anticipation. To bridge this gap, governments need a new approach to policymaking that enables them to effectively address complex problems and uncertainty with new tools and instruments. This approach should be future-oriented, but also involve an action-oriented, innovation function based on anticipation. Despite the fact that foresight tools are increasingly integrated into policymaking, governments often lack a practical understanding of how to anticipate uncertain futures but also how to act on them today to achieve desired outcomes. This paper introduces the concept of anticipation and discusses the emerging practice around anticipatory innovation governance as a broad-based capacity governments can use to spur on innovations (defined as novel to the context, implemented and value shifting products, services and processes) connected to uncertain futures in the hopes of shaping the former through the innovative practice. This makes it different from traditional anticipation approaches: the aim is to not only create knowledge about what might happen, but also shape and prepare for it through innovation. This paper provides an initial overview of anticipatory innovation governance within the context of academic and policy discussions on the future of policymaking. It discusses how such an approach turns the policymaking process on its head. Rather than policy determining the activities of individuals and groups within a system, individual experiments contribute to shaping policy and its effectiveness. This is done by outlining the parameters around which policymakers wish to make change and then by conducting one or more series of experiments testing and iterating on these parameters continuously with individuals or groups that would be affected and in a real world setting. As a result, governments are able to move towards their ideal future not by simply anticipating potential outcomes and developing innovative policy approaches to address them, but by taking action to ensure that these policy approaches work. This paper builds on an extensive literature review on complexity and policymaking and OECD work in the area of policy innovation, system thinking, anticipation, emerging technology and foresight. The paper also draws on the discussion with experts from national governments and international organisations conducted by the Observatory of Public Sector Innovation.
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Las nuevas técnicas de neuroimagen nos están permitiendo explorar con gran precisión el com- portamiento cerebral humano a nivel anatómico y electromagnético. Desde la creación del “Proyecto Brain” auspiciado por Obama (2001) la inves- tigación neurocientífica en todo el mundo está aportando enfoques innovadores, que cuando son observados desde el prisma de la educación, adquieren si cabe, una relevancia mayor de cara a desarrollar metodologías de aprendizaje que ope- ren a favor de la mecánica operacional de nuestro cerebro. De esto se deriva la necesidad de reacon- dicionar las estructuras educativas para facilitar el desarrollo de una pedagogía coherente con las evidencias científicas. Nuestro objetivo es analizar cuál es el modelo predominante en el sistema educativo ante la gestión de fallos para poder definir así un modelo de enseñanza más eficiente. Para ello compara- mos dichas dinámicas con las aportaciones que la neurociencia cognitiva nos ofrece. Con ello es- tablecemos la influencia que puede llegar a tener una visión negativa de los errores para las futuras experiencias de aprendizaje. Las conclusiones se construyen desde en el principio de que nuestro cerebro necesita errar para establecer de forma correcta el aprendizaje y que por tanto, evitarlos, entenderlos como algo negativo, dificulta la ad- quisición de esta capacidad y de la búsqueda de situaciones nuevas que requieran el manejo del binomio ensayo y error en todos los ámbitos de la vida.
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