Characterization of meteorological droughts in the Haouz plain in Morocco: an analysis over the period 1984-2023

Abstract

Groundwater plays a crucial role in the Moroccan context, representing a vital resource for the country's socioeconomic development. However, the growing demand for water for domestic, agricultural, recreational and industrial needs is exposing this resource to significant pressures, making it particularly vulnerable, especially in the face of drought, which is proving to be a more devastating catastrophe than other natural hazards. This research focuses on the characterization of meteorological droughts in the Haouz plain, one of Morocco's largest aquifer regions, covering some 6 200 km2, with Marrakech as its capital. In this region with its arid to semi-arid climate, groundwater is the only available resource. The study is based on the analysis of temperature and precipitation, with the aim of monitoring the evolution of these factors between 1984 and 2023. The distribution of weather stations from the east to the west of the region was examined to determine climatic variations and assess the visibility of the climate change signal. The results of meteorological analysis over a 37-year period reveal that the Haouz plain is highly exposed to successive years of drought, particularly marked from 1998 to 2023. This period was characterized by a predominance of dry years over wet ones. These meteorological changes increase the risk of intensive groundwater exploitation to satisfy human needs and socioeconomic objectives.

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4th International Conference on
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November 20-21, 2023 : Konya, Turkey
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© 2023 Published by AS-Proceedings
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Characterization of meteorological droughts in the Haouz plain in
Morocco: an analysis over the period 1984-2023
Khadija Lamrani*, Ahmed Algouti 1, Abdelhalim Tabit 1, Fatiha Hadach2, Naji Jdaba2, Kaouthar
Majdouli1, Mohammed Lakhlili 1, Yahya Laadimi 1, Khadija Oudour1
1 laboratory: Geosciences, Geotourism, Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing/faculty of science Semlalia, University Cadi
Ayyad, Morocco
2laboratory: Geosciences, Environment and Geomatic/ faculty of science Agadir Ibno Zohr, Morocco
*lamranikhadija517@gmail.com
Abstract – Groundwater plays a crucial role in the Moroccan context, representing a vital resource for the
country's socio-economic development. However, the growing demand for water for domestic, agricultural,
recreational and industrial needs is exposing this resource to significant pressures, making it particularly
vulnerable, especially in the face of drought, which is proving to be a more devastating catastrophe than
other natural hazards.
This research focuses on the characterization of meteorological droughts in the Haouz plain, one of
Morocco's largest aquifer regions, covering some 6 200 km2, with Marrakech as its capital. In this region
with its arid to semi-arid climate, groundwater is the only available resource. The study is based on the
analysis of temperature and precipitation, with the aim of monitoring the evolution of these factors between
1984 and 2023. The distribution of weather stations from the east to the west of the region was examined
to determine climatic variations and assess the visibility of the climate change signal.
The results of meteorological analysis over a 37-year period reveal that the Haouz plain is highly exposed
to successive years of drought, particularly marked from 1998 to 2023. This period was characterized by a
predominance of dry years over wet ones. These meteorological changes increase the risk of intensive
groundwater exploitation to satisfy human needs and socio-economic objectives.
Keywords – Haouz plain, meteorological drought, Precipitation, Temperatures, groundwater, GIS and remote sensing.
I. INTRODUCTION
The Haouz plain is located in south-central
Morocco, bordered to the south and east by the High
Atlas range, whose highest point reaches 4165
meters. To the north, it is bordered by the hills of the
Jebilets massif, while to the west, the Oulad Bou
Sbâa plateaus mark its limits (fig.1). The structure
of this area is divided into three distinct parts: the
western part, with a surface area of 2,800 km2, is
bounded to the east by the Oued
N'fis and to the west by the eastern edge of the
Oulad Bou Sbâa plateaus. The central Haouz, which
encompasses the city of Marrakech over an area of
2,300 km2, is crossed by the Zat, Issil and Rheraya
wadis. Finally, the eastern part covers 1,700 km2
and is crossed by the Lakhdar, Tassaout and R'dat
wadis.

2
2Geologically, Haouz is a very subsident
sedimentation basin on the southern side, with
formations dating from the Paleozoic to the
Quaternary. The region has a semi-arid continental
climate, with average annual rainfall of around 300
mm. Average monthly temperatures range from
17°C to 20°C.
Fig 1: Location of study area
II. MATERIALS AND METHOD
The analysis of meteorological drought in the
Haouz plain is based on an in-depth examination of
terrestrial data, in particular precipitation and
temperature records over an extended period. The
study is based on monthly and annual analysis of
temperature and precipitation data. It is based on
stations spread across the entire study area, offering
a comprehensive perspective on the evolution of
drought, from the eastern to the western part.
The methodology adopted involves the use of
graphs illustrating the variation of these parameters
over time. These graphs provide a visual
representation of monthly and annual trends in
temperature and precipitation, offering an in-depth
understanding of the climatic patterns specific to the
Haouz region.
In summary, this methodological approach
combines monthly and annual statistical analysis
with graphical and cartographic representation,
providing a comprehensive and detailed
understanding of the evolution of meteorological
drought in the Haouz plain over an extended period.
A. used stations
To carry out an in-depth analysis of drought in
this region, we considered three specific weather
stations. The first station is located in Sidi Rahal in
the eastern part, the second in Marrakech in the
center, and the third in Chichaoua in the western
part. By choosing these strategic locations, we aim
to obtain a comprehensive representation of weather
conditions in the study area, enabling a thorough
and nuanced assessment of drought. Each station
contributes specific data which, when analyzed
together, will offer a holistic view of drought trends
and variations in the region.
Tab 1: table of measuring stations{1}
B. graphs of precipitation and temperature
variations at measuring stations
1. Temperatures
Fig 2 : Graph of temperature variation at the Sidi Rahal
Sidi
Rahal
Marrakech
Chichaoua
X
30310
25000
18153
Y
11780
116667
11120
Average
Rainfall
342,1
214,3
171,2
Average
temperatures
15,8
18,64
18,97
14
14,5
15
15,5
16
16,5
17
17,5
T°C

3
Fig3 : Graph of temperature variation at the Marrakech
station
Fig4 : Graph of temperature variation at the Chichaoua
station
2. Rainfall
3. Precipitation-temperature relation
16,5
17
17,5
18
18,5
19
19,5
20
20,5
T°C
17
17,5
18
18,5
19
19,5
20
20,5
T°C
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
1984/85
1987/88
1990/91
1993/94
1996/97
1999/00
2002/03
2005/06
2008/09
2011/12
2014/15
2017/18
2020/21
P(MM)
Fig 5 : Graph of Rainfall variation at the Sidi Rahal station
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0
400,0
1984/85
1987/88
1990/91
1993/94
1996/97
1999/00
2002/03
2005/06
2008/09
2011/12
2014/15
2017/18
2020/21
P(MM)
Fig 6 : Graph of Rainfall variation at the Marrakech station
30,0
80,0
130,0
180,0
230,0
280,0
330,0
1984/85
1987/88
1990/91
1993/94
1996/97
1999/00
2002/03
2005/06
2008/09
2011/12
2014/15
2017/18
2020/21
P(MM)
Fig 7 : Graph of Rainfall variation at the Chichaoua station
Fig8: Umbrothermal diagram for the Sidi Rahal station

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III. RESULTS
A close look at the graphical data on precipitation
and temperature over a 37-year period for the three
stations on the Haouz plain reveals a significant
trend towards rising temperatures, combined with a
marked decrease in precipitation in recent years.
This marks a substantial change in the region's
climatic conditions over time. In-depth analysis of
the graphs highlights this climatic dynamic,
underlining the importance of understanding long-
term variations in order to grasp the impact of these
changes on the local ecosystem.
IV. DISCUSSION
Reduced rainfall and rising temperatures clearly
indicate the establishment of a period of
meteorological drought in the Haouz plain. This
meteorological drought has potentially worrying
implications, particularly with regard to
groundwater balance, which is of crucial importance
for our study area.
It is essential to note that reduced rainfall can lead
to a significant reduction in groundwater recharge,
thus compromising the availability of groundwater
resources. Groundwater plays a vital role in
maintaining the region's hydrological balance,
providing a sustainable source of water for a variety
of needs, such as agricultural irrigation and drinking
water supply.
At the same time, rising temperatures can intensify
evaporation phenomena, increasing pressure on
groundwater reserves. At the same time, drought
can lead to overexploitation of water resources,
where demand exceeds the natural recharge
capacity of aquifers. This can result in a rapid
decline in groundwater levels, compromising the
long-term sustainability of these resources.
V. CONCLUSION
Falling rainfall and rising temperatures indicate the
onset of a meteorological drought in the Haouz
plain. This drought could disrupt the balance of
groundwater, which is crucial to our study area. Of
course, other factors, such as overexploitation of
water resources due to drought, may also have an
influence on these reserves.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors are extremely grateful to the Director
of the Laboratory of Geosciences, Geotourism,
Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing/Faculty of
Sciences Semlalia in Marrakech, Cadi Ayyad
University, Morocco for their constant
encouragement and support in this study. The
authors would like to thank the Agence du bassin
hydraulique du Tensift.
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