Content uploaded by Beate Conrady
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Beate Conrady on Dec 31, 2023
Content may be subject to copyright.
!"#$%&'(&'#)*%'($(+',"%&+&('%"+$%)-*%.(()%&(('%'(/#(0(12%34(,*'-)#,%,-&5%+/+#4+.4(%+*6%
"7&$688&+&('$2$$')2,-98$-4:8&+&('$2,;9<+.$*'+,*=#1>?@A?BB?%
Social network analysis reveals the failure of between-farm movement restrictions 1
to reduce Salmonella transmission 2
3
4
B. Conrady1,2*, E.H. Dervic2,3, P. Klimek2,3,4, L. Pedersen1,5, M. Merhi Reimert1, P. 5
Rasmussen1, O.O. Apenteng1, and L.R. Nielsen1 6
7
1!"#$%&'(#)'!*+!,#'#&-)%&.!%)/!0)-(%1!23-#)3#45!6)-7#&4-'.!*+!8*$#)9%:#)5!;&<))#:=&/47#>!?5!@?AB!8
C&#/#&-D4E#&:!85!"#)(%&D!9
2!8*($1#F-'.!23-#)3#!GHE!,-#))%5!I*4#+4'J/'#&!2'&%K#!LM5!@B?B!,-#))%5!0H4'&-%!10
3!2H$$1.!89%-)!N)'#11-:#)3#!N)4'-'H'#!0H4'&-%5!I*4#+4'J/'#&!2'&%K#!LM5!@B?B!,-#))%5!0H4'&-%!11
4 2#3'-*)!+*&!23-#)3#!*+!8*($1#F!2.4'#(45!O#/-3%1!6)-7#&4-'.!*+!,-#))%5!2$-'%1:%44#!PL5!@BMB!12
,-#))%5!0H4'&-%!13
5!2Q;Q2!N))*7%'-*)!RS25!2D#>E.5!0:&*!C**/!R%&D!@T5!?PBB!0%&9H4!U5!"#)(%&D!!14
!15
V8*&$*)/-):!%H'9*&W!X#%'#!8*)&%/.5!E3*)Y4H)/ZDHZ/D5!R9*)#W![\TLTLPPLBM!16
17
ABSTRACT 18
19
0)!-)3&#%4-):!)H(E#&!*+!3*H)'&-#4!%&#!-)7#4'-:%'-):!*$'-*)4!'*!4'*$!'9#!4$&#%/!*+!'9#!#(#&:-):!20
]**)*'-3!-)+#3'-*)!Salmonella!^SZ_!"HE1-)5!`9-39!(%-)1.!4$&#%/4!%(*):!E*7-)#4!%)/!`-'9!3%a1#!(%)H&#Z!21
"#'%-1#/! 4H&7#-11%)3#! %)/! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! /%'%! +&*(! %)! @@b.#%&! $#&-*/! -)! "#)(%&D! $&*7-/#/! %)!22
*$$*&'H)-'.!'*!:%-)!)#`! D)*`1#/:#!+*&!(-'-:%'-*)!*$'-*)4! '9&*H:9! %!3*(E-)#/!4*3-%1! )#'`*&D! %)/!23
4-(H1%'-*)!(*/#11-):! %$$&*%39Z!c9#! %)%1.4-4! #%1#/!4-(-1%&! )#'`*&D!'&#)/4! +*&! )*)b-)+#3'#/!%)/!24
-)+#3'#/!3%a1#!+%&(4!/#4$-'#!4'&-):#)'!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)4!-($*4#/!*)!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!-)!'9#!25
)%'-*)%1!3*)'&*1! $&*:&%((#Z! c9#! 4'&*):#4'!$&#/-3'-7#! +%3'*&! +*&!+%&(4! E#3*(-):! -)+#3'#/! `%4! '9#-&!26
3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! %3'-7-'-#4! -)! '9#! $-*H4! (*)'95! `-'9! '`-3#! '9#! #d#3'! *+!1*3%1! '&%)4(-44-*)Z! c9#!27
4-(H1%'-*)!(*/#1!-)/-3%'#/!%)!#)/#(-3!SZ!"HE1-)!*33H&&#)3#5!`-'9!$#%D4!-)!*H'E&#%D!$&*E%E-1-'-#4!%)/!28
4-]#4!%&*H)/!*E4#&7#/!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'-#4Z!c9#&#+*!$&#b%)/!$*4'b(*7#(#)'!(#%4H!`-'9-)!29
%!@b(*)'9!'-(#b`-)/*`!(%.!9#1$!&#/H3#!S. "HE1-)!4$&#%/Z!30
!31
Keywords: 8*)'&*1!(#%4He!f-7#4'*3D!(*7#(#)'4e!Salmonella!"HE1-)e!2-(H1%'-*)!O*/#1e!U#'`*&D!32
%)%1.4-4!33
!34
!35
! !36
!37
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
2
INTRODUCTION 38
!39
Salmonella!enterica!4HE4$#3-#4!enterica!4#&*7%&!"HE1-)!^SZ!"HE1-)_!/-d#&4!+&*(!*'9#&!Salmonella!40
4#&*7%&4!E.!E#-):!9*4'b%/%$'#/!'*!3%a1#Z!g**)*'-3!-)+#3'-*)4!(%.!E#!%3hH-&#/!E.!/-'!3*)'%3'!`-'9!41
3%a1#5!+%#3%1!(%a#&5!*&!'9&*H:9!-):#4'-*)!*+!H)$%4'#H&-4#/!(-1D!$&*/H3'4!%)/S*&!3*)4H($'-*)!*+!42
3*)'%(-)%'#/!E##+! $&*/H3'4!^G#)/#&4*)!%)/! O%4*)5! PB@A_Z!c9#!-)+#3'-*)! -4!%! 4#&-*H4!#(#&:-):!43
]**)*4-4!'9%'!9%4!E##)!&#$*&'#/!'*!E#!4$&#%/-):!-)'*!)#`!:#*:&%$9-3%1! %&#%4!-)! U*&'9!0(#&-3%5!44
`-'9!&#$*&'4!*+!(H1'-b/&H:!-4'%)'!4'&%-)4!#(#&:-):!-)!'9#!4%(#!&#:-*)4!^O3"*)*H:9!#'!%1Z5!@MMMe!45
2&#/)-D!#'!%1Z5!PBP@e!R#&&.!#'! %1Z5!PBPL_Z!c9-4!(%.!1#%/!'*! -)3&#%4-):!9H(%)!9#%1'9!3*)4#hH#)3#45!46
4H39!%4!H)'&#%'%E1#5!4#7#&#!-)7%4-7#!-)+#3'-*)4!`-'9!%!9-:9!3%4#b+%'%1-'.!&-4D!^G#1(4!!#'!%1Z5!PBBL_5!-)!47
%//-'-*)!'*!%)-(%1!`#1+%&#!%)/!#3*)*(-3!1*44#4!/H#!'*!/#3&#%4#/!3%a1#!$&*/H3'-7-'.!^U-#14#)!#'!%1Z5!48
PB@L_Z!49
O*&#!'9%)!@B5BBB!9H(%)!Salmonella!3%4#4!*33H&&#/!-)!"#)(%&D!-)!'9#!$#&-*/!PB@LbPBPL5!%)/!50
PZLi!*+!'9#4#!`#&#!SZ!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)4!(%-)1.!%a&-EH'#/!'*!3%a1#!%)/!E##+!$&*/H3#/!-)!"#)(%&D5!51
#F31H/-):!'&%7#1!%'#/!3%4#4!^jH/-&D-#)#!#'!%1Z5!PBPBe!22N!PBPL_Z!c*!4%+#:H%&/!%)-(%1!%)/!$HE1-3!52
9#%1'95! 7*1H)'%&.! 4H&7#-11%)3#! #d*&'4! -)! '9#! 3%a1#! 4#3'*&! ^-Z#Z5! $&*>#3'4! %)/! 3*((H)-3%'-*)!53
3%($%-:)4_!`#&#!-($1#(#)'#/!-)!PBBB5!`-'9!%!)%'-*)%1!#&%/-3%'-*)!$&*:&%((#!#4'%E1-49#/!-)!PBB?!54
`-'9!'9#!%-(!*+!#&%/-3%'-):!SZ!"HE1-)!+&*(!'9#!"%)-49!3%a1#!$*$H1%'-*)!E.!'9#!#)/!*+!PB@\Z!N)!'9-4!55
3*)'#F'5! )#`! 1#:-41%'-*)! `%4! -($1#(#)'#/! -)! PB@B! `-'9! 3*)4#hH#)3#4! +*&! 3%a1#! $&*$#&'-#4! '9%'!56
'#4'#/!$*4-'-7#!+*&!S.!"HE1-)!^XQj!)*Z!@APL!PPS@PSPB@B_Z!2-)3#!'9#!-($1#(#)'%'-*)5!'9#!1#:-41%'-*)!57
9%4! E##)! 39%):#/! %)/! '-:9'#)#/! 4#7#&%1! '-(#4Z! "#4$-'#! %11! (-'-:%'-*)! #d*&'4! 4H39! %4! 3%a1#!58
(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)4!E#'`##)!SZ!"HE1-)!'#4'b$*4-'-7#!%)/!'#4'b)#:%'-7#!3%a1#!+%&(4!4-)3#!PB@B5!%)!59
-)3&#%4#! -)! '9#! %$$%&#)'! $%1#)3#! 9%4! E##)! *E4#&7#/! 4-)3#! PB@TZ! C*&! -)4'%)3#5! '9#! %$$%&#)'!60
$%1#)3#!*+ SZ!"HE1-)! '#4'b$*4-'-7#!+%&(4!-)! '9#!/%-&.! 4#3'*&!9%4! )#%&1.!/*HE1#/!+&*(! kZPi!'*!61
@@ZTi!-)! '9#! $#&-*/!+&*(! PB@T! '*! PBPL! ^f##D-'39%&*#)$9*)!#'! %1Z5! PBPLe! 2Q;Q2! 3*((H)-3%'-*)5!62
PBPL_Z!!63
c9#!4H&7#-11%)3#! %)/! #&%/-3%'-*)! $&*:&%((#! -)-'-%11.! :&*H$#/!3%a1#! $&*$#&'-#4! -)'*! *)#! *+!64
'9&##!1#7#14W!Level 1!^(*4'!1-D#1.!)*'!-)+#3'#/!`-'9!S. "HE1-)_5!Level 2!^1-D#1.!-)+#3'#/!`-'9!S. "HE1-)_!65
%)/!Level 3!^S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)!/#'#3'#/_!E%4#/!*)!4#&*1*:-3%1!'#4'-):!*+!EH1D!'%)D!(-1D!^XcO_!%)/!66
E1**/!4%($1#45!%4!`#11!%4!E%3'#&-*1*:-3%1!3H1'H!(*4'1.!'#4'#/!H$*)!31-)-3%1!4H4$-3-*)Z!G*`#7#&5!67
(*7#(#)'!*+!3%a1#!`-'9-)!%!'#4'b$*4-'-7#!(H1'-b4-'#!EH4-)#44!^-Z#Z5!(*7#(#)'4!E#'`##)!*`)b+%&(!68
$&*$#&'-#4_!`%4!%11*`#/5!EH'!)*'!'*!*'9#&!+%&(45!`9-1#!'#4'b)#:%'-7#!+%&(4!3*H1/!+&##1.!(*7#!3%a1#!69
^U-#14#)!#'!%1Z5!PBP@_Z!l)#!(%>*&!3*)'&*1!(#%4H&#!'9%'!`%4!%a#($'#/!+*&!%!1-(-'#/!$#&-*/!^BASPB@Lb70
@@SPB@A_!`%4!m&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)n5!-)!`9-39!'`*!%/(-)-4'&%'-7#!:#*:&%$9-3%1!&#:-*)4!`#&#!/#o)#/!%4!71
9-:9b! %)/! 1*`b$%1#)3#5! $#3'-7#1.!^C-:H&#! 2@_Z! 2'&-3'! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! '&-3'-*)4! `#&#!72
-($1#(#)'#/!$#)'-):!3%a1#!+&*(! '9#! 9-:9b$%1#)3#!&#:-*)! E#-):!(*7#/!+*&!1-7#!H4#!'*! '9#!73
1*`b$%1#)3#!&#:-*)5!#F3#$'!+*&!3%17#4!+&*(!f#7#1!@b+%&(4!(*7#/!+*&!+%a#)-):!'*!%!31*4#/!+%&(!74
%)/!:*-):!4'&%-:9'!'*!41%H:9'#&Z!c% E1 #! 2@! $&* 7- /# 4! % ! /# '% -1#/! /# 43 &- $' -* )! * +! '9#! 4H& 7# -1 1% )3#! %)/!75
3*)'&*1! $&*:&%((#! `-'9! %)! *7#&7-#`! *+! 1#:-41%'-7#! 39%):#4! *7#&! '-(#5! `-'9! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'!76
'&-3'-*)4!%)/!'#4'!&#hH-&#(#)'4!*7#&!'9#!$#&-*/!PB@BbPBPB!-)!"#)(%&DZ!!77
N)! +%3#! *+! '9#! -)3&#%4-):! -)3-/#)3#!*+! SZ! "HE1-)! -)+#3'-*)4! -)! '9#! "%)-49! 3%a1#! $*$H1%'-*)5!78
/#4$-'#!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)4!*H'!*+!'#4'b$*4-'-7#!3%a1#!EH4-)#44#45!'9#&#!`%4!%!)##/!'*!E#a#&!79
H)/#&4'%)/!'9#! &*1#4!*+! (*7#(#)'b%'#/! 4$&#%/! E#'`##)! 3%a1#! +%&(4! %)/! 1*3%1! 4$&#%/5! %4! S.!80
"HE1-)!E%3'#&-%!3%)!%14*!4H&7-7#!*H'4-/#!*+! '9#! 9*4'!+*&!%!1*):!$#&-*/Z!2'H/.!*+! '9#! )#'`*&D4!*+!81
3%a1#! (*7#(#)'4! $&*7-/#4! %! (#%)4! +*&! H)/#&4'%)/-):! '9#! /.)%(-34! *+! /-4#%4#4! '9&*H:9! '9#!82
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
3
)#'`*&D4!%)/!/#o)-):!#d#3'-7#!(-'-:%'-*)!(#%4H!^"HEp5!#'!%1Z5!PBBMe!R-)-*&!#'!%1Z5!PB@P%5Ee!R-)-*&!83
#'!%1Z5!PB@Te!f#E1!#'!%1Z5!PB@ke!f#)q!#'!%1Z5!PB@ke!j)-o3!#'!%1Z5!PBPB_Z!c9H45!'9#!*E>#3'-7#4!*+!'9-4!4'H/.!84
`#&#W!i) '*!:%-)!-)4-:9'!-)'*!'9#!4'&H3'H&#!*+!'9#!%)-(%1!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D!E#'`##)!SZ!"HE1-)!'#4'b85
$*4-'-7#! ^&#+#&&#/! '*! %4! -)+#3'#/_! %)/!'#4'b)#:%'-7#! ^&#+#&&#/! '*! %4! )*)b-)+#3'#/_! 3%a1#! +%&(4!-)!86
"#)(%&D! E.! $#&+*&(-):! %! )#'`*&D! %)%1.4-4! *)! /%'%! +&*(! '9#! $#&-*/! PB@BbPBPB5! /H&-):! `9-39!87
(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)4!`#&#!-($1#(#)'#/!E#'`##)!-)+#3'#/!%)/!)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(4e!ii) '*!hH%)'-+.!88
'9#!-($%3'!*+!/-'!3*)'%3'!'9&*H:9!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!7#&4H4!1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)4!*)!'9#!4$&#%/!*+!89
SZ! "HE1-)e! iii)!'*! 4-(H1%'#! '9#! 4$&#%/! *+! SZ! "HE1-)! '9&*H:9! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! )#'`*&D4! H4-):! %!90
4'*39%4'-3!#$-/#(-*1*:-3%1!3*($%&'(#)'%1-4%'-*)!(*/#11-):!'#39)-hH#Z!c9-4!1%4'!*E>#3'-7#!%-(#/!'*!91
/#'#&(-)#! '9#! SZ! "HE1-)! *H'E&#%D! $&*E%E-1-'.5! 4-]#! %)/! /H&%'-*)!E%4#/! *)!*E4#&7#/! 3%a1#!92
(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D!%3'-7-'-#4! %)/!%! &%):#! *+!9.$*'9#'-3%1!(*7#(#)'! %3'-7-'-#4! E#'`##)!"%)-49!93
3%a1#! +%&(4Z! c9-4! $%$#&! -11H4'&%'#4! 9*`! 4H&7#-11%)3#! %)/! (*7#(#)'! /%'%! 3*(E-)#/! `-'9! %)!94
%/7%)3#/! /%'%! 43-#)3#! %$$&*%39!3%)! $&*7-/#! (#%)-):+H1! H1'4! +*&! /#3-4-*)b(%D#&4! -)! '9#!95
$1%))-):!*+!'%&:#'!4H&7#-11%)3#!%3'-7-'-#4!%)/!:H-/#!$*'#)'-%1!%/%$'%'-*)4!*+!(-'-:%'-*)!(#%4H!96
%'#/!'*!%)-(%1!(*7#(#)'4!'*!&#/H3#!'9#!$%1#)3#!*+!-)+#3'-*)!-)!%)-(%1!$*$H1%'-*)4Z!97
!98
!99
!100
!101
!102
!103
!104
!105
!106
!107
!108
!109
!110
!111
! !112
!113
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
4
MATERIAL AND METHODS 114
Data 115
116
"%'%! H4#/! -)! '9-4! 4'H/.! 3*7#&#/! '9#! $#&-*/! B@SB@SPB@BbL@S@PSPBPB! %)/! 3*)4-4'#/! *+! +*H&! (%-)!117
/%'%4#'4W!i)!-)/-7-/H%1!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!E#'`##)!$&#(-4#4e!ii)!:#*3**&/-)%'#4!%)/!*$#)-):!%)/!31*4-):!118
/%'#4!*+!$&#(-4#4!%)/!9#&/4! *)!'9#!$&#(-4#4e!iii)!3*($*4-'-*)!*+!%)-(%14!$#&!$&#(-4#e!iv)!)%'-*)%1!S.!119
"HE1-)!4H&7#-11%)3#!'#4'!H1'4!-)31H/-):!31%44-o3%'-*)! *+!%11!3%a1#!$&#(-4#4!-)'*!*)#!*+!'9&##!1#7#14W!120
Level 1!^(*4'!1-D#1.!)*'!-)+#3'#/!`-'9!S. "HE1-)_5!Level 2!^1-D#1.!-)+#3'#/!`-'9!S. "HE1-)_!%)/!Level 3!^S.!121
"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)!/#'#3'#/_Z!c9#!/-d#&#)'!/%'%4#'4!`#&#!3*(E-)#/!E%4#/!*)!'9#!-)/-7-/H%1!$&#(-4#4!%)/!122
9#&/! -/#)'-o3%'-*)! )H(E#&4Z! 011! /%-1.! *&/4! *+! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'4! `-'9-)! "#)(%&D! -)31H/#/! '9#!123
H)-hH#!-/#)'-o#&!*+!'9#!-)/-7-/H%1!3%a1#!-)7*17#/5!/%'#!*+!'9#!#7#)'5!'.$#!*+!(*7#(#)'5!$&#(-4#4!%)/!124
9#&/!-/#)'-'.!*+!-'4!4*H&3#!%)/!/#4'-)%'-*)Z!c9#!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!%&#!&#:-4'#&#/!-)!'9#!8#)'&%1! G#&/!125
r#:-4'#&5!`9-39!-4!9*4'#/!E.!'9#!"%)-49!,#'#&-)%&.!%)/!C**/!0/(-)-4'&%'-*)Z!N)!'*'%15!#-:9'!$&*/H3'-*)!126
3%'#:*&-#4!`#&#!/#o)#/!%)/!%44-:)#/!'*!#%39!$&#(-4#4!E%4#/!*)!'9#!3*($*4-'-*)!%)/!)H(E#&!*+!3%a1#!127
$#&!$&#(-4#4!%'!'9#!(*)'91.!1#7#1!^c%E1#!@_Z!N)!'9-4!3*)'#F'5!*&/#/!$&*/H3'-*)!31%44-o3%'-*)4!*+!+%&(4!128
+&*(!'9#!*s3-%1!/%'%E%4#!`#&#!)*'!H4#/5!%4!'9#4#!31%44-o3%'-*)4!(%.!)*'!E#!4Hs3-#)'1.!H$/%'#/!E.!'9#!129
%)-(%1!*`)#&5! %)/! *H&!*`)! %)%1.4-4!4H::#4'#/! -($1%H4-E1#!39%):#4! -)! '9#! $&*/H3'-*)! 3%'#:*&.!*+!130
+%&(4!`-'9-)!%!.#%&!^C-:H&#!2P_Z!CH&'9#&5!*)1.!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!+&*(!$&#(-4#4!'9%'!`#&#!S.!"HE1-)!'#4'b131
$*4-'-7#! *&! '#4'b)#:%'-7#! '*! *'9#&! 3%a1#! +%&(! $&#(-4#4! `#&#! 3*)4-/#&#/5!`-'9! (*7#(#)'4! E#'`##)!132
$&#(-4#4!'9%'!`#&#!)*'!3%a1#!+%&(4!#F31H/#/!^#Z:Z5!%E%a*-&4_Z!!133
!134
N)!%//-'-*)!'*!'9#!'9&##!*s3-%1!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)!1#7#14!^f@bLe!c%E1#!2@_5!*'9#&!S.!"HE1-)!1#7#14!`#&#!135
-)'&*/H3#/!%)/!&#(*7#/!*7#&!'9#!.#%&4!+*&!3*)'&*1!$&*:&%((#!$H&$*4#4!^#Z:Z5!f#7#1!@%!%)/!@E5!f#7#1!136
Pr5! c%E1#! 2@_Z! N)4'#%/! *+! H4-):! '9#! *s3-%1! 4H&7#-11%)3#! 31%44-o3%'-*)45! `9-39! `#&#! '#($*&%11.!137
-)3*)4-4'#)'5!'9#!+*11*`-):!+*H&!)#`!t-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4u!`#&#! 3&#%'#/!E%4#/! *)!'#4'bH1'4!^*&!1%3D!138
'9#&#*+_!-)!'9#!)%'-*)%1!4H&7#-11%)3#!/%'%E%4#!+*&!#%39!+%&(!*7#&!'9#!4'H/.!$#&-*/W!!139
!140
0_!U#:%'-7#!v!c#4'!)#:%'-7#!141
X_!R*4-'-7#!v!c#4'!$*4-'-7#!*&!1-D#1.!-)+#3'#/!/H#!'*!$H&39%4#5!31-)-3%1!4%1(*)#11*4-4!3%H4#/!E.!S. 142
"HE1-)!*&!E%3'#&-*1*:-3%1!3H1'H&#b$*4-'-7#!'#4'!H1'4!143
8_!6)D)*`)!v!6)*17#/!E%4#/!*)!%7%-1%E1#!-)+*&(%'-*)!144
"_!f-D#1.!)#:%'-7#!v!f-D#1.!H)-)+#3'#/!E%4#/!*)!%7%-1%E1#!-)+*&(%'-*)!145
!146
c9#4#! -)+#3'-*)! 3%'#:*&-#4! H1'#/! -)! %! (*&#! H)-+*&(! /-4'&-EH'-*)! *+! /%'%$*-)'4! $#&! -)+#3'-*)!147
3%'#:*&.Z!c9#!$&*3#/H&#!*+!'9#!3&#%'-*)!*+!'9#!+*H&!)#`!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!-4!49*`)!-)!c%E1#!2PZ!N)!'9#!148
)#'`*&D!%)%1.4-45!+%&(4!%44-:)#/!'*!3%'#:*&.!0!%)/!"!`#&#!3*)4-/#&#/!%4!SZ!"HE1-)!'#4'b!)#:%'-7#!+%&(4!149
%)/!&#+#&&#/!'*!%4!m)*)b-)+#3'#/n!+%&(45!%)/!'9*4#!%44-:)#/!'*!3%'#:*&-#4!X!%)/!8!`#&#!3*)4-/#&#/!%4!150
S.!"HE1-)!'#4'b$*4-'-7#!+%&(4!%)/!/#o)#/!%4!m-)+#3'#/n!+%&(4!-)!'9-4!4'H/.Z!N+!%!+%&(!9%/!'`*!/-d#&#)'!151
-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!`-'9-)!'9#!4%(#!$#&-*/!*&!`-'9-)!*7#&1%$$-):!$#&-*/45!'9#!`*&4'!^-Z#Z5!(*4'!4#7#&#_!152
-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!`%4!4#1#3'#/Z!!153
!154
!155
!156
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
5
Network analysis and association of S. Dublin infections with ca9le movements 157
and local transmissions 158
159
2'%'-35! /-'#/!%)/! `#-:9'#/! '&%/-):! )#'`*&D4! `#&#! 3*)4'&H3'#/! E%4#/! *)! -)/-7-/H%1! 3%a1#!160
(*7#(#)'4!E#'`##)! 4*H&3#! %)/! /#4'-)%'-*)! 3%a1#! +%&(4! -)! #%39! (*)'9! +&*(!'9#! $#&-*/! B@SPB@B! '*!161
@PSPBPB5!H1'-):! -)! %!'*'%1! *+! @LP!(*)'91.! (*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D4Z! U*/#4! -)! '9#! (*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D!162
&#$#)'! 3%a1#! +%&(4! '9%'! %&#! '&%/-):! 3%a1#! %)/! 1-)D4! E#'`##)! '9#! )*/#4! &#$#)'! 1-7#! 3%a1#!163
(*7#(#)'4Z!c9#!`#-:9'!*+!1-)D4!E#'`##)5!+*&!#F%($1#5!)*/#!0!%)/!X5!-4!'9#!)H(E#&!*+!(*7#/!3%a1#!164
E#'`##)! E*'9! )*/#4! /-7-/#/! E.! '*'%1! )H(E#&! *+! (*7#/! 3%a1#! +&*(! +%&(!0Z! C*&! #%39! *+! '9#! @LP!165
(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D45!/-d#&#)'!)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!`#&#!3%13H1%'#/!^c%E1#!P_!4#$%&%'#1.!+*&!-)+#3'#/!%)/!166
)*)b-)+#3'#/!3%a1#!+%&(4!%)/!+*&!E*'9!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!'*:#'9#&!^c%E1#!2L_Z!j*1(*:*&*7b2(-&)*7!167
^j2_!4'%'-4'-34!`#&#!3%13H1%'#/!'*!-)7#4'-:%'#!'9#!/#:&##!'9%'!"%)-49!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D4!%&#!43%1#b168
+&##5!%4!)#'`*&D4!'9%'!+*11*`4!%!$*`#&!1%`!/-4'&-EH'-*)!%&#!7H1)#&%E1#!'*!/-4&H$'-*)!`9#)!9-:9b/#:&##!169
)*/#4!%&#!&#(*7#/Z!c9#!$*`#&!1%`!/-4'&-EH'-*)4!`#&#!3*($%&#/!'*!1*:b)*&(%1!/-4'&-EH'-*)45!4##)!%4!170
'9#!(%-)!%1'#&)%'-7#!'*!$*`#&!1%`45!E.!*7#&1%.-):!'9#4#!/-4'&-EH'-*)4!*)!'9#!*&-:-)%1!/%'%!%)/!H4-):!%!171
1-D#1-9**/!&%'-*!'#4'!^c&%'%1*4!#'!%1Z5!PBPB_Z!C*&!'9#!j2!'#4'5!'9#!)H11!9.$*'9#4-4!`%4!'9%'!'9#!/-4'&-EH'-*)!172
+*11*`#/!%!$*`#&!1%`5!`-'9!9-:9#&!$b7%1H#4!-)/-3%'-):!%!E#a#&!o' ^c&%'%1*4!#'!%1Z5!PBPB_Z!173
OH1'-$1#! 1*:-4'-3! &#:,-*)! %)%1.4#4! `#&#! 3*)/H3'#/! '*! #F$1*&#! '9#! %'-*)49-$4! E#'`##)! '9#!174
$&*E%E-1-'.!*+!-)+#3'-*)!-)!'9#!k!(*)'94!+*11*`-):!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!`-'9-)!$#&-*/4!&%):-):!+&*(!@!'*!\!175
(*)'945!#F$*4H&#!'*!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!%)/!1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)45!`9-1#!3*)'&*11-):!+*&!'9#!-)/#$#)/#)'!176
7%&-%E1#4!^-Z#Z5!+%&(!4-]#5!(*)'9!*+!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!%)/!'*'%1!)#-:9E*H&9**/!4-]#!^)H(E#&!*+!+%&(4!-)!177
'9#!&%/-H4!*+!T!D(!%&*H)/!#%39!+%&(_!%)/!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4_Z!c9#!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!`%4!3%13H1%'#/!178
%4!%!E-)%&.!7%&-%E1#5!`9#&#!-'! `%4!#hH%1!'*!*)#! ^-)+#3'#/_! -+! -)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!`%4!X!^$*4-'-7#_!*&!8!179
^H)D)*`)_5!%)/! -'! `%4!#hH%1! '*!]#&*! ^)*'!-)+#3'#/_! -+!-)+#3'-*)! 4'%'H4!`%4!0!^)#:%'-7#_! *&! "! ^1-D#1.!180
)#:%'-7#_Z!l)1.!3%a1#!+%&(4!`-'9!/%'%!%7%-1%E1#!+*&!(*&#!'9%)!*)#!.#%&!`#&#!-)31H/#/!-)!'9#!4'%'-4'-3%1!181
%)%1.4-4Z!c9#!$&#/-3'*&!+*&!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!'&%)4(-44-*)!`%4!#F'&%3'#/!+&*(!'9#!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D4!182
%)/!`%4!%14*!E-)%&.5!`9#&#!'9#!#F$*4H&#!'*!'&%)4(-44-*)!*+!-)+#3'-*)!7-%!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!`%4!#hH%1!'*!183
*)#!-+!%!+%&(!#-7#/!%'!1#%4'!*)#!%)-(%1!+&*(!%)!-)+#3'#/!+%&(!'9%'!`%4!-/#)'-o#/!%4!-)+#3'#/!%+'#&!'9#!184
(*7#(#)'!-)!'9#!'-(#!`-)/*`!*+!@5!P5!L5!%)/!\!(*)'94Z!185
X#3%H4#!(*7#(#)'!/%'%!`%4!:&*H$#/!*)!%!(*)'91.!1#7#15!-'!`%4!$*44-E1#!'9%'!%)!H)-)+#3'#/!+%&(!186
#-7#/!3%a1#!+&*(!%)!-)+#3'#/!+%&(!%'!'9#!E#:-))-):!*+!'9#!(*)'95!EH'!1%'#&!-)!'9#!4%(#!(*)'95!'9#!187
4*H&3#!+%&(!39%):#/!-'4!4'%'H4!'*!-)+#3'#/Z!N)!'9-4!3%4#5!'9#!'%&:#'!+%&(!`%4!(%&D#/!%4!'&%/-):!`-'9!%)!188
-)+#3'#/! +%&(! -)! '9#! (*)'91.! (*7#(#)'! )#'`*&D4Z! f*3%1! '&%)4(-44-*)! *+! -)+#3'-*)! `%4! H4#/! %4! %!189
$&#/-3'*&!%)/! `%4! %14*! E-)%&.5!`9#&#!-'! `%4! #hH%1!'*! *)#!-+! %! +%&(! 9%4! 9%/! %)! -)+#3'#/!+%&(!-)! '9#!190
)#-:9E*H&9**/!^&%/-H4!T!D(_!-)!'9#!$-*H4!@5!P5!L5!%)/!\!(*)'94Z!N)!'*'%15!P\!/-d#&#)'!(H1'-$1#!1*:-4'-3!191
&#:,-*)!(*/#14!`#&#!&H)! $&#/-3'-):! S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)!7-%!3%a1#! (*7#(#)'4! E#'`##)!+%&(4!%)/!192
1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)4!-)!'9#!3*)4#3H'-7#!@!'*! k!(*)'94!E%4#/!*)!/%'%! +&*(! '9#!$-*H4!@5! P5! L5!%)/!\!193
(*)'94Z!194
!195
!196
!197
!198
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
6
Modelling of S. Dublin spread on ca9le movement networks 199
!200
0!4'*39%4'-3!4H43#$'-E1#!^𝑆!_5!-)+#3'-*H4!^𝐼!_!%)/!*7#&#/!^𝑅!_!3*($%&'(#)'%1-4%'-*)!(*/#11-):!201
'#39)-hH#!`%4!H4#/!'*!4-(H1%'#!'9#!4$&#%/!*+!SZ!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)4!*)!(*)'91.!'-(#43%1#!)#'`*&D4!*7#&!202
'`*! Lb.#%&! $#&-*/4! ^-Z#Z5! /H&-):! '9#! &#:-*)%1-4%'-*)! ^B@SPB@Tb@PSPB@A_! %)/! %+'#&! '9#! &#:-*)%1-4%'-*)!203
^B@SPB@?b@PSPBPB__Z!c9#!4$&#%/!*+!S.!"HE1-)!`%4!4-(H1%'#/!E%4#/!*)!*E4#&7#/!(*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'-#4!%)/!204
%!&%):#!*+!9.$*'9#'-3%11.!4#'!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D!%3'-7-'-#4!^w_!E#'`##)!3%a1#!+%&(4!'*!-)7#4'-:%'#!'9#!205
-($%3'!*+!$*'#)'-%1! 39%):#4!-)! '9#!/#:&##!*+! (*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'-#4!*)! '9#!4$&#%/! *+! S.!"HE1-)! %'!'9#!206
(*)'91.!1#7#1Z!c9#!4%(#!%$$&*%39!+*&!(*/#1-):!-)3&#%4#/!%)/!/#3&#%4#/!)#'`*&D!%3'-7-'-#4!*+!w %'!'9#!207
(*)'91.!1#7#1!`%4!%$$1-#/5!%4!/#43&-E#/!E.!f#E1!#'!%1Z!^PB@k_Z!N)!E&-#+5!'9#!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D!%3'-7-'.!208
w5!`9#&#!w 1-#4!E#'`##)!B!x!w!x!@5!-4!/#o)#/!%4!'9#!(#%)!#/:#!+&#hH#)3.!*+!%!)#'`*&D!^-Z#Z5!9*`!*+'#)!%!209
3#&'%-)!#/:#!E#'`##)!%!)*/#!$%-&!`%4!%3'-7#!/-7-/#/!E.!'9#!1#):'9!*+!'9#!Lb.#%&!$#&-*/_Z!2HE4#hH#)'1.5!210
+*&!#%39!w!^-Z#Z5!%3&*44!/#:&##4!*+!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'_5!*H'E&#%D!$&*E%E-1-'.!`%4!3%13H1%'#/!E%4#/!*)!'9#!211
$&*$*&'-*)!*+!'9#!4-(H1%'-*)!&H)4!^)v@5BBB_!'9%'!H1'#/!-)!%)!S.!"HE1-)!4$&#%/!E#.*)/!'9#!4'%&'-):!212
)*/#Z!c9#!%'-7#!*H'E&#%D!4-]#!`%4!3%13H1%'#/!%4!'9#!$&*$*&'-*)!*+!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!%'-7#!'*!'9#!'*'%1!213
)H(E#&!*+!$*'#)'-%11.!-)+#3'%E1#!)*/#4!-)!'9#!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D5!%)/!*H'E&#%D!/H&%'-*)!`%4!4-($1.!214
'9#!)H(E#&!*+!(*)'94!'9#!*H'E&#%D!$#&4-4'#/Z!C*11*`-):!%)!%)-(%1!(*7#(#)'5!'9#!#-7-):!)*/#!`-11!215
E#!E#3*(#!-)+#3'#/!%33*&/-):!'*!'9#!$&*E%E-1-'.!+H)3'-*)!pe = P(X > 0) ~ B(w, p) = 1-(1-p)w5!`9#&#!B(w, p)!216
-4!%!E-)*(-%1!+H)3'-*)! /#$#)/-):! *)! '9#!'&%)4(-44-*)!$&*E%E-1-'.!p!v! yBZPT5! BZTB5!BZATz! %)/! '9#!#/:#!217
`#-:9'!w!^-Z#Z5!'9#!)H(E#&!*+!3%a1#!(*7#/e!f#E1!#'!%1Z5!PB@k_Z!218
!X#3%H4#!-)'#&7#)'-*)4!%:%-)4'!S.!"HE1-)!`#&#!3%&&-#/!*H'!%'!'9#!+%&(45!+%&(4!`#&#!'&#%'#/!%4!219
#$-/#(-*1*:-3%1! H)-'4! -)! '9#! 4$&#%/! (*/#15! E#-):! %44-:)#/! '*! #$-/#(-*1*:-3%1! 4'%'#4! ^-Z#Z5!220
3*($%&'(#)'4_!𝑆!5!𝐼!!%)/!𝑅!Z!c9#!4-(H1%'-*)! (*/#1! -)3*&$*&%'#/!+%&(4! '9%'! `#&#! $%&'!*+! '9#! 1%&:#4'!221
4'&*):1.!3*))#3'#/!3*($*)#)'!+&*(!'9#!)#'`*&D!%)%1.4-4Z!N)-'-%11.5!%11!)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!-)!'9#!/%'%4#'!222
`#&#!%44-:)#/!'*!𝑆!!%)/5!%'!'9#!&%)/*(1.!39*4#)!'-(#5!*)#!&%)/*(1.!4#1#3'#/!-)/#F!+%&(!`%4!4#'!'*!𝐼!5!223
4H39!'9%'!%11!4'%&'-):! '-(#4! %)/!+%&(4!9%/!'9#! 4%(#! 4#1#3'-*)!$&*E%E-1-'.!^f#E1! #'! %1Z5!PB@k_Z!𝑆!!+%&(4!224
3*H1/!*)1.!E#3*(#!-)+#3'#/!-+!3%a1#!`#&#!(*7#/!+&*(!𝐼!$'*$𝑆!$/H&-):!'9#!'-(#!`9#&#$𝐼!!`%4!-)+#3'-*H4!^%!225
3*)4'%)'! -)+#3'-*H4! $#&-*/! *+! L! `##D4! `%4! %44H(#/_Z! CH&'9#&5! `#! -)'&*/H3#/! '%&:#'! %)/! &%)/*(1.!226
-($1#(#)'#/!-)'#&7#)'-*)!(#%4H!E.!&#(*7-):!)*/#4!+&*(!'9#!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D4!'*!%)%1.4#!227
'9#!%44*3-%'#/!-($%3'!*)!'9#!4$&#%/!*+!S.!"HE1-)Z!c%&:#'!&#(*7%1!*+!)*/#4!`%4!$#&+*&(#/!E%4#/!*)!'9#!228
9-:9#4'!E#'`##))#44!*+!'9#!+%&(4!^E#'`##))#44!{!@BB5BBB_Z!N)!$&%3'-3#5!'9#!&#(*7%1!*+!+%&(4!3*H1/!E#!229
3*)4-/#&#/!%4!-4*1%'-*)5!3H11-):5!7%33-)%'-*)!%)/S*&!-)3&#%4#/!E-*4#3H&-'.!(#%4H!^j)-o3!#'!%1Z5!PBPB_Z!230
!231
Software and packages 232
233
011! %)%1.4#4! %)/! 7-4H%1-4%'-*)4!`#&#! -($1#(#)'#/! H4-):! '9#! r! 4'%'-4'-3%1! 3*($H'-):!234
#)7-&*)(#)'! ^r! 7#&4-*)! \ZLZ@_! E.! %$$1.-):! '9#! +*11*`-):! r! $%3D%:#4W! -:&%$9@ZTZBZ@5! 3*($-1#&! \Z\ZB5!235
2)*`+%11!@Z?\bkZ@5!&:#F+!BZ@kZP5!'-/.&!@ZLZB5!/$1.&!@Z@ZP5!R&*$8N45!%)/!$1*'&-FZ!236
!237
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
7
RESULTS 238
Movements, infections and production categories of Danish ca9le farms 239
!240
c9#!3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! /%'%4#'!3*)4-4'4! *+! P?5@AB! )*/#4! ^$&#(-4#4_5! `-'9! M5@?\5T\B! -)/-7-/H%1!241
3%a1#!%)/!L@5\k\5?Lk!*&/4!*+!(*7#(#)'4!^1-)D4_5!%(*):!%!'*'%1!*+!LB5\LM!3%a1#!+%&(4!#F-4'-):!E#'`##)!242
B@SPB@B!'*!@PSPBPB5!`-'9!AZ\i!^)vP5PkM_!*+!+%&(4!*&/-):!)*!E#'`##)b+%&(!(*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'-#4Z!l)1.!243
@Z?i!*+!'9#!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!%'-*)49-$4!E#'`##)!3%a1#!+%&(4!$#&4-4'#/!'9&*H:9*H'!'9#!4'H/.!$#&-*/!244
^&#+#&&#/!'*! %4! -)b1*.%1'._5!%)/! '9#! '*$! PBi! ^)vT5TP@_! *+! '9#! +%&(4! %33*H)'#/! +*&!MLZPi! *+! %11! 3%a1#!245
(*7#(#)'4!-)!"#)(%&DZ!c9#!$&*E%E-1-'.!*+!#):%:-):!-)!%!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!#7#)'!`%4!/#$#)/#)'!*)!'9#!246
$&*/H3'-*)! '.$#!*+! %!+%&(Z! O*4'!3%a1#! (*7#(#)'45! %(*):!D)*`)! $&*/H3'-*)! 3%'#:*&-#45! *33H&&#/!247
E#'`##)!/%-&.! %)/! 9#-+#&!&%-4-):!+%3-1-'-#4!^PPZ?i_!%)/!E#'`##)!/%-&.!+%&(4!^@kZ?i_!*7#&!'9#!@@b.#%&!248
$#&-*/Z!l)!%7#&%:#5!'9#&#!`%4!1-a1#!/-d#&#)3#!%3&*44!$&*/H3'-*)!'.$#4!-)!'#&(4!*+!/-4'%)3#!'&%7#11#/!E.!249
3%a1#!E#'`##)!+%&(45! `-'9! (#/-%)! 7%1H#4!*+!@kZM!D(!^(#%)!L?Z?!D(!`-'9!%!&%):#!Bb\T@ZB!D(_Z!Q%39!250
.#%&5! *)! %7#&%:#5! -)/-7-/H%1! %)-(%14! `#&#! (*7#/! PZ?! '-(#4! `-'9-)! "#)(%&D5! `-'9! (*7#/! %)-(%14!251
&#(%-)-):! %'! %! +%&(! +*&! %)! %7#&%:#! PTL! /%.4! E#+*&#! (*7-):!%:%-)Z! c`*! "%)-49! &#:-*)45! 2*H'9#&)!252
"#)(%&D!%)/!8#)'&%1!IH'1%)/5!%33*H)'#/!+*&!A?i!*+!%11!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!3*))#3'-*)4!-)!"#)(%&DZ!C*&!253
(*&#!'9%)!9%1+!*+!'9#!(*7#(#)'4!^TkZAi!*)!%7#&%:#_5!'9#!*&-:-)!%)/!/#4'-)%'-*)!`#&#!1*3%'#/!`-'9-)!254
'9#!4%(#!&#:-*)!^C-:H&#!2L_Z!c9#!(%$4!*+!%11!#F-4'-):!3%a1#!+%&(4!-)!"#)(%&D!%)/!'9#!+%&(4!'9%'!(*7#/!255
3%a1#!%&#!49*`)!-)!C-:H&#!2\Z 256
C-:H&#!@%!49*`4!9*`!(%).!(*)'94!+%&(4!4'%.#/!-)!*)#!*+!'9#!+*H&!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!^-Z#Z5!257
)#:%'-7#5!$*4-'-7#5!H)D)*`)!%)/!1-D#1.!)#:%'-7#_!%)/!9*`!(%).!+%&(4!`#&#!-)!#%39!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!258
/H&-):!'9#!4'H/.!$#&-*/Z!N'!49*H1/!E#!)*'#/!'9%'!%!+%&(!3*H1/!39%):#!E*'9!-'4!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!%)/!259
$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&.! 4#7#&%1!'-(#4! *7#&! '9#!4'H/.! $#&-*/Z! N)! '*'%15! ??Z?i!*+!%11! +%&(4! D#$'! '9#! 4%(#!260
-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!+*&!'9#!`9*1#!$#&-*/!^PB@BbPBPB_5!?Z?i!9%/!'`*!/-d#&#)'! -)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#45!%)/!261
*)1.!PZLi!%)/!BZB@i!*+!+%&(4!9%/!'9&##!%)/!+*H&!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#45!$#3'-7#1.Z!N)!'*'%15!TMZAi!*+!262
+%&(4!/-/!)*'!39%):#!'9#-&!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&.5!`9-1#!PLZTi5!@@Zki5!%)/!\ZBi!*+!+%&(4!9%/!'`*5!'9&##5!263
%)/!+*H&! /-d#&#)'! $&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4! *7#&! '9#!4'H/.! $#&-*/5!$#3'-7#1.Z!C-:H&#! @E!49*`4! 9*`!264
(%).!(*)'94!+%&(4!4'%.#/!-)!*)#!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!%)/!9*`!(%).!+%&(4!`#&#!-)!#%39!$&*/H3'-*)!265
3%'#:*&.!/H&-):!'9#!4'H/.!$#&-*/Z!O*4'!3%a1#!+%&(4!`#&#!31%44-o#/!%4!m*'9#&!4(%11!9#&/4!x!@B!%)-(%14n!266
^\AZ\i_!%)/!mE##+!4(%11n!^@kZAi_5!%)/!(*4'!*+!'9#!'#4'b$*4-'-7#!+%&(4!`#&#!m/%-&.n!+%&(4!^\?ZBi_!^C-:H&#!267
@3_Z!c9#!S.!"HE1-)!$%1#)3#!*+!/%-&.!+%&(4!*7#&!'9#!$#&-*/!4'&%'-o#/!E.!&#:-*)4!-4!49*`)!-)!C-:H&#!2TZ!!268
!269
Network analysis 270
!271
c9#!)#'`*&D! $&*$#&'-#4! *+!'9#! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D4! `#&#!-)7#4'-:%'#/! %'! '9#!(*)'91.!272
1#7#15!4#$%&%'#1.!+*&!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'#/!^-Z#Z5!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!$*4-'-7#!%)/!H)D)*`)_!%)/!)*)b-)+#3'#/!273
^-Z#Z5!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!)#:%'-7#!%)/!1-D#1.!)#:%'-7#_!3%a1#!+%&(4!-)!"#)(%&D!^C-:H&#!Pe!c%E1#!2L_5!%)/!274
+*&!E*'9!-)+#3'#/!%)/!)*)b-)+#3'#/!3%a1#!+%&(4!^C-:H&#!2ke!c%E1#!2L_Z!c9#!$&*$*&'-*)!*+!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!275
#):%:#/!-)!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!`%4!%'-7#1.!4(%115!`-'9!%)!%7#&%:#!*+!P@T!^(-)vk@!%)/!(%FvL??_!*+!S.!276
"HE1-)! -)+#3'#/! +%&(4! $%&'-3-$%'-):! -)! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! )#'`*&D4! ^C-:H&#! P_Z! c9#! )#'`*&D! %)%1.4-4!277
-)/-3%'#/!4-(-1%&!'&#)/4!-)!%11!$%&%(#'#&4!+*&!E*'9!)*)b-)+#3'#/!%)/!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4Z!G*`#7#&5!-)!'9#!278
.#%&!PBPB5!9-:91.!9#'#&*:#)#*H4!$%a#&)4!`#&#!+*H)/!%3&*44!-)+#3'#/!%)/!)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!-)!'#&(4!279
*+!'9#!(*/H1%&-'.5!/#:&##45!E#'`##))#445!/#)4-'.!%)/!31*4#)#44!^C-:H&#!Pe!c%E1#!2L_Z!c9#!/#)4-'.!%)/!280
31H4'#&-):!3*#s3-#)'4!`#&#!%$$&*F-(%'#1.!LM!'-(#4!%)/!P!'-(#4!9-:9#&!+*&!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!3*($%&#/!'*!281
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
8
)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(45!$#3'-7#1.Z!N)!*'9#&!`*&/45!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!9%/!%!9-:9#&!1#7#1!*+!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!282
%3'-7-'-#45!%)/!'9#.!(*7#/!3%a1#!(*&#!`-'9-)!'9#-&!*`)!31H4'#&4!'9%)!`-'9!'9#!'!*+!'9#!)#'`*&D!*7#&!283
'9#! 4'H/.! $#&-*/Z! U*)#'9#1#445! '9#! )#'`*&D! %)%1.4-4! -)/-3%'#/! '9%'! 3*)'&*1! (#%4H! &#:%&/-):!284
(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)5!4H39!%4!E#'`##)!&#:-*)!(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)4!^-Z#Z5!$&*9-E-'-):!'&%)4$*&'%'-*)!*+!285
%)-(%14!+&*(! IH'1%)/5! &#+#&&#/! '*! %4! &#:-*)%1-4%'-*)e!C-:H&#! P_!/H&-):! '9#! $#&-*/! PB@LbPB@A! 9%/! )*!286
(%&D#/!-($%3'!*)!'9#!%)%1.4#/!)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!+*&!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4Z!01'9*H:9!'9#!-)b!%)/!287
*H'b/#:&##4!^4##!c%E1#!P_!`#&#!4-(-1%&!E#'`##)!E*'9!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#45!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!`#&#!1#44!$&*)#!288
'*!E&-/:-):! /-d#&#)'! 31H4'#&4!*+! '9#! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! )#'`*&DZ! c9-4! -4! 49*`)! E.!'9#!1*`#&! (#/-%)!289
E#'`##))#44!7%1H#4!*+!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!^(-)v! AZAe!(%Fv!@BBZ@_!3*($%&#/!'*! )*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!^(-)v!290
P@M@ZBe!(%Fv!P?ALZB_!^c%E1#!2L_Z!G*`#7#&5!%'!'9#!)*/#!1#7#15!'9#!E#'`##))#44!`%4!9-:91.!4D#`#/!`-'9!291
%)!%7#&%:#!*+!@AZ\i!*+!'9#!+%&(4!49*`-):!E#'`##))#44!43*!{!@B5BBB5!&#|#3'-):!%!:&#%'#&!3%$%3-'.!*+!292
'9#4#!+%&(4!'*!%3'!%4!%!E&-/:#!%)/!4$&#%/!S.!"HE1-)!'*!*'9#&!)#'`*&D!31H4'#&4!`9#&#!'9#!$%'9*:#)!(-:9'!293
)*'!.#'!3-&3H1%'#!^-+!'9#.!`*H1/!E#3*(#!-)+#3'#/!%)/!)*'!'#4'b$*4-'-7#!+*&!%!$#&-*/_Z!294
c9#!.#%&1.!%7#&%:#!49*&'#4'!$%'9!1#):'94!+*&!-)+#3'#/! +%&(4! &%):#/!+&*(!PZL!'*!LZM5!(#%)-):!295
'9%'!%!$%-&!*+!-)+#3'#/!3%a1#!+%&(4!`%4! 4#$%&%'#/!E.!%$$&*F-(%'#1.!P! '*! \!(*7#(#)'4!#7#&.!.#%&!*)!296
%7#&%:#5!`9-1#!+*&!)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(45!'9#!%7#&%:#!.#%&1.!49*&'#4'!$%'9!1#):'94!`#&#!H$!'*!'9&##!'-(#4!297
9-:9#&Z!c9#!(*)'91.!%7#&%:#!)#'`*&D!/-%(#'#&4!^-Z#Z5!'9#!1*):#4'!%7#&%:#!49*&'#4'!$%'9!1#):'94_!`#&#!T!298
%)/!@B!+*&!'9#!3*)4-/#&#/!)#'`*&D4!*+!-)+#3'#/!%)/!)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(45!$#3'-7#1.Z!C*&!#%39!.#%&5!'9#!299
$&*$*&'-*)!*+!)*/#4!-)!'9#!4'&*):!%)/!`#%D!3*($*)#)'4!`%4!hH-'#!4-(-1%&!+*&!E*'9!-)+#3'#/!%)/!)*)b300
-)+#3'#/!)#'`*&D4!^c%E1#!2L_Z!c9#!)#'`*&D!'*$*1*:.!-)/-3%'#/!%!43%1#!+&##!*7#&%11!)#'`*&D5!%4!4H::#4'#/!301
E.! '9#! 9-:9! $b7%1H#! *+! '9#! j*1(*:*&*7b2(-&)*7! ^j2_!'#4'!^c&%'%1*4! #'! %1Z5! PBPB_Z! c9H45! '9#! )H11!302
9.$*'9#4-4! '9%'! '9#! )#'`*&D! *E4#&7#/! %! $*`#&! 1%`! 3*H1/! E#! 3*)o&(#/!^C-:H&#! 2A_Z! c9-4! `%4!%14*!303
4H$$*&'#/! E.! '9#! (*)'91.! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! )#'`*&D! $&*$#&'-#45! `-'9!(#%)! 7%1H#4! :#)#&%11.! E#-):!304
:&#%'#&!'9%)!'9#!(#/-%)!7%1H#4Z!305
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
9
Association of S. Dublin infections with ca9le movements and local transmissions 306
307
c9#!(H1'-$1#!1*:-4'-3!&#:,-*)!(*/#14!$&#/-3'#/!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)4!-)!'9#!o&4'5!4#3*)/5!'9-&/5!308
+*H&'95!o+'9!%)/! 4-F'9!3*)4#3H'-7#!(*)'94!7-%! 3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4! *&!1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)4Z!c9#! 9-:9#4'!309
$&#/-3'#/!*//4!&%'-*!^lr_!+*&!)#`!S.!"HE1-)!9#&/!-)+#3'-*)4!`%4!3%13H1%'#/!'9&*H:9!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!310
`-'9-)!'9#!o&4'!(*)'95!`9-1#!'9#!lr4!+*&!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)4!/H#!'*!1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)4!`#&#!%'-7#1.!311
3*)4'%)'!*7#&!'9#!$&#/-3'-*)!(*)'94Z!c9#!$&*E%E-1-'.!'*!E#3*(#!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'#/!7-%!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!312
/#3&#%4#/!-+!'9#!$&#/-3'-*)!'-(#!`-)/*`!`%4!#F'#)/#/!^C-:H&#!Le!c%E1#!2\b2A_Z!313
c9#!*E4#&7#/! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! %3'-7-'.! `%4!wvBZBMP! /H&-):!'9#! &#:-*)%1-4%'-*)! %)/!wvBZBMB!314
%+'#&!'9#!&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)Z!c9#!4-(H1%'-*)!(*/#1!*H'3*(#4!-)/-3%'#/!'9%'!'9#!*H'E&#%D!$&*E%E-1-'.!^-Z#Z5!315
'9#!$&*E%E-1-'.!'9%'!S.!"HE1-)!`-11! 4$&#%/!E#.*)/!'9#!4'%&'-):!)*/#_!`%4!E#'`##)! Ti! %)/! @LiZ!c9#!316
%'-7#!*H'E&#%D!4-]#!^-Z#Z5!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!%4!%!$#&3#)'%:#!*+!$*'#)'-%11.!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4_!`%4!*)!%7#&%:#!317
L% ^n=L? -)+#3'#/! +%&(4! $#&! 4-(H1%'-*)! -'#&%'-*)_5 /#$#)/-):! *)! '9#! '&%)4(-44-*)! $&*E%E-1-'.Z! l)!318
%7#&%:#5!'9#&#!`#&#!T!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!$#&!4-(H1%'-*)!-'#&%'-*)!`-'9!pvBZPTe!`-'9!@?!-+!pvBZTB!%)/!`-'9!?T!319
-+!pvBZAT5!%)/!'9#!%7#&%:#!*H'E&#%D!/H&%'-*)!`%4!TZ@!(*)'94. O%).!|H3'H%'-*)4!-)!'9#!(*/#1!*H'3*(#4!320
^*H'E&#%D! 4-]#! %)/! /H&%'-*)_! `#&#! *E4#&7#/! H)'-1! '9#! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! %3'-7-'.! &#%39#/ w=BZP5!321
4H::#4'-):! '9%'! '9#!4$&#%/! *+! S.!"HE1-)! 7-%! (*7#(#)'4! *+! 3%a1#! `*H1/! &#%39! %! 1-(-'! ^C-:H&#! \_Z! 0!322
(*/#11-):!*H'3*(#!`9#&#!%11!)*/#4!-)!'9#!)#'`*&D!E#3%(#!-)+#3'#/!`%4!)#7#&!+*H)/5!)*'!#7#)!+*&!7#&.!323
9-:9!)#'`*&D!%3'-7-'-#4!^-Z#Z5!w > BZP_!%)/!'&%)4(-44-*)!$&*E%E-1-'-#4Z!0!3*($%&-4*)!*+!E*'9!4-(H1%'-*)!324
$#&-*/4! ^/H&-):! %)/! %+'#&! &#:-*)%1-4%'-*)_! -)/-3%'#/! 41-:9'1.! 9-:9#&! (*/#1! *H'3*(#45! -)! '#&(4! *+!325
*H'E&#%D!4-]#4!%)/!/H&%'-*)45!%+'#&!'9#!&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)!3*($%&#/!'*!$#&-*/!/H&-):!'9#!&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)!326
^C-:H&#!\_Z!X#3%H4#!'9#!*H'E&#%D!4-]#!)#7#&!&#%39#/!'9#!7%1H#!B5!'9#!(*/#1!4H::#4'#/!%)!#)/#(-3!4'%'#!327
*+!S.!"HE1-)!-)!'9#!"%)-49!3%a1#!$*$H1%'-*)Z!c9#!4-(H1%'-*)!(*/#1!49*`#/!'9%'!'%&:#'#/!&#(*7%1!*+!'9#!328
3%a1#! +%&(4! `-'9! '9#! @i! 9-:9#4'! E#'`##))#44!^-Z#Z5! {! @BB5BBB_! +&*(! '9#! (*7#(#)'! )#'`*&D! `*H1/!329
%39-#7#!%)!??ZAi!&#/H3'-*)!-)!'9#!4$&#%/!3*($%&#/!'*!'9#!&#(*7%1!*+!&%)/*(!3%a1#!+%&(4Z!!330
!331
!332
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
10
DISCUSSION 333
!334
2-(-1%&!'&#)/4!-)!'9#!)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!`#&#!*E4#&7#/!+*&!E*'9!SZ!"HE1-)!-)+#3'#/!%)/!)*)b335
-)+#3'#/!3%a1#!+%&(4Z!c9-4!4H::#4'4!'9%'!'9#!-($1#(#)'#/!(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)4!^#Z:Z5!&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)_!336
-)!'9#!"%)-49!3*)'&*1!$&*:&%((#!H)#F$#3'#/1.!9%/!%!H)-+*&(!#d#3'!*)!'&%/-):!$%a#&)4!/H&-):!'9%'!337
$#&-*/5!%4!'9#!31H4'#&-):!3*#s3-#)'!%)/!%7#&%:#!$%'9!1#):'9!/-/!)*'!39%):#!+*&!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!%'-7#!338
'*!'9#!*'9#&!.#%&4Z!c9-4!-4!1-D#1.!E#3%H4#!(#(E#&49-$!'*!%!&#:-*)!-4!%!1%&:#b43%1#!31%44-o3%'-*)!+*&!#%39!339
)*/#185! `-'9! TkZAi! *+! %11! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! 3*))#3'-*)4! *33H&&-):! E#'`##)! (%'39-):! *&-:-)! %)/!340
/#4'-)%'-*)!&#:-*)45!4H::#4'-):!'9%'!3%a1#!+%&(#&4!9%7#!%!$&#+#&#)3#!'*!(*7#!3%a1#!`-'9-)! '9#!4%(#!341
&#:-*)!^C-:H&#!2L_Z!c9#!&%&#!1*):b&%):#!%)-(%1!(*7#(#)'4!-/#)'-o#/!-)!'9#!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D!^*)1.!342
BZMi!*+!'9#! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'!3*))#3'-*)4! 3*7#&#/!%!1*):b/-4'%)3#! }!PBB! D(_!+%7*H&#/!'9#! -1-#)3#!343
%:%-)4'!4$&#%/-):!S.!"HE1-)!'*!*'9#&!&#:-*)45!`9-39!(%.!#F$1%-)!'9#!9-:9!S.!"HE1-)!$%1#)3#!*E4#&7#/!344
`-'9-)!'9#!9-:9#&!$%1#)3#!:#*:&%$9-3%1!%&#%4!*+!U*&'95!~#4'!%)/!2*H'9!IH'1%)/!^C-:H&#!2@_Z!c9H45!345
'9#!)#'`*&D!%)%1.4-4!-)/-3%'#/!'9%'!3*)'&*1!(#%4H!&#:%&/-):!(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)5!4H39!%4!E#'`##)!346
&#:-*)!(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)4!^C-:H&#!P_!/H&-):!'9#!$#&-*/!PB@LbPB@A!9%7#!9%/!)*!(%&D#/!-($%3'!*)!347
'9#!%)%1.4#/!)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!+*&!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4Z!!348
0)!*E4#&7#/!#d#3'!*+!'9#!-($1#(#)'%'-*)!*+!&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)!`%4!%)!-)3&#%4#!-)!'9#!%7#&%:#!$%'9!349
1#):'9!+*&!)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(4! ^C-:H&#! P_Z!f*):#&!$%'94! -)! '9#!(*7#(#)'! )#'`*&D!3*H1/!4$%)! 1%&:#&!350
:#*:&%$9-3!/-4'%)3#4!'9%'!(%.!4$&#%/!-)+#3'-*)4!%3&*44!:#*:&%$9-3%1!E*&/#&4!`-'9!>H4'!+#`!E#'`##)b351
+%&(!#7#)'4!^,%)/#&~%%1!#'!%1Z5!PB@k_Z!c9-4! -4!-($*&'%)'!E#3%H4#!-'! -4!1-D#1.!'9%'! #)/#(-3!*&!)#`! S. 352
"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)4!-)!4*(#!+%&(4!`#&#!H)/#'#3'#/!^,#1-):5!PBB\e!~%&)-3D!#'!%1Z5!PBBk_Z!N'!49*H1/!E#!)*'#/!353
'9%'!'9#&#!%&#!4#7#&%1!3%a1#!+%&(4!`-'9!H)D)*`)!4'%'H4!*7#&!'9#! 4'H/.! $#&-*/!^C-:H&#!@_!/#4$-'#!'9#!354
4#)4-'-7-'.!*+!'9#!2Z!"HE1-)!EH1Db'%)D!(-1D!'#4'-):!4'&%'#:.!H4#/!-)!'9#!$&*:&%((#!E#-):!%$$&*F-(%'#1.!355
MTbMki! ^U-#14#)5! PBBLe! ~%&)-3D!#'! %1Z5! PBBk_Z! 6)D)*`)! 4'%'H4! H4H%11.! *33H&&#/! `9#)! +%&(4! `#&#!356
4'%&'-):!H$!*&!&#b4'%&'#/!4'%'H4!%11*3%'-*)!-)!'9#!4H&7#-11%)3#!$&*:&%((#!/H#!'*!39%):#!*+!*`)#&!*&!/H#!357
'*! 1%3D! *+! 4%($1#4Z! C*&! )*)b/%-&.! 3%a1#! 9#&/45! '9#! 4#)4-'-7-'.! *+! 9#&/! '#4'-):! $&*3#/H! E%4#/! *)!358
(H1'-$1#! E1**/! 4%($1#4! &%):#4! E#'`##)! %$$&*F-(%'#1.! TBbMTi5! /#$#)/-):! *)! '9#! `-'9-)b9#&/!359
$%1#)3#Z!c9#&#+*!&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)!%4!%!3*)'&*1!4'&%'#:.!(%.!)*'!E#!%/#hH%'#!'*!3%$'H&#!%11!%'b&-4D!360
3%a1#! +%&(4Z! c9-4! -4! 4H$$*&'#/! E.! '9#! 4-(H1%'-*)! (*/#15! %4! *)1.! 41-:9'1.! 1*`#&! (*/#1! *H'3*(#4!361
^*H'E&#%D!4-]#4!%)/!/H&%'-*)4_!`#&#!*E4#&7#/!/H&-):!'9#!&#:-*)%1-]%'-*)!3*($%&#/!'*!'9#!$#&-*/!%+'#&!362
-'!`%4!/-43*)'-)H#/Z!363
23%1#b+&##!)#'`*&D4!1-D#!'9#!"%)-49!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D5!`9#&#!%!4(%11!)H(E#&!*+!9-:91.!364
%3'-7#!)*/#4!-4!$*)4-E1#! +*&!%!9-:9!$&*$*&'-*)! *+!3*))#3'-*)45!%&#! 7H1)#&%E1#!'*!/-4&H$'-*)! `9#)!365
'9*4#!9-:9b/#:&##!)*/#4!%&#!&#(*7#/!^X•a)#&!#'!%1Z5! PB@L_Z!N)!3*)'&%4'5!4H39!)#'`*&D4!%&#! %'-7#1.!366
-((H)#! '*! /-4&H$'-*)! -+! )*/#4! %&#! &#(*7#/! &%)/*(1.!^X•a)#&!#'! %1Z5! PB@L_5! %4! '9#! $&*E%E-1-'.! *+!367
39**4-):! `#%D1.! 3*))#3'#/! )*/#4! -4! %'-7#1.! 9-:9!%)/! '9#-&! /#1#'-*)! `*H1/!9%7#! )*)b4-:)-o3%)'!368
-)|H#)3#!*)!'9#!4'%E-1-'.!*+! '9#! )#'`*&D!4'&H3'H&#!^01E#&'5!#'! %1Z5!PBBB_Z! c9#!1%a#&! -4! &#|#3'#/!-)! '9#!369
4-(H1%'-*)!(*/#15!%4!(-'-:%'-*)!(#%4H!^-Z#Z5!&#(*7-):S-4*1%'-):!+%&(4_!'%&:#'-):!'9#!'*$!@i!*+!+%&(45!370
-)!'#&(4!*+!E#'`##))#445!`*H1/!&#/H3#!'9#!4$&#%/!E.!??ZAi!`9#)!3*($%&#/!'*!'9#!&#(*7%1S-4*1%'-*)!371
*+!&%)/*(!+%&(4Z!c9-4! 4H::#4'4!'9%'!(*&#! #d*&'!49*H1/! E#!(%/#!'*!H)/#&4'%)/!`9#&#!'9#4#! 9-:91.!372
3#)'&%1!+%&(4! %&#! 1*3%'#/!%)/! 9*`! E#4'! '*! 3*)'&*1!'9#-&! %)-(%1! (*7#(#)'4!-)! %!'%&:#'#/!(%))#&
373
^c&%'%1*4!#'!%1Z5!PBPB_Z!!374
CH&'9#&!%)%1.4-4!*+!9*`!4H39!+%&(4!*$#&%'#5!-)!'#&(4!*+!E-*4#3H&-'.!4'%)/%&/4!%)/S*&!9*`!1*):!375
'9#!%)-(%14!&#(%-)!*)!'9#4#!+%&(4!^c&%'%1*4!#'!%1Z5!PBPB_5!`*H1/!1-D#1.!-)3&#%4#!'9#!H)/#&4'%)/-):!*+!376
'9#-&!#$-/#(-*1*:-3%1!&*1#!-)!'9#!4$&#%/!S. "HE1-)Z!C*&!#F%($1#5!'9#!'&%)4(-44-*)!$&*E%E-1-'.!(-:9'!E#!377
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
11
1*`#&!+*&!+%&(4!`-'9!9-:9!E-*4#3H&-'.!%)/S*&!+%&(4!'9%'!*)1.!D##$!%)-(%14!+*&!%!49*&'!'-(#!^f#)q!!#'!378
%1Z5!PB@ke!j)-o3!!#'!%1Z5!PBPB_Z!c9#&#+*!-'!-4!*((#)/#/!'9%'!3*)'&*1!4'&%'#:-#4!E%4#/!*)!+%&(!1#7#1!379
39%&%3'#&-4'-345! *&! %! (*&#! :&%)H1%&! :#*:&%$9-3%1! 1#7#1! `-'9-)! 4HEb&#:-*)45! %&#! /#7#1*$#/5! 4-)3#! '9#!380
-)|H#)3#!*+!)*/#4!-4!4HE>#3'!'*!'#($*&%1!7%&-%'-*)4!^2'J&D!!#'!%1Z5!PBBke!O`#H!#'!%1Z5!PB@L_!'9%'!(%.!%d#3'!381
'9#!-($%3'! *+! -)/-7-/H%1! +%&(4! *)! '9#! 4$&#%/! *+! S.!"HE1-)Z!0!o&4'! 4'#$! '*`%&/4! (*&#!#d#3'-7#! %)/!382
#s3-#)'!3*)'&*1!3*H1/!E#!'9#!&%)D-):!*+!)*/#4!*&!1-)D4!H4-):!%$$&*$&-%'#!)#'`*&D!3#)'&%1-'.!(#%4H!383
^#Z:Z5!E#'`##))#44_!E.!7#'#&-)%&.!%H'9*&-'-#4!3*(E-)#/!`-'9!%//-'-*)%1!+%&(!(#'%b/%'%!^#Z:Z5!E-*4#3H&-'.!384
1#7#1_!'*!-)+*&(!'%&:#'#/!4H&7#-11%)3#!%)/!3*)'&*1!(#%4H!^2'J&D!#'!%1Z5!PBBke!U%'%1#!#'!%1Z5!PBBMe!O`#H!!385
#'!%1Z5!PB@Le!f#)q!#'!%1Z5!PB@k_Z!U*)#'9#1#445!'9#!4H33#44!*+!%)!2Z!"HE1-)!4H&7#-11%)3#!$&*:&%((#!3&-'-3%11.!386
/#$#)/4!*)!'9#!%E-1-'.!'*!&%$-/1.!/#'#3'!-)+#3'-*)4!%)/!'9#-&!3*&$*)/-):!$%'9*:#)-3!4*H&3#45!%4!'9-4!387
%11*`4!'9#!-($1#(#)'%'-*)!*+!'%&:#'#/!(-'-:%'-*)!(#%4H!'*!3*)'%-)!'9#!$&*$%:%'-*)!^X%>%&/-!#'!%1Z5!388
PB@P_Z!f*):#&! /#1%.4! E#'`##)! '9#! -)'&*/H3'-*)! *+! %)! -)+#3'-*)! '*! %! +%&(! %)/! -'4! /#'#3'-*)! H1'! -)!389
-)3&#%4#/!/-s3H1'.! -/#)'-+.-):! '9#! 4'%&'-):! $*-)'! *+! '9#! 4$&#%/5! %)/5! '9#&#+*! -)3&#%4#/! /-s3H1'.!390
$#)'-):! +H&'9#&! 4$&#%/Z! G*`#7#&5! `9-1#! '9#! -/#)'-o3%'-*)! *+! 31H4'#&4! 3%)! E#! H4#/! '*! #)9%)3#!391
4H&7#-11%)3#!%)/!49#/!1-:9'!*)!'9#!*&-:-)!*+!)#`!-)+#3'-*)45!'9#!'#($*&%1!7%&-%E-1-'.!%)/!-)b1*.%1'.!*+!392
3%a1#! (*7#(#)'! 3*))#3'-*)! E#'`##)! "%)-49! +%&(#&4! #%1#/! E.! '9-4! %)%1.4-4! (%D#4! -/#)'-+.-):!393
$*44-E1#! 4*H&3#! *+! -)+#3'-*)4! %)/! /#'#3'-):! 4#3*)/%&.! -)+#3'-*)4!$%&'-3H1%&1.! /-s3H1'! +*&! 7#'#&-)%&.!394
%H'9*&-'-#4!^X%>%&/-!#'!%1Z5!PB@P_Z!!395
01'9*H:9!'9#! )#'`*&Du4! $&*$#&'-#4! :#)#&%11.! -)/-3%'#/! %!4-(-1%&!'&#)/! *7#&!'9#! *E4#&7%'-*)!396
$#&-*/5! -)! '9#! .#%&! PBPB5! 9-:91.! 9#'#&*:#)#*H4! )#'`*&D! $&*$#&'-#4! `#&#! *E4#&7#/!E#'`##)! E*'9!397
-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!^-)+#3'#/!%)/!)*)b-)+#3'#/_!-)!'#&(4!*+!(*/H1%&-'.5!/#:&##45!E#'`##))#445!/#)4-'.!398
%)/!31*4#)#44!^C-:H&#!Pe!c%E1#!2L_Z!N)+#3'#/!+%&(4!(*7#/!3%a1#!(*&#!`-'9-)!'9#-&!31H4'#&4!-)!PBPB!'9%)!399
`-'9!'9#!'!*+!'9#!)#'`*&D5!3*($%&#/!'*!*'9#&!.#%&4Z!c%E1#!2@!49*`4 ! '9%' ! '9#! -($1 #(#)'#/!S.!"HE1-)!400
1#:-41%'-*)!-)! "#)(%&D! -)! PBPB! $1%3#/! %11! S.!"HE1-)b'#4'#/! $*4-'-7#! +%&(4!H)/#&! ls3-%1! ,#'#&-)%&.!401
2H$#&7-4-*)! `-'9! &#hH-&#(#)'4! '*! (%D#! %)! %3'-*)! $1%)5! %44-4'#/! E.! '9#! 9#&/! 9#%1'9! 3*)4H1'-):!402
7#'#&-)%&-%)5! `-'9-)! L! `##D4Z! c9-4! 4H$#&7-4*&.! $#&-*/! `*H1/! 9%7#! (#%)'! %! :&#%'#&! $*'#)'-%1! +*&!403
%H'9*&-'-#4!'*!31*4#1.!(*)-'*&! +%&(45! `9-39! (%.! 9%7#!-)3&#%4#/! +%&(#&! %`%&#)#44!*+!'9#!(*7#(#)'!404
'&-3'-*)4!%)/!3*H1/!#F$1%-)!'9#!9-:9#&!31H4'#&-):!*+!(*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'-#4!E#'`##)!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!-)!405
'9-4!.#%&Z!CH&'9#&(*!-'!`%4!'9#!o&4'!8l,N"!.#%&!`-'9!)H(#&*H4!'&-3'-*)4!%-(#/!%'!&#/H3-):!'9#!406
4$&#%/!*+!20r2b8*,bP!`*&1/`-/#!^G%H:!#'!%1Z5!PBPB_5!`9-39!(%.!%14*!9%7#!9%/!%)!-($%3'!*)!+%&(#&!407
E#9%7-*H&5!-)31H/-):!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4Z!"#4$-'#!7%&-%'-*)4!-)!)#'`*&D!39%&%3'#&-4'-34!%3&*44!1#:-41%'-7#!408
#)7-&*)(#)'4!^c%E1#!2@_5!'9-4!4'H/.!4H::#4'4!'9%'!"%)-49!3%a1#!+%&(#&4!`#&#!(*&#!%3'-7#5!%)/!#7%)'!409
)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!`#&#!9-:9#&5!3*($%&#/!'*!*'9#&!QH&*$#%)!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D4!^89&-4'1#.!#'!410
%1Z5!PBBTe!U€&#(%&D!#'!%1Z5!PB@@e!r%H'H&#%H!#'!%1Z5! PB@@e!"Ha%!#'!%1Z5!PB@\e!,-/*)/*!%)/!,*#1D15!PB@?e!!411
j)-o3!#'!%1Z5!PBPB_Z!C*&!-)4'%)3#5!'9#!"%)-49!(*)'91.!3%a1#!)#'`*&D!49*`#/!@M!'-(#4!(*&#!(*7#(#)'45!412
%!@A?!'-(#4!:&#%'#&!31H4'#&!3*#s3-#)'5!@B!'-(#4!:&#%'#&!%7#&%:#!/#:&##!%)/!kkP!'-(#4!:&#%'#&!/#)4-'.!413
3*($%&#/!'*!'9#!21*7#)-%)!3%a1#!)#'`*&D!^j)-o35!#'!%1Z5!PBPB_5!`9-1#!'9#!3%13H1%'#/!)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!414
-)! '9#! $#)'! 4'H/.! 3*)3H&! `-'9! $-*H4! 4'H/.! H1'4! +&*(! "#)(%&D!^X-:&%4bR*H1-)! #'! %1Z5! PBBAe!415
O`#H!#'!%1Z5!PB@L_Z!2-(-1%&1.5!'9#!"%)-49!)#'`*&D4!#F9-E-'#/!(*/#&%'#!43%1#b+&##!'*$*1*:.!^'9#!$*`#&!416
1%`!/-4'&-EH'-*)4!-)!'9#!$#)'#/!4'H/.!&%):#/!E#'`##)!P•L!%)/!`#&#!-)!1-)#!`-'9!E*'9!+*&(#&!4'H/-#4!417
+&*(!"#)(%&D!^X-:&%4bR*H1-)!#'!%1Z5!PBBAe!O`#H!#'!%1Z5!PB@L__5!4H::#4'-):!(*/#&%'#!*H'E&#%D!4-]#4!-)!418
3%4#!*+!-)+#3'-*)4Z!N)!:#)#&%15!4'&*):1.!43%1#b+&##!)#'`*&D!4'&H3'H!%&#!&%!%4!1*:b)*&(%1!/-4'&-EH'-*)4!419
o'!'9#!/%'%!%4!`#11!*&!#7#)!E#a#&!'9%)!$*`#&!1%`!/-4'&-EH'-*)4!^X&*-/*!%)/!81%H4#'5!PB@M_Z!420
0!4#&-#4! *+!4'%'-3! )#'`*&D4!`#&#!H4#/! '*!&#$#)'! %!/.)%(-3!4.4'#(5! `-'9!%11! (*7#(#)'4!`-'9-)! %!421
(*)'91.!$#&-*/!E-))#/5!1#%/-):!'*!'9#!1*44!*+!/%-1.!'#($*&%1!*&/#&!^,%)/#&~%%1!#'!%1Z5!PB@k_Z!G*`#7#&5!422
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
12
4H39!'-(#b%::&#:%'#/!)#'`*&D4!%&#!&#:H1%&1.!H4#/!-)!7#'#&-)%&.!#$-/#(-*1*:.!'*!-)7#4'-:%'#!E#'`##)b423
+%&(!'&%)4(-44-*)4!-)!4-(H1%'-*)!(*/#145!%)/!'9#.!$&*7-/#!%!:**/!(#'&-3!*+!#$-/#(-3!4-]#!^,%)/#&~%%1!424
#'!%1Z5!PB@k_5!'9*H:9!'9#.!(%.!*7#&&#$#)'!'9#!3*))#3'-7-'.!*+!+%&(4!-)!%!)#'`*&D!^,#&)*)!%)/!j##1-):5!425
PBBMe!,%)/#&~%%1!#'!%1Z5!PB@k_Z!N)!'9#!$#)'!4'H/.5!%!(*)'91.!'-(#43%1#!`%4!4#1#3'#/!+*&!'`*!&#%4*)4W!426
i_!'9#&#!-4!%!)##/!'*!4'&-D#!%!E%1%)3#!E#'`##)!9%7-):!4Hs3-#)'!)H(E#&!*+!)*/#4!%)/!#/:#4!-)!%).!:-7#)!427
$#&-*/! %)/! '9#! )H(E#&! *+! )#'`*&D4! '*! E#! %)%1.4#/!^O`#H!#'! %1Z5! PB@L_e! ii_! '9#! (*)'91.! 43%1#! `%4!428
3*)4-/#&#/!%!&#%4*)%E1#!/H&%'-*)5!/H&-):!`9-39!S.!"HE1-)!3*H1/!4$&#%/5!%4!%::&#:%'#/!'-(#!43%1#4!%&#!429
(*&#!-($*&'%)'!+*&!#)/#(-3!/-4#%4#4!1-D#!S.!"HE1-)!3*($%&#/!'*!%3H'#!&%$-/1.!4$&#%/-):!/-4#%4#4!4H39!430
%4! +**'b%)/b(*H'9! /-4#%4#! ^CO"_Z! ~9#)! (*/#1-):! '9#! 1%a#&5! /%-1.! '-(#+&%(#4! (%.! E#! (*&#!431
%$$&*$&-%'#!+*&!3%$'H&-):!'9#! 49*&'b'#&(! 7%&-%'-*)!*+!9-:91.! 3*)'%:-*H4! /-4#%4#4! ^O`#H!#'! %1Z5!PB@Le!432
,%)/# &~%%1!#'!%1Z5!PB@k_Z!8*)4#hH#)'1.5!+*&!4*(#!(*)'91.!'&%/#!$#&-*/45!4'*39%4'-3%11.5!]#&*!-)+#3'-*H4!433
3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!(-:9'!*33H&!^O`#H!#'!%1Z5!PB@L_5!-)/-3%'#/!-)!'9#!4-(H1%'-*)!(*/#1!7-%!%)!*H'E&#%D!434
$&*E%E-1-'.!*+!S.!"HE1-)!E#'`##)!Ti!%)/!@LiZ!04!(*/#11#/5!'9#!$*'#)'-%1!'*!4$&#%/!S.!"HE1-)!7-%!3%a1#!435
(*7#(#)'!`%4!1-(-'#/!3*($%&#/!'*!(*&#!-)+#3'-*H4!/-4#%4#45!4H39!%4!CO"!^8*)&%/.!#'!%1Z5!PBPL_Z!c9-4!436
-4!4H$$*&'#/!E.!'9#!#$-/#(-*1*:-3%1!4-(H1%'-*)!(*/#15!`9-39!4H::#4'#/!'9%'!%!9.$*'9#'-3%1!-)3&#%4#!*+!437
3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!3*))#3'-*)4!*7#&!w=BZP!`*H1/!-)3&#%4#!)#-'9#&!*H'E&#%D!$&*E%E-1-'.!)*&!*H'E&#%D!4-]#Z!438
c9#&#+*!-'!3%)!E#!3*)31H/#/!'9%'!'9#!4$&#%/!*+!S.!"HE1-)!7-%!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!-4!%4.($'*'-3!^-Z#Z5!-'!439
`*H1/!%$$&*%39!4*(#!1-(-'!#7#)!-+!9-:9!'&%)4(-44-*)!$&*E%E-1-'-#4!%&#!3*)4-/#&#/_Z!G*`#7#&5!E#3%H4#!440
'9#!/%'%!&#|#3'4!4*(#!(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)45!-'!-4!$1%H4-E1#!'9%'!'9#!(*/#1u4!*H'3*(#4!^*H'E&#%D!4-]#!441
%)/! /H&%'-*)_! 3*H1/! E#! :&#%'#&! -+! '9#! $&*$*&'-*)! *+! )#'`*&D4! `-'9*H'! (*7#(#)'! '&-3'-*)! -)! '9#!442
/%'%4#'! `#&#! 9-:9#&Z! c9#! *7#&&#$#)'%'-*)!*+! 3*))#3'-7-'.! /H#! '*! '9#! (*)'91.! %::&#:%'-*)! *+!443
(*7#(#)'4!(-:9'!3%H4#!%)!*7#'-(%'-*)!*+!)*'!*)1.!)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#45!EH'!%14*!'&%)4(-44-*)!#d#3'4!444
^1*3%1!%)/!(*7#(#)'bE%4#/_!%)/!'9#!4-]#5!$&*E%E-1-'.5!%)/!/H&%'-*)!*+!*H'E&#%D4!E%4#/!*)!*E4#&7#/!445
(*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'-#4!%)/!9.$*'9#'-3%1!(*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'-#4Z!N)!%//-'-*)5!'9#!%44-:)(#)'!*+!'9#!*s3-%1!446
/-%:)*4'-3!'#4'! H1'4!'*! )#`1.!3&#%'#/!-)+#3'-*)! 3%'#:*&-#4! ^4##!O%'#&-%1! %)/!O#'9*/4! 39%$'#&! %)/!447
c%E1 # !2P_!(%.!9%7#!E-%4#/!'9#!)#'`*&D!%)%1.4-4!%)/!4-(H1%'-*)!(*/#1!*H'3*(#4Z!N'!49*H1/!%14*!E#!)*'#/!448
'9%'!'9#!4H&7#-11%)3#!$&*:&%((#!*+!'9#!"%)-49!3%a1#!+%&(4!/*#4!)*'!%11*3%'#!2Z!"HE1-)!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!449
'*!'9#!t1-D#1.!-)+#3'#/u!4'%'H4!%)/!2Z!"HE1-)!)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!'*!'9#!t1-D#1.!)*'b-)+#3'#/u!4'%'H4!`-'9!450
$#&+#3'!4#)4-'-7-'.!%)/!4$#3-o3-'.Z!c9-4!-4!E*'9!/H#!'*!)*)b$#&+#3'!/-%:)*4'-3!'#4'!$&*3#/H!%)/!/H#!'*!451
'9#!+%3'!'9%'!+%&(4!%33*&/-):!'*!'9#!3H&&#)'!1#:-41%'-*)!%&#!%11*3%'#/!'*!'9#!t1-D#1.!-)+#3'#/u!4H&7#-11%)3#!452
4'%'H45!-+! '9#.! #-7#!%)-(%14! +&*(! %!+%&(! -)!'9#! t1-D#1.!-)+#3'#/u! 4'%'H45!#7#)!-+! )*! '&%)4(-44-*)!*+!453
E%3'#&-%!%3'H%11.!*33H&&#/!'9&*H:9!'9#!%)-(%1!3*)'%3'Z!N)!'9#!H4#/!/%'%5!'9-4!-4!(%-)1.!#7%)'!+*&!+%&(4!454
-)!(H1'-b4-'#!EH4-)#44!4'&H3'H!%11*`-):! +*&! (*7#(#)'!E#'`##)!+%&(4!*`)#/!E.!'9#!4%(#! +%&(#&5!455
/#4$-'#!*)#!*&!(*&#!+%&(4!`-'9-)!'9#!EH4-)#44!4'&H3'H&#!E#-):!'#4'b$*4-'-7#Z!c9-4!(%.!%14*!1#%/!'*!%!&-4D!456
*+!*7#'-(%'-*)!*+!'9#!#d#3'!*+!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!-)!'9#!$-*H4!(*)'9!*)!4$&#%/!*+!-)+#3'-*)5!%4!4*(#!457
*+! '9#! 4'%'H4b39%):#4! (%.! 9%7#! E##)! $H.! %/(-)-4'&%'-7#Z! N'! -4! %14*! $*44-E1#! '9%'! '9#! 1%3D! *+!458
3*)4-/#&%'-*)!*+!(H1'-b+%&(!3**$#&%'-*)!(-:9'!3%H4#!%)!H)/#'-(%'-*)!*+!'9#4#!4%(#!%4$#3'4Z!l)#!459
-($*&'%)'! +#%'H&#! *+! '9#! "%)-49! 3%a1#! $*$H1%'-*)! 4'&H3'H&#! -4! '9#! 3*)3#$'! *+! tEH4-)#44u! 7#&4H4!460
t$&*$#&'.uZ!0!3%a1#!EH4-)#44!3*H1/!3*)4-4'!*+!*)#!*&!(*&#!+%&(!$&*$#&'-#4!`-'9!3%a1#Z!C*&!#F%($1#5!%!461
EH4-)#44!3*H1/!3*)4-4'!*+!'9&##!$&*$#&'-#4W!%!/%-&.!+%&(!`9#&#!'9#!/%-&.!3*`4!%&#!(-1D#/5!%!9#-+#&b&%-4-):!462
+%3-1-'.5!%)/!%!/&.b3*`!+%&(5!%)/!EH4-)#44#4!3*H1/!9%7#!/-d#&#)'!'.$#4!*+!9#&/4!*)!'9#-&!$&*$#&'-#4Z!N+!463
*)#!*+!'9#4#!+%&(!$&*$#&'-#4!`-'9-)!%!EH4-)#44!E#3*(#4!'#4'b$*4-'-7#5!'9#!'!*+!'9#!$&*$#&'-#4!`-11!%14*!464
E#3*(#! '#4'b$*4-'-7#! /H#! '*! '9#! /#$#)/#)3#! *)! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'4! E#'`##)!$&*$#&'-#4! `-'9-)! '9#!465
EH4-)#44!%4! $%&'! *+! '9#! $&*/H3'-*)! 3.31#4Z! c9#! (*7#(#)'! '&-3'-*)4! +*&! '#4'b$*4-'-7#! EH4-)#44#4!466
'.$-3%11.!(#%)!'9%'!3%a1#!3%))*'!E#!(*7#/!*H'!*+!'9#!EH4-)#445!EH'!'9#.!3%)!4'-11!E#!(*7#/!E#'`##)!467
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
13
$&*$#&'-#4! `-'9-)!'9#! 4%(#! EH4-)#44Z! CH&'9#&(*!4*(#! EH4-)#44#4!*&/! %11! (*7#(#)'4!*+! 3%a1#!468
`-'9-)!'9#!EH4-)#445!%)/!4*(#!*&/!+#`!*&!)*)#!*+!'9#-&!(*7#(#)'4!^*)1.!%11*`#/!+*&!+%&(4!1*3%'#/!469
1#44!'9%)!\!D(!%$%&'_Z!N)!'9-4!4'H/.5!$&*$#&'-#4!`-'9!3%a1#!`#&#!/#o)#/!%4!3%a1#!+%&(4!%)/!'9#!%)%1.4#4!470
`#&#! $#&+*&(#/! %'! '9-4! 1#7#1! E#3%H4#! /#'%-1#/! -)+*&(%'-*)! %E*H'! #4'%E1-49#/! EH4-)#44#4! %)/!471
3**$#&%'-*)4!*7#&!'-(#!`#&#!H)%7%-1%E1#Z!!472
CH&'9#&5!'9#!)#'`*&D!%)%1.4-4!/-/!)*'!3*)4-/#&!'&H3D!(*7#(#)'45!E#3%H4#!'9#4#!/%'%!`#&#!)*'!473
%7%-1%E1#!-)!'9#!"%)-49!1-7#4'*3D!(*7#(#)'!/%'%E%4#Z! N)3*&$*&%'-*)! *+!4H39!/%'%!`*H1/! 1-D#1.!9%7#!474
-)3&#%4#/!+%&(!3*))#3'-7-'.!%)/!(-:9'!9%7#!-)|H#)3#/!'9#!-)'#&$&#'%'-*)!*+!'9#!4$&#%/!*+!S.!"HE1-)!7-%!475
1-7#4'*3D!(*7#(#)'4!%)/! 1*3%1! '&%)4(-44-*)4Z!04! S.!"HE1-)!3%)! 4H&7-7#!*H'4-/#! '9#! 9*4'!+*&! %! 1*):!476
$#&-*/!^U-#14#)!#'!%1Z5!PBP@_!%)/!'&H3Db49%&-):!-4!3*((*)!%(*):!"%)-49!3%a1#!+%&(#&45!-)+*&(%'-*)!477
%E*H'!'&H3D! (*7#(#)'4! `*H1/! -($&*7#! *H&! H)/#&4'%)/-):! *+! '9#! &-4D! *+! S.!"HE1-)‚4! 4$&#%/Z!478
0//-'-*)%11.5!'9#&#!%&#!*'9#&!$%'9`%.4!'9%'!(%.!3&#%'#!*$$*&'H)-'-#4!'*!'&%)4(-'!$%'9*:#)4!E#'`##)b479
+%&(!^l&'-]bR#1%#]!#'!%1Z5!PBBke!;&##)!#'! %1Z5!PBB?e!,%)/#&~%%1!#'! %1Z5!PB@ke!8*)&%/.! #'! %1Z5!PBPL_Z!C*&!480
#F%($1#5! '9#! $#)3#! *+! *'9#&! 1-7#4'*3D5! $#&4*))#1! *&! 7-4-'*&! (*7#(#)'4! %)/! E#9%7-*H&5! %)/! '9#!481
+&#hH#)3.!%)/! 1*3%'-*)!*+! #hH-$(#)'! 31#%)-):! %)/! 49%&-):!E#'`##)! +%&(4! 3%)! %11! $1%.! &*1#4!-)! '9#!482
'&%)4(-44-*)!*+!S.!"HE1-)5!%)/!9-:9#&!'#($#&%'H!3%)!-)3&#%4#!'9#!$%'9*:#)u4!%E-1-'.!'*!4H&7-7#!-)!'9#!483
#)7-&*)(#)'%1!^"-#q!#'!%1Z5!PBBke!;1%`-439)-:!#'!%1Z5!PB@A_Z!!484
;&%]-):!4.4'#(4!%&#!3*((*)!-)!"#)(%&D!%)/!(-:9'!E#!%)*'9#&!$*'#)'-%1!4*H&3#!*+!S.!"HE1-)!485
-)+#3'-*)!E#3%H4#!%)-(%14!4'%.!%'!'9#!/#4-:)%'#/!:&%]-):!1*3%'-*)!+*&!%!$#&-*/!%)/!3%)!(-F!`-'9!*'9#&!486
%)-(%14!%'!'9%'!1*3%'-*)!^j)-o3!#'!%1Z5!PBPB_Z!G*`#7#&5!'#($*&%&.!(*7#(#)'4!'*!%)/!+&*(!:&%]-):!4-'#4!487
`#&#!)*'!+H11.!%7%-1%E1#!-)!'9#!4'H/.!E#3%H4#!-'!-4!)*'!(%)/%'*&.!'*!*&/4!4H39!(*7#(#)'4Z!c9-4!3*H1/!488
#F$1%-)!`9.!)*!4#%4*)%1!$#%D4!-)!'9#!+&#hH#)3.!*+!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!`#&#!-/#)'-o#/!`9-1#!4#%4*)%1-'.!489
`%4! *E4#&7#/! -)! )#'`*&D! %)%1.4#4! *+! *'9#&! 3*H)'&-#4! `-'9! %EH)/%)'! :&%]-):! ^U%'%1#!#'! %1Z5! PBBMe!490
U€&#(%&D!#'!%1Z5!PB@@e!,-/*)/*!%)/!,*#1D15!PB@?_Z!0$$&*F-(%'#1.!@@i!*+!'9#!"%)-49!+%&(4!9%7#!(*&#!491
'9%)!*)#!1-7#4'*3D! 4$#3-#45! %)/!(*7#(#)'4!E#'`##)!'9#4#! (H1'-4$#3-#4!+%&(4!%&#! &%&#!3*($%&#/!'*!492
*'9#&!3*H)'&-#4!^8*)&%/.!#'! %1Z5! PBPL_Z! c9H45!-'! `%4! %44H(#/!'9%'! '9#! )#'`*&D!'*$*1*:.! `*H1/!)*'!493
39%):#!4-:)-o3%)'1.!E.!-)31H/-):!'9#(!-)!'9#!%)%1.4-4Z!G*`#7#&5!`9-1#!'9#!-)31H4-*)!*+!(H1'-4$#3-#4!494
+%&(4!(%.!9%7#!-($%3'#/!'9#!3%13H1%'#/!#d#3'!*+!1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)45!%4!S.!"HE1-)!9%4!E##)!/#'#3'#/!-)!495
*'9#&!4$#3-#45!4H39!%4!(-)D!^"-#q!#'!%1Z5!PBBke!;1%`-439)-:!#'!%1Z5!PB@A_5!-)+*&(%'-*)!%E*H'!'9#!4$#3-o3!496
39%&%3'#&-4'-34!*+!(H1'-4$#3-#4!+%&(4!-)!"#)(%&D!`%4!)*'!%7%-1%E1#!+*&!'9-4!4'H/.Z!l'9#&!+%3'*&45!4H39!497
%4! +%&(#&! 3*($1-%)3#! `-'9! '9#! 1#:-41%'-*)4! %)/! `-'9-)b9#&/! 4$&#%/! /.)%(-345!-)31H/-):! %44*3-%'#/!498
(*/#1!$%&%(#'#&-4%'-*)5!%:#!31%44#4!*+!%)-(%145!%)/!+%&(!'.$#b4$#3-o3!'&%)4(-44-*)!$%&%(#'#&45!3*H1/!499
%//!-($*&'%)'!-)+*&(%'-*)!&#:%&/-):!'9#!&-4D!*+!S.!"HE1-)!-)'&*/H3'-*)!%)/!4$&#%/!'*!'9#!4-(H1%'-*)!500
(*/#1Z!c9#4#!+%3'*&4!`#&#!)*'!3*)4-/#&#/5!%4!-'!`%4!%44H(#/!'9%'!%11!(*7#/!%)-(%14!`#&#!%44*3-%'#/!501
`-'9!%)!#hH%1!$&*E%E-1-'.!*+!4$&#%/-):!S.!"HE1-)Z!0)%1.4-):!%)/!-)'#:&%'-):!4H39!/%'%!3*H1/!-($&*7#!502
'9#!(*/#1!$&#/-3'-*)45!%-/!-)! '9#! -/#)'-o3%'-*)!*+!9-:9b&-4D!3%a1#! +%&(45! %)/!'9#&#+*!+%3-1-'%'#! '9#!503
/#7#1*$(#)'!*+!'%&:#'#/!4H&7#-11%)3#!%)/!3*)'&*1!4'&%'#:-#4!+*&!S.!"HE1-)!%'!'9#!+%&(!1#7#15!`9-39!%14*!504
&#hH-&#!/%'%!3*11#3'-*)!'9&*H:9!o#1/!%)/!#F$#&-(#)'%1!4'H/-#4Z!505
"#4$-'#!'9#4#! *(-44-*)45!'9-4! 4'H/.u4!o)/-):4!%&#! -($*&'%)'!'*! 49%&#!`-'9! '9#!-)'#&)%'-*)%1!506
43-#)'-o3!%)/!$*1-3.(%D-):!3*((H)-'-#4!'*!%44-4'!-)!'9#!/#4-:)!*+!+H'H&#!S.!"HE1-)!3*)'&*1!$&*:&%((#4Z!507
O*&#*7#&5!'9#! (#'9*/*1*:-3%1!%$$&%*39#4!/#43&-E#/! 9#&#-)!%&#!#7%)'!'*!*'9#&!/-4#%4#4! `-'9!9-:9!508
1#7#14!*+!#)7-&*)(#)'%1!%)/!%)-(%1!(*7#(#)'!4$&#%/!(#39%)-4(4Z c9-4!4'H/.!/#(*)4'&%'#4!9*`!%)!509
-)'#&/-43-$1-)%&.!l)#!G#%1'9!%$$&*%39!E&-/:-):!)%'H&%1!%)/!4*3-%1!43-#)3#4!3%)!E#!H4#/!'*!&#o)#!%)/!510
+*&(H1%'#!$*1-3-#4!%-(#/!%'!&#/H3-):!'9#!4$&#%/!*+!%!/-4#%4#!'9%'!'9&#%'#)4!9H(%)!%)/!%)-(%1!9#%1'9Z 511
c9-4!`*&D!-11H4'&%'#4!9*`!H4#+H1!-)4-:9'!-)'*!'9#!3*)'%3'!$%a#&)4!*+!3%a1#!$*$H1%'-*)4!3%)!E#!*E'%-)#/!512
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
14
E.!3*(E-)-):!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!%)/!$%'9*:#)!4H&7#-11%)3#!/%'%!`9-1#!3*)4-/#&-):!(*7#(#)'bE%4#/!%)/!513
1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)!$%'9`%.4Z!c9#!H1'4!4H::#4'!'9%'5!-)!%//-'-*)!'*!&%)D-):!+%&(4!-)!'#&(4!*+!)#'`*&D!514
3#)'&%1-'.!'*!-)+*&(!'%&:#'#/!4H&7#-11%)3#!%)/!3*)'&*1!(#%4H-!SZ!"HE1-)!3*)'&*1!$&*:&%((#4!49*H1/!515
+*3H4!*)!$&#b%)/!$*4'b(*7#(#)'!(#%4H!`-'9-)!%!@b(*)'9!`-)/*`Z!c9H45!`#!4H::#4'!'9%'!3H&&#)'!516
4H&7#-11%)3#!%)/!3*)'&*1!(#%4H!3*H1/!E#!%/%$'#/!'*!+*3H4!*)!&#/H3-):!'9#!&-4D!*+!(*7-):!-)+#3'#/!517
3%a1#! E#'`##)! +%&(4! E.! -($1#(#)'-):! (*&#! +*3H4#/! `-'9-)b9#&/! 3*)'&*1! (#%4H! '*! &#/H3#! '9#!518
$%1#)3#! *+! -)+#3'#/! +%&(45! %)/! #-'9#&! (*&#! '&-3'-7#! (*7#(#)'! '&-3'-*)4! ^3H&&#)'1.! (%-)1.!519
#7%)'! +*&! (H1'-b4-'#! EH4-)#44! 4'&H3'H! %)/! '9#&#+*&#! /-s3H1'! '*! -($1#(#)'_5! $&#b(*7#(#)'!520
(-'-:%'-*)! (#%4H! 4H39! %4! %)-(%1! *&! %)-(%1! :&*H$! '#4'-):! %)/S*&! hH%&%)'-)#! *+! (*7#/! %)-(%14!521
`-'9-)!%!@b(*)'9!`-)/*`!'*!9#1$! &#/H3#!'9#!(*7#(#)'b%'#/!4$&#%/!*+! 2Z!"HE1-)!E#'`##)!+%&(4Z!522
c9#4#! %/%$'%'-*)4!'*! 3H&&#)'! $&*:&%((#4! `*H1/! 1-D#1.! 9#1$! '*! &#/H3#! '9#! (*7#(#)'b%'#/!523
'&%)4(-44-*)!*+!S.!"HE1-)!E#'`##)!+%&(4Z!524
!525
!526
CONCLUSIONS!527
c9#!4'&*):#4'!$&#/-3'-7#!+%3'*&!+*&!+%&(4!E#3*(-):!-)+#3'#/!`%4!'9#-&!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'-#4!528
-)!'9#!$-*H4!(*)'95!`-'9!'`-3#!'9#!#d#3'!*+!1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)Z!c9#!4-(H1%'-*)!(*/#1!-)/-3%'#/!%)!529
#)/#(-3!SZ!"HE1-)!*33H&&#)3#5!`-'9!$#%D4!-)!*H'E&#%D!$&*E%E-1-'-#4!%)/!4-]#4!%&*H)/!*E4#&7#/!3%a1#!530
(*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'-#4Z! c9#&#+*!`#!4H::#4'!'9%'! 3H&&#)'! 4H&7#-11%)3#!%)/!3*)'&*1!(#%4H!3*H1/!E#!531
%/%$'#/!'*!+*3H4!*)!&#/H3-):!'9#!&-4D!*+!(*7-):!-)+#3'#/!3%a1#!E#'`##)!+%&(4!E.!-($1#(#)'-):!(*&#!532
+*3H4#/! `-'9-)b9#&/! 3*)'&*1! (#%4H! '*! &#/H3#! '9#! $%1#)3#! *+! -)+#3'#/! +%&(45! %)/! #-'9#&! (*&#!533
'&-3'-7#! (*7#(#)'! '&-3'-*)4! ^3H&&#)'1.! (%-)1.! #7%)'! +*&! (H1'-b4-'#! EH4-)#44! 4'&H3'H! %)/!534
'9#&#+*&#!/-s3H1'!'*!-($1#(#)'_5!$&#b(*7#(#)'!(-'-:%'-*)!(#%4H!4H39!%4!%)-(%1!*&!%)-(%1!:&*H$!535
'#4'-):!%)/S*&!hH%&%)'-)#!*+!(*7#/!%)-(%14!`-'9-)!%!@b(*)'9!`-)/*`!'*!9#1$!&#/H3#!'9#!(*7#(#)'b536
%'#/!4$&#%/!*+!2Z!"HE1-)!E#'`##)!+%&(4Z 537
538
539
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
15
REFERENCES 540
541
01E#&'5!rZ5!GZ!I#*):5!%)/!0Zf!X%&%Eƒ4-Z!PBBBZ!Q&&*&!%)/!%a%3D!'*1#&%)3#!*+!3*($1#F!)#'`*&D4!!542
U%'H!\BkZ!543
X%>%&/-5!RZ5!0Z!X%&&%'5!fZ!2%7-)-5!%)/!,Z!8*1-]]%Z!PB@PZ!l$'-(-]-):!4H&7#-11%)3#!+*&!1-7#4'*3D!/-4#%4#!!544
4$&#%/-):!'9&*H:9!%)-(%1!(*7#(#)'4Z!IZ!rZ!2*3Z!N)'#&+%3#Z!M5!P?@\•P?PTZ!545
XQj!)*Z!@APL!PPS@PSPB@BZ!X#D#)/':<#!*(!4%1(*)#11%!9*4!D7„:!(Z(Z!07%-1%E1#!%'W!!546
9a$4WSS```Z:**:1#Z3*(SH&1…4%v-†&3'v>†hv†#4&3v4†4*H&3#v`#E†3/v†7#/vB80N‡`A0I%93547
jQ`>‡ˆ%.jB'j00F600000G‡00000‡0:†H&1v9a$4iL0iPCiPC```Z&#'4-)+*&(%'-*548
)Z/DiPC%$-iPC$/+iPC@LTPM@†$4-:v0l7,%`@4c2-%]Q/@O\7l/(A‰7f-l†H4'v@kM@AATA?B549
\AB?\L†*$-v?MMA?\\M!^%33#44#/!*)W!@B!0H:H4'!PBPL_!550
X-:&%4bR*H1-)5!OZ5!jZ!X%&+*/5!2Z!O*&'#)4#)5!%)/!OZ!;&#-)#&Z!PBBAZ!r#1%'-*)49-$!*+!'&%/#!$%a#&)4!*+!'9#!!551
"%)-49!4`-)#!-)/H4'&.!%)-(%1!(*7#(#)'4!)#'`*&D!'*!$*'#)'-%1!/-4#%4#!4$&#%/Z!R!,#'!O#/Z!552
?B5!@\L•@kTZ!!553
X&*-/*5!0Z"Z5!0Z!81%H4#'Z!PB@MZ!23%1#b+&##!)#'`*&D4!%&#!&%&#Z!U%'!8*((H)Z!@B^@_W@B@AZ!!554
X•a)#&5!jZ5!IZ!j&-#'#&5!0Z!c&%H14#)5!%)/!NZ!c&%H14#)Z!PB@LZ!Qs3-#)'!N)'#&&H$'-*)!*+!N)+#3'-*)!89%-)4!E.!!555
c%&:#'#/! r#(*7%1! *+! 8#)'&%1! G*1 /-):4! -)! %)! 0)-(%1! c&% /#! U#'`*&DZ! Rf* 2! l)#Z! ?Z!556
$(-/WP\BkMPMLZ!557
89&-4'1#.5!rZOZ5!2ZQZ!r*E-)4*)5!rZ!f.4*)45!%)/!UZRZ!C&#)39Z!PBBTZ!U#'`*&D!%)%1.4-4!*+!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!!558
-)!;&#%'!X&-'%-)Z!R&*3Z!2*3Z!,#'Z!Q$-/#(-*1Z!RZ!O#/Z!PL\bP\LZ!559
8*)&%/.5!XZ5!2Z!O*&'#)4#)5!2Z2Z!U-#14#)5!GZ!G*H#5!CZCZ!8%17*b0&'%7-%5!IZ!Q11-4bN7#&4#)5!%)/!0Z!X*D1H)/Z!!560
PBPLZ! 2-(H1%'-*)! *+! C**'b%)/bO*H'9! "-4#%4#! 2$&#%/! %)/! Qd#3'4! *+! O-'-:%'-*)! 2'&%'#:-#4! '*!561
2H$$*&'! ,#'#&-)%&.! 8*)'-):#)3.! R1%))-):! -)! "#)(%&DZ! R%'9*:#)4Z! Me@P^L_W\LTZ! /*-W!562
@BZLLMBS$%'9*:#)4@PBLB\LTZ!563
"-#q5!GZGZ5!OZ!89&-p15!cZGZ!0)/#&4#)5!IZ8Z!I<&:#)4#)5!OZ!c*&$/%915!GZ!R#/#&4#)5!%)/!jZ!R#/#&4#)Z!PBBkZ!!564
lH'E&#%D!*+!2%1(*)#11%!"HE1-)b%44*3-%'#/!%E*&'-*)!-)!"%)-49!+H&!+%&(4Z!8%)!,#'!IZ\A^@P_W@PB@b565
@PBTZ!!566
"HEp5!8Z5!8Z!r-EE1#5!"Z!j#1'*)5!%)/!XZ!O3U%EZ!PBBMZ!0!-#`!*+!)#'`*&D!%)%1.4-4!'#&(-)*1*:.!%)/!-'4!!567
%$$1-3%'-*)! '*! +**'b%)/b(*H'9! /-4#%4#! (*/#11-):! %)/! $*1-3.! /#7#1*$(#)'Z! c&%)4E*H)/Z!568
Q(#&:Z!"-4Z!Tk5!AL•?TZ!569
"Ha%5!XfZ5!RZ!Q]%))*5!%)/!QZ!,#&:HZ!PB@\Z!89%&%3'#&-4'-34!*+!'9#!4$%'-*b'#($*&%1!)#'`*&D!*+!3%a1#!!570
(*7#(#)'4!-)!C&%)3#!*7#&!%!Tb.#%&!$#&-*/Z!R!,#'!O#/Z!@@A5!AM•M\Z!571
C&##(%)5!fZ8Z!@MA?Z!8#)'&%1-'.!-)!4*3-%1!)#'`*&D4W!3*)3#$'H%1!31%&-o3%'-*)Z!2*3Z!U#'`*&D4!@5!P@TbPLMZ!!572
;1%`-439)-:5!~Z5!IZ!f%]%&5!0Z!~%11)#&5!%)/!8Z!j*&)439*E#&Z!PB@AZ!8%a1#b/#&-7#/!2%1(*)#11%!#)'#&-3%!!573
4#&*7%&!"HE1-)!N)+#3'-*)4!-)!r#/!C*F#4!^,H1$#4!7H1$#4_!-)!c.&*15!0H4'&-%Z!I!~-1/1!"-4Z!TL^P_WLk@b574
LkLZ!!575
;&##)5!"ZOZ5!NZgZ!j-445!0ZRZ!O-'39#115!%)/!rZrZ!j%*Z!PBB?Z!Q4'-(%'#4!+*&!1*3%1!%)/!(*7#(#)'bE%4#/!!576
'&%)4(-44-*)! *+! E*7-)#! 'HE#&3H1*4-4! -)! X&-'-49! 3%a1#Z! R&*3##/-):4! *+! '9#! r*.%1! 2*3-#'.! XW!577
X-*1*:-3%1!23-#)3#4!PAT5!@BB@•@BBTZ!!578
G%H:5!UZ5!fZ!;#.&9*+#&5!0Z!f*)/#-5!QZ!"#&7-35!0Z!"#47%&4bf%&&-7#5!,Z!f*&#'*5!XZ!R-)-*&5!2Z!c9H&)#&5!%)/!!579
RZ!j1-(#DZ!PBPBZ!r%)D-):!'9#!#d#3'-7#)#44!*+!`*&1/`-/#!8l,N"b@M!:*7#&)(#)'!-)'#&7#)'-*)4Z!580
U%'!GH(!X#9%7Z!\^@P_W@LBLb@L@PZ!/*-W!@BZ@BL?S4\@TkPbBPBbB@BBMbB!581
G#1(45!OZ5!RZ!,%4'& H$5!RZ!;#&)#&b2(-/'5!%)/!jZ!O<1E%DZ!PBBLZ!29*&'!%)/!1*):!'#&(!(*&'%1-'.!%44*3-%'#/!!582
`-'9!+**/E*&)#!E%3'#&-%1!:%4'&*-)'#4'-)%1!-)+#3'-*)4W!&#:-4'&.!E%4#/!4'H/.Z!XOI5!LPkZ!583
G#)/#&4*)5!jZ5!%)/!8Z!O%4*)Z!PB@AZ!"-%:)*4-4!%)/!3*)'&*1!*+!2%1(*)#11%!"HE1-)!-)!/%-&.!9#&/4Z!N)!!584
R&%3'-3#Z!LM5!@T?b@k?Z!585
j)-o35!cZ5!OZ!l3#$#D5!0Z!j-&E-Š5!%)/!GZ!f#)qZ!PBPBZ!N($1-3%'-*)4!*+!8%a1#!c&%/#!+*&!'9#!2$&#%/!%)/!!586
8*)'&*1!*+!N)+#3'-*H4!"-4#%4#4!-)!21*7#)-%Z!C&*)'Z!,#'Z!23-Z!kW\T\Z!587
jH/-&D-#)#5!QZ5!;Z!2<&#)4#)5!OZ!c*&$/%915!fZ,Z!/#!j)#:'5!fZrZ!U-#14#)5!QZ!r%a#)E*&:5!2Z!09(#/5!%)/!!588
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
16
IZQZ!l14#)Z!PBPBZ!Q$-/#(-*1*:.!*+!2%1(*)#11%!#)'#&-3%!2#&*7%&!"HE1-)!-)!8%a1#!%)/!GH(%)4!-)!589
"#)(%&D5!@MMk!'*!PB@kW!%!r#'&*4$#3'-7#!~9*1#b;#)*(#bX%4#/!2'H/.Z!0$$1!Q)7-&*)!O-3&*E-*1Z!590
P@e?k^L_W#B@?M\b@MZ!/*-W!@BZ@@P?S0QOZB@?M\b@MZ!!591
f#E15!jZ5!GZ!f#)q5!XZ!R-)-*&5!%)/!cZ!2#19*&4'Z!PB@kZ!N($%3'!*+!U#'`*&D!03'-7-'.!*)!'9#!2$&#%/!*+!!592
N)+#3'-*H4!"-4#%4#4!'9&*H:9!'9#!;#&(%)!R-:!c&%/#!U#'`*&DZ!C&*)'!,#'!23-Z5!LW\?Z!593
f##D-'39%&*#)$9*)5!RZ5!GZ!,-:!rZ!2*((#&j%%45!%)/!CZ!0%'&H$Z!PBPLZ!c&#)/4!-)!2%1(*)#11%!"HE1-)!!594
*7#&!'-(#!-)!"#)(%&D!+&*(!+**/!%)/!%)-(%1!%'#/!-4*1%'#4Z!N)+#3'Z!;#)#'Z!Q7*1Z!@BT\ATZ!595
f#)q5!GZG5!0Z!j*9#&5!RZ!G€7#15!IZ!;#'9(%))5!8Z!2%H'#&bf*H-45!cZ!2#19*&4'5!%)/!CZIZ!8*)&%'94Z!PB@kZ!!596
"-4#%4#!2$&#%/!'9&*H:9!0)-(%1!O*7#(#)'4W!0!2'%'-3!%)/!c#($*&%1!U#'`*&D!0)%1.4-4!*+!R-:!597
c&%/#!-)!;#&(%).Z!Rf*2!l)#Z!ke@@^T_W#B@TT@MkZ!/*-W!@BZ@LA@S>*H&)%1Z$*)#ZB@TT@MkZ!!598
O3"*)*H:95!RZfZ5!"Z!C*:#1(%)5!2ZIZ!29-)5!OZ0Z!X&H))#&5!%)/!"ZGZ!f#-)Z!@MMMZ!2%1(*)#11%!#)'#&-3%!!599
4#&*'.$#!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)W!%)!#(#&:-):!-)+#3'-*H4!/-4#%4#!+*&!'9#!)*&'9#%4'#&)!6)-'#/!2'%'#4Z!IZ!600
81-)Z!O-3&*E-*1Z!LA5!P\@?bP\PAZ!601
O`#H5!OZOZ5!;Z!C*H&)-p5!cZ!G%1%4%5!UZ!c*+'5!%)/!2Z2Z!U-#14#)Z!PB@LZ!c#($*&%1!39%&%3'#&-4%'-*)!*+!'9#!!602
)#'`*&D!*+!"%)-49!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!%)/!-'4!-($1-3%'-*)!+*&!/-4#%4#!3*)'&*1W!PBBBbPBBMZ!R!603
,#'!O#/Z!@@B5!LAMbL?AZ!604
U%'%1#5!CZ5!0Z!;-*7%))-)-5!fZ!2%7-)-5!"Z!R%1(%5!fZ!R*44#)'-5!;Z!C-*!%)/!RZ!8%1-4'&-Z!PBBMZ!U#'`*&D!!605
%)%1.4-4!*+!N'%1-%)!3%a1#!'&%/#!$%a#&)4!%)/!#7%1H%'-*)!*+!&-4D4!+*&!$*'#)'-%1!/-4#%4#!4$&#%/Z!R!606
,#'!O#/Z!@eMP^\_WL\@bLTBZ!/*-W!@BZ@B@kS>Z$#'(#/ZPBBMZB?ZBPkZ!607
U-#14#)!fZrZ5!GZ!G*H#5!%)/!2Z2Z!U-#14#)Z!PBP@Z!U%&&%'-7#!r#7-#`!8*($%&-):!R&-)3-$1#4!%)/!N)4'&H(#)'4!!608
64#/!-)!c9&##!03'-7#!2H&7#-11%)3#!%)/!8*)'&*1!R&*:&%((#4!+*&!U*)bQ6b&#:H1%'#/!"-4#%4#4!-)!609
'9#!"%)-49!8%a1#!R*$H1%'-*)Z!C&*)'Z!,#'Z!23-Z!?Wk?T?TAZ!610
U-#14#)5!fZrZ!PBBLZ!r#7-#`!*+!$%'9*:#)#4-4!%)/!/-%:)*4'-3!(#'9*/4!*+!-((#/-%'#!#7%)3#!+*&!!611
#$-/#(-*1*:.!%)/!3*)'&*1!*+!2%1(*)#11%!"HE1-)!-)!3%a1#Z!,#'Z!O-3&*E-*1Z!@kP5!@bMZ!612
U-#14#)5!cZ"Z5!0ZXZ!jH/%915!2Z!l4'#&:%%&/5!%)/!fZrZ!U-#14#)Z!PB@LZ!;&*44!O%&:-)!f*44#4!"H#!!613
'*!2%1(*)#11%!"HE1-)! N)+#3'-*)! -)! "%)-49! "%-&.! 8%a1#! G#&/4Z! Q4'-(%'#/! E.! 2-(H1%'-*)!614
O*/#11-):Z!RZ!,#'Z!O#/Z!!@@@5!T@•kPZ!615
U€&#(%&D5!OZ5!UZ!G=D%)44*)5!2Z2Z!f#`#&-)5!0Z!f-)/E#&:5!%)/!0Z!I*)44*)Z!PB@@Z!U#'`*&D!%)%1.4-4!*+!!616
3%a1#!%)/! $-:!(*7#(#)'4! -)!2`#/#)W! (#%4H! #7%)'!+*&! /-4#%4#! 3*)'&*1! %)/! &-4D!E%4#/!617
4H&7#-11%)3#Z!R!,#'!O#/Z!MMWA?•MBZ!618
l&'-]bR#1%#]5!0Z5!"Z6Z!R+#-d#&5!rZIZ!2*%bO%:%19‹#45!%)/!CZIZ!;H-'-%)Z!PBBkZ!64#!*+!4*3-%1!)#'`*&D!!619
%)%1.4-4!'*!39%&%3'#&-]#!'9#!$%a#&)!*+!%)-(%1!(*7#(#)'4!-)!'9#!-)-'-%1!$9%4#4!*+!'9#!PBB@!+**'!620
%)/!(*H'9!/-4#%4#!^CO"_!#$-/#(-3!-)!'9#!6jZ!R!,#'!O#/Z!AkW\B•TTZ!621
R#&&.5!jZ,Z5!"ZCZ!j#1'*)5!2Z!"H+*H&5!8Z!O-1'#)EH&:5!2Z;Z!6(%)%!2#/*5!%)/!"ZfZ!r#)%H/Z!PBPLZ!r-4D!!622
+%3'*&4! +*&! 2%1(*)#11%! "HE1-)! *)! /%-&.! +%&(4! -)! l)'%&-*5! 8%)%/%Z! IZ! "%-&.! 23-Z!623
9a$4WSS/*-Z*&:S@BZL@k?S>/4ZPBPLbPLT@AZ!624
R-)-*&5!XZ5!CZIZ!8*)&%'945!XZ!R#'#&4#)5!%)/!cZ!2#19*&4'Z!PB@TZ!"#3-4-*)!4H$$*&'!+*&!&-4D4!(%)%:#&4!-)!'9#!!625
3%4#!*+!/#1-E#&%'#!+**/!3*)'%(-)%'-*)W!c9#!/%-&.!-)/H4'&.!%4!%)!#F%($1#Z!l(#:%bN)'!I!O%)%:#Z!626
TA5!@@\b@PPZ!627
R-)-*&5!XZ5!OZ!j*)439%D#5!6Z!R1%q5!GZ"Z!c9-#1#5!XZ!R#'#&4#)5!CZIZ!8*)&%'945!%)/!cZ!2#19*&4'Z!PB@P%Z!c9#!!628
'&%/#!)#'`*&D!-)!'9#!/%-&.!-)/H4'&.!%)/!-'4!-($1-3%'-*)!+*&!'9#!4$&#%/!*+!3*)'%(-)%'-*)Z!IZ!"%-&.!629
23-Z!MT5!kLT@bkLk@Z!630
R-)-*&5!XZ5!6Z!R1%q5!6Z!09&#)45!XZ!R#'#&4#)5!CZIZ!8*)&%'945!%)/!cZ!2#19*&4'Z!PB@PEZ!c9#!;#&(%)!(-1D.!`%.W!!631
'&%/#!4'&H3'H&#!*+!'9#!(-1D!-)/H4'&.!%)/!$*44-E1#!3*)4#hH#)3#4!*+!%!+**/!3&-4-4Z!IZ!89%-)!U#'`Z!632
23-Z!@P!^@_5!PTbLMZ!633
r%H'H&#%H5!2Z5!XZ!"H+*H&5!%)/!XZ!"H&%)/Z!PB@@Z!,H1)#&%E-1-'.!*+!%)-(%1!'&%/#!)#'`*&D4!'*!'9#!4$&#%/!*+!!634
-)+#3'-*H4!/-4#%4#4W!%!(#'9*/*1*:-3%1!%$$&*%39!%$$1-#/!'*!#7%1H%'-*)!%)/!#(#&:#)3.!3*)'&*1!635
4'&%'#:-#4!-)!3%a1#!C&%)3#5!PBBTZ!IZ!c&%)4E*H)/Z!Q(#&:Z!"-4Z!T?5!@@Bb@PBZ!636
r*E-)4*)5!2ZQZ5!OZ;Z!Q7#&#a5!%)/!rZOZ!89&-4'1#.Z!PBBAZ!r#3#)'!)#'`*&D!#7*1H'-*)!-)3&#%4#4!'9#!$*'#)'-%1!!637
+*&!1%&:#!#$-/#(-34!-)!'9#!X&-'-49!3%a1#!$*$H1%'-*)Z!IZ!rZ!2*3Z!N)'#&+%3#!\5!kkMbkA\Z!638
2Q;Q2!3*((H)-3%'-*)Z!PBPLZ!N)'#&)%1!/%'%!$&*7-/#/!E.!2Q;Q2!^)*'!$HE1-3!/*(%-)!/%'%4#'_Z!!639
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
17
2&#/)-D5!OQZ5!jZ!f%)q5!IZ0Z!G-3D45!XZrZ!O*&)-):4'%&b29%`5!cZ0Z!O%3D-#5!%)/!fZjZ!2391%'#&Z!PBP@Z!!640
0)'-(-3&*E-%1!-4'%)3#!%)/!:#)*(-3!39%&%3'#&-]%'-*)!*+!2%1(*)#11%!"HE1-)!-4*1%'#4!-)!3%a1#!641
+&*(!'9#!6)-'#/!2'%'#4Z!Rf*2!l)#Z!P@e@k^M_W#BP\Mk@AZ!/*-W!@BZ@LA@S>*H&)%1Z$*)#ZBP\Mk@AZ!!642
22N!PBPLZ!2%1(*)#11%5!f%E*&%'*&.!)*'-o%E1#!/-4#%4#4Z!07%-1%E1#!%'W!!643
9a$4WSS4'%'-4'-DZ44-Z/DSS4.:/*(4/%'%Œ•S…4.:/*(4D*/#v20fO†F%F-4v01/#&4:&H$$#†49*`v;644
&%$9†%%&vPB@kiA8PB@A†/%'%'.$#vf%E*&%'*&.Œ•iPCZ!033#44!*)W!\!0$&-1!PBPL!!645
2'J&D5!jZ"Z5!;Z!r#:H1%5!IZ!G#&)%)/#]5!fZ!j)*$+5!jZ!CH3945!rZ2Z!O*&&-45!%)/!RZ!"%7-#4Z!PBBkZ!8*)3#$'4!+*&!!646
&-4DbE%4#/!4H&7#-11%)3#!-)!'9#!o#1/!*+!7#'#&-)%&.!(#/-3-)#!%)/!7#'#&-)%&.!$HE1-3!9#%1'9W!-#`!647
*+!3H&&#)'!%$$&*%39#4Z!XO8!G#%1'9!2#&7!r#4Z!P?ekWPBZ!/*-W!@BZ@@?kS@\APbkMkLbkbPBZ!!648
c&%'%1*45!IZ0Z5!IZOZ!O%//#)5!;Z!O3;&%'95!"Z0Z!;&%9%(5!ŽZXZ!8*11-)45!%)/!2ZIZ!O*&#Z!PBPBZ!2$%'-%1!%)/!!649
)#'`*&D! 39%&%3'#&-4'-34! *+! N&-49! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'4Z! R! ,#'! O#/Z! @?LZ! @BTBMTZ! /*-W!650
@BZ@B@kS>Z$#'(#/ZPBPBZ@BTBMTZ !651
,%)/# &~%%15!jZfZ5!8Z!R-3 %44*5!QZ0Z!Q))45 ! OZQZ!8&%+'5!IZ!017%&# ]5!CZ!C#&)%)/#]5 !0Z!;-15!0Z!R#& #]5!%)/!2Z!!652
~#114Z!PB@kZ!U#'`*&D!%)%1.4-4!*+!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!-)!6&H:H%.W!‡H%)'-+.-):!9#'#&*:#)#-'.!+*&!653
&-4DbE%4#/! /-4#%4#! 4H&7#-11%)3#! %)/! 3*)'&*1Z! R! ,#'! O#/Z! @e@PLW@PbPPZ! /*-W!654
@BZ@B@kS>Z$#'(#/ZPB@TZ@PZBBLZ!!655
,#1-):5!IZ5!PBB\Z!"-%:)*4-4!%)/!3*)'&*1!*+!2%1(*)#11%!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)4!*)!"H'39!/%-&.!+%&(4Z!R9"!'9#4-4Z!!656
0)-(%1!G#%1'9!2#&7-3#5!"#7#)'#&5!c9#!U#'9#&1%)/45!@b@ALZ!!657
,#&)*)5!OZ8Z5!%)/!OZIZ!j##1-):Z!PBBMZ!r#$#)'-):!'9#!6j‚4!3%a1#!9#&/!%4!4'%'-3!%)/!/.)%(-3!)#'`*&D4Z!!658
R&*3!X-*1!23-Z!PAk^@kTk_W\kMb\AkZ!659
,-/*)/*5!XZ5!%)/!XZ!,*#1D1Z!PB@?Z!".)%(-3!)#'`*&D!(#%4H!#%1!'9#!-($%3'!*+!3%a1#!(%&D#'4!%)/!!660
%1$-)#!4H((#&-):!*)!'9#!&-4D!*+!#$-/#(-3!*H'E&#%D4!-)!'9#!2`-44!3%a1#!$*$H1%'-*)Z!XO8!,#'Z!661
r#4Z!@\5!@•@@Z!662
~%&)-3D5!fZ"Z5!fZrZ!U-#14#)5!IZ!U-#14#)5!%)/!OZ!;&#-)#&Z!PBBkZ!2-(H1%'-*)!(*/#1!#4'-(%'#4!*+!'#4'!!663
%33H&%3.!%)/!$&#/-3'-7#!7%1H#4!+*&!'9#!"%)-49!2%1(*)#11%!4H&7#-11%)3#!$&*:&%(!-)!/%-&.!9#&/4Z!664
R!,#'!O#/Z!AA5!P?\bLBLZ!!665
~%44#&(%)5!2Z5!%)/!jZ!C%H4'Z!@MM\Z!2*3-%1!U#'`*&D!0)%1.4-4!O#'9*/4!%)/!0$$1-3%'-*)4Z!8%(E&-/:#!!666
6)-7#&4-'.!Rƽ!U#`!‰*&D5!U‰Z!667
~%a45!"ZIZ5!%)/!2ZGZ!2'&*:%qZ!@MM?Z!8*11#3'-7#!/.)%(-34!*+!m4(%11b`*&1/n!)#'`*&D4Z!U%'H!LML5!\\Bb!668
\\PZ!!669
!670
Acknowledgments:!~#! '9 %)D! ' 9#! "% )-49 ! ,#'#& -)%&. ! %)/! C **/! 0/ (-)- 4'&%' -*)! ^ C,2c _! +*& ! '9#! : **/!671
3*11%E*&%'-*)!%)/!2Q;Q2!N))*7%'-*)!RS2!+*&!$&*7-/-):!'9#!/%'%!+*&!'9#!$#)'#/!4'H/.Z!!672
673
Aut ho r contributionsW! f#/! '9#! 4'H/.W! XZ8Z5! 3*)3#-7#/! %)/! /#4-:)#/! '9#! 4'H/.W! XZ8Z5!QZ"e! o:H&#!674
$&#$%&%'-*)W!XZ8Z5!QZ"e!`&*'#!'9#!o&4'!/&%+'!*+!'9#!$%$#&W!XZ8Ze!3*($H'%'-*)%1!)#'`*&D!%)%1.4-4W!XZ8Z5!675
QZ"Ze!3*/-):!*+!'9#!(*/#1W!XZ8Ze!-#`!%)/!#/-'-):!*+!'9#!$%$#&W!XZ8Z5!QZ"Z5!RjZ5!fRZ5!RrZ5!OZrZ5!l0Z5!676
frZ! 011! %H'9*&4! 9%7#! &#%/! %)/! %:&##/! '*! '9#! $HE1-49#/! 7#&4-*)! *+! '9#! (%)H43&-$'Z c9-4! `*&D! `%4!677
4H$$*&'#/! E.! '9#! "%)4D! ,#'#&-)„&! j*)4*&'-H(! ^"jb,Qc_5! 3**$#&%'-*)! E#'`##)! '9#! 6)-7#&4-'.! *+!678
8*$#)9%:#)!^68RG_5!2'%'#)4!2#&H(!N)4'-'H'!^22N_!%)/!'9#!"%)-49!,#'#&-)%&.!%)/!C**/!0/(-)-4'&%'-*)!679
^C,2c_!+*&!'9#!$#&+*&(%)3#!*+!'9#!7#'#&-)%&.!$HE1-3!4#&7-3#!%:&##(#)'!H)/#&!'9#!"%)-49!O-)-4'&.!*+!680
Q)7-&*)(#)'!%)/!C**/Z!681
682
Competing interests:!c9#!%H'9*&4!/#31%&#!)*!3*($#'-):!-)'#'4Z!683
!684
Additional information:!c9#!*)1-)#!7#&4-*)!3*)'%-)4!4H$$1#(#)'%&.!(%'#&-%1!%7%-1%E1#!%'W!685
!686
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
18
Figure legend 687
!688
C-:H&#!@Z ^0_!X*F!$1*'4!49*`-):!'9#!1#):'9!^(*)'94_!+%&(4!&#(%-)#/!-)!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!689
^1#+'_!%)/!'9#!)H(E#&!*+!+%&(4!$#&!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!*7#&!'9#!@@b.#%&!$#&-*/!^&-:9'_Z!U*'#!'9%'!%!+%&(!690
3*H1/!39%):#!-'4!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!%)/!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!/H&-):!'9#!4'H/.!$#&-*/5!%)/!%4!%!H1'5!%!691
+%&(!3*H1/!9%7#!4#7#&%1!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!%)/!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!*7#&!'9#!@@b.#%&!$#&-*/Z!^X_!X*F!692
$1*'!49*`-):!'9#!1#):'9!^(*)'94_!+%&(4!&#(%-)#/!-)! $&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!^1#+'_!%)/!'9#!)H(E#&!*+!693
+%&(4!$#&! $&*/H3'-*)! 3%'#:*&.! *7#&! '9#!@@b.#%&! $#&-*/! ^&- :9'_Z! c9#! o:H&#! -)31H/#4! %11! 3%a1#! +%&(45!694
-)31H/-):!'9*4#!+%&(4!`-'9*H'!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!3*))#3'-*)4!'*!*'9#&!+%&(4Z!^8_!N)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!*+!695
3%a1#! +%&(4! 4'&%'-o#/! E.! '9#! $&*/H3'-*)! 3%'#:*&-#4! %3&*44! mU#:%'-7#n5! mR*4-'-7#n5! m6)D)*`)n! %)/!696
mf-D#1.!)#:%'-7#n!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#45!`-'9!+%&(4!-)!nR*4-'-7#n!%)/!n6)D)*`)n!3%'#:*&-#4!3*)4-/#&#/!697
%4!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!%)/!+%&(4!-)!mU#:%'-7#n!%)/!mf-D#1.!)#:%'-7#n!3*)4-/#&#/!%4!)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(4Z!698
!699
C-:H&#!PZ!U#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!*+!)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!^1#+'!4-/#_!%)/!2Z!"HE1-)!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!^&-:9'!4-/#_W!700
^0_! '9#! '*'%1! )H(E#&! *+! +%&(4! '9%'! (*7#/! 3%a1#Z! ^X_!07#&%:#! /#:&##Z! ^8_!07#&%:#! $%'9! 1#):'9Z! ^"_!701
X#'`##))#44Z!^Q_!"#)4-'.Z!^C_!O*/H1%&-'.Z!^;_!8*($*)#)'Z!^G_!81*4#)#44Z!f-:9'!$-)D!1-)#4!-)!#%39!*+!702
'9#! $1*'4! %&#! /%'#4! *+! (%-)! -($1#(#)'%'-*)4! *+! /-4#%4#! 3*)'&*1! (#%4H! %'#/! '*! (*7#(#)'!703
'&-3'-*)4!E#'`##)!/-d#&#)'!&#:-*)4!-)!%//-'-*)!'*!(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)!E#'`##)!-)+#3'#/!%)/!)*)b704
-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!4-)3#!PB@B!^c%E1#!2@_5!`-'9!'9#!+*11*`-):!-($1#(#)'%'-*)4!&#|#3'#/W!-_!@TSBASPB@L5!`9#)!705
&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)!`%4!-($1#(#)'#/5!$&*9-E-'-):!'9#!'&%)4$*&'%'-*)!*+!%)-(%14!+&*(!IH'1%)/!'*!'9#!N41%)/4e!706
--_!PBS@BSPB@T5!`9#)!&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)!3&-'#&-%!`#&#!-4#/5!#F$%)/-):!'9#!1*`b$%1#)3#!%&#%!'*!-)31H/#!707
3#&'%-)! $%&'4! *+! IH'1%)/e! ---_! PMS@@SPB@A5! `9#)! &#:-*)%1-4%'-*)! `%4! /-43*)'-)H#/! %)/! (*7#(#)'!708
'&-3'-*)4!`#&#!#F'#)/#/!'*!%11!'#4'b$*4-'-7#!+%&(4!^c%E1#!2@_Z!C-:H&#!2k!49*`4!'9#!)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!709
+*&!E*'9!-)+#3'#/!%)/!)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!'*:#'9#&Z!710
!711
C-:H&#! LZ! c9#! *//4! &%'-*! *+! 2Z! "HE1-)! -)+#3'-*)! /H#! '*! 1*3%1! ^&%/-H4! *+! T! D(_! %)/! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'!712
'&%)4(-44-*)45!%3&*44!$&#/-3'-*)!(*)'94!*)#!'9&*H:9!4-F!E%4#/!*)!$-*H4!@!(*)'9!/%'%!^4##W!(%'#&-%1!713
%)/!(#'9*/4!$%&'_Z!0/>H4'#/!+*&!+%&(!4-]#5!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!(*)'95!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!*+!+%&(4!%)/!714
'*'%1!)#-:9E*H&9**/!^'*'%1!)H(E#&!*+!+%&(4!-)!%!&%/-H4!*+!T!D(!%&*H)/!'9#!-)+#3'#/!+%&(_Z!U*'#!'9%'!715
1*3%1! '&%)4(-44-*)4! -)31H/#/! %11! $&#(-4#4! ^-Z#Z5! -)31H/-):! +%&(4! `-'9*H'! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'4! '*! *'9#&!716
$&#(-4#4_Z!c9#!*//4!&%'-*!'*!E#3*(#!2Z!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)!7-%!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!*&!1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)4!717
3%13H1%'#/!E%4#/!*)!$-*H4!Pb5!Lb!%)/!\b(*)'94!/%'%!%&#!49*`)!-)!C-:H&#!2?!%)/!c%E1#!2Tb2AZ!718
!719
C-:H&#!\Z!2-(H1%'-*)!*+!'9#!4$&#%/!*+!2Z!"HE1-)!-)!"%)-49!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D4!+*&!'9#!$#&-*/!PB@Tb720
PB@A! /H&-):! '9#! &#:-*)%1-4%'-*)! ^'*$_! %)/! '9#! $#&-*/! PB@?bPBPB! %+'#&! &#:-*)%1-4%'-*)! ^E*a*(_Z!721
"#$#)/-):!*)!'9#!)#'`*&D!(*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'.!1#7#1!w!%)/!'9#!/-4#%4#!'&%)4(-44-*)!$&*E%E-1-'.!$5!'9#!722
4$&#%/!*+!2Z!"HE1-)!`%4!4-(H1%'#/!*)!*E4#&7#/!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D!%3'-7-'-#4!^7#&'-3%1!*&%):#!1-)#4_!%)/!723
9.$*'9#'-3%11.!-)3&#%4#/!%)/!/#3&#%4#/!(*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'-#4!%(*):!3%a1#!+%&(#&4Z!^0_!O#/-%)!%'-7#!724
*H'E&#%D! 4-]#! ^(#%4H&#/! %4! '9#! $&*$*&'-*)! *+! -)+#3'#/! )*/#4! %(*):! %11! )*/#4! -)! '9#! (*7#(#)'!725
)#'`*&D_!•!hH%&'-1#4!^‡@!%)/!‡L_Z!^X_! O#/-%)!*H'E&#%D!$&*E%E-1-'.!^•!MTi!8N_Z!^8_!O#/-%)!*H'E&#%D!726
/H&%'-*)!-)!(*)'94!•!hH%&'-1#4!^‡@!%)/!‡L_Z!!727
!728
!729
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
19
c%E1 # !@Z!"#o)-'-*)!*+!'9#!#-:9'!3%a1#!+%&(!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!H4#/!-)!'9#!$#)'!4'H/.!730
!731
R&*/H3'-*)!8%'#:*&.!
"#o)-'-*)!!
"%-&.!+%&(4!
"#1-7#&!(-1D!'*!%!/%-&.!3*($%).!
G#-+#&!&%-4-):!+%&(4!
G-:9!$&*$*&'-*)! *+!9#-+#&4W!}! kBi!/%-&.b!*&!3&*44E&##/! 9#-+#&4!
*H'!*+!(*&#!'9%)!LB!%)-(%1b.#%&4!
2(%11!41%H:9'#&!3%1+!+%&(4!
"#1-7#&!PB!'*!@BB!EH11!3%17#4!'*!41%H:9'#&!$#&!.#%&W!}!?Bi!/%-&.b!
*&!3&*44E&##/!%)-(%14!
f%&:#!41%H:9'#&!3%1+!+%&(4!
"#1-7#&!(*&#!'9%)!@BB!EH114u!3%17#4!'*!41%H:9'#&!$#&!.#%&W!}!?Bi!
/%-&.b!*&!3&*44E&##/!%)-(%14!
2(%11!E##+!3%a1#!+%&(4!
X#'`##)! @B! %)/! TB! %)-(%1b.#%&4W! {! PBi! 3*`4e! E##+b! *&!
3&*44E&##/4!3*)4'-'H'#!•!?Bi!*+!%11!%)-(%14!$#&!.#%&!
f%&:#!E##+!3%a1#!+%&(4!
}! TB! %)-(%1b.#%&4W! {! PBi! 3*`4! %)/! E##+b! *&! 3&*44E&##/4!
3*)4'-'H'#!•!?Bi!*+!%11!%)-(%14!$#&!.#%&!
l'9#&! 4(%11! +%&(4! x! @B!
%)-(%14!$#&!.#%&!
C%&(4!'9%'!/*!)*'!o'!-)'*!%E*7#!3%'#:*&-#4!%)/!9%7#!x!@B!%)-(%14!
%7#&%:#/!*7#&!'9#!.#%&!
l'9#&! 1%&:#! +%&(4! {! @B!
%)-(%14!$#&!.#%&!
C%&(4!'9%'!/*!)*'!o'!'9#!%E*7#!3%'#:*&-#4!%)/!9%7#!{!@B!%)-(%14!
%7#&%:#/!*7#&!'9#!.#%&!
!732
733
h-ps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4674114
20
734
!
c%E1 # !PZ!0!/#43&-$'-*)!*+!)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!3%13H1%'#/!-)!'9#!$#)'!4'H/.!
Ter m
Definition
The average
degree
c9#!/#:&##!(#%4H!'9#!%7#&%:#!)H(E#&!*+!+%&(!1-)D4!-)!'9#!(*)'91.!)#'`*&DZ!N'!-4!%!
9#1$+H1! $%&%(#'#&! +*&! 39%&%3'#&-]-):! '9#! *7#&%11! /#)4-'.! *+! %! )#'`*&DZ! C*&! /-'#/!
)#'`*&D45!'9#!-)b/#:&##!-4!'9#!)H(E#&!*+!-)3*(-):!1-)D45!`9#&#%4!'9#!*H'b/#:&##!-4!'9#!
)H(E#&!*+!*H':*-):!1-)D4Z!8%a1#!+%&(4!`-'9!%!9-:9#&!%7#&%:#!/#:&##!^-)!%)/!*H'_!%&#!%'!
9-:9#&!&-4D!'*!-)+#3'-*)!7-%!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!%)/S*&!9%7#!%!9-:9#&!$&*E%E-1-'.!'*!-)+#3'!%!
1%&:#&!)H(E#&!*+!*'9#&!3%a1#!+%&(4!^~%44#&(%)!%)/!C%H4'5!@MM\_Z!
Average path
length
c9#!%7#&%:#!)H(E#&!*+!49*&'#4'!4'#$4!'*!(*7#!+&*(!*)#!3%a1#!+%&(!-)!'9#!)#'`*&D!'*!
%)*'9#&Z!N'! -)/-3%'#4! 9*`! mhH-3D1.n! -)+#3'-*)! 3%)! 4$&#%/! +&*(! *)#! +%&(! '*! %)*'9#&!
^~%a4!%)/!2'&*:%q5!@MM?_Z!
Betweenness
G*`!*+'#)!%! +%&(!%$$#%&4! *)! '9#!49*&'#4'! $%'9!E#'`##)!$%-&4! *+!*'9#&! +%&(4!-)!'9#!
)#'`*&DZ! N'! (#%4H! 9*`! -($*&'%)'! +%&(4! %&#! '*! (%-)'%-)-):! 3*))#3'-7-'.! -)! '9#!
)#'`*&DZ!c9#!%7#&%:#!E#'`##))#44!*+!%!)#'`*&D!$&*7-/#4!-)4-:9'4!-)'*!'9#!$&*$*&'-*)!
*+!)*/#4!'9%'!%3'!%4!-)'#&(#/-%&-#4!-)!'9#!)#'`*&D!^-Z#Z5!%4!%!tE&-/:#u!E#'`##)!'`*!4HEb
)#'`*&D4_Z!N/#)'-+.-):!9HE4!-)!'9#!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!)#'`*&D!(%.!E#!3&H3-%1!+*&!3*)'&*1!
$&*:&%((#4!%-(#/!%'!&#/H3-):!'9#!&-4D!*+!/-4#%4#!4$&#%/!^C&##(%)5!@MA?_Z!
Density
c9#! &%'-*! E#'`##)! '9#! $*'#)'-%1! %7%-1%E1#! )H(E#&! *+! 1-)D4! E#'`##)! )*/#4! -)! '9#!
)#'`*&D!%)/!'9#!)H(E#&!*+!#F-4'-):!1-)D4!-)!'9#!)#'`*&DZ!G-:9#&b/#)4-'.!(*7#(#)'!
)#'`*&D4!%&#!%44*3-%'#/!`-'9!9-:9#&!(*7#(#)'!%3'-7-'-#4!E#'`##)!+%&(4!^~%44#&(%)!
%)/!C%H4'5!@MM\_Z!!
Modularity
c9#!/#:&##!'*!`9-39!%!)#'`*&D!3%)!E#!/-7-/#/!-)'*!31H4'#&4S3*((H)-'-#4Z!U#'`*&D4!
`-'9!9-:9!(*/H1%&-'.!'#)/!'*!9%7#!:&*H$4!*+!+%&(4!'9%'!%&#!(*&#!-)'#&3*))#3'#/!7-%!
(*7#(#)'4!%'-7#!'*!'9#!'!*+!'9#!)#'`*&D!^-Z#Z5!+%&(4!*H'4-/#!*+!'9#-&!:&*H$_!^~%a4!
%)/!2'&*:%q5!@MM?_Z!!!
Component
!
Wea kly/s trong ly
connected
component
0!:&*H$!*+!)*/#4!3*))#3'#/!'*!#%39!*'9#&!E.!*)#!*&!(*&#!$%'94e!%!3*($*)#)'!3%)!E#!
`#%D!*&!4'&*):Z!!
!
~#% D1.W! ! 0! `# %D1. ! 3*)) #3 '#/ ! 3*($* )#)' ! -4 ! %! :& *H$! *+ ! )*/# 4! ' 9%' ! %&#! %1 1! &#%3 9%E1# !
+&*(! #%39! *'9#&! EH'! (%.! )*'! E#! o&(1.! 3*))#3'#/5! `9-1#! %! 4'&*):1.! 3*))#3'#/!
3*($*)#)'!-4!%!:&*H$!*+!)*/#4!`9#&#!#7#&.!)*/#!-4!&#%39%E1#!+&*(!#7#&.!*'9#&!)*/#!
'9&*H:9!%!/-'#/!$%'9Z!0!+H11.!3*))#3'#/!)#'`*&D!9%4!*)1.!*)#!3*($*)#)'5!`9-1#!%!
(*&#!+&%:(#)'#/!)#'`*&D!9%4!(*&#!3*($*)#)'4!^r*E-)4*)!#'!%1Z5!PBBA_Z!
Closeness
c9#!%7#&%:#!31*4#)#44!*+!%!)#'`*&D!(#%4H!9*`!hH-3D1.!)*/#4!3%)!%33#44!%11!*'9#&!
)*/#4! -)! '9#! )#'`*&DZ! U#'`*&D4! `-'9! 9-:9! 31*4#)#44! %&#! 9-:91.! 3*))#3'#/5! %)/!
-)+#3'-*)4! 3%)! |*`! '9&*H:9! '9#! )#'`*&D! #s3-#)'1.Z! N)! %! /-'#/! )#'`*&D5! *H'b
31*4#)#44! %&#! '9#! *H'E*H)/S*H'b:*-):! 1-)D45! %)/! -)b31*4#)#44! %&#! '9#!
-)E*H)/S-)3*(-):!1-)D4!^~%44#&(%)!%)/!C%H4'5!@MM\_Z
Scale-free
0!)#'`*&D!-4!/#o)#/!%4!43%1#!+&##!-+!-'4u!/#:&##!/-4'&-EH'-*)!R&^D_!9%4!%!$*`#&!1%`!
D‘w!+*&(!%)/!-4!&*EH4'!-)!-'4!-1-#)3#!'*!&%)/*(!+%-1H!^O`#H!#'!%1Z5!PB@Le X&*-/*!
%)/!81%H4#'5!PB@M_Z!!
Assortativity
c#)/#)3.!*+!)*/#4!'*!3*))#3'!`-'9!4-(-1%&!^$*4-'-7#!%44*&'%'-7-'._!*&!/-44-(-1%&!)*/#4!
^)#:%'-7#!%44*&'%'-7-'._!^O`#H!#'!%1Z5!PB@Le X&*-/*!%)/!81%H4#'5!PB@M_Z!!
21
!735
"#$%&'!()!*+,!-./!01.23!34.5#6$!24'!1'6$24!*7.6243,!89&73!&'79#6':!#6!S.!;%<1#6!#68'=2#.6!=92'$.&#'3!*1'82,!96:!24'!6%7<'&!.8!89&73!0'&!#68'=2#.6!=92'$.&>!.?'&!24'!((@>'9&!0'&#.:!*&#$42,A!B.2'!736
2492!9!89&7!=.%1:!=496$'!#23!#68'=2#.6!=92'$.&>!96:!0&.:%=2#.6!=92'$.&>!:%$!24'!32%:>!0'&#.:C!96:!93!9!&'3%12C!9!89&7!=.%1:!49?'!3'?'&91!#68'=2#.6!=92'$.&#'3!96:!0&.:%=2#.6!=92'$.&#'3!.?'&!737
24'!((@>'9&!0'&#.:A!*-,!-./!01.2!34.5#6$!24'!1'6$24!*7.6243,!89&73!&'79#6':!#6!0&.:%=2#.6!=92'$.&#'3!*1'82,!96:!24'!6%7<'&!.8!89&73!0'&!0&.:%=2#.6!=92'$.&>!.?'&!24'!((@>'9&!0'&#.:!*&#$42,A!D4'!738
E$%&'!#6=1%:'3!911!=9F1'!89&73C!#6=1%:#6$!24.3'!89&73!5#24.%2!=9F1'!7.?'7'62!=.66'=2#.63!2.!.24'&!89&73A!*G,!H68'=2#.6!=92'$.&#'3!.8!=9F1'!89&73!32&92#E':!<>!24'!0&.:%=2#.6!=92'$.&#'3!9=&.33!739
IB'$92#?'JC!IK.3#2#?'JC!IL6M6.56J!96:!IN#M'1>!6'$92#?'J!#68'=2#.6!=92'$.&#'3C!5#24!89&73!#6!JK.3#2#?'J!96:!JL6M6.56J!=92'$.&#'3!=.63#:'&':!93!#68'=2':!89&73!96:!89&73!#6!IB'$92#?'J!96:!740
IN#M'1>!6'$92#?'J!=.63#:'&':!93!6.6@#68'=2':!89&73A741
0
50
100
A B C D
Infection Category
Number of months
1000
2000
5000
10000
20000
2010 2015 2020
Time
Number of farms
Infection Category
A
B
C
D
A
0
50
100
Production Category
Number of months
500
1000
2000
5000
2010 2015 2020
Time
Number of farms
Production Category
Beef large
Beef small
Dairy
Heifer
Other large
Other small
Slaughter Calve Large
Slaughter Calve Small
B
Infection Category A Infection Category B
Infection Category C Infection Category D
Production Category Beef large
Beef small
Dairy
Heifer
Other large
Other small
Slaughter Calve Large
Slaughter Calve Small
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2015 2020
Date
Percentage
Bornholm
Zealand
Funen
Jutland − South
Jutland − South−West
Jutland − Central−West
Jutland − Ost
Jutland − Central
Himmerland
Jutland − North
Total Denmark
AB
2010
2011
2012
45%
95%
48%
88%
Years
C
=Negative
=Positive
=Unknown
=Likely negative
A. Negative B. Positive
C. Unknown D. Likely negative
22
742
"#$%&'!O)!B'25.&M!0&.0'&2#'3!.8!6.6@#68'=2':!89&73!*1'82!3#:',!96:!S.!;%<1#6!#68'=2':!89&73!*&#$42!3#:',)!*+,!24'!2.291!6%7<'&!.8!89&73!2492!7.?':!=9F1'A!*-,!+?'&9$ '! :'$&' 'A !*G,!+?'& 9$'!0 92 4!1'6 $2 4A!743
*;,!-'25''66'33A!*P,!;'63#2>A!*",!Q.:%19>A!*R,!G.70.6'62A!*S,!G1.3'6'33A!N#$42!0#6M!1#6'3!#6!'9=4!.8!24'!01.23!9&'!:92'3!.8!79#6!#701'7'6292#.63!.8!:#3'93'!=.62&.1!7'93%&'3!&'192':!2.!7.?'7'62!744
&'32&#=2#.63!<'25''6!:#T'&'62!&'$#.63!#6!9::#2#.6!2.!7.?'7'62!&'32&#=2#.6!<'25''6!#68'=2':!96:!6.6@#68'=2':!89&73!3#6='!OU(U!*D9<1'!V(,C!5#24!24'!8.11.5#6$!#701'7'6292#.63!&'W'=2':)!i,!(XYUZYOU([C!745
54'6!&'$#.691#392#.6!593!#701'7'62':C!0&.4#<#2#6$!24'!2&9630.&292#.6!.8!96#7913!8&.7!\%2196:!2.!24'!H3196:3]!ii,!OUY(UYOU(XC!54'6!&'$#.691#392#.6!='	!5'&'!&'?#3':C!'/096:#6$!24'!1.5@0&'?91'6='!746
9&'9!2.! #6=1%:'! ='&29#6!09&23!.8! \%2196:]!iii,!O^Y((YOU(ZC!54'6! &'$#.691#392#.6! 593!:#3=.62#6%':!96:!7.?'7'62! &'32&#=2#.63! 5'&'!'/2'6:':!2.!911! 2'32@0.3#2#?'!89&73! *D9<1'!V(,A!"#$%&'!V_! 34.53! 24'!747
6'25.&M!0&.0'&2#'3!8.&!<.24!#68'=2':!96:!6.6@#68'=2':!89&73!2.$'24'&A!!748
23
749
!750
"#$%&'![)!D4'! .::3!&92#.! .8!S.!;%<1#6!#68'=2#.6!:%'!2.!1.=91!*&9:#%3!.8!X! M7,!96:!=9F1'!7.?'7'62!2&9637#33#.63C!9=&.33!0&':#=2#.6!7.6243!.6'!24&.%$4!3#/!<93':!.6! 0&'?#.%3!(! 7.624!:929!*3'')!792'[!96:!751
7'24.:3!09&2,A!+:`%32':!8.&!89&7!3#a'C!=9F1'!7.?'7'62!7.624C!0&.:%=2#.6!=92'$.&>!.8!89&73!96:!2.291!6'#$4<.%&4..:!*2.291!6%7<'&!.8! 89&73!#6! 9!&9:#%3!.8!X!M7! 9&.%6:!24'!#68'=2':!89&7,A!B.2'! 2492!1.=91!752
2&9637#33#.63!#6=1%:':!911!0&'7#3'3!*#A'AC!#6=1%:#6$!89&73!5#24.%2!=9F1'!7.?'7'623!2.!.24'&!0&'7#3'3,A!D4'!.::3!&92#.!2.!<'=.7'!S.!;%<1#6!#68'=2#.6!?#9!=9F1'!7.?'7'623!.&!1.=91!2&9637#33#.63!=91=%192':!<93':!753
.6!0&'?#.%3!O@C![@!96:!b@7.6243!:929!9&'!34.56!#6!"#$%&'!Vc!96:!D9<1'!VX@VZA!754
Next month
Next two months
Next three months
Next four months
Next five months
Next six months
Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Odds Ratio with 95% CI
Exposure to local or cattle movement transmissions
24
755
!756
"#$%&'!b)!V#7%192#.6!.8!24'!30&'9:!.8!S.!;%<1#6!#6!;96#34!=9F1'!7.?'7'62!6'25.&M3!8.&!24'!0'&#.:!OU(X@OU(Z!:%$!24'!&'$#.691#392#.6!*2.0,!96:!24'!0'&#.:!OU(c@OUOU!982'&!&'$#.691#392#.6!*<.F.7,A!;'0'6:#6$!757
.6!24'!6'25.&M!7.?'7'62!9=2#?#2>!1'?'1!d!96:!24'!:#3'93'!2&9637#33#.6!0&.<9<#1#2>!p,!24'!30&'9:!.8!S.!;%<1#6!593!3#7%192':!.6!.<3'&?':!7.?'7'62!6'25.&M!9=2#?#2#'3!*?'&2#=91!.&96$'!1#6'3,!96:!4>0.24'2#=911>!758
#6=&'93':!96:!:'=&'93':!7.?'7'62!9=2#?#2#'3!97.6$!=9F1'!89&7'&3A!*+,!Q':#96!&'192#?'!.%2<&'9M!3#a'!*7'93%&':!93!24'!0&.0.&2#.6!.8!#68'=2':!6.:'3!97.6$!911!6.:'3!#6!24'!7.?'7'62!6'25.&M,!e!f%9&2#1'3!*g(!759
96:!g[,A!*-,!Q':#96!.%2<&'9M!0&.<9<#1#2>!*e!^Xh!GH,A!*G,!Q':#96!.%2<&'9M!:%&92#.6!#6!7.6243!e!f%9&2#1'3!*g(!96:!g[,A!!760
25
Supplementary information
Social network analysis reveals the failure of between-farm movement restrictions
to reduce Salmonella transmission
B. Conrady1,2*, E.H. Dervic2,3, P. Klimek2,3,4, L. Pedersen1,5, M. Merhi Reimert1, P.
Rasmussen1, O.O. Apenteng1, L.R. Nielsen1
1!;'09&27'62!.8!i'2'E&>!96:!+6#791!V=#'6='3C!L6#?'&3#2>!.8!G.0'649$'6C!R&j66'$k&:3?'`!cC!(cZU!"&':'&#M3<'&$!G!;'679&M!
2!G.701'/#2>!V=#'6='!S%<!i#'669C!\.3'832l:2'&!V2&9m'![^C!(UcU!i#'669C!+%32	!
3!V%001>!G49#6!H62'11#$'6='!H632#2%2'!+%32	C!\.3'832l:2'&!V2&9m'![^C!(UcU!i#'669C!+%32	!
4 V'=2#.6!8.&!V=#'6='!.8!G.701'/!V>32'73C!Q':#=91!L6#?'&3#2>!.8!i#'669C!V0#291$933'!O[C!(U^U!i#'669C!+%32 	 !
5!VPRPV!H66.?92#.6!KYVC!VM'`<>C!+$&.!"..:!K9&M!(XC!cOUU!+9&4%3!BC!;'679&M!!
!
V8*&$*)/-):!%H'9*&W!X#%'#!8*)&%/.5!E3*)Y4H)/ZDHZ/D!!
c%E1 # ! 2@W! l7#&7-#`! *+! 1#:-41%'-7#! *&/#&4! %)/! 39% ):#4! -)! '9#! "%)- 49! 4H&7#-11%) 3#! %)/! #&%/-3%' - *)!
$&*:&%((#!+*&!S. "HE1-)!-)!3%a1#5!4H39!%4!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#45!(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)4!%)/!*'9#&!3*)'&*1!
(#%4H!-)31H/-):!ls3-%1!,#'#&-)%&.!2H$#&7-4-*)!^l,2_!E.!'9#!7#'#&-)%&.!%H'9*&-'-#4Z!2##!/#43&-$'-*)!
*+!'9#!'#4'-):!439#(#!-)!'9#!+**')*'#!*+!'9#!c%E1#!2@Z!!
f#:-41%'-7#!*&/#&!
)*Z!
Qd#3'-7#!!
+&*(!/%'#!
f#7#14!
O*7#(#)'!
'&-3'-*)4!
l'9#&!3*)'&*1!
(#%4H!
XQj!)*Z!?B@!!
(updated in BEK
no. 974,
413 and
686)
BTS@BSPBBP!
!
(15/12/2002,
11/06/2003 and
02/08/2003)
f@W!"%-&.!9#&/4W!E#1*`!
'9#!'`*!'#4'!3&-'#&-%!*)!
XH1D!'%)D!(-1D!^XcO_!
U*)b/%-&.W!%11!*+!?!E1**/!
4%($1#4!E#1*`!TB!
l"8iZ!
!
fPW!c**!9-:9!%)'-E*/.!
1#7#1!'*!E#!$1%3#!-)!f@5!*&!
#)'!3*)'%3'!'*!fP!*&!
fLb$&*$#&'-#4Z!
!
fLW!X%3'#&-%!/#'#3'#/!E.!
3H1'H&#!H$*)!31-)-3%1!
4H4$-3-*)Z!
!
6)D)*`)!1#7#1W!)*'!
#)*H:9!-)+*&(%'-*)!
%7%-1%E1#!'*!31%44-+.Z!
f*3D-):!$#&-*/!+*&!L!
(*)'94!-)!fP!H$*)!
$H&39%4#!*&!3*)'%3'!
`-'9!*'9#&!3%a1#!
$&*$#&'-#4!)*'!-)!f@Z!
!
fL!*)1.!%11*`#/!'*!
(*7#!3%a1#!'*!
41%H:9'#&5!)*'!4#11!
+*&!1-7#!$H&$*4#Z!
ls3-%1!,#'#&-)%&.!
2H$#&7-4-*)!^l,2_!*+!
%11!fLb$&*$#&'-#4Z!
!
2$#3-%1!9.:-#)-3!
41%H:9'#&!$&*3#/H!
%)/!$*4'b41%H:9'#&!
4`%E4!*+!3%&3%44#4!
+&*(!fL!+*&!%'!1#%4'!L!
(*)'94!H$*)!
/#'#3'-*)Z!
!
G#%'!'&#%'(#)'!*+!
'#4'b$*4-'-7#!E##+Z!
XQj!)*Z!@@P!!
(Combined with
salmonella
legislation for
pigs)
BTSBLSPBBT!
2%(#!%4!%E*7#Z!
2%(#!%4!%E*7#5!!
$1H4!/H'.!*+!
/-431*4H&#!*+!
4%1(*)#11%!4'%'H4!'*!
%11!`9*!:*'!-)!
3*)'%3'!`-'9!'9#!
$&*$#&'.Z!
2%(#!%4!%E*7#5!$1H4!
l,2!`-'9!4$#3-%1!
&#hH-&#(#)'4!+*&!
$&*$#&'-#4!`-'9!
(H1'--4'%)'!S.
c.$9-(H&-H(!
"c@B\Z!
XQj!)*Z!@MA!
(Combined order
for pigs and caRle,
CaRle levels
PTSBLSPBBk!
f#7#1!@!4$1-'!-)'*W!
f@%W!%4!$-*H4!f@!
f@EW!XcO!3H'b*d!\B!
l"8i!%11*`-):!
f*3D-):!$#&-*/!
39%):#/!'*!L!`##D4!
-)!fP!H$*)!
$H&39%4#!*&!3*)'%3'!
2%(#!%4!%E*7#5!!
$1H4!3%a1#!EH4-)#44#4!
`-'9!(H1'-$1#!
$&*$#&'-#4!9%/!'*!'#4'!
26
explained in ‘bilag
18’)
3*11#3'-*)!*+!?!E1**/!
4%($1#4!'*!&#%39!f@E!-+!
'#4'b)#:%'-7#!^E#1*`!TB!
l"8i_Z!
!
fPW!'**!9-:9!%)'-E*/.!
1#7#14!'*!E#!$1%3#/!-)!f@5!
*&!S. "HE1-)!E%3'#&-%!
/#'#3'#/5!EH'!)*'!-)!fLe!
*&!#)'!3*)'%3'!'*!fP!*&!
fLb$&*$#&'-#4Z!
!
fLW!31-)-3%1!4%1(*)#11*4-4!
%)/!S. "HE1-)!E%3'#&-%!
/#'#3'#/Z!~9#)!(*7#/!
+&*(!fL!'*!fP5!$&*$#&'.!
1*3D#/!-)!fP!+*&!k!
(*)'94Z!
6)D)*`)!1#7#1!+*&!)*)b
/%-&.!9#&/4W!)*'!#)*H:9!
-)+*&(%'-*)!%7%-1%E1#!'*!
31%44-+.!
`-'9!*'9#&!3%a1#!
$&*$#&'-#4!)*'!-)!f@Z!!
X1**/!4%($1#4!+&*(!
3*)'%3'!%)-(%14!Lbk!
`##D4!%+'#&!3*)'%3'!
'*!3*)o&(!)*!
4$&#%/!*+!-)+#3'-*)!
'*!(*7#!'*!f@%Sf@EZ!
!
#%39!$&*$#&'.!%)/!
'9#!9-:9#4'!&-4D!1#7#1!
%44-:)#/!'*!%11!
$&*$#&'-#4!-)!'9%'!
EH4-)#44!^-)31H/-):!
t4%(/&-+'u_Z!
XQj!)*Z!L!
B\SB@SPB@B!
(Mainly changes
to pig salmonella
surveillance)
@\SB@SPBBM!
O-)*&!39%):#4Z!
!
2*(#!31%&-o3%'-*)4!
%E*H'!4$#3-%1!
41%H:9'#&!*+!3%a1#!
%)/!$-:4!+*&!'9#!
%E%a*-&4Z!
XQj!)*Z!M\L!
PkSBASPB@B!
!
B@SB?SPB@B!
Major change:!!
fPb$&*$#&'-#4!t`-'9!4-:)4!
*+!4$&#%/!*+!SZ!"HE1-)u!
-)'&*/H3#/!+*&!/%-&.!
9#&/4!`-'9!%'!1#%4'!*)#!
XcO{\B!l"8i!`-'9*H'!
'#4'b)#:%'-7#!3%17#45!%)/!
+*&!)*)b/%-&.!9#&/4!`-'9!
%'!1#%4'!*)#!E1**/!4%($1#!
{TB!l"8i!
U*!(*7#(#)'!
%11*`#/!*+!%)-(%14!
+*&!1-7#!H4#!+&*(!
l,2b$&*$#&'-#4!!
^#F3#$'!3%17#4!+*&!
+%a#)-):!-+!#-7#&!
9%4!%33#$'#/!-)!
`&-'-):!'*!#-7#_!
l,2!-)'&*/H3#/!*)!
fPb$&*$#&'-#4!`-'9!
4-:)4!*+!4$&#%/!*+!2Z!
"HE1-)Z!!
XQj!)*Z!@APL!
PPS@PSPB@B!
BTSB@SPB@@!
f#7#1!Pr!-)'&*/H3#/!%)/!
%//#/!'*!fP!'*!31%&-+.!
`9-39!+%&(4!9%/!4-:)4!*+!
4$&#%/!*+!2Z!"HE1-)Z!
2%(#!%4!%E*7#!
l,2!*)!fPr!
$&*$#&'-#4Z!
XQj!)*Z!@\L!
PPSBPSPB@P!
!
PTSBPSPB@P!
6)D)*`)!1#7#1!%//#/!
+*&!/%-&.!$&*$#&'-#4!-+!
)*'!#)*H:9!E1**/!
4%($1#4!
!
!
XQj!)*Z!MT\!
@BSBASPB@L!
@TSBASPB@L!
Major changeW!
r#:-*)%1-4%'-*)!
-)'&*/H3#/Z!
!
f#7#14!%/%$'#/W!
f@!^)*!1*):#&!f@%!%)/!
f@E_!
l)1.!(*7#(#)'4!*+!
EH11!3%17#4!+*&!
+%a#)-):!%11*`#/!
+&*(!IH'1%)/!^9-:9b
$%1#)3#!&#:-*)_!
'*!N41%)/4!^1*`b
$%1#)3#!&#:-*)_!•!
H)1#44!*`)!*&!
fP[fL!(%)/%'*&.!'*!
(%D#!%:&##(#)'!
`-'9!7#'!'*!3*)'&*1!S.!
"HE1-)!^%3'-*)!
$1%)4_Z!
!
X1**/!4%($1#4!(H4'!
E#!3*11#3'#/!-)!fP[fL!
27
fP!^)*!1*):#&!fP!%)/!
fPr_!!
fL!
U*!1*):#&!H)D)*`)!
1#7#14!
#($'.!+%&(!
$&*$#&'.Z!
!
0)-(%14!+*&!49*`4!
%)/!49%&#/!$%4'H!
(H4'!9%7#!E##)!-)!
f@!9#&/4!+*&!M!
(*)'94!$&-*&Z!
+%&(4!+&*(!3%17#4!'*!
39#3D!#d#3'!*+!$1%)!
#7#&.!L!(*)'94!H)'-1!
-)!f@Z!
!
N)'#)4-o#/!
E%3'#&-*1*:-3%1!
4%($1-):!`9#)!
E1**/!4%($1#!)*'!
)#:%'-7#!
XQj!)*Z!??k!
BPSBASPB@\!
@TSBASPB@\!
O-)*&!%/>H4'(#)'4!
!
c-(#!'*!%3'-*)!$1%)!
&#%/.!-)!)#`!fPb
+%&(4!4$#3-o#/!'*!L!
`##D4!
XQj!)*Z!LT@!
BASB\SPB@T!
@BSB\SPB@T!
(for slaughter
calves about §18,
stk. 3-7,
15/07/2015)!
O-)*&!%/>H4'(#)'4!
!
!
XQj!)*Z!@@MP!
PBS@BSPB@T
!
PkS@BSPB@T!
Major change:
r#:-*)4!39%):#/!-)!'9#!
&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)!'*!
-)31H/#!%&#%4!*+!IH'1%)/!
-)!1*`b$%1#)3#!&#:-*)!
!
G#-+#&b&%-4-):!$&*$#&'-#4!
&#hH-&#/!'*!4%($1#!*)b
+%&(!
!
C-)#4!'*!+%&(#&!-)!
9-:9b$%1#)'!
&#:-*)!-+!3%a1#!
(*7#/!-11#:%11.!+&*(!
+%&(4!-)!'9#!9-:9b
$%1#)3#!'*!'9#!
1*`b$%1#)3#!
&#:-*)!
XQj!)*Z!TLA!
B@SBkSPB@k!
!
B@SBASPB@k!
UH(E#&!*+!E1**/!
4%($1#4!%/>H4'#/!'*!?!-)!
(*4'!3%4#4Z!
c&%)4$*&'#/!3%a1#!
+&*(!)*)bf@!
$&*$#&'-#4!(H4'!E#!
$-3D#/!H$!1%4'!*)!
'9#!'&%)4$*&'%'-*)!
&*H'#!
C-)#4!%//#/!'*!
+%&(#&!-)!1*`b
$%1#)'!&#:-*)!-+!
3%a1#!(*7#/!-11#:%11.!
+&*(!+%&(4!-)!'9#!
9-:9b$%1#)3#!'*!
'9#!1*`b$%1#)3#!
&#:-*)!
XQj!)*Z!@LPk!
PMS@@SPB@A!
B@SB@SPB@?!
Major change:
r#:-*)%1-4%'-*)!4'*$$#/!
!
O*7#(#)'4!
'&-3'#/!+&*(!%11!
fPb+%&(4!!!!!!
!
U*!1*):#&!%11*`#/!
'*!(*7#!3%17#4!+*&!
+%a#)-):!-)!*'9#&!
+%&(4!+&*(!f#7#1!P!
$&*$#&'-#4!
0)-(%14!+*&!
41%H:9'#&!+&*(!)*)b
f@!$&*$#&'-#4!(H4'!
E#!$-3D#/!H$!1%4'!*)!
'9#!&*H'#!!
XQj!)*Z!@k?A!
18/12/2018!
B@SB@SPB@M!
R&*$#&'-#4!-)!fP!+*&!(*&#!
'9%)!P!.#%&4!`-'9!
$*4-'-7#!E1**/!4%($1#!
&*H)/4!3*)4-/#&#/!
t4$#3-%1 S. "HE1-)!&-4D!
`-'9!-($*4#/!7#'#&-)%&.!
3*H)4#11-):u!
!
fPb(*7#(#)'!
'&-3'-*)4!
3*)'-)H#/!
!
O*7#(#)'!E#'`##)!
*`)!$&*$#&'-#4!*&!
+*&!#F$*&'!%)/!
R&*$#&'-#4!`-'9!
t4$#3-%1 S. "HE1-)!
&-4D!`-'9!-($*4#/!
3*H)4#11-):u!(H4'!
H4#!*s3-%11.!
%$$&*7#/!S. "HE1-)!
3*)4H1'%)3.!
7#'#&-)%&-%)4!
28
f@b+%&(4!'9%'!9%7#!E##)!
-)!fP!(H4'!'#4'!3%17#4!
+&##!#7#&.!L!(*)'94!+*&!
@bP!.#%&4!!
^P!.#%&4!-+!'9#.!(*7#!
%)-(%14!*H'!+*&!1-7#!
$H&$*4#4_!
41%H:9'#&!4'-11!
%11*`#/!
XQj!)*Z!@\M\!
@LS@PSPB@M!
B@SB@SPBPB!
Major change:
011!fP!$1%3#/!H)/#&!l,2!
`-'9!&#hH-&#(#)'4!'*!
(%D#!%)!%3'-*)!$1%)!
%44-4'#/!E.!'9#!9#&/!
9#%1'9!3*)4H1'-):!
7#'#&-)%&-%)!`-'9-)!L!
`##D4!+*&!$*'#)'-%1!
39#3D-):!E.!%H'9*&-'-#4!
fPb(*7#(#)'!
'&-3'-*)4!
3*)'-)H#/!
!
O*7#(#)'!E#'`##)!
*`)!$&*$#&'-#4!%)/!
+*&!#F$*&'!%)/!
41%H:9'#&!4'-11!
%11*`#/!
,#'#&-)%&.!
%H'9*&-'-#4!-)-'-%'#/!
3*)'&*1!-)!+#`!fPb
+%&(4!
!
!
!
XQj!)*Z!@AM@!
BPS@PSPBPB!
B@SB@SPBP@!
O-)*&!%/>H4'(#)'!`-'9!
)*!#F$#3'#/!-($%3'!*)!
)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!
!
!
XQj!)*Z!@BTT!
L@SBTSPBP@!
B@SBASPBP@!
Major change:!
Number of levels
reduced to two:!
f@!%)/!fP!`-'9!l,2!*)!
%11!fPb+%&(4!
!
f@!^'#4'b)#:%'-7#!
%33*&/-):!'*!3&-'#&-%e!%11!
3%a1#!:&*H$4!*)!%11!
$&*$#&'-#4!-)!'9#!
EH4-)#44!(H4'!E#!'#4'#/!
)#:%'-7#!E#+*&#!'9#!
$&*$#&'-#4!3%)!E#!$1%3#/!
-)!f#7#1!@_e!9#-+#&!&%-4-):!
+%3-1-'-#4!(H4'!3*11#3'!?!
E1**/!4%($1#4!@bP!$#&!
.#%&!/#$#)/-):!*)!
)H(E#&!*+!9#-+#&!4*H&3#!
9#&/4Z!
!
fP!^%11!*'9#&!3%a1#!
9#&/4_Z!
U#`!fP!E%4#/!*)!
3*)'%3'4!3%)!E#!
'&-#/S+&##b'#4'#/!
`-'9!9#&/!4-]#!
/#$#)/#)'!E1**/!
4%($1#4!+&*(!
3*)'%3'!%)-(%14!Lbk!
`##D4!$*4'b3*)'%3'Z!
Increased sample
size and L2-farms
under OVS:!!
%3'-*)!$1%)!`-'9!7#'!
`-'9-)!L!`##D4!
!
fP!$&*$#&'-#4!7-4-'#/!
#7#&.!k!(*)'94!E.!
7#'#&-)%&.!%H'9*&-'-#4!
+*&!39#3D!*+!%3'-*)!
$1%)4!%)/!'#4'-):!
!
G#&/b4-]#!E%4#/!
4%($1#!4-]#!*+!E1**/!
4%($1#4!*+!3%17#4!
%)/!9#-+#&4!
(%)/%'*&.!Pb\!'-(#4!
$#&!.#%&!H)'-1!
4%'-4+%3'*&.!'*!E#!
(*7#/!'*!f@!
!
XQj!)*Z!!P\@k!
@\S@PSPBP@!
B@SB@SPBPP!
c-:9'#)#/!4$#3-%1!&-4D!
/#o)-'-*)W!R&*$#&'-#4!-)!
fP!+*&!(*&#!'9%)!@!.#%&!
`-'9!$*4-'-7#!E1**/!
4%($1#!&*H)/4!
3*)4-/#&#/!t4$#3-%1 S.
"HE1-)!&-4Du!
!
N)3&#%4-):!)H(E#&!*+!
fPb+%&(4!7-4-'#/!E.!
'9#!7#'#&-)%&.!
%H'9*&-'-#4!
XQj!)*Z!@\ML!
BkS@PSPBPP!
B@SB@SPBPL!
O%-)1.!4'&H3'H&%1!
39%):#4!'*!(%D#!'9#!
1#:-41%'-7#!*&/#&!(*&#!
&#%/%E1#Z!!
!
!
29
O-)*&!39%):#4!`-'9!1-a1#!
#F$#3'#/!#d#3'!*)!
)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4Z!
ls3-%1!,#'#&-)%&.!2H$#&7-4-*)!^l,2_!
!
c#4'-):!439#(#W!011!/%-&.!9#&/4!`#&#!'#4'#/!H4-):!EH1D!'%)D!(-1D!^XcO_!4%($1#4!+*H&!'-(#4!$#&!.#%&5!
`-'9!%)!-)/-'!lb%)'-:#)bE%4#/!QfN20!'%&:#'-):!%)'-E*/-#4!/-'#/!%:%-)4'!4#&*:&*H$b"!Salmonella!
^-)!"%)-49!3%a1#5!4#&*:&*H$b"!-4*1%'#4!%&#!(%-)1.!SZ!4#&*7%&!"HE1-)_Z!"%-&.!9#&/4!`#&#!$1%3#/!-)!f#7#1!
@!E%4#/!*)!'`*!'#4'b3&-'#&-%W!i_!'9#!%7#&%:#!%)'-E*/.!7%1H#!^3%11#/!l"8i_!(#%4H&#/!%3&*44!'9#!1%4'!+*H&!
XcO4!49*H1/!E#!E#1*`!PT!l"8i5!%)/!ii_!'9#!1%4'!XcO!4%($1#!49*H1/!)*'!9%7#!>H($#/!'*!(*&#!'9%)!PB!
l"8i!'9#!%7#&%:#!*+!'9#!$-*H4!'9&##!XcOb4%($1#4Z!"%-&.!+%&(#&4!/*!)*'!D)*`!`9#)!*&!`9-39!*+!
'9#! /%-1.S&#:H1%&1.! 3*11#3'#/! XcO! 4%($1#4! `-11! E#! H4#/! +*&! '9#! SZ! "HE1-)! QfN20! %)%1.4#4! E.! '9#!
1%E*&%'*&.!&H))-):!'9#!(-1DbhH%1-'.!3*)'&*1!439#(#!+*&!'9#!/%-&.!-)/H4'&.Z!N)!)*)b/%-&.!9#&/45!#-:9'!
E1**/!4%($1#4!%&#!'#4'#/5!%)/!-)!-)'#)4-7#!$&*/H3'-*)!+%&(45!%'!1#%4'!*)3#!$#&!.#%&Z!c9#!E1**/!4%($1#4!
%&#!'.$-3%11.!3*11#3'#/!%'!%E%a*-&4!*&!*)b+%&(!`9#)!)##/#/Z!U*)b/%-&.!+%&(4!`#&#!$1%3#/!-)!f#7#1!@!-+!
)*)#!*+!'9#!1%4'!#-:9'!E1**/!4%($1#4!`#&#!9-:9#&!'9%)!TB!l"8iZ!c9-4!3H'b*d!`%4!4#1#3'#/!'*!#)4H&#!%!
&#%4*)%E1.!9-:9!4$#3-o3-'.!-)!'9#!9#&/!31%44-o3%'-*)Z!N)!%//-'-*)!'*!'9#!4#&*1*:-3%1!'#4'-):5!/#'#3'-*)!*+!
S.!"HE1-)!E%3'#&-%!E.!E%3'#&-*1*:-3%1!3H1'H&#!H$*)!31-)-3%1!4H4$-3-*)!$1%3#/!'9#!$&*$#&'.!H)/#&!*s3-%1!
7#'#&-)%&.!4H$#&7-4-*)!^l,2_!%)/!-)!f#7#1!LZ!l'9#&!1#7#14!`#&#!-)'&*/H3#/!%)/!&#(*7#/!*7#&!'9#!.#%&4Z!
c9#!1#:-41%'-7#!*&/#&!$H'!-)!$1%3#! I%)H%&.! PBPB!39%):#/!'9#!4H&7#-11%)3#!$&*:&%((#!'*!-)31H/#!'`*!
1#7#14W!f#7#1!@!^'#4'b)#:%'-7#_!%)/!f#7#1!P!^'#4'b$*4-'-7#!%)/!$1%3#/!H)/#&!l,2_Z!N)!f#7#1!Pb+%&(45!3%17#4!
H)/#&!k! (*)'94! *1/! (H4'! E#! '#4'#/! +*H&! '-(#4!$#&! .#%&!'*! /*3H(#)'! '9%'! (%)/%'*&.!%)/! #d#3'-7#!
3*)'&*1!(#%4H!%&#!-)!$1%3#Z!l)3#!'9#!3%17#4!'#4'!)#:%'-7#5!.*H):!4'*3D!*1/#&!'9%)!k!(*)'94!*1/!(H4'!
E#!'#4'#/!'`-3#!$#&!.#%&5!H)'-1!'9#.!%14*!'#4'!)#:%'-7#5!E#+*&#!'9#!+%&(!3%)!E#!$1%3#/!-)!f#7#1!@!%:%-)!
^:-7#)!'9%'!'9#!XcO!%14*!'#4'4!4Hs3-#)'1.!1*`!%4!/#43&-E#/!%E*7#_Z
30
c%E1 # ! 2PW U#`!:&*H$!31%44-o3%'-*)4!*+!'9#!SZ!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)!E%4#/!*)!'9#!/#43&-$'-*)!*+!'9#!4%($1#4!
%)/!'#4'!H1'45!&-4D.!3*)'%3'45!%)/!*s3-%1!7#'#&-)%&.!4H$#&7-4-*)!-)!'9#!4H&7#-11%)3#!/%'%E%4#Z
"#43&-$'-*)!*+!'9#!'#4'!H1'4!
;&*H$!81%44-o3%'-*)!
c**!9-:9!%)'-E*/.!7%1H#!-)!(-1D!%)/!E1**/!
X!
"#'#3'-*)!*+!Salmonella!"HE1-)!E%3'#&-%!
X!
c&%/#!%)/!3*)'%3'!^1#7#1!@_!
"!
f#7#1!H)D)*`)5!)*!1#7#1!3%13H1%'#/!/H#!'*!B!%)-(%14!*)!'9#!$&*$#&'.!
8!
ls3-%1!7#'#&-)%&.!4H$#&7-4-*)!/H#!'*!-)+#3'-*)!`-'9!
Salmonella
!"HE1-)5!2$#3-%1!41%H:9'#&!
X!
f-+'#/!*s3-%1!7#'#&-)%&.!4H$#&7-4-*)!
X!
r-4D!*+!-)+#3'-*)!/H#!'*!3*)'%3'!`-'9!$&*$#&'.!-)!1#7#1!L!
8!
r-4D!*+!-)+#3'-*)!/H#!'*!$H&39%4#!+&*(!1#7#1!L!
X!
2%1(*)#11%!1#7#1!@!#)'#&#/!(%)H%11.!^E1**/_!
0!
2%1(*)#11%!1#7#1!@!#)'#&#/!(%)H%11.!^(-1D_!
0!
2%1(*)#11%!1#7#1!P!#)'#&#/!(%)H%11.!
X!
2%1(*)#11%!1#7#1!L!#)'#&#/!(%)H%11.!
X!
R&*E%E1.!
Salmonella
!"HE1-)!+&##5!E%4#/!*)!E1**/!4%($1#4!
0!
R&*E%E1.!
Salmonella
!"HE1-)!+&##5!E%4#/!*)!EH1D!'%)D!(-1D!4%($1#4!
0!
R&*E%E1.!-)+#3'-*H45!E%4#/!*)!E1**/!4%($1#4!
X!
R&*E%E1.!-)+#3'-*H45!E%4#/!*)!$H&39%4#!
X!
R&*E%E1.!-)+#3'-*H45!E%4#/!*)!EH1D!'%)D!(-1D!
X!
N)+#3'#/!`-'9!Salmonella!"HE1-)!^`-'9*H'!*s3-%1!7#'#&-)%&.!4H$#&7-4-*)_Z!2$#3-%1!41%H:9'#&!
X!
6)/#'#&(-)#/!H)'-1!o)%1!31%&-o3%'-*)!*+!’E’!4%($1#!^EH1D!'%)D!(-1D_!
8!
6)/#'#&(-)#/!E#3%H4#!-'!9%4!E##)!'**!1*):!4-)3#!'9#!1%4'!4%($1#!
8!
6)/#'#&(-)#/!/H#!'*!$H&39%4#5!#)'&.!E#+*&#!1%4'!4%($1#!
0!
6)/#'#&(-)#/!/H#!'*!1-+'#/!1#7#1!L!
X!
6)/#'#&(-)#/!/H#!'*!1-+'#/!1#7#1!L5!*s3-%1!7#'#&-)%&.!4H$#&7-4-*)!
X!
6)/#'#&(-)#/5!%`%-'-):!H1'4!*+!)#`!EH1D!'%)D!(-1D!4%($1#!
8!
6)D)*`)!b!"H#!'*!(-44-):!E1**/!4%($1#4!
"!
31
c%E1#!2LW 2H((%&.!*+!'9#!:&%$9b1#7#1!(#'&-34!*+!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'4!%3&*44!.#%&4!4'&%'-o#/!E.W!(A)!U*)b-)+#3'#/Z!(B)!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4Z!(C)!E*'9!-)+#3'#/!%)/!)*)b
-)+#3'#/!S.!"HE1-)!+%&(4Z!X#3%H4#!'9#!)#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!`#&#!3%13H1%'#/!*)!(*)'91.!)#'`*&D45!'9#!7%1H#4!%&#!$#)'#/!%4!$#&b.#%&!(#/-%)4Z!!
0Z!U*)b-)+#3'#/!
PB@B!
PB@@!
PB@P!
PB@L!
PB@\!
PB@T!
PB@k!
PB@A!
PB@?!
PB@M!
PBPB!
UH(E#&!*+!)*/#4
\\MT!
\AAM!
\AAP!
\\?\!
\kkP!
\TBk!
\@\P!
\BTB!
LMTM!
LAkk!
LAL\!
"#:&##
LZPPL!
LZLTB!
LZLBB!
LZLBM!
LZL\k!
LZLL\!
LZL@k!
LZL?M!
LZ\\@!
LZ\?T!
LZT\\!
N)b/#:&##
@Zk@@!
@ZkAT!
@ZkTB!
@ZkTT!
@ZkAL!
@ZkkA!
@ZkT?!
@ZkMT!
@ZAPB!
@ZA\P!
@ZAAP!
lH'b/#:&##
@Zk@@!
@ZkAT!
@ZkTB!
@ZkTT!
@ZkAL!
@ZkkA!
@ZkT?!
@ZkMT!
@ZAPB!
@ZA\P!
@ZAAP!
044*&'%'-7-'.
bBZBML!
bBZ@B?!
bBZBMM!
bBZ@Bk!
bBZBMA!
bBZB?\!
bBZBAL!
bBZBA@!
bBZB?A!
bBZBM\!
bBZB?\!
07#&%:#!R%'9!f#):'9!
kZLBT!
kZBk@!
kZPPL!
TZkAP!
TZ?MB!
kZTTT!
AZLP@!
AZ@ML!
kZMTM!
kZ\@B!
kZ\\k!
X#'`##))#44
P@M@ZB!
PA?LZB!
Pk@AZB!
PBAkZB!
PLkMZB!
P\\@ZB!
PkTTZB!
PkPLZB!
PTkPZB!
PA@AZB!
P?ALZB!
81*4#)#44
BZLL\!
BZL@ML!
BZL\T@!
BZL\BP!
BZLT@\!
BZLLM?!
BZLkP?!
BZLTTM!
BZL\TT!
BZLP?M!
BZLPk@!
81*4#)#44!^N)_
BZ\BM!
BZL?@A!
BZ\BBM!
BZLMk@!
BZ\BB?!
BZL?MT!
BZLM\B!
BZL?BP!
BZLABL!
BZLkPB!
BZLT@@!
81*4#)#44!^lH'_
BZ\BL!
BZLkT@!
BZL?\T!
BZL?AP!
BZL?@B!
BZLATT!
BZLMLM!
BZLA?\!
BZLAB?!
BZLTMT!
BZLTPB!
81H4'#&-):ˆ3*#d!
BZ@\@!
BZ@\k@!
BZ@TL\!
BZ@kkB!
BZ@A@B!
BZ@T\T!
BZ@\kB!
BZ@\PM!
BZ@\MT!
BZ@\TM!
BZ@T@\!
~#%D!3*($*)#)'!
^U*Z!)*/#4_!
@BLM!
@BkB!
@@LB!
@@B@!
@@@?!
@@B\!
@B\?!
@BP@!
M\T!
?Tk!
?k@!
2'&*):!3*($*)#)'!
^U*Z!)*/#4_
@T@?!
@T@B!
@\MA!
@\LA!
@\P?!
@Lk?!
@PLA!
@@k?!
@@PP!
@B?B!
@B@k!
"#)4-'.!
BZBBBLTk?!
BZBBBLTTM!
BZBBBL\kk!
BZBBBLkL\!
BZBBBLTkM!
BZBBBLkA\!
BZBBBLMMA!
BZBBB\@PT!
BZBBB\LBA!
BZBBB\kk@!
BZBBB\?@\!
O*/H1%&-'.!
BZA?\B!
BZAk\@!
BZAA\P!
BZAATk!
BZAALP!
BZAAAL!
BZA?PT!
BZAAB@!
BZAAkP!
BZAk@B!
BZAT@M!
XZ!N)+#3'#/!!
PB@B!
PB@@!
PB@P!
PB@L!
PB@\!
PB@T!
PB@k!
PB@A!
PB@?!
PB@M!
PBPB!
UH(E#&!*+!)*/#4
L@\!
L@k!
P?A!
PkB!
PPL!
@?\!
PBT!
@?@!
@Tk!
@Lk!
AM!
"#:&##
PZ?\\!
LZBBL!
LZ@M?!
LZBkA!
LZ\@M!
LZkA@!
LZTMP!
LZkTk!
LZTTT!
LZTPP!
PZM@k!
N)b/#:&##
@Z\PP!
@ZTB@!
@ZTMM!
@ZTLL!
@ZABM!
@Z?LT!
@ZAMk!
@Z?P?!
@ZAAA!
@ZAk@!
@Z\T?!
lH'b/#:&##
@Z\PP!
@ZTB@!
@ZTMM!
@ZTLL!
@ZABM!
@Z?LT!
@ZAMk!
@Z?P?!
@ZAAA!
@ZAk@!
@Z\T?!
044*&'%'-7-'.
bBZBPP!
bBZBkP!
bBZBAk!
bBZBM@!
bBZ@\A!
bBZPPP!
bBZPPk!
bBZPPM!
bBZPkk!
bBZPP?!
bBZBTP!
07#&%:#!R%'9!f#):'9!
PZTPB!
PZ?PP!
LZAk\!
LZ?kL!
LZ?\A!
LZL@M!
LZ\\k!
LZLBk!
PZMBL!
PZA@L!
PZLTM!
X#'`##))#44!
AZAB@!
@@ZBTM!
\?Z?AA!
\LZM@L!
AkZP?!
A?ZLP!
@BBZ@L!
ALZML!
k\ZB@!
T@Z@M@!
AZMPk!
81*4#)#44!!
BZTTPA!
BZTPAA!
BZ\ALk!
BZT@AA!
BZ\\?T!
BZLL\M!
BZLLPP!
BZL\LA!
BZLL@P!
BZLTTT!
BZTTBA!
81*4#)#44!^N)_!
BZTk?@!
BZTL\k!
BZ\ALk!
BZTPLP!
BZ\\MT!
BZLL\M!
BZLLL\!
BZL\LA!
BZLPM@!
BZLTTT!
BZTT?M!
81*4#)#44!^lH'_!
BZTk??!
BZTPAA!
BZ\ALk!
BZTPP?!
BZ\\?M!
BZLL\M!
BZLLL\!
BZL\LA!
BZLPM@!
BZLTTT!
BZTT\@!
81H4'#&-):ˆ3*#d
BZPk?P!
BZL@Pk!
BZPM@B!
BZLBkM!
BZLBk?!
BZLP?B!
BZLkTL!
BZPATk!
BZPM@M!
BZPTTB!
BZLPMT!
32
~#%D!3*($*)#)'!!
^U*Z!)*/#4_!
@@?!
@@B!
M@!
?M!
TM!
LM!
\A!
LT!
LT!
L?!
L@!
2'&*):!3*($*)#)'!!
^U*Z!)*/#4_!
@PA!
@@@!
ML!
?M!
TM!
\B!
\?!
LA!
Lk!
L?!
L@!
"#)4-'.
BZBB\AB@!
BZBB\?@M!
BZBBTTT?!
BZBBTMTA!
BZBB?@kT!
BZB@B@@?!
BZBBM@?T!
BZBBMTkP!
BZB@@ALB!
BZB@PT?!
BZB@?MA!
O*/H1%&-'.
BZ?AT\!
BZ?k??!
BZ?Lk\!
BZ?\LA!
BZAMT@!
BZATM\!
BZAk@T!
BZAL\B!
BZAL@k!
BZALLL!
BZ?TBB!
8Z!X*'9!
PB@B!
PB@@!
PB@P!
PB@L!
PB@\!
PB@T!
PB@k!
PB@A!
PB@?!
PB@M!
PBPB!
UH(E#&!*+!)*/#4!
TPkM!
TTLP!
T\AM!
T@MP!
TP@B!
TB@k!
\k\?!
\T\k!
\L?T!
\@A?!
\B\T!
"#:&##!
LZ\BT!
LZTAL!
LZkLP!
LZTM?!
LZkTB!
LZkB\!
LZk@k!
LZA@?!
LZAL@!
LZ?TT!
LZ?\T!
N)b/#:&##!
@ZABL!
@ZA?A!
@Z?@k!
@ZAMM!
@Z?PT!
@Z?BP!
@Z?B?!
@Z?TM!
@Z?kT!
@ZMP?!
@ZMPP!
lH'b/#:&##!
@ZABL!
@ZA?A!
@Z?@k!
@ZAMM!
@Z?PT!
@Z?BP!
@Z?B?!
@Z?TM!
@Z?kT!
@ZMP?!
@ZMPP!
044*&'%'-7-'.!
bBZB?M!
bBZ@B?!
bBZ@BM!
bBZ@@A!
bBZ@P@!
bBZ@@L!
bBZ@B?!
bBZ@@@!
bBZ@@M!
bBZ@PB!
bBZ@BL!
07#&%:#!R%'9!f#):'9!
kZM\\!
kZBBP!
TZ?Ak!
TZk?@!
TZk\A!
kZBPk!
kZ\@?!
kZ\P\!
kZPBA!
TZ?BB!
kZBBA!
X#'`##))#44!
LMBBZB!
\\LTZB!
\\\TZB!
LMPMZB!
L?M\ZB!
LAk@ZB!
L?kMZB!
\BB?ZB!
LAP?ZB!
LT\?ZB!
LkPPZB!
81*4#)#44!!
BZP?Pk!
BZPAkk!
BZPATM!
BZP?TM!
BZPM@k!
BZPMMk!
BZLBLP!
BZPMPA!
BZP?M@!
BZPAPL!
BZP?P\!
81*4#)#44!^N)_!
BZLkBP!
BZLP?@!
BZLPB\!
BZLPMB!
BZLPMk!
BZLL\T!
BZLLkk!
BZLPBM!
BZL@TA!
BZPMAM!
BZLB\B!
81*4#)#44!^lH'_!
BZLTBA!
BZLPBk!
BZL@M@!
BZL@M@!
BZL@A\!
BZLP@T!
BZLP?@!
BZL@A\!
BZL@TL!
BZPMM?!
BZLB?T!
81H4'#&-):ˆ3*#d!
BZ@LLL!
BZ@\kT!
BZ@\?P!
BZ@TPP!
BZ@kPT!
BZ@TTk!
BZ@\LM!
BZ@LLk!
BZ@LLA!
BZ@LA@!
BZ@\\A!
~#%D!3*($*)#)'!!
^U*Z!)*/#4_!
@B\k!
@BT?!
@BPM!
@BPP!
@BLk!
@BLT!
M?@!
MP?!
?AA!
?BP!
?BB!
2'&*):!3*($*)#)'!!
^U*Z!)*/#4_!
@kP\!
@Tk?!
@\\T!
@LA@!
@L\M!
@LPk!
@PPM!
@@k@!
@Bk\!
@BBL!
M\T!
"#)4-'.!
BZBBBLP\T!
BZBBBLPTP!
BZBBBLLT\!
BZBBBL\AP!
BZBBBL\M\!
BZBBBLkBB!
BZBBBL?kP!
BZBBB\B\@!
BZBBB\P\M!
BZBBB\T?\!
BZBBB\A?\!
O*/H1%&-'.!
BZAT?B!
BZALTP!
BZAL@k!
BZALk?!
BZALLM!
BZALM@!
BZAL?P!
BZA@MB!
BZALBB!
BZA@PL!
BZA@PB!
33
c%E1 # ! 2\W!r#4H1'4!*+!'9#!(H1'-$1#!1*:-4'-3!&#:,-*)!(*/#14!E%4#/!*)!%!/%'%!*+!$-*H4!(*)'9Z!044*3-%'-*)!E#'`##)!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)4!%)/!1*3%1!^&%/-H4!*+!T!
D(_!%)/!'&%/#! '&%)4(-44-*)4!-)! '9#!)#F'! (*)'95!'`*5! '9&##5!+*H&5! o7#5! %)/!4-F! (*)'945!%/>H4'#/! +*&!+%&(!4-]#5!'&%/#! (*)'95!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!%)/! '*'%1!
)#-:9E*&9**/!^-)!%!&%/-H4!*+!T!D(!%&*H)/!'9#!-)+#3'#/!+%&(_Z!UZXZ!1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)!-)31H/#!%11!3%a1#!+%&(4!-Z#Z!%14*!'9*4#!$&#(-4#4!'9%'!`#&#!)*'!'&%/#/!`-'9!
-)+#3'#/!%)/S*&!)*)b-)+#3'#/!3%a1#!+%&(4Z!!
!
O*/#1!@!
O*/#1!P!
O*/#1!L!
O*/#1!\!
O*/#1!T!
O*/#1!k!
^N)'#&3#$'_!
b\ZP\!VVV!
bLZT?!VVV!
bLZ@\!VVV!
bPZ?\!VVV!
bPZk@!VVV!
bPZ\L!VVV!
!
^BZ@L_!!!!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!
^BZBk_!!!!
f*3%1!N)+#3'-*)!
BZ@P!V!!!
BZBM!V!!!
BZB?!V!!!
BZBA!V!!!
BZBA!V!
BZBk!V!!!
!
^BZBk_!!!!
^BZB\_!!!!
^BZB\_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBL_!
^BZBL_!!!!
c&%/#!N)+#3'-*)!
BZTA!VVV!
BZ\A!VVV!
BZ\B!VVV!
BZLA!VVV!
BZLT!VVV!
BZL\!VVV!
!
^BZBk_!!!!
^BZB\_!!!!
^BZB\_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBL_!
^BZBL_!!!!
"%-&.!
bBZ@k!!!!!
bBZB?!!!!!
bBZ@P!!!!!
bBZ@P!!!!!
bBZ@P!
bBZ@P!V!!!
!
^BZ@L_!!!!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!
^BZBk_!!!!
G#-+#&!
bBZL@!V!!!
bBZLP!VV!!
bBZL\!VVV!
bBZLk!VVV!
bBZLT!VVV!
bBZLT!VVV!
!
^BZ@\_!!!!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBA_!
^BZBk_!!!!
!!2(%11!E##+!
BZP@!!!!!
BZBT!!!!!
bBZBk!!!!!
bBZ@@!!!!!
bBZ@@!
bBZ@@!!!!!
!
^BZ@A_!!!!
^BZ@L_!!!!
^BZ@@_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!
^BZB?_!!!!
!!!l'9#&!4(%11!
BZ?B!VVV!
BZTT!VVV!
BZLP!VV!!
BZPA!VV!!
BZP@!V!
BZ@M!V!!!
!
^BZ@k_!!!!
^BZ@P_!!!!
^BZ@@_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZBM_!
^BZB?_!!!!
34
!
l'9#&!1%&:#!
BZP?!!!!!
BZ@A!!!!!
BZB?!!!!!
BZB\!!!!!
BZBP!
BZB@!!!!!
!!
^BZ@\_!!!!
^BZ@@_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!
^BZBA_!!!!
6)D)*`)1!
BZkP!VVV!
BZTk!VVV!
BZ\M!VVV!
BZ\A!VVV!
BZ\k!VVV!
BZ\T!VVV!
!
^BZ@\_!!!!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!
^BZBk_!!!!
G#&/!4-]#!
BZ@M!VVV!
BZP@!VVV!
BZPP!VVV!
BZPL!VVV!
BZP\!VVV!
BZP\!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!
^BZB@_!!!!
c&%/#!O*)'9!
BZBA!VVV!
BZ@P!VVV!
BZ@@!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZBA!VVV!
BZBT!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!
^BZB@_!!!!
c*'%1!)#-:9E*&9**/!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!
^BZB@_!!!!
U!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
0N8!
PLBT@ZBk!!!!!
LA\BPZ\M!!!!!
\MP\\ZBA!!!!!
TM\MLZAL!!!!!
k?TPPZA@!
AkTkTZMk!!!!!
XN8!
PL@k?Z?A!!!!!
LATPBZL@!!!!!
\MLk@Z??!!!!!
TMk@@ZTT!!!!!
k?k\BZTP!
Akk?LZA?!!!!!
R4#H/*!r2!
BZBP!!!!!
BZBP!!!!!
BZBP!!!!!
BZBP!!!!!
BZBP!
BZBL!!!!!
!!!!+11!=.62#6%.%3!0&':#=2.&3!9&'!7'96@='62'&':!96:!3=91':!<>!(!3296:9&:!:'?#92#.6A!V#$6#E=96='!6#?'9%)!!nnn!0!o!UAUU(]!!nn!0!o!UAU(]!!n!0!o!UAUXA!
1!L6M6.56!p!K&.:%=2#.6!=92'$.&#'3!9&'!7#33#6$!8.&!09&2#=%19&!7.6243A
35
c%E1 # !2TW!r#4H1'4!*+!'9#!(H1'-$1#!1*:-4'-3!&#:,-*)!(*/#14!E%4#/!*)!%!/%'%!*+!$-*H4!P!(*)'94Z!044*3-%'-*)!E#'`##)!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)4!%)/!1*3%1!^&%/-H4!*+!
T!D(_!%)/!'&%/#!'&%)4(-44-*)4!-)!'9#! )#F'! (*)'95!'`*5!'9&##5!+*H&5!o7#5!%)/!4-F!(*)'945!%/>H4'#/!+*&!+%&(!4-]#5!'&%/#!(*)'95!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!%)/!'*'%1!
)#-:9E*&9**/!^-)!%!&%/-H4!*+!T!D(!%&*H)/!'9#!-)+#3'#/!+%&(_Z!UZXZ!1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)!-)31H/#!%11!3%a1#!+%&(4!-Z#Z!%14*!'9*4#!$&#(-4#4!'9%'!`#&#!)*'!'&%/#/!`-'9!
-)+#3'#/!%)/S*&!)*)b-)+#3'#/!3%a1#!+%&(4Z!!
!
O*/#1!@!
O*/#1!P!
O*/#1!L!
O*/#1!\!
!!O*/#1!T!
!!O*/#1!k!
^N)'#&3#$'_!
bLZTM!VVV!
b\ZPT!VVV!
bLZ@\!VVV!
bPZ?T!VVV!
bPZkP!VVV!
bPZ\\!VVV!
!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZ@L_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
f*3%1!N)+#3'-*)!
BZB?!!!!!
BZ@B!!!!!
BZBA!V!!!
BZBA!V!!!
BZBk!V!!!
BZBk!V!!!
!
^BZB\_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
^BZB\_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
c&%/#!N)+#3'-*)!
BZ\?!VVV!
BZT?!VVV!
BZ\L!VVV!
BZ\B!VVV!
BZLM!VVV!
BZLA!VVV!
!
^BZB\_!!!!
^BZBT_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
"%-&.!
bBZ@@!!!!!
bBZ@M!!!!!
bBZ@T!!!!!
bBZ@T!V!!!
bBZ@T!V!!!
bBZ@T!V!!!
!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZ@L_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
G#-+#&!
bBZLL!VV!!
bBZLP!V!!!
bBZLk!VVV!
bBZLA!VVV!
bBZLA!VVV!
bBZLk!VVV!
!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZ@\_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
2(%11!E##+!
BZBT!!!!!
BZPB!!!!!
bBZBA!!!!!
bBZ@P!!!!!
bBZ@@!!!!!
bBZ@@!!!!!
!
^BZ@L_!!!!
^BZ@A_!!!!
^BZ@@_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
!!!l'9#&!4(%11!
BZT\!VVV!
BZAM!VVV!
BZLP!VV!!
BZPk!VV!!
BZP@!V!!!
BZ@?!V!!!
!
^BZ@P_!!!!
^BZ@k_!!!!
^BZ@@_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
36
l'9#&!1%&:#!
BZ@k!!!!!
BZPk!!!!!
BZBA!!!!!
BZBL!!!!!
BZB@!!!!!
bBZBB!!!!!
!
^BZ@@_!!!!
^BZ@\_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
6)D)*`)1!
BZTk!VVV!
BZk@!VVV!
BZ\M!VVV!
BZ\k!VVV!
BZ\T!VVV!
BZ\\!VVV!
!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZ@\_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
G#&/!4-]#!
BZPB!VVV!
BZ@?!VVV!
BZPP!VVV!
BZPP!VVV!
BZPL!VVV!
BZP\!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
c&%/#!O*)'9!
BZ@P!VVV!
BZB?!VVV!
BZ@@!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZBA!VVV!
BZBT!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
c*'%1!)#-:9E*&9**/!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
U!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
0N8!
LALkBZ?k!!!!!
PLBPPZPM!!!!!
\M@?PZTT!!!!!
TM\LPZPT!!!!!
k?\\\Z@\!!!!!
Ak\A?ZT\!!!!!
XN8!
LA\A?Zk?!!!!!
PL@\BZ@B!!!!!
\MLBBZLA!!!!!
TMTTBZBk!!!!!
k?Tk@ZMk!!!!!
AkTMkZLk!!!!!
R4#H/*!r2!
BZBP!!!!!
BZBP!!!!!
BZBP!!!!!
BZBL!!!!!
BZBL!!!!!
BZBL!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!+11!=.62#6%.%3!0&':#=2.&3!9&'!7'96@='62'&':!96:!3=91':!<>!(!3296:9&:!:'?#92#.6A!V#$6#E=96='!6#?'9%)!!nnn!0!o!UAUU(]!!nn!0!o!UAU(]!!n!0!o!UAUXA!
1!L6M6.56!p!K&.:%=2#.6!=92'$.&#'3!9&'!7#33#6$!8.&!09&2#=%19&!7.6243A!
37
c%E1 # !2kW!r#4H1'4!*+!'9#!(H1'-$1#!1*:-4'-3!&#:,-*)!(*/#14!E%4#/!*)!%!/%'%!*+!$-*H4!L!(*)'94Z!044*3-%'-*)!E#'`##)!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)4!%)/!1*3%1!^&%/-H4!*+!
T!D(_!%)/!'&%/#!'&%)4(-44-*)4!-)!'9#!)#F'!(*)'95!'`*5!'9&##5!+*H&5!o7#5!%)/!4-F!(*)'945!%/>H4'#/!+*&!+%&(!4-]#5!'&%/#!(*)'95!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!%)/!'*'%1!
)#-:9E*&9**/!^-)!%!&%/-H4!*+!T!D(!%&*H)/!'9#!-)+#3'#/!+%&(_Z!UZXZ!1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)!-)31H/#!%11!3%a1#!+%&(4!-Z#Z!%14*!'9*4#!$&#(-4#4!'9%'!`#&#!)*'!'&%/#/!`-'9!
-)+#3'#/!%)/S*&!)*)b-)+#3'#/!3%a1#!+%&(4Z!!
!
O*/#1!@!
!!!!!!!!!O*/#1!P!
O*/#1!L!
O*/#1!\!
O*/#1!T!
O*/#1!k!
^N)'#&3#$'_!
b\ZPA!VVV!
bLZkB!VVV!
bLZ@k!VVV!
bPZ?k!VVV!
bPZk\!VVV!
bPZ\k!VVV!
!
^BZ@L_!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!
!
^BZBA_!
^BZBk_!!!!
^BZBk_!
f*3%1!N)+#3'-*)!
BZ@@!
BZB?!!!!
!
BZBA!V!!!
BZB?!V!
BZB?!VV!!
BZB?!VV!
!
^BZBk_!
^BZB\_!!!!
^BZB\_!!!
!
^BZBL_!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBL_!
c&%/#!N)+#3'-*)!
BZk@!VVV!
BZT\!VVV!
BZ\M!VVV!
BZ\T!VVV!
BZ\L!VVV!
BZ\P!VVV!
!
^BZBT_!
^BZB\_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!
!
^BZBL_!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZBP_!
2(%11!E##+!
BZPB!
BZBT!!!!
!
b
BZBA!!!!
!
bBZ@P!
bBZ@@!!!!!
bBZ@P!
!
^BZ@A_!
^BZ@L_!!!!
^BZ@@_!!!
!
^BZBM_!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZB?_!
"%-&.!
bBZPP!
bBZ@\!!!!!
bBZ@?!V!!!
bBZ@?!V!
bBZ@?!VV!!
bBZ@?!VV!
!
^BZ@L_!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!
!
^BZBA_!
^BZBk_!!!!
^BZBk_!
G#-+#&!
bBZL\!V!
bBZLT!VVV!
bBZLA!VVV!
bBZL?!VVV!
bBZL?!VVV!
bBZL?!VVV!
!
^BZ@\_!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!
!
^BZBA_!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!
l'9#&!1%&:#!
BZP\!
BZ@\!!!!!
BZBT!!!!
!
BZBP!
bBZBB!!!!!
bBZB@!
!
^BZ@\_!
^BZ@@_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!
!
^BZB?_!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBA_!
38
l'9#&!4(%11!
BZA?!VVV!
BZTL!VVV!
BZL@!VV!!
BZPk!VV!
BZPB!V!!!
BZ@?!V!
!
^BZ@k_!
^BZ@P_!!!!
^BZ@@_!!!
!
^BZ@B_!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!
6)D)*`)@!
BZkB!VVV!
BZTT!VVV!
BZ\?!VVV!
BZ\T!VVV!
BZ\\!VVV!
BZ\L!VVV!
!
^BZ@\_!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!
!
^BZB?_!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!
G#&/!4-]#!
BZ@?!VVV!
BZ@M!VVV!
BZP@!VVV!
BZPP!VVV!
BZPL!VVV!
BZPL!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!
!
^BZB@_!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!
c&%/#!O*)'9!
BZB?!VVV!
BZ@P!VVV!
BZ@@!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZBA!VVV!
BZBT!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!
!
^BZB@_!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!
c*'%1!)#-:9E*&9**/!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZBM!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZBM!VVV!
BZBM!VVV!
BZ@B!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!
!
^BZB@_!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!
U!
@LTkkA!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!
!
@LTkkA!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!
!
@LTkkA!
0N8!
PPMM\Z@M!
LAPMAZ\?!!!!!
\M@BAZ\B!!!!
!
TML\?Z\T!
k?LTBZPM!!!!!
AkLA\Z?@!
XN8!
PL@@PZB@!
LA\@TZLB!!!!!
\MPPTZPP!!!!
!
TM\kkZPA!
k?\k?Z@@!!!!!
Ak\MPZkL!
R4#H/*!r2!
BZBP!
BZBP!!!!!
BZBL!!!!
!
BZBL!
BZBL!!!!!
BZBL!
+11!=.62#6%.%3!0&':#=2.&3!9&'!7'96@='62'&':!96:!3=91':!<>!(!3296:9&:!:'?#92#.6A!V#$6#E=96='!6#?'9%)!!nnn!0!o!UAUU(]!!nn!0!o!UAU(]!!n!0!o!UAUXA!
1!L6M6.56!p!K&.:%=2#.6!=92'$.&#'3!9&'!7#33#6$!8.&!09&2#=%19&!7.6243A!
!
!
39
c%E1 # !2AW!r#4H1'4!*+!'9#!(H1'-$1#!1*:-4'-3!&#:,-*)!(*/#14!E%4#/!*)!%!/%'%!*+!$-*H4!\!(*)'94Z!044*3-%'-*)!E#'`##)!S.!"HE1-)!-)+#3'-*)4!%)/!1*3%1!^&%/-H4!*+!
T!D(_!%)/!'&%/#!'&%)4(-44-*)4!-)!'9#!)#F'!(*)'95!'`*5!'9&##5!+*H&5!o7#5!%)/!4-F!(*)'945!%/>H4'#/!+*&!+%&(!4-]#5!'&%/#!(*)'95!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!%)/!'*'%1!
)#-:9E*&9**/!^-)!%!&%/-H4!*+!T!D(!%&*H)/!'9#!-)+#3'#/!+%&(_Z!UZXZ!1*3%1!'&%)4(-44-*)!-)31H/#!%11!3%a1#!+%&(4!-Z#Z!%14*!'9*4#!$&#(-4#4!'9%'!`#&#!)*'!'&%/#/!`-'9!
-)+#3'#/!%)/S*&!)*)b-)+#3'#/!3%a1#!+%&(4Z!!
!
O*/#1!@!
O*/#1!P!
O*/#1!L!
O*/#1!\!
O*/#1!T!
O*/#1!k!
^N)'#&3#$'_!
b\ZP?!VVV!
bLZkL!VVV!
bLZ@?!VVV!
bPZ?M!VVV!
bPZkA!VVV!
bPZ\M!VVV!
!
^BZ@L_!!!!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
f*3%1!N)+#3'-*)!
BZ@B!!!!!
BZBM!V!!!
BZ@B!VV!!
BZ@B!VV!!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZBM!VVV!
!
^BZBk_!!!!
^BZB\_!!!!
^BZB\_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
c&%/#!N)+#3'-*)!
BZkT!VVV!
BZTk!VVV!
BZT@!VVV!
BZ\?!VVV!
BZ\A!VVV!
BZ\T!VVV!
!
^BZBT_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBL_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
"%-&.!
bBZPT!!!!!
bBZ@A!!!!!
bBZPB!V!!!
bBZPB!VV!!
bBZPB!VV!!
bBZPB!VVV!
!
^BZ@L_!!!!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
G#-+#&!
bBZLT!V!!!
bBZLk!VVV!
bBZL?!VVV!
bBZ\B!VVV!
bBZLM!VVV!
bBZLM!VVV!
!
^BZ@\_!!!!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
!!!2(%11!E##+!
!!!BZPB!
!!!BZBT!!!!!
!!!bBZBA!!!!
!!!bBZ@P!!!!!
!!!bBZ@@!!!!!
!!!bBZ@P!!!!!
!
^BZ@A_!!!!
^BZ@L_!!!!
^BZ@@_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
l'9#&!4(%11!
BZA?!VVV!
BZTL!VVV!
BZL@!VV!!
BZPT!VV!!
BZ@M!V!!!
BZ@A!V!!!
!
^BZ@k_!!!!
^BZ@P_!!!!
^BZ@@_!!!!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
40
l'9#&!1%&:#!
BZPL!!!!!
BZ@L!!!!!
BZB\!!!!!
BZB@!!!!!
bBZBP!!!!!
bBZBP!!!!!
!
^BZ@\_!!!!
^BZ@@_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
6)D)*`)1!
BZTM!VVV!
BZT\!VVV!
BZ\A!VVV!
BZ\\!VVV!
BZ\\!VVV!
BZ\P!VVV!
!
^BZ@\_!!!!
^BZ@B_!!!!
^BZBM_!!!!
^BZB?_!!!!
^BZBA_!!!!
^BZBk_!!!!
G#&/!4-]#!
BZ@A!VVV!
BZ@M!VVV!
BZP@!VVV!
BZPP!VVV!
BZPP!VVV!
BZPL!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
c&%/#!O*)'9!
BZB?!VVV!
BZ@P!VVV!
BZ@@!VVV!
BZ@@!VVV!
BZBA!VVV!
BZBT!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
c*'%1!)#-:9E*&9**/!
BZ@B!VVV!
BZBM!VVV!
BZBM!VVV!
BZBM!VVV!
BZBM!VVV!
BZBM!VVV!
!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZBP_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
^BZB@_!!!!
U!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
@LTkkA!!!!!!!!
0N8!
PPMkBZMA!!!!!
LAPT?ZL\!!!!!
\MBk@ZBP!!!!!
TMPAAZP@!!!!!
k?PkTZAB!!!!!
AkPMPZA?!!!!!
XN8!
PLBA?ZAM!!!!!
LALAkZ@T!!!!!
\M@A?Z?L!!!!!
TMLMTZBL!!!!!
k?L?LZTP!!!!!
Ak\@BZTM!!!!!
R4#H/*!r2!
BZBP!!!!!
BZBL!!!!!
BZBL!!!!!
BZBL!!!!!
BZBL!!!!!
BZBL!!!!!
+11!=.62#6%.%3!0&':#=2.&3!9&'!7'96@='62'&':!96:!3=91':!<>!(!3296:9&:!:'?#92#.6A!V#$6#E=96='!6#?'9%)!!nnn!0!o!UAUU(]!!nn!0!o!UAU(]!!n!0!o!UAUXA!
1!L6M6.56!p!K&.:%=2#.6!=92'$.&#'3!9&'!7#33#6$!8.&!09&2#=%19&!7.6243A!
41
C-:H&#!2@W!O%$!*+!S.!"HE1-)!9-:9!%)/!1*`!$%1#)3#!%&#%4!-)!"#)(%&DZ!X#'`##)!E*'9!&#:-*)4!^9-:9!1
%)/!1*`_5!(*7#(#)'!'&-3'-*)4!`#&#!-($1#(#)'#/!^&#+#&&#/!'*!%4!&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)_Z!c9#!(%$!49*`4!'9#!2
1%4'!4'%'H4!*+!'9#!&#:-*)%1-4%'-*)Z!!3
4
5
Areas with high prevalence
Areas with low prevalence
42
C-:H&#!2PW!89%):#4!*+!'9#!$&*/H3'-*)!4.4'#(!+*&!'9&##!&%)/*(1.!4#1#3'#/!9*1/-):4!%33*&/-):!'*!*s3-%1!
*&/4!+&*(!'9#!"%)-49!9*1/-):!&#:-4'&.Z C*&!#F%($1#5!9*1/-):!P!39%):#/!-'4!$&*/H3'-*)!'.$#!+&*(!%!
/%-&.!$&*/H3#&!'*!%!41%H:9'#&9*H4#!%)/!'9#)!'*!%!(#/-3%1!+%3-1-'.5!%11!`-'9-)!*)#!.#%&Z!
!
Processing facilities
Tra de comp any
Hobby farm
Medical facilities
Meat, in general
Meat, Organic
Meat, young animals
Cooling facilities
Milk production
Milk, organic
Milk, young animals
Slautherhouse
20202010 2015 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020
Yea r
Proportion of holding types
Farm 1 Farm 2 Farm 3
Processing facilities
Tra de com pa ny
Hobby farm
Medical facilities
Meat, in general
Meat, Organic
Meat, young animals
Cooling facilities
Milk production
Milk, organic
Milk, young animals
Slautherhouse
20202010 2015 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020
Yea r
Proportion of holding types
Farm 1 Farm 2 Farm 3
Holding 1Holding 2Holding 3
43
C-:H&#!2LW!R&*$*&'-*)!*+!(*7#(#)'4!E#'`##)!/-d#&#)'!&#:-*)4!%)/!$&*7-)3#4!%)/!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!1
*7#&!%!@Bb.#%&!$#&-*/!-)!"#)(%&DZ!^0_!O*7#(#)'4!E#'`##)!/-d#&#)'!&#:-*)4Z!^X_!O*7#(#)'4!E#'`##)!2
/-d#&#)'!$&*7-)3#4Z!^8_!O*7#(#)'4!*+!S. "HE1-)!b)#:%'-7#!+%&(4!%'!'9#!$&*7-)3#!1#7#1Z!^"_!O*7#(#)'4!3
*+!S. "HE1-)!b$*4-'-7#!+%&(4!%'!'9#!$&*7-)3#!1#7#1Z!c9#!3*1*&#/!1-)#4!-)!'9#!3-&31#!&#$#)'!(*7#(#)'4!4
%44-:)#/!'*!4$#3-o3!&#:-*)4!*&!$&*7-)3#4!%)/!'9#!'9-3D)#44!*+!'9#!1-)#4!&#$#)'4!'9#!$&*$*&'-*)!*+!'*'%1!5
(*7#(#)'4!%a&-EH'%E1#!'*!#%39!(*7#(#)'Z!U*'#!'9%'!'9#!*&-:-)!%)/!/#4'-)%'-*)!`#&#!`-'9-)!'9#!4%(#!6
&#:-*)!+*&!%!1%&:#!$&*$*&'-*)!*+!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'45!^mi!`-'9-)n_Z!c9#!$#&3#)'%:#!*+!'*'%1!(*7#(#)'4!7
%44-:)#/!'*!&#:-*)4!*&!$&*7-)3#4!-4!49*`)!-)!'9#!4hH%&#!E&%3D#'4!%1*):!'9#!*H'#&!&-):Z!C*&!#F%($1#5!^0_!8
49*`4!'9%'! TTi!*+! '9#!'*'%1! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'4! *&-:-)%'#/!+&*(! 2*H'9#&)!"#)(%&D5! `9-1#!P\i! `#&#!9
`-'9-)!'9#!4%(#!&#:-*)!%)/!@Ai!`#&#!+&*(!2*H'9#&)!"#)(%&D!'*!8#)'&%1!IH'1%)/Z!10
11
12
The capital
Central Jutland
Northern Jutland
Zealand
Southern Denmark
Bornholm
City Copenhagen
Funen
Copenhagen area
Northern Jutland
North Zealand
Eastern Jutland
East Zealand
South Jutland
West and South Zealand
West Jutland
Bornholm
City Copenhagen
Funen
Copenhagen area
Northern Jutland
North Zealand
Eastern Jutland
East Zealand
South Jutland
West and South Zealand
West Jutland
Bornholm
City Copenhagen
Funen
Copenhagen area
Northern Jutland
North Zealand
Eastern Jutland
East Zealand
South Jutland
West and South Zealand
West Jutland
AB
CD
24% within
1.7% within
14% within
17% within
17
Central Jutland [23]
Northern Jutland [17]
Zealand [4]
Southern Denmark [55]
North Zealand [0.4]
Eastern Jutland [5.3]
Northern Jutland [16.7]
East Zealand [0.1]
South Jutland [48]
West and South Zealand [4]
West Jutland [18]
Copenhagen [0.1]
Funen [6.9]
Bornholm [0.5]
The captial [1]
14% within
16% within
9% within
8.7
North Zealand [0.4%]
North Zealand [0.1]
Eastern Jutland [3.7]
Northern Jutland [16.3]
East Zealand [0.1]
South Jutland [54.5]
West and South Zealand [2.5]
West Jutland [17]
Copenhagen [0.1]
Funen [5.3]
Bornholm [0.4]
17% within
14% within
17% within
9.9
7.2
5.8
North Zealand [0.6]
Eastern Jutland [6.8]
Northern Jutland [16.7]
East Zealand [0.2]
South Jutland [42.4]
West and South Zealand [5.6]
West Jutland [18.6]
Copenhagen [0.1]
Funen [8.3]
Bornholm [0.7]
4.1
5.1
7.6
9.6% within
14.5% within
14% within
2.3
2.9% within
3.8
5.6
2.8% within
1.8% within
7.3
4.7
1.2% within
1.5% within
0.8% within
4
6
6
3.8
3.5
5
6.7
4.9
2.2
2.2% within
2.1% within
44
C-:H&#!2\W!^0_!O%$!*+!3%a1#!+%&(!1*3%'-*)4!-)!"#)(%&D!-)!I%)H%&.!PB@B!%)/!I%)H%&.!PBPBZ!^X_!O%$!*+!
^43&%(E1#/_!3%a1#!+%&(4!^)*/#4_!*)1.!`-'9!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!*&/4!-)!I%)H%&.!PB@B!%)/!I%)H%&.!PBPBZ!
f-)D4!E#'`##)!)*/#4!&#$#)'!'9#!'&%/#!(*7#(#)'4!%)/!'9#-&!'9-3D)#44!&#$#)'4!'9#!)H(E#&!*+!3%a1#!
'&%/#/!-)!I%)H%&.!4'&%'-o#/!+*&!'9#!.#%&!PB@B!%)/!PBPBZ!8*1*H&4!&#$#)'!-)+#3'-*)!3%'#:*&-#4!%)/!'9#!
4-]#!*+!%!$*-)'!&#$#)'4!'9#!9#&/!4-]#Z!!
Size
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Infection Category
A
B
C
D
01−2010
Size
0
1000
2000
3000
Infection Category
A
B
C
D
01−2020
Size
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Infection Category
A
B
C
D
01−2010
Size
0
1000
2000
3000
Infection Category
A
B
C
D
01−2020
Size
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Infection Category
A
B
C
D
01−2010
Size
0
1000
2000
3000
Infection Category
A
B
C
D
01−2020
Size
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Infection Category
A
B
C
D
01−2010
Size
0
1000
2000
3000
Infection Category
A
B
C
D
01−2020
A
B
Size
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Infection Category
A
B
C
D
01−2010
Size
0
1000
2000
3000
Infection Category
A
B
C
D
01−2020
01-2010 01-2020
01-2010 01-2020 Negative
Positive
Unknown
Unlikely negative
45
C-:H&#!2TW!0$$%&#)'!$%1#)3#!*+!S.!"HE1-)!-)!/%-&.!+%&(4!*7#&!'9#!@Bb.#%&!$#&-*/5!4'&%'-o#/!E.!"%)-49!
&#:-*)4!%)/!%::&#:%'#/!%'!'9#!)%'-*)%1!1#7#1Z!
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2015 2020
Date
Percentage
Bornholm
Zealand
Funen
Jutland − South
Jutland − South−West
Jutland − Central−West
Jutland − Ost
Jutland − Central
Himmerland
Jutland − North
Total Denmark
46
C-:H&#!2kW!U#'`*&D!$&*$#&'-#4!*+!)*)b-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!%)/!S. "HE1-)!-)+#3'#/!+%&(4!'*:#'9#&W!^0_!c*'%1!1
)H(E#&!*+!+%&(4!'9%'!%&#!'&%/-):Z!^X_!07#&%:#!/#:&##Z!^8_!07#&%:#!$%'9!1#):'9Z!^"_!X#'`##))#44Z!^Q_!2
"#)4-'.Z!^C_!O*/H1%&-'.Z!^;_!8*($*)#)'Z!^G_!81*4#)#44Z!3
!4
5
4000
5000
6000
7000
2010 2015 2020
Time
Number of farms
in the network
A
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
2010 2015 2020
Time
Degree
B
6
7
8
2010 2015 2020
Time
Average
path length
C
3000
4000
5000
6000
2010 2015 2020
Time
Betweenness
D
0.00025
0.00030
0.00035
0.00040
0.00045
0.00050
2010 2015 2020
Time
Density
E
0.675
0.700
0.725
0.750
0.775
2010 2015 2020
Time
Modularity
F
1000
1500
2000
2010 2015 2020
Time
Component
component_weak component_strong
G
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
2010 2015 2020
Time
Closeness
closeness closeness_in closeness_out
H
47
C-:H&#!2AW!"#:&##!/-4'&-EH'-*)4!*+!'9#!"%)-49!3%a1#!'&%/#!)#'`*&D!+*&!'9#!.#%&!PBPB!%3&*44!4#1#3'!(*)'94!6
&#$#)'#/!*)!%!1*:b1*:!43%1#W!^0_!I%)H%&.5!^X_!C#E&H%&.!%)/!^8_!O%&39Z!011!*'9#&!(*)'94!%)/!.#%&4!7
+&*(!PB@B!'*!PBPB!%&#!%7%-1%E1#!H$*)!&#hH#4'Z!c9#!/#:&##!/-4'&-EH'-*)!`%4!oa#/!E.!%!$*`#&!1%`!H4-):!8
%!(%F-(H(!1-D#1-9**/!%$$&*%39Z!C*&!#%39!(*)'95!'9#!#F$*)#)'!*+!'9#!oa#/!$*`#&!1%`!/-4'&-EH'-*)5!9
(-)-(H(! 7%1H#! +&*(! `9-39! '9#! $*`#&! 1%`! /-4'&-EH'-*)! `%4! oa#/5! 1*:b1-D#1-9**/! *+! '9#! oa#/!10
$%&%(#'#&45!j*1(*:*&*7b2(-&)*7!'#4'!4'%'-4'-35!'9#!oa#/!/-4'&-EH'-*)!`-'9!'9#!-)$H'!7#3'*&5!%)/!'9#!$b11
7%1H#!*+!'9#!j*1(*:*&*7b2(-&)*7b'#4'!%&#!3%13H1%'#/!%)/!49*`)!E#1*`!#%39!$1*'Z!c9#!#F$*)#)'4!*+!'9#!12
oa#/!$*`#&!1%`!/-4'&-EH'-*)4!`#&#!7#&.!4-(-1%&!%3&*44!(*)'94!%)/!.#%&4!%)/!&%):#/!E#'`##)!@ZMbLZLZ!!13
!14
15
16
17
18
A)
B)
C)
48
C-:H&#!2?W! c9#!*//4! &%'-*!*+! SZ!"HE1-)! -)+#3'-*)! /H#!'*! 1*3%1! ^&%/-H4!*+! T! D(_!%)/! 3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!19
'&%)4(-44-*)45!%3&*44!(*)'94!*)#!'9&*H:9!4-F!E%4#/!*)!/%'%!*+!$-*H4!^0_!Pb(*)'945!^X_!Lb(*)'94!20
%)/!^8_!\b(*)'94Z!0/>H4'#/!+*&!+%&(!4-]#5!3%a1#!(*7#(#)'!(*)'95!$&*/H3'-*)!3%'#:*&.!*+!+%&(4!%)/!21
'*'%1!)#-:9E*H&9**/!^'*'%1!)H(E#&!*+!+%&(4!-)!%!&%/-H4!*+!T!D(!%&*H)/!'9#!-)+#3'#/!+%&(_Z!U*'#!'9%'!22
1*3%1! '&%)4(-44-*)4! -)31H/#/! %11! $&#(-4#4! ^-Z#Z5! -)31H/-):! +%&(4! `-'9*H'! 3%a1#! (*7#(#)'4! '*! *'9#&!23
$&#(-4#4_Z!24
!25
26
Next month
Next two months
Next three months
Next four months
Next five months
Next six months
Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Odds Ratio with 95% CI
a)
Next month
Next two months
Next three months
Next four months
Next five months
Next six months
Local Trading Local Trading Local Trading Local Trading Local Trading Local Trading
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
Exposure to local and trading transmission
Odds Ratio with 95% CI *
Salmonella Dublin Infection in
* Adjusted for farm size, month, production category, and total neighborhood ( number of farms in the range of 5km)
Odds Ratio with 95% CI
b)
Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement
Next month
Next two months
Next three months
Next four months
Next five months
Next six months
Local Trading Local Trading Local Trading Local Trading Local Trading Local Trading
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
Exposure to local and trading transmission
Odds Ratio with 95% CI *
Salmonella Dublin Infection in
Odds Ratio with 95% CI
Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement Local Movement
c)
Exposure to local or cattle movement transmissions