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Effects of fodder production on smallholder farmers' household income in Homa Bay County, Kenya: An application of propensity score matching
Abstract
The global feed production has increased in the past few years. Despite the growing trend, the current production does not meet the demand in Kenya. The government of Kenya has initiated several efforts towards promoting fodder production to increase milk production and household income. This study analysed the effects of fodder production on household income in Homa Bay County, Kenya using the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique. The study used primary data collected through structured questionnaires in Homabay County, Kenya from a sample size of 300 smallholder farmers. Results indicated that years of schooling, herd size, household size, labour used in land preparation, and land size under fodder had a positive influence on the probability of farmers to mainly feed their livestock on Napier grass. On the contrary, the number of extension contacts negatively influenced the probability of farmers feeding their livestock on Napier grass. Results show that there was a significant difference between the incomes of farmers who fed their cattle on Napier grass and those who mainly grazed their cattle on natural grass. Specifically, smallholder farmers who fed their livestock on Napier grass reported a Kshs. 3,916.67 (USD 25.71) higher income than their counterparts who grazed their livestock on natural grass reflecting an increase by 24.94%. Thus, the study recommends the need for both the national and county governments to incorporate fodder production as a key area for livestock development agenda in their policy plans to improve the farmers’ income.
Attempts have been made to promote the adoption of modern dairy farming technologies (MDFT). However, the adoption of these technologies largely remains underutilized. This study aimed to analyze the determinants of the adoption of MDFTs in Meru County. Using purposive and proportionate sampling techniques from 355 smallholder dairy farmers in Meru County, Kenya, this study analyzed the factors that facilitate or impede the adoption of MDFTs. We use a Multivariate probit (MVP) to evaluate adoption decisions by dairy farm households facing multiple MDFTs. The results reveal a significant correlation among the eight MDFTs suggesting that modern technologies are interrelated. The MVP model results indicate that household income, education level, number of extension contacts, access to credit, farmer group membership, farming experience and livestock monetary value had positive effect on the adoption of MDFTs. Education level and extension contacts had a positive influence on the adoption of fodder establishment and preservation technologies. Farming experience in dairy farming had a positive effect on the adoption of well-structured and clean sleeping areas, and the growth of Rhodes grass. Household income had a positive effect on the growth of Rhodes grass and feed mixture. This work illustrates a need for a policy implication and insight into a need for the county government and private milk processing companies to increase extension frequency to enhance the adoption of MDFTs. Additionally, there is a need to increase access to affordable credit, this should be considered by the government by establishing strengthening a smallholder low-interest and efficient local credit schemes and institutions.
Fodder scarcity and low quality affect the productivity of dairy cattle in Kenya. Information on the unique strategies used by successful farmers also called positive deviants (PDs) among smallholder dairy farms is scanty. The objective of this study, therefore, was to determine the strategies distinguishing PDs from their peers (non-PDs), in fodder conservation at highlands and midlands agroecological zones of Tharaka Nithi County. Multistage sampling was used to select 121 smallholder dairy farms producing and conserving fodder. An increase in; land under fodder and crop residue, access to extension services, herd size, and milk yield (kg/cow/day) result in to increase in fodder conserved. Therefore, increased herd size, milk yield, land allocated to fodder production, and access to knowledge and skills promote fodder conservation. Further research on PDs methods and technologies of fodder conservation as well as economic performance could provide additional information to develop the dairy industry in highlands and midlands.
Adoption of improved forage technologies remains to be one of a promising strategy to boost dairy productivity and enhance household income in many developing countries. However, there are limited rigorous impact evaluation studies on the contributions of such technologies on smallholder dairy productivity and household welfare. is paper examined the impact of improved forage technologies use on smallholder dairy productivity and farm household income in Northern Ethiopia. In this study, a cross-sectional survey design and a multistage strati ed sampling procedure were employed. Primary data for the study were obtained from a random sample of 319 rural households, 128 of which are improved forage technology users and the rest are nonusers. e research employed the propensity score matching (PSM) procedure to determine the causal relationship between adoption of improved forage technologies and changes in milk yield and farm household income. Results from PSM revealed that households using improved forage technologies have increased the household milk yield (productivity) by 29.32% and farm income (welfare) by 19.56%. Higher milk yield and annual farm income were compared to those households not using such technologies. Our ndings highlight the importance of promoting multiple improved forage technologies among rural smallholder's dairy producers. Considering this potential, it is suggested that improved forage technology generation, dissemination , and adoption interventions be strengthened for optimum milk production and to attain optimum income under the smallholder farmers' dairy production system. Moreover, the linkage among research, extension, universities, and farmers needs to be enhanced through facilitating a multistakeholder's innovation platform.
The sustainability of the livestock sector in sub-Saharan Africa is negatively affected by limited access to high-quality fodder in adequate quantities. The effects of climate change further exacerbate feed availability. Therefore, there is a need to develop feasible cost-effective strategies for improving the year-round feed supply. Improved planted forages such as Brachiaria grass have been recommended as one of the strategies of alleviating feed scarcity, especially in drier agro-ecological zones. This study analyses the socio-economic determinants of adoption and the impact of adopting Brachiaria grass for feed sufficiency and increased milk production. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method was used to assess the determinants and impact of the adoption of Brachiaria grass. Empirical results indicate that the adoption of Brachiaria grass led to a significant increase in milk production by 27.6% and feed sufficiency by 31.6%. The positive impact of Brachiaria grass is consistent with the role of agricultural technologies in improving the productivity, income, and welfare of smallholder farmers. The adoption of Brachiaria grass is influenced by age of farmer, tropical livestock unit (TLU), type of animal breed, perceived benefits of the technology, access to extension, and farmer group membership. The study recommends holistic policy approaches that promote the widespread adoption of Brachiaria grass. There is also a need for an effective information dissemination pathway for Brachiaria grass.
There is a growing interest in protein supplementation of dairy-cow diets using leguminous shrubs. The study objective was to ascertain the association between diet supplementation with Calliandra calothyrsus and Sesbania sesban and milk production in dairy cattle on commercial smallholder farms. This trial involved 235 cows from 80 smallholder dairy farms in Kenya randomly allocated to 4 intervention groups: (1) receiving Calliandra and Sesbania and nutritional advice; (2) receiving reproductive medicines and advice; (3) receiving both group 1 and 2 interventions; and (4) receiving neither intervention. Farm nutritional practices and management data were collected in a questionnaire, and subsequent physical examinations, mastitis tests, and milk production of cows on the farm were monitored approximately monthly for 16 months. Descriptive and univariable statistical analyses were conducted, and multivariable mixed-model regression was used for identification of factors associated (P
The Service Provider Enterprise (SPE) is an innovative youth-led business model in which young men and women form groups to offer commercial support services to entrepreneurial smallholders and medium-scale farmers in the vibrant Kenyan dairy value chain. There are currently 29 SPEs operating in six counties in high dairy potential regions in Kenya. They are linked to dairy farmer cooperative societies (DFCSs) to provide services to their members and suppliers to help address feed-related challenges.
A study carried out by the 3R Kenya project in collaboration with the Assessing and supporting Dairy Input & Advisory service Systems (ADIAS) project assessed the performance of SPEs to establish the extent to which the model offers business options for youth in agriculture. This assessment addresses technical (i.e. soundness, quality and effectiveness of service delivery) and entrepreneurial (i.e. management, marketing and income generation) performance of the SPEs.
Once again, agricultural mechanization is top on the policy, research, and development agendas in sub-Saharan Africa. However, whether labor is limiting in this region—and mechanization is in demand—remains debated. The hypothesis of this study is that labor is a major limiting factor to the productivity of most farming systems in Africa. We used farm-level data (including detailed labor data) from eight sites dominated by smallholder agriculture and spanning four countries in Eastern and Southern Africa, and analyzed this unique dataset using multivariate methods (generalized linear models, boundary line analysis, and binary classification and regression trees). Labor and/or other sources of farm power (draught power or tractor power) were found to limit land productivity in all study sites. We also found that the overall contribution of female labor to farming was much lower than commonly stated—between 7 and 35%—and that the labor intensity experienced by women in agriculture was dependent to a large degree on men’s tasks. Our results reveal a much higher demand for mechanization than previously found by macroeconomic analyses, and point to a problem of access rather than demand. Our results also add to recent evidence debunking the persistent myth that women provide the bulk of the farming labor, and demonstrate that reducing labor intensity experienced by women in farming depends to a large degree upon understanding labor intensity experienced by men, rather than poorly founded generalizations about how women are overworked. This is the first time farm-level data containing detailed labor assessment and spanning four countries are used to assess mechanization demand in Africa. This paper also plays a pioneering role in debunking a number of myths related to labor in African smallholder agriculture, with implications for the mechanization agenda of the region.
Fodder production has been regarded as one of the suitable strategies for increasing feed availability for enhanced livestock production among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the drylands of Kenya. Previous studies indicate that factors determining participation in these practices vary from time to time and from one location to another. This study was conducted to assess the socio-economic and demographic factors influencing households’ participation in fodder production in Makueni and Kajiado Counties. Data was collected from 216 households through interviews using semi-structured questionnaire. Results indicate that gender of household head, education, social/development group membership and access to extension services were the most important factors influencing households’ participation in fodder production. There is need for technical support to the pastoral and agro-pastoral households towards starting and/or joining existing social groups, through which extension and training services can be offered. This would go a long way in enhancing fodder production in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya.
The purpose of the survey was to document the current status of fodder production, conservation and marketing in the arid and semi-arid land (ASAL) Divisions of Tharaka Nithi County, Kenya. The survey covered specifically Nkondi, Igambang’ombe and Tharaka Central divisions. A sample of 74 livestock farmers selected through stratified random sampling was engaged in the study. The study adopted a descriptive research design and data was collected using a structured questionnaire to obtain farm level information from livestock farmers. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Chi-square statistics was used to test the relative significance between land owned and fodder production. The majority of the respondents (68%) owned between 1 and 6 acres. The results indicated that most farmers did not grow fodder crops. The main type of fodder produced by farmers in the study area was Napier grass (cultivated by 10% of the respondents). Although a number of livestock farmers grew napier grass, it was not adequate for marketing and conservation. The results further indicated that only 1% of the respondents grew fodder on a piece of land between 1 and 3 acres thus implying that the amount of fodder grown was too little and could not cater for the livestock feeds required. There was a significant association between land sizes and fodder production (p < 0.05). Thus preference was given to crop cultivation due to limited land and approximately 80% of the respondents conserved maize stalks and other crop residues for their livestock. Fodder production, conservation and marketing were very low despite the high potential for its production and the possibility of becoming an income generating enterprise. The study therefore recommended for outreach programmes to train farmers on fodder production, conservation and marketing through Chuka University in collaboration with the area extension agents.
Pastoral communities in Kenya are faced with many challenges chief of them recurrent and prolonged droughts which has triggered a number of responses aimed at enhancing resilience of pastoral households against such shocks. Fodder production is increasingly gaining popularity as a source of both livestock feed and income for pastoral households. In Baringo County, fodder production groups drawing membership from the community have been established with the aim of improving household livelihoods. This has however, been going on in the absence of empirical evidence to guide out-scaling of such approach. This study was carried out in Marigat Sub-County of Baringo County to map the fodder and grass seed value chain, determine its profitability based on gross margin and contribution to household income as well as factors that influence households’ participation in fodder production groups. Household interviews, focus group discussions and key informant interviews were used to gather data.
The results show that fodder producers were mainly composed of men, majority of whom had attained primary level education, and livestock keeping was their main occupation. Cenchrus ciliaris was the preferred grass species by the fodder producers due to its ability to easily establish, drought tolerance and it’s viable and easy to harvest seeds. Those involved in bulking and processing of grass seeds were found to be the dominant actors in the value chain. Besides buying grass seeds from producers, these agents provided inputs and ploughing services, and trained farmers. The individuals produced 28.13 kgs of seeds/acre while the groups produced 9.35 kgs/acre. A kilogram of grass seed was sold at an average price of Kshs. 250 by the fodder producers at the farm gate. However, the price varied depending on the quantity of grass seed offered for sale by a producer, the market outlet and the price negotiation skills of the producer whenever that option was available.
Individual fodder producers made an average profit of Kshs. 1,088.60 per acre while the groups made a profit of Kshs. 474.48 per acre in the September to December fodder growing season of 2013. The leading sources of production costs were found to be ploughing and purchase of grass seed. Fodder production contributed about 5.71% of the monthly household income of individual producers compared to 0.42% for the group producers in the period under study (2013).
The results of the binary logit model show that households’ access to communal drought grazing reserves and their past bad experience with drought positively influenced their participation in fodder groups. The number of livelihoods pursued by a household, its herd size and the age of the household head negatively influenced membership to fodder production groups. Drought occurrences and low prices offered for grass seeds as well as failure of the existing market outlets to purchase grass seeds at times were found to be some of the challenges facing the fodder producers in the value chain. However, the findings of this study indicate that fodder production has the potential to address cash needs for pastoral households. The study recommends the need to link the fodder producers to reliable markets to cushion them from low prices offered for produced grass seeds. Also important is access to more input and service providers in the fodder and grass seed value chain to help lower the high prices of inputs associated with the current monopolistic nature of input market. Moreover, the current communal drought grazing reserves in pastoral areas should be sustained and expanded to complement fodder production efforts by households through provision of forage to sustain their herds during prolonged dry seasons and drought.
Key words: Pastoral households, fodder and grass seed value chain, profitability of fodder production, collective action.
The adoption and adaptation of enclosures in the arid and semi-arid rangelands of sub-Saharan Africa is driven and sustained by a combination of factors. However, reviews indicate that these factors cannot be generalized, as they tend to be case specific. A study was therefore conducted to explore the history and reasons for enclosure establishment in Chepareria, a formerly degraded communal rangeland in north-western Kenya. While Vi-Agroforestry Organization accounting for 52.5 % was the main source of knowledge on enclosure establishment; it has now emerged that rangeland enclosures among the Pokot pastoral community existed prior to land management interventions by Vi- Agroforestry. Results indicated that there are three categories of enclosures which were established for boundary demarcation, provide grazing reserves, enable proper land management, facilitate crop cultivation in a pastoral setup and to curb land degradation. The role of self-trigger [accounting for most of the spontaneous enclosures (73.5 %)] indicates the continued establishment and expansion of areas under enclosure management as private land ownership accounting for 51.7 % of enclosure tenure continues to gain momentum in Chepareria. While rangeland enclosures in Chepareria were mainly established for boundary demarcation, to alleviate pasture scarcity and enable proper management of formerly degraded areas; they have facilitated land restoration and rehabilitation by increasing flexibility in land, fodder and livestock management amongst agro-pastoralists in Chepareria over the last three decades. To ensure that rehabilitated areas do not revert to their previously degraded state; technical interventions are needed to allow for a more intensive use of rangeland resources within enclosed areas.
Napier grass [Pennisetum purpureum (Schum.)] is the most popular perennial fodder recommended for smallholder crop-livestock farming systems in Kenya, where 80% of the national milk output is produced. The emergence of new diseases resulting in DM yield losses signals the need to develop alternatives to currently grown cultivars. Eight new cultivars (Kakamega 1, Kakamega 3, Machakos hairless, Uganda L14, Soghor Nandi L13, Kitui L7, Ex-Mariakani and Kakamega 8) were compared to four currently grown cultivars (Bana, French Cameroon, Clone 13 and Pakistan Hybrid) in the sub-humid highlands of northwestern Kenya for two growing seasons. Agronomic measurements were made on DM yield, tiller number, length, diameter and angle, leaf length, width, hairiness and colour and disease incidence. Nutritional measurements were made on leaf to stem ratio, intake, milk yields and body condition of Friesian cows. Kakamega 1, and Kakamega 3 yielded similar (p > 0.05) DM yield as Clone 13, Bana and French Cameroon, which yielded more than 16 t ha-1 and greater (p < 0.05) than soghor Nandi L13, Kitui L7, Ex-Mariakani, Kakamega 8 and Pakistan hybrid. The tallest cultivars were Kakamega 1, Clone 13, and Kakamega 3 with 70, 69 and 61 cm, respectively. There was positive correlation (r = 0.65; p < 0.001) between tiller thickness and tiller length. There were no differences (p > 0.05) in DM intake between Bana, Kakamega 1, Kakamega 3 and Machakos hairless. Cows feeding on Kakamega 3 and Kakamega 1 Napier grass cultivars yielded similar (p > 0.05) milk as those fed Bana grass, but more (p < 0.05) than those fed Machackos hairless. Kakamega 1 and Kakamega 3 could be used as alternatives to the currently grown Bana grass in Kenya.
Smallholder dairy cattle producers in Uganda face major production constraints including inadequate and poor quality feeds. Forage technologies have been widely recommended to alleviate this problem. This study aimed at comparing profitability of dairy cattle enterprises using improved forage technologies (IFTs) with those using local technologies, and determining factors affecting the use of IFTs among smallholder dairy farmers. Data were collected from 121 farmers in Soroti district. Descriptive statistics, partial budget analysis, probit model, and Ordinary Least Squares were used to analyze data. Results indicated that farmers using IFT had significantly (p<0.01) higher gross margins than those using local feeding methods. Probit model results indicated that profitability of technology influenced the decision to use IFT when interacted with improved cattle breed. The decision to use IFTs had a positive significant (p<0.1) relationship with profitability of dairy cattle enterprises. Policies targeting efficient dissemination of IFTs are recommended to improve profitability.
Particularly in developing countries, forests provide feed for livestock in the form of fodder for stall-feeding and grazing in forest areas. Extraction of fodder resources from forests often leads to forest degradation. An attempt has been made to qualify extend of biomass extraction from forests and to compare forest fodder dependence of households in a number of forest density classes in the mountainous region of Himalayas, in Uttarakhand state in India, according to livestock owners’ perspectives. Information was obtained from a survey of livestock feed and fodder collection and utilization from 316 randomly selected households distributed across four government-defined forest density classes, namely very dense forest, moderately dense forest, open forest and scrub. Households obtained feed and fodder for livestock from three sources, i.e. forest areas, non-forest areas and local markets. Daily feed consumption per adult cattle unit varied according to source, ranging from 9.85 to 14.70 kg from forest areas, 7.40 to 11.14 kg from non-forest areas, and less than 1 kg from local markets. The dependency of households on fodder for livestock differed significantly between households located in each forest density classes. The current forest fodder extraction rate is likely to be unsustainable. Measures identified to reduce the extraction rate include greater use of alternative fodder sources and managing small patches of the natural forests adjoining dependent villages for fodder production through community participation.
The propensity score is the conditional probability of assignment to a particular treatment given a vector of observed covariates. Both large and small sample theory show that adjustment for the scalar propensity score is sufficient to remove bias due to all observed covariates. Applications include: (i) matched sampling on the univariate propensity score, which is a generalization of discriminant matching, (ii) multivariate adjustment by subclassification on the propensity score where the same subclasses are used to estimate treatment effects for all outcome variables and in all subpopulations, and (iii) visual representation of multivariate covariance adjustment by a two- dimensional plot.
Smallholder farmers in developing countries face numerous limitations that hinder them from embracing improved agricultural practices and innovations with great potential for meaningful transformations of livelihoods. Consequently, farmers continue living in vicious cycles of poverty despite decades of government and donor expenditures on poverty alleviation. In the last two decades, research and development organizations collaborated in testing and validating selected fodder shrub species as reliable sources of less expensive and easily available protein feeds. With minimal interventions, the research findings have great potential to improve productivity for many smallholder farmers. Tested species include Calliandra calothyrsus, Leucaena spp., Chamaecytisus palmensis, Sesbania sesban, Morus alba and Gliricidia sepium. Dissemination and adoption surveys estimated that 205,000 smallholder farmers (40-50 per cent being women) had planted fodder shrubs by 2005. Currently, fodder shrubs contribute US81 million. Factors associated with success in fodder scaling-up include deliberate involvement of fodder technology champions, collective action in community mobilization and project implementation, pluralistic extension approaches, sustainable germplasm supply systems, broader partnerships and civil society campaigns. Constraints and challenges include: ineffective delivery of extension and research services, inhibitive policies, political interferences, frequent droughts and inadequate monitoring and evaluation systems.
This paper considers whether it is possible to devise a nonexperimental procedure for evaluating a prototypical job training programme. Using rich nonexperimental data, we examine the performance of a two-stage evaluation methodology that (a) estimates the probability that a person participates in a programme and (b) uses the estimated probability in extensions of the classical method of matching. We decompose the conventional measure of programme evaluation bias into several components and find that bias due to selection on unobservables, commonly called selection bias in econometrics, is empirically less important than other components, although it is still a sizeable fraction of the estimated programme impact. Matching methods applied to comparison groups located in the same labour markets as participants and administered the same questionnaire eliminate much of the bias as conventionally measured, but the remaining bias is a considerable fraction of experimentally-determined programme impact estimates. We test and reject the identifying assumptions that justify the classical method of matching. We present a nonparametric conditional difference-in-differences extension of the method of matching that is consistent with the classical index-sufficient sample selection model and is not rejected by our tests of identifying assumptions. This estimator is effective in eliminating bias, especially when it is due to temporally-invariant omitted variables.
The dairy industry in Kenya is an important source of livelihood among the smallholder farmers who supply over 70% of the total milk. However, there is a growing concern on rising costs of milk production among farmers. The study assessed profit efficiency of smallholder dairying in the Rift Valley and Central Provinces of Kenya using stochastic frontier analysis for estimating farm level profit efficiency and identifying the specific determinants of efficiency. The results showed that the farmers are fairly profit efficient with an average of about 68%. Cost of fodder produced on farm significantly improved profit efficiency among farmers. However dairy profit efficiency can be enhanced if fodder production is embraced, as well as other supplemental feed technologies that are commensurate with local conditions. Institutional policy reforms on smallholder dairying will help protect the industry and its sustainability for smallholders.
Increasing crop market participation has the potential to help agricultural households unlock the well known benefits of trade. In this article a double hurdle model and a tobit model are used to identify factors that influence market participation decisions among Ugandan banana growers. This article is motivated by the need to better understand the drivers of commercialisation for a perishable crop. Data for the econometric analyses come from a household survey conducted in southwestern Uganda. Policies focused on improving banana-growing productivity, increasing prices and reducing the economic costs of distance to market appear important in helping the Ugandan government achieve its goal of a more commercialized agricultural sector. Increasing land size does not help generate larger marketable surpluses when distance to markets increase. Thus, gains in crop productivity appear important in facilitating more market exchanges.
Three forms of pea seed meal (native - NAT Diet, autoclaved - AC Diet and dry cooked - DC Diet) were evaluated in balanced diets for common carp fry (Cyprinus carpio L.) replacing solvent extracted soybean meal protein in a fish meal / soybean meal based control diet (CTR Diet).After a 49- day growth trial, weight gain, feed conversion ratio, protein efficiency ratio and apparent net nitrogen utilization of fish fed the fish meal / soybean meal diet (CTR Diet) and of that fed the pea seed meal subjected to different thermal treatments were determined. Significant differences (P < 0.05) were found in the mean final weight (MFW) and specific growth rates (SGR) between fish fed the CTR and NAT Diets (i.e., mean final weight: 30.69 and 25.70 g, respectively; SGR: 2.84 and 2.51 g, respectively). The mean final weight of carp fed the autoclaved pea seed meal diet (MFW 28.40 g, AC Diet) and the group fed the dry cooked pea seed meal diet (MFW 29.34 g, DC Diet) were not deemed significantly (P > 0.05) different to those of carp fed the fish meal / soybean meal control diet.A sequential digestibility study was also undertaken to complement the growth trial. Apparent nutrient and energy digestibility coefficients (ADCs) reflected a similar trend as results in the first trial. Apparent nutrient and energy digestibility coefficients were found to be highest when fish were fed the CTR Diet. Apparent digestibility coefficients of carp fed the AC and DC Diets were generally higher than that of the NAT Diet. Overall, ADC's of fish fed the DC Diet were generally higher than that of the AC Diet.It can be concluded that thermal treatment can nutritionally modify pea seed meal to some extent: the dry heating treatment proved to be slightly more effective than the moist heat treatment in terms of growth performance, feed utilization efficiency and apparent digestibility in common carp.
Based on the conditional independence or unconfoundedness assump- tion, matching has become a popular approach to estimate average treatment effects. Checking the sensitivity of the estimated results with respect to devia- tions from this identifying assumption has become an increasingly important topic in the applied evaluation literature. If there are unobserved variables that affect assignment into treatment and the outcome variable simultaneously, a hidden bias might arise to which matching estimators are not robust. We address this prob- lem with the bounding approach proposed by Rosenbaum (Observational Studies, 2nd ed., New York: Springer), where mhbounds lets the researcher determine how strongly an unmeasured variable must influence the selection process to undermine the implications of the matching analysis. Copyright 2007 by StataCorp LP.
In this paper we evaluate a Norwegian vocational training rehabilitation program by comparing employment outcomes of trainees and nonparticipants using nonexperimental data. A matching estimator is used to calculate the training effect for different subgroups of the sample. We demonstrate how bounding the matching estimator can be used to evaluate the intrinsic uncertainty of estimated training effects due to selection on unobserved individual characteristics. After adjustment for observed selection into training programs we find that the overall training effect is around six percentage points. This is mainly due to a high and significant effect for individuals with a low probability of program participation. After calculating upper and lower bounds on the test statistics used to test the hypothesis of no training effect we find that the overall effect is sensitive to unobserved selection. However, the result that the training effect is positive for individuals who are less likely to participate in a training program is not sensitive to selection bias. These individuals also have the lowest employment probabilities, which indicates potential harmful cream skimming in the Norwegian vocational rehabilitation sector.Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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