Article

Method for Reducing Risks in Agriculture Associated with Droughts, Taking into Account the Probability of Their Occurrence

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Abstract

The increase in mean and extreme temperatures against the background of almost unchanged precipitation in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) leads to a number of changes affecting agricultural production. The combination of such unfavorable environmental factors as high temperature and water shortage can have a relatively short-term, but strong impact on the crop industry with long-term consequences. It is expected that, taking into account current trends in climate change, the foothill and plane zones in the south of the ETR will be in an arid zone. Thus water scarcity has been and remains a critical factor in determining crop production in the region. The paper discusses the mechanisms of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It is noted that the relevance of developing effective and cost-effective for practical use methods to reduce risks in this industry associated with extreme weather events, including droughts, is increasing and becoming an essential condition for ensuring the country's food security. The features of information support of the problem of developing models for reducing risks associated with droughts are noted. A method for reducing agricultural losses associated with this weather event is outlined. It is based on exploiting the different vulnerabilities of crops by hazardous weather events. The possibilities of practical use of the method under conditions of climate change are touched upon, and the main tasks arising along this path are discussed. The results of model calculations, which were carried out in order to study the effectiveness of the method, are presented. It is noted that, on the basis of the proposed approach, flexible and quickly responding to changes in the conditions for the functioning of agriculture, systems can be created to reduce the loss of agriculture from adverse weather events.

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Conference Paper
The results of analyzing the impact of climate change on crop production conditions in the foothill and plain climatic zones of the North Caucasus are presented. For this purpose, using data from meteorological stations located in these climatic zones, the values of the hydrothermal coefficient of hydration for the time period 1961-2022 were determined. The results of analysis and forecasting of time series of this coefficient showed that the consequence of climate change in the region is a rapid deterioration of agricultural production conditions, namely, a decrease in soil moisture content.
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