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Potatoes as a food crop contribute to zero hunger: Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2). Over the years, the global potato supply has increased by more than double consumption. Changing climatic conditions are a significant determinant of crop growth and development due to the impacts of meteorological conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, on yields, placing nations under the threat of food insecurity. Potatoes are prone to climatic variables such as heat, precipitation, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), droughts, and unexpected frosts. A crop simulation model is useful for assessing the effects of climate and various cultivation environments on potato growth and yields. This article aims to review recent literature on known and potential effects of climate change on global potato yields and further highlights tools and methods for assessing those effects. In particular, this review will explore (1) global potato production, growth and varieties; (2) a review of the mechanisms by which changing climates impact potato yields; (3) a review of crop simulation models as tools for assessing the impacts of climate change on potato yields, and (4) most importantly, this review identifies critical gaps in data availability, modeling tools, and adaptation measures, that lays a foundation for future research toward sustainable potato production under the changing climate.
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Environ. Res.: Climate 3(2024) 012001 https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad0e13
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TOPICAL REVIEW
Climate change impacts on global potato yields: a review
Toyin Adekanmbi1,2, Xiuquan Wang1,2,, Sana Basheer1,2, Suqi Liu1,3, Aili Yang4and Huiyan Cheng4
1Canadian Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, St. Peter’s Bay, PE C0A 2A0, Canada
2School of Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE C1A 4P3, Canada
3Department of Agriculture and Land, Government of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE C1A 7N8, Canada
4School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, People’s Republic of China
Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.
E-mail: xxwang@upei.ca
Keywords: climate change, potato yield, crop model, DSSAT, food security
Supplementary material for this article is available online
Abstract
Potatoes as a food crop contribute to zero hunger: Sustainable Development Goal 2. Over the years,
the global potato supply has increased by more than double consumption. Changing climatic
conditions are a significant determinant of crop growth and development due to the impacts of
meteorological conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, on yields,
placing nations under the threat of food insecurity. Potatoes are prone to climatic variables such as
heat, precipitation, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), droughts, and unexpected frosts. A crop
simulation model (CSM) is useful for assessing the effects of climate and various cultivation
environments on potato growth and yields. This article aims to review recent literature on known
and potential effects of climate change on global potato yields and further highlights tools and
methods for assessing those effects. In particular, this review will explore (1) global potato
production, growth and varieties; (2) a review of the mechanisms by which changing climates
impact potato yields; (3) a review of CSMs as tools for assessing the impacts of climate change on
potato yields, and (4) most importantly, this review identifies critical gaps in data availability,
modeling tools, and adaptation measures, that lays a foundation for future research toward
sustainable potato production under the changing climate.
1. Introduction
In the pursuit of achieving zero hunger (SDG 2-Sustainable Development Goal 2), tackling climate change
(SDG 13-climate action) is crucial [13] to enhance food security, which ascertains timely economic,
physical, and social access to nutritious, sufficient, and safe food for proper dietary and healthy living [4,5].
In this regard, providing quality and stable food with sufficient access is essential to end hunger,
malnutrition, and food insecurity, considering the four pillars of food security (availability, access, stability,
and utilization). In addition to investing in the food system (funding farmers and providing agriculture
equipment), ensuring food’s nutritional standards and affordability is equally essential. In this context,
potatoes are a significant stable crop that is thought to be nutrient-dense, affordable, widely accessible, and
could significantly contribute to ending hunger to maintain food security [58].
Potatoes are essential crops that contribute to food security in the current food system because of their
many values [4]. Regarding food nutrition, supply, and security, with global climate change challenges
significantly resulting from current population growth, potatoes are recommended as a staple crop for
human consumption [4,9]. Potatoes are plant-based protein, a nutrient-dense vegetable crop that can be
used to substitute animal-based protein. International development organizations have begun to appreciate
the smallholder expertise that allowed potatoes to preserve their genetic diversity [10]. Potatoes withstand
inclement weather more than most major crops [11,12]. Potato farming generates revenue and jobs [4]; the
contemporary history of potatoes enumerates that potatoes play a crucial role in national security [10]. Many
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd
Environ. Res.: Climate 3(2024) 012001 T Adekanmbi et al
Figure 1. Variables impacting potato yields.
countries have registered specific potato varieties as part of their national patrimony. Potatoes production
has a lower carbon footprint, and their cultivation requires less water supply than many other crops [4,12].
Notably, according to some studies, potatoes’ high glycemic index raises the risk of obesity. On the contrary,
recent clinical intervention and observational studies reviews concluded that convincing evidence is not
available to link potato intake to risks of obesity, cardiovascular disease or Type II diabetes [4].
Potatoes are prone to factors such as biotic, including nematodes, fungi, bacteria, pathogens, pests and
diseases damages and abiotic including sunlight, drought, humidity, precipitation, frost, salinity and
temperature changes and intense weather variation (figure 1) [1315].
This paper focuses on climate variables (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2
concentration) and simulates their impacts on potato yield, which is vital. However, farm management
practices determine two-thirds of potato yield variation [2], while extreme weather significantly impacts its
yields [6]. Researchers have employed crop simulation models (CSMs) in simulating the impacts of climate
change on potato yields caused chiefly by increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) and various management
options for sustained potato production. The effectiveness of the models has brought about a series of
programs able to model crop growth, development, and production using genotype, environmental, and
management information. This review explores the recent and past literature on the impacts of climate
change on potato yields. Additionally, it identifies the research gaps that must be filled to assess the impacts
of changing climatic conditions. This literature identifies the effects of the changing environment as a global
challenge to food and nutritional security. The atmospheric GHG emissions increase temperature. Many
studies have assessed the impacts of the changing climatic conditions on agriculture using different
techniques, some suggesting CSMs with climate scenarios to predict the effects of climatic changes on crops
and examine various adaptation strategies for optimal production.
According to the literature, climate variables determine potatoes’ growth and yields [1620]. Adesina and
Thomas [16] modeled the potential effects of climatic changes on the United Kingdom’s potato production
and reported that future climate scenarios hinder land preparation and harvest operations in the Northern
regions. At the same time, some parts are prone to irrigation and water demand, and drought increases as
evapotranspiration increases and potato irrigation is predicted to double. Bender & and Sentelhas [17]
simulated the impacts of projected climate change for varying growing seasons on potatoes in the producing
regions of central Brazil. Their studies indicate that Brazil’s climate would impact potato crops differently,
determined by the planting season and production region. In their research, Holden et al [18] revealed that
in Ireland, there would be extreme seasonal rainfall and an increase of about 1.6 C in relative temperature,
which could cause potato yields to decline in 2055 and 2075 for non-irrigated tubers. These findings inform
that the irrigation demand for potato growth will be significant and most likely make the crop non-viable for
farmers, especially in the eastern region of Ireland, where competition for water exists in summer. Li and
Zhang [20] simulated the impacts of changing climate on China’s northwest region potato yields. Their study
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shows that potato yields increased from 1982 to 2015, distinctively with planting area and an inter-annual
variation. There is a significant increase in temperature compared to most other climatic factors during the
potato development in China’s northeast region. Naz et al [19] modeled the impact of climate warming on
potato phenology in Pakistan from 1980 to 2018. They discovered that the predicted phenology stages
occurred earlier with increased temperature, and the impacts on the phenological steps observed were
insignificant.
This article’s focus is on climate change globally impacting potato yields. As a review, it synthesizes
relevant literature that assesses the impacts of changing climate on potato yields. First, it overviews vital
themes pertinent to global potato yields, including growth stages, varieties, and production. Second, we
narrow the discussion to the impacts of climatic changes as a threat to food security, pointing to the effects of
various climatic variables on potato yields and, as an adaptation strategy, enumerating the different methods
of assessing the climate change impacts on potato yields. Third, the article describes CSMs as a tool for
evaluating the climate change impacts on potato yields to inform adaptation methods and briefly highlights
an example of CSM, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). Finally, this paper
addresses research gaps and directions for future research.
Information and data were sourced from published articles, reports, and databases. We used various
keywords and database sources to search for literature and relevant studies; keyword combinations from the
first category (climate change impacts, potato yields, DSSAT, future scenario) and the second category (CSM,
management practices, food security). A total of 235 papers and articles were gathered through a literature
search; the most relevant were cited and referenced in this review paper. The data sources present the
regions/countries, prospective year, cultivar, model, scenario, yield, and references (supplementary
information S1).
2. Growth stages, varieties, and global production of potatoes
Potatoes, a member of the family Solanaceae, known as Solanum tuberosum L., originated in the Andean
Mountains region of South America [21,22]. In Andean, it is a crop consumed as food and domesticated
pre-Columbian for over 10000 and 8000 years, respectively [23].
2.1. Overview and growth stages of potatoes
Potatoes are an essential food crop that provides a tremendous edible protein and a high, dry matter required
for human consumption; a tuber approximately composed of 2.1% protein, 70%–80% water, 1.1% crude
fiber, 20.6% carbohydrate, 0.3% fat, and 0.9% ash [24]. Potatoes, the fourth most common and essential
food crop eaten globally, after rice, wheat, and maize [25], have excellent yield production and high
nutritional value [22,25]. Potatoes are grown using tubers (seed tubers), through which main stems
originate and consist of a variable number of primary branches. They exhibit varying branching depending
on the genotype, the tuber’s physiological age and the conditions of the environment [21]. Potato plants
require varying nutrient levels at different growth phases. Potatoes have five most vital developmental steps
that determine the yields: the development of sprouts, vegetative development, initiation of tuber, bulking of
tuber, and maturity [2630].
2.2. Potato varieties
About five thousand potato varieties exist worldwide, and nearly three thousand are from the Andes alone,
majorly in Chile, Ecuador, Peru, Colombia, and Bolivia. The two major subspecies of potatoes (S. tuberosum
L.) are andigena (Andean) and tuberosum (Chilean) [22]. Different criteria are used to classify varieties of
potatoes; a standard of classification is the number of days it takes potatoes to mature from the planting day.
For instance, varieties with maturity days of 65–70 are classified as very early, 70–90 d as early, 90–100 d as
mid-season, 110–130 d as late, and more than 130 d as very late. Regardless of the maturity days, potato
varieties tend to produce higher or lower yields; those with short maturity days are often harvested early as
small, succulent potatoes and are often called ‘new potatoes, which are usually boiled for table use [22,23].
Potato varieties can also be classified according to the quality traits suited to a particular processing or
cooking method, such as frying, baking, boiling, or dehydrating [3135]. The preferred cultivars for frying
are separated into French fry (elongate) or chipping (round) types (figure 2) [36]. However, the popularity of
potato varieties differs by geographical region, and while some are common varieties globally, others are
specific to certain areas [22,23]. Varieties may be classified based on storage qualities. Some cultivars must be
consumed or processed immediately after harvest, while others maintain their starch contents longer in
storage [23].
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Figure 2. Classification of potatoes based on the quality of the tuber traits suited to processing (Texture).
Figure 3. Global potato production from 2005 to 2021.
2.3. Global production of potatoes
According to FAO (2019), potato production has grown globally by roughly 20% since 1990, but it is still
below the individual production of wheat, maize, and rice [37]. High yields per unit area are a factor that
made potatoes achieve global popularity compared to other food crops. The Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO) presents the global potato production in million tonnes/mega
tonnes (Mt) (figure 3) from 2005 to 2021 [38].
It has been suggested that growing potatoes will ensure future food security because of their remarkably
high adaptive capacity and short life span, giving efficient yields per cultivation [4,25,3943]. Figure 4
presents the percentage distribution of global potato production by continent in 2018. It can be seen that
Asia and Europe together can contribute to about 80% of global potato production [38].
Many growing areas expect an increase in potato yields, and North American parts achieve a high
production level because of many factors. For instance, scale efficiencies, mechanization, high inputs
(fertilizer, pesticides), a cool climate with ample rainfall, and a long cultivation season favor the long-season
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Figure 4. Percentage contributions of total potato production by continents in 2018.
Figure 5. Map of potato (a) production in 2020 and (b) consumption per capita in 2018 by country.
cultivars with high yields. Also, a system of production that rotates with forages and cereals improves soil
quality and eliminates disease [23]. The chart outlines the potato yields by country in 2020 [44] and potato
consumption per capita by Helgi Library [45] (figure 5). In terms of potato production, China is in the lead,
followed by India, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States of America [44].
2.3.1. China
China is responsible for about 20% of the world’s potato production [20,43,4649]. The quantity of
potatoes produced per hectare in China increases as cultivated land increases. The northern and southwest
regions produce the highest quantity of potatoes [4749]. The acreage of potatoes in China is high, 49% in
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Northern China, where single cropping exists. In Southwestern China, 39% of single and double cropping
mixes exist. Double cropping exists primarily in central China with 5%. 7% of the potatoes are in Guangxi,
Taiwan, Hainan, Fujian, and Guangdong in Southern China [43,49].
2.3.2. India
In India, potatoes are the fourth food crop after maize, wheat, and rice. India is the second-highest producer
of potatoes [24,25,5055]. In 2016, the land used to cultivate potatoes amounted to 2.13 million hectares
(Mha), yielding almost 44 Mt dry weight annually [56,57]. The planting period varies from area to area in
India; for instance, in January–February, the spring crop is planted in the hills of Uttar Pradesh and
Himachal Pradesh. In contrast, the summer crop is grown in May. In January, the spring crop is grown in
Bihar, Haryana, West Bengal, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh, but the main crop is grown in October. At the end
of June, the Kharif crop is repressed in Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, whereas the Rabi crop
is planted mid-October–November [58].
2.3.3. Russia
Russia is among the highest potato-producing countries [59,60]. FAOSTAT reported the production of
potatoes in the Russian Federation to be 30 Mt (8.2% of worldwide production) in 2013, and the harvested
area was 2.1 Mha (10.7%). The import of potatoes by Russia is rather small, with annual production that
does not exceed about 0.6 Mt between 2000 and 2010. After the extreme drought that reduced Russia’s potato
production in 2010, the highest imported potato was 1.4 Mt in 2011. Larger agricultural enterprises in Russia
since the 2000s have been increasing potato yields [59,60].
2.3.4. Ukraine
Ukraine is among the top five potato-producing countries globally, has almost half of the country’s 1.5 Mha
of potato farms with black soils of the forest-steppe zone located in central Ukraine, although the Polesye
wetlands of the north harvest the best yields [6163]. Annually, the country harvests approximately 20 Mt,
like the USA, and most are grown on a small scale for domestic consumption. Commercial production land
is only about 55 000 ha. In Ukraine, the structure of using the produced potatoes is entirely different;
26%–32% is used for food, 29%–33% for livestock feed, and up to 10% for gross production of non-food
items [61]. In 2004, production attained a record of 20.7 Mt, with a yield average of about 13 t ha1[63].
2.3.5. United States
According to Alva et al [64], the US is ranked fifth among the most prominent countries producing potatoes
globally. In 2007, the US harvested 19.9 Mt of potatoes, ranking the fifth-highest producer globally. In the
US, potatoes are harvested in the ninth and tenth month of the year [65]. Potato yields in the region range
from 27 to 36 t ha1[64]. On a large scale, potatoes are rotated with other crops, such as wheat, maize, and
vegetables, for ideal growing conditions [66]. In the US, only about one-third of the potatoes are eaten fresh
[65], and growing regions flaunt fertile, rich soil and an ideal climate appropriate for planting potatoes [67].
Countries have varying attributes and methods of cultivating and processing potatoes, such as varieties,
planting seasons, harvesting, and uses. Meanwhile, climatic variables have a significant impact on potato
production.
3. Climate change and potato yields
The effects of the changing climate on potatoes appear to be complicated, but different studies have used
varying methods for the evaluation. Elevated temperatures can result in low yields because of increased
development rates and higher respiration, depending on the temperature. Increased atmospheric carbon
dioxide (CO2) resulting in global warming will likely improve potato yields [68]. Moreover, CO2is reported
to alter the nutritional content of potato tubers. Increased CO2concentrations increase soluble starch and
sugar and reduce the tuber’s protein and zinc concentration [69,70].
3.1. Climate change
The global climate is changing and is presently a big challenge that has attracted substantial attention [20,71,
72]. GHG is an anthropogenic emission causing significant planet-warming [73], influencing the world’s
climate, and leading to climate change [74,75]. Under the sixth assessment that the IPCC
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reported in 2021, each decade has been consecutively warmer
than the previous years since 1850. The global surface temperature rose to 0.99 [0.84–1.10] C more than
1850–1900 in the twenty-first century’s first twenty years (2001–2020). However, it was elevated from 2011 to
2020 with 1.09 [0.95–1.20] C more than 1850–1900, which increases (1.59 [1.34–1.83] C) on land more
than (0.88 [0.68–1.01] C) in the ocean [74].
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Figure 6. (a) Atmospheric CO2concentration and (b) temperature under four SSPs (2005–2100).
Climate data sources are available, and they include private or government organizations [72,76].
Models generate predictions using soil, meteorological and crop data in numerical simulations. The Global
Climate Model (GCM), also known as the General Circulation Model, is a tool presently accessible to
simulate the global climate process that results from GHGs. The GCMs focus on changes in temperature and
precipitation and can be categorized into three, namely: Atmospheric—GCM (AGCM), Oceanic—GCM
(OGCM), and Atmospheric Oceanic—GCM (AOGCM) [77]. Figure 6shows the atmospheric CO2
concentrations and temperature under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) [78,79].
The susceptibility of climate is threatening the global climatic cycles and, as a result, threatening the
world food production systems, invariably affecting livelihood [80]. Climate change is a global phenomenon
impacting crop plants negatively, affecting access to food crops.
3.2. Climate change and food security
The objectives of enhancing and sustaining global food security in the agricultural sector are determined
significantly by climatic conditions. The agriculture sector is experiencing increased requirements,
competitive natural resources, and impacts of biotic (e.g. pests and diseases damages) and abiotic (e.g.
precipitation and temperature changes and intense weather variation) factors. The effects of enormous
temporal and geographic unpredictability and flexibility confound the challenge [81]. Agriculture is
susceptible to climatic and environmental situations. Globally, an average surface temperature increase from
1.4 C to 5.8 C is possible towards 2100, and there is an expectation that this warming will significantly
influence the availability of water and precipitation patterns. An increase in the variability may accompany
the precipitation changes and directly affect plant growth, development, and crop yields, along with the
estimated increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO2. Climatic condition changes initiated by GHGs
would cause a notable change in crop cultivation that could considerably impact socio-economic conditions
[82]. The balance between sources and sinks of GHG is vital to reducing climate change-related risks [80].
In 2007, the World Bank established five crucial features in which the changing climate will impact
agricultural production: precipitation changes, temperature, level of atmospheric CO2, environment
variation, and runoff surface water [83]. Temperature, as well as rainfall, has a direct effect on potato
production—furthermore, the rainfall co-influenced the soil moisture and freshwater levels as an essential
input for crop development. Still, excessive rain causes flooding, which affects the crops negatively. The soil’s
temperature and moisture content determine the growing season’s length and control the crop’s development
and water requirements [84]. Yields tend to be reduced by warming beyond a precise temperature range to
produce minimal yields. Likewise, the temperature increase obstructs the plant’s capacity to access moisture
easily. An increase in temperature evaporates the soil and increases leaf transpiration (evapotranspiration).
Evapotranspiration competes with precipitation because of increased temperature impact on water
availability, and evapotranspiration dominates. Carbon emissions, responsible for the change in climatic
conditions, may benefit agriculture by enhancing photosynthesis; however, the science of agriculture
benefitting from carbon fertilization is uncertain [83]. Adaptation strategies are essential to climate change
studies, i.e. options employed to respond to the impacts of the changing climate and vulnerability valuation.
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Studies show that changing climatic conditions generally disrupt agricultural produce cultivation and
economies [85].
3.3. Climate change impacts on potato yields
In the production of potatoes, climate change plays a vital role in determining the yields of harvested
potatoes [68,86]. Potatoes can adapt to some climate variables, such as drought, but are prone to some, such
as high humidity and temperature changes. The cultivation of potatoes and the yields rely on a location and
develop best in a remarkable, frost-free period but do not thrive with increased heat [68]. Numerous
experiments and observations quantitatively explained the yields of potatoes as a variable that depends on
the condition of the climate (e.g. temperature, solar radiation, and length of a day). High yields come under
extended photoperiods, and average temperatures produce high yields; meanwhile, the yields can be reduced
by an increased temperature at the development stage of the potato tuber [55].
In this paper, the variables considered for assessing the climatic change in potato yields are temperature,
precipitation, carbon level, and sunshine; other variables include drought, frost, salinity, and pests and
diseases. Factors such as temperature, supplied water, atmospheric carbon level, pests, and diseases are
commonly considered when assessing climate change’s impacts on potato yields [13,87105]. Climate
change effects mostly speed up potato growth, producing less yield. Meanwhile, other factors not included in
this study determine potato yields other than the climate variables listed [13,9092,97]. Other factors could
be biotic or abiotic factors. Biotic factors include pathogens, weeds, insects, and nematodes, while abiotic
factors include heat, drought, and salinity.
3.3.1. Temperature
Potato growth and yields will be negatively impacted by temperatures above 30 C. It includes physical tuber
damage, such as brownish patches, less starch breaking up in the tubers, and shortened or non-existent tuber
dormancy, which causes tubers to sprout too early. Unlike in hot weather, potatoes are temperate crops and
prefer to grow at temperatures below 25 C [13,94,105]. They can function between 25 C and 30 C, but it
is not a suitable temperature. When the temperature is between 16 C and 19 C in the development stage,
the plant will thrive if it fulfills the water requirements [86,88]. The plant development halts when the
temperature exceeds 30 C and closes the stomata for moisture conservation. Many previous studies consider
temperature more, compared to other variables, showing that high temperature impacts potato crops
negatively [17,18,37,86,87,89,100,102104,106108].
3.3.2. Drought
Potato crops thrive more in cool weather and are susceptible to water stress much more than many other
crops. The two main reasons are soil types determining how well potatoes grow and a shallow root structure
with most root parts at the top twelve inches of the soil. They grow well in soil with a low to medium capacity
to hold water. Maintaining a standard soil moisture level throughout the potato growing season gives
high-quality potatoes optimal yields. Regular irrigation is required with irregular rainfall because when the
water table drops beyond 60%–65%, the soil moisture becomes critical [95,101]. Areas presently
experiencing excess rainfall might experience a long period of drought in the future [13]. The Potato
development duration, timing, and intensity of water scarcity determine drought effects on potato plants.
Water deficiency reduces the growth rate while the potato grows, impacting the quality and yield [95]. Water
requirement, e.g. precipitation, is the second standard variable considered in the study of the climatic change
impacts on potatoes, and the effects vary by region [17,18,87,89,100,102,104,106109].
3.3.3. Precipitation
Potatoes need between 400 and 800 mm of water to thrive, depending on weather conditions and
management practices. Potato growth and development, yields, and quality will be adversely affected by the
shortage of water [13,109]. Nevertheless, excessive water from rainfall on/around developing potato plants
results in some consequences, such as the inability to control weeds caused by herbicide leaching, storage
problems, flooding of low spots that cause plant death, and disruptions of planting and harvest schedule.
Potatoes cannot respirate well when surrounded by excessive water. There is no oxygen exchange, resulting in
the decay of the tissue on the inside of the potato tubers. It forms a large black circle of dead tissue at the
center of the tuber, called blackheart, invisible until the potatoes have been cut open or during processing;
hence, it is a silent killer [95].
3.3.4. Carbon level
According to the literature, CO2is crucial for growing potatoes and positively affects their development and
growth. Many studies claim that despite increased CO2causing the greenhouse effect, it does not endanger
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the growth and development of potatoes. The primary benefit of elevated CO2to the potatoes is increased
photosynthetic rates. It increases their growth rates by deliberately enriching potatoes with increased CO2.
The potatoes could supply photosynthate to the tubers and bulk faster [37,102104,109].
3.3.5. Sunshine
Sunshine, known as solar radiation, is vital to potato germination and development. Potatoes stunt when
there is a lack of sunshine [86,87,100,104,106,107]. Sunlight absorbed by potato plant leaves is an energy
source for photosynthesis to increase its surface temperature [99]. The potential to absorb solar radiation
depends on the leaf’s area index or surface area. Potato crops are enhanced with increased solar radiation,
and the rate and quality of sunlight intercepting a canopy vary based on the season and daily cycles—Earth’s
tilting axis results in season changes to absorb sunlight [98]. The two light components passing through a
canopy are unfiltered radiation that passes and filtered radiation that is absorbed, scattered or reflected [98].
It occurs mainly during the day because photosynthesis requires sunshine [99]. Plant leaves utilize
atmospheric CO2, and the roots absorb water. Water and CO2are converted into oxygen and carbohydrates
using solar radiation. Crop biomass increases by utilizing carbohydrates from photosynthesis during plant
vegetation and reproductive growth [99].
3.3.6. Frost
Frost is a condition involving surface (air) temperature at the earth’s surface dropping to less than 0 C [97],
resulting from radiative cooling and may occur at any season of the potato development. Frost damage
affects different potato species and cultivars at different temperatures [92,97], affecting the leaves, stem and
cell organelles when it goes below 0 C despite being able to withstand temperatures slightly below 0 C.
Frost causes burns and leaves withering on foliage, and in tubers, the parts frozen on the tuber can become
liquid, forming a soft and blackened part. The frost effect on potato tubers results in tissue collapse on one
side or end of the potato tubers close to the soil’s surface. The affected tissue at the surface area dries while
the tissue under the ground remains normal [90]. Frost may cause a complete or partial foliage loss, reducing
photosynthate production and lowering potato yields [97]. Additionally, frost damage can reduce the total
cultivated area for potatoes in the following season due to seed shortage [92].
3.3.7. Salinity
Salinization is one of the challenges in global agricultural production, and it could be the salinity of
irrigation water or the soil. The salt content on the ocean surface is a crucial variable in the climate system.
Temperature as a climate variable and salinity regulate how much surface water sinks into the deep ocean,
which impacts long-term climate change. Salinity is influenced by ice melting caused by increased
temperature and river runoff, and changes vary with the rate of evaporation and precipitation. Ocean water
evaporated during the day is condensed at night as saline water on crops, determined by the rate of
evaporation and precipitation [110112]. Aggregating high sodium ions (Na+) concentration alters plant
cell functions that enhance mineral distribution changes, respiration rate, integrity loss, and cell membrane
instability. It causes a turgor pressure reduction from ion disequilibria [91]. It significantly lowers potato
yields and quality, affecting almost 20% of farmland and 33% of irrigated land [13,91]. Fewer salts
accumulate in well-drained soils than in poorly drained soils; meanwhile, as water application regularly
increases with minimal leaching, salts accumulate in the root [93].
3.3.8. Pest and diseases
Small temperature changes and elevation of atmospheric CO2contribute to the rate of pest development due
to increased vulnerability to organisms. The higher metabolism rate of insects affects the crop defence
system. Growth, crop physiology, and life cycle of the crop’s pathogens experience a direct impact. It affects
pests, yields, phenology and modifications that can result in possible plant-insect interaction changes and
the risk of pest infestations, which leads to interferences between natural and implemented biological control
processes [68,102]. Because pathogens and aphids can migrate from warmer to colder climates, any global
temperature can increase pests and diseases that affect potato plants. A temperature rise increases pest
pathogen pressure, increases vector activity with higher multiplication rates and results in an extended
growing season with high yields [68,102]. Some climatic variables contributing to the spread of severe plant
disease include elevated CO2, drought, temperature, high humidity, cyclones, heavy and unseasonal rains,
and hurricanes [102].
9
Environ. Res.: Climate 3(2024) 012001 T Adekanmbi et al
4. Assessing climate change impacts on crop yields
There are numerous ways to evaluate how the changing climate impacts crop production. Two ways outlined
in this paper are statistical and agroeconomic. Statistical and process-based methods can be used to simulate
potato yields. It is complex to get on appropriate spatial scales required in many global cropping systems
[113].
The statistical method uses regression analyses to estimate the production (profit) function to determine the
effect of weather on the yields or profits. The evaluation depends on the data, which includes observations of
various units (field, farm, county) over time [114]. It can also use the cross-sectional (or Ricardian) method
to analyze the connection between varying climate data and agricultural productivity measures (substituted
by farmland value or revenue of the total farm revenue). Other statistical methods include ANOVA and trait
correlation [115].
Analyzing using the agroeconomic method involves a combination of organizational framework, i.e. mixing
biophysical (process-based) crop models with economic models for farm-level, to assess a farmer’s potential
in responding to adaptive measures in global climatic changes. The links between the sophisticated system,
like integrated evaluations, provide the feasibility of understanding the relationship between farming and
economic sectors and feedback effects [114].
Assessment of the impacts of climate change on potatoes is vital to strategizing appropriate adaptation
methods for optimal productivity, and CSMs are excellent tools that can be employed.
4.1. An overview of potato CSMs
In assessing the growth development and the crop yields, different CSMs are helpful in analysis. CSMs are
computer programs with dynamic simulation programs that evaluate crop growth and development through
the computation of mathematical processes [116]. It is a computer language that describes the relationship of
crop development with the environment. Ideally, the models outline the dynamic method based on a
particular hypothesis to produce a structured analysis of a crop management system [117,118]. CSMs
enhance research scientists/engineers to hypothesize on prolonged results of varying agricultural
management and cropping processes in the agroecosystem. They widely assess the effects of agricultural
practice and coping mechanisms for changing climates [119122]. A model identifies the adaptation strategy
required to allow the cropping system to respond to changes possible by a model [113]. The models mimic
the growth of potatoes for a given set of inputs, such as weather, soil, and specific parameters [121]. The
potato CSM assesses factors like biomass per unit area, stage of development, nitrogen content in the canopy,
and yields that show the crop state at various stages.
Many studies utilize various potato crop models to evaluate potato yields to strategize adaptation
practices [91,123126]. Potato CSMs can be classified into diverse types, depending on the design and
purpose; for instance, model classes could be empirical, explanatory, statistical, optimizing, mechanistic,
descriptive, simulation, deterministic, static, dynamic, and stochastic models [127131] or classified based
on their origin (i.e. the country where they originated from [132]). We considered the process-based model
because it quantitatively describes ecophysiological processes to predict crop growth and development as a
function of soil–weather–crop management and is considered accurate [133,134]. This review identified
some CSMs used in potato studies (table 1).
4.2. Costs and benefits of CSMs
CSMs have evolved and advanced over the past three to four decades [182], monitoring the continuous
irreversible increase in size and the number of crops as a result of distribution and differentiation that occurs
in a plant [183]. CSMs measure the daily development of crops to estimate yields at harvest, identifying the
influence of climatic variables on crop growth and development [129,183]. CSMs are easy to come by, cheap
and fast for estimating the impacts of climate change on crop growth. Different regions and countries have
used CSMs to simulate the climate change impacts on crops, e.g [77,113,118,119,121,125,128,129,132,
134,178,183186]. However, the results are based on experimental soil, plant, weather, and management
data and mostly a long-time accumulation of data; hence, collecting and gathering the required data takes a
long time. The DSSAT model is an example of a CSM that uses soil, plant, weather, and management data to
assess the impacts of climate change on potatoes [15,19,87,100,104,106,109,124,126,187]. Hijmans [86]
estimated prospective potato yields with and without adaptation from 2010 to 2069 for 26 regions and
countries. Without adaptation practices, only Bolivia projected an increase of 8.4%; on the other hand, 25
other countries projected a decline of 12.9% to 48.3% in potato yields. Table 2shows countries’ qualitative
reviews based on solar radiation, temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2.
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Environ. Res.: Climate 3(2024) 012001 T Adekanmbi et al
Table 1. List of some widely-used potato CSMs.
Crop model Developer Year launched Application References
APSIM Agricultural Production
Systems Research Unit
1990 Nitrogen and adaptation
management
[76,107,119,
125,132,
135137]
AquaCrop Land and Water Division
of Food Agricultural
Organization
2008 Irrigation management and
yield
[76,119,125,
132,138]
CROPSYST-SYST Washington State
University
1992 Irrigation and nitrogen
management, climate
change (adaptation, CO2,
and To), and yield
[76,119,125,
132,137,139,
140]
CROPSYSTVB-
CSPOTATO
Washington State
University
1992 Nitrogen management [141143]
DAISY University of Copenhagen 1990 Irrigation and nitrogen
management and yield
[119,125,132,
137,139,144]
DSSAT-SUBSTOR Texas A and M AgriLife
Research, the University
of Florida et al
1989 Irrigation and nitrogen
management, growth,
development, climate
change (adaptation,
precipitation, CO2, and
To), and yield
[76,107,119,
125,132,137,
145148]
Expert-N-SPASS University of Hohenheim 1999 Irrigation and nitrogen
management
[119,144,149,
150]
EPIC United States Department
of Agriculture
1980 Climate change (adaptation
and To) and yield
[76,119,125,
132,137,151]
FASSET Aarhus University 1998 Regulations, management,
prices and subsidies
changes
[119,132,152]
GECROS WUR, Plant Production
Systems
2003 Genotype-specific
responses to environment
and yield
[119,153]
GLAM University of Leeds 2004 Climate change
(adaptation and CO2)
[37,76,119,
132]
INDOBLIGHTCAST Central Potato Research
Institute, Shimla, India
Year Unclear Late blight disease [119,154]
INFOCROP-
POTATO
Indian Agricultural
Research Institute
Year Unclear Nitrogen management,
growth, climate change
(Adaptation, CO2, and To),
and yield
[25,51,119,
125,155]
JHULSACAST Developer Unclear Year Unclear Late blight [119,156159]
LINTUL POTATO Kooman and Haverkort 1994 Emergence, leaf expansion,
and light interception
climate change (adaptation,
CO2, and To) yield
[119,132]
LPOTCO Developer Unclear Year Unclear Climate change
(Adaptation and To)
[119,125,160]
MADHURAM Developer Unclear Year Unclear Growth stages and yield to
evaluate direct and diffused
sunlight interception
[125,161,162]
NPOTATO WUR, Plant Production
Systems
1999 Climate change (CO2
and To)
[163,164]
POTATOS WUR, Plant Production
Systems
1999 Climate change (CO2
and To)
[160,163165]
POTATO
CALCULATOR
Potatoes New Zealand 2002–2005 Nitrogen management and
yield
[119,166,167]
REGCROP Developer Unclear Year Unclear Climate change (To) [119,168170]
SPOTCOMS Department of
Agricultural Research and
Education, India
Year Unclear Manage stress, adaptation,
and yield
[162,171,172]
SPUDSIM Agricultural Research
Service U.S. Department
of Agriculture
Year Unclear Climate change
(adaptation)
[119,173176]
(Continued.)
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Environ. Res.: Climate 3(2024) 012001 T Adekanmbi et al
Table 1. (Continued.)
Crop model Developer Year launched Application References
SSM-ICROP2 Simple Simulation
Models
1986 Growth, development and
yield
[119,177179]
STICS French National Institute
for Agricultural Research
1996 Analyze, evaluate, and
design cropping system,
nitrogen management and
yield.
[119,132,137]
WOFOST Wageningen
Environmental Research
1986 Climate change (CO2
and To)
[76,119,125,
180,181]
4.3. Decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT)
The potential impacts of the changing climate on potato cropping are assessed using various future climate
scenarios coupled with CSMs. For climate change impact assessment using CSMs, different generators of
future climate scenarios with representative concentration pathways can be considered based on availability
and accessibility [68,86]. IBSNAT (International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer)
developed DSSAT [25,87,148,189192]. It models the impacts of soil properties, weather, genotype,
management practices, water, and nitrogen dynamics [87,148]. DSSAT consists of databases, modules, and
applications driven by software to select and compare observed and predicted results. Based on weather, soil,
crop, and genotype data from databases [148,193], the model simulates crop growth, stages of development,
and yields [108]. This article examines DSSAT, a modular process-based crop model with a dynamic
simulation program that uses subroutines to simulate soil water and nitrogen processes in conjunction with
modules for various crops [146,194,195]. In more than a hundred countries, the DSSAT model has been in
use for more than two decades by academics, teachers, farmers, extension agents, consultants, and
policymakers [24]. It comprises CSMs for over forty-two crops, supported by database programs for
managing weather, soil, and planting practices and programs that initiate crop growth, plant development,
and yields [146,148]. DSSAT is the model’s interface (figure 7), where different modules simulate input data
to generate data, such as harvested yields and total yields nitrogen at harvest. The minimum datasets
required to simulate with DSSAT are weather data (such as temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation),
soil data (such as organic and nitrogen content and soil class), and management data (such as planting date,
manure, fertilizer, and tillage), in addition, are genotype coefficients (such as potential tuber growth rate, the
upper critical temperature responsible for tuber initiation) [145].
SUBSTOR, as one of the sixteen computer software application programs (modules), uses Formula
Translation (FORTRAN) language embedded within the DSSAT model to simulate the biomass in response
to environmental factors and potato yield accumulation [124,192,196]. Potatoes develop through five major
stages: sprout elongation, emergence, tuber initiation, bulking, and Maturity [189]. The potato’s five genetic
coefficients, G2, G3, P2, TC, and PD, determine how varieties react to climate change. G2 is the leaf area
expansion rate (cm2m2d1), G3 is the potential tuber growth rate (gm2d1), P2 is the tuber initiation
sensitivity to photoperiod (dimensionless), PD is an index of tuber growth to suppresses (dimensionless),
and TC is the upper critical temperature during tuber initiation (C). The varying genetic coefficients impact
biomass accumulation [17,106,109,124,197,198].
4.4. Challenges in using CSM for climate change impact assessment
Based on this literature, we identify the following gaps in research to be addressed in the future toward a
sustainable adaptive measure to potato growth and yields.
4.4.1. Data availability
There is a challenge with the data available for climate change research. CSMs require soil, weather, location,
and crop management data. Crop experiments that generate data required to set up and use models are
rarely performed, and sometimes, data are incomplete [199]. Data can be retrieved often at a cost, and
formats for retrieval can vary according to the origin and kind of data [199201]. Furthermore, data for the
same space and time scales might be scarce. Socioeconomic and physical data incompatibility are vital for
climatic modeling attempts. It happens because different agencies commonly collect data for various
purposes. Most studies considered only temperature in assessing the impacts of climate change while
referencing the CO2scenarios in their literature review due to the data limitations at the time of research
[199,202205]. Sometimes, there are faulty instruments or a lack of climate stations in some regions and
sufficient data in a variable, while other variables lack sufficient data. The challenges increase when the study
extends beyond an experimental field to a district, region or province [199]. From the literature review,
12
Environ. Res.: Climate 3(2024) 012001 T Adekanmbi et al
Table 2. A literature-based summary of climate change impacts on potato yields.
Region/Country Location Year Solar radiation Temperature Precipitation CO2Method Yield References
Northwest
China
Gansu, Qinghai Ningxia 1982–2015 3500 MJm2–3900 MJm215.6 C to 17.4 C Increase Statistical Varies [20]
North China Zhangbei, Wuchuan 2021–2100 Increase +1.4 C to +5.2 C+0.83 mm to +0.91 mm APSIM +5.5% to +51.9% [188]
China 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 22.2% [86]
India Kharagpur 2010–2099 +11 C to +25 C InfoCrop 2.5% to 11% [51]
India Bihar, Gujarat, UP,
Haryana, Tripura,
Himachal Pradesh
2001–2011 Statistical Varies [53]
India West Medinipur, Bankura,
Birbhum
2013–2015 13 C to 45 C DSSAT Decline [55]
India 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 23.1% [86]
Russia 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 24% [86]
Ukraine 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 30.3% [86]
United States of
America
Pacific Northwest 2004, 2006,
2007
14% to 20% Statistical 7% to 28% [64]
United States
America
2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 32.8% [86]
Germany 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 19.6% [86]
Bangladesh Mymensingh 2025–2114 +2.99 C to +5.32 C18.4% to +62.2% DSSAT Decline [89]
Bangladesh 2100 +5.32 C DSSAT 38.6% [108]
Bangladesh 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 25.8% [86]
Poland Próg Woznicki 2004–2013 +0.2 C to +0.4 C 85% to 111% WOFOST 38.7% [181]
Poland 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 19% [86]
United
Kingdom
Cambridge University 2050s DSSAT +2.9% to +6.2% [109]
United
Kingdom
2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 6.2% [86]
Iran Isfahan 2015–2105 489 ppm–593 ppm DSSAT 11.21% to 30.58% [87]
Iran 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 48.3% [86]
(Continued.)
13
Environ. Res.: Climate 3(2024) 012001 T Adekanmbi et al
Table 2. (Continued.)
Region/Country Location Year Solar radiation Temperature Precipitation CO2Method Yield References
Egypt Beheira, Menufia,
Gharbia, Giza, Dakahlia,
Minia
2025s
2050s
2075s
2100s
Valour DSSAT 3.98% to +45.5% [100]
Algeria Northeast Algeria 2020–2050–
2080
Desiree 3.7 C to 23.6 C 130.5 mm to 367.1 mm DSSAT Decline [124]
Peru 2040–2100 0 C to 40 C>300 mm and <800 mm 498 ppm–802 ppm DSSAT 1.8% to 25.8% [103]
Peru 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 5.7% [86]
Canada Prince Edward Island 2045–2095 Russet Burbank +1.2 C to +6.1 C+3.4% to +12.8% +2.4% to +140.9% DSSAT 6% to 80% [15]
Canada 2040–2069 +2.1% to 3.2% +0.6% to +7.7% 456 ppm–618 ppm DSSAT Decline [82]
Canada 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 15.7 [86]
Brazil 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 23.2% [86]
Belarus 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 18.8% [86]
Spain 2010–2069 +1.2 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 31.4% [86]
Romania 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 26% [86]
Bolivia 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL +8.4% [86]
Turkey 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 36.7% [86]
Lithuania 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 31.4% [86]
Netherlands 2010–2069 +0.9 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 20% [86]
Argentina 2010–2069 +1.2 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 31.4% [86]
France 2010–2069 +1.2 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 18.7% [86]
Nepal 2010–2069 +1.2 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 31.4% [86]
Columbia 2010–2069 +1.2 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 32.5% [86]
Japan 2010–2069 +1.2 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 31.4% [86]
Kazakhstan 2010–2069 +1.2 C to +3.2 C LINTUL 38.4% [86]
14
Environ. Res.: Climate 3(2024) 012001 T Adekanmbi et al
Figure 7. The DSSAT modeling system.
researchers do not commonly investigate the effect of severe climatic occurrences (e.g. hails, heat, droughts,
rainstorms, erosion) on potato yields because the variables are not commonly found in the CSMs.
Researchers mostly use Russet Burbank potato varieties to study the impacts of climate change on potato
yields since its data is often readily available.
4.4.2. Modeling tools
There are some deficiencies in the modeling tools often used for climate scenario data generation to assess
the climate change impacts on potato yields. Climate models are essential tools to understand better how
climate changes in the past compared to the future. Model performance must continuously improve by
integrating the latest chemical and physical processes technology or valuable feedback [206]. The frequently
used GCMs to generate future climate scenarios used in the DSSAT simulation of the climate change impacts
assessment is the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) used in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment
Report (TAR) and 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) from Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project phase 3 (CMIP3), and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) used in the 2014 IPCC Fifth
Assessment Report (AR5) from CMIP5 models for the DSSAT modeling. The 2021 IPCC Sixth Assessment
Report (AR6) from CMIP6 models, i.e. SSPs, is vital as the latest source of future climate scenario data for
DSSAT modeling, published in the 2021 AR6 of the IPCC [207210]. Although the latest emission scenarios
are not easily accessible or in the required format, it is important to consider the latest GCMs while running
the CSMs to derive an up-to-date result. Additionally, the combined effects of multiple climate variables are
not being assessed despite some CSMs having the interface to combine the effects; however, the reason for
not considering the combined effects has received insufficient attention, necessitating a systematic review in
another paper. Moreover, a significant number of CSMs can only utilize standard climate variables such as
temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2concentration for assessment, while some variables such as
salinity, frost, drought, and erosion cannot be considered.
4.4.3. Adaptation measures
Some adaptation strategies include adjusting to actual or predicted future climatic effects on the yields. It
increases the crop’s adaptability to climatic changes, such as temperature and intense extreme weather events.
The most common variations in management practices for adaption to climatic change are planting dates,
growth length, and water control management, which are all interdependent with technological
advancements. Utilizing other adaptation measures and multiple measures at a time is mostly not explored;
hence, exploration of further adaptation method analyses is being proposed for optimal production. Further,
assessment could be set up with a set of climate conditions and then applied outside those climate conditions.
15
Environ. Res.: Climate 3(2024) 012001 T Adekanmbi et al
5. Discussion and conclusions
The world population currently depends on the current food system for sustainability. The global food
system will determine feeding the increased population in the coming years. Meanwhile, the food system is
under the pressure of the impacts of climate change, affecting the pillars of food security (access, stability,
availability, and utilization) and causing food insecurity [5]. This article reviews the assessment of the
impacts of climate change on global potato yields to ensure food security. A CSM has the prospect of user
input data to provide solutions in assessing the climate change impacts on global crop yields to provide
possible adaptation strategies and management practices that are most influential on their growth under
varied climate conditions to ensure stability and availability of food with easy access which people can utilize.
Many CSMs can be used for various crops; for instance, DSSAT can simulate 42 crops, including wheat, corn,
canola, cassava and others (DSSAT 2022; Hoogenboom, Porter et al 2019; Jones et al 2003). Various CSMs
can simulate potato yields, considering weather, soil, and management practices data to enhance food
security. The review identifies the potato’s five developmental stages during germination, essential in
modeling potato yields with CSMs. Climate factors that influence the growth stages and development of the
potato, such as precipitation, temperature, CO2, solar radiation, frost, drought, and salinization, are crucial
in determining the potato’s growth rate. As a result, the overall growth of potatoes is affected by the distorted
variable caused by climate change. Given the literature reviewed, and the research gaps deduced, further
thorough study and validation with improving the crop variables and phenology are recommended in further
studies to fill in the research gap on assessing the impacts of climate change on potato yields using CSMs.
Data availability statement
All data that support the findings of this study are included within the article (and any supplementary
information files).
Acknowledgments
This research is sponsored by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the New
Frontiers in Research Fund, the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, the Agriculture and Agri-Food
Canada, and the Government of Prince Edward Island. The first author acknowledges the financial support
from the PEO Sisterhood (www.peointernational.org).
ORCID iDs
Toyin Adekanmbi https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3608-5838
Xiuquan Wang https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3718-3416
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