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4
2025
2022
20232
20234
5202320
GlobalSemiconductor Industry
Supply Chains
1999
DeTar, 1999
Ibid
Chip60
90
(
6
TSMC
5G/6G
CNINNOT, 2022; Allen, 2022
fabs( ”TSMC
TSMC
TSMC
TSMC ”TSMC
2020
7202320
20219
Sony Semiconductor Solutions Corporation
Calabrese, 2022; Kristy Tsun Tzu Hsu, 2022; Suzuki, 2022
TSMCMicrochip fabrication plant
12
20245
Kristy Tsun Tzu Hsu, 2022; Suzuki,
TSMC2022
TSMC
Kristy Tsun Tzu Hsu,TSMC
2022
(.
Credit Suisse
Yang & Su, 2022(.
8
TSMC
95
1.73.5
TSMCKristy Tsun Tzu Hsu, 2022(
Momoko, 2022
1987TSMC
TSMC10
Apple Inc
”TSMC
TSMC202212
US Chips32023
Hsu, 2022Act allocations
TSMC
Huawei
TSMCnolog
Integrated Circuit chips
Momoko, 2022; Swanson, 2023
Huawei
TSMCHuawei
HighSilicon
9202320
Ibid
SMIC
TSMC
HuaweiHuawei
TSMC
TSMC
Kristy Tsun
Tzu Hsu, 2022
10
Richard Nixon, 1967
1971
Richard Nixon, 1971
1972
Lawler &
Mahan, 2010
1979
Taiwan Enabling Act1979
Blackwill & Zelikow, 2021
1979
11 202320
(
ited
Kristy
Tsun Tzu Hsu, 2022
(
198217
Blackwill & Zelikow,
2021
12
1994
Greenhouse,
1995
1995
1996
Ibid
1998
Three NOs
Christopher, 1996; Broder, 1998
2001
13 202320
Blackwill & Zelikow, 2021
2002
McMillan, 2002
2002
2003
Taiwan Relations Act
, 2005
Landler, 2011; Lendon, 2020
6620201971
Thiessen, 2020 (
2017
al Defense Authorization Act
14
DF-15B تﺎﻔﺻاﻮﻣ
سأر ﻞﻤﺣ ﻰﻠﻋ ردﺎﻗ ﺎﻤﺑر
يوﻮﻧ ﻲﺑﺮﺣ
ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ هﺎﻴﻣ
ﺔﻴﻤﻴﻠﻗﻹا
ﻪﻴﺒﻳﺎﺗ
:15B - ﻎﻨﻔﻐﻧود
ﻲﺘﺴﻴﻟﺎﺑ خورﺎﺻ
ىﺪﻤﻟا ﺮﻴﺼﻗ
قﻼﻃﻹا ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻃ
ﺮﻄﻘﻟا
قﻼﻃﻹا ﺪﻨﻋ نزﻮﻟا
ﻰﺼﻗﻷا ىﺪﻤﻟا
ﺔﻟﻮﻤﺤﻟا
ﻞﻘﻨﺘﻣ/ﻖﻳﺮﻄﻟا ﻰﻠﻋ
ﺮﺘﻣ 1
ﻎﻠﻛ 6200
ﻢﻠﻛ 800
ﻎﻠﻛ 750 - 500
،ﺔﻴﻨﻴﺻ ﺔﻳﺮﻜﺴﻋ تاروﺎﻨﻣ
ﺲﻄﺴﻏأ 7 - 4
ﺔﻴﻨﻴﺼﻟا ﺦﻳراﻮﺼﻟا تارﺎﺴﻣ
ﻮﺴﺗﺎﻣ ةﺮﻳﺰﺟ
(ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ)
ﺎﻣﺎﻳﺎﻳ ةﺮﻳﺰﺟ
(نﺎﺑﺎﻴﻟا)
ﻦﻤﻨﻴﻛ ةﺮﻳﺰﺟ
(ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ)
نﺎﺘﻐﻨﻴﺑ
واﺮﻐﻧﺎﺷ
ﻮﺸﺘﻧﺎﻏ
ﺔﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻا ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا
نﺎﺑﺎﻴﻠﻟ ﺔﻳﺮﺼﺤﻟا
اﻮﻬﻨﻴﺟ
رﺎﺘﻣأ 9.1 :لﻮﻄﻟا
ﻦﻴﺼﻟا ﺮﺤﺑ
ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺠﻟا ئدﺎﻬﻟا ﻂﻴﺤﻤﻟا
ﻂﺳوﻷا ﻂﺨﻟا
ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ ﻖﻴﻀﻤﻟ
ﻢﻠﻛ 100
ﻦﻴﺼﻟا
ﺎﻬﺗاروﺎﻨﻣ ﺮﺒﻛأ ﻦﻣ ءﺰﺠﻛ ناﻮﻳﺎﺘﺑ ﺔﻄﻴﺤﻤﻟا هﺎﻴﻤﻟا ﻰﻟإ ﺔﻴﺘﺴﻴﻟﺎﺒﻟا ﻎﻨﻔﻐﻧود ﺦﻳراﻮﺻ ةﺪﻋ ﻦﻴﻜﺑ ﺖﻘﻠﻃأ
ةﺮﻳﺰﺠﻠﻟ ﻲﺳﻮﻠﻴﺑ ﻲﺴﻧﺎﻧ ﻲﻛﺮﻴﻣﻷا باﻮﻨﻟا ﺲﻠﺠﻣ ﺔﺴﻴﺋر ةرﺎﻳز ﺪﻌﺑ ﻚﻟذو ،ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﺮﻜﺴﻌﻟا
ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ قﻮﻓ ﺔﻘﻠﺤﻣ ﺦﻳراﻮﺻ ﻞﺳﺮﺗ ﻦﻴﺼﻟا
ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ
GRAPHIC NEWS زﻮﻴﻧ ﻚﻴﻓاﺮﺟ Japan’s Ministry of Defence, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence :رﺪﺼﻤﻟا
15 202320
2018
the Taiwan Assurance Act 2020
Blackwill & Zelikow, 2021
202123
Ibid
16
Lee & Lague & Blanchard, 2020(
(
Chung, 2020
17 202320
Lun Tian, 2021
Ibid
1962
Yoshihara & Holmes, 2020
18
Ibid
Blackwill & Zelikow, 2021
Kra Isthmus or Thai Canal
Ibid
19 202320
:ردﺎﺼﻤﻟا
GRAPHIC NEWS زﻮﻴﻧ ﻚﻴﻓاﺮﺟ
Global Fire Power, 2023
2,035,000
3,248
78
6.300800
4
737
169,000
ﺔﻴﺿرﻷا تاﻮﻘﻟا داﺮﻓأ عﻮﻤﺠﻣﺔﻴﺿرﻷا تاﻮﻘﻟا داﺮﻓأ عﻮﻤﺠﻣ
تﺎﻓذﺎﻗو ﺔﻠﺗﺎﻘﻣ تاﺮﺋﺎﻃتﺎﻓذﺎﻗو ﺔﻠﺗﺎﻘﻣ تاﺮﺋﺎﻃ
تﺎﺻاﻮﻏتﺎﺻاﻮﻏ
تﺎﺑﺎﺑدتﺎﺑﺎﺑد
ﻦﻴﺼﻟا
لﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ناﻮﻳﺎﺘﺑ ﺐﻟﺎﻄﺗ
“ةﺪﺣﻮﻤﻟا ﻦﻴﺼﻟا” ﺔﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﺎﻫﺮﺒﺘﻌﺗو 1949 مﺎﻌﻟا ﺬﻨﻣ
ﻲﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟا ﻦﻴﺼﻟا ﺮﺑ ﻊﻣ
،أﺰﺠﺘﻳ ﻻ ًاﺪﺣاو ًﺎﻧﺎﻴﻛ
ﻦﻴﻜﺑ تﺪﻬﻌﺗ ﺎﻤﻛ
ﺖﺤﺗ ةﺮﻳﺰﺠﻟا ﻊﺿﻮﺑ
اذإ ةﻮﻘﻟﺎﺑ ،ﻦﻴﻜﺑ ﻢﻜﺣ
ﺮﻣﻷا مﺰﻟ
ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ
ﻲﻃاﺮﻘﻤﻳﺪﻟا بﺰﺤﻟا
ﻢﻛﺎﺤﻟا ﻲﻣﺪﻘﺘﻟا
ةﺮﻳﺰﺠﻟا ﺔﻳﻮﻫ ﻢﻋﺪﻳ
.ﻦﻴﺼﻟا ﻦﻋ ﺔﻠﺼﻔﻨﻤﻟا
ﺶﻴﺟ ﺎﻬﻳﺪﻟ ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ
ﻪﻨﻜﻟو ﺮﻴﺜﻜﺑ ﺮﻐﺻأ
،ًاﺪﻴﺟ ًﺎﺒﻳرﺪﺗ برﺪﻣ
ﺔﺤﻠﺳﺄﺑ دوﺰﻣ ﻪﻤﻈﻌﻣ
ةﺪﺤﺘﻤﻟا تﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟا ﻦﻣ
ب
ﺰﺤﻟ
ا
ﺪﻘ
ﺘﻟ
ا
ﻢ
ﻋﺪ
ﻳ
ﻔﻨ
ﻟ
ا
ﻪﻴﺒﻳﺎﺗ
ﻮﺸﺗﻮﻓ
ﻮﺴﺗﺎﻣ ةﺮﻳﺰﺟ
(ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ)
ﻦﻤﻨﻴﻛ
(ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ)
ﻦﻴﺼﻟا
ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ ﻖﻴﻀﻣ
ﻞﺻﺎﻔﻟا ﻂﺨﻟا ﻢﻠﻛ 100
ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ
ناﻮﻳﺎﺗو ﻦﻴﺼﻟا ﻦﻴﺑ ﺔﻳﺮﻜﺴﻌﻟا ﺔﻬﺟاﻮﻤﻟا
20
Hunzeker & Lanoszka, 2018
(
Greer, 2018; Sweeney,2020
Toshihara and Holmes, 2020; Cancian, 2020; Blackwill &(.
Zelikow, 2021; Beckley, 2020
Ryukyu
21 202320
Ibid
Holmes, 2019
752020
Nachman, 2020
79.7
63Ibid
(.201919.9
2020
22
2.5
Leng, 2020; Hale, 20252023
2022;
.2020
2021
80
170
20
202565
Republic of China, 2020;
2020; Blackwill & Zelikow, 2021
23 202320
Sunflower 2014
ment with China
2016
Bush, 2016
Blackwill & Zelikow, 2021(.
76.9
85.3
24
land Affairs Council, 2020
61
601
68
85
79
35
52
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
ﻦﻳﺬﻟا ﻦﻴﻴﻧاﻮﻳﺎﺘﻟا ﺔﺒﺴﻧ
ىﻮﻗأ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺳ تﺎﻗﻼﻋ نﻮﻤﻋﺪﻳ
ﻦﻳﺬﻟا ﻦﻴﻴﻧاﻮﻳﺎﺘﻟا ﺔﺒﺴﻧ
ىﻮﻗأ ﺔﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗا تﺎﻗﻼﻋ نﻮﻤﻋﺪﻳ
ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا تﺎﻗﻼﻌﻟا ﺰﻳﺰﻌﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺻﺎﺧ ،ﻦﻴﺼﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻧرﺎﻘﻣ ةﺪﺤﺘﻤﻟا تﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟا ﻮﺤﻧ ﻦﻴﻴﻧاﻮﻳﺎﺘﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺑﺎﺠﻳإ تﺎﻫﺎﺠﺗا كﺎﻨﻫ
ﻦﻳﺬﻟا ﻦﻴﻴﻧاﻮﻳﺎﺘﻟا ﺔﺒﺴﻧ
ﺪﻳﺆﻣ هﺎﺠﺗا ﻢﻬﻳﺪﻟ
ﻦﻴﺼﻟاةﺪﺤﺘﻤﻟا تﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟا
ﺔﻴﻜﻳﺮﻣﻷا ةﺪﺤﺘﻤﻟا تﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟاو ﻦﻴﺼﻟا ﻮﺤﻧ ﻦﻴﻴﻧاﻮﻳﺎﺘﻟا تﺎﻫﺎﺠﺗا
73.4
85
& Huang, 2020
Ibid
25 202320
53.260
20216
1
.
26
ئدﺎﻬﻟا ﻂﻴﺤﻤﻟاو ﺎﻴﺳآ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﺮﻜﺴﻌﻟا ىﻮﻘﻠﻟ ﺔﻧرﺎﻘﻣ
2.035.000 :ﻦﻴﺼﻟا
نﺎﺑﺎﻴﻟا
247.000
ﺔﻴﺑﻮﻨﺠﻟا ﺎﻳرﻮﻛ
555.000
(رﻻود رﺎﻴﻠﻤﻟﺎﺑ) 2022 مﺎﻋ ﻲﻓ يﺮﻜﺴﻌﻟا قﺎﻔﻧﻻا ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟإ
60.000 :ﺎﻴﻟاﺮﺘﺳأ
169.000 :ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ
رﻻود رﺎﻴﻠﻣ 48 :نﺎﺑﺎﻴﻟا
رﻻود رﺎﻴﻠﻣ 16 :ناﻮﻳﺎﺗ
رﻻود رﺎﻴﻠﻣ 34 :ﺎﻴﻟاﺮﺘﺳأرﻻود رﺎﻴﻠﻣ 43 :ﺔﻴﺑﻮﻨﺠﻟا ﺎﻳرﻮﻛ
رﻻود رﺎﻴﻠﻣ 141
رﻻود رﺎﻴﻠﻣ 242 ﻦﻴﺼﻟا
ﺪﻨﻬﻟا
ﺎﻴﺳور
ﻂﻴﺤﻤﻟا
ئدﺎﻬﻟا
ﻂﻴﺤﻤﻟا
يﺪﻨﻬﻟا
Military Balance 2023 :ردﺎﺼﻤﻟا
GRAPHIC NEWS زﻮﻴﻧ ﻚﻴﻓاﺮﺟ
ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ةﺪﺤﺘﻤﻟا تﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟا ءﺎﻔﻠﺤﻟ ﻞﻤﺘﺤﻤﻟا ﻦﻣ ،ﺔﺤﻠﺴﻤﻟا ﺎﻬﺗاﻮﻗ ﺚﻳﺪﺤﺗو ﻊﻴﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻴﺼﻟا راﺮﻤﺘﺳا ﻊﻣ
ﺔﻳﺮﻜﺴﻌﻟا ﻢﻬﺗارﺪﻗ ﺚﻴﺣ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳاﺰﺘﻣ ﻞﻜﺸﺑ ﺮﻄﺨﻠﻟ ﻦﻴﺿﺮﻌﻣ اﻮﺤﺒﺼُﻳ نأ ئدﺎﻬﻟا ﻂﻴﺤﻤﻟاو ﺎﻴﺳآ
25000 = ﺔﻳﻮﺠﻟا تاﻮﻘﻟاو ﺔﻳﺮﺤﺒﻟاو ﺶﻴﺠﻟا :نﻮﻄﺸﻨﻟا نﻮﻳﺮﻜﺴﻌﻟا داﺮﻓﻷا
27 202320
2020
Theile, 2022
2013
2018
McBride & Berman
& Chatzky,
2025
Ibid
28
AIDDATA
1002021
Gelpern & Horn &22
others, 2021
2022
Ibid
2020
702020
29 202320
2020 & Huang, 2020
30
31 202320
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