Preprints and early-stage research may not have been peer reviewed yet.
Abstract
Joseph Fourier discussed the temperature of the earth in two similar memoires (reviews) in 1824 and 1827. An important and long neglected part of this work is his description of the time dependence of the surface energy transfer. In particular, he was able to explain the seasonal time delays or phase shifts between the peak solar flux and the subsurface temperature response using his theory of heat published in 1822. This is clear evidence for a non-equilibrium thermal response to the solar flux. Diurnal and seasonal phase shifts occur in both the ocean and land temperature records. These phase shifts provide important additional information about the time dependent energy transfer processes that determine the surface temperature. Unfortunately, starting with the work of Pouillet in 1836, this time dependence was neglected and replaced by an equilibrium average climate. It was assumed, incorrectly that the surface temperature could be determined using average values for just the solar and IR flux terms. This approach created CO2 induced global warming as a mathematical artifact in simplistic equilibrium air column model used by Arrhenius in 1896. Physical reality was abandoned in favor of mathematical simplicity. The equilibrium assumption is still the foundation of the fraudulent climate models in use today.
The earth is a rotating water planet with an atmosphere that has an IR radiation field. At the surface, the downward LWIR flux from the lower troposphere interacts with the upward LWIR flux from the surface to establish an exchange energy. This limits the net LWIR cooling flux to the emission into the atmospheric LWIR transmission window. In order to dissipate the absorbed solar heat, the surface must warm up so that the excess heat is removed by moist convection (evapotranspiration). The phase shifts occur because it takes time for the heat to flow into and out of the surface layers and change the surface temperature. Over land, the surface heating is localized and almost all of the absorbed solar heat is dissipated within the same diurnal cycle. As the surface cools later in the day, there is a convection transition temperature at which the surface and surface air temperatures equalize. Convection stops and the surface continues to cool more slowly overnight by net LWIR emission. The convection transition temperature is reset each day by the local weather system passing through. Over the oceans, the bulk temperature increases until the excess absorbed solar heat is dissipated by wind driven evaporation (latent heat flux). The upper limit to the ocean surface temperature found in the equatorial warm pools is near 30 °C. In many parts of the world, the prevailing weather systems form over the oceans and then move over land. This couples the ocean surface temperatures to the weather station record through the changes to the convection transition temperature. Both the seasonal phase shift and longer term ocean oscillations are coupled through this process. The dominant term in the global mean temperature record is the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The 1940 AMO peak has long been ignored in the ‘attribution’ of the observed climate warming to CO2.
In order to move beyond the pseudoscience of radiative forcings, feedbacks and climate sensitivity to CO2 it is necessary to follow Fourier and restore the time dependence to the surface energy transfer. A change in flux produces a change in the rate of cooling of a thermal reservoir, not a change in temperature.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
Climate change is the long term trend in weather patterns, often determined over 30 years. However, the focus on long term averages obscures those underlying causes of climate change that reside in the short term diurnal and seasonal variations in the surface energy transfer. With this book, we seek simplicity in the form of well-defined control mechanisms in the complexity of the energy transfer processes that determine the surface temperature. We propose that there is a strong regulatory mechanism built into the diurnal cycle that limits the change of the surface temperature over a single day. We focus on the time dependent energy transfer processes at the land-air and ocean-air interfaces and emphasize the interactive nature of the four main flux terms that determine the surface temperature. This approach is based on concepts derived from complexity (or chaos) theory to describe the dynamic equilibrium state. We demonstrate that such a control mechanism exists for both the land and ocean temperatures through the analysis of selected data sets that illustrate different aspects of the surface energy transfer. We also demonstrate the role of the ocean in climate change through the coupling of the ocean oscillations to the land surface temperatures and show that the observed increase of approximately 140 parts per million in the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration since the start of the Industrial Revolution cannot cause climate change.
There was an overwhelming scientific consensus in the 1970s that the Earth was heading into a period of significant cooling. The possibility of anthropogenic warming was relegated to a minority of the papers in the peer-reviewed literature.
A dynamic, coupled thermal reservoir description of the Earth's atmospheric energy transfer processes is presented. Solar heat is stored and released by four coupled reservoirs, the land, the oceans and the upper and lower troposphere. In addition to the temperature, there are three other important parameters need to be considered. The first is the thermal gradient, the second is the interaction length and the third is the time delay or phase shift between the incident flux and reservoir thermal response. The Earth's climate is stabilized by the heat stored in these thermal reservoirs, particularly the oceans and the lower troposphere up to 2 km. Almost all of the downward long wave infrared (LWIR) flux reaching the surface originates in the lower troposphere. The dominant energy transfer process within the troposphere is moist convection. At night, the lower troposphere acts as a thermal blanket that slows the surface cooling. The upper troposphere cools continuously by LWIR emission to space. A change in temperature requires a change in the heat stored in the reservoir that has to be calculated using the heat capacity and the time dependent flux balance. The LWIR flux cannot be separated and used to define a change in 'average surface temperature' using blackbody theory.
A number of published papers and openly avail-able data on sea level changes, glacier retreat, freezing/break-up dates of rivers, sea ice retreat, tree-ring observations, ice cores and changes of the cosmic-ray intensity, from the year 1000 to the present, are studied to examine how the Earth has recovered from the Little Ice Age (LIA). We learn that the recovery from the LIA has proceeded continuously, roughly in a linear manner, from 1800-1850 to the present. The rate of the recovery in terms of temperature is about 0.5°C/100 years and thus it has important im-plications for understanding the present global warming. It is suggested on the basis of a much longer period covering that the Earth is still in the process of recovery from the LIA; there is no sign to indicate the end of the recovery before 1900. Cosmic-ray intensity data show that solar activity was related to both the LIA and its re-covery. The multi-decadal oscillation of a period of 50 to 60 years was superposed on the linear change; it peaked in 1940 and 2000, causing the halting of warming temporarily after 2000. These changes are natural changes, and in order to determine the contribution of the manmade greenhouse effect, there is an urgent need to identify them correctly and accurately and re-move them from the present global warm-ing/cooling trend.
Recent developments in observational near-surface air temperature and
sea-surface temperature analyses are combined to produce HadCRUT4, a new
data set of global and regional temperature evolution from 1850 to the
present. This includes the addition of newly digitized measurement data,
both over land and sea, new sea-surface temperature bias adjustments and
a more comprehensive error model for describing uncertainties in
sea-surface temperature measurements. An ensemble approach has been
adopted to better describe complex temporal and spatial
interdependencies of measurement and bias uncertainties and to allow
these correlated uncertainties to be taken into account in studies that
are based upon HadCRUT4. Climate diagnostics computed from the gridded
data set broadly agree with those of other global near-surface
temperature analyses. Fitted linear trends in temperature anomalies are
approximately 0.07°C/decade from 1901 to 2010 and 0.17°C/decade
from 1979 to 2010 globally. Northern/southern hemispheric trends are
0.08/0.07°C/decade over 1901 to 2010 and 0.24/0.10°C/decade over
1979 to 2010. Linear trends in other prominent near-surface temperature
analyses agree well with the range of trends computed from the HadCRUT4
ensemble members.