ArticlePDF Available

Abstract and Figures

Purpose: This article introduces an innovative interval method to evaluate Armenia's export dynamics in uncertain economic contexts. Theoretical Framework: Focusing on export forecasts and interval forecasts, this research addresses the dynamic nature of economic processes, enhancing accuracy in assessing economic indicators during uncertainty. Methodology: We apply the interval approach to assess Armenia's exports, particularly in the EAEU market versus the global market. We analyze the effectiveness of export-oriented scenarios amid uncertainty. Findings: Our analysis shows that the EAEU market offers more favorable export growth compared to the global market during uncertainty. The interval method significantly improves forecast accuracy. We emphasize the importance of prioritizing trade relations with specific countries and the economic significance of finished product exports. Research, Practical & Social Implications: This research provides insights into Armenia's export-oriented growth prospects and offers a practical guide for policymakers. It underscores the significance of modernization, collaboration, and economic competitiveness, particularly in smaller economies. Originality/Value: This article introduces the interval method for export dynamics in Armenia. It adds value by advocating targeted trade strategies and emphasizing economic policy focused on finished product exports during uncertain times.
Content may be subject to copyright.
Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. |Miami, v. 8 | n. 10| p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023.
1
NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY: AN INTERVAL METHOD TO UNCOVER EXPORT
DYNAMICS INSIGHTS FROM THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA
Ashot Tavadyan
A
, Aghasi Tavadyan
B
ARTICLE INFO
ABSTRACT
Purpose: This article introduces an innovative interval method to evaluate Armenia's
export dynamics in uncertain economic contexts.
Theoretical Framework: Focusing on export forecasts and interval forecasts, this
research addresses the dynamic nature of economic processes, enhancing accuracy in
assessing economic indicators during uncertainty.
Methodology: We apply the interval approach to assess Armenia's exports,
particularly in the EAEU market versus the global market. We analyze the
effectiveness of export-oriented scenarios amid uncertainty.
Findings: Our analysis shows that the EAEU market offers more favorable export
growth compared to the global market during uncertainty. The interval method
significantly improves forecast accuracy. We emphasize the importance of prioritizing
trade relations with specific countries and the economic significance of finished
product exports.
Research, Practical & Social Implications: This research provides insights into
Armenia's export-oriented growth prospects and offers a practical guide for
policymakers. It underscores the significance of modernization, collaboration, and
economic competitiveness, particularly in smaller economies.
Originality/Value: This article introduces the interval method for export dynamics in
Armenia. It adds value by advocating targeted trade strategies and emphasizing
economic policy focused on finished product exports during uncertain times.
Doi: https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i10.3777
Article history:
Received 03 July 2023
Accepted 04 October 2023
Keywords:
Export-Oriented Growth;
Uncertainty;
Interval Method;
Forecasting.
NAVEGANDO NA INCERTEZA: UM MÉTODO DE INTERVALO PARA REVELAR A DINÂMICA
DAS EXPORTAÇÕES PERSPECTIVAS DA REPÚBLICA DA ARMÉNIA
RESUMO
Objetivo: Este artigo apresenta um método de intervalo inovador para avaliar a dinâmica das exportações da
Arménia em contextos económicos incertos.
Enquadramento teórico: Centrando-se nas previsões de exportações e nas previsões intervalares, esta
investigação aborda a natureza dinâmica dos processos económicos, melhorando a precisão na avaliação dos
indicadores económicos em tempos de incerteza.
Metodologia: Aplicamos a abordagem de intervalo para avaliar as exportações da Arménia, especialmente no
mercado da EAEU em comparação com o mercado global. Analisamos a eficácia de cenários orientados para a
exportação em meio à incerteza.
Conclusões: A nossa análise mostra que o mercado da EAEU oferece um crescimento das exportações mais
favorável do que o mercado global em tempos de incerteza. O método de intervalo melhora significativamente a
precisão das previsões. Destacamos a importância de priorizar as relações comerciais com países específicos e a
relevância económica das exportações de produtos acabados.
A
Doctor of Sciences. Professor. Russian-Armenian University. Armenia.
E-mail: ashot.tavadyan@rau.am Orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2335-4501
B
PhD in Economics. Associate Professor. Russian-Armenian University. Armenia.
E-mail: a@tavadyan.com Orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1644-6205
Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. | Miami, v. 8 | n. 10 | p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023.
2
Tavadyan, A., Tavadyan, A. (2023)
Navigating Uncertainty: an Interval Method to Uncover Export Dynamics Insights from the Republic of Armenia
Pesquisa, implicações práticas e sociais: Esta investigação fornece informações sobre as perspectivas de
crescimento orientado para as exportações da Arménia e oferece orientação prática para os decisores políticos.
Sublinhamos a importância da modernização, da colaboração e da competitividade económica, especialmente nas
economias mais pequenas.
Originalidade/Valor: Este artigo apresenta o método de intervalo para analisar a dinâmica das exportações na
Arménia. Acrescenta valor ao defender estratégias comerciais específicas e ao enfatizar a política económica
centrada nas exportações de produtos acabados em tempos de incerteza.
Palavras-chave: Crescimento Orientado para as Exportações, Incerteza, Método Intervalar, Previsão.
NAVEGANDO LA INCERTIDUMBRE: UN MÉTODO DE INTERVALO PARA DESVELAR LA
DINÁMICA DE LAS EXPORTACIONES PERSPECTIVAS DE LA REPÚBLICA DE ARMENIA
RESUMEN
Objetivo: Este artículo presenta un innovador método de intervalo para evaluar la dinámica de las exportaciones
de Armenia en contextos económicos inciertos.
Marco teórico: Enfocándonos en los pronósticos de exportación y los pronósticos de intervalo, esta investigación
aborda la naturaleza dinámica de los procesos económicos, mejorando la precisión en la evaluación de los
indicadores económicos en momentos de incertidumbre.
Metodología: Aplicamos el enfoque de intervalo para evaluar las exportaciones de Armenia, particularmente en
el mercado de la UEEA en comparación con el mercado global. Analizamos la efectividad de escenarios orientados
a la exportación en medio de la incertidumbre.
Conclusiones: Nuestro análisis muestra que el mercado de la UEEA ofrece un crecimiento de las exportaciones
más favorable que el mercado global durante tiempos de incertidumbre. El método de intervalo mejora
significativamente la precisión de las previsiones. Destacamos la importancia de priorizar las relaciones
comerciales con países específicos y la relevancia económica de las exportaciones de productos terminados.
Investigación, implicaciones prácticas y sociales: Esta investigación proporciona información sobre las
perspectivas de crecimiento orientado a las exportaciones de Armenia y ofrece una guía práctica para los
responsables de la formulación de políticas. Subraya la importancia de la modernización, la colaboración y la
competitividad económica, especialmente en las economías más pequeñas.
Originalidad/Valor: Este artículo presenta el método de intervalo para analizar la dinámica de las exportaciones
en Armenia. Agrega valor al abogar por estrategias comerciales específicas y enfatizar la política económica
centrada en las exportaciones de productos terminados en tiempos de incertidumbre.
Palabras clave: Crecimiento Orientado a las Exportaciones, Incertidumbre, Método de Intervalo, Previsión.
INTRODUCTION
Enhancing the competitiveness of a nation's economy stands as one of its fundamental
objectives. Central to this pursuit is the imperative of fostering export growth, a critical factor
for bolstering national economic competitiveness. This imperative is particularly vital for
countries characterized by small, transforming economies. In the current landscape, where the
uncertainty factor exerts a growing influence on economic dynamics, it becomes imperative to
delineate the pivotal tasks that must be addressed to fully harness the potential for economic
expansion.
At the forefront of these tasks lies the augmentation of exports, with a particular
emphasis on the export of finished products boasting the highest added value. Failure to
accomplish a set of priority objectives related to product exports carries the inherent risk of
severely impeding the export-oriented trajectory of economic growth. In the face of mounting
Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. | Miami, v. 8 | n. 10 | p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023.
3
Tavadyan, A., Tavadyan, A. (2023)
Navigating Uncertainty: an Interval Method to Uncover Export Dynamics Insights from the Republic of Armenia
uncertainty, seizing opportunities for economic collaboration becomes paramount. This is
especially true for countries undergoing economic transformation, as they must ascertain the
most plausible scenario for augmenting exports of finished products, identify avenues for
improving trade balance, and fine-tune economic policy priorities to ensure sustainable
progress.
In the current economic landscape, one of the fundamental goals of any country is to
increase the competitiveness of its national economy. Export growth plays a pivotal role in
achieving this objective, particularly for countries with small transforming economies. Given
the escalating influence of uncertainty on economic processes, it becomes crucial to identify
and address the critical tasks that must be resolved to fully realize the potential for economic
growth. Among these tasks, the growth of exports, specifically finished products with the
highest added value, holds a paramount position.
Failure to fulfill a set of priority tasks aimed at addressing the challenges associated
with product exports carries a high risk of significantly undermining the export-oriented
scenario of economic growth. In the face of mounting uncertainty, it is imperative for a country,
particularly one with a transforming economy, to determine the most probable scenario for
increasing exports of finished products, explore avenues for improving the trade balance, and
adjust economic policy priorities accordingly.
LITERATURE REVIEW
The study of uncertainty bands and interval forecasts is a fundamental topic in
economics, as it provides insights into the unpredictability of economic processes and the
challenges of economic forecasting. The importance of the uncertainty factor was noted by S.
Armstrong in 2001, and S. Makridakis and M. Hibon in 2017, have supported this conclusion
by demonstrating that the more complex the economic model, the worse the forecast of
economic processes.
Other studies have also investigated the uncertainty factor in economic forecasting. For
example, Gilboa (2009) argued that decision-making under uncertainty involves considering
the multiple possible outcomes of a given decision, rather than relying on a single point forecast.
Similarly, Maowia (2007) emphasized the importance of probabilistic assessments of economic
processes, which can help to capture the uncertainty and volatility of economic indicators.
Silver (2012) suggested that forecasts often do not provide a more flexible and realistic
assessment of economic processes. Uncertainty cannot be quantified since there are unknowns
Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. | Miami, v. 8 | n. 10 | p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023.
4
Tavadyan, A., Tavadyan, A. (2023)
Navigating Uncertainty: an Interval Method to Uncover Export Dynamics Insights from the Republic of Armenia
which calls for whole new managerial approaches, coping mechanisms, and entrepreneurial
impulses (Kalogiannidis, et al., 2023). Meanwhile, Mester (2016) highlighted the challenges of
predicting extreme events in the economy, which can be difficult or even impossible to forecast
using traditional forecasts. Kohn (2017) concluded that forecasts with probabilistic assessments
can contribute to a more accurate and nuanced understanding of the possible dynamics of
economic processes, and can improve decision-making under uncertainty. Poloz (2022) has
noted that a future with greater economic volatility means that things could turn out either worse
or better than we expect and that the range of possible outcomes will expand, the greater the
uncertainty between cause and effect, the wider the range of possible economic outcomes. In
the context of increasing globalization, the uncertainty of the economic situation should be
taken into account. The uncertainty of the environment implies the impossibility of
planning certain developments (Kulinich et al., 2023).
Jens Beckert and Richard Bronk (2018) noticed that the past is not necessarily a good
guide to uncertain futures. Standard economic models cannot handle genuinely uncertain
futures. To understand decision-making in such conditions requires an entirely new model of
economic reasoning. Longer time horizons imply greater forecast uncertainty.
Taken together, these studies leads to the conclusion that it is important to forecast and
evaluate economic indicators within an uncertainty bands, rather than relying on rigid forecasts
that may not reflect the true complexity and volatility of economic processes. These studies
provide valuable insights into the significance of uncertainty factors in economic forecasting.
However, more research is needed to develop rational methods of regulating economic
processes under uncertainty. Based on our research, considering uncertainty and enhancing the
forecast's accuracy requires the inclusion of economic indicators, such as exports, within an
interval. Decision-making that considers the uncertainty bands entails the study of economic
process scenario’s while accounting for the band’s uncertainty factor, which enhances the
forecast’s probability (Tavadyan, 2022). The current paper shows role of uncertainty bands and
interval forecasts when assessing the exports growth.
Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. | Miami, v. 8 | n. 10 | p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023.
5
Tavadyan, A., Tavadyan, A. (2023)
Navigating Uncertainty: an Interval Method to Uncover Export Dynamics Insights from the Republic of Armenia
METHODOLOGY
Research of Interval Method for Analyzing Economic Processes
Interval forecasts can significantly increase the probability of accurately assessing
indicators under conditions of uncertainty, while simultaneously providing an opportunity to
narrow down the uncertainty interval. However, they cannot eliminate uncertainty by turning
the interval into a point estimate. An overlap can be purely accidental, like a shot in the dark.
Thus, decision making amounts to the determination of the most possible minimal uncertainty
interval for key indicators and establishing scenarios for economic development with their
implementation methods.
The diagnosis of the minimal interval of an economic indicator, including its extreme
values, and possible consequences when obtaining such values is no less important than the
forecast itself. When carrying out an interval forecast of an indicator, its diagnosis is also
necessary. The utility of the forecast depends on the interval boundsthe less, the better. It
also depends on how accurate the estimates of the possible consequences in case of obtaining
results outside the interval are.
Possible, albeit unlikely, deviations from the uncertainty interval should be evaluated.
If the consequences are significant when the economic indicator exits the uncertainty interval,
then the economic system is fragile. In this case, particular outcomes can often be successful,
but success will be unstable and short-lived. Let’s say a monetary policy may be successful at
first glance. However, if serious issues arise with the unlikely possibility of inflation or the
national currency exiting their respected intervals, then such an economic policy, of course,
cannot be considered viable. Such circumstances would inevitably have a negative impact on
the country's exports. If a study of the uncertainty interval does cover only mundane situations,
without considering the probability of exiting the interval, which may have significant
implications, there is a clear possibility of a serious setback, even a failure of the monetary
policy.
Shortening the forecast interval may be justifiable if it does not result in a significant
decrease in the probability of fulfilling the assessed interval. However, aiming for precise
forecasts, especially in crises, significantly reduces the fulfillment probability and does not
contribute to the creation of a mechanism for adjusting an economic policy. Doing a precise
forecast is like trying to pinpoint what is ever-changing. In crises, the uncertainty interval
sharply increases, and it is important to have several scenarios for the development of any
economy, considering their implementation.
Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. | Miami, v. 8 | n. 10 | p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023.
6
Tavadyan, A., Tavadyan, A. (2023)
Navigating Uncertainty: an Interval Method to Uncover Export Dynamics Insights from the Republic of Armenia
The presentation of programs for years ahead has little value because the uncertainty
intervals expand when economic volatility increases, forming uncertainty bands. The rate of
change in the world has increased; the economic situation has become highly volatile. It is
essentially impossible to present sufficiently accurate long-term programs. It is advisable to
establish a direction for economic development and implement targeted programs aimed at
fostering export growth, particularly in the realm of finished products. These measures are
crucial for improving the overall economic situation.
Any economy is a dynamic, low-validity system, and the minimal intervals are
acceptable only in the short run. The larger the span of the forecast, the wider the uncertainty
interval of the most probable indicator values. The uncertainty band over time tends to expand
significantly. Depending on the rate of expansion of the uncertainty band, forecasts become of
little value; in fact, the formulation of its range after a certain time loses its practical meaning.
Besides, for different indicators, the expansion process has its specifics.
Business cycles are in an uncertainty band. Moreover, the phase of cycles cannot be
determined clearly. The bands, within which the business cycles are fitted, are presented over
time in Figure 1. The projections of business cycles are becoming progressively provisional
because economic crises are increasingly unpredictable both in time and in depth. The
economic indicator varies in an uncertainty band over time, wherein various scenarios are
possible.
Figure 1. Uncertainty bands containing economic cycles
Prepared by authors (2023)
Economic processes essentially have low validity; different and opposite scenarios may
develop with wide variations of the uncertainty band. The further into the future, the larger the
Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. | Miami, v. 8 | n. 10 | p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023.
7
Tavadyan, A., Tavadyan, A. (2023)
Navigating Uncertainty: an Interval Method to Uncover Export Dynamics Insights from the Republic of Armenia
range of all possible variations of the uncertainty band. This is the nature of the economy and
any low-validity system. In a crisis, the uncertainty interval expands sharply, significantly
increasing the range of the uncertainty band.
Amidst uncertainty, maintaining economic homeostasis, which entails sustainable
development without significant disruptions, becomes the foremost factor in ensuring economic
security. The ability to withstand threats is a vital precondition for economic progress.
Consequently, responding to indicators that signal a potential breach in economic security
assumes paramount importance. Such indicators may comprise a sharp decline in exports, an
increase in the trade deficit and unemployment rates, depreciation of the national currency, and
rising inflation. Given the dynamic nature of economic indicators, recognizing the presence of
an uncertainty band in their assessment facilitates adjustments in forecasting.
The export-led growth scenario holds significant importance for small economies as it
serves as a catalyst for the welfare of the population. The development of export sectors plays
a pivotal role in fostering economic growth and diversification, as highlighted in a World Bank
report. Export competitiveness offers small countries the opportunity to earn foreign exchange,
access larger markets, and acquire technological knowledge through trade (Ianchovichina &
Lundstrom Gable, 2009). In this scenario, the focus is on transitioning national economies
towards new trajectories, specifically by emphasizing the growth of exports in finished
products. This strategic shift aims to improve the trade balance, which serves as a crucial factor
for augmenting the overall GDP and generating significant employment opportunities.
It is essential for small economies that the ratio of exports of goods and services to GDP
exceeds 50 percent. Moreover, the number of finished goods that have high added value should
prevail in exports:
Exports to GDP ≥ 50%.
In countries where the population is less than 10 million and GDP per capita is well
above the average, the exports to GDP ratio has been 56 percent for Austria, 66 percent for
Switzerland, 56 percent for Denmark, 176 percent for Singapore and 122 percent for Ireland.
This data is the average of the recent 10 years.
Economic policy should undoubtedly focus on significantly increasing export
opportunities and improving the state of the trade balance. This objective necessitates the
development of appropriate strategies, standards, and methods to effectively pursue a
coordinated monetary and fiscal policy. The factor of uncertainty, particularly in the face of
Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. | Miami, v. 8 | n. 10 | p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023.
8
Tavadyan, A., Tavadyan, A. (2023)
Navigating Uncertainty: an Interval Method to Uncover Export Dynamics Insights from the Republic of Armenia
significant fluctuations in the exchange rate and heightened dynamism in economic processes,
exerts a profound influence on the dynamics of economic processes, including exports, and the
feasibility of their forecasting.
During crisis situations, a multitude of new factors emerge, the consequences of which
are often difficult to assess and quantify, thereby significantly widening the uncertainty interval.
This underscores the need to provide interval forecasts encompassing diverse ranges. It is
essential that these forecasts consider random events that directly impact both the interval's
width and the reliability of the forecasts.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Results of Forecast Intervals of Armenian Exports
We have conducted an assessment and forecast of Armenia's exports using the interval
approach developed by our team to account for uncertainty factors. It is important to note that
these forecast intervals depend on both the level of uncertainty and the specific economic
development scenarios.
Taking the uncertainty factor into account, we have projected Armenia's total exports in
its primary trade directions. This assessment encompasses export dynamics to the EU, EAEU,
China, Georgia, Iran, and Arab countries during 2023 representing 92.1% of Armenia's total
exports. Additionally, we have employed a modified integrated autoregressive moving average
model (AUTO.ARIMA) (Hyndman & Athanasopoulos, 2015), alongside the stlm model
(briefly described below). Our forecasts are presented within an interval framework,
acknowledging the significant influence of global uncertainty factors, and rely on data from the
United Nations' international trade statistics database.
C
C
The data for the forecast, the forecast code, and the plot code can be found by following this link:
https://github.com/tavad/exports_forecast/
Detailed export forecasts for Armenia can be found at the following address
https://tavad.shinyapps.io/exports_forecast/
Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. | Miami, v. 8 | n. 10 | p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023.
9
Tavadyan, A., Tavadyan, A. (2023)
Navigating Uncertainty: an Interval Method to Uncover Export Dynamics Insights from the Republic of Armenia
Figure 2 Armenia’s Exports forecast with main trading partners
Actual data from UN Comtrade, Forecasts prepared by authors (2023)
In 2022, Armenia witnessed a remarkable nearly threefold increase (190.5%) in exports
to the EAEU. This surge can be attributed mainly to sanctions imposed on Russia, the largest
country within the EAEU. Armenia, as an EAEU member, enjoys the freedom to engage in
trade with other Union members. Armenia's exports to the EAEU are characterized by
diversification, with a focus on finished goods. The sanctions created challenges for European
corporations seeking re-entry into the vast Russian market, prompting a redirection of Russian
demand including towards the Armenian market. Despite the substantial growth observed in
2022, which constituted 47.3% of Armenia's total exports by the year's end, our forecasts
indicate a gradual slowdown in annual growth. An 80% interval projection suggests export
growth in the EAEU ranging from 43.8% to 81.3%.
The accompanying chart illustrates a similar deceleration in exports to Armenia's other
major trading partners. The European Union stands as Armenia's second-largest export
destination, with shipments primarily consisting of raw materials, metal ore, and base metals.
Armenia experienced a 17.8% increase in exports to the EU in 2022. However, our 80% interval
forecast suggests a growth range of -7.8% to 8.8% in EU exports.
In 2022, Armenia experienced an astonishing sevenfold increase (618.0%) in exports to
the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This remarkable surge was primarily attributed to the re-
export of precious stones and metals from Russia to the UAE through Armenia. However, as
depicted in the chart, this extraordinary growth is expected to cease, and the forecast for the
Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. | Miami, v. 8 | n. 10 | p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023.
10
Tavadyan, A., Tavadyan, A. (2023)
Navigating Uncertainty: an Interval Method to Uncover Export Dynamics Insights from the Republic of Armenia
near future indicates a negative trend. This shift underscores the dynamic nature of Armenia's
trade relationships with the UAE.
CONCLUSION
The models employed in our analysis project faster growth in exports among the EAEU
countries when trading within the Union compared to the global market. This underscores the
capability of the EAEU market as an attractive option for exporters, especially during periods
of heightened uncertainty.
Depending on the effectiveness of implementing export-oriented scenarios while
considering the uncertainty factor, a country's export value is expected to align closely with the
upper or lower boundaries indicated in the diagram.
The interval method for evaluating economic indicators significantly enhances the
accuracy of forecasts. Increasing the export of finished products and prioritizing trade relations
with the EU, EAEU, China, India, Georgia, and Arab countries emerge as pivotal factors for
economic growth. Especially in times of uncertainty, modernization, collaboration, and
enhancing the country's economic competitiveness through a policy geared toward boosting
finished product exports, particularly in smaller economies, become paramount for economic
development. When considering the cumulative effect, this approach not only directly
contributes to GDP and export growth but also elevates employment levels significantly.
REFERENCES
Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and
Practitioners. Springer.
Everette, M. R., Rosenberg, H. B., & Rubin, J. (1985). Handbook of Methods for Risk-Based
Analyses of Technical Issues. National Bureau of Standards.
Gilboa, I. (2009). Theory of Decision under Uncertainty. Cambridge University Press.
Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2015). Forecasting: Principles and Practice. OTexts.
Ianchovichina, E., & Lundstrom Gable, S. (2009, March 1). Inclusive Growth Analytics:
Framework and Application. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4851. Available
at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1410472
Kalogiannidis, S., Syndoukas, D., Papaevaggelou, O., & Chatzitheodoridis, F. (2023).
Relationship Between Business Communication and Business Sustainability in Times of
Uncertainty: A Case Study of Greece. International Journal of Professional Business Review,
8(5), 1-27. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i5.1477.
Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. | Miami, v. 8 | n. 10 | p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023.
11
Tavadyan, A., Tavadyan, A. (2023)
Navigating Uncertainty: an Interval Method to Uncover Export Dynamics Insights from the Republic of Armenia
Kohn, J. (2017). Uncertainty in Economics. Springer.
Kulinich, T., Andrushko, R., Prosovych, O., Sternyuk, O., & Tymchyna, Y. (2023). Enterprise
Risk Management in an Uncertain Environment. International Journal of Professional Business
Review, 8(4), 1-16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i4.1700.
Makridakis, S., & Hibon, M. (2017). The M-3 Competition: results, conclusions, and
implications. International Journal of Forecasting, DOI:10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00057-1.
Mester, L. J. (2016, October 7). Acknowledging Uncertainty. New York.
Poloz, S. (2022). The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future.
Penguin Canada. ISBN: 0735243913, 9780735243910.
Silver, N. (2012). The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't.
Penguin Group. ISBN 978-0143125082.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The New York
Times.
Tavadyan, A. A. (2022). Uncertainty Bands: A Guide to Predicting and Regulating Economic
Processes. Anthem Press.
... 5. Vulnerability Assessment: Drawing on the framework developed by Briguglio et al. (2009), we assess Armenia's economic vulnerability based on our findings. 6. Policy Implications: We use the insights from our quantitative analysis to discuss potential policy responses, drawing on the literature and best practices in comparable economies.To address potential data limitations and uncertainties, we employ the interval method proposed byTavadyan and Tavadyan (2023) where appropriate, particularly in our analysis of export dynamics. ...
Article
Full-text available
This study examines recent trends in Armenia's banking sector and export patterns, revealing underlying economic vulnerabilities despite apparent growth. Using data from the Central Bank of Armenia and official trade statistics, this paper analyzes shifts in lending patterns across various economic sectors and changes in export composition. Our findings indicate a concerning decline in industrial sector lending, coupled with a significant increase in mortgage and consumer loans. Additionally, we observe a heavy reliance on precious metal re-exports for economic growth, raising questions about the sustainability of Armenia's current economic trajectory. This research contributes to the understanding of potential risks in Armenia's financial system and highlights the need for diversification in its export base.
Article
Full-text available
Purpose: The issue of enterprise risk management in an uncertain environment is a priority for the corporate sector to ensure liquidity and value of financial assets and operations in the selected market segment. Theoretical framework: The problem of enterprise risk management is to find an effective practice of using risk management systems that can minimize and prevent potential risks both internally and externally. Method: The article aims to analyze enterprise risk management and outline the key means of ensuring the stability of commercial activities with possible optimization of the work of functional units. An important area of the study is the identification of modern practical risk management tools and means of optimizing corporate activities in the context of global economic instability. Results and conclusion: The results of the study indicate the characteristic practices and comprehensive means of enterprise risk management to ensure its microeconomic stability. The prospects for risk management as a tool for ensuring it, as analyzed in the study, are constantly evolving and changing due to the emergence of innovative information technologies, which are one of the key tools for forecasting, modeling, and analyzing enterprise activities. Search implications: Attention is paid to the issue of the current economic environment and the quality of financial resource allocation in an unstable global economic situation. Originality/value: The obtained results of the study can be used by corporate institutions to improve their risk management policies and contribute to the stable operation of the enterprise even in the face of global uncertainty in the environment.
Book
Full-text available
This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions – first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.
Book
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/uncertainty-bands/index/4803E52241E5545E0DEBB5952D37AE66 https://www.amazon.com/Uncertainty-Bands-Predicting-Regulating-Processes/dp/1839983981
Book
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Article
This paper describes the M3-Competition, the latest of the M-Competitions. It explains the reasons for conducting the competition and summarizes its results and conclusions. In addition, the paper compares such results/conclusions with those of the previous two M-Competitions as well as with those of other major empirical studies. Finally, the implications of these results and conclusions are considered, their consequences for both the theory and practice of forecasting are explored and directions for future research are contemplated.
Handbook of Methods for Risk-Based Analyses of Technical Issues
  • M R Everette
  • H B Rosenberg
  • J Rubin
Everette, M. R., Rosenberg, H. B., & Rubin, J. (1985). Handbook of Methods for Risk-Based Analyses of Technical Issues. National Bureau of Standards.
Forecasting: Principles and Practice
  • R J Hyndman
  • G Athanasopoulos
Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2015). Forecasting: Principles and Practice. OTexts.
Inclusive Growth Analytics: Framework and Application
  • E Ianchovichina
  • S Gable
Ianchovichina, E., & Lundstrom Gable, S. (2009, March 1). Inclusive Growth Analytics: Framework and Application. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4851. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1410472
A Case Study of Greece
Relationship Between Business Communication and Business Sustainability in Times of Uncertainty: A Case Study of Greece. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 8(5), 1-27. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i5.1477. Intern. Journal of Profess. Bus. Review. | Miami, v. 8 | n. 10 | p. 01-11 | e03777 | 2023. 11