Impact of the geopolitical status quo vis‐à‐vis the Rohingya crisis on the social, economic, and political aspects of Bangladesh

Abstract

The long‐standing Rohingya crisis has become complicated due to geopolitical complexities, and more than a million Rohingya refugees remain stranded in Bangladesh. This situation has had a dramatic impact on Bangladesh. Shortages of international funding exacerbate the situation further, and a regional security threat could be created if the current situation continues unabated. The empirical research undertaken in this paper examines the impact of the Rohingya refugees on the social, economic, and political aspects of Bangladesh from a micro level perspective. This study follows a qualitative research methodology that uses analysis of documents and analytical interpretations of 20 in‐depth interviews from Bangladesh. Environmental destruction and the government's dilemma with controlling law and order are apparent consequences of the Rohingya influx. Competition in the labor market, economic hardships, acquiring land, and deforestation create a conflict between the host community and the Rohingya refugee group. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Full text

Received: 29 September 2022
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Revised: 20 August 2023
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Accepted: 13 September 2023
DOI: 10.1111/aspp.12716
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Impact of the geopolitical status quo vis‐à‐vis
the Rohingya crisis on the social, economic,
and political aspects of Bangladesh
Iqthyer Uddin Md Zahed
School of Humanities, Arts & Social
Sciences, University of New England,
Armidale, New South Wales, Australia
Correspondence
Iqthyer Uddin Md Zahed, School of
Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences,
University of New England, Armidale,
NSW, Australia.
Email: izahedcu@gmail.com
Present address
Iqthyer Uddin Md Zahed, Brain and
Mind Centre, University of Sydney,
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Abstract
The long‐standing Rohingya crisis has become compli-
cated due to geopolitical complexities, and more than a
million Rohingya refugees remain stranded in Bangladesh.
This situation has had a dramatic impact on Bangladesh.
Shortages of international funding exacerbate the situation
further, and a regional security threat could be created if
the current situation continues unabated. The empirical
research undertaken in this paper examines the impact of
the Rohingya refugees on the social, economic, and
political aspects of Bangladesh from a micro level
perspective. This study follows a qualitative research
methodology that uses analysis of documents and
analytical interpretations of 20 in‐depth interviews from
Bangladesh. Environmental destruction and the govern-
ment's dilemma with controlling law and order are
apparent consequences of the Rohingya influx. Competi-
tion in the labor market, economic hardships, acquiring
land, and deforestation create a conflict between the host
community and the Rohingya refugee group. Theoretical
and practical implications are discussed.
Asian Politics & Policy. 2023;15:643–667. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/aspp
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This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits
use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or
adaptations are made.
© 2023 The Authors. Asian Politics & Policy published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Policy Studies Organization.
[The University of New England and University of Sydney Library supports selected “Read and Publish”agreements].

KEYWORDS
Bangladesh, environmental damage, geopolitical status quo,
Rohingya crisis, Yaba trafficking
INTRODUCTION
A series of massacres of the Rohingya ethnic community in Myanmar that occurred at the
hands of the Myanmar Government and military have been recognized as crimes against
humanity. These events took place during so‐called military‐led operations in 1978, 1992, 2012,
2016, and 2017 (Akins, 2018; Zahed, 2021b). The Rohingya have also experienced
discriminatory state policies, especially the Citizenship Law of 1982, which has taken away
their ancestral rights to call Myanmar home (Faulkner & Schiffer, 2019). Hence, this group of
people no longer have a “country”or piece of land anywhere in the world to call home. They
have consequently been dubbed “Asia's Palestinians”(I. Ahmed, 2010, p. 12).
Stateless and subjected to a wide range of human rights violations, the only option for the
Rohingya has been to either flee or die. An estimated three‐quarters of a million Rohingyas had
left Myanmar for Bangladesh in August 2017 after the clearing operations took place in
Rakhine state (Roy Chowdhury, 2019; UNHCR, 2019). Bangladesh is the country that has taken
more than a million refugees, which has become a problem for Bangladesh, a country of
approximately 163 million people and is one of the most densely populated countries in the
world (Akhter & Islam, 2019). Bangladesh is neither a signatory to the Refugee Convention of
1951 nor its Protocol of 1967 (UNHCR, 2017); however, it had no other option but to open the
border on humanitarian grounds to hundreds of thousands of refugees who fled genocide and
brutality in neighboring Myanmar. Bangladesh has no specific refugee‐related law or national
policy regarding refugees, and based on the country's Foreigners Act of 1946, refugees are
considered foreigners (Myat, 2018). According to the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)
between the governments of Bangladesh and Myanmar, which was signed on April 28, 1992,
around 236,599 Rohingyas were repatriated to Myanmar between 1992 and 2005 (I.
Ahmed, 2010, p. 101). Although the two governments signed another voluntary repatriation
agreement in January 2018, it failed to materialize because the Myanmar Government did not
agree to allow the Rohingya to regain their citizenship rights and could not ensure their safety
and security (Dhaka Tribune, 2019).
Despite the refugee problem, the Bangladesh Government has focused on the country's
economic development, encouraging foreign investors rather than engaging in conflict with
neighboring countries like Myanmar (Hossain et al., 2020). Powerful countries like the United
States, China, Russia, and India influence small countries in South Asia politically (Hossain
et al., 2020). However, Bangladesh has not received reliable support from any of these nations
to resolve the Rohingya crisis, possibly because of the economic interests that particular
superpowers have in Myanmar. There have been suggestions that the refugee influx from
Myanmar into Bangladesh has had political, social, and economic impacts on Bangladesh that
are discussed hereafter in the paper.
This article discusses the social, economic, and political impacts on Bangladesh of the
Rohingya exodus from Myanmar. The realistic conflict theory and conspiracy theory are
studied to understand the relationship between Rohingya refugees and the local host
community of Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh. And then it discusses the geopolitical status quo of
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the Rohingya predicament. It then then describes Bangladesh's social, economic, and political
concerns with the influx of Rohingyas as reflected in the literature and presents the interviews
with the informants, which are organized according to themes. The last section examines the
results before concluding the study.
METHODOLOGY
This study employed qualitative methods of research. Primary information for the research was
obtained from 20 in‐depth semi‐structured face to face interviews undertaken between August
2019 and February 2020. The participants were academics, historians, journalists, politicians,
and officials of NGOs and the Bangladesh Government who were directly or indirectly
connected with the Rohingya crisis in their respective professions. The in‐depth interviews with
the experts were conducted in the Dhaka, Chittagong, and Cox's Bazar districts of Bangladesh.
Participants were selected by searching ResearchGate, LinkedIn, Academia, different
universities, newspapers, NGOs, and the Bangladesh Government's website to identify experts
who had recently published books or research articles or presented and published in conference
proceedings that were related to the Rohingyas' predicament. The participant journalists were
selected who are or have recently been editors or members of editorial panels, politicians or
government officials who have participated in government committees related to refugee
management, and NGO officials who had produced reports on different humanitarian projects
related to the Rohingyas. The interviewees were selected as persons who possess a depth
knowledge and can be able to explain complexities of phenomena. The semi structured
questions were asked about the Rohingya crisis that related to socio political and economic
aspects of Bangladesh. The author invited 30 participants for interview; however, 20 in‐depth
interviews were taken as data saturation occurred. Interviews were only conducted after
written consent was procured. They were performed in Bengali or a mixture of Bengali and
English languages. The author recorded the transcripts and translated the interviews into
English. The researcher collected documents from the Ukhiya police station in Bangladesh.
Coding of the data involved integrating both inductive and deductive approaches and then
analysing information thematically. Narrative content was also analysed to highlight
information relevant to the research question. This process ensured that data analysis could
provide deeper insights with conceptual and theoretical contrast (Coffey & Atkinson, 1996;
Lincoln & Guba, 1985). The themes were developed and reviewed based on coded data and the
whole dataset. These data were informed by and in turn illuminated a further body of
secondary sources, including books, academic journal articles, reports, and online materials.
The documents, and secondary sources assisted in validating the findings obtained from the
primary data. The research design and processes were approved by relevant Human Research
Ethics Committee.
Theoretical underpinnings
Muzafer Sherif and his associates developed the realistic conflict theory, one of the established
social intergroup conflict theories, based on their “Robbers Cave experiment”(Muzafer
Sherif, 1966; M. Sherif et al., 1961). Realistic conflict theory suggests that the relationship
between particular groups is based on an immediate reaction to a conflict and the history of the
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interconnection between the groups concerned (Goldman et al., 2019; Tajfel & Turner, 1979).
The realistic conflict theory also states that the competition for valuable but limited resources
breeds hostility between groups (McKenzie & Gabriel, 2017; M. Sherif et al., 1961; Terhune &
Matusitz, 2016), and describes that the feelings of prejudice and discrimination towards the
“enemy”group contributes to intergroup hostility and strengthens in‐group solidarity (Muzafer
Sherif, 1966). This intergroup competition presents a zero‐sum structure that results in a
winner or a loser. The realistic conflict theory directly addresses intergroup conflict and how
the groups perceive and act toward each other (Terhune & Matusitz, 2016). Terhune and
Matusitz (2016) and Jackson (1993) argue that this kind of competition creates hostilities, and
such hostility can develop into fighting for political power and lifestyle‐associated issues.
Muzafer Sherif (1966) argues that people tend to obtain many resources for themselves, and the
competition turns into a win or lose situation. An “in‐group”attitude leads to discrimination
and negative stereotypes of the out‐group (Kampaki et al., 2020; Terhune & Matusitz, 2016).
Such discrimination is created by in‐group favoritism and marginalization of the out‐group,
which leads to an unwillingness to communicate and animosity towards the out‐group that can
then lead to prejudice and violent extremism (Pauwels & Heylen, 2020; Terhune &
Matusitz, 2016). The intergroup competition creates a win‐lose situation that causes prejudices
and negative stereotypes, creating an ethnocentric situation (Terhune & Matusitz, 2016). These
hostile intergroup relations create conflict based on group interests, which can lead to hostility
toward the out‐group, positive attachment to the in‐group, and increased in‐group
identification and social cohesion (LeVine & Campbell, 1972; Tajfel & Turner, 1979). Because
of competition for the same goal in a zero‐sum game, the relationships of out‐groups become
negatively stereotyped, and consequently, social distance increases (McKenzie & Gabriel, 2017).
Jackson (1993); McKenzie and Gabriel (2017); M. Sherif et al. (1961) argue that real‐world
factors may include a threat to real or imagined group security. Zarate, Garcia, Garza, and
Hitlan (2004) argue that local people think their job security is threatened when others have
similar skills and attributes. They also argue that locals carry more negative attitudes towards
immigrants, as they believe immigrants take jobs away from local citizens. The out‐group's
economic and political power grabbing is considered a real threat to members of the in‐group
(LeVine & Campbell, 1972); thus, the host community is unwilling to cooperate with the out‐
groups (i.e., immigrants) if they believe that a gain in economic wealth and power of the out‐
groups may cause economic and power losses in the host population (Echebarria‐Echabe &
Guede, 2003). According to Coser (1956) conflict could be internal (within‐group) or external
(between groups). The external conflict accelerates social integration and makes a group
distinction—“us”and “them.”The massive influx of Rohingya into Bangladesh who remained
stranded due to geopolitical status creates a hostile relationship and external conflict between
the host community and Rohingya refugees. The host community of Cox's Bazar is
undoubtedly distinct from the Rohingya refugee group and makes a group distinction between
“us”and “them.”The local community members are poor and struggle to get jobs for earnings.
Resources and economic opportunities in the host country are limited. Since the locals have to
share their limited resources with more than a million constrained refugees, they consider
Rohingya refugees rivals (Habib, 2022). The NGOs supply more aid to Rohingya than the poor
locals, and international funding and assistance come for the vulnerable Rohingyas. But many
needy locals also need aid that they are not getting because of the stranded Rohingyas.
Meanwhile, many Rohingya sell their cheap labor, and many local laborers struggle to get
work. The unfair competition for limited opportunities and resources creates a conflict between
these ingroup and outgroup communities.
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Given the current crisis, there is a sense of doubt and suspicion among Bangladesh's local
population and the Rohingya refugees. As a result, it is crucial to consider the possibility of
conspiracy theories when analysing the relationship between the Bangladeshi local community
and the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. Generally, conspiracy theory is associated with
pejorative connotation and speculative evidence (Cassam, 2019; Napolitano, 2021). These
theories propose that certain events are caused by conspiracies, which may or may not have
occurred (Duetz, 2023). Cassam (2019, p. 7) argues “conspiracy theories are implausible by
design.”Knight (2003, p. 16), suggests that conspiracy theory often incorporates misleading
speculation and implicit accusations. The political scientist Uscinski (2018, p. 20) argues, “if
conspiracy theorists investigate a theory that eventually turns out to be true, that theory stops
being labeled conspiracy theory.”Conspiracy theories are also linked to engaging in
nonnormative political actions led by state‐based anger (Jolley & Paterson, 2020).
Geopolitical status quo
The ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya and China's global capitalist business plan in Myanmar
can be seen as two sides of a coin (Yilmaz & Talukder, 2019). China has significant strategic
and economic interests in Myanmar. For instance, the deep seaport of Kyaukpyu in northern
Rakhine is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and provides an alternative pathway to
the Indian Ocean for importing energy from the Middle East, which allows China to avoid
pirates operating in the Malacca Strait (Zahed, 2022). It will also contribute to a regional
network, called the Chinese “string of pearls strategy,”that includes Chittagong in Bangladesh,
Gwadar in Pakistan, and Hambantota in Sri Lanka (Aung, 2020). To compete with China, India
also has considerable investment in Myanmar. The rivalry between China and India
concerning Myanmar is prominent. India has significant investment in Rakhine, including
the Sittwe seaport, the Kaladan Multi‐Model Transit Transport Project, gas, oil, and the IT
education sector (McCartan, 2008; Sidhu, 2020), while China has several growing relationships
and is influencing South Asian countries, which is creating problems and a sovereignty threat
for India, especially Chinese control of the Gwadar Port in Pakistan and the China–Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) (Nataraj & Sekhani, 2015). Roy Chowdhury, (2020) argued that
during the democratic transition in the country, geopolitical and neoliberal interests fueled the
violence further to eliminate Rohingyas from affluent areas of Rakhine. Bangladesh depends on
the international community to resolve this crisis. Despite the vast Rohingya influx into
Bangladesh, the Bangladesh‐Myanmar relationship is stable and peaceful. Both countries
maintain friendly and diplomatic relationships. Bangladesh's government relies on the
international community to resolve the Rohingya predicament as it believes it is a global
problem. Though India recognized its relationship with Bangladesh as a “golden age”in its
relations, New Delhi is not cooperative concerning the Rohingya issue to gain its geopolitical
and strategic interest in Myanmar. As a result, China and India have little concern about the
Rohingya crisis (Zahed, 2022).
There is an alliance referred to as “Quad,”which is a collaboration between the US,
Australia, Japan, and India. These countries are working together in the Indo‐Pacific region to
compete with China's BRI. All Quad members have investments in various development and
humanitarian projects in Myanmar. The Western community has also frequently called for
international intervention to create a safe zone for the Rohingya; however, China believes such
interventions pose considerable threats to its investments in Rakhine (Aung, 2020). The US
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interest in the Rohingya crisis is to promote democracy and establish human rights in
Myanmar. Nevertheless, China wants to prevent US interference in Rakhine. Accordingly,
China put forward a “three‐step plan”based on its analyses that identified a lack of
development and investment in Rakhine as the root cause of the Rohingyas crisis (Song, 2018).
However, this plan failed in 2019 when voluntary repatriation of the Rohingya as agreed on
legal grounds did not eventuate. China subsequently assumed the role of safeguarding
Myanmar in the UN Security Council, using its veto power to block every resolution on the
Rohingyas and Myanmar in 2017, 2018, and again in 2021 (Han, 2020; Zahed, 2021a).
Politics involving China, the United States, India, and even Russia is heavily linked to the
Rohingya crisis in the UN and the international arena (Karim, 2021). The United States sees
China as a global security threat because of its activities in Myanmar with the BRI. It is also
possible that China is concerned that the United States, the UN, and the INGO humanitarian
projects could disturb Chinese projects in Rakhine (Aung, 2020). Therefore, reaching a
sustainable solution to the Rohingya crisis is challenging due to interference from the evolving
geopolitical status quo.
Social security concerns
The local people of Bangladesh have tolerated and sympathized with the Rohingya
predicament. This sympathy was mainly due to shared religious beliefs and a common
humanitarian perspective (Joehnk, 2017). However, the continuous refugee influx, its size and
the prolonged period of time that the Rohingya have remained in Bangladesh have increased
tensions with the locals (McDonald, 2017). The influx of refugees has caused unfair job
competition in and around the camp area, as the Rohingyas work for wages that are 37%–50%
lower than that of local laborers; thus, the locals have become unemployed (Choudury &
Fazlulkader, 2019). Some registered Rohingyas have engaged in shopkeeping, rickshaw‐pulling,
fishing and laboring work, and many, whether registered or unregistered, have managed to
secure illegal jobs in the area (Ullah, 2011). Another bone of contention is that the local
community is not getting free healthcare services from the INGOs, NGOs, or UN agencies, all of
which tend to focus on the vulnerable refugees in the camps and ignore the needs of the locals
(Bussabong Chaijaroenwatana, 2021). In addition, the presence of 35,000 national and foreign
NGO workers working and living in the Cox's Bazar area is having an impact on the price of
essential food and daily commodities, transportation and house rent, which ultra‐poor locals
cannot afford (L. Yasmin & Akther, 2020). The result is increasing conflict between locals and
refugees (Zafar, 2020). According to Zarate et al. (2004), local peoples worry about job security,
and host and refugee communities compete for limited resources. The flood of refugees
undoubtedly raised the cost of living and reduced the pay and job losses, fueling conflict
between locals and Rohingya refugees.
Of significance, Rohingya involvement in drug, human, and arms trafficking has made the
Cox's Bazar region a crime zone (Lewis, 2018). Geographically, Bangladesh is located close to
two opium‐producing zones: the golden triangle (border of Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar) and
the golden crescent (border of Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan). This proximity makes it a
convenient transition zone for opium, heroin, and yaba (methamphetamine tablets or speed)
(Chin, 2009). The Rohingya became regular carriers of yaba, having been recruited by national
and international criminal syndicates (Haque, 2016). Controlling this drug trafficking is a
challenge for Bangladesh security forces and a significant concern for regional security.
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Although prostitution is considered illegal in Bangladesh, Many Rohingya girls and women
choose “survival sex”as they do not have any legal source of income in the camp, which is very
much a concern for local people with regard to the degrading moral standards of this livelihood
(Chakma, 2019). Again, Bangladeshi and Rohingya negotiators are involved in these illegal
prostitution activities.
There are frequent environmental challenges in Bangladesh, as it is one of the countries
that is most vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Sarker et al., 2020). The Rohingya
incursion has contributed to these challenges as there has been a significant impact on the
environment (S. Ahmed et al., 2021). The destruction of over 4500 acres of hill‐lands and forests
was needed to provide makeshift dwellings for the Rohingyas (UNDP, 2018), and it is unlikely
that these forests will be able to recover within the next two decades (Bussabong
Chaijaroenwatana, 2021; Hammer & Ahmed, 2020). The Kutupalong Rohingya Refugee Camp
in Cox's Bazar is known globally as the largest refugee camp in the world, and it was extended
after clearing 1365 acres of forest (Hammer & Ahmed, 2020). The estimated value of the
occupied forest is five billion BDT, although there is limited focus on predicting the short‐term
and long‐term impacts on the environment (Babu, 2020). Also, a social forestry plantation
program in Ukhiya that involved 1730 acres was given up to extend the Rohingya settlement
(Babu, 2020), which meant around 2000 locals lost their jobs. Furthermore, the Rohingya
engage in deforestation to satisfy the demand for daily 2250 tons of firewood, which is required
for cooking purposes (Hammer & Ahmed, 2020). Therefore, the Rohingya influx has had a
significant impact on local forests and has intensified the human–wildlife conflict in the Cox's
Bazar area (Dekrout, 2018). Threats from wildlife are on the increase, particularly adjacent to
the Tekanf Wildlife Sanctuary, where a forest reserve of 28,688 acres is at risk because of
deforestation due to refugees gathering resources (Myat, 2018).
Other environmental issues relate to water supply and management. A UNDP (2018, p. 126)
report shows that there is a 3.4 million litre demand for drinking water and a 13.8 million litre
demand for household water per day in the two Rohingya camps in Cox's Bazar. This excessive
demand for tube well groundwater has lowered the water level in the refugee settlement area,
and it is exacerbated by the decreasing rainfall associated with deforestation. This lowered
water level is directly affecting the host community (Chakma, 2019; UNDP, 2018). The areas
where the Rohingya live are also at risk from landslides, flooding due to heavy rainfall,
windstorms, and soil erosion because of exposed hill cuttings (Khatun & Kamruzzaman, 2018).
Economic outrage
The remaining long‐term Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh are having a significant negative
impact on the Bangladeshi economy. Bangladesh managed modest and steady economic
growth in the last few years with a GDP of US$ 221.42 billions and US$ 274.04 billions in the
2015–2016 and 2017–2018 financial years, respectively, and GDP growth rate was 7.11% and
7.86% in the same financial years, respectively (Macrotrends, 2021). However, to maintain over
a million Rohingya costs an estimated US$ 1 billion for 12 months (Alam, 2018). According to
the UNHCR, the direct costs of accommodating Rohingyas for 10 months in the 2018–2019
financial year was US$ 882 million (Babu, 2020), which was about 3.5% of the Bangladesh
Government's revenue in 2017 (László, 2018). The funding required to maintain the Rohingya
was US$ 919.5 million in 2019 and US$ 1.3 billion in 2020. However, the funding from
international agencies only provided US$ 692.5 million and US$ 687.2 million in 2019 and 2020,
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respectively (OCHA, 2021). The lack of funding is a significant burden on the Bangladesh
economy. On 15 October 2017, the Finance Minister, Abul Maal Abdul Muhit, said that
“Myanmar will destroy Bangladesh's economy this year”(László, 2018, p. 28), suggesting that
the Rohingya crisis exerts great pressure on the country's economy. The Bangladesh
Government invested US$ 272 million to develop residential facilities in Bhasan Char, a
floating island in Noakhali district, to relocate 100,000 Rohingya (Spicer, 2018; Zahed, 2020).
The continuous aid gap and the spending on Rohingya residential projects have impacted on
the country's national budget and has shrunk government spending on its own development
and infrastructural projects.
Many employers are providing work to Rohingyas because they accept low wages due to
their economic hardship. Of course, employers take advantage of the Rohingyas' right to work
in Bangladesh but as a result, the government loses revenue and there is also the issue of
workers being abused (László, 2018). In addition, the locals in Ukhiya and Teknaf face losses of
income and often become unemployed, which leads to deteriorating livelihoods for many locals
(Chakma, 2019). As mentioned, 2000 locals became unemployed when the social forestry
project ceased due to competing demands from the Rohingya settlements (Yilmaz &
Talukder, 2019). The unemployment of locals, in general, is a continuous threat to Bangladesh's
economic growth and sustainability (K. Yasmin, 2017).
Cox's Bazar beach is one of the longest sea beaches globally, and it is the country's leading
tourist destination for beachgoers. Bangladesh faces the threat of revenue losses from the
tourism sector because of the Rohingya influx into this area (Cookson, 2017; Myat, 2018). Hotel
reservations decreased by 40% in 2017 compared to the previous year (Yilmaz &
Talukder, 2019). Another tourist spot in Cox's Bazar, Saint Martin Island, had a low tourist
turnout because of apprehensions about holidaying near the Bangladesh–Myanmar border and
government security restrictions (Babu, 2020). The tourism industry is therefore under threat of
losing revenue from more than a million tourists yearly, all because of this security issue
(Chakma, 2019; UNDP, 2018).
However, the Rohingya influx also has some positive impact on the local economy. The
presence of international aid agencies helps to flourish the local business, and many
Bangladeshi residents enjoy employment opportunities in the various national and
international humanitarian aid agencies. The funding shortage may challenge Bangladesh's
refugee management system and economic downfall, exacerbating the conflict between the
Rohingya and the host community.
Political security concerns
Bangladesh now sees the Rohingya as a security threat for the country because of their
contribution to demographic imbalance and the potential for radicalization in the border areas.
The local population of two upazilas (sub‐districts), Ukhiya and Teknaf, is approximately
500,000, while there are more than a million Rohingya living in two camps covering an area of
651 square kilometers in the same area (Myat, 2018; Zahed, 2020). The birth rate of Rohingya in
the camps is alarmingly high compared to the Bangladeshi population; the birth rate in the
Rohingya refugee camp in Cox's Bazar is 35.6 births per 1000 (Hossain et al., 2020), and the
Bangladeshi birth rate is 18.3 births per 1000 population in 2018. (Islam, 2019). This
demographic imbalance has caused a security threat for the hosts when locals and Rohingyas
frequently die due to violent conflict between locals and refugees. Managing a vast number of
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refugees has become a formidable challenge for Bangladesh. On August 25, 2019, about 200,000
Rohingyas gathered in the Kuthupalong Rohingya Refugee Camp without permission from the
Bangladesh authorities to commemorate Genocide Remembrance Day (Zahed, 2020). After this
event, the Bangladesh Government became more vigilant with security and monitoring
suspicious activities that the refugees might organize.
The Rohingya crisis has emerged as a regional security issue in the South Asian region.
Bangladesh faces the challenge of tackling international jihadism because international
militant groups target the Rohingyas for recruitment due to their vulnerability following their
experiences of brutal treatment at the hands of the Myanmar military. Al‐Qaeda and the
Islamic State campaigned against the Myanmar Government and declared in February 2017
that Myanmar is the next battlefield after the Syrian and Iraq Wars (Martin et al., 2018).
Although Fair (2018), Lintner (2017), and Kocamis (2019) state that the Arakan Rohingya
Salvation Army (ARSA) has no links to international terrorist groups, they do not disagree that
the evicted and abused Rohingyas now living as refugees in Bangladesh may be “fertile ground”
for different terrorist groups to sow seeds of radicalization. The banned extremist groups in
Bangladesh, Harkat‐ul‐Jihad‐e‐Islami (HuJI) and Jamaat‐e‐Islami, have contact with and
finance the Rohingya militants in the camp (I. Ahmed, 2010; Ullah, 2011). A further
concerning matter is that ARSA has activities in the camp at night, even though the Bangladesh
security forces have consistently rejected this claim (Bussabong Chaijaroenwatana, 2021).
ARSA is suspected of recruiting Rohingyas from the camp and engaging them in cross‐border
fighting and arms and drug trafficking (Hammer & Ahmed, 2020; International Crisis
Group, 2018).
The Rohingya refugee issue has also caused cross‐border clashes between Myanmar and
Bangladesh (Parnini, 2013). The political crisis between these neighboring nations is complex
(Alam, 2018). With around 50,000 Burmese soldiers assembled along the border, the
Bangladesh Government considers this situation a threat to peace and security (Faulkner &
Schiffer, 2019). Burmese military drones and helicopters violated Bangladesh's airspace in Cox's
Bazar areas several times in September 2017 (Dhaka Tribune, 2017). In April 2019, Bangladesh
deployed a sizable number of heavily armed soldiers of the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB)
brigade onto Saint Martin Island, a small island in the north‐eastern part of the Bay of Bengal
adjacent to Cox's Bazar (The Independent, 2019).
Moreover, the Rohingya issue has had an impact on the country's domestic politics. Some
corrupt Bangladeshi politicians have used refugees for their own political interests by providing
them with illegal documents such as Bangladeshi birth certificates, national identity cards, and
even passports, so that they could be used to increase their votes in elections (Chakma, 2019;
Mortoza, 2017; Roy Chowdhury, 2019). Many Rohingyas traveled to Saudi Arabia and Malaysia
using fake Bangladeshi passports, which has added to Bangladesh's security threat. All of this
happens with the assistance of corrupted Bangladeshi officials and residents. Many of these
illegally integrated Rohingyas are also involved in politics with the Bangladesh Awami League
and BNP, and Jamat‐e‐Islami and became a member and Chairman in the Union Parishad
(local government) of the Bandarban and Cox's Bazar area (Mortoza, 2017). These Rohingya
representatives support refugees fleeing from the camps and spreading across the country.
Terhune and Matusitz (2016) and Jackson (1993) argue that political power competition creates
hostility. LeVine and Campbell (1972) argues that the out‐group's economic and political power
grabbing is a real threat to the in‐group. Due to the Rohingya's high childbirth rate, the
demographic imbalance in Cox's Bazar, and their involvement in Bangladeshi politics, the host
community has a negative stereotyped and hatred relationship with the Rohingya group.
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Findings from the field
This article analyses the social, economic, and political impact of the influx of Rohingya
refugees in Bangladesh. Data were obtained using semi‐structured interviews of experts in
South and Southeast Asian affairs and the Rohingya crisis in Bangladesh. The data were
analysed and the findings were classified into the broad themes of social impact, economic
impact, political impact.
Social impact
The Rohingya influx has had social impacts on the people of Bangladesh, especially the local
inhabitants of Cox's Bazar. Based on the primary data, the social drawbacks were categorized
under three subthemes: conflict with locals, crime involvement, and educational interruption.
The Rohingya resettlement also impacts the environment dreadfully.
Conflict with locals
During the Rohingya influx in August 2017, the Bangladeshi people sympathized with the
problems the Rohingyas were facing and provided food and shelter even in their own homes.
Now they fear that the Rohingyas will never return to Myanmar. Many locals consider the
Rohingya influx to be like a “poisonous boil”or “an unexpected bone of our throat,”as
mentioned in the interviews. The local people feel unsafe because of the demographic
imbalance that the Rohingyas have caused. One person interviewed couched it as follows:
The local people turned into a minority as refugees' numbers are more than the
number of local people in Cox's Bazar. One fear of local people is that Rohingyas
will never go back. The Rohingyas try to dominate upon locals. The locals who live
inside the camp cannot show their discomfort or dare speak it because of their
majority in numbers. As a result, there is an extreme inferiority complex among
the locals. The members of the young generation of exiled refugees started getting
involved in various crimes. Since they are organised and have a large population,
everyone is afraid of them in the camp. The way Bangladeshi people
enthusiastically embraced them initially has now turned into abuse. Now the
local people are creating hatred towards them. If someone says something terrible,
then people say ‐do you become Rohingya? However, they are in danger.
Still, there are some sympathetic people towards them; at first, they could not hold
on to the sympathetic attitude; for lack of education, they would do anything for
short‐term gain. (Academic & Author, Dhaka)
Another participant argued about the financial loss that the local people have borne as they
lost the social forestry plantation project to make room for Rohingya shelters. He said that
“local people did not get any compensation for the destruction of their social forestry project”
(NGO Official, Cox's Bazar). Another interviewee mentioned the local people's financial
hardship with regard to NGO aid:
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Because of the Rohingya crisis, most international funding comes for the refugees,
not for the poor native peoples—the poor Bangladeshi people are depressed from
the lack of regular access to financing. (Bangladesh Government Official, Cox's
Bazar)
Crime involvement
All of the participants mentioned that the Rohingya are involved in crime, especially drugs/
yaba trafficking. The consequences of their crimes are spreading across the country. A
participant argued:
Rohingyas are involved in various evil deeds like local prostitution, child marriage,
theft, robbery, yaba trafficking etc. This drug [yaba] can destroy the youth of the
entire nation. (Politician, Dhaka)
Sadly, the drug trade in Bangladesh has increased with the arrival of the Rohingya. Law and
order have deteriorated, and murders have also increased. The Business Standard reported in
October 2019 that drones and helicopters assisted in locating and arresting Hakim [the
Rohingya robber] from his secret base in the hills (TBS Report, 2019).
The police filed 848 cases against RohingyasintheUkhyiapolicestationalonebetween2017and
January 2020, of which 263 were related to drug dealing, which is the top crime on the list. Similarly,
there were 118 disappearances and 71 murder cases filed at the same police station (see Table 1).
These crime statistics are from only one police station in the country, but it is evidence enough that
the Rohingya have become involved in serious criminal activity in Bangladesh.
Educational interruption
Less than a quarter of the interviewees reported on how the Rohingya influx at the end of 2017
caused an educational interruption in schools, colleges, and madrasas in the Cox's Bazar area.
One participant said:
The Rohingyas came from 25 August and through to November 2017. That was the
time for the annual examination for primary and secondary schools in Bangladesh.
Rohingyas took shelter in schools, Madrasas [Islamic school], apart from other
places in which they took refuge. So, this affected education in the area severely
(Academic, Chittagong).
Some Rohingya tried to gain admission to public colleges and universities with fake identification
papers. An interviewee said: “Government provides subsidies to students in the education sectors,
from the budget, and every school has a restriction with respect to seat capacities; now the Rohingya
fill a proportion of the seats available to local students”(Academic, Chittagong). Another participant
argued that the increase in the number of school leavers in the area is because of aid jobs at the
camps. He said, “The under‐grad student is getting paid very attractive money from the NGOs in the
camps.So,studentsprefertotakeupajobinstead of studying further. The education system is
therefore in crisis”(Journalist, Cox's Bazar).
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TABLE 1 Statistics of Rohingya related cases at Ukhiya police station (yearly).
2017 Year 2018 Year 2019 Year Jan/2020 In total
Sr. No. Type of case
Number of
accused
Number of
cases
Number of
accused
Number
of cases
Number of
accused
Number
of cases
Number of
accused
Number
of cases
Number of
accused
Number
of cases
1 Number of arms
cases
03 08 08 14 13 24 ––24 48
2 Number of drug
cases
07 11 39 67 100 171 05 14 152 263
3 Number of
robbery cases
–– 02 06 –– ––02 06
4 Rape 02 02 10 18 08 14 01 01 21 35
5 Number of
attempted
rape/
kidnaping
cases
–– 04 05 05 06 ––09 11
6 Foreigners Act 05 11 02 02 –– ––07 13
7 Number of
kidnaping
cases
–– 09 40 05 44, Unknown
10/12
02 34 16 118
8 Number of
smuggling
cases
–– –– 11 21 01 01 12 22
9 Number of theft
cases
01 01 01 02 05 14,
Unknown
1
––07 17
10 Number of
robbery and
02 06 06 20 02 15 ––10 41
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TABLE 1 (Continued)
2017 Year 2018 Year 2019 Year Jan/2020 In total
Sr. No. Type of case
Number of
accused
Number of
cases
Number of
accused
Number
of cases
Number of
accused
Number
of cases
Number of
accused
Number
of cases
Number of
accused
Number
of cases
robbery
preparation
cases
11 Number of
murder cases
03 10, Unknown 19 35, Unknown
4/5
16 26, Unknown
7/8
––38 71
12 Number of other
cases
03 15 19 38 19 57, Unknown
1900/2000
04 78 45 188
13 Human
trafficking
–– –– 03 12, Unknown
7/8
01 05 04 17, Unknown
7/8
14 Total 27 64 119 247 177 372 14 133 347 848
Note: Total Rohingya related cases: 347, total accused: 848, unknown: 5000/5310.
Source: Data collected from Ukhiya Police Station, Cox's Bazar.
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Environmental damage
All participants interviewed argued that the Rohingya activities are causing environmental
destruction, which has created an ecological imbalance with impacts on the residents in the
area as well as the wildlife. One of the participants said:
The environmental destruction is deadly, catastrophically so in the last two years
[from August 2017 onwards], after the authorities allocated 5,000 acres of land to
Rohingyas for their stay. They cut down the forest trees and cut into the hillside in
efforts to construct hundreds of thousands of homes for the refugees. The habitats
for wildlife, elephants and birds for example, are in ruins, which has created an
ecological imbalance and fails to protect us against climate change related events.
There is even no space left for cattle grazing (Journalist, Dhaka).
Economic impact
About half of the interviewed participants argued that the Rohingya refugee influx has had a
negative economic impact on Bangladesh. They mentioned that the losses included
environmental destruction (forest and water resources), problems in the labor market, higher
pricing of daily necessities and transportation, infrastructure damage, and a lack of foreign aid,
which has also impacted on Bangladesh's local and national economies. An interviewed
participant said:
It is a massive pressure for Bangladesh to maintain an additional 1.2 million
people. It lost valuable forest and water resources. Bangladesh may not have the
capacity to calculate these long‐term economic costs; the actual price is more than
we imagined. It is more concerning that a large part of the funding for Rohingyas
comes from all over the world, though every year there is a shortage of required
funding; If the world faces a recession in the future, the funding granted will
reduce. Then the Rohingyas will be a total economic burden for Bangladesh.
(Government Official, Cox's Bazar)
Cox's Bazar is a prominent tourist spot in Bangladesh, and the refugee settlement has had a
negative effect on tourism. A participant said, “Cox's Bazar is an important financial
contributor to our economy. Government should think seriously to save the tourism industry”
(Journalist, Chittagong). Locals face income losses when tourism revenue declines. Moreover,
the price of daily necessities increased rapidly due to the many NGO workers in the area
spending money for items that locals also need. Thus, the hike in prices of essential goods
affects the livelihoods of local people. An interviewee said:
Now the Rohingyas are selling their cheap labour from which local workers used to
earn their incomes via these same means. The price of necessary goods increased
10 times. Even house rent has gone up at a higher rate than in Dhaka and
Chittagong cities. The transportation cost in Cox's Bazar area has increased 2‐3
times compared to past prices. The salaries of aid workers are in US dollars, but the
average local service holder's wage in Bangladesh currency is not comparable with
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those NGO workers paid with the dollar. So, not only the local labour class but also
middle‐class people suffer from an imbalance in the job market, which the inflow
of NGO workers has definitely caused. (Journalist, Cox's Bazar).
Infrastructure damage
A quarter of the participants mentioned the infrastructure damage in the Ukhiya and Teknaf
areas because aid workers are moving materials and goods into an overpopulated refugee camp.
The researcher observed regular traffic jams in/out of the refugee camp for 1–1.5 h because a
number of vehicles run daily along the narrow, muddy roads.
The destruction of roads and infrastructure is apparent. Only 50 cars drove on the
streets on any day before the camp was established, now 50,000 cars use the same
road, particularly in and around Ukhiya and Teknaf, which are remote regional
areas that lack resources. The massive inflow of Rohingyas directly impacts
essential resources and infrastructure including clean water, sanitation facilities,
electricity, roads, and communications networks (Government Official, Cox's
Bazar).
Political impact
Bangladesh is facing some challenges in the political arena due to the Rohingya crisis. These
challenges were categorized into six broad subthemes: national security, passport fraud,
unwelcome social integration, fear of social disorder, political debate, and NGO motives.
National security
All those interviewed were of the opinion that the Rohingyas are not involved in militant
activities but are rather anxious to return to their lands in Burma. However, all participants
treated the Rohingya as a security threat for Bangladesh, and even South Asia, because of their
vulnerability. A participant explained thus:
I do not think Rohingyas get involved in militancy. The militant network has
developed, and some of the events occurred within Bangladesh: blogger killing, 500
bomb attacks, attacks on police, etc. There have been no Rohingyas arrested since
1992. The fact is that there are no records of any Rohingya arrested or accused of
militant activities in Bangladesh. So, it is entirely baseless to mention Rohingya
involvement in militancy (Journalist, Dhaka).
Although all participants rejected Rohingya connections with militancy, all participants
argued that there is the potential for Rohingyas to join in different militant groups, which will
destabilize Bangladesh if not the entire region.
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The number of Rohingyas in Bangladesh is enormous, more than 1.2 million; many
of them are youth. An Islamist, extremist group could easily target Rohingyas for
recruitment into planning and effecting militant activities. From my observations
and conversations, I can say without a doubt that Rohingyas think their
persecution is mainly due to their religion. On examining their education system,
I cannot conclude that it is in any way or form enlightened or modern. Islamic
sensibilities could easily use ignorance under these circumstances to attract
persecuted Muslims into joining militant groups. If they [Rohingyas] get arms from
any source, a civil war could start in Bangladesh. From my own experience, I
cannot say that militancy will not happen because different forces are at work with
different interests in the Rohingya camp. For example, the Islamic fundamentalist
political party Jamaat‐e‐Islami work there; the camp authorities have banned some
NGOs (Activist Development & Relief Agency, Al Markazul Islami, Mukti and
others). When people are under siege, oppressed, and uneducated, they can be led
to militancy, terrorism, and to take revenge for their maltreatment. Unfortunately,
their situation is such that it could become detrimental to Bangladesh. The
Rohingya crisis could destabilise a large proportion of South Asia. Hence it is
necessary and desirable for all concerned parties to end the crisis decisively, sooner
rather than later (Journalist, Dhaka).
Passport fraud
Rohingyas are heavily involved in national identity theft within Bangladesh, including
passport, national identity card (NID), and voter card fraud (Mortoza, 2017). These are security
threats for Bangladesh. Many Rohingya managed to acquire Bangladeshi passports after bribing
corrupt Bangladeshi officials. One interviewee said:
Some politicians seem to illegally use Rohingyas as a bank of votes. They provide
them with pertinent documents such as the NID, which was not essential in the
past to vote, but now these cards enable some Rohingya refugees to vote illegally.
This kind of fraud appears in the news informing the general public that Rohingyas
have taken up the national identity card (NID). I [interviewee] have seen a few of
those illegal cards. This can change the voting equation in that region based on a
number of illegal voters adding their support to a politician. From the newspaper, I
could see stories that explained how some of these voters or so‐called citizens of
Bangladesh and have a Bangladesh passport which they acquire through
fraudulent means through manipulation of the system in order to travel abroad
(Academic, Dhaka).
Unwelcome social integration
More than a third of the interviewees argued that many Rohingya who came to Bangladesh in
1978 or 1992 integrated into Bangladesh illegally and lead their lives as Bangladeshis now. They
tend to assimilate, and as one participant said, “Many of them fled to Bandarban and
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Rangamati”(Journalist, Chittagong). When the problem continues for a long time, these
illegals will forget their intention to return to their origins. Another participant said:
Many of them [Rohingyas] are socially integrated into Bangladesh, especially those
who came in 1978 or 1992. They married local women. Many of them are very
influential now. Their second generation is also getting married to locals and
working in Bangladesh as Bangladeshis. You will find many in the BCS
(Bangladesh Civil service) cadres, police members, and bank officers, whom are
of Rohingya origin (Journalist, Dhaka).
Many Rohingya descendants have become representatives of local government in Cox's
Bazar and Chittagong Hill Tract areas. The researcher met a couple in the camp who married
Bengali women living in the camp in spite of the fact that the Bangladesh Government issued a
public order in July 2014 prohibiting intermarriage between Bangladeshi citizens and Rohingya
refugees (Chowdhury, 2021). An interviewee said the following regarding the integration of
Rohingyas:
They [Rohingyas] are used in politics. Many rich businesspeople have come to
Cox's Bazar from Myanmar. Many of them become the chairman of a Union
Parishad [local government] of Bangladesh, and many of them gained political
posts of political parties in Bangladesh (Journalist, Dhaka).
Fear of social disorder
About two‐thirds of the participants warned about the possibility of social disorder in the Cox's
Bazar area because of the population's demographic imbalance. One‐third of participants
mentioned the Bangladesh Intelligence Department's failure with regard to the Genocide
Remembrance Day observance in August 2019. As stated by one participant:
The Rohingya crisis will have long‐term political consequences for Bangladesh.
If they start to do something extreme because they are in a desperate situation,
the area becomes unsound. They have gathered two lakhs [200,000] in a
single meeting. They have become more like a political party. What did the
Intelligence Department [of Bangladesh] do? There is a severe social impact
because the Rohingya population is greater than the entire population of Cox's
Bazar itself (Academic, Dhaka).
Political debate
Although the Rohingya crisis has not had a significant impact on Bangladeshi internal politics,
less than a quarter of participants involved in this research project argued that political debate
exists between two big political parties in Bangladesh (Bangladesh Awami League and
Bangladesh Nationalist Party). One of these participants argued that “there is a possibility to
hire [potential] terrorists from the camp.”Another participant said:
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If any revolt happened in the camp, it would affect the two divided political parties
of Bangladesh. Complaints will come against the government, and the opposition
can take advantage [of this kind of problem]. So, the government is under some
pressure. There is a lot of fear inside. The impact on internal politics has not been
apparent yet. Sometimes, the BNP claimed that they repatriated Rohingyas during
President Ziaur Rahman's tenure (1977–1981) but the Awami League government
is failing to do so. There are such disputes (Columnist & Security Specialist,
Dhaka).
NGO motives
About a quarter of the participants expressed their doubt about the attitude of NGOs and the
UNHCR towards the refugees. They argued that NGO officials want the crisis to continue
because it is in their best interests. One participant said:
NGOs help and sympathise with Rohingyas, but some NGOs insist on them going
against the government or the host community. Some countries are even helping
them [Rohingyas] to agitate against the Bangladesh Government. Even the
UNHCR wants this kind of crisis to survive. If it persists, the employees [in refugee
related work] will continue to enjoy a lot of opportunities and benefits (Journalist,
Cox's Bazar).
One of the participants, a Bangladesh Government official, argued about the NGOs'
unethical activities and wastage of funding that comes for Rohingya welfare. He said:
Except for a few NGOs, most of these have come here [Rohingya camp] to do
business in the name of humanity. Although they have approved billions of takas
for the Rohingya, there is no record of where money went. However, I went to
some NGOs for auditing. I investigated their procurement systems; I observed that
the NGOs purchased and spent money as they wish without following the
Bangladesh Government's regulations. They also escaped paying the government's
VAT (Government Official, Cox's Bazar).
DISCUSSION
The study investigated the social, economic, and political impacts on Bangladesh of the
Rohingya refugees who have been living in Bangladesh since 1978. The study contributes to our
understanding of the problems that the host community faces due to the geopolitical status quo
concerning the Rohingya crisis. From the literature, it is apparent that only very nominal
research on this aspect of the Rohingya crisis has been advanced thus far. This study is based on
extensive field research, and the findings of the study contribute to sociological studies on
development interactions between states in South Asia.
The research reveals that the sympathy that the Bangladeshi people once had towards the
Rohingya refugees no longer exists because of the negative socioeconomic consequences on
their livelihoods, particularly for locals in areas surrounding the refugee camps. The tension
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between the refugee and host communities escalated because of access to the labor market,
deprivation from NGO benefits, land use, deforestation, and demographic imbalance. The
demographic imbalance in the area makes local people feel insecure and worried about the
impact of the influx of refugees on their residential areas. Fittingly, they have grown to doubt
whether the Rohingya will ever return to their homeland in Myanmar. The Rohingya are
behaving aggressively and are involved in antisocial activities, which has created an unhealthy
relationship with local Bangladeshi people (McDonald, 2017; Zafar, 2020). The destruction of
the social plantation/forestry program to construct shelters for the refugees and the deprivation
of foreign aid that is funnelled to the refugees leave the local poor to face financial losses, which
has contributed to the unhealthy relationship between the refugees and the host communities
(Babu, 2020). The anti‐Rohingya conspiracy theories sought to blame Rohingya for the
destruction of the social forestry project. Nonetheless, the Bangladesh authority selected the
location for the refugees' temporary settlement without compensating the affected locals for
their plantations, where the Rohingya people have not had a say in this decision. Also,
Rohingya involvement is worsening law and order situation and drug trafficking (yaba)is
destroying the country's young generation (Table 1). Again, as per conspiracy theories, the
locals tend to accuse the Rohingya community solely of drug dealing. Nonetheless, the reality is
that Bangladeshi drug dealers used vulnerable Rohingya people as carriers of drugs.
The associated environmental destruction is causing ecological imbalance, climate change,
and long‐term economic loss (Hammer & Ahmed, 2020; UNDP, 2018). There is also no
development of infrastructure and resources in the area to accommodate the nearly two million
refugees and locals. Traffic jams, air pollution, degrading water levels, and sanitation and
electricity requirements all contribute to environmental imbalance and associated hardships for
the residents.
Annual examinations were disrupted in the primary, secondary, and higher secondary
schools as they were used as refugee shelters and centers at the time of the annual examination.
The Bangladesh Government does not allow Rohingya students admission into public schools;
however, a few Rohingya students have gained entry using fake identity cards, while local
students face difficulties gaining admission into the same schools and colleges due to
admission caps.
The Rohingya have become an economic burden on Bangladesh because there are
continuing finance shortages from international funding bodies (OCHA, 2021), which causes
financial uncertainty in Bangladesh, particularly when the world is on the brink of an
economic recession due to Covid‐19 related complications affecting economies around the
globe. Such a situation has dire consequences for the developing economy of Bangladesh. The
tourism industry, which normally contributes considerably to the national economy, is also
trending downwards due to the Rohingya influx at Cox's Bazar (Myat, 2018). Illegal access to
the job market where desperate Rohingyas sell their labor at a low rate undercuts the locals,
increasing unemployment in the area (Chakma, 2019; Choudury & Fazlulkader, 2019). Also,
the price of commodities and basic necessities, house rent, and transportation have increased
markedly (László, 2018). The lower‐income locals, as well as some middle‐class people face
economic hardships as a result of this local inflation, which is another reason for the enduring
conflict between the hosts and refugees.
Most importantly, this study reveals that the Rohingya do not get involved in militancy
within Bangladesh. There is no evidence of Rohingya involvement in recent militant activities
in Bangladesh, with no cases filed against them concerning militancy (Table 1). However, the
Bangladesh Government sees them as a potential threat to national security because of the
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demographic imbalance and the potential to become part of a militant group due to their
vulnerable situation making them ideal for recruitment into extremist groups (Martin
et al., 2018). National identity fraud is another security threat for Bangladesh as many Rohingya
have traveled overseas with fake Bangladeshi passports (Chakma, 2019; Mortoza, 2017). Also,
many Rohingya have assimilated into local society through the assistance, allegedly, of corrupt
politicians who target them to capture their votes during elections (Mortoza, 2017). Some
people of refugee origin work in different departments of the Bangladesh Government, and
they also become public representatives in local government and influential political leaders
(Mortoza, 2017), which is a worry for Bangladesh because their integration into the Bangladesh
population took place in illegal ways, and consequently these illegals may not uphold the
national interest but instead support their Rohingya interests.
The research suggests that a threat or possibility of an uprising has the potential to create
unrest in the camp, which could in turn affect the good name of the Cox's Bazar area. The
gathering of people during Genocide Remembrance Day in 2019 made the Bangladesh
Government anxious when it was clearly apparent that there was a demographic imbalance on
the streets. The two major parties in Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Awami League and BNP,
constantly accuse each other of diplomatic failure regarding the ineffectual processes for the
repatriation of the Rohingya to Myanmar. However, this question of repatriation also requires
the support of powerful international entities, namely the UN, China, India and the US
governments, to apply pressure on the Myanmar Government for their safe return.
The findings of this study suggest that some NGOs have unethical motives concerning
Rohingya welfare and also the Bangladesh Government. Many question the intentions of the
NGOs and INGOs, which seem to be keeping the Rohingya crisis alive for the purpose of
receiving funds for employment opportunities and the luxurious facilities that they can enjoy.
Also, the Bangladesh Government suspects that a few NGOs have created antigovernment
sentiments as part of their external agendas. Furthermore, most of the NGO expenditure is not
transparent.
Finally, the realistic conflict theory relates very well to the relationship between Rohingya
refugees and the local people in Bangladesh's Cox's Bazar. The movement of the Rohingya to
Bangladesh began in 1978 and continued to 2017 and even today. Many Rohingya youth in the
camps were born and grew up there and have never been to Myanmar. About a million people
have lived for a long time in a small place surrounded by barbed wire, which makes for strong
solidarity and cohesion among this out‐group of people. Bangladeshi locals complain that the
Rohingya settlement has had a substantial negative impact on their livelihoods. Thus, it creates
an “in‐group versus out‐group”conflict (LeVine & Campbell, 1972; Tajfel & Turner, 1979). The
locals and Rohingya refugees compete for limited resources in the local job market, and locals
continue to lose land that is used to shelter Rohingya refugees. According to McKenzie and
Gabriel (2017), Muzafer Sherif (1966), and Terhune and Matusitz (2016), this kind of
competition for limited and essential resources creates hostility towards host communities.
Zarate et al. (2004) argue that the threat of the in‐group's job security could create an imagined
threat that could cause a negative or stereotypical attitude towards the out‐group. The
Rohingya compete for the low‐wage laboring jobs and not all kinds of employment. However,
locals perceive the situation as being “Rohingyas are taking over local's jobs,”which is a
stereotyped attitude to the out‐group that then increases social distance between the two
groups. Many locals call the Rohingya “poisonous bail,”which can be described as a local
prejudice (Muzafer Sherif, 1966). A few socially integrated Rohingyas are in positions where
they have political power in the local government circles of Bangladesh, and according to
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Echebarria‐Echabe and Guede (2003), the host community feels the threat of losing political
power which is reinforced further by conspiracy theory.
CONCLUSION
The Rohingya conundrum is long‐standing, and no one sees an end to this crisis due to the
geopolitical complexities. Chinese and Indian interests in Myanmar have fashioned a
geopolitical status quo for this problem, which has hindered any chances of finding a solution.
As a result, Bangladesh has become a victim of the Rohingya crisis and continues to face
significant social, economic, and political challenges due to the presence of large numbers of
Rohingya refugees. As discussed, a number of changes have taken place as a consequence of
the refugee camps that have convoluted the lives and livelihoods of host communities in the
Cox's Bazar area, and drug trafficking has caused social disorders among locals. The
environmental damage and the strain on natural resources are affecting biodiversity losses and
are also affecting the local economy. The tourism industry is in decline and infrastructure is
damaged with development stagnated. The national security of Bangladesh is extremely
vulnerable due to the potential for predictable threats from Rohingya activities: passport fraud,
impending rebellion, and the influence of suspicious NGO activities. If the crisis remains
unsolved in the longer term, the likelihood of the situation remaining a security concern for
Bangladesh alone is unlikely, as it could expand to upset and destabilize the whole South Asian
region. I propose a few specific recommendations to improve the situation of the Rohingya
issue to enable reasonable policies in practice. First, the Bangladesh government should create
more employment opportunities for locals to minimize conflict, as sharing the labor market has
been a significant cause of disagreement. Second, international funding bodies should allocate
funds to support local low‐income families to improve the situation between two groups. Third,
the Bangladesh government should provide appropriate compensation to affected locals for any
damage caused to their plantation projects due to the settlement of Rohingya refugees. Fourth,
the infrastructural development in Cox's Bazar is essential for avoiding impacting locals'
livelihood severely by the massive refugee influx. Finally, it is crucial that international actors,
including China, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and organizations such as the UN and ASEAN,
work together to find a sustainable solution to the crisis. The status quo of the crisis caused an
extended stay of Rohingyas in Bangladesh could worsen Rohingya's plight, and the situation
could drive in a dangerous direction. It is essential to address this issue for the well‐being of the
displaced Rohingya community, as well as to restore Bangladesh's socioeconomic status, which
has been negatively impacted by the influx of refugees. Until a solution is found, Bangladesh,
the UN, and donor organizations must ensure that the Rohingya living in camps have safe and
habitable conditions.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The author sincerely thanks Dr. Bert Jenkins and Professor Alan Scott of the University of New
England, NSW, Australia.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT
The author declares no conflict of interest.
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ORCID
Iqthyer Uddin Md Zahed http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8424-8684
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AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY
Iqthyer Uddin Md Zahed holds a PhD in International Relations from the University of
New England, Australia. He conducts research on Asian politics, genocide, forced
migration, geopolitics, ethnic minority groups, conflict studies, refugee studies, digital
health, and child development. He works as a researcher at the Brain and Mind Centre,
University of Sydney, Australia.
How to cite this article: Zahed, I. U. M. (2023). Impact of the geopolitical status quo
vis‐à‐vis the Rohingya crisis on the social, economic, and political aspects of Bangladesh.
Asian Politics and Policy,15(4), 643–667. https://doi.org/10.1111/aspp.12716
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