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Agriculture & Forestry, Vol. 69 Issue 3: 105-130, 2023, Podgorica
105
Mijanović, D., Vujačić, D., Manojlović, B., Brajusković Popović, M., Spalević, V. (2023): Population dynamics
in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions and demographic transformations in Pljevlja
since the beginning of the 21st century. Agriculture and Forestry, 69 (3): 105-130.
doi:10.17707/AgricultForest.69.3.08
DOI: 10.17707/AgricultForest.69.3.08
Dragica MIJANOVIĆ1,
Dusko VUJAČIĆ1, Branka MANOJLOVIĆ1,
Mileva BRAJUSKOVIĆ POPOVIĆ
1
, Velibor SPALEVIĆ*1,
2
POPULATION DYNAMICS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF
MONTENEGRO: ECOLOGICAL TRANSITIONS AND
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS IN PLJEVLJA SINCE
THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY
SUMMARY
The paper deals with the demographic development of the northernmost
municipality in Montenegro, with a special emphasis on migration trends, which
have intensified since the second half of the last century. The municipality of
Pljevlja is specific in this regard because it had the highest growth in emigration
since the beginning of the 21st century in Montenegro, regardless of the fact that it
has natural potentials, which, unfortunately, have not been adequately used, so
the municipality is still classified as underdeveloped. The consequence of the
weak economic development of the municipality is the continuous decline in the
number of inhabitants, namely, Pljevlja’s share in the total population of
Montenegro decreased from 9.7% in 1961 to 4.2% in 2021. In the paper, we will
look at the ecological transitions and demographic transformations of the
municipality. By analyzing the demographic parameters, we will point out the
consequences of migration, which are directly reflected in the further
demographic development of the municipality. Analysis of the overall movement
of the population (natural movement and migration), the age-gender structure of
the municipality's population and rural population size will prove the set
hypotheses.
Keywords: economy, ecology, demographic development, emigration,
population structure, depopulation.
1
Dragica Mijanović, Dusko Vujačić, Branka Manojlović, Mileva Brajusković Popović, University
of Montenegro, Faculty of Philosophy, Study program Geography, Niksic, MONTENEGRO,
2Velibor Spalević (corresponding author: velibor.spalevic@gmail.com), University of Montenegro,
Biotechnical Faculty, Podgorica, MONTENEGRO
Notes: The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest. Authorship Form signed online.
Recieved:12/05/2023 Accepted:24/07/2023
Mijanović et al.
106
INTRODUCTION
The correlation between human development and human mobility is a
matter of intense debate and academic deliberation. A commonly held belief
asserts that global migration primarily stems from disparities in wealth and
developmental stages across regions. This perspective is mirrored in policy
frameworks and media narratives, wherein the lack of development and the
associated issues of poverty and conflict are generally attributed as significant, if
not the primary, drivers for migration from less affluent to more prosperous
nations, as well as for rural-to-urban migration within developing countries.
Consequently, the mitigation of such disparities through the enhancement of
economic growth in less privileged nations is often regarded as the most potent
approach to mitigate or address the phenomenon of international migration
(Böhning and Schloeter-Paredes, 1994; De Haas, 2007).
Depopulation and deagrarisation appeared as the main limiting factors for
rural development in Montenegro, and thus for the Municipality of Pljevlja.
These phenomena particularly came to the fore after the Second World War.
Industrialization has caused migration from rural areas to the administrative and
economic centres (Despotovic et al., 2015).
The population matters and corresponding policies have witnessed
significant transformations from the 20th to the 21st century. The swift expansion
of the global population, which seemed uncontrollable in the latter half of the 20th
century and was prominently addressed in population policies, has currently
shown a deceleration in its annual growth rates. Undeniably, while the yearly
surge in population numbers remains noteworthy, an average of 87 million
individuals have been incrementally included in the global populace each year
from 1981 to 2020 (United Nations, 2022).
The possibility of achieving zero population growth and reaching the peak
population might emerge before the conclusion of this century, albeit this notion
is presently under discussion (O’Sullivan, 2022). Despite rapid population growth
still occurring in sub-Saharan Africa and some other regions (mainly a few
countries in the Middle East and parts of South Asia, e.g., Yemen, Afghanistan,
Pakistan), most of the world’s population is now experiencing low fertility and,
consequently, population aging (United Nations, 2022; Goldstone & May, 2022).
The global landscape is progressively undergoing urbanization. Moreover,
an array of novel challenges has surfaced; encompassing matters like climate
change, emerging pandemics, global migration, and the movement of refugees
(Goldstone & May, 2022).
In addition to altering the emphasis, there has been a transformation in the
broader formulation of population policies, transitioning from interventions
rooted in demographics to the acknowledgment and promotion of reproductive
rights (Bernstein et al., 2022).
The interplay between demographic processes and the developmental stage
of a specific region exhibits a causal relationship. Within this intricate web of
interrelations, the needs and opportunities of the populace exert an influence on
spatial advancement. Conversely, the inherent and ongoing functional traits of a
given space exert an impact on shaping the trajectories of demographic processes.
Among the array of contemporary demographic challenges, the uneven spatial
Population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions…
107
dispersion of population stands out prominently. In the course of demographic or
other types of polarization, the existence of one or more focal points of
population or functions becomes imperative. More often than not, the capital city
assumes the role of a dominant pole, steering the development of the entire
territory. Frequently, the magnetic allure and potency of the capital outpace the
capacities of the rest of the nation, resulting in pronounced imbalances in
population and functionality. This resultant scenario not only exacerbates the
propagation of adverse population trends but also engenders fresh economic and
organizational predicaments (Filipovic et al., 2022).
The municipality of Pljevlja is located in the northernmost part of
Montenegro, with an area of 1,346 km², covering 9% of the country's territory
and is the third largest municipality in Montenegro (MONSTAT, 2021). The
average altitude of the municipality ranges from 1,000 to 1,200 m. An important
characteristic of the municipality is its peripheral position in relation to the rest of
the country, as evidenced by the fact that it is bypassed by all international road
routes, and even internal roads and the main tourist routes in the country. Such
position had a weighty impact on the economic development of the municipality,
regardless of significant natural potentials and mineral resources, and it caused
specific demographic trends, especially in the last decades of the 20th and the
beginning of this century.
During the former SFR Yugoslavia, industrial development began in
Pljevlja, which was one of the most underdeveloped municipalities in
Montenegro. First, in 1953, the "Suplja Stijena" lead and zinc flotation mine was
opened, a coal mine, then the agricultural enterprise PTK Pljevlja, the transport-
tourism company "Prevoz" - Pljevlja, the construction company "Gradjevinar",
the knitwear and clothing industry "Tara" and forest-industrial plant "Velimir
Jakic". For a short period of time (1975-1978), a cement factory worked as well,
but was closed due to the environmental problems it caused. In 1982, the most
important economic facility in the municipality, Thermal Power Plant Pljevlja,
began operating, which today, along with the coal mine, is the sole carrier of
economic development in the municipality.
The industrial development of the municipality in the second half of the
last century, caused large-scale migration from rural areas to the city of Pljevlja
thanks to the substantial demand for labor, which resulted in a significant
decrease in the number of residents in rural areas on one hand, and a high growth
in the number of residents in the city on the other. Regardless of the major
industrial and economic development, there were still large-scale migrations out
of the municipality, which the rates of natural increase could not compensate for,
thus, since the 80s of the last century there has been a greater decrease in the
number of inhabitants.
Since the second half of the last century, the population in the municipality
has decreased from 46,677 in 1961 to 35,806 in 2003. In the period 1981-2003,
the intensity of population decline has increased significantly compared to the
previous period (1961-1981). By comparing the data for the rural and urban
population, it is evident that the decrease in the population of the municipality is
mainly a consequence of the decrease in the rural population from 35,200 to
14,448, while in the same period (1961-2003) the number of the urban population
increased from 11,477 to 21,741. From the data on the number of inhabitants of
Mijanović et al.
108
rural settlements, the urban settlements (the city of Pljevlja and Gradac) and the
municipality as a whole, it is easy to conclude that internal rural-urban migration
was significantly more intense than emigration outside the borders of the
municipality, in which the municipality lost 8,871 inhabitants, because, in the
same period, rural settlements lost 20,752 inhabitants, while urban settlements
gained 10,264 inhabitants.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
Pljevlja is a city and seat of the municipality of the same name in
Montenegro. It is located in the north of the country (Figure 1) in the center of the
spacious Pljeval basin at the foot of the Golubinja hill. It lies on three rivers:
Breznica, Ćehotini and Vezišnica. The city is the center of the energy potential of
Montenegro, an important industrial, cultural and educational center.
Figure 1. Location of Pljevlja - Map showing major population centers in
Montenegro as well as parts of surrounding countries and the Adriatic Sea.
(Source: Google Earth; The World Factbook Washington, DC: Central
Intelligence Agency, 2021)
Population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions…
109
While scrutinizing migration patterns and their ramifications in the Pljevlja
municipality, conventional demographic techniques were employed. This
encompassed analysis, synthesis, and the comparative approach to unveil the
socio-economic dynamics of the region and the prevailing natural and
environmental factors. Statistical indicators were presented and manipulated
using mathematical and statistical methodologies. Microsoft Excel was utilized
for generating tables and graphs, supplemented by a comprehensive examination
of both international and domestic literature that delved into the intricacies of
migration's causes and consequences.
We applied a SWOT analysis as a strategic planning tool to assess the
internal and external factors affecting situation in the studied region. It provides a
structured framework for evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and
threats associated with a particular context. The primary purpose of conducting a
SWOT analysis was to gain a comprehensive understanding of the current state of
affairs, which can then guide decision-making and strategy development. It
provides a concise overview of the key aspects that will be explored in more
detail. Based on the analyzed causes of intensive emigration from the
municipality of Pljevlja, as well as the consequences it caused, the paper will
prove the following hypotheses:
that as a result of increased emigration, there was a significant decrease in
the number of inhabitants in the municipality, especially in rural areas;
that the economic collapse of the municipality since the 90s of the last
century significantly strengthened emigration outside the municipality;
that rural-urban migration movements, which were particularly intense in
the second half of the last century in the municipality, gained intensity at
the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century as a
consequence of the economic decline and bad ecological situation in the
municipality;
that Podgorica and coastal municipalities are the most attractive for
migrants;
that, due to the intensive emigration from the municipality as a whole, and
especially from the rural area, there were accelerated changes in the age-
gender structure of the population;
that as a result of emigration there was a demographic fragmentation of rural
settlements.
Economic characteristics of the municipality today
The political events in the 90s of the last century, leading to the
disintegration of the former SFR Yugoslavia, which included the former SR
Montenegro, caused major changes both in the economic sphere and in other
segments, which was reflected to a large extent in the demographic development
of the municipality. The economic sanctions to which the state was exposed at the
time caused tectonic changes in the economy, which was in crisis for many years,
Mijanović et al.
110
resulting in the shutdown of a large number of industrial companies in
Montenegro, which certainly did not bypass any of the less developed
municipalities. Along with the decline of industrial companies in the so-called
period of transition went the privatization of companies as well, which caused a
rather chaotic situation, because capacity reductions and massive layoffs
followed. As a result of all that, in the municipality of Pljevlja, out of a dozen
economic entities in which, according to data from 1984, 14,000 residents
worked, only the Pljevlja Coal Mine and the Thermal Power Plant are in
operation today. Since then, Prevoz Pljevlja, Monter, Trikotaza, many
agricultural enterprises, Cementara, Tara, Sloga, Ciglana, Gradjevinar and 1.
Decembar have all been shut down. The unique Sumarstvo was divided. Some of
the listed companies were given more modern names after privatization, such as
Optel-Vektra, Castelo-Montenegro, Monterkod. New company names did not
mean new production capacities, on the contrary" (https://tvpljevlja.me/). In the
meantime, due to the closure of companies and privatization, which necessarily
meant a reduction in the number of jobs, in 2020 the number of employees was
5,063 (https://tvpljevlja.me/), which is a little more than 1/3 of the employees
from 80s of the last century.
A significant surplus of employees had been solved mainly by regular or
early retirement, so the municipality came to a situation where it has a large
number of retirees, 6,691 (https://tvpljevlja.me/), which exceeds the number of
workers, presenting an additional burden on employees and their earnings, if we
add to that a significant number of unemployed persons (over 3,100) and other
dependents. These trends in economic development in the municipality also
determined the course of demographic trends to a significant extent, which has
been clearly reflected since the 80s of the last century, first in the population
decline, the rates of natural migration and finally in significant changes in the age
structure of the population.
Environmental characteristics of the Municipality
Pljevlja is the municipality in Montenegro whose water, air and soil are the
most polluted. Moreover, according to the level of pollution, Pljevlja is the
European record holder. One of the biggest polluters of Pljevlja, together with the
Coal Mine, is the Pljevlja Thermal Power Plant, which was put into operation in
the early eighties of the last century. The plant is the main producer of industrial
waste. The total annual production of waste for the territory of Pljevlja amounts
to about 571 thousand tons of waste, of which 280-300 thousand tons are ash,
created by burning coal as an energy fuel for power plants. In 30 years of
operation, the Thermal Power Plant burned about 35 million tons of coal, of
which it deposited 12 million tons of ash and slag waste. The rest of the waste
consists of waste oil, mazut, waste paint, sludge from thermal power plant and
other waste. Huge quantities of slag and furnace dust are not classified as
hazardous waste, but require special handling. Numerous analyzes show an
increased content of metals, fluorine and boron in relation to the maximum
Population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions…
111
allowed concentrations. Elevated values of radioactivity were also recorded, but
they were below the maximum permissible limits. The Center for
Ecotoxicological Research performed a characterization of the ash and it is
classified as hazardous waste due to its high pH value, which is a parameter for
determining the quality of drinking water, as well as surface water (Zagadjenje u
opstini Pljevlja, Slucaj Termoelektrane, 2014).
One of the biggest environmental problems in Pljevlja is the high degree of
air pollution with floating particles. The measured concentrations of pollutants at
the measuring point in the urban part of Pljevlja mostly reflect the influence of
local sources, primarily collective boiler rooms. The state of the environment in
that northern municipality is a consequence of the development of the economy,
the exploitation of natural resources, the construction of settlements, roads, and
other facilities. The analysis of its current state shows that mining and electricity
production have a dominant influence, leading to large-scale degradation,
pollution and changes in the configuration of the terrain and landscape. All of this
causes major pollution of the air, surface and underground water, soil degradation
and pollution, accumulation of waste, deterioration of the population's health, but
also the destruction of flora and fauna in that area. Conducting a strategic
environmental impact assessment ensures the compliance of the activities defined
by the plan with the applicable legal regulations and state planning documents in
Montenegro. It assessed possible negative impacts on the environment. The
Spatial Plan of Montenegro and the National Strategy of Sustainable
Development defined the preservation of the quality of the environment and the
improvement of natural values, the uniqueness of the space, cultural and natural
heritage of Montenegro, as well as general goals in the field of environmental
protection (Izvjestaj o strateskoj procjeni uticaja na zivotnu sredinu za PUP
Pljevlja, 2018.).
In Pljevlja, there are about 1,100 different individual boiler rooms within
family houses, the power of which are approximately known and ranges from 20-
50 kW for about 1,050 rooms to 50-100 kW for about 50 rooms, with an
estimated annual consumption of about 8,000 tons of coal. It is estimated that
there are about 2,500 individual fireplaces that use a stove, and for an average
consumption of 3 tons of coal per household, the annual consumption amounts to
7,500 tons of coal. Furthermore, it is important to note that a significant number
of households have switched to heating using pellets as fuel, but the number of
these fireplaces is not yet known. Due to the high price of coal, many households
use wood as fuel, for which there is no data on the amount consumed (source:
Municipality of Pljevlja).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
In order to provide a snapshot of the situation, helping the audience
understand the broader context and issues at hand we applied SWOT analyses in
some segments with the idea to analyze complex information into a few key
points, making it easier to grasp the main factors influencing the subject. The
Mijanović et al.
112
SWOT framework prompts strategic thinking by categorizing factors into internal
(strengths and weaknesses) and external (opportunities and threats) aspects. The
insights gained from the SWOT analysis can inform decision-making processes
by identifying areas for improvement, potential growth, and potential challenges.
The SWOT Analysis for Economic Characteristics and Environmental
Characteristics of the Municipality of Pljevlja are presented in the following
presentation.
SWOT Analysis for Economic Characteristics of the Municipality of Pljevlja
Strengths:
Resource Utilization: Historically, the
municipality had a diversified industrial
base with several active economic
entities, including the Pljevlja Coal
Mine and Thermal Power Plant.
Industrial Legacy: The past presence
of various industries, including
manufacturing and agriculture,
highlights the region's potential for
economic development.
Historical Resilience: The municipality
survived the tumultuous political and
economic events of the 90s, displaying a
degree of resilience in adapting to
changes.
Weaknesses:
Industrial Decline: The disintegration of
the former Yugoslavia and subsequent
economic sanctions led to the closure of
numerous industries, resulting in a loss of
jobs and economic vibrancy.
Lack of Diversification: Over-reliance on
a few key industries, such as coal and
power, has left the municipality vulnerable
to economic shocks.
Workforce Imbalance: The closure of
companies and privatization efforts has left
the municipality with a significant
imbalance between retirees, unemployed
individuals, and active workers.
Opportunities:
Rejuvenation Efforts: The decline of
former industries provides an
opportunity to explore new sectors,
fostering economic diversification and
growth.
Investment Attraction: With proper
strategies and incentives, the
municipality can attract investment in
emerging industries, creating new job
opportunities.
Re-skilling Workforce: Reskilling and
upskilling initiatives can equip the
workforce with new skills required for
emerging industries, promoting
employment and adaptability.
Threats:
Economic Instability: A heavy reliance on
a shrinking industrial base, coupled with
unemployment and workforce imbalances,
poses a threat to the economic stability of
the municipality.
Population Exodus: The lack of job
prospects and economic opportunities may
lead to a continued outmigration of
working-age population, aggravating
demographic challenges.
Depopulation Spiral: Economic decline
can lead to reduced services, infrastructure
deterioration, and a further decline in the
quality of life, potentially creating a self-
reinforcing cycle of depopulation.
The economic characteristics of the Municipality of Pljevlja exhibit a
complex interplay of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. While the
decline of key industries presents challenges, it also opens doors for renewal and
diversification. Strategic efforts to attract investment, re-skill the workforce, and
Population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions…
113
diversify the economic base could help counteract the threats of depopulation and
economic instability, paving the way for a more resilient and prosperous future.
SWOT Analysis for Environmental Characteristics of the Municipality of
Pljevlja
Strengths:
Awareness: The assessment clearly
highlights the severe environmental issues
faced by the municipality, creating
awareness for potential action.
Detailed Data: The analysis provides
specific data on pollutants, waste
production, and environmental impact,
offering a comprehensive understanding of
the situation.
Legal Framework: The existence of legal
regulations and state planning documents
for environmental protection provides a
foundation for addressing the issues.
Weaknesses:
Pollution Magnitude: Pljevlja is
recognized as a European record holder
for pollution, indicating the seriousness
of the problem.
Limited Clean Energy Use: The
prevalence of coal, oil, and other
pollutants in heating methods suggests a
reliance on non-renewable energy
sources, contributing to pollution.
Lack of Consumption Data:
Insufficient data on wood consumption
for heating complicates the assessment
of its impact on pollution.
Opportunities:
Transition to Cleaner Energy: The shift
towards using pellets as a fuel source
presents an opportunity to reduce pollution
and improve air quality.
Strategic Environmental Impact
Assessment: Conducting a comprehensive
assessment allows for identifying potential
negative impacts and addressing them
before implementation.
National Strategies: Alignment with the
National Strategy of Sustainable
Development encourages efforts to
preserve environmental quality and
improve natural values.
Threats:
Health Implications: Pollution
contributes to deteriorating population
health, which can lead to increased
healthcare costs and decreased quality of
life.
Economic Impact: Ongoing pollution
may discourage tourism and investments
due to concerns over environmental
conditions.
Flora and Fauna: Environmental
degradation poses a threat to local
biodiversity, affecting both plant and
animal life in the area.
The SWOT analysis conducted on the environmental characteristics of the
Municipality of Pljevlja reveals a complex web of challenges and opportunities
that require immediate attention. The strengths lie in the heightened awareness
generated by the assessment, shining a light on the pressing environmental
concerns that demand action. The presence of detailed data and a legal framework
for environmental protection serves as a foundation for addressing these issues
effectively.
However, the weaknesses underscore the gravity of the situation. Pljevlja's
reputation as a European record holder for pollution emphasizes the urgent need
for intervention. Reliance on non-renewable energy sources and the lack of
consumption data for certain fuels only amplify the challenges at hand.
Mijanović et al.
114
The opportunities present a ray of hope amidst these challenges. The
potential transition to cleaner energy sources, such as pellets, offers a chance to
mitigate pollution and enhance air quality. The significance of conducting
strategic environmental impact assessments cannot be underestimated, allowing
proactive identification and mitigation of negative consequences. Aligning with
national sustainable development strategies further reinforces the commitment to
preserving environmental quality and natural values.
Nonetheless, threats loom large, warning of the consequences of inaction.
Pollution's adverse effects on public health, including increased healthcare costs
and diminished quality of life, are a stark reminder of the urgency. Economic
repercussions, including reduced tourism and investment due to environmental
concerns, cannot be ignored. Equally important is the threat posed to local flora
and fauna, underscoring the delicate balance that has been disrupted by
environmental degradation.
In sum, this SWOT analysis illuminates the intricate interplay of forces
shaping Pljevlja's environmental landscape. It underscores the need for a
collective effort to harness strengths, address weaknesses, capitalize on
opportunities, and counter threats. Only through a comprehensive and
coordinated approach can the municipality pave the way toward a more
sustainable and resilient future, where both the environment and its inhabitants
thrive.
Characteristics of demographic development since the beginning of the
20th century
The trend of population decline that intensified since the 1980s continued
at the beginning of this century, with a slightly lower intensity (table 1).
According to the population estimate data for 2021
3
, there were 25,917
inhabitants in the municipality of Pljevlja, which indicates the presence of
emigration and the continuation of the growing trend of negative rates of natural
increase. In comparison to the previous period, a slightly lower intensity of the
decline in the rural population, but also a major decline in the urban population
are visible, which is an indicator that the bad economic situation in the
municipality and city caused the intensification of emigration from the urban area
to other municipalities and beyond the borders of the country. As seen from the
data in the table, the rural population dropped to only 31.7% compared to the
second half of the last century (1961), thus the rural areas are already
demographically emptied with mostly elderly households, causing lower intensity
of population decline.
Mobility is one of the basic characteristics of the population. Migration has
been present in the territory of the municipality of Pljevlja since ancient times.
3
Monstat, Table: Estimated number of inhabitants in the middle of 2021.
Population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions…
115
Depending on the historical, political and economic conditions, sometimes there
was stronger emigration, sometimes immigration.
Table 1: Population trends of the municipality of Pljevlja in the period 1961-2011
Source: Base study for the needs of PPCG Demographic Development, 2018; page 7; 26;
calculations
Today's migration on the territory of the municipality is mostly economic
in nature. There are fewer and fewer internal rural-urban migrations, and more
and more those outside the borders of the municipality and even the country.
Mostly young or younger middle-aged population leaves off for a better life
because the rather bleak economic situation in the municipality does not offer
them basic living conditions. Due to the impossibility of employment, they are
unable to form a family which is reflected in other segments of demographic
development.
Due to the lack of adequate data
4
, the only way to find out the number of
emigrants from the municipality is through the overall movement of the
population and natural increase. The disadvantage of this method is that it is not
possible to analyze the types or patterns of migration. According to the results of
the recalculation (Table 2), the municipality of Pljevlja has lost 30,293
inhabitants through emigration since the second half of the last century, of which
6,287 in the period 2003-2021.
Table 2: Migration balance of the municipality of Pljevlja in the period 1961-
2021
Municipality
Pljevlja
1961-1981
1981-2003
2003-2021
Total movement
-3361
-6403
-9889
Natural increase
9955
4287
-3602
Migration balance
-13316
-10690
-6287
Source: Base study for the needs of PPCG Demographic Development, 2018; page 16; Table -
estimated population size in 2021: Statistical yearbook for 2021, recalculations
Unfortunately, our statistical office does not have records of external
migration (outside the country's borders), so we also arrive at the number of
4
The last official census in 2011 did not process migrations, and Monstat - the Public
Statistical Office only has records of internal migration in Montenegro since 2008, while
we do not have any official data for external migration, so it is impossible to carry out
serious analyses.
Mijanović et al.
116
emigrants since the last census in 2011 by calculation, thanks to the fact that
internal migration has been recorded since 2011. By recalculating the ratio of the
total movement of the municipality's population from 2011 to 2021 (-4,869), the
natural increase (-2,402)
5
in that period and the migration balance of internal
migration (-1,647), we arrived at the data that the total migration balance of the
municipality is -2 467 inhabitants. This indicates that 820 inhabitants of the
municipality of Pljevlja left the country, which means that the volume of internal
migration to other municipalities in Montenegro is significantly larger. In the
observed period, 2,730 inhabitants migrated to other municipalities in the
country. The largest number of migrants from Pljevlja moved to the capital
Podgorica (1,628) and to the coastal municipalities: Budva, Bar, Herceg Novi,
Kotor, Tivat and slightly less to Ulcinj. When it comes to continental cities,
Niksic and Danilovgrad were most attractive for migrants after Podgorica. Cities
from the surrounding areas, that is, from the northern region of the country, to
which this municipality also belongs, were least attractive to migrants (Table 3).
Table 3. Migration from the municipality of Pljevlja to other municipalities in the
period 2011-2021
Source: Monstat – Tables: Internal migration in Montenegro in: 2011, 2012, 2013, 201, 2015,
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021
5
Data from statistical yearbooks in 2016 and 2021
Population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions…
117
Such directions of internal migration are quite understandable because the
population, as already emphasized, today mainly migrates for economic reasons,
and the most economically developed part of Montenegro, besides the
municipality of Podgorica, are the coastal municipalities.
Internal migration in the opposite direction - towards the municipality of
Pljevlja was significantly smaller in volume (1,083 inhabitants) in the observed
period (2011-2021). The largest number of migrants towards Pljevlja is from the
municipality of Podgorica (545), then from the coastal municipalities: Budva,
Bar, Herceg Novi and Kotor. The continental municipalities, Niksic and Bijelo
Polje had a slightly higher number of migrants towards the municipality of
Pljevlja (Table 4). We do not have data on whether these are seasonal migrants
(migrants who spent a part of the year in other municipalities for work), or
whether they are returnees to their birthplace who spent their working life in
another place, and are returning to their home as retirees, so we cannot provide
detailed analyses.
Table 4. Migration from other municipalities to the municipality of Pljevlja in the
period 2011-2021
Source: Monstat – Tables: Internal migration in Montenegro in: 2011, 2012, 2013, 201, 2015,
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021
Mijanović et al.
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Birth rates in the municipality declined from moderate in the period 1966-
1970 down to low levels in the period 2017-2021, while mortality rates in the
same period rose from low to very high, resulting in negative rates of natural
increase even in the first years of 21st century with a tendency of significant
growth (graph). As a consequence of this trend, we observe a decrease in
population in the municipality on two grounds - natural movement and
emigration, which threatens further demographic development, especially in rural
areas, and leads to their complete depopulation.
Graph 1: Rates of natural population movement of the municipality of Pljevlja in
the period 1966-2021 (Data source: Basic study - Demographic development,
page 12, Statistical yearbook for 2021)
There were significant changes in the age-gender structure of the
municipality's population from the second half of last century to the end of the
first decade of this century. The gender structure of the population as a whole was
satisfactory in both observed periods, however, as observed in larger age groups,
there is a noticeable difference in the middle-aged population group in the two
observed periods. In the first period in 1961, due to the consequences of the
World War II, the rate of masculinity was slightly lower (89.6), while in the
second observed period it was significantly higher compared to the previous
period and even higher than the rate of femininity. This is a consequence of
migration movements from rural areas where, as a rule, more of the male
workforce remains, while the female population moves out. This problem is
present in all Montenegrin villages, which significantly affects the reproduction
of the population, because in the villages, on family estates, mostly male
workforce remains, which, due to the lack of female population, is unable to form
a family.
Population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions…
119
Table 5. Masculinity rates of municipality of Pljevlja in 1961 and 2011
Source: Base study for the needs of PPCG Demographic Development, 2018; page 39.
Apart from gender, significant changes also occurred in the age structure of
the population. In the sixties of the last century, the population of the
municipality was categorized as particularly young, with as many as 47.6%
young and 8.65% old. Thanks to the large emigration that affected the decrease in
the birth rates and the increase in the mortality rates, resulting in negative rates of
natural increase, the age structure underwent significant changes, so in 2011 the
share of young people amounted to only 21.5%, while the share of old increased
to 24.5%, which indicates the old demographic age of the population. It should be
emphasized that the age structure of the female population of the municipality is
less favorable than that of the male population, which is a consequence, as
already mentioned, of the greater emigration of the female population.
Table 6. Age structure of the population of the municipality of Pljevlja in the
period 1961-2011
Source: Base study for the needs of PPCG Demographic Development, 2018; page 50.
Graph 2: Population of the municipality of Pljevlja by larger age groups in 1961
and 2011
Mijanović et al.
120
The fact that the municipality of Pljevlja is among the oldest municipalities
in Montenegro, with an average population age of 41.8 years and an age index
value of 113.9, speaks volumes that the situation in the age structure of the
population is alarming, that is, it is high time to take measures of appropriate
demographic-population policies, otherwise a large part of the northern region, to
which the municipality of Pljevlja belongs, will lose all inhabitants in the coming
decades.
Table 7. Demographic age index of population of Montenegro
Source: Base study for the needs of PPCG Demographic Development, 2018; page 52.
In the middle of the last century, share of rural population amounted to as
much as 75.4% in the total population of the municipality, and by 2011,
according to the results of the last census, its share fell to 37.2%. This decline is a
consequence of mass rural-urban migration caused by the industrialization of the
municipality after the 1960s. Another significant consequence of this process is
population fragmentation of villages. In 1961, there were no settlements without
inhabitants in the municipality, while in 2011 there were 5. As can be seen from
Population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions…
121
table no.8, from 1961 to 2011, the number of settlements with the smallest
number of inhabitants (0-25) had the greatest growth, from 1 to 53, then the
number of settlements with 26-50 inhabitants from 4 to 29 and the number of
settlements with 50-100 inhabitants from 29 to 39. Therefore, the category of
settlements with less than 100 inhabitants increased its share from 21.6% to
80.3%. In the same period, the number of medium-sized settlements (category of
settlements 101-200 inhabitants and 201-300 inhabitants) decreased from 49 to
26, i.e. from 36 to 6, and their share from 54.1% to 20.4%.
Table 8. Population size of villages in the Pljevlja municipality in 1961 and 2011
Source: Monstat- Census 2003- comparative overview of population size in 1948, 1953, 1961,
1971, 1981, 1991 and 2003, data by settlements, vol. 9; First census results in 2011
GAP, Trend, PESTEL and SWOT Analysis for the Demographic
Development in Pljevlja
Based on the inputs and initial results of our research we conducted GAP,
Trend, PESTEL and SWOT Analysis for the Demographic Development in
Pljevlja. Findings are summarized and presented in the following chapters: GAP
Analysis, Trend Analysis, PESTEL Analysis, SWOT Analysis for the
Demographic Development in Pljevlja.
GAP Analysis
Goal was to analyze the demographic development of the municipality of
Pljevlja and identify gaps between current trends and desired outcomes for
population dynamics, economic growth, and environmental sustainability.
1.Demographic Development Gap:
Current Situation: The population of Pljevlja has been declining,
particularly in rural areas, due to emigration driven by economic challenges and
an ageing population. The gender and age structure of the population has shifted
unfavorably, impacting future demographic trends.
Desired Outcome: Stabilize and potentially increase the population by
implementing measures to attract and retain young individuals and families.
Mijanović et al.
122
Address the gender imbalance and create a more balanced age distribution for
sustainable growth.
2.Economic Diversification Gap:
Current Situation: Economic reliance on a few industries, notably mining
and power generation, has led to job losses, limited opportunities, and economic
stagnation. The closure of various companies and lack of innovation have
hindered economic growth.
Desired Outcome: Diversify the local economy by promoting
entrepreneurship, investing in new industries, and creating a business-friendly
environment. Encourage innovation and skill development to generate diverse
employment opportunities.
3.Environmental Sustainability Gap:
Current Situation: High levels of pollution from industrial activities,
particularly the thermal power plant, have degraded the environment and
impacted residents' health. The municipality's heavy reliance on resource-
intensive industries contributes to environmental degradation.
Desired Outcome: Implement stricter environmental regulations; invest in
pollution control technologies, and transition towards cleaner and more
sustainable economic activities. Improve air and water quality to enhance
residents' quality of life and attract potential newcomers.
4.Infrastructure and Technology Gap:
Current Situation: Insufficient technological advancements in the
municipality have hindered economic growth and discouraged young people from
staying. Limited technological infrastructure has contributed to the lack of
diversified industries.
Desired Outcome: Invest in digital infrastructure, provide access to modern
technologies, and offer training programs to develop a skilled workforce. Foster
innovation and technological progress to attract tech-savvy individuals and
industries.
5.Policy and Governance Gap:
Current Situation: Lack of effective demographic-population policies and
poor governance has contributed to migration, economic decline, and
environmental challenges. Fragmented policies hinder holistic solutions.
Desired Outcome: Develop comprehensive demographic-population
policies that address economic, social, and environmental aspects. Enhance local
governance to implement and enforce policies effectively, fostering collaboration
among stakeholders.
6.Social and Cultural Gap:
Current Situation: Changing cultural values and perceptions, along with an
ageing population, have contributed to migration trends. The decline in rural
populations and changes in community dynamics are affecting social cohesion.
Desired Outcome: Promote the value of rural life, offer incentives for
families to stay or relocate, and invest in community development. Nurture a
sense of pride in local culture, history, and traditions to foster community bonds.
Population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions…
123
The GAP analysis reveals significant disparities between the current state
of population dynamics, economic conditions, and environmental sustainability in
Pljevlja and the desired outcomes. To bridge these gaps, the municipality must
adopt a multidimensional approach that integrates economic diversification,
environmental protection, infrastructure development, policy reform, and
community engagement. This comprehensive strategy aims to create a more
balanced and sustainable future for Pljevlja, focusing on attracting and retaining a
diverse and vibrant population while ensuring economic prosperity and ecological
well-being.
Trend Analysis
Demographic Trends:
Population Decline: The population of Pljevlja has shown a consistent
decline over the years. From 1961 to 2021, the municipality's share in
Montenegro's total population dropped from 9.7% to 4.2%.
Rural-Urban Shift: The demographic landscape has shifted from
predominantly rural (75.4% rural population in 1960s) to urban dominance
(37.2% rural population in 2011), resulting in rural depopulation.
Age Structure Changes: The age structure has transitioned from a
particularly young population in the 1960s (47.6% young, 8.65% old) to an
ageing population with reduced share of young individuals (21.5% young, 24.5%
old in 2011).
Economic Trends:
Industrial Development: Industrialization efforts in the mid-20th century
led to significant growth in Pljevlja, with the establishment of lead, zinc, coal,
and power industries. However, economic challenges arose post-1990s due to the
collapse of former Yugoslavia and economic sanctions.
Economic Decline: The economic collapse in the 1990s and the transition
period led to the shutdown of several companies and industries. The
municipality's workforce reduced from around 14,000 in the 1980s to 5,063
employees in 2020.
Environmental Trends:
Environmental Degradation: The intensive industrial activities, especially
from the coal mine and thermal power plant, have caused significant
environmental degradation. High levels of pollution have led to poor air quality,
water contamination, and health concerns.
Resource Intensity: The continued reliance on coal as an energy source has
contributed to substantial waste generation, including ash and slag. Pollution
from these sources has contributed to environmental problems.
Migration Trends: Internal Migration: The industrialization phase led to
rural-urban migration, causing shifts from rural areas to the city of Pljevlja.
However, this internal migration was more intense than emigration outside the
municipality.
Emigration: Since the second half of the 20th century, there has been
significant emigration from the municipality, particularly due to the economic
Mijanović et al.
124
decline. Podgorica and coastal municipalities are the most attractive destinations
for migrants.
Natural Increase Trends:
Decline in Birth Rates: Birth rates have declined over the years,
particularly evident from the 1960s to the 2010s. The declining birth rates,
coupled with increasing mortality rates, have resulted in negative rates of natural
increase.
Age-Gender Structure Trends:
Gender Imbalance: Migration patterns have contributed to a higher gender
imbalance, with more male population remaining due to work opportunities,
leading to a higher masculinity rate.
Ageing Population: The age-gender structure has shifted towards an ageing
population, with a significant decrease in the proportion of young individuals and
an increase in the proportion of older individuals.
Spatial Distribution Trends:
Population Fragmentation: The population distribution has experienced
fragmentation, with a decline in medium-sized settlements (101-300 inhabitants)
and an increase in settlements with fewer than 100 inhabitants.
Economic Diversification Trends:
Dependency on Industries: Economic diversification has not been
achieved, resulting in over-reliance on a few industries like mining and power
generation. The closure of various companies has hindered economic growth and
opportunities. These trends highlight the complex interplay between demographic
changes, economic shifts, environmental degradation, and migration patterns in
Pljevlja. Analyzing these trends helps identify the root causes of the challenges
faced by the municipality and inform potential strategies for addressing them.
PESTEL Analysis
Taking into account the aforementioned analyses, results and previous
discussions, the following PESTEL analysis was performed.
Political factors:
National Policies: Montenegro's national policies on economic
development, infrastructure, and migration greatly impact the demographic
changes in Pljevlja. Government decisions regarding incentives for businesses,
investment, and regional development can influence migration patterns.
Local Governance: The policies and strategies of Pljevlja's local
government regarding economic diversification, job creation, and infrastructure
development can affect population trends. Effective governance can encourage
people to stay in the area.
Economic factors:
Industrial Decline: The closure of numerous industrial companies in the
municipality, including factories and mining operations, has led to job losses and
decreased economic opportunities. This has contributed to migration, particularly
of young and skilled workers seeking employment elsewhere.
Population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions…
125
Economic Opportunities: The lack of diverse economic opportunities,
including industries beyond mining and power generation, affects the
attractiveness of the municipality for residents. A lack of job prospects can drive
people to migrate to more economically vibrant areas.
Sociocultural factors:
Migration Trends: Changing cultural values and perceptions about quality
of life, education, and healthcare can influence migration. A preference for urban
living and better amenities in other regions may encourage migration away from
Pljevlja.
Ageing Population: The increasing proportion of elderly individuals in the
population can impact community dynamics, healthcare services, and social
support systems. Aged populations often experience lower birth rates and higher
dependency ratios.
Technological factors:
Limited Technological Advancements: Insufficient technological
development and innovation in the municipality can lead to reduced economic
opportunities and hinder the creation of new industries. Lack of technological
infrastructure might also discourage younger individuals from staying.
Environmental factors:
Pollution and Health Concerns: High levels of pollution, including air and
water pollution, can lead to health problems and negatively affect residents'
quality of life. Environmental degradation can make the municipality less
attractive for families and young people.
Natural Resource Dependence: Economic reliance on industries like
mining and power generation can degrade the environment, contributing to
pollution and resource depletion. Transitioning to more sustainable economic
activities could alleviate this issue.
Legal factors:
Environmental Regulations: Strict or relaxed enforcement of
environmental regulations can impact industrial operations, pollution levels, and
health outcomes. Stringent regulations can lead to closures or relocations of
polluting industries, influencing migration patterns.
Migration Policies: National and regional migration policies can impact
the ease of movement for individuals within the country. Favorable migration
policies could encourage skilled individuals to stay or return to Pljevlja.
The population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro,
particularly in Pljevlja, are influenced by a complex interplay of political,
economic, sociocultural, technological, environmental, and legal factors. The
municipality's history of industrial decline, pollution, and limited economic
diversification has led to population decline and migration. To address these
challenges, a holistic approach is required, including economic diversification,
job creation, environmental remediation, and infrastructure development.
Limiting factors for the development of rural areas are depopulation and
deagrarization (Despotovic et al., 2020). A comprehensive demographic-
Mijanović et al.
126
population policy should aim to retain and attract residents, especially young
individuals, while balancing the needs of an ageing population.
SWOT Analysis for the Demographic Development in Pljevlja
Strengths:
Natural Resources: Pljevlja possesses
significant natural resources, including
mineral deposits (lead, zinc, coal) that
historically supported industrial growth.
Strategic Location: Despite its
peripheral position, Pljevlja's location
offers potential for tourism, with its
mountainous terrain and natural
landscapes.
Historical Industrial Base: The presence
of industries like coal mining and power
generation has historically provided
employment opportunities.
Educational Institutions: Presence of
educational institutions can potentially
contribute to human capital
development.
Weaknesses:
Economic Dependence: Overreliance on a
few industries has made the municipality
vulnerable to economic fluctuations and
crises.
Environmental Degradation: Heavy
industrial activities have led to severe
environmental pollution, affecting air,
water, and soil quality.
Demographic Ageing: A shift towards an
ageing population with a declining birth
rate poses challenges for future population
sustainability.
Lack of Economic Diversification: Closure
of companies and limited economic
diversification have resulted in reduced job
opportunities and economic decline.
Limited Infrastructure: Lack of modern
infrastructure and transportation
connections has hindered economic growth
and development.
Opportunities:
Tourism Potential: Utilizing the natural
landscapes for eco-tourism and outdoor
activities could attract visitors and
generate income.
Renewable Energy: Transitioning
towards renewable energy sources could
create new industries and job
opportunities.
Environmental Remediation: Addressing
environmental degradation can improve
quality of life, attract investment, and
promote sustainable growth.
Education and Innovation: Enhancing
educational institutions can contribute to
skilled workforce development and
innovation.
Regional Collaboration: Collaborating
with neighboring municipalities and
regions can lead to joint initiatives for
economic development.
Threats:
Emigration and Brain Drain: Ongoing
emigration, especially of the younger
population, can lead to a shrinking
workforce and reduced economic activity.
Economic Decline: Economic downturns
or global economic shifts can exacerbate
the existing economic challenges.
Unsustainable Resource Use: Continued
reliance on non-renewable resources
without sustainable practices could deplete
resources and worsen environmental issues.
Environmental Regulations: Stricter
environmental regulations could impose
additional costs on industries and limit
economic activities.
Competition from Other Regions:
Migration patterns towards more
economically developed regions may
persist, further depleting the workforce.
Population dynamics in the mountainous areas of Montenegro: ecological transitions…
127
While natural resources and historical industries have been strengths, the
environmental degradation and economic dependence pose significant challenges.
To address these issues and leverage opportunities, a comprehensive approach is
needed, including economic diversification, environmental remediation,
infrastructure development, and collaboration with neighboring regions. This
analysis underscores the need for sustainable strategies to ensure a balanced and
prosperous demographic future for Pljevlja.
CONCLUSIONS
The paper presents the impact of economic and environmental events on
population migration from Pljevlja since the beginning of the 21st century. We
started from the hypothesis that the economic collapse of the municipality in the
90s of the last century and the worrying ecological situation in the municipality
significantly influenced the increased emigration outside the borders of the
municipality, resulting in the fact that the number of inhabitants of the
municipality of Pljevlja has almost halved since the second half of the last
century – to be exact, only 55.5% of the population from 1961 lives on the
territory of the municipality today.
The main cause for this alteration in the number of inhabitants in the
municipality is migration, which caused major negative changes in further
demographic development. Emigration of the young and younger middle-aged
population resulted in a sudden drop in the rate of natural increase, acquiring
negative values at the century’s beginning with a tendency for further drop, which
has a negative impact on the reproduction not only of the rural population, (which
is certainly significantly more endangered) but also of the municipality as a
whole.
Since the second half of the last century, in the municipality of Pljevlja, as
well as, indeed, whole Montenegro, there have been substantial changes in the
relationship between the rural and urban population, i.e. the transformation of the
agricultural population into a non-agricultural population, which had positive
effects in the initial phase - however, today, due to the spontaneity of that
process, the agricultural population was reduced to mostly elderly households.
It is about time for the state to start implementing an appropriate
demographic-population policy, which would introduce measures to stop
emigration, raise the birth rates, especially in the municipalities of the North and
a large part of the Central region, and, ultimately, spatially redistribute the
population more evenly, thus relieving the overpopulated parts of the country on
the one hand (Podgorica and the Coastal region), and retaining the nowadays very
questionable reproductive base in the Northern region on the other.
We stand at a pivotal juncture in the demographic trajectory of Pljevlja, a
municipality rich in history, resources, and potential. The challenges that have
beset us are formidable, but within these challenges are opportunity to transform
municipality into an example of sustainable growth, resilience, and prosperity.
Mijanović et al.
128
It is time for coordinated, strategic, and proactive action. The interplay of
economic forces, environmental concerns, and migration patterns necessitates a
comprehensive approach that transcends short-term fixes. The government/s and
local authorities should work hand in hand, with foresight and determination, to
drive forward a holistic agenda for Pljevlja's demographic rejuvenation.
1. Economic Diversification and Innovation: The time has come to break
free from the chains of mono-industrial dependence. The government should
foster an environment that encourages entrepreneurship, innovation, and
diversification. Support for small and medium-sized enterprises, investment in
emerging sectors like eco-tourism and renewable energy, and collaboration with
educational institutions can catalyze a new era of economic vibrancy.
2. Environmental Restoration and Sustainability: The ecological
degradation that Pljevlja faces cannot be ignored any longer. The government's
commitment to stringent environmental regulations, investment in green
technologies, and remediation efforts are paramount. Local authorities should
champion projects that restore natural resources, promote responsible resource
use, and create a healthier environment for our residents.
3. Educational Empowerment and Human Capital Development: Education
is the cornerstone of progress. Both the Government/s and local authorities
should prioritize the enhancement of educational institutions, skills training, and
knowledge dissemination. Equipping youth with the skills to navigate modern
challenges is not just an investment in individuals, but a catalyst for community-
wide development.
4. Collaboration and Regional Synergy: Pljevlja does not exist in isolation.
Collaboration with neighboring municipalities and regions to develop integrated
strategies for growth is needed. Joint initiatives can harness shared resources,
boost economic activity, and create a stronger collective impact.
5. Long-Term Vision and Inclusive Decision-Making: Government policies
and local decisions must be grounded in long-term planning, encompassing the
well-being of both present and future generations. Inclusivity in decision-making,
involving residents, businesses, and civil society, will strengthen ownership and
ensure that policies are reflective of our community's needs.
Transformative actions will shape Pljevlja to be the place where economic
vitality, environmental stewardship, and social progress converge for the
betterment of all in Montenegro and the neighboring region.
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