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Persistent Agricultural Shocks and Child Poverty

Taylor & Francis
The Journal of Development Studies
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Children in developing countries are vulnerable to shocks and adversities and child labor is often seen as a direct consequence of poverty and economic downturns. While such univocal causality may appear obvious, its empirical basis has not been systematically evaluated. To understand the linkages between shocks, changes in the economic situation of families and child labor, we therefore conduct a systematic literature review on the impact of income-related shocks on child labor. We evaluate empirical studies of weather events and natural disasters, agricultural shocks such as crop failures, family shocks like parental illness, price shocks and transnational shocks through trade, migration, and remittances. Focusing on the literature that identifies causal effects, we find that the relationship between shocks and child labor is far from univocal. While in most cases adverse shocks increase child labor, we find that favorable shocks that improve earning opportunities may also cause more child labor. Policies to tackle child labor should therefore develop safety nets that minimize the probability of children being used as buffers in adverse economic downturns, but also consider the risk that positive economic shocks may attract children into labor due to changes to the value of children's time spent working.
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Objective To investigate the relation of child dietary diversity and household food insecurity along with other socio-demographic with child anthropometric indices in north-central Ethiopia, an area with a high level of food insecurity and inadequate diet quality. Design A community-based cross-sectional study was used. Settings The study was conducted in Dessie and Combolcha towns of north-central Ethiopia from April to May 2018. Participants Randomly selected 512 mother-child pairs with child’s age range of 6–59 months. Results The mean (± SD) scores of weight-for-height/length, height/length-for-age, weight-for-age, and BMI-for-age Z-scores were 1.35 (± 2.03), − 1.89 (± 1.79), 0.05 (± 1.54), and 1.39 (± 2.06), respectively. From all anthropometric indicators, stunting and overweight/obesity remained the severe public issues hitting 43% and 42% of the children, respectively. In the model, mothers’ age and education and child’s age, sex, and dietary diversity were significantly related with child height-for-age Z-score while place of residence, sex of household head, child’s age, and dietary diversity score were the predictors of child BMI-for-age Z-score in the urban contexts of the study area. Nevertheless, food insecurity was not related to any of the child anthropometric indices. Conclusion The double burden of malnutrition epidemics (stunting and obesity) coexisted as severe public health concerns in urban settings. Anthropometric statuses of children were affected by multidimensional factors and seek strong integration and immediate intervention of multiple sectors.
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Background: Ethiopia is one of the developing countries where child under-nutrition is prevalent. Prior studies employed three anthropometric indicators for identifying factors of children’s under-nutrition. This study aimed at identifying the factors of child under-nutrition using a single composite index of anthropometric indicators. Methods: Data from Ethiopia’s Demographic and Health Survey 2016 was the base for studying under-nutrition in a sample of 9494 children below 59 months. A single composite index of under-nutrition was created from three anthropometric indices through principal component analysis recoded into an ordinal outcome. In line with World Health Organization 2006 Child Growth Standards, the three anthropometric indices involve z-score of height-forage (stunting), weight-for-height (wasting) and weight-for-age (underweight). Partial proportional odds model was fitted and its relative performance compared with some other ordinal regression models to identify significant determinants of under-nutrition. Results: The single composite index of anthropometric indicators showed that 49.0% (19.8% moderately and 29.2% severely) of sampled children were undernourished. In the Brant-test of proportional odds model, the null hypothesis that the model parameters equal across categories was rejected. Compared to ordinal regression models, partial proportional odds model showed an improved fit. A child with mother’s body mass index less than 18.5 kg, from poorest family and a husband without education, and male to be in a severe under-nutrition status was 1.4, 1.8 1.2 and 1.2 times more likely to be in worse under-nutrition status compared to its reference group respectively. Conclusion: Authors conclude that the fitted partial proportional odds model indicated that age and sex of the child, maternal education, region, source of drinking water, number of under five children, mother’s body mass index and wealth index, anemic status of child, multiple births, fever of child before 2 months of the survey, mother’s age at first birth, and husband’s education were significantly associated with child under-nutrition. Thus, it is argued that interventions focus on improving household wealth index, food security, educating mothers and their spouses, improving maternal nutritional status, and increasing mothers’ health care access.
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We present new evidence that households are unable to protect themselves from rainfall failure that occurs on average every five years in rural Ethiopia. However, other less extreme rainfall variation and idiosyncratic shocks such as illness and crop pests do not impact significantly on consumption. Agricultural shocks impact negatively on farm income as expected, however they also stimulate non-agricultural earnings by an equivalent amount. In the case of a covariate shock such as severe rainfall failure, this smoothing mechanism may be ineffective and rainfall insurance or drought-triggered safety nets could provide further protection.
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Summary Young Lives is an international longitudinal study investigating the changing nature of childhood poverty in four low-income countries [Ethiopia, India (Andhra Pradesh), Peru and Vietnam] over a 15-year period. In each country, the cohort is comprised of ∼2000 children aged between 6 and 18 months and up to 1000 children aged between 7 and 8 years, recruited in 2002 and sampled from 20 sentinel sites. The first survey data collection from primary caregivers and older children took place in 2002, the second in 2006-07 and the third in 2009-10. Data on the community contexts were collected to complement the household surveys. To elaborate and extend the quantitative data, longitudinal qualitative research with a subgroup of the children was carried out in 2007, 2008 and 2010-11. Topic areas covered included nutrition, health and well-being, cognitive and physical development, health behaviours and education, as well as the social, demographic and economic status of the household. Survey data from the study are archived in the International Section of the UK Public Data Archive.
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The author studies the effect of an agricultural shock and a labor sharing arrangement (informal social network) on child labor. Albeit bad parental preference to child labor (as the strand of literature claims), poor households face compelling situations to send their child to work. This is, especially, true when they are hit by an income shock and face a binding adult labor constraint. The author used panel data from the ERHS and employed a fixed effects model to pin down causal relation between shocks, membership in a labor sharing arrangement and child labor. It was found that child labor is, indeed, a buffer stock. Though a labor sharing arrangement doesn’t affect child labor at normal times, it helps households to lessen the pressure to rely on it when hit by idiosyncratic shocks. While almost the whole effect of these shocks is offset by participation in a labor sharing arrangement, the covariate shock is not. Even if this may well affect a child’s academic performance, school attendance doesn’t decrease. This differential effect of shocks on child labor in participant households might be because of the extra adult labor made available or due to mutual support that comes with these social networks. This paper is indicative of the importance of considering social networks in smoothing out consumption. Further, it highlights the difficulty to cope up with covariate shocks and hence, calls for development interventions that are particularly meant to address their impact.
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Season of birth is associated with later outcomes; what drives this association remains unclear. We consider a new explanation: variation in maternal characteristics. We document large changes in maternal characteristics for births throughout the year; winter births are disproportionally realized by teenagers and the unmarried. Family background controls explain nearly half of season-of-birth's relation to adult outcomes. Seasonality in maternal characteristics is driven by women trying to conceive; we find no seasonality among unwanted births. Prior seasonality-in-fertility research focuses on conditions at conception; here expected conditions at birth drive variation in maternal characteristics while conditions at conception are unimportant.
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Indian girls have significantly lower school enrollment rates than boys. Anecdotal evidence suggests that gender-differential treatment is the main explanation, but empirical support is often weak. I analyze school enrollment using rainfall shocks, a plausibly exogenous source of income variation. Rainfall shocks matter most for young children and monotonically decline with age. Girls' school enrollment is more vulnerable to rainfall shocks than that of boys for 6-10 year olds, but there are no gender differences for older children. I argue that these results need to be interpreted carefully since they are a combination of two underlying effects, but propose that one explanation are age-specific forms of gender discrimination.
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  Neoclassical growth models and endogenous growth theories show the positive contribution of human capital to growth. Using household panel data (1994–2000) on individuals who reported their wages in urban Ethiopia, we estimated a relationship between health measures (i.e. proxied by height and BMI) and wages (which proxies productivity/growth). Our findings from the IV quantile regression estimates indicate that productivity is positively and significantly affected by education, height and BMI. The return to BMI is important both at the lower and upper end of the wage distribution. The return to height is significant only at the end of the wage distribution. The substantive content of the results (i.e. the high-nutrition and high-productivity equilibrium story) does not change even if we did not control for endogeneity of schooling. Non-parametric evidence also supports the strong and positive relationship between productivity and our indicators of human capital.
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Some studies on child labor have shown that, at the level of the household, greater land wealth leads to higher child labor, thereby casting doubt on the hypothesis that child labor is caused by poverty. This paper argues that the missing ingredient may be an explicit modeling of the labor market. We develop a simple model which suggests the possibility of an inverted-U relationship between land holdings and child labor. Using a unique data set that has child labor hours it is found that, controlling for child, household and village characteristics, the turning point beyond which more land leads to a decline in child labor occurs around 4 ac of land per household.
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Estimation of the dynamic error components model is considered using two alternative linear estimators that are designed to improve the properties of the standard first-differenced GMM estimator. Both estimators require restrictions on the initial conditions process. Asymptotic efficiency comparisons and Monte Carlo simulations for the simple AR(1) model demonstrate the dramatic improvement in performance of the proposed estimators compared to the usual first-differenced GMM estimator, and compared to non-linear GMM. The importance of these results is illustrated in an application to the estimation of a labour demand model using company panel data.
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This paper examines the relationship between household income shocks and child labor. In particular, we investigate the extent to which transitory income shocks lead to increases in child labor and whether household asset holdings mitigate the effects of these shocks. Using data from a household panel survey in Tanzania, we find that both relationships are significant. We investigate mechanisms that could account for these results, including buffer stocks and borrowing. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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We test how well consumption is insured against income risk in a panel of sampled households in rural China. The risk insurance models are estimated by Generalized Method of Moments treating income and household size as endogenous. Partial insurance is indicated for all wealth groups, although the hypothesis of perfect insurance is universally rejected. The rejection of full insurance is strongest for the poorest wealth decile, with 40% of an income shock being passed onto current consumption. By contrast, consumption by the richest third of households is protected from almost 90% of an income shock. The extent of insurance in a given wealth stratum varies little between poor and non-poor areas.
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Incl. bibl., index, glossary.
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This paper develops a model of the transmission of earnings, assets, and consumption from parents to descendants. The model assumes utility-maximizing parents who are concerned about the welfare of their children. The degree of intergenerational mobility is determined by the interaction of this utility-maximizing behavior with investment and consumption opportunities in different gene rations and with different kinds of luck. The authors examine a number of empirical studies for different countries. Regression to the mean in earnings in rich countries appears to be rapid. Almost all the earnings advantages or disadvantages of ancestors are wiped out in three generations. Copyright 1986 by University of Chicago Press.
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This paper examines the similarity in wealth between parents and their children, and explores alternative explanations for this relationship. We find that the age-adjusted elasticity of child wealth with respect to parental wealth is 0.37, before the transfer of bequests. Lifetime income and ownership of particular assets, both of which exhibit strong intergeneration similarity, jointly explain nearly two-thirds of the wealth elasticity. Education, past parental transfers, and expected future bequests account for little of the remaining elasticity. Using new experimental evidence, we assess the importance of risk tolerance. The risk tolerance measures vary as theory would predict with the ownership of risky assets, and are highly correlated between parents and children. However, they explain little of the intergenerational correlation in the propensity to own different assets, suggesting that children's savings propensities are determined by mimicking their parents' behavior, or the inheritance of preferences not related to risk tolerance. Additionally, these risk tolerance measures explain only a small part of the remaining intergenerational wealth elasticity.
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The permanent income hypothesis implies that people save because they rationally expect their permanent income to decline; they save "for a rainy day." It follows that saving should be at l east as good a predictor of declines in labor income as any other for ecast that can be constructed from publicly available information. Th e paper tests this hitherto ignored implication of the permanent inco me hypothesis, using quarterly aggregate data for the period 1953-84 in the United States. By contrast with much of the recent literature, the results here are valid when income is stationary in first differ ences rather than levels. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.
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This paper develops consistent model and moment selection criteria for GMM estimation. The criteria select the correct model specification and all correct moment conditions asymptotically. The selection criteria resemble the widely used likelihood-based selection criteria BIC, HQIC, and AIC. (The latter is not consistent.) The GMM selection criteria are based on the J statistic for testing over-identifying restrictions. Bonus terms reward the use of fewer parameters for a given number of moment conditions and the use of more moment conditions for a given number of parameters. The paper also considers a consistent downward testing procedure. The paper applies the model and moment selection criteria to dynamic panel data models with unobserved individual effects. The paper shows how to apply the selection criteria to select the lag length for lagged dependent variables, to detect the number and locations of structural breaks, to determine the exogeneity of regressors, and/or to determine the existence of correlation between some regressors and the individual effect. To illustrate the finite sample performance of the selection criteria and the testing procedures and their impact on parameter estimation, the paper reports the results of a Monte Carlo experiment on a dynamic panel data model.
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This paper examines the long-term effects of low birthweight (LBW) on educational attainments, labor market outcomes, and health status using data from the National Child Development Study. The study has followed the cohort of children born in Great Britain during one week in 1958 through age 33. We pay particular attentionto possible interactions between LBS and socio-economic status (SES), asking to what extent the deleterious effects of LBW are mitigated by higher SES. We find that LBW has significant long-term effects on self-reported health status, educational attainments, and labor market outcomes. However, there is little evidence of variation in the effects of LBW by SES. An important exception is that high SES women of LBW are less likely to report that they are in poor or fair health than other LBW women.
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This article is motivated by the remarkable observation that children of land-rich households are often more likely to be in work than the children of land-poor households. The vast majority of working children in developing economies are in agricultural work, predominantly on farms operated by their families. Land is the most important store of wealth in agrarian societies, and it is typically distributed very unequally. These facts challenge the common presumption that child labor emerges from the poorest households. This article suggests that this apparent paradox can be explained by failures of the markets for labor and land. Credit market failure will tend to weaken the force of this paradox. These effects are modeled and estimates obtained using survey data from rural Pakistan and Ghana. The main result is that the wealth paradox persists for girls in both countries, whereas for boys it disappears after conditioning on other covariates.
A guide to young lives rounds 1 to 5 constructed files
  • K Briones
  • Briones K.
Factors shaping trajectories to child and early marriage: Evidence from young lives in India
  • R Singh
  • U Vennam
Building resilience to climate shocks in Ethiopia
  • J Koo
  • J Thurlow
  • H Eldidi
  • C Ringler
  • A De Pinto
  • Koo J.
Young lives survey design and sampling (round 5)
  • Lives Young
  • Young Lives
Life satisfaction and schooling
  • E S Huebner
  • K L J Hills
  • J S Dall
  • R Gilman
  • Huebner E. S.
Economic development
  • M P Todaro
  • S C Smith
  • Todaro M. P.