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Party primaries and turnout: Meso-level explanations
Abstract
The impact of party primaries on turnout at the meso level has been particularly under-researched. Thus, the aim of this paper is to explore the determinants of turnout on party primaries by employing an original dataset comprising over 300 selection processes of candidates and leaders in Spain from 1991 to 2021 at both the national and regional level. One of our main findings suggests, in line with what has been affirmed by previous literature, a positive impact of competitiveness on turnout. We also find some contradictory effects of ideology on turnout: as expected most left-wing parties have better turnout averages than right-wing parties, but turnout is higher in primaries organised by right-wing parties. In addition, the type of primaries and the (online-offline) format of the event also appear to be a relevant factor shaping participation.
... Spain was in many ways an outlier till the end of the 20 0 0s, but has become a typical case study since then. The relevance of the Spanish case study is that the celebration of party primaries has been substantially growing in the last decades due to its regular implementation by new state wide parties such as UPyD, Ciudadanos and Podemos, in different governance levels (but mostly at the regional level), and for both candidate and party leadership selection [7] . As previously mentioned, Spain lacks official (State) records of data on primaries conducted by political parties. ...
The paper presents exhaustive information on a dataset of primary processes held by Spanish political parties with representation at both the national and regional level. Using evidences collected from various sources, the dataset covers more than 360 processes carried out by more than 30 Spanish political parties between 1991 and 2023, at both the national and regional level and for both candidate and leadership selection processes. The dataset provides information on the results of the ballots (Turnout, Share of the winner), some basic party features (Ideology, etc.) and the specific features of each process (Competitiveness, Voting procedures, etc.). Hence, it offers the possibility to analyze how different variables providing information on each political party and each internal process are related to the results of each ballot.
Objetivo/contexto: este artículo presenta un análisis comparado del sistema de primarias presidenciales abiertas y simultáneas (PAS) en los países de América Latina que han adoptado una legislación en la materia. En lo que aparenta ser una tendencia creciente, nueve países —con diferencias entre ellos— han establecido normativamente un régimen de PAS reguladas por el organismo electoral y con financiamiento público.
Metodología: se desarrolla, en primer término, una descripción que caracteriza y clasifica los distintos sistemas de PAS considerando sus principales diferencias normativas. Luego, se aventuran hipótesis sobre sus posibles efectos a partir de la literatura sobre primarias presidenciales y sistemas electorales. Finalmente, teniendo en cuenta los resultados de las primarias
realizadas y las subsiguientes elecciones presidenciales, se intenta mostrar en qué medida el sistema de PAS incentiva la participación ciudadana y la competencia por la nominación, si favorece o perjudica a los partidos que las llevan adelante, y
su capacidad para estabilizar el sistema de partidos. Conclusiones: se identifican factores que estimulan la participación, como el voto obligatorio y la simultaneidad con otras elecciones, y que incentivan la competencia, como la fórmula presidencial abierta. No se encuentran factores institucionales que beneficien o perjudiquen directamente a los grupos que dirimen la candidatura en una primaria, aunque las primarias conflictivas parecen perjudicarlos. La capacidad del sistema de PAS de estabilizar los sistemas de partidos parece depender de su interacción con otros factores institucionales y políticos.
Originalidad: se trata del primer trabajo que incursiona en el análisis comparado del sistema de PAS con cobertura regional.
En este artículo abordamos las posibles explicaciones a los cambios en los modelos de procesos de selección de líder de los partidos políticos españoles, que se concentran en un breve periodo de cuatro años, entre los veranos de 2014 y de 2018. Desde un enfoque histórico-empírico, analizamos el comportamiento de los cuatro principales partidos del sistema para ese periodo, considerando que estos incorporan innovaciones organizativas para mejorar su rendimiento electoral. La crisis competitiva se propone como causa de la introducción de las primarias en los cuatro casos, aunque menos grave en el de Ciudadanos. Esta se identifica observando los altos niveles de superposición ideológica de las dos parejas de partidos (PSOE-Podemos y PP-Ciudadanos) y el posible impacto de otros tres factores. La información recabada sobre los cuatro partidos se complementa con entrevistas a dirigentes destacados de los partidos durante el periodo de estudio. Finalmente, se considera plausible el efecto contagio en los casos de Ciudadanos y PP, una vez que los otros dos grandes partidos ya han celebrado primarias.
En este artículo investigamos el caso del Partido Demócrata en Italia (Partito Democratico - PD). Observamos cómo los miembros y simpatizantes se integran dentro del partido y su papel respectivo en la selección del líder. El PD aplica un procedimiento de dos pasos para seleccionar a los líderes. Primero, los afiliados seleccionan a los candidatos que se postulan para el liderazgo del partido, de modo que solo tres candidatos tienen derecho a pasar a la siguiente etapa. En segundo lugar, el líder se selecciona mediante primarias abiertas en las que se admite el voto de todos los electores. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar si estos procedimientos altamente inclusivos que permiten a afiliados y simpatizantes tener voz y voto en la selección de líderes pueden generar alguna tensión entre los dos electorados. Para ello, nos centramos en el nivel de competitividad de las primarias que involucran, sucesivamente, a afiliados y simpatizantes. Nos basamos en cuatro conjuntos de datos diferentes que incluyen datos agregados a nivel regional sobre los procesos de selección del líder nacional del partido organizados en 2009, 2013, 2017 y 2019. Los resultados muestran que los dos procesos solo han convergido parcialmente. De hecho, tanto las primarias cerradas como las abiertas se caracterizan por una tendencia a la baja; en cambio, el voto de los afiliados a menudo permite primarias cerradas competitivas, mientras que las primarias abiertas tienen más probabilidades de generar resultados plebiscitarios. Esto puede producir importantes consecuencias sobre el papel diferente de los miembros y simpatizantes dentro del partido.
Empirical evidence suggests that e-voting has no measurable effects on turnout. However, existing studies did (or could) not look at e-voting effects on the individual level. We innovate by analyzing whether and to what extent the availability of e-voting fosters turnout among specific groups of citizens, and how this influences the equality of participation. To that end, we estimate Bayesian multi-level models on a unique set of official data on citizens’ participation covering 30 ballots between 2008 and 2016 in Geneva, Switzerland, which has the most far-reaching experience with e-voting worldwide. Despite the fact that e-voting was added to an easy-to-use form of postal voting, we find that offering e-voting has increased turnout among abstainers and occasional voters. By contrast, the effects of e-voting availability on the equality of participation are mixed with respect to the age cohorts and gender.
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the participation of the membership in new digital parties, i.e., Five Stars Movement and Podemos. Following the pioneering example of the Pirates parties, those two parties rely on digital platform to make crucial decisions. While the literature has extensively dealt with several aspects of party organizations, little has been said on membership participation. The aim of this paper is to inquire whether new (digital) participatory tools are able to boost political participation. Firstly, I evaluate the types of membership that these parties allow. Secondly, I analyze when, under which rules and in which fields direct democracy tolls have been used. Thirdly, I evaluate the overall participation of the membership to internal consultations. The (partial) conclusion that I reach is that, albeit presenting different characteristics, the platform implemented by the parties have tried to expand direct democracy in the internal decision-making. However, the low participation rates indicate that direct democracy risks to be an empty vessel if not coupled with a constant political mobilization.
The article examines the impact of two online participation platforms on the internal party democracy (IPD) of the Five Star Movement (5SM) in Italy and Podemos in Spain. The article considers whether the frequent use of the platforms for internal consultations automatically translates into a higher quality of IPD. The conclusion is that the impact of the participation platforms on the quality of IPD is modest insofar as the leadership of both parties controls the subject, framing, and timing of the consultations to strengthen its own position. From this angle, statutory regulations, technological affordances, and high-frequency consultations function as a series of interlocking constraints on the capacity of ordinary members to participate on a regular basis, to influence the party agenda, and to make decisions based on alternative viewpoints.
Research on negative campaigning has grown rapidly in the past decades. This article reviews the literature dealing with this campaign strategy. It discusses its definition and measurement and stresses the mismatch between the academic literature and general perceptions. It then reviews why parties and candidates choose to ‘go negative’ with a particular focus on the rationales for negative campaigning under multi-party competition. The manuscript further discusses the literature on electoral effects and broader societal consequences of negative campaigning and emphasizes issues related to data collection and research designs. The conclusion summarizes the state of the art and outlines avenues for future research.
In many Western democracies, political parties have started to open to members the selection of their leaders. While most studies focus on the introduction of this new selection method, its subsequent practice is still understudied. The article contributes to our still limited knowledge of this process by looking at two multilevel countries, Germany and Spain, where the mainstream parties have sometimes organized membership ballots, especially at the regional level, for leadership selection. Thanks to two original databases on party conferences and membership ballots, the article analyzes the background of this process and reviews the most common explanations offered by the literature. It shows that they are not held when parties want to regain power, or party chairs seek their nomination, as commonly believed, but when there are intraparty leadership disputes.
Voter turnout has declined in many countries, raising the question of whether electoral institutions increase voter turnout. We exploit an electoral reform in the Austrian state of Burgenland as a natural experiment to identify the causal effect of polling station opening hours on voter turnout. The results show that a 10% increase in opening hours increased voter turnout by some 0.5 to 0.9 percentage points. The reform also influenced party vote shares. The vote share of the conservative party decreased in the course of the reform, while the vote shares of the other three main parties increased. Conservative voters tend to have an especially strict sense of civic duty and would have participated in the election in any event. Simulations indicate that parliamentary majorities in previous elections would have changed under extended opening hours in favor of the social democratic party. The opening hours of polling stations probably play a more important role in political strategies than recognized to date.
In recent decades, parties in many parliamentary democracies have radically reshaped what it means to be a party member, making it easier and cheaper to join, and giving members greater direct say over party decisions. This article explores some implications of such changes, asking whether membership costs and benefits influence which supporters take the step of joining their party. In particular, it considers the impact of net membership benefits on membership demographics and on members’ ideology. The investigation examines patterns of party membership in 10 parliamentary democracies, using opinion data from the European Social Survey and data on party rules from the Political Party Database project. Our analysis shows that party supporters are more sensitive to political benefits than to financial costs, especially in terms of the ideological incongruence of who joins. As a result, parties offering higher benefits to their members have lower ideological and demographic disparities between members and other party supporters. This is a positive finding for party-based representation, in that it suggests that trends toward more inclusive decision-making processes have the potential to produce parties with memberships that are more substantively and more descriptively representative of their supporters.
As political parties expand opportunities for intraparty participation, understanding the effects of participatory events on party actors becomes ever more important. In this study, we investigate the consequences of an intraparty referendum in a state branch of Germany?s Christian Democratic Union on beliefs and attitudes of party members. We use longitudinal survey data bracketing a nonbinding issue referendum on the party?s stance on same-sex marriage. Our analysis shows that the referendum had secondary effects that went beyond the referendum?s primary goal of delivering an informal opinion poll to the party leadership. The experience of having a say in an important policy decision fostered members? sense of party-specific efficacy. Furthermore, the referendum provided party members with information on elite positions and stimulated leadership evaluation based on issue congruency. Altogether, involvement in intraparty decision-making promotes beliefs and behaviors among the rank and file that are r
Analyzing the British Election Study from 1964 to 2010, we examine the influence of electoral context on turnout, focusing on the closeness of elections in terms of lagged seat and constituency-level winning margins. Using cross-classified multilevel models to account for individual and contextual factors and disentangle life cycle, cohort- and election-specific effects, we find that closeness strongly affects voting behavior, particularly among new electors. Widening seat margins in British elections over the last decades have had a persistent impact on turnout. Respondents who faced less competitive environments when young are more likely to abstain in subsequent elections than those reaching voting age after close-fought races. We conclude that variations in competitiveness have had both short- and long-term effects on turnout.
The organization of primaries in which all party members can participate is increasingly used by political parties to select their leader. We focus here on one of the consequences of these procedures – participation rates. Based on general participation theories (mobilization theory, instrumental motivation theory and learning theory) in combination with insights into the introduction and functioning of leadership primaries, we expect that the first time a party organizes leadership primaries, participation rates will be high, but that they will decline gradually afterwards. We have focused on direct member votes for the selection of party leaders in Belgium, Israel and Canada. Our results show that participation rates are not influenced by how many times such a contest is held in a party (only first-time participation tends to be higher), but mainly by how competitive the contest is.
A basic problem for a rational choice theory of rebellious collective action is to explain why average citizens would participate in such behavior, since they have nothing to gain (they will receive benefits of successful rebellion, in terms of public goods, regardless of whether they take part or not), but much to lose (rebellious behavior may be quite costly). According to the conventional private interest or "by-product" theory, the incentive to participate must come from the expectation of receiving selective benefits; but since average citizens in a general case cannot expect substantial private material rewards, the relevant selective benefits must be psychological in nature. In contrast to the model of private interest theory, a public goods model is proposed, stipulating that the value of rebellion in terms of public goods can be a relevant incentive for participation. Using data from surveys conducted in New York City and Hamburg, West Germany, we investigate the relationship between participation in rebellious political behavior and measures of the incentives of public goods and private interest. The results do not support predictions of the private interest model in regard to nonmaterial selective incentives. Hypotheses of the public goods model are supported.
List of tables List of figures Preface Introduction: 1. The decline and fall of political activism? 2. Theories of political activism Part I. The Puzzle of Electoral Turnout: 3. Mapping turnout 4. Do institutions matter? 5. Who votes? Part II. Political Parties: 6. Mapping party activism 7. Who joins? Part III. Social Capital and Civic Society: 8. Social capital and civic society 9. Traditional mobilising agencies: unions and churches 10. New social movements, protest politics and the internet 11. Conclusions: the reinvention of political activism? Appendix: comparative framework Notes Select bibliography Index.
This article focuses on the participation of party members in intra-party elections and on explanations for this behaviour. The number of intra-party elections is increasing, but their study remains an under-researched phenomenon in contemporary party politics. I test whether participation theories applicable to participation in society also obtain in intra-party elections. The theories tested are: instrumental motivation theory, mobilization theory, resource theory and participation as habit. My analysis on the individual level focuses on two particular internal elections in Belgian parties (VLD and VU) that differ in type and in the membership and ideology of the parties organizing these elections. The results largely confirm the instrumental motivation theory and participation as habit. Neither the mobilization theory nor the resource theory are supported.
Partisanship is the dominant force that dictates American electoral behavior. Yet Americans often participate in elections in which either the partisanship of candidates is unknown or candidates from the same party compete, rendering the partisan cue meaningless. In this research, we examine how candidate demographics—specifically gender—relate to voter behavior and candidate selection in these contexts. Leveraging survey data from same-party matchups in congressional elections (resulting from “top-two primaries”), we examine the relationship between candidate gender and undervoting and vote choice. We find that in same-party matchups, women candidates are associated with lower levels of undervoting among women voters. Furthermore, we find that in mixed-gender contests, women voters from both parties and Democratic men are more likely to favor female candidates. The findings presented here have important implications for the literatures on gender and politics, electoral politics, partisanship, and the design of electoral institutions.
This book rejects conventional accounts of how American political parties differ from those in other democracies. It focuses on the introduction of the direct primary and argues that primaries resulted from a process of party institutionalization initiated by party elites. It overturns the widely accepted view that, between 1902 and 1915, direct primaries were imposed on the parties by anti-party reformers intent on weakening them. An examination of particular northern states shows that often the direct primary was not controversial, and only occasionally did it involve confrontation between party 'regulars' and their opponents. Rather, the impetus for direct nominations came from attempts within the parties to subject informal procedures to formal rules. However, it proved impossible to reform the older caucus-convention system effectively, and party elites then turned to the direct primary - a device that already had become more common in rural counties in the late nineteenth century.
Political parties around the world are democratizing the ways in which they select legislative candidates and party leaders. The move towards more inclusive methods, often labelled as “primaries”, is at least partly a response to declining party membership and growing public disaffection towards party politics. While this democratization of intra-party affairs has the potential to enhance democratic values such as participation, competitiveness and transparency, it also creates several challenges. This chapter begins by defining the term primary election (including the various types of primaries) and documenting the rapid expansion of inclusive selection methods worldwide. We then turn to a discussion of the various challenges associated with these methods. This includes concerns about oversight and accountability, the possibility of low-quality participation, fears of the divisiveness of primary elections, and questions surrounding the representational outcomes that primaries produce.
Drawing upon the ‘satisfaction with democracy’ and ‘divisive primary’ literatures, this article examines how losers of intra-party elections respond to defeat and the consequences that these choices have on party organization and strength. In other words, do losers of intra-party elections continue to support the party or do they, like losers of general elections, feel less satisfied with democracy and withdraw their support (or even ‘exit’ the party)? Exploring rates of membership activism and satisfaction from a recent study of Canadian party members, this article demonstrates that losers of intra-party elections are more likely to exit the party, significantly less likely to remain active and engaged in party politics, and significantly more likely to report dissatisfaction with party membership. These findings suggest that parties must find a way of keeping losers engaged with the party.
The 2024 presidential primaries are on the horizon and this fourth edition of Elaine Kamarck’s Primary Politics will be there to help make sense of them. Updated to include the 2020 election, it will once again be the guide to understanding the modern nominating system that gave the American electorate a choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden
In Primary Politics, political insider Elaine Kamarck explains how the presidential nomination process became the often baffling system we have today, including the “robot rule.” Her focus is the largely untold story of how presidential candidates since the early 1970s have sought to alter the rules in their favor and how their failures and successes have led to even more change. She describes how candidates have sought to manipulate the sequencing of primaries to their advantage and how Iowa and New Hampshire came to dominate the system. She analyzes the rules that are used to translate votes into delegates, paying special attention to the Democrats’ twenty-year fight over proportional representation and some of its arcana.
Drawing on meticulous research, interviews with key figures in both parties, and years of experience, this book explores one of the most important questions in American politics—how we narrow the list of presidential candidates every four years.
What affects the prospects of candidates in open intra-party elections? This research article examines the determinants of candidate performance in the first open party primaries conducted by LIVRE, a newly emerged Portuguese party, in 2015. This innovative process of candidate selection allowed individuals from outside the party not only to vote but also to run for office. Through the construction of an original dataset and the use of social network analysis, this study shows that centrality in the network of endorsements has a significant impact on the probability to be selected in party lists. Our findings shed additional light on the determinants of success in candidate selection and open new insights into the dynamics behind party primaries.
We explore the implications of sequential presidential primary elections for turnout in selecting the presidential party nominees. Drawing from a micro-level theory of participation in sequential elections, we develop a set of aggregate-level hypotheses that tease out different ways that candidate mobilization efforts as well as the legal and institutional structures within a sequential contest influence turnout in presidential nomination contests. Using data from all state primary elections from 1972–2016, we find that electorates facing winnowed candidate pools, and those with contests after the effective endings to presidential contests have substantially reduced turnout that effectively disenfranchises voters in many states. Sequenced primary elections lead to lower overall turnout and less meaningful participation for many voters during presidential nominations contests.
For more than 40 years, studies trying to explain macro-level electoral turnout have been one of the pillars of political behavioural research. From January 2004 to December 2013 alone, more than 130 articles were published in peer-reviewed journals using turnout at the national, regional or local level as the dependent variable. This meta-analysis tries to synthesize the results of these studies. I find there is a strong consensus in the literature that turnout is higher under compulsory voting, if the election is important, and if it is held in a small country. I also find that the influence of most other predictor variables, including the type of electoral system, the number of parties, development, income inequalities and electoral closeness is inconclusive at best. These results hint at the fact that the determinants of turnout might be more complex than the current theory suggests and is rather more context dependent.
In this article, we analyse the mayoral open primaries held from 2004 to 2015. We empirically assess their functioning and their effectiveness, especially in terms of competitiveness and turnout. We also explore the dynamics of diffusion of this instrument of intra-party democracy over time, across parties and across geographical areas. Moreover, we provide an exploratory account of the electoral consequences of mayoral primaries in terms of three dimensions of analysis: the type of municipality in which primaries are held, the features of the primary election contest, and the characteristics of the subsequent mayoral elections. Our results show that local primaries are characterized by two main features: they are fairly institutionalized, and a contagion effect across parties and geographical areas is emerging. In addition, they are quite competitive and our data show that, contrary to popular belief, external and/or more ideologically extreme candidates are less likely to win.
Can too much participation harm democracy? Democratic theory places great importance upon the conduct of elections, but it is not often recognized that the electoral game takes place in two arenas, not only between parties but also within them. This pioneering book presents a new approach to understanding political parties. It sheds light on the inner dynamics of party politics and offers the first comprehensive analysis of one of the most important processes any party undertakes - its process of candidate selection. Candidate selection methods are the mechanisms by which a party chooses its candidates for the general elections. It may be the function that separates parties from other organizations. For such an important function, this field has certainly faced a dearth of serious investigation. Hazan and Rahat, the leading scholars on this topic, conduct an in-depth analysis of the consequences of different candidate selection methods on democracy. This book is a culmination of almost two decades of research and defines the field of candidate selection. Part I of the book delineates candidate selection methods based on four major dimensions: candidacy, the selectorate, decentralization, and voting versus appointment systems. Part II analyzes the political consequences of using different candidate selection methods according to four important aspects of democracy: participation, representation, competition, and responsiveness. The book ends with a proposed candidate selection method that optimally balances all four of the democratic aspects concurrently, and answers the question "Is the most participatory candidate selection method necessarily the best one for democracy?."
This book explores the ways in which political parties, in contemporary parliamentary democracies, choose their leaders and then subsequently hold them accountable. The authors provide a comprehensive examination of party leadership selection and accountability both through examination of parties and countries in different institutional settings and through a holistic analysis of the role of party leaders and the methods through which they assume, and exit, the office.
This book develops and empirically tests a social theory of political participation. It overturns prior understandings of why some people (such as college-degree holders, churchgoers and citizens in national rather than local elections) vote more often than others. The book shows that the standard demographic variables are not proxies for variation in the individual costs and benefits of participation, but for systematic variation in the patterns of social ties between potential voters. Potential voters who move in larger social circles, particularly those including politicians and other mobilizing actors, have more access to the flurry of electoral activity prodding citizens to vote and increasing political discussion. Treating voting as a socially defined practice instead of as an individual choice over personal payoffs, a social theory of participation is derived from a mathematical model with behavioral foundations that is empirically calibrated and tested using multiple methods and data sources.
The paradox between an individual's decisions to head to the polls and the absence of strictly rational arguments for this action has intrigued - and troubled - many scholars.The present article surveys various theoretical contributions to resolve this paradox of (not) voting. We assess these approaches based on their ability to explain a number of 'stylised facts' with respect to voter turnout. The main conclusion is that straying away from the behavioural assumptions of the Downsian model provides more realistic models and leads to promising predictions as to the individual's decision to head to the polls. Incorpo- rating the role of (social) groups and learning in particular can be regarded as important strides towards understanding the individual's decision to cast a vote.
One of the most relevant aspects of party democratization is the consequence of more inclusive methods of candidate selection, and particularly of primaries, for party competition. Despite its relevance, and contrary to the attention it has received in the US, the electoral consequences of primaries have rarely been analysed in Europe. This article assesses whether the use of one member one vote (OMOV) primaries for candidate selection affects the electoral result of the party and, if it does, in what direction. The article contributes to our still limited knowledge of this aspect of European party politics with an analysis of the use of closed party primaries by the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and their effects on its electoral performance in local elections. With an analysis of the electoral performance of the PSOE in municipalities of 10,000 inhabitants or more for the 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 local elections, the article shows that OMOV primaries have, overall, positive electoral payoffs but also that their effects can vary.
This study examines a long-standing concern in democratic theory: the relationship between polity size and democratic participation. Size is thought to have a direct effect on the individual's proclivity to take part in collective action, as well as indirect effects through increased bureaucratic complexity and group heterogeneity - two factors often related to group size. The study operates at two levels. At the nation-state level, it examines the relationship between size and party membership rates in 27 representative democracies. It then extends the analysis to the party organization level, examining the effect of party size on members' activism in 29 parties across 5 advanced industrial democracies. The results show that increasing size strongly diminishes participation at both levels.
A small, but apparently expanding, area of research in the United States has developed around the issue of whether divisive primary elections harm the general election prospects of the winners of such primaries. The subject matter is important, being of interest to students of intra-party democracy, party organization and voting behaviour. Unfortunately the research reported in major American political science journals has been directed, with one exception, towards a trivial question, at the expense of the more complex and interesting ones. The purpose of this Note is to explain why this question is not even a poor substitute for them, and to suggest the problems towards which research in this area should be directed.
The last two decades saw a significant shift in party leaders' selection methods. As part of a wider phenomenon of intra-party democratization, many parties opened their leadership selection procedure to wider selection bodies (selectorates). Such a step was expected to reduce the parties' elitist and oligarchic tendencies by attracting more leadership aspirants and producing more competitive contests. This study aims to evaluate whether these expectations materialized – do wider selectorates produce more competitive leadership contests? Using the selectorate's level of inclusiveness as the explanatory variable, this paper explores 143 leadership contests to see whether these expectations materialized. Several operative indicators are used to evaluate the level of competitiveness. The main conclusion is that larger selectorates tend to attract more leadership candidates, but also tend to produce less competitive contests.
The 2008 presidential election offers a unique opportunity to revisit the hypothesis that a divisive primary exacts a tolls on the party’s general election performance—neither party had a sitting president or vice president seeking the nomination, the Democratic nomination was contested all the way to the end, and advertising data provide a way to gauge both the intensity and tenor of the campaigns. In this article, we take advantage of these circumstances to distinguish between primaries that were competitive and those that were negative and find, contrary to the assumptions in the divisive primary literature, that a close contest does not imply a divisive one. Moreover, we find that Obama was helped by his tight battle with Clinton for the nomination and that the tone of the primaries bore no relationship to his general election performance.
Previous research has established a link between turnout and the extent to which voters are faced with a “meaningful” partisan choice in elections; this study extends the logic of this argument to perceptions of the “meaningfulness” of electoral conduct. It hypothesizes that perceptions of electoral integrity are positively related to turnout. The empirical analysis to test this hypothesis is based on aggregate-level data from 31 countries, combined with survey results from Module 1 of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems survey project, which includes new and established democracies. Multilevel modeling is employed to control for a variety of individual- and election-level variables that have been found in previous research to influence turnout. The results of the analysis show that perceptions of electoral integrity are indeed positively associated with propensity to vote.