Harnessing the energy transition from total dependence on fossil to renewable energy in the Arabian Gulf region, considering population, climate change impacts, ecological and carbon footprints, and United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals

Abstract

Highlights
• Investigates energy and environmental issues in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the Middle East region, West Asia, as being considered, globally, a very important, strategic, and volatile region. These countries are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
• Discloses that the Middle East region, including the GCC countries, produces more oil than any other world’s region, accounting for just under a third of the global oil production in 2020; at 31.3%, constituting a slightly larger share of global production than it was 10 years ago.
• Investigates the oil consumption in the GCC countries, in comparison with other countries that are much greater in population and/or industrial advancements.
• Contributes to the areas of energy and the environment, with views affecting strategic environmental assessment of the efficiency of energy conversion systems to support energy and environmental policies.
• Contributes to views on, and deeper understanding of, climate change impacts, ecological and carbon footprints, pollution control, energy system efficiencies, and energy management, in terms of optimization, economic control, and pollution control.
• Focuses on the usage of fossil energy sources (oil and natural gas), with deep views on renewable energy sources and sustainable development, taking into account population and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (UN’s SDGs), as well as the ecological and carbon footprints.
• Indicates that the GCC’s high rates of oil consumption have resulted in negative impacts on the environment and the climate, in terms of high ecological and carbon footprints, considering the fact that some of the GCC’s countries have the highest per capita ecological and carbon footprints.
• Suggests, as part of a decarbonization strategy, that the GCC countries need to accelerate their efforts towards achieving the UN’s SDGs and climate change performance.
• Concludes that the GCC countries should reduce their dependence on fossil energy sources and, thus, gradually shift to renewable energy sources, particularly photovoltaic solar energy.

Full text

Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
https://doi.org/10.1186/s42055-023-00057-4
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Sustainable Earth Reviews
Harnessing theenergy transition fromtotal
dependence onfossil torenewable energy
intheArabian Gulf region, considering
population, climate change impacts, ecological
andcarbon footprints, andUnited Nations’
Sustainable Development Goals
Hilmi S. Salem1*, Musa Yahaya Pudza2 and Yohannes Yihdego3
Abstract
The aim of this research is to investigate various issues related to oil consumption and environmental impacts
in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, in relation to population, climate change impacts, United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals (UN’s SDGs), and ecological and carbon footprints. The GCC countries (Bahrain,
Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) are almost entirely dependent on fossil energy
sources (oil and natural gas) domestically, industrially, commercially, economically, and transportation-wise. Although
the total population of the GCC countries is around 60 million, making up only 0.76% of the world’s population (8
billion), they do consume 5.15 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil, forming nearly 5.8% of the world’s daily consump-
tion, which is around 88.4 million bbl/d as of 2021. Moreover, daily per capita consumption of oil in the GCC countries
is about 0.09 barrels, while it is about 0.06 barrels in the USA. These figures indicate that the GCC’s countries com-
bined and per capita, although not industrialized and small in population, consume large quantities of oil, compared
to other countries of the world that are industrialized and/or densely populated, such as the USA, India, Japan, Russia,
and Germany. The high rates of oil consumption in the GCC countries, associated with the highest per capita ecologi-
cal and carbon footprints worldwide, have led to negative impacts on the environment, climate, and public health.
The results of this work show that some of the GCC countries have the highest per capita ecological and carbon
footprints. Thus, the GCC countries should effectively reduce their dependence on fossil energy sources and gradu-
ally replace them with renewable energy sources, especially photovoltaic (PV) solar energy. Furthermore, the statistics
presented in this article and the outcomes reached uncover that the GCC countries lag behind with regard to various
indicators of the UN’s SDGs. This implies the GCC countries are not taking adequate actions to encounter environmen-
tal problems, in order to fulfill some of the UN’s SDGs by 2030.
*Correspondence:
Hilmi S. Salem
hilmisalem@yahoo.com
Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.

Page 2 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
Highlights
• Investigates energy and environmental issues in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the Middle East
region, West Asia, as being considered, globally, a very important, strategic, and volatile region. These countries are
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
• Discloses that the Middle East region, including the GCC countries, produces more oil than any other world’s region,
accounting for just under a third of the global oil production in 2020; at 31.3%, constituting a slightly larger share
of global production than it was 10 years ago.
• Investigates the oil consumption in the GCC countries, in comparison with other countries that are much greater
in population and/or industrial advancements.
• Contributes to the areas of energy and the environment, with views affecting strategic environmental assessment
of the efficiency of energy conversion systems to support energy and environmental policies.
• Contributes to views on, and deeper understanding of, climate change impacts, ecological and carbon footprints,
pollution control, energy system efficiencies, and energy management, in terms of optimization, economic control,
and pollution control.
• Focuses on the usage of fossil energy sources (oil and natural gas), with deep views on renewable energy sources
and sustainable development, taking into account population and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development
Goals (UN’s SDGs), as well as the ecological and carbon footprints.
• Indicates that the GCC’s high rates of oil consumption have resulted in negative impacts on the environment
and the climate, in terms of high ecological and carbon footprints, considering the fact that some of the GCC’s coun-
tries have the highest per capita ecological and carbon footprints.
• Suggests, as part of a decarbonization strategy, that the GCC countries need to accelerate their efforts
towards achieving the UN’s SDGs and climate change performance.
• Concludes that the GCC countries should reduce their dependence on fossil energy sources and, thus, gradually shift
to renewable energy sources, particularly photovoltaic solar energy.
Keywords GCC Countries, Population, Fossil energy production and consumption, Green energy, Ecological
and carbon footprints, Decarbonization and energy strategies, Climate change impacts and the United Nations’
Sustainable Development Goals (UN’s SDGs)
Introduction
Background
e Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – an intergovern-
mental political and economic entity in the form of a fed-
eration in the Arab Gulf region (AG, also known as the
Persian Gulf) – was established in 1981 and includes six
Arab states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and the United Arab Emirates
(UAE). e six countries (Fig.1) have similar characteris-
tics ethnically, socially, economically, historically, cultur-
ally, and religiously.
e high rates of oil consumption in the GCC countries
have led negatively to significant impacts on the environ-
ment and climate, in terms of the Ecological/Environ-
mental Footprint (EFP) which is higher than many other
countries around the world, as some GCC countries have
the highest per capita EFP (EFP/ca).
e continuous increase in population growth leads
to the expansion of the built environment that requires
more energy to generate power through the need for
transportation, due to long commutes through the
increase in the number of vehicles. Traditionally, hydro-
carbon based technologies have been used to meet
energy demand. However, the negative environmental
impacts caused by such an approach have shifted the
industry towards more sustainable technologies [2, 3].
e GCC countries continued to intensify efforts to
reduce their dependence on fossil energy sources (oil and
natural gas), and gradually switch to renewable energy
sources and technologies (REST), especially solar photo-
voltaic (PV), taking into account the fact that the GCC
countries are exposed to sunshine almost all year round.
Focusing investment efforts on renewable energy pro-
jects, such as REST, will eliminate those countries’ total
reliance on fossil energy sources. REST accreditation will
reinforce the GCC countries’ commitment to air pol-
lution mitigation’s mechanisms and policies and, thus,
commitment to climate action. is can be achieved
through the use of solar panels which, in turn, protect
ecosystems and reduce forests’ degradation [4].
e progress of renewable energy and its contri-
butions to achieving the United Nation’s Sustainable
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Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
Development Goals (UN’s SDGs) must be assessed and
monitored by each of the GCC countries. is will lead to
economic and social developments in the region. Moreo-
ver, the modernization of energy services can be success-
fully facilitated by using REST. For example, renewable
solar energy can help heat water and dry crops. More
than that, the transportation sector and other service
processes (such as cooling, heating, cooking, lighting,
and water pumping) can be facilitated through the use
of biofuels, biomass, and biogas modern technologies.
REST developments can provide companies with efficient
means to supply self-generated energy on site, allowing
excess energy to be transported for sale and, thus, provid-
ing an additional source of income for companies. is
helps reduce business dependence on a limited number
of energy suppliers.
Such policies, which involve the implementation of
various mechanisms, must be taken in light of the UN’s
SDGs, in order to successfully combat the effects of cli-
mate change and global warming, and reduce EFPs.
Below are more details.
Study goals andmethodological framework
e current study took a broad view of the energy situa-
tion in the Gulf Cooperation Council’s countries: demo-
graphically, environmentally, economically, and socially.
It highlights the consumption of fossil fuels in the GCC
countries, in relation to population, societies, economies,
climate change impacts, ecological and carbon footprints,
and other issues as well. us, it offers critical analyzes to
policy- and strategy-makers in the region and beyond, as
well as to academics and undergraduate and postgradu-
ate students in various disciplines of knowledge and
study, such as energy, the environment, industry, policy-
making, socioeconomics, conflicts and geopolitics, and
other related fields as well.
To achieve the objectives of this study, a specific and
systematic methodological framework was developed
and implemented, while structured guidelines were fol-
lowed. Accordingly, analyzes were made of the avail-
able data on the energy situation in the GCC countries.
Approaches were also presented on how to develop some
technologies and scenarios to solve energy problems in
the GCC countries. Moreover, recommendations and
proposals are presented to develop a better future and
wellbeing for the people of the GCC countries, as well as
for the region and the world at large.
It is recommended that policy- and decision-makers
in the GCC countries take firm steps and serious actions
towards efficient and governed utilization of energy, in
terms of policy legislation and implementation of mech-
anisms to adapt green, clean energy sources that help
build green economies. is paper is timely, as the United
Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) took place
in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, just a few months ago (6–18
November 2022) [5], and as COP26 took place in Glas-
gow, UK (31 October–13 November 2021) [6, 7], and as
COP26 came out with the conclusion: “e approved
texts are a compromise. ey reflect the interests, the con-
ditions, the contradictions, and the state of political will
in the world today” [8]. Furthermore, the world is prepar-
ing itself for COP28 that will take place in the Gulf region
Fig. 1 A sketch map (with no scale) of the GCC’s six Arab countries in the region of the Arabian Gulf (AG) [1]
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Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
shortly; i.e. in Dubai, UAE, 30 November –12 December
2023.
Research methodology
Study design andsetting
is paper examines various issues related to oil con-
sumption and environmental impacts in the six GCC
countries. e factors and indicators under consideration
are population, the effects of climate change, the UN’s
SDGs, and ecological and carbon footprints.
e total population of the GCC countries is around 60
million [9], making up only 0.76% of the world’s popula-
tion (approximately 8 billion) [10], with daily consump-
tion of 5.15 million barrels of oil; roughly 5.8% of the
world’s daily consumption, which is about 88.4 million
barrels per day (bbl/d) as of 2021. Daily per capita con-
sumption of oil in the GCC countries is about 0.09 bbl,
while it is about 0.06 barrels in the USA [11].
e GCC countries are in the early stages of explor-
ing new technological and energy innovations in order
to promote sustainable regional consumption of oil and
reduce its environmental impacts amongst the GCC
countries. It can be argued that sustainable energy con-
sumption, economic growth, and trade flows around
the world are due to the tremendous results of innova-
tive technological advances in the twentieth and twenty-
first centuries. us, the primary interest in the body
of literature has been to identify the main factors that
influence the pace of technological improvements over
time, and how they promote sustainable green econo-
mies [12]. Also, the challenge of transitioning to a low-
carbon future is amongst the hot topics for discussions
nowadays.
e GCC countries were chosen as sample coun-
tries, because these countries have similar social and
economic conditions and national culture, which will
benefit the countries of the bloc in cooperation towards
sustainable digital and technological innovations. e
GCC region is very open and widely internationally
connected. ese bloc countries have become the hub
of the developing economies of the world [13]. e
selection of the GCC countries for the purpose of the
current study is not only due to a greater understand-
ing of the region itself, but also due to its important
implications for sustainable developments in the GCC
countries themselves, as well as at the regional and
international levels.
e GCC countries are formidably known for their
oil wealth. However, with the uncertainties associ-
ated with global instability and related fluctuations in
global oil prices due to the transition of energy from
fossil energies to green energies, as well as the geopo-
litical instabilities worldwide, the countries of the Gulf
Cooperation Council’s bloc need to make a lot of efforts
towards diversifying the mass of their oil wealth in dif-
ferent economic portfolios, including green energy
sources and technologies. Table1 presents the impact
of the GCC countries on the global energy transition on
economic growth between 2010 and 2020.
Instability in the GCC region’s reliant on unsustain-
able fossil fuels has suffered dramatic declines and
unstable national GDP growth (Table 1). For exam-
ple, in 2020, all GCC’s six countries recorded a nega-
tive GDP (Table1). Table1 shows that in 2020, Bahrain
recoded its GDP at -5.08518, Kuwait at -8.68526, Oman
at -3.20094, Saudi Arabia at -4.10658, Qatar at-3.5576,
and the UAE at -6.1345, compared to, for example, 2010
as Bahrain had a GDP of 4.334299, Kuwait of -2.37026,
Oman of 1.713985, Saudi Arabia of 5.039484, Qatar of
19.59233, and the UAE of 1.60285.
Table 1 Annual GCC’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth (in %) for the years 2010–2020 (Source: Authors’ computation with data
from the World Development Indicators’ Database 2022 [14]
Year Bahrain Kuwait Oman Saudi Arabia Qatar United Arab Emirates
2010 4.334299 -2.37026 1.713985 5.039484 19.59233 1.602850048
2011 1.983515 9.628407 2.89461 9.996847 13.37518 6.928508599
2012 3.728108 6.625818 8.863122 5.411445 4.730012 4.483791985
2013 5.41684 1.1493 5.227704 2.699255 5.556041 5.053077855
2014 4.350391 0.500877 1.292252 3.652482 5.334323 4.41008526
2015 2.485379 0.59302 5.017058 4.106409 4.753346 5.060334864
2016 3.558128 2.925868 5.046424 1.670625 3.064192 2.984216091
2017 4.29095 -4.71211 0.304058 -0.7415 -1.4976 2.373551057
2018 2.136701 1.246129 1.287104 2.434111 1.234872 1.189855642
2019 2.141377 0.427464 -1.12921 0.331436 0.688241 3.411538686
2020 -5.08518 -8.68526 -3.20094 -4.10658 -3.5576 -6.134500803
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Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
Observations anddata analyses
Hydrocarbons reserves intheGCC countries
Crude oil is one of the most valuable commodities in
modern life and the modern world. Hence, it has been
ranked as the most traded commodity in the world,
becoming, for nearly a century, a necessity, based on
the fact that hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas) are
known as the “bloodstream of modern life,” as being
the engine of the world economies, industrialization,
and development. Known as “black gold,” because of
the value it holds, crude oil is processed into gasoline,
diesel, and a host of versatile petrochemicals that reach
deep into the daily lives of people around the world.
Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa
(including the Gulf countries, Iraq, Yemen, Syria,
Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Sudan and Tunisia, as well
as other countries that have negligible amounts of
reserved oil) currently absorb about 744 billion barrels
(Bbbl) (Table2). If Iran is added, as a non-Arab Middle
Eastern country (with oil reserves of 157.8 Bbbl, con-
stituting 9.1% of global reserves, and with a reserve-to-
production ratio (R/P) of 139.8), the oil reserves of the
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region together
are approximately 902 Bbbl, making up about 52% of
the world’s total proven oil reserves, which are 1,732.4
Bbbl (or approximately 1.73 trillion barrels) [15].
In terms of production, the Middle East produces more
oil than any other region worldwide, accounting for just
under a third of global oil production in 2020; that is by
31.3% [17]. Overall, oil production in the Middle East
makes up a slightly larger share of global production than
it did ten years ago, but the contribution to global oil pro-
duction has risen steadily in North America, mainly due
to oil production from oil shale [18], while it is declining
in all other regions of the world.
By the end of 2018, the GCC countries had accumu-
lated proven crude oil reserves of 497 billion barrels,
representing approximately 34% of the world’s proven
crude oil reserves [19]. Table2 shows that the GCC coun-
tries had by the end of 2020 more than 527 Bbbl, which
is equivalent to 30.5% of global reserves. Due to its huge
reserves of hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas), the Gulf
region is very important as it plays remarkable geopoliti-
cal and economic roles on the regional and global scales.
e following is a brief presentation of the hydrocar-
bons (oil and natural gas) situation in each of the GCC
countries.
KSA: It has the largest oil reserves in the Middle East. At
297.5 billion barrels, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia makes
up 17.2% of global reserves in 2020 (Table2). is puts
KSA in second place amongst the countries with the largest
proven global oil reserves – right after Venezuela (Fig.2).
Table 2 Proved oil reserves in the GCC countries and other Middle Eastern countries (separately and jointly), in addition to the share
of the world’s total and the ratio of reserve to production (R/P) [15, 16]
a The Bahrain data is for the year 2016 [16]
Country Oil Reserves at End of 2020 (billion bbl) Share of World’s Total (%) R/P (Ratio)
Bahraina0.125 0.0 5.5
Kuwait 101.5 5.9 103.2
Oman 5.4 0.3 15.4
Qatar 25.2 1.5 38.1
Saudi Arabia 297.5 17.2 73.6
UAE 97.8 5.6 73.1
Total in GCC Countries 527.525 30.5
Iraq 145.0 8.4 96.3
Yemen 3.0 0.2 86.7
Syria 2.5 0.1 158.8
Egypt 3.1 0.2 14.0
Other Middle East Countries 0.2 0.0 2.6
Total in Middle East Region 681.325 39.4
Algeria 12.2 0.7 25.0
Libya 48.4 2.8 339.2
Sudan 1.5 0.1 47.9
Tunisia 0.4 0.0 32.7
Total in other Arab countries 62.5 3.6
Total in all Arab countries 743.825 43
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Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
Venezuela has approximately 303.8 billion barrels,
constituting 17.5% of the global reserves of oil and will
serve the country for the next 500 years [15]. Saudi
Arabia is the largest exporter of oil, according to the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) [21]. As of 2018, Saudi Arabia was the leading
supplier of crude oil worldwide, with an export value
of over USD 183 billion [22], producing 12.3 million
barrels per day (bbl/d) since 2018 [23]. In 2021, ARA-
MCO’s oil production averaged 12.3 million barrels
per day [24]. e breakeven price of Saudi oil per bar-
rel was less than half of its main global competitors;
namely Russia and Venezuela. However, Saudi revenues
from oil production decreased in 2021, reaching USD
161.7 billion [25]. In 2022, Saudi oil revenues reached
USD 326 billion – the highest level since Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman took office in June 2017 [26], as
it produced 10.44 million bbl/d [27]. ough the Saudi
oil production in 2022 was less than that in previous
years, the revenues were much greater because of the
high oil prices.
It is noteworthy to mention that the Russian-Ukrain-
ian war has provided good opportunities for the oil
industry in the Gulf region, and these are not as trivial
as they might seem at first glance. In fact, in 2022 the
demand for Saudi and Emirati oil increased dramati-
cally as they could provide an alternative to Russian
supplies in both Europe and Asia. Accordingly, higher
oil prices greatly benefit the GCC countries, allow-
ing them to refill coffers emptied by the COVID-19
pandemic, although extremely high prices always create
the risk of market overheating and instability [28].
Some of the major oil fields in Saudi Arabia are: 1) e
onshore Ghawar oil field – the largest in the country and
the world, producing mostly from carbonate rock depos-
its since 1951; 2) e offshore Safaniya field producing
since 1957; and 3) e Shaybah field (Shabah) onshore oil
producing since 1998 [29, 30].
Kuwait: Despite being a small country, Kuwait is a
major contributor to the world’s oil reserves. It is the
fourth largest oil reserve in the Middle East after Saudi
Arabia, Iran, and Iraq. Kuwaiti oil reserves reached 101.5
billion barrels in 2020, representing 5.9% of global oil
reserves (Table2). Regarded as the second largest oil field
in the world, the Ratqa field, located in northern Kuwait,
was developed and started production in 2020. e state-
owned Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has launched sev-
eral new projects as it seeks to expand its reach. Its oil
production capacity will increase to 4 million barrels per
day by 2040 – up from 2.43 million bbl/d in 2021 [31].
KOC plans to invest in the Burgan field to boost capac-
ity through improved oil recovery methods, such as
injection of seawater and carbon dioxide (CO2) into
wells [32]. e Burgan field, which has been in operation
since 1938, is located in southern Kuwait and can pro-
duce up to 1.7 million bbl/d. e Wafra oil field, located
within the onshore Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ) in
southern Kuwait, covers an area of approximately 5,000
km2, including discoveries south of Al-Fawaris, south of
Umm-Gudair, Al-Humma and Arq [30, 31].
Fig. 2 Proven oil reserves (in billion barrels – Bbbl) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) (in blue) and in Venezuela (in red) for the period of 1980–
2016 [20]
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Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
UAE: Under the leadership and supervision of the “Abu
Dhabi National Oil Company” (ADNOC), the UAE is
amongst the ten largest oil producers in the world, and
the fifth largest country in terms of oil reserves at 97.8
billion barrels in 2018 [30], and continues at the same rate
in 2020 [15] (Table2). e UAE, as a member of OPEC
and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), oper-
ates several crude oil fields, including Murban, which is
the country’s main export. More than 90% of the UAE’s
reserves are held in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, followed
by the Emirates of Dubai and Sharjah. One of the main
crude oil fields in the country is the Upper Zakum field,
which is located about 84 km northwest of the Abu Dhabi
Islands. is field, which currently produces 640,000 bar-
rels per day, contains an estimated 50 billion barrels of oil
reserves [30], constituting almost half of the oil reserves
in the UAE (Table2).
Oman: It ranks 21st in the world, and accounts for about
0.3% of the world’s total proven oil reserves, holding
approximately 5.4 billion barrels of proven oil reserves
as of 2020 (Table2). Oman has proven reserves equal to
79.4 times its annual consumption, making it 15.4 times
more than production (Table2). is means that with-
out net exports, there would be about 79 years of oil
left at current consumption levels, excluding unproven
reserves [33, 34]. e Jabal field and Mukhaizna field are
amongst the largest oil fields in the Sultanate of Oman,
with the first operating since 1968 and the second being
discovered by the Petroleum Development Oman (PDO)
in 1975, and starting production in the mid-2000s [35].
Each of these Omani oil fields contains 1 billion barrels of
recoverable oil – past and future [36].
Qatar: Despite its small area, Qatar has large reserves
of oil (25.2 billion barrels) (Table2), and natural gas esti-
mated at 24.9 trillion cubic meters (TCM) or 865 trillion
cubic feet (TCF). In 2017, Qatar produced 1.92 million
barrels of oil per day, and 175.7 billion cubic meters (or
6.21 TCF) of natural gas [37]. Most of Qatar’s condensate
liquids and natural gas are produced from the offshore
North Field. Most of Qatar’s oil fields are offshore fields,
with the only exception being the Dukhan field, which
has been in operation since 1988, with 2.2 billion bar-
rels of recoverable oil past and future [36]. In 2016, Qatar
Petroleum (QP) announced that it had awarded a 30%
stake in a new 25-year contract to the French Oil Com-
pany – TOTAL – to operate the 300,000 barrels per day
in Al Shaheen oil field [37]. According to Qatar National
Bank (QNB), available reserves allow Qatar to maintain
its current production for another 138 years [37].
Bahrain: Although Bahrain is one of the smallest oil
exporting countries in the Gulf region, it is the oldest oil
producer in the GCC countries, with the establishment
of the Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO) in 1929,
and with the start of production in the 1930s from the
Awali oil field, with a billion barrels of past and future
recoverable oil [36]. Bahrain’s hydrocarbon wealth is
relatively small, with a production of about 198,000 bar-
rels per day, of which about 150,000 bbl/d comes from
an offshore field that is shared with Saudi Arabia [23].
Onshore oil reserves in Bahrain are estimated at around
125 million barrels (Table2), which, at the current pro-
duction rate, would last less than seven years, making the
new discovery very significant. A new discovery shows
that deposits in Bahrain are estimated to be at least 80
billion barrels of tight oil and 10–20 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas [23, 38, 39].
GCC countries’ demography, land area, andoil production
andconsumption
As mentioned earlier, the total population of the GCC
countries is about 60 million, living on a total area of
about 2.6 million km2, with a population density of
approximately 24 persons/km2 (pe/km2) (Table3), and a
GDP of approximately USD 3.5 trillion [40].
Table 3 The six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, in terms of population, global population share, land area, population
density, daily oil production, and daily oil consumption [9, 41–43]
Country Population (≈ in
million, as of 21
June 2022)
Global
Population Share
out of World’s
Population (8
billion) (%)
Land Area (km2) Population
Density (pe/
km2)
Oil Production in
2019 (≈ million
bbl/d)
Oil Production
in 2017 (bb1/d/
million people)
Oil
Consumption
(bbl/d)
Bahrain 1.78 0.022 765 2,332 0.064 36,000 58,000
Kuwait 4.38 0.055 17,818 246 2.99 721,575 500,000
Oman 5.33 0.067 309,500 17 1.02 217,178 176,000
Qatar 2.98 0.037 11,586 257 1.99 500,000 280,000
Saudi
Arabia 35.85 0.451 2,149,690 17 12.4 324,866 3,237,000
UAE 10.08 0.126 83,600 121 3.77 335,103 901,000
Total ≈ 60.4 ≈ 0.76 2,572,959 ≈ 23.5 ≈ 22.23 2,134,722 5,152,000
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Page 8 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
According to the United Nations Population’s Pros-
pects, the population of the GCC countries is expected
to peak at 68 million in 2048 and then decline there-
after [44]. erefore, the population of the GCC coun-
tries is expected to shrink by 12.6% (i.e. to 52.5 million)
by the end of this century. By 2100, Saudi Arabia and
the UAE will experience the largest population’s con-
traction amongst the GCC countries, with declines of
19.2% and 9%, respectively. Bahrain and Oman will also
see population’s declines of 7.7% and 0.3%, respectively.
Meanwhile, Qatar and Kuwait will see their population
increase by 9.6% and 1%, respectively [44]. e main
reason for the potential shrinking of the overall popu-
lation in the GCC countries over the following dec-
ades can be attributed to the low fertility rates and the
declining expatriate population.
All GCC countries are totally dependent on fossil
energy sources, domestically, industrially, economi-
cally, commercially, and transportation-wise. Total oil
production in the GCC countries, in 2019, was about
22.2 million barrels per day, resulting in approximately
2.13 million barrels per day per a million people of the
total GCC’s population (Table 3). Oil consumption
by the GCC countries combined, with a total popula-
tion of about 60 million (Table3), is around 5.15 mil-
lion barrels per day (Table3), and it constitutes about
5.8% of the daily global production of oil, which was
in 2021 about 88.4 million barrels per day [15]. Com-
pared to other countries of the world (in terms of the
population in 2020 and daily oil consumption for 2021),
India, for example, with a total population of 1.38 bil-
lion, consumed about 4.67 million bbl/d; Japan, with
a population of 126.5 million, consumed 3.27 million
bbl/d; Russia, with a population of about 146 million,
consumed 3.24 million bbl/d; and Germany, with a
population of about 84 million, consumed 2.05 million
bbl/d [9, 15].
Considering the 2020 population [9] and daily oil con-
sumption [15], the figures above indicate that the GCC
countries, which make up only 0.76% (less than 1%) of
the world’s population (Table3), consume ≈5.8% of the
world’s total daily oil consumption.
Oil consumption in the GCC countries is ≈0.09 barrels
per capita per day (bbl/ca/d), while in the United States
(as the first industrialized country in the world) it is 0.06
bbl/ca/d, and in China (the world’s second industrialized
country) ≈0.01 bbl/ca/d. is means that oil consump-
tion, per capita per day, in the United States and China
does not exceed 66.7% and 11.1%, respectively, of the
amount of oil consumed in the GCC countries. ese fig-
ures reflect the high rates of oil consumption in the GCC
countries as a whole and the per capita share by each
country, despite its small population, being non-industrial
and not industrially productive, compared to other large,
industrial, and productive countries, worldwide.
Renewable energy sources andtechnologies (REST)
intheGCC countries
Based on the fact that many global governments view
Renewable Energy Sources and Technologies – REST –
as a way to address the growing and multidimensional
threats of climate change, the countries of the traditional
or conventional (fossil) energy in the Gulf region are
embracing REST faster than before, although their efforts
are still rather slow and modest. However, by leading
efforts in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the GCC states have
shown some progress towards supporting global efforts
regarding the energy transition [45]. Although there have
been some developments in the renewable energy sector
in the GCC countries in the form of current and future
projects, there are no efforts that support strategic policy
development plans [46–48].
IRENA’s Director-General, Francesco La Camera, said
at the International Energy Forum in Riyadh, KSA, “It
is perfectly possible to generate sufficient cheap, reliable
energy from renewable sources. Not only is it possible, but
it is also our best option, as it would bring higher socio-
economic benefits than business as usual, and it would
allow us to effectively address climate change” [45]. How-
ever, it is believed that a gradual shift from total reliance
on fossil energy to REST will be effectively beneficial to
the GCC countries, because:
1) REST is the most practical and available climate solu-
tion: Rapid deployment of REST in the GCC region
could reduce CO2 emissions by 136 million tons [45]
to keep the world well below 2°C of warming ther-
mal.
2) REST is the most competitive form of power genera-
tion: Today, renewable energy is the most cost-com-
petitive source of new energy generation in the GCC,
replacing conventional energy sources as an answer
to increasing domestic energy demand in the region
[45]. e UAE, in particular, has taken effective steps,
implementing a solar energy project to operate in
2022, as the largest of its kind, worldwide [49]. e
project is part of the Dubai Clean Energy Strategy
2050, which aims to provide 75% of the energy needs
in the UAE using clean renewable energy by 2050,
by utilizing photovoltaic panels [49–51]. e project
has already produced power in the range of 13 to 950
megawatt (MW) during its first to fourth phases in
the period of 2013–2020, and is scheduled to gener-
ate 900 MW in 2021 [51]. Recently, the project’s 900-
MW Phase 5 received one of the lowest bids for a
solar PV project in the world at a rate of 1.7 US Cent
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Page 9 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
per kilowatt-hour (kWh) [45]. is project will: i)
eliminate more than 2.4 million metric tons of CO2
emissions annually, which is equivalent to removing
470,000 cars from the roads; ii) provide electricity to
about 160,000 households across the UAE; iii) offer
one of the most cost-competitive solar tariffs of 4.97
UAE’s Fils (or 0.14 US Cents) per kWh (where Arab
Emirates Dirham (AED) = 100 Fils, and AED = 0.27
USD); and vi) increase Abu Dhabi’s solar energy
capacity to approximately 3.2 GW [49].
3) REST creates jobs: e long-term policy objectives
seen in the GCC countries, including private busi-
ness, education and training, investment in local
skills, capacity building, and human resources, as
well as green economy for sustainable development
[52] can facilitate an increase in the number of jobs
in the REST sector. By 2030, REST could create
more than 207,000 jobs in the Gulf region, with solar
energy technologies accounting for 184,230 jobs [45].
4) e GCC region has great potential for REST –
not just solar: An analysis of the suitability of solar
PV technology in the GCC region reveals strong
potential for deployment across all GCC countries,
with Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE being con-
sidered as leaders. For example, Oman is a country
with the best solar energy resources in the world,
with an average annual solar radiation of 2,200–2,500
kilowatt/meter square (kW/m2) [53, 54]. Moreover,
some regions in Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia are
potentially good for wind resources [55]. Other REST,
such as biomass [48, 56] and geothermal energy [57,
58], may have additional but still unexplored poten-
tial to be implemented in the GCC countries. Based
on the targets set in 2018, which, if met, could lead
to the production of around 72 GW of renewable
energy capacity in the GCC countries by 2030 [45].
5) REST saves water: e increasing demand for water,
due to population growth and development, has
pushed countries into more severe water stress [40,
59, 60]. According to the World Resources Insti-
tute (WRI), 12 of the 17 water-challenged countries
on the Earth, which experience the world’s great-
est water stress, are located in the Middle East and
North Africa (MENA) region, including all six coun-
tries of the Gulf Cooperation Council [40, 61]. If
the GCC countries were to achieve their renewable
energy targets, this would result in an overall reduc-
tion of 17% in water consumption and 12% in energy
consumption. e WEF Nexus’ approach is consid-
ered one of the most practical and viable approaches
to save water (W), reduce energy (E) consumption,
and secure availability of food (F) in the GCC coun-
tries [40]. For the Gulf region as well as for other
parts of the world, the WEF Nexus’ approach has
been extensively and comprehensively investigated,
strongly endorsed, and deeply discussed [40].
Climate change impacts
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [62], global average temperature and sea level are
expected to rise 1.3–5.8°C and 18–58 cm, respectively,
during the year 2100 [63–65]. As a result, the expected cli-
mate change will have many negative impacts on the East-
ern Mediterranean region, which will affect the countries
of the Gulf Cooperation Council. ese impacts include
increasing water scarcity; increasing salinity of soils and
surface water and groundwater; increasing frequency of
extreme weather events (such as heat waves, wildfires, hur-
ricanes, floods, droughts, storm intensity, rapid spread of
diseases, health impacts, etc.); food insecurity; degradation
and loss of biodiversity; desertification; elimination of for-
ests; and induced migration [40, 63, 66–80]. e impacts
of climate change will greatly affect the water resources
in the GCC countries, which mostly depend on seawater
desalination [40]. e daily capacity of desalination plants
in the Gulf region exceeds 11 million cubic meters per day
(MCM/d), which is half of the daily global production of
fresh water, using desalination technologies [81]. ere
is a real “boom” in the desalination industries working
in the GCC countries. e Gulf countries’ majority now
depends largely on desalinated water for the consumption
of their populations: in the UAE, 42% of drinking water
comes from desalination plants, in Saudi Arabia 70%, in
Oman 86%, and in Kuwait 90% [82, 83]. is mechanism
can also be successfully used for hydrogen energy [84],
whereas desalinated water and hydrogen can be produced
from seawater using solar energy. As renewables are inter-
mittent, energy storage plays a pivotal role in the energy
transition. Hydrogen technology is known to be the most
promising and leading choice in the green energy transi-
tion, future-wise [85].
Results anddiscussions
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions andvarious energy
sources (fossil andrenewables)
e concentration of CO2 has increased in particular as
a result of the industrial revolution and the exponential
growth in industrial activities around the world. Defor-
estation, agriculture, and the use of fossil fuels in trans-
portation and other services are the main sources of
carbon dioxide emissions. According to the most recent
data from the Global Carbon Atlas, the top five countries
that have collectively produced the most CO2 since the
industrial revolution are the USA, China, Russia, Ger-
many, and the United Kingdom (UK). In 2020, the largest
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Page 10 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
emitters of CO2 were China, the USA, India, Russia, and
Japan [86–88] (Fig.3).
Despite the fact of being one of the world’s largest
producers and exporters of fossil fuels, the GCC’s total
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are very low (only
2.4%), compared to other regions and countries around
the world. However, the GCC countries are amongst the
countries with the highest per capita emissions of GHG
(particularly CO2) [66, 86, 89–91] (Fig.4).
Accordingly, being one of the largest producers and
exporters of oil and natural gas, as well as having the
highest rates of per capita GHG emissions, there is no
doubt that the GCC countries must share the respon-
sibility with the rest of the world to combat the climate
change impacts mentioned above. erefore, the GCC
countries must take the lead in diversifying energy
sources, by reducing their dependence on fossil fuels and,
thus, introducing more environmentally friendly energy
sources in their use, such as REST. is, over time, will
gradually replace polluting fossil energy sources with
REST, as clean, green, and environmentally friendly
energy sources.
Table 4 shows that the world’s reliance on coal for
electricity generation will drop dramatically by approxi-
mately 75% over the next 20–25 years or so (2017–2040).
Meanwhile, the use of natural gas to generate electricity
will remain the same (Table4); not to mention the effects
of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war on the energy cri-
sis in Europe in particular [92–98].
e outlook for nuclear power have diminished since
last 2017 projections, but China continues to lead the
gradual rise in production [100], overtaking the United
States by 2030 to become the largest producer of nuclear-
based electricity by 2040 (Table4). China is on track to
lead the world in deploying nuclear power technology by
2030. China, if successful, will take global leadership in
nuclear technology development, industrial capacity, and
nuclear power production and management. e impacts
of nuclear energy will be strategic and wide-ranging,
affecting nuclear safety, nuclear security, non-prolifera-
tion, energy production, international trade, and climate
change mitigation and adaptation measures.
Related to this, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war
may prompt some European countries to rethink the
use of nuclear energy to generate electricity, despite its
potential risks [101–103]. “e war is prompting coun-
tries like Belgium to delay nuclear phase-outs to be less
dependent on Russia, but for countries like Germany,
Russia’s missile attacks on nuclear plants reaffirm con-
cerns about safety” [102]. However, Germany, being a
leading country in Europe, in terms of population and
industrial capacity and development, has closed its last
three nuclear power plants in April 2023, marking the
end of the country’s nuclear era that has spanned more
Fig. 3 Top CO2 emitting countries from year 1750 to year 2020 [86]
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Page 11 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
than six decades [104]. is is due to the fact that there
are those who want to end reliance on nuclear technol-
ogy because they see it as unsustainable, dangerous, and
distractive from accelerating REST in Germany. Regard-
less of the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war
and even before it began in February 2022, the world was
expected to double its dependence on nuclear energy
until 2040 (Table4). For instance, in the process of build-
ing a nuclear power plant, the UK said in its latest climate
strategy that nuclear power has a “crucial role in creating
secure, affordable, and clean energy” [104].
Also, the power generated from REST (solar photovol-
taic) will increase dramatically by almost 200% (Table4).
PV capacity globally will jump from 39 to 74 GW, and
wind capacity will jump from 40 to 45 GW (Table4).
Overall, REST will receive two-thirds of global invest-
ment in power plants by 2040 as they are already becom-
ing, for many countries around the world, low-cost and
environmentally friendly sources of energy [99].
According to the International Energy Outlook [105],
greenhouse gas emissions in the Middle East (including
the GCC countries) will grow by 2.3% annually, reach-
ing 201 billion tons in 2030. is relatively low growth
in GHG emissions can most likely be attributed to the
increase in natural gas consumption at the expense of
oil consumption for electricity generation and seawater
desalination. However, the annual increase of GHG emis-
sions in the Middle East (2.3%) is not much compared to
GHG emissions in China, which will rise from 3.5 trillion
tons to more than 7 trillion tons over the period of 2007–
2030. is means that China’s GHG emissions will double
in just 23 years. Accordingly, China needs to take serious
steps and firm actions by developing long-term strategies
and plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “A holistic
assessment of such dimensions of low-carbon technologies,
Fig. 4 Top CO2 emitting countries per capita, 2019 [86]
Table 4 Global average annual power (electricity) generated
from various kinds of fossil and renewable energy sources for the
periods of 2010–2016 and that projected for the period 2017–
2040 [99]
2010–2016 2017–2040
Energy Source Power
Generated
(GW)
Energy Sources Power
Generated
(GW)
Coal 65 Coal 17
Natural Gas 48 Natural Gas 48
Nuclear 2Nuclear 4
Solar PV 39 Solar PV 74
Wind 45 Wind 50
Other Renewables 44 Other Renewables 36
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Page 12 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
as employment, environment, ecology, health impacts
and public acceptance, would improve the assessment on
technology potential, cost effectiveness and spatial layout,
which would also help to promote the synergies between
carbon emission reduction and sustainable development”
[106]. Globally, the 2030 target to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions is expected to rise from 40% (the initial target)
to around 50–55% as part of the Green Deal [107]. How-
ever, there is still uncertainty about how the deal will play
out and who will foot the bill.
e role of natural gas in the transition stage and
beyond has yet to be clarified, as natural gas will have
to be decarbonized, and biohydrogen gas will have to be
assimilated. Regarding the GCC countries, it is believed
that they must adapt some models based on long-term
strategies to achieve a low-carbon future, by relying on
less fossil energy sources that must be replaced by REST,
gradually and efficiently. is can be achieved through
interventions in the built environment, deployment of
REST, technology investments, gradual integration into
global knowledge-intensive industries, and reduction
of large ecological and carbon footprints [108]. is is
in addition to artificial intelligence’s (AI) utilization in
REST. For generation of renewable energies to play a
larger role in the global energy mix, AI may be a key to
achieving higher efficiencies [109].
Ecological andcarbon footprints (EFP andCFP) intheGCC
countries
e total ecological footprint (EFP) of the activities
of a selected population is measured in terms of global
hectares (gha). A global hectare is one hectare (ha) of
biologically productive area with an annual productiv-
ity equal to the global average (1 ha = 0.01 km2 = 10,000
m2). e ecological footprint is a measure of human
demand on the Earth’s ecosystems and a measure of a
unit’s impact on its habitat based on consumption and
pollution.
e biosphere currently contains approximately 11.2
billion global hectares (bgha) of biologically productive
space, which is approximately a quarter of the Planet’s
surface area (Fig. 5). e biologically produced area of
11.2 bgha includes 2.3 bgha from the oceans and inland
waters, and 8.8 bgha from the land. e land portion (8.8
bgha) consists of 1.5 bgha of crop-land, 3.5 bgha of pas-
ture (grazing-land), 3.6 bgha of forest-land, and 0.2 bgha
of built-up land [110, 111].
Currently, most Arab countries face environmental
debts [59, 112]. In global terms as defined by the Organi-
zation for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD), environmental debt refers to the build-up of
past environmental impacts of natural resources’ deple-
tion and environmental degradation, owed to future gen-
erations and measured by costs required to restore the
environmental damage that is economically and techni-
cally restorable [113, 114]. In more elaborating terms,
environmental debt refers to the debt accrued by richer
countries due to their plundering of poorer countries
through exploitation of their resources, degradation of
their natural habitats, free control and/or occupation of
ecological spaces of local populations, in order to be used
for waste disposal, resulting in heavy burden on the envi-
ronment and public health [115, 116]. Within the defini-
tion of environmental debt, two aspects are understood:
Fig. 5 Humanity’s (global) ecological footprint (EFP) in billion global hectares (bgha) over a period of 40 years (1961–2001) [110, 111]
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Page 13 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
1) Environmental damage caused over time to eco-
systems by one country in another, occurring beyond
national jurisdiction and through production and con-
sumption patterns, in violation of international stand-
ards, laws, regulations, and treaties; and 2) Additional
exploitation or further use of ecosystems by a country at
the expense of equitable rights to other countries’ ecosys-
tems, which usually occurs in violation of international
law and treaties.
Compared to the situation some 62 years ago (in 1961),
the average EFP in the Arab region has increased by more
than 57%. is ranges from 1.2 to 2.1 global hectares per
capita (gha/ca) [112]. To understand this sharp jump in
EFP in the Arab region in general and in the GCC coun-
tries in particular, it can be said that there are two main
catalysts behind this dramatic jump, which are: 1) e
3.5-fold population growth, which has led to a significant
escalation in aggregate consumption; and 2) As a result
of rapid development, rising incomes, and changing life-
styles, the Gulf States witnessed sharp increases in the
resources consumed and the services used, including
energy, water, food, fiber, wood, transportation, space
cooling, seawater desalination, etc. is has been at the
expense of the environment (in terms of EFPs) and public
health.
Due to the hot and dry climatic conditions prevail-
ing in the Gulf region, as well as the high rates of water
consumption, large amounts of energy are consumed for
space cooling and seawater desalination [40]. ese fac-
tors, when combined with inefficient consumption and
lack of rational management of natural resources, have
led to a rise in EFPs per capita. As shown in Fig.6, Qatar
has the highest per capita ecological footprint (EFP/ca) in
the world, measuring 11.68 gha/ca, followed by Kuwait
(9.72 gha/ca) and the UAE (8.44 gha/ca). ese EFP rates
are higher than many developed and developing coun-
tries [112, 117–120].
Figure 6 shows that the value of EFPs of Qatar,
Kuwait, and the UAE combined (29.84 gha/ca) is more
than that of all of the top ten African countries com-
bined (24.25 gha/ca). Meanwhile, the total population
of the three Arab Gulf countries (Qatar, Kuwait, and
UAE) is 17.44 million (Table3; above), and the total
population of the ten African countries is about 224
million [121], including two Arab countries in North
Africa, namely Egypt (population ≈103 million) and
Tunisia (population ≈12 million) [121]. ese results
indicate, statistically, that the total per capita of EFP in
the three Gulf countries combined is 1.23 times more
(i.e. 29.84/24.25 = 123%) than that of the ten largest
African countries combined, while the population of
the three Gulf countries combined is less than 8% (i.e.
17.44 million/224 million) of that of the ten African
countries combined.
To make a comparison, these results also indicate that
the average citizen in Qatar (as an Arab country in the
Gulf region) has the highest EFP in the world (11.68
gha/ca) – 9 times more than that of the average citizen
in Morocco (1.32 gha/ca) [112, 122], which is an Arab
country in North Africa. is is despite the fact that the
Moroccan EFP has increased, during the period 1990–
2010, from 1 to 1.47 gha/ca [123]. On the other hand,
biocapacity, which represents productive surface area per
capita, has decreased by 25% since 1960 to 2020, as it has
declined from 1.14 to 0.86 gha/ca [123]. However, these
Morocco’s EFP and biocapacity levels are lower than the
global average levels, as they are globally 2.84 gha/ca
and 1.68 gha/ca for ecological footprint and biocapacity,
respectively. e biocapacity (or biological capacity) of
an ecosystem is an estimate of its production of certain
biological substances, such as natural resources, and its
absorption and leaching of others, such as carbon diox-
ide and other greenhouse gas emissions from the atmos-
phere [124, 125].
In addition, the EFPs of three citizens in Qatar, Kuwait,
and the United Arab Emirates (29.84 gha/ca) exceed the
EFP of the Moroccan citizen (1.32 gha/ca) by about 23
times (i.e. 29.84/1.32). To put this into perspective, if all
human-beings were to live as citizens living anywhere
in the Arab region, 1.2 Planet Earths would be required.
On the other hand, if all of human-beings living on the
Planet Earth were to live as Qataris, for example, it would
need 6.6 Planet Earths to satisfy their standards of living,
including food, water, and energy consumption, as well
as other needs. us, more carbon dioxide emissions will
be emitted into the atmosphere. Conversely, if everyone
were to live as Moroccans with an EFP of 1.32 gha/ca, the
world’s population would only need three-quarters (75%)
of the Planet Earth [112].
Literally, measures of the GCC countries are much
larger than that of the global averages, if the ecological
footprint – EFP – and carbon footprint – CFP – of the
GCC countries are compared with the other part of the
planet (Fig.7). A carbon footprint is defined as the total
greenhouse gas emissions generated by an individual,
event, organization, service, place or product, expressed
in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) [126].
e world population has changed and will continue to
change significantly over the period 1970–2050 (over an
80-year period). is is from 3.7 billion in 1970 to 9.6 bil-
lion (Fig.8), or 9.8 billion in 2050, and to 11.2 billion in
2100, according to the United Nations [128].
On the other hand, carbon dioxide emissions were
14.9 Giga-tons (Gt) in 1970 and are expected to reach 80
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Page 14 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
Gt in 2050 (Fig.8). is means that over a time period
of 80 years, the world population will increase 2.6-fold,
while CO2 emissions will increase 5.4-fold. In more
detail, during the period of 1970–2010 (40 years), the
global population consumed the natural resources of one
Planet Earth (Fig.8), and during the period of 2010–2013
(4 years) the global population consumed the natural
resources of 1.5 Planet Earths (Fig.8). Meanwhile, during
the period of 2010–2050 (40 years) the natural resources
of three Planet Earths are expected to be consumed by
the global population (Fig.8). All of this has happened in
the past 50 years (1970–2020) and will continue to hap-
pen in the next 30 years (2020–2050), but at faster rates
of population’s growth and natural resources’ consump-
tion, leading to the rise of per capita EFP and CFP levels,
as demonstrated in Figs.6, 7, and 8.
Higher levels of EFP and ECP for each individual and
for the entire community indicate greater energy con-
sumption and greater reliance on vehicles and newer
technologies, leading to less activity and, therefore,
less healthy individuals and communities. is refers
to higher rates of energy consumption to meet the
demands of urbanization, industrialization, and modern
life, as well as faster growing economic sectors, such as
transportation, construction, manufacturing, tourism,
catering services, and so on. For example, the number of
vehicles in the GCC countries jumped from around 18
million in 2008 to more than 23 million in 2015 [130].
is reflects an increase of about 28% over a 7-year
period. e data shows that the average car owner-
ship in Dubai, UAE, is approximately one for every two
residents (or 540 vehicles per 1,000 residents), while
in major cities (such as New York, London, Singapore,
and Hong Kong), there are 305, 213, 101 and 63 vehi-
cles per 1,000 residents, respectively [131]. According to
official figures, the number of vehicles in Dubai in 2006
was about 740,000, but this doubled to 1.4 million at the
end of 2014. Adding to the density of vehicles in Dubai,
about 450,000 vehicles from other emirates enter Dubai,
on average, every day [131].
Fig. 6 Countries with biggest ecological footprint (EFP): Upper Raw: The world’s Top 10 countries with the biggest EFP; Lower Raw: The African top
10 countries with the biggest EFP [120]
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Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
Accordingly, the rapid economic growth in the GCC
countries has had negative impacts on the wellbeing of
the environment and public health, resulting in higher
rates of obesity, cardiovascular and cancer diseases and,
thus, higher mortality rates [116, 132–134]. Growth and
progress in the GCC countries over the past three dec-
ades has led to improvements in infant mortality, life
expectancy, and fertility rates [135]. However, despite
these improvements, the region suffers from the type
of health problems that are prevalent in higher-income
societies, where large proportions of the population
are sedentary. Increasing obesity in children, adoles-
cents, and adults, high blood pressure, and higher rates
of diabetes are health problems that the GCC countries
have developed during the last few decades [132]. For
instance, the GCC countries are amongst the regions
with the highest prevalence of diabetes, worldwide [136].
e International Diabetes Federation (IDF) has reported
high prevalence rates of over 20% for diabetes and over
15% for prediabetes in most of the GCC countries. ese
are amongst the highest rates worldwide [137].
In the GCC countries, the largely inefficient combus-
tion of fossil fuels, accelerated momentum of urbaniza-
tion, higher oil revenues, and economic growth have
significant impacts on air quality, as these issues have
contributed negatively to environmental degradation as
a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases into
the atmosphere [138]. In 2011, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and
the United Arab Emirates were amongst the ten coun-
tries with the worst air pollution in the world [112, 139].
“e Gulf region is one of the most polluted in the world
due to its addiction to oil and gas. Qatar leads in expo-
sure to harmful PM2.5 particles, followed by Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, Bahrain, Iraq and Kuwait,” said Julien Jreissati, a
campaigner at Greenpeace Middle East and North Africa
(MENA) [140]. Although the GCC countries cannot give
up their high rates of oil consumption, they are trying to
increase investment in green economies to reduce green-
house gas emissions [141].
Particulate matter of 2.5 microns or smaller (PM2.5)
is one of the deadly elements behind air pollution that
results in terrifying rates of illness and even mortality
amongst all ages of people living in the proximity of pol-
luted areas [116, 142]. It is estimated that air pollution
was responsible for 176,000 premature deaths in 2013 in
the Arab region (including the GCC countries), and a loss
of more than 2% of regional GDP [143–145]. “In the six
Gulf countries, ambient air pollution was responsible for
13,000 premature deaths in 2017. at’s a huge increase
from 10,000 deaths in 2010,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, senior
analyst at Greenpeace Air Pollution Unit, with reference
to the Global Burden of Disease [146].
Municipal solid waste (MSW) intheGCC countries
e world generated 2.01 billion tons of municipal solid
waste (MSW) annually, with at least 33% of that – very
conservatively – not being managed in an environmen-
tally safe way. Worldwide, the average waste generated is
0.74 kg per capita per day (kg/ca/d) but it ranges widely,
from 0.11 to 4.54 kg/ca/d [147].
Regarding the GCC countries, the rise of EFP and CFP
in the GCC countries indicates high rates of consumption
of energy, water, and food, as well as due-services by indi-
viduals, households, and enterprises, which has led to a
rapid increase in generating greater amounts of all kinds
of waste, including MSW (Fig.9), demolition waste, and
electronic and electrical waste.
e MSW generated in 2012 in the Arab countries
(including the GCC countries) amounted to 150 million
tons and is estimated to exceed 200 million tons annually
by 2020 [112], where MSW represents the second largest
stream after construction waste [149]. With an average
per capita production of more than 1.5 kg of MSW per
day (kg/ca/d), the GCC countries are ranked amongst the
top 10 waste-producing countries worldwide. In 2017,
the United Arab Emirates recorded the highest waste
rate per capita per day at 2.1 kg, followed by Saudi Ara-
bia, Qatar, and Bahrain at 1.7 kg/ca/d for each, and finally
Fig. 7 Data of the carbon footprint (CFP in blue) and the ecological
footprint (EFP in green) for the GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait,
Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE), as well as for Iran, Iraq,
and USA, compared with the world’s averages of CFP and EFP
in 2007 [117, 127]
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Page 16 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
Fig. 8 The world’s ecological footprint (EFP) over a period of 80 years (1970–2050) [129]
Fig. 9 Municipal solid waste’s (MSW) generation (in kg/ca/d) in the GCC countries (UAE, KSA, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman), as well as in other
three Arab countries (Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco) for the year 2017 [148]
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Page 17 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
Kuwait and Oman at 1.5 and 1.2 kg/ca/d, respectively
(Fig.9). In comparison, some other Arab countries (i.e.,
Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco) produce much less munici-
pal solid waste than the GCC countries (Fig. 9). If the
per-capita MSW in the three Arab non-Gulf countries
(Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco) were summed, it will result
in 2 kg/ca/d in the three countries together, which is still
less than that amount of MSW (2.1 kg/ca/d) produced in
the UAE alone amongst the GCC countries (Fig.9). Also,
if the MSW’s averages are taken into account, this means
that the GCC average is 1.65 kg/ca/d, compared to 0.67
kg/ca/d in the other three Arab non-Gulf countries, as
demonstrated in Fig.9.
On the other hand, the MSW recycling’s rate in the
GCC countries was, as in 2012, less than 5% of the total
waste generated [112]. In 2016, it increased to 11% in
Kuwait, Oman, and the UAE, while it remained at 1% in
Saudi Arabia and Qatar [150], whereas Oman was not
mentioned. Accordingly, it is estimated that the annual
cost of damages resulting from improper waste manage-
ment exceeds 0.6% of the combined GDP in the Arab
region [112]. In other words, the GCC countries lose
about USD 6 billion annually, due to low recycling rates
[151]. Some countries in the world have already devel-
oped long-term strategies to convert MSW into energy
[145, 152], while the GCC countries have recently entered
the field of this technology [153, 154]. is is despite the
fact that municipal solid waste is a heavy burden on the
economies and environments of the GCC countries, both
individually and collectively. For example, the planned
Al-Dhafra landfill’s site in Abu Dhabi, UAE, will have
an expected treatment capacity of between 600,000 and
900,000 tons of waste per year [146]. Meanwhile, most
of the 50 million tons of waste produced in Saudi Arabia
annually end up in landfills [146], causing massive dam-
ages to the environment and ecosystems altogether.
Sustainable development andtheUnited Nations’
Sustainable Development Goals (UN’s SDGs), withrespect
totheGCC countries
Sustainability or sustainable development (SD) is defined
as development that meets the needs of the present with-
out compromising the ability of future’s generations to
meet their own needs [59, 111, 155]. is means that
sustainable development requires that current economic
activities do not harm the well-being of present and
future’s generations, so that a balance should be main-
tained amongst economic, social, and environmental
capital [59, 111]. Sustainability can be better defined as
the ability to persist or maintain a particular behavior
indefinitely. is covers environmental, economic, and
social sustainability (enviro-econo-social sustainability –
EESS) [59, 111].
Environmental sustainability is the ability to maintain
rates of harvesting of renewable natural resources (such
as water) [156]; to reduce rates of air, water, soil, and noise
pollution; and to manage the depletion of non-renewable
resources (e.g. fossil energy sources: oil, natural gas, coal,
and oil shale) in a way that will continue, indefinitely, for
future generations. Economic sustainability is the ability
to maintain, indefinitely, a certain level of economic pro-
duction that should lead societies to prosperity, stability,
and security (in terms of food, water, land, energy, etc.)
[156]. Social sustainability is the ability of a social system
(e.g., neighborhood, community, state, nation, geopoliti-
cal entity, etc.) to operate, indefinitely, at a specific level
of social welfare, which certainly requires, as precondi-
tions, environmental sustainability and economic sus-
tainability. erefore, for a society whose citizens and
residents enjoy a good life (similar to the situation in all
GCC countries), the society must have thethree pillars
of sustainability (i.e. EESS) to sustain and continue in a
healthy manner of life.
e United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
(UN’s SDGs or SDGs) are a blue dot for achieving a bet-
ter and more sustainable future for all [157, 158]. e
17 SDGs address the global challenges facing humanity,
including those related to poverty, inequality, climate
change, environmental degradation, peace, and justice
(Fig.10).
In order to leave no one behind, it is important that
people, all over the world, need to achieve the SDGs
by 2030. Although the SDGs are interrelated, the goals
discussed here are just a few, with regard to the objec-
tives of this research paper. It should be noted that after
many years of hesitation, the GCC countries are moving
towards achieving and implementing the UN’s SDGs,
although it is likely that only a few goals will be achieved
by 2030, as planned by the United Nations. According
to the report issued by the World Summit Organization
in partnership with the Mohammed bin Rashid School
of Government under the title “Arab Region Sustain-
able Development Goals Index 2022,” only three coun-
tries managed to achieve only one of the 17 goals [159].
Unfortunately, 19 out of the total 22 Arab countries have
not yet achieved any of the United Nations’ Sustainable
Development Goals [159].
Conclusions, recommendations, andpolicy
implications
e global oil market is undergoing fundamental
changes. Oil prices have recently (in 2020/2021) reached
their lowest levels in nearly two decades – most likely due
to the effects of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
on global markets, as demand for fuels (oil and natural
gas) had fallen dramatically. In 2022, prices recovered as
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Page 18 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
a result of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine,
which began on February 24, 2022. ese fluctuations
in fossil energy prices reflect global changes and events
(particularly the COVID-19 pandemic); geopolitical
instabilities (in terms of military conflicts, particularly
the Russian-Ukrainian war and its regional and interna-
tional impacts and consequences, as well as the conflicts
in the Arab region); and the competition amongst the
main global players, including producers and exporters of
hydrocarbon energy resources: oil and natural gas.
e main competitors that produce hydrocarbon
energy sources mainly include the GCC countries, USA,
Russia, Venezuela, Canada, Iraq, and Iran, although Iran
is currently banned from exporting its fuel. is is in
addition to some other countries that currently produce
and sell offshore natural gas from the Mediterranean Sea,
as well as from other onshore and offshore regions of the
world. erefore, more and more countries are becom-
ing players in the global oil and natural gas markets and,
thus, increasingly supplying the global markets with
these commodities, although the world (especially the
USA, China, Europe, and India) is still and will remain
thirsty for oil due to the increased demand for it as a
result of the revolutionary industrialization and develop-
ment activities, globally. is is happening despite the cli-
mate change and other environmental changes and their
negative consequences and effects on the environment
and public health, caused by greenhouse gas emissions
into the atmosphere, as a result of the world’s consump-
tion of large quantities of hydrocarbons.
However, during the past few decades, many countries
of the world have expressed more concern about the
well-being of the environment, in light of the dramatic
environmental changes affecting the globe. Accordingly,
the world has witnessed some growing concerns about
the environment and ecosystems, along with the global
repercussions of military conflicts and geopolitical insta-
bilities around the world. ese factors have prompted
some countries to gradually shift away from the con-
sumption of hydrocarbons, by reducing their dependence
on fossil energy sources and gradually replacing them by
renewable, green, clean energy alternatives. is means
that more countries are increasingly relying on renew-
able energy sources and technologies – REST, as they are
environmentally friendly, especially in light of the mount-
ing geopolitical instabilities and military confrontations
amongst countries around the world.
is situation has encouraged countries, individually
and collectively (such as the European Union – EU) to
legislate policies and develop plans and strategies that
support reduction of their dependence on fossil energy
sources, and to encourage more usage of REST instead,
Fig. 10 United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (UN’s SDG) [157, 158]
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Page 19 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
and to develop further green economies. Accordingly,
some European countries have already relied on nuclear
energy (such as France), while others (such as Ger-
many, Belgium, etc.) have plans to rely more and more
on hybrid energy sources (fossil and REST, mainly wind,
solar, and hydroelectric). Offshore clean energy (wind)
hubs may become essential for efficient generation and
distribution of offshore power in many European coun-
tries. In addition, offshore energy hubs may provide
decarbonized energy supplies for marine transport, oil
and gas extraction, and offshore farming, while also ena-
bling the conversion and storage of decarbonized lique-
fied energy carriers for export.
Crude oil reserves in the GCC countries are estimated
at around 527 billion barrels, constituting approximately
31% of the global reserves, while the countries of the
Middle East and North Africa – MENA – have crude
oil reserves estimated at 744 billion barrels, constituting
approximately 43% of the world’s oil reserves, as indi-
cated in this research. e GCC countries must real-
ize the need to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels,
which requires the implementation of new, efficient, and
effective reforms, plans, strategies, laws, policies, and
regulations, with the aim of diversifying energy sources,
economies, and financial returns. Although there are
some developments in the renewable energy sector in
the GCC countries in the form of current and future pro-
jects, there are no efforts to support the development of
real strategic policies and plans towards further utiliza-
tion of REST, due to the fact that such an approach is still
fairly moderate.
However, due to the current financial situation and
the unstable geopolitical situations in many regions of
the world, financial wealth, in the GCC region and glob-
ally, will probably be depleted in the next few decades.
Accordingly, successful sustainability requires environ-
mental (E), economic (E), and social (S) sustainability (S)
– being described as “EESS.” is EESS approach requires
significant and adequate implementation of sustainability
aspects by the GCC countries, separately and collectively,
in relation to the United Nations’ Sustainable Develop-
ment Goals – UNs SDGs. e pace and momentum of
the GCC countries for this mechanism, initiative, or
approach (i.e. EESS) towards achieving the SDGs by 2030
is a transient or intergenerational choice, as well as a
challenge facing the GCC countries, given the following:
Not achieved any one of the SDGs at the regional level
within the GCC countries, in particular, and in the Arab
region in general.
In conclusion, this paper provides insight in the form
of developing energy transitional strategies, based on
a decarbonization’s approach and provision of advice
on diversifying business models and transforming the
workforce to adapt to the energy transition. is paper
also provides guidance to GCC officials, policymakers,
academics, and research scientists, as well as others con-
cerned across the world, including governments, univer-
sities, research institutions, think-tanks, companies, and
so forth by working through potential scenarios to help
plan the GCC energy transition step by step. New low
carbon technologies are being introduced to the mar-
kets all the time. Integration of future energy and fuel
technologies such as solar, wind, and hydrogen is criti-
cal, although technical solutions exist. e paper could
potentially suggest GCC countries/stakeholders to iden-
tify the appropriate technologies and determine return
on investment and transition from one energy source to
another energy source without causing a disturbance.
It is noted that current and potential future political
instabilities in the MENA region and the world at large,
due to superpowers’ hegemony and control over natu-
ral resources (such as hydrocarbons, water resources,
and minerals), as well as countries’ interventions in the
affairs of each other represent real limitations and chal-
lenges that may face the ambitions, plans, and strategies
presented in this comprehensive research work. ere-
fore, it is seen that the GCC countries should take the
initiative in driving the development of REST and rely
more on them. Accordingly, the Gulf countries will
have the ability to face any dynamic changes from the
future’s perspectives (such as wars, political instability,
and population growth, as well as natural disasters, such
as the impacts of climate change, etc.) that may affect
not only the Gulf region but also the entire world. Such
perspectives, if considered efficiently by the GCC coun-
tries, individually and collectively, will also enable them
to achieve the UN’s SDGs (or at least some of them) –
faster and easier.
As final notes, regarding this research work, there is
nothing to mention about research limitations, in terms
of research objectives, questions, methodology, avail-
ability of data, etc. Also, it is believed that publishing this
important article in this time, in particular, is an impor-
tant step in the right direction. is is because COP28
(the 28th Conference of the Parties, UN Climate Change
Annual Summit 2023) will take place soon in the Gulf
region (in Dubai, UAE), during the period of 30 Novem-
ber until 12 December 2023.
Abbreviations
ADNOC Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
AG Arabian Gulf (also known as Persian Gulf)
AI Artificial Intelligence
ARAMCO Saudi Arabian Oil Company
BAPCO Bahrain Petroleum Company
CFP Carbon Footprint
CO2 Carbon Dioxide
CO2e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
COP26 26Th Conference of the Parties, UN Climate Change Annual
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Page 20 of 26
Salemetal. Sustainable Earth Reviews (2023) 6:10
Summit 2021
COP27 27Th Conference of the Parties, UN Climate Change Annual
Summit 2022
COP28 28Th Conference of the Parties, UN Climate Change Annual
Summit 2023
COVID-1 Coronavirus Disease of 2019
E Energy
EESS Enviro-Econo-Social Sustainability
EFP Ecological Footprint
EFPs Ecological Footprints
EFP/ca Ecological Footprint per Capita
F Food
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GECF Gas Exporting Countries Forum
GHG Greenhouse Gas (emissions)
IDF International Diabetes Federation
KOC Kuwait Oil Company
KSA Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
MENA Middle East and North Africa (region)
MSW Municipal Solid Waste
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
PDO Petroleum Development Oman
PNZ Partitioned Neutral Zone, Kuwait
PV Photovoltaic (solar energy)
QNB Qatar National Bank
QP Qatar Petroleum
REST Renewable Energy Sources and Technologies
R/P Oil Reserve to Oil Production Ratio
SD Sustainable Development
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals (UN’s SDGs)
TOTAL French Oil Company
UAE United Arab Emirates
UN United Nations
USA United States of America
W Water
WEF Nexus Water-Energy-Food Nexus
WRI World Resources Institute
Units
AED Arab Emirates Dirham
bbl Barrel of oil
Bbbl Billion barrel of oil
bbl/ca/d Barrel of oil per capita per day
bbl/d Barrel of oil per day
bb1/d/million Barrel of oil per day per a million of people
bgha Billion global hectares
°C Degrees Celsius
cm Centimeter
gha Global hectares
gha/ca Global hectares per capita
Gt Giga-tons
GW Giga-Watt
ha Hectare
kg Kilogram
kg/ca/d Kilogram per capita per day
km Kilometer
km2 Kilometer square
kWh Kilowatt-hour
kW/m2 Kilowatt per meter square
m Meter
m2 Meter square
MCM/d Million cubic meters per day
MW Mega-Watt
pe/km2 Persons per kilometer square
PM2.5 Particulate matter of 2.5 microns or smaller in size
TCF Trillion cubic feet
TCM Trillion cubic meters
UAE’s Fils United Arab Emirates’ Fils = 0.001 AED
UK United Kingdom
US Cent United States’ Cent
USD United States’ Dollar
Acknowledgements
The authors express their sincere thanks to friends and colleagues who
critically reviewed the paper. They are also grateful to Prof. Dr. Peter Newman
– the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal (Sustainable Earth Reviews, Springer) and
the reviewers (anonymous) for their critical reviews and valuable comments
they made, as well as to the Journal’s management and production teams
(represented in Ms. Rhianna Weston and Mr. Roberto Garbero) for their kind
cooperation and communication during the various stages of submission,
assessment, and production.
Authors’ contributions
The first author – Prof. Dr. Hilmi S. Salem, Palestine, initiated and generated,
significantly and entirely, this research work, while small improvements have
been lately made to it by the co-authors Dr. Musa Yahaya Pudza, Malaysia; and
Dr. Yohannes Yihdego, Australia.
Funding
The research presented in this paper did not receive any funding from any
individuals or organizations.
Availability of data and materials
All data and materials used to serve the purpose of this research are provided
within.
Declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
This research has not been published before and is not considered for publica-
tion anywhere else. No individual participants or subjects were included in
this study and, therefore, there is no need for informed consent.
Consent for publication
All materials presented here do not require approval for publication.
Competing interests
There is no potential conflict of interest of any kind (financial or otherwise).
Author details
1 Sustainable Development Research Institute, Bethlehem, West Bank, Pales-
tine. 2 Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Universiti
Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia. 3 School of Agricul-
ture, Biomedicine & Environment, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC 3086,
Australia.
Received: 14 December 2022 Accepted: 21 August 2023
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