Content uploaded by William P Hall
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by William P Hall on Aug 24, 2023
Content may be subject to copyright.
Homo habilis
to
Homo destructor
―
How the rise of tool-making
apes can destroy the world
William P. Hall
President
Kororoit Institute Proponents and Supporters
Assoc., Inc. - http://kororoit.org
william-hall@bigpond.com
http://www.orgs-evolution-knowledge.net
Presented: U3A Gisborne, 3 Feb, 2020
Gisborne Community Centre, Meeting Room
For continuation on 10 Feb, 2020 see How can we get
off the road to mass extinction our hairy ancestors
opened when they began using tools and fire to dominate
nature?
5 million years in human evolution
How our ape-like ancestors learned to invent tools and
cooperate, and how this turned us into a plague that is
working to consuming and destroying our planet.
Agenda:
–Species, natural selection and the evolutionary imperative
–The African Eden of the tool using apes and our expulsion
–Becoming top carnivores of the African savannahs
–Expanding from Africa to cover the globe
–Agricultural revolution when tools became technologies
–Stories and lore became books and laws
–Exponential explosions of invention and knowledge
–Unending growth inevitably ends in singularities and collapse
2
Species, natural selection
and the evolutionary
imperative
Evolution is all about how living things
accumulate the knowledge they and
their descendents need in order to
survive
Genes & memes – genetic vs cultural adaptation
Genes
–Determine individual anatomical, physiological and neurological
capacities of the organism’s physical fabric
–Mutation: physical change to one or more DNA nucleotides on a
chromosome
Change is slow multi-generational process depending on natural selection
Movement on the adaptive landscape rather than increased versatility
Meme = unit of culture (an idea or value or knowledge or pattern of
behavior) that may be passed between individuals or from one
generation to another by non-genetic means
–Change often takes place within generations depending on innovation,
social relationships and processes
–Transmission limited by genetic capacity to communicate information
–Essential information easily lost or corrupted over generations.
–Rate and extent of cultural accumulation depend on genetic capacity,
group size, (culturally transmitted) cultural practices
Major evolutionary trend in hominids is the growing importance
of memetic evolution
4
“System of heredity”
The heredity of a species/population is knowledge transmitted
from one generation to the next that determines its capacity to
occupy and survive in an ecological niche
Genetic inheritance: my PhD thesis focused on the role of
“genetic systems” in managing hereditary knowledge
–“genetic system” = aspects molecular genetics, cytogenetics, and
population biology that determine evolutionary plasticity, etc.
–These aspects are themselves subject to evolution via natural
selection
Cultural inheritance: survival knowledge helping to determine the
capacity for occupying and surviving an in ecological niche may
also be culturally transmitted
–“cultural system” = aspects of neurobiology, behavior, and population
biology affecting adaptability are also subject to selection
System of heredity = genetic system + cultural system
Hypothesis is that natural selection led humans to evolve
increasingly powerful cultural systems that now gives us
conscious control over our evolution including ability to anticipate
5
Adaptation = application of genetic or cultural
knowledge to solve problems of life
Natural selection on genes works at the level of
individual genetic variation depending on successes of
carriers of particular genes in the population
Selection on cultural knowledge works at the level of
culturally variant groups, depending on successes of
the different groups.
–A group whose shared cultural knowledge allows it to solve
problems other groups can’t solve grows at the expense of
those other groups
–Successful items of cultural knowledge may be carried by
individuals between groups to speed the evolutionary arms
race
Rate of cultural evolution depends on individuals’
genetically determined capacities to understand,
remember, and transmit cultural knowledge
6
Niche shifts (left) vs niche expansions (right). Vertical axis
represents survival probability of particular phenotypes.
Niche shift
–Mutation is blind
–Natural selection tracks current requirements, generally with continuing
specialization and does not anticipate the future
Niche expansion
–Retain original adaptation together with adding new capabilities, i.e.,
accumulation or (very rare) cases of gene duplication and functional
divergence
–New mutation crosses adaptive threshold opening new adaptive landscape
(i.e., grade shift)
7
Slow natural selection working on
genetic level favored increased
manipulative skills and brain power
to support learning skills and
cultural transmission of knowledge
Surviving expulsions from
Eden by learning to use
tools
8
It’s another story, but
Take a closer look at what the little fellows are doing in the
corner
10
Taking fruit from the tree of knowledge and the expulsion
from Eden into the desert (Sistine Chapel)
11
The Bible and Leonardo very much got the story
backwards
—
Actually, Knowledge was found in the desert
11
The expulsion from the garden of Eden
Our direct ancestors were caught in a crack in the earth some 10-
5 million years ago leading to climate deterioration
–Formation of the
East African Rift
–Mountain building
on each side of
the rift blocks
rain from east and
west.
–Floor of the rift
increasingly arid
Grassy woodland
Thorn scrub
Savanna
–Adapting to a hard
life by developing
extractive foraging
13
Exposed to global cooling and growing rifts E African
hominins adapted to a hard life with fewer trees
Uplifted mountains E
and W of the rifts
increasingly block rains
from either direction
Gradual aridification
progressively changes
vegetation structure
–Moist closed forest
–Open forest
–Grassy woodland
–Savanna
–Open grassy scrubland
–Desert
Increased seasonality
Gradual replacement of
fruits by nuts &
underground storage
organs
14 (Envisat)
Hominin evolution and environmental variability over
the past 7 million years
15 Potts 2013. Hominin evolution in settings of strong environmental variability. Quaternary Science Reviews 73, 1-13
Potts & Faith 2015. Alternating high and low climate variability: The context of natural selection and speciation in Plio-
Pleistocene hominin evolution. Journal of Human Evolution - DOI: 10.1016/j.jhevol.2015.06.014
Responses environmental
variability
–Genetics (niche shift)
–Genetics (niche expansion)
–Cultural change
–Cultural accumulation
Impacts of environmental change and variability in E
African Rift (Olduvai, etc.) between 3.0 and 1.5 mya
Long periods (lasting ∼130–330 ky
each) of magnified moist-arid
variability occurred between
3.0 and 1.5 mya.
Possible modes of adaptation
–Fail to track (= extinction)
–Track with adaptive change (shift niche)
–Become more versatile (expand niche)
Limits to genetic adaptation
–Slow & ponderous (intergenerational)
–Do one thing or the other not both
Cultural adaptation
–Fast (intragenerational)
–Group-based phenomenon – cultural
knowledge pertains to group not particular individuals
–Group knowledge easily lost (dependent on intergenerational knowledge transfer, in turn
dependent on genetically determined capacities, group size, structure, and dynamics)
–Culturally transmitted knowledge relating to tool-making and use was grade-shifting
Savanna ape inherited limited capacity to transmit cultural knowledge and
existing culture of simple tool-making and use from CLCA
16
Potts, R. 2013. Environmental and behavioral evidence
pertaining to the evolution of early Homo. Current Anthropology
53(S6), S229-S317.
Our near relatives and ancestors learned to use tools
to increase their diets
17
Becoming top
carnivores of
the African
savannahs
Forest-dwelling chimpanzee-human last common ancestor
(CLCA)
–Primarily frugivorous with some tool-based extractive foraging
–Fission-fusion social structure, some transfer of cultural knowledge
–High selfishness, limited cooperation for defense and hunting
Climate change forced ancestors into savannah habitats
Savannah apes as extractive foragers & scavengers
–Edible plant resources more widely scattered and harder to find
–New kinds of resources needed
Roots, tubers and nuts
Meats
–New dangers
Big cats
Hyenas
Wild dogs
Selection pressures
–Imagine where food might be hidden
–Retain & transfer cultural knowledge
–Increase memory & cognitive capacity
Surviving to reproduce
19
(Tattersall 2012)
19
Hominins using haak en steek branches as tools (Guthrie 2007): a. for driving big cats away from their prey. b. The
simple conversion of a thorn branch into a "megathorn" lance for active hunting.
Cooperative defense and scavenging of carnivore kills cached in trees
gave early hominins increased access to meat on the savanna
Savanna offers limited resource of edible plant foods but a very rich
supply of grass-eating herbivore meat (most food found on the ground)
Chimpanzee social defence against leopards is uncoordinated mobbing
with clubs
- Might be enough to deter leopard from returning to tree cache
-Wouldn’t stop a pride of lions or mob of hyenas on ground
Simple requisites for grade shift to aggressive scavenging on the ground
–Coordinated & cooperative defense and offense using effective deterrence
–Oldowan butchering tools for cutting skin & ligaments
20
Hominins become top savanna carnivores
22
5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
Speciation & increasing brain size over time associated with pulses of
climatic variability (Shultz et al. 2012; Shultz & Maslin 2013)
Original large carnivore guild
–lions, leopards, three sabertooth cats, large
bear, bear-sized wolverine, several large
hyenids, wild dogs, etc.
3 mya aggressive scavanging
2 mya active hunting with spears & cutters
By 1.8 mya Olduvai hunters were top carnivores
taking prime bovid prey (Bunn & Gurtov 2013)
and most large carnivores were essentially extinct
Werdelin & Lewis 2013
Biogeography:
Expanding from Africa
to cover the globe
Alternative hypotheses for early
exits from Africa (after Rightmire &
Lordkipanidze 2010).
–Top: one species (H. erectus) evolved
in Africa and spread through Eurasia.
floresensis was an early offshoot of
erectus
–Bottom: an early African Homo spread
to Eurasia, giving rise to erectus in
Asia, that then returned to Africa.
floresiensis ancestors may have exited
Africa prior to erectus
Common ancestor to sapiens,
neanderthalensis, & denisovans may
be erectus or another independent
exit from Africa
23
After Rightmire & Lordkipanidze 2010
Early human groups pioneered a particular socio-
cognitive niche based on 5 principal capacities
Socio-cognitive niche: cooperation, egalitarianism, mind-reading (theory
of mind), language, cultural accumulation
Principal classes of social cognition in hunter–gatherer bands and
inferred reinforcing relationships between them
24
Whiten & Erdal 2011
26
Early fire users & makers
Wonderwerk Cave ~1.5 mya?, 1.0 mya certain (fire keepers? – Berna et al. 2012)
–South Africa
–Acheulian tool kit (H. erectus?)
Gesher Benot Yaיaqov – 780 kya sporadic for 100 kya span (fire makers? – Goren-Inbar 2011)
–Jordan River, Israel, boggy lake margin
–Acheulian tool kit (H. erectus, ergaster, early sapiens all possible)
–Processed elephant, rhino, bovids, gazelles, fish, crustacea, seeds, nuts, leafy vegetables & made stone
tools around “virtual” hearths
Schöningen ~ 400 - 380 kya – an autumn hunting camp (Thieme 2005)
–Saxony, eastern Germany, peaty lake margin (extraordinary preservation)
–First compound wooden tool (worked branch grooved to hold cutting flakes)
–Acheulian stone tools, 8 sophisticated wooden throwing javelins, 4 outdoor hearths,
–Fossil evidence for the slaughtering, spit roasting and possible smoking of an entire herd of horses at
these hearths (20 complete skulls from all ages)
–Intact spears and javelin may represent ritual offering
Bilzingsleben 370 kya (single occupation period for an open-air hunting camp – Mania & Mania
2005)
–Thuringia, eastern Germany, karstic lake margin (extraordinary preservation)
–Acheulian tool kit (skull fragments suggest late H. erectus, late heidelbergensis, pre Neanderthal, early
sapiens)
–Three “settlement structures” (huts) with internal hearths, four separate “activity areas” identified by
different tool kits & other artefacts (tool making, stone paved area for spit roasting, skin and bone
processing area, paved area with a single hearth & suggestion of ritual alter)
–Fossil remains of elephants, rhinoceros, horses, bison, red deer, fallow deer, roe deer, pigs, cave lions,
cave bears, grey wolves, spotted hyenas, red foxes, badgers, and martens
Homo heidelbergensis campsites in Germany
27
Schöningen II L1 ~ 400 - 380 kya:
flint artifacts, 4 worked fir branches
with slots for flint blades,
1000+ bones of 10 mammal species.
II L4 ~ 100-200 kya later: 9 fire
hardened wood javelins, 2 pointed
throwing stick, 4 hearths(?), flint tools,
bones from 20 + horses, etc.
Thieme et al. 2005;
Stahlschmidt et al. 2015
Schoch, et al. 2015
The Bilzingsleben Site, ~370 kya. Key: 1. Limits of excavated area; 2. Geological
fault lines; 3. Shore line; 4. Sandy travertine sediment; 5. Alluvial fan; 6. Activity
area at the lake shore; 7. Outlines of living structures; 8. Workshop areas;
9. Special workshop area with traces of fire use; 10. Circular paved area;
11. Charcoal; 12. Bone anvils; 13. Stone with traces of heat; 14. Bones with
intentional markings; 15. Linear arrangement of stones; 16. Elephant tusk. 17. Human
skull fragments; 18. Human tooth. (Mania & Mania 2005: p. 101)
28
Cognitive skills needed to accumulate knowledge for niche expansion
(Vaesen 2012; Sterelny 2013, 2014)
Hand-eye coordination - fine motor control needs more neurons
Causal reasoning - time-binding; understand goals, actions, and
consequences
Function representation - associate particular tools with
particular jobs
Natural history intelligence - conscious attention to
understanding the behaviors of predators, prey, fire, other
changing aspects of environment
Executive control – anticipating, deciding & planning; not just
reacting
Social intelligence - extended childhood, social learning
(imitation not emulation), understanding of intentions of others
(mirror neurons?), focused teaching & learning, apprenticeship
Intragroup coordination
Intergroup collaboration
Language
Transferring knowledge from a practitioner to a
learner ‘tacitly’ without speech
Understand the end purpose/goal of performing the technology
–It helps if the practitioner can communicate key ides using gestures and pantomime
Observe the practitioner carry out a component task within the technology.
–try to remember the practitioner’s actions
–try understand end result and purpose (e.g., to prepare something for the next task)
–focus attention on steps that appear to be related to the end purpose
–try to understand how and why the observed step(s) contribute to the end purpose
Try to imitate what the practitioner did
–for each step, did your action produce the same result the practitioner achieved?
–if not, try to understand why not? (watch the practitioner perform the same steps
again, and again, and again…)
–try again, and again, and again… until you get the correct result
–how do the steps go together to complete the task
Put the steps together
–have you achieved the end purpose/goal?
–If not, try to understand why not?
–etc.
If you had seen a fire, needed one, and found a pile of wood, but you had
never seen anyone start a fire and had no writing or pictures showing you
how, how would you do it?
29
30
Coevolutionary cycles for niche construction: tools,
language & culture
Pleistocene coevolutionary cycle
–Increasingly complex technologies for hunting & gathering
require better cognition, culture & language skills to support
technologies
–Domestication of dogs & other animals
Grade shift: agriculture
–Permanent habitations
–Complex tools and industries
–Food storage
–Long range / centralized planning & control
–Technologies for counting, recording, writing and teaching
–Hierarchical social organization and differentiation: kings,
priests, clerks, soldiers/police, artisans, peons/slaves
–Increasing linguistic complexity: abstraction, time & space,
quantitative, sophistication re actors and actions, shading of
qualities and qualifications
Phenomenal changes in the rates in the cultural
accumulation of technical & natural history knowledge
31
~ 5 ma our common ancestors with chimps
knew enough to use simple stone tools
~2.5 ma early Homo knew enough to be top
carnivore on the savanna
~ 400 ka our ancestors began developing more complex.
sophisticated tool kits (acquisition of speech?)
~300 to ~60 ka showed technological quasi stability with
gains & losses possibly showing that cognition may have
reached some kind of capacity limit (e.g., memory)
< 60 ka notable increase in development of complex tech
~60 ka hunter-gatherers invaded
Eurasia as top carnivores
~12 ka beginning Neolithic
(Agricultural) Revolution
~9.5 ka complex urban townships,
e.g., Çatalhöyük
First introductions
of new technologies
McBrearty & Brooks 2000
The Middle Stone Age (Africa) / Middle Paleolithic (Europe) was
a post Acheulian technological plateau (~ 300 → ~ 50 kya)
Primary references: Current Anthropology, Vol. 54, No. S8, Wenner-
Gren Symposium: Alternative Pathways to Complexity: Evolutionary
Trajectories in the Middle Paleolithic and Middle Stone Age
(December 2013: Introduction, Table of Contents)
Acheulian tools continued to be used by other hominins (e.g., H. erectus)
Technology variable through MSA / MP but no clear temporal trends
–Sporadic development and loss of complex technologies
–Operational chains of limited length
Despite major ecological shifts between glacial and inter-glacial there is
no evidence for permanent settlements or cultural shifts from nomadic
hunting and gathering.
–Little technological difference between Neanderthal/Denisovan/archaic H.
sapiens in Europe, anatomically modern sapiens in South Africa, and AM
sapiens in the Levant (eastern Med.) early colonization ~ 100 kya, and
permanent colonization and spread to Eurasia ~ 70 kya
–Populations limited in size to small bands, with evidence that Neanderthals &
Denisovans passed through more severe genetic bottlenecks than sapiens
Even with language, the capacity for cultural memory was limited
32
33
How much knowledge does it take to make & use tools?
Killing prey with stone-tipped spears
Understanding cognitive demands of technologies
Thinking a stone-tipped spear
–sequence of steps to make a spear used to bring down prey
(chains of operation/cognigram)
–making a bow and arrow set is at least 3x more difficult
–each arrow indicates ordered application of specific knowledge
(Lombard 2012; Lombard & Haidle 2012)
Development of increasingly complex
stone tools (after Stout 2011), correlates
with increasing brain capacity and
development of language.
Even with language, knowledge is limited
by what can be learned, remembered,
and passed on by single individuals.
By < 500 kya, pace of change in the
capacity to deal with multiple complexities
is too fast to be explained genetically
< 50 kya increasing rate of change
suggests major cultural innovation to
support accumulation of much larger
volumes of knowledge.
mnemonics: use of specific mental aids to
again increase the capacity, accuracy and
duration of living memory to store
knowledge
–Storage
–Indexing
–Recall
–Transmission
What enabled increasing tool complexity?
34
Acheulian
Oldowan
Introduction & exponential
growth of new technologies
Estimating the extent of
the new knowledge
required to support the
Agricultural Revolution in
the Neolithic
From hunting and gathering (12,000 kya) to
Çatalhöyük (9,500 ka) in ~2,000 years
Mesolithic: ~22,000 - ~11,500 kya
Neolithic: ~10,000
How was the new knowledge
accumulated, stored and
transmitted?
(before invention of writing!)
Becoming settled – surmounting the limitations of
nomadic life
Mobile populations are limited to technology they can carry with them or fabricate on demand
Accumulating knowledge for more, and more effective technologies enables more effective
harvesting of resources over smaller geographic areas
–Increased population size adds capacity for further accumulation of specialized cultural knowledge
Becomes practical to establish core living areas
–Permanent shelters (i.e., houses)
–Accumulation of tools and construction of specialized processing areas
–Specialized structures for the long-term, safe storage of food, other resources and cultural activity
Reduced contact with the broad landscape combined with need to manage more and more
specialized technology related knowledge
–Paths in the landscape no longer provide useful indexes for those trades & guilds that don’t traverse them
–Need to make new mnemonic paths in compactly constructed landscapes
Solution: Kelly (2012). When Knowledge was Power: Build compact monumental landscapes that
can be traversed sequentially (e.g., Göbekli Tepe, Stonehenge, Poverty Point, Chaco Canyon
Kivas, etc.)
–Göbekli Tepe (not fully excavated) dated ~ 11 kya southern Turkey 3 ka before the agricultural revolution
No habitations in immediate vicinity
Several circular structures containing iconic monuments
Suggestion: each specialization had its own guild-hall for the rehearsal and
transmission of its secret and arcane knowledge
Sequence of memorable markers used as mnemonic index loci organized to be
traversed in ritual procession & dance
May be a number of levels of recognized expertise where initiates must
demonstrate accuracy and and completeness of their memory
–Other sites from primary oral cultures have similar features
36
Cognitive advances enable grade shifting revolutions in cultural
and organizational cognition
Accelerating change in extending human cognition
–> 5 million years ago – social defence cooperative foraging &
hunting self-organized, knowledge-based groups
–~ 2.0 mya - socially coordinated activities around campfires to
share group knowledge (mime, dancing, singing, story-telling, myth,
ritual)
– ~ 200 thousand years ago – mnemonic songlines apply ritual &
method of loci to landscapes to build & retain cultural memories
–~ 12 kya – mnemonic guilds & monumental architectures enable
husbandry, settlement, farming & economic specialization
–~ 7 kya – tokens & writing enable bureaucratic cities & states
–~ 600 years ago – communications, coordination & rise of chartered
companies
–~ 100 ya – instant communication & rise of transnationals
–~ Now – emergence of global brains & global cognition
Expanding role of cultural knowledge will be explored in further
sessions 37
37
38
Knowledge-based revolutions in material technology cause grade
shifts in the ecological nature of the human species
Accelerating change in our material technologies:
–> 5 million years ago - Tool Making: sticks and stone tools plus
fire (~ 1 mya) extend human reach, diet and digestion
–~ 12 thousand years ago - Agricultural Revolution: Ropes and
digging implements control and manage water and non–human
organic metabolism
–~ 560 years ago Printing enables Reformation & Scientific
Revolution
–~ 2.5 centuries ago - Industrial Revolution: extends/replaces
human and animal muscle power with inorganic mechanical
power
–~ 50 years ago - Microelectronics Revolution: extends human
cognitive capabilities with computers
–~ 5 years ago - Cyborg Revolution: convergence of human and
machine cognition with smartphones (today) and neural
prosthetics (tomorrow)
38
Mnemonics, settlement, the agricultural revolution
and increasing cultural complexity
With settlement, nomadic groups become territorial and build villages
Positive feedback drives ever-increasing growth rate of cultural knowledge accumulation for
ever-increasing ecological hegemony over environmental resources
–Culturally accumulating knowledge enables more efficient/effective control & of local resources
–Surplus resources enables population growth providing more capacity for cultural memory
–Development of ever more sophisticated mnemonic devices
–Greater population allows more specialization of crafts, trades and guilds able to accumulate still
more varied and detailed knowledge of the world’
Cf Masonic ritual, craft guilds
Tracking demographic and cultural transitions in the Near East from small nomadic groups
of hunter-gathers, through settled groups of local foragers, to the formation of
agricultural towns:
–Bar-Yosef, O. 2011. Climatic fluctuations and early farming in West and East Asia. Current
Anthropology 52(S4), S175-S193 - http://tinyurl.com/lv5rhgn.
–Goring-Morris, A.N., Belfer-Cohen, A. 2011. Neolithization process in the Levant: the outer envelope.
Current Anthropology 52(S4), S195-S208 - http://tinyurl.com/kjgyu5d.
–Belfer-Cohen, A., Goring-Morris, A.N. 2011. Becoming farmers: the inside story. Current Anthropology
52(S4), S209-S220 - http://tinyurl.com/lrttpv6
–Zeder, M.A. 2011. The origins of agriculture in the Near East. Current Anthropology 52(S4), S221-
S235 - http://tinyurl.com/mr8grhj
–Vigne, J.-D., Carrère, I., Briois, F., Guilaine, J. 2011. The early process of mammal domestication in
the Near East: new evidence from the Pre-Neolithic and Pre-Pottery Neolithic in Cyprus. Current
Anthropology 52(S4), S255-S271 - http://tinyurl.com/kr4yvyo
–Bocquet-Appel, J.-P. 2011. The agricultural demographic transition during and after the agriculture
inventions. Current Anthropology 52(S4), S497-S510 - http://tinyurl.com/kh2yhns
39
Global footprint
Humanity’s growing population and affluence has already
exceeded the “carrying capacity” of our planet.
In 2015 the Global Footprint Network estimated that “humanity
uses the equivalent of 1.7 planets to provide the resources we
consume and absorb our waste”, or more than 1½ years to replace
one year’s biological resources we use and to absorb our waste.
This does not include:
–Depletion of critical non-renewable resources for our technologies such as
oil, rare elements, etc.
–Unsustainable use of fertile soil and fresh water
–Collapse of world fisheries
–Human induced global warming and climate change leading to ocean
acidification, rising sea levels and inundation of prime agricultural lowlands.
–the impacts our footprint has on possible keystone species, critical for
maintaining ecosystem health
Rising extinction rates suggests we are teetering on the edge of
ecological collapse
WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE US GOING INTO THE FUTURE?
40
Hyperexponential growth in computing technology.
Many other technologies have also grown exponentially
Beyond flat
IC’s
–3D IC’s
Heat
management
–Biomolecular
(e.g., DNA)
Speed
Transduction
Interface
–Quantum
Heat
management
41
Ray Kurzweil 2013
Moore’s Law:
Since the invention of integrated circuit chips, the number of
transistors on a chip has doubled ~every two years.
43
My first computer (1981)
My current computer
Quad Core i7 (~2010)
As of 2017, the commercially available processor
possessing the highest number of transistors is the
48 core Centriq with over 18 billion transistors
We’re eating and burning the world to produce the
carbon emissions causing global warming
44
Road transport, chainsaws, bulldozers, and
fire – all converting fossil fuel and biomass
into greenhouse gasses, water vapor, and
soot – are used to clear land for short
term farming until the leached tropical
soils are exhausted
Click circle for Google map:
Zoom in to see detail.
Zoom out and rotate world to see global
imprint of human activity
Human population growth has largely been fueled by
the burning of fossil fuels
The burning of fossil fuels creates greenhouse gases
–Per capita in 1939, ~ 26 x 109 joules x 2.3 x 109 = 59.8 x 1018 joules total
–Per capita 2010, ~ 62 x 109 joules x 7.4 x 109 = 458.8 x 1018 joules total
–World fossil fuel consumption today is ~7.67 times what it was when I
was born
45
3 million year correlation between atmospheric CO2
and global average temperature
The long-term CO2 decrease leads to the initiation of Northern
Hemisphere glaciation and an increase in the amplitude of glacial-
interglacial variations, while the combined effect of CO2 decline and
regolith removal controls the timing of the transition from a 41,000- to
100,000-year world. Our results suggest that the current CO2
concentration is unprecedented over the past 3 million years and that
global temperature never exceeded the preindustrial value by more than
2°C during the Quaternary.
46
Straight-forward consequences of increasing
temperatures mediated by physical laws
Lands and oceans heat up
Sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers melt – esp. in contact with ocean
–Sea level rise accelerates forcing human retreats from present shores
Ice free polar oceans absorb more heat and warm faster (+ feedback)
Atmosphere heats up (positive feedback)
–Hot air evaporates and carries water from land and sea
–carries more water & generates more extreme weather
Longer warmer, drier, and windier seasons
–Droughts & crop failures famine and social breakdown
–Tree deaths and forest die-offs savanna ecology
–More frequent, longer lasting, and more severe wildfires desertification
–Carbon capture turned into carbon emission (positive feedback)
Permafrost melting & tundra/boreal forest burning
–Permafrost & peat soils release previously frozen GHGs forcing temperatures
higher, faster (positive feedback runaway global warming)
Animal, plant and human physiological heat tolerance exceeded
–Deaths due to heat stress (see Just what is the thermal niche)
–Dieoffs local extinctions ecosystem collapse mass extinctions
–Human social and technological collapse local extinctions total human
extinction as part of the 6th global mass extinction
47
Thought you might want a closeup of Australia
49
Where 2019 was the
hottest year since 2003
Consequence of drought, heat, winds
Extent of bushfires in SE Australia up to 27/01/2020
And they are still burning – more than doubling national CO₂ emissions!
50
80% of Blue Mountains and 53% of
Gondwana rainforests burn in bushfires
Even rain forests and swamps that probably
haven’t burned for many thousands of years
have burned. Many species with limited
distributions in moist forest areas are likely to
go extinct as a consequence of these fires –
which are still burning and expanding.
We may still be able to make a choice to avoid total
destruction and mass extinction
Humanity risks its continued
existence in a finite world
51
Will the exponential growth of human population,
knowledge and technology end in a singularity,
spike, or an inflected S-curve
The first option – infinite growth – is impossible
The second option – unsustainable exponential
growth followed by a catastrophic climatic/
ecological collapse - is all too likely. This is the
path we are on now. The tipping point is not far
away if it is not already too late
The third option – a sustainable steady state -
may still be possible to achieve if we act now
Survival will require deep cultural
change from individual striving for
continuous growth to striving for
sustainability.
This change can only be achieved
through individuals working
together for the common good