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Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management INCOME AS A PRIMARY DRIVER OF SOUTH AFRICAN INNER CITY MIGRATION
Abstract
Drivers of migration to the inner areas of the five largest South African cities are investigated using computational modelling based on survey data. The primary migration driver for South African cities is established to be the need to find work but this is related to income in terms of salary distributions. These distributions vary for the different cities and fall into two groups, those with a normal distribution and those that peak in a very low income bracket. The link between these distributions and "attractiveness to move to a city" is considered using a simple model.
Most cities in South Africa are in dire need of water security. Intervention measures to reduce the risk of water shortages now and the near future are urgently needed. This can possibly be attained through the diversification of water sources and the application of smart or digital technologies to reduce water wastage. Meaning that, cities which are at risk of water scarcity may consider a variety of alternative means, which includes smart technologies and efficient use of recycled water to meet the ever-increasing demand. In this study the status of water security and sanitation in two inland cities (i.e. Mbombela (Nelspruit) and Polokwane (Pietersburg)) was investigated. A gap between supply and demand for water to households was found to be large. The primary demand for water derives from households that are connected to the municipal reticulation system and used for drinking and sanitation. Water security concerns were found to be from households in need of water supply and unmeasured demands from informal settlements that are illegally connected to the system. The uncertain nature of water availability due to climate change meant that the risk of water insecurity in studied cities was high. To ameliorate this, municipalities need to adopt new ways of managing water. This may include the use of digital technologies and the promotion of harvesting rainwater as an alternative source. Maintenance of existing infrastructure is highly recommended to improve efficiencies in water usage. Overall, results reflect the high risk of water security in Mbombela and Polokwane. Of great concern is the need to manage water to improve the efficiency of its use to meet the ever-increasing demand.
Cities are important forces of national socioeconomic development. Individuals in cities often belong to different socioeconomic statuses depending on their levels of income, education and nature of occupation. Income, employment and education opportunities are among the main attractions of most cities. In this study, we investigate the impact of socioeconomic status on city attractiveness for the African cities of Windhoek, Harare, Lusaka, Kinshasa and Nairobi. The socioeconomic status of samples of individuals in these cities are used to formulate a mathematical model that describes the city population dynamics. Using income as a measure, qualitative analyses of the model together with numerical simulations using survey data show how competitive relationships among the various socioeconomic status groups could widen inequality over time. Alternatively, synergetic relationships among the various socioeconomic groups could reduce this inequality. These results point to urban planning that encourages synergism between the different income classes with the aim of reducing inequality.
The need to quantify and model transformations that have taken place in the cities of South Africa is one of the grand challenges linked to country’s transition to Democracy. Given the complexities associated with different stages of city transformation, it is imperative that models used to unpack processes of city transformation are novel. In this study it emerged that statistical methods alone are not adequate to fully present, in a comprehensible way, all facets of drivers of city transformation. As a result, statistical methods have been combined with mathematical and system dynamics models. Results revealed that city transformations derive from a number of triggers. Underlining these are income, migration and houses. The empirical data collected through questionnaire survey that was later incorporated into mathematical models demonstrated that income is a primary driver that fuels city migration. System Dynamic Models demonstrated that the availability of houses or accommodation serve as constraints that keep the city population within the limits of the carrying capacity of a city. In addition it was further confirmed, through mathematical models that income has varying effects on the attractiveness of cities. This was found to be linked to the shape of the distribution of income in the city. A normally distributed income with a peak in the middle results in a city being more attractive than an evenly distributed income that peaks either at very low or high income levels. This observation brought forth a need to test heterogeneity when analyzing city transformation using income as an index. Mathematical Models that incorporated heterogeneity demonstrated the usefulness of systems analysis in unpacking the mechanism of city transformation, a component of city management that requires serious consideration for planning, budgeting and provision of limited resources like houses in the cities. Success of methods used in this study led to a conclusion that these can be enhanced through other techniques like agent based models. With this call, improvements on this study that can be attained through these techniques are recommended. This will enrich the understanding of the transformation and dynamics of cities under different conditions than those that exist in South Africa.
Introducing a special journal issue by the same title, this article provides a foundation for seven other articles with a theoretical mission to better understand the forces and frictions through which migration comes about and is experienced. The collection seeks to contribute to migration theory by considering crosscutting themes related to the concepts of aspiration, desire and drivers of migration. This introductory article locates the three concepts within the development of migration scholarship. First, we show how a reappraisal of theory is grounded in influential developments in migration scholarship, such as the transnational turn, feminist approaches and, more recently, a growing theoretical interest in emotions and temporalities. Second, we examine the ways in which ‘aspiration’ and ‘desire’ have figured in migration theory. Sometimes treated as synonyms, the terms both belong to a broader semantic field of potentiality, yet connect with different theoretical approaches. Third, we address the rise of ‘drivers of migration’ as an analytical concept, noting how it seems to be replacing ‘causes’ and ‘determinants’ in the literature.
During the socialist era, inner residential areas of Eastern European cities were left to decay both physically and socially, and became mostly occupied by elderly inhabitants. Drawing on 2007-2011 EU-SILC data, we have analysed processes of socio-spatial differentiation in the inner cities of Prague and Tallinn during the post-socialist era, and indicate the household-level drivers of such differentiation. We found a high preference for inner city living among young people and childless households, but also the persisting patterns of elderly population in some inner city sub-areas. A weak correlation between household socio-economic status and place of residence in the inner city, however, suggests that inner cities continued to be socially mixed in the late 2000s, although differences existed in this regard between sub-areas and between the two studied cities. To a large extent, such differentiation relates to the roots found within socialist and pre-socialist legacies, but it also contains new post-socialist features, such as those created by different social and housing policies applied during the post-socialist reforms.
Movements of people are a crucial element in global integration. Most destination countries favour entry of the highly skilled, but restrict entry of lower-skilled workers, asylum seekers and refugees. A major cause of migration is the growing inequality in incomes and human security between more- and less-developed countries. Further driving factors include uneven economic development; rapid demographic transitions; and technological advances in transport and communications. Increasingly migrants do not shift their social existence from one society to another, but maintain transnational connections. The global economic crisis since 2008 has brought a hiatus in some of these factors, but has not undermined their long-term significance. Australia's traditional model of permanent-settlement migration needs to be adjusted to the new realities of global mobility and connectivity.
Developing country urban contexts present multiple challenges to those responsible for ensuring the good health of urban populations. These include urban growth, migration, informal settlements, intra-urban inequalities and - in some cases - high HIV prevalence. Using Johannesburg as a case study, this paper explores the complexities of the urban context by comparing the social determinants of urban health between migrant groups residing in the inner-city and a peripheral urban informal settlement. It is argued that any attempt to improve the health of urban populations in the context of migration and HIV requires understanding that 'place matters'.
A variety of growth curves have been developed to model both unpredated, intraspecific population dynamics and more general biological growth. Most predictive models are shown to be based on variations of the classical Verhulst logistic growth equation. We review and compare several such models and analyse properties of interest for these. We also identify and detail several associated limitations and restrictions.A generalized form of the logistic growth curve is introduced which incorporates these models as special cases. Several properties of the generalized growth are also presented. We furthermore prove that the new growth form incorporates additional growth models which are markedly different from the logistic growth and its variants, at least in their mathematical representation. Finally, we give a brief outline of how the new curve could be used for curve-fitting.
Drivers can be understood as forces leading to the inception of migration and the perpetuation of movement. This article considers key drivers of migration and explores different ways that they may be configured. We modify existing explanations of migration to generate a framework which we call push-pull plus. To understand migration flows better, analysts could usefully distinguish between predisposing, proximate, precipitating and mediating drivers. Combinations of such drivers shape the conditions, circumstances and environment within which people choose to move or stay put, or have that decision thrust upon them. In any one migration flow, several driver complexes may interconnect to shape the eventual direction and nature of movement. The challenge is to establish when and why some drivers are more important than others, which combinations are more potent than others, and which are more susceptible to change through external intervention. Drawing on Afghan and Somali movements featuring ‘mixed migration’, the article concludes that proximate and mediating drivers, rather than those in the structural and precipitating spheres, appear to offer greater potential for intervention. To be effective, though, migration policy should be understood not simply as a stand-alone lever, but within the wider political economy.
This paper uses a content analysis of the published literature to take stock of current understanding of key social and policy drivers of migration to cities in 11 Asian and African mega-deltas and identifies commonalities and differences among them. The analysis shows that migration to urban centers in mega-deltas is an outcome of many forces: economic policies and incentives, local and destination institutions, government policies to develop small towns, and the geographic concentration of investments. Massive influx of capital to many deltas has transformed the local economic base from a primarily agricultural one to a manufacturing and processing economy. This has created uneven spatial economic development which is the underlying driver of migration to cities in the mega-deltas regardless of geographic context or size. Going forward to 2060, one critical challenge for all the deltas is to increase the labor skill of their workforce and foster technology innovation. Continued economic growth in these regions will require substantial investments in education and capacity building and the ability of urban centers to absorb the migrant labor pool.
Sub-Saharan Africa has been strongly affected by the global recession, despite initial optimism that the global financial system would have few spillover effects on the continent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in 2009 that average economic growth in Africa would slow to 1%, from an annual average of over 6% to 1% over the previous five years, before rebounding to 4% in 2010. As a region, Africa is not thought to have undergone a recession in 2009. However, most African countries are thought to require high rates of economic growth in order to outpace population growth and make progress in alleviating poverty. The mechanisms through which the crisis has affected Africa include a contraction in global trade and a related collapse in primary commodity exports, on which many countries are dependent. Foreign investment and migrant worker remittances are also expected to decrease significantly, and some analysts predict cuts in foreign aid in the medium term if the crisis persists. Africa's most powerful economies have proven particularly vulnerable to the downturn: South Africa has experienced a recession for thefirst time in nearly two decades, and Nigeria and Angola have reported revenue shortfalls due to the fall in global oil prices. Several countries seen as having solid macroeconomic governance, notably Botswana, have sought international financial assistance to cope with the impact of the crisis. At the same time, a number of low-income African countries are projected to experience relatively robust growth in 2009 and 2010, leading some economists to talk of Africa's underlying economic resilience. The 111th Congress has monitored the impact of the global economic crisis worldwide. The Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2009 (P.L. 111-32), provided $255.6 million for assistance to vulnerable populations in developing countries affected by the crisis. While an initial House report indicated several countries, including five in Africa, should receive priority consideration, the subsequent conference report did not specify recipients. In August 2009, the Obama Administration notified Congress that four African countries-Ghana, Liberia, Tanzania, and Zambia-would benefit from the funds appropriated in the supplemental. More broadly, U.S. policy responses to the impact of the crisis overseas have focused on supporting the policies of multilateral organizations, including the IMF, the World Bank, and the African Development Bank (AfDB). These organizations have increased their lending commitments and created new facilities to help mitigate the impact of the global crisis on emerging market and developing countries worldwide. This chapter analyzes Africa's vulnerability to the global crisis and potential implications for economic growth, poverty alleviation, fiscal balances, and political stability. The report describes channels through which the crisis is affecting Africa, and provides information on international efforts to address the impact, including U.S. policies and those of multilateral institutions in which the United States plays a major role. For further background and analysis, see CRS Report RL34742, The Global Financial Crisis: Analysis and Policy Implications, coordinated by Dick K. Nanto.
Background
Hundreds of thousands of men from rural areas of South Africa and neighboring countries have come to seek work in the gold mines. They are not immigrants in the usual sense as they work for periods in the mines, go home, and then return. This is termed oscillating or circular migration. Today we have serious interrelated epidemics of silicosis, tuberculosis, and HIV infection in the gold mining industry.Methods
This article discusses the role of oscillating migration in fuelling these epidemics, by examining the historical, political, social, and economic contexts of these diseases.ResultsThe impact of silicosis, tuberculosis, and HIV infection extends beyond individual miners to their families and communities.Conclusion
Failure to control dust and tuberculosis has resulted in serious consequences decades later. The economic and political migrant labor system provided the foundations for the epidemics seen in southern Africa today. Am. J. Ind. Med. 53:398–404, 2010. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
The standards laid down by the National Center for Health Statistics in the USA were used to assess the nutritional status of children (0--5 years) in the Zones, an urban migrant council-built hostel complex in Langa, outside Cape Town. Of the children, 5.7% were below the 3rd percentile of weight-for-age (acute undernutrition). There was a significant difference between age categories and an increase in age was associated with an increase in proportion of children below the 3rd percentile. Acute undernutrition was significantly higher for children born outside Cape Town. There was a significant difference between age groups and percentage of children below the 3rd percentile of height-for-age (chronic undernutrition). Chronic nutritional levels were also significantly higher for children not born in Cape Town. Yet there were no significant differences between proportions of children under the 3rd percentile of height-for-weight (current nutritional status) for age category or place of birth. These results suggested that while in town children were adequately nourished, this was not the case at their home-base. Chronic undernutrition findings indicated an incremental negative effect of the poverty of the home-base on the long-term health status of hostel migrant children.
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