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Global Transportation Decarbonization
Abstract
Replacing fossil fuels in the name of decarbonization is necessary but will be particularly difficult due to their as-yet unrivaled bundle of attributes: abundance, ubiquity, energy density, transportability and cost. There is a growing commitment to electrification as the dominant decarbonization pathway. While deep electrification is promising for road transportation in wealthy countries, it will face steep obstacles. In other sectors and in the developing world, it’s not even in pole position. Global transportation decarbonization will require decoupling emissions from economic growth, and decoupling emissions from growth will require not only new technologies, but cooperation in governance. The menu of policy options is replete with grim tradeoffs, particularly as the primacy of energy security and reliability (over emissions abatement) has once again been demonstrated in Europe and elsewhere.
The urgency of climate change and environmental degradation requires
green innovations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, minimise pollution,
and preserve natural resources and biodiversity. Encompassing both
technological and non-technological advancements, these innovations often
face underinvestment and structural lock-ins to existing technologies.
Developments, however, are highly sector- and technology-specific. This
paper examines the distinct characteristics of green innovation and
explores specific development and diffusion dynamics in four key sectors:
green hydrogen, green steel, batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). While
green hydrogen and green steel remain nascent due to high costs and
limited market adoption, batteries and EVs are more mature but challenged
by overcapacity and infrastructure gaps. Addressing existing challenges
and maximising the potential of green innovation requires mobilising the
entire innovation ecosystem, targeted policy support and changes in
consumption patterns.
We conduct a systematic and interdisciplinary review of empirical literature assessing evidence on induced innovation in energy and related technologies. We explore links between demand-drivers (both market-wide and targeted); indicators of innovation (principally, patents); and outcomes (cost reduction, efficiency, and multi-sector/macro consequences). We build on existing reviews in different fields and assess over 200 papers containing original data analysis.
Papers linking drivers to patents, and indicators of cumulative capacity to cost reductions (experience curves), dominate the literature. The former does not directly link patents to outcomes; the latter does not directly test for the causal impact of on cost reductions). Diverse other literatures provide additional evidence concerning the links between deployment, innovation activities, and outcomes.
We derive three main conclusions. (1) Demand-pull forces enhance patenting; econometric studies find positive impacts in industry, electricity and transport sectors in all but a few specific cases. This applies to all drivers - general energy prices, carbon prices, and targeted interventions that build markets. (2) Technology costs decline with cumulative investment for almost every technology studied across all time periods, when controlled for other factors. Numerous lines of evidence point to dominant causality from at-scale deployment (prior to self-sustaining diffusion) to cost reduction in this relationship. (3) Overall Innovation is cumulative, multi-faceted, and self-reinforcing in its direction (path-dependent). We conclude with brief observations on implications for modeling and policy.
In interpreting these results, we suggest distinguishing the economics of active deployment, from more passive diffusion processes, and draw the following implications. There is a role for policy diversity and experimentation, with evaluation of potential gains from innovation in the broadest sense. Consequently, endogenising innovation in large-scale models is important for deriving policy-relevant conclusions. Finally, seeking to relate quantitative economic evaluation to the qualitative socio-technical transitions literatures could be a fruitful area for future research.
div class="section abstract"> As part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) continuing assessment of advanced light-duty automotive technologies in support of regulatory and compliance programs, a 2018 Toyota Camry A25A-FKS 4-cylinder, 2.5-liter, naturally aspirated, Atkinson Cycle engine with cooled exhaust gas recirculation (cEGR) was benchmarked. The engine was tested on an engine dynamometer with and without its 8-speed automatic transmission, and with the engine wiring harness tethered to a complete vehicle parked outside of the test cell. Engine and transmission torque, fuel flow, key engine temperatures and pressures, onboard diagnostics (OBD) data, and Controller Area Network (CAN) bus data were recorded. This paper documents the test results under idle, low, medium, and high load engine operation. Motoring torque, wide open throttle (WOT) torque and fuel consumption are measured during transient operation using both EPA Tier 2 and Tier 3 test fuels. The design and performance of this 2018 2.5-liter engine is described and compared to Toyota’s published data and to EPA’s previous projections of the efficiency of an Atkinson Cycle engine with cEGR. The Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE) map for the Toyota A25A-FKS engine shows a peak efficiency near 40 percent, which is the highest value of any publicly available map for a non-hybrid production gasoline internal combustion (IC) engine designed to run on 91 RON fuel. Further improvement is possible by application of fixed discrete or full continuous cylinder deactivation, both of which are currently in production on other engines.
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Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester
carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers
worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted
to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based
ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases
for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns
about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA)AND MYANMAR
http://www.iea.org/about/ourmission/
Founded in 1974, the IEA was initially designed to help countries co-ordinate a collective response to major disruptions in the supply of oil, such as the crisis of 1973/4.
While this remains a key aspect of its work, the IEA has evolved and expanded significantly.
http://www.iea.org/countries/non-membercountries/myanmar/
Myanmar-Statistics for this country
Balances,Indicators,Coal,Oil,Natural Gas,Renewables Electricity / Heat
To properly evaluate the prospects for commercially competitive battery electric vehicles (BEV) one must have accurate information on current and predicted cost of battery packs. The literature reveals that costs are coming down, but with large uncertainties on past, current and future costs of the dominating Li-ion technology. This paper presents an original systematic review, analysing over 80 different estimates reported 2007-2014 to systematically trace the costs of Li-ion battery packs for BEV manufacturers. We show that industry-wide cost estimates declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from above US410 per kWh, and that the cost of battery packs used by market-leading BEV manufacturers are even lower, at US$300 per kWh, and has declined by 8% annually. Learning rate, the cost reduction following a cumulative doubling of production, is found to be between 6 and 9%, in line with earlier studies on vehicle battery technology. We reveal that the costs of Li-ion battery packs continue to decline and that the costs among market leaders are much lower than previously reported. This has significant implications for the assumptions used when modelling future energy and transport systems and permits an optimistic outlook for BEVs contributing to low-carbon transport.
The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to rise rapidly in the developing world due to their economic growth and population growth—the latter most notably in the poorest countries.
Lowering fertility has many benefits for the poorest countries. Studies indicate that, in high fertility settings, fertility decline facilitates economic growth and poverty reduction. It also reduces the pressure on livelihoods, and frees up resources to cope with climate change. And it helps avert some of the projected global warming, which will benefit these countries far more than those that lie at higher latitudes and/or have more resources to cope with climate change.
Natural experiments indicate that family planning programs are effective in helping reduce fertility, and that they are highly pro-poor in their impact. While the rest of the world wrestles with the complexities of reducing emissions, the poorest countries will gain much from simple programs to lower fertility.
A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use
changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible
land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century. Our
model predicts that indirect land use will be responsible for substantially more carbon loss (up to twice as much) than direct
land use; however, because of predicted increases in fertilizer use, nitrous oxide emissions will be more important than carbon
losses themselves in terms of warming potential. A global greenhouse gas emissions policy that protects forests and encourages
best practices for nitrogen fertilizer use can dramatically reduce emissions associated with biofuels production.
This expanded and revised sixth edition of The Geography of Transport Systems provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the field with a broad overview of its concepts, methods, and areas of application. It explores the spatial aspects of transportation and focuses on how the mobility of passengers and freight is linked with geography.
The book is divided into ten chapters, each covering a specific conceptual dimension, including networks, modes, terminals, freight transportation, urban transportation, and environmental impacts, and updated with the latest information available. The sixth edition offers new and updated material on information technologies and mobility, e-commerce, transport and the economy, mobility and society, supply chains, security, pandemics, energy and the environment, and climate change. With over 140 updated figures and maps, The Geography of Transport Systems presents transportation systems at different scales ranging from global to local.
This volume is an essential resource for undergraduates studying transportation, as well as those interested in economic and urban geography, transport planning and engineering. A companion website, which contains additional material such as photographs, maps, figures, and PowerPoint presentations, has been developed for the book and can be found here: https://transportgeography.org/
At Glasgow’s COP26 summit, countries will argue for more money to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. At Glasgow’s COP26 summit, countries will argue for more money to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change.
This paper employs an empirically estimated model to study the equilibrium effects of an increase in the US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I identify and model heterogeneity across firms and find that the profit impacts of CAFE fall almost entirely on domestic producers. The welfare analyses consider the simultaneous household decision of vehicle and miles traveled, allowing direct comparison with a gasoline tax. Finally, I consider dynamic impacts in the used car market. I find these comprise nearly half the gross welfare cost of CAFE and fall disproportionately on low-income households. Contrary to previous results, the overall welfare costs are regressive.
This paper puts trade's benefi
ts and environmental costs on the same theoretical and empirical footing in order to provide a more complete measure of trade's welfare effects. The paper describes a model of trade and the environment, compiles new data on the CO2 emissions from shipping, and estimates key parameters using panel data regressions. Results show that international trade's bene
fits exceed international trade's environmental costs by two orders of magnitude. While proposed regional or global carbon taxes on the CO2 emissions from transporting goods would increase global welfare and increase the implementing region's GDP, they would also harm poor countries.
Recently, an active debate has emerged around greenhouse gas emissions due to indirect land use change (iLUC) of expanding agricultural areas dedicated to biofuel production. In this paper we provide a detailed analysis of the iLUC effect, and further address the issues of deforestation, irrigation water use, and crop price increases due to expanding biofuel acreage. We use GLOBIOM – an economic partial equilibrium model of the global forest, agriculture, and biomass sectors with a bottom-up representation of agricultural and forestry management practices. The results indicate that second generation biofuel production fed by wood from sustainably managed existing forests would lead to a negative iLUC factor, meaning that overall emissions are 27% lower compared to the “No biofuel” scenario by 2030. The iLUC factor of first generation biofuels global expansion is generally positive, requiring some 25 years to be paid back by the GHG savings from the substitution of biofuels for conventional fuels. Second generation biofuels perform better also with respect to the other investigated criteria; on the condition that they are not sourced from dedicated plantations directly competing for agricultural land. If so, then efficient first generation systems are preferable. Since no clear technology champion for all situations exists, we would recommend targeting policy instruments directly at the positive and negative effects of biofuel production rather than at the production itself.
Marginal agricultural land is estimated for biofuel production in Africa, China, Europe, India, South America, and the continental United States, which have major agricultural production capacities. These countries/regions can have 320-702 million hectares of land available if only abandoned and degraded cropland and mixed crop and vegetation land, which are usually of low quality, are accounted. If grassland, savanna, and shrubland with marginal productivity are considered for planting low-input high-diversity (LIHD) mixtures of native perennials as energy crops, the total land availability can increase from 1107-1411 million hectares, depending on if the pasture land is discounted. Planting the second generation of biofuel feedstocks on abandoned and degraded cropland and LIHD perennials on grassland with marginal productivity may fulfill 26-55% of the current world liquid fuel consumption, without affecting the use of land with regular productivity for conventional crops and without affecting the current pasture land. Under the various land use scenarios, Africa may have more than one-third, and Africa and Brazil, together, may have more than half of the total land available for biofuel production. These estimations are based on physical conditions such as soil productivity, land slope, and climate.
Truck Program; 50% Brake Thermal Efficiency
- Hunt Allcott
- Allan Collard-Wexler
- Stephen D O'connell
Confronting the Environ
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- Benoit Laplante
- Hua Wang
- David Wheeler
Can Distribution Grid Infrastructure
- Elmallah
- Anna M Salma
- Duncan Brockway
- Callaway
tions under Low Carbon Fuel Standards?
- Stephen P Holland
- T Erin
- Nicholas Z Mansur
- Andrew J Muller
- Yates
Reducing Petroleum Consumption from Transportation
Strategies and Instruments for Low-Carbon Urban
- Kazuki Nakamura
- Yoshitsugu Hayashi
NBER Working Paper 23386
- James Archsmith
- Erich Muehlegger
- David S Rapson
Greenhouse Gas Reduc
- Energy
- Holland
- P Stephen
- Jonathan E Hughes
- Christopher R Knittel
Europe's Appetite for LNG Leaves Developing Nations
- Shotaro Tani
- Benjamin Parkin
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Poor Countries: A Lost Battle?
- Qinyu Qiao
- Fuquan Zhao
- Zongwei Liu
- Xin He
- Han Hao
Alternative Fuels Data Center Fuel Properties Comparison
- Summary Of Results
International Energy Agency (IEA). 2022d. How Competitive is Biofuel Production in Brazil and the United
- Agency
Princeton's Net-Zero America Study
- Gaps
- Pascale
- Jesse D Andrew
- Emily Jenkins
- Leslie
Guterres Urges Developed Countries to Deliver on Climate Pledge for Vulnerable
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For China's Auto Market
- Daisuke Wakabayashi
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Trade Costs, CO2, and the Environment
- Joseph S Shapiro