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DOI 10.51582/interconf.19-20.07.2023.001
Global climate change and risk
analysis of tourist destinations in the
regions of Georgia
Azmaiparashvili Maia1,
Goderdzishvili Ia2
1 Doctor of Ecology, Associate Professor;
Gori State University; Republic of Georgia
European University; Republic of Georgia
2 Academic Doctor of Business Administration, Associate Professor;
Technical University of Georgia; Republic of Georgia
European University; Republic of Georgia
Abstract.
Tourism is considered the largest industry in the world, and the environment is central to
its development. Climate change has a significant impact on tourism destinations. The
relevance, methodological and practical importance of the problems posed in the article,
the presence of unresolved issues led to the selection of the research topic, the
determination of the research goal and tasks. The subject of our research is climate change
risk assessment on the tourist regions of Georgia. The environment is the basis of the
tourist product, therefore the profitability of tourism depends on the attractiveness of
tourist destinations. Due to the close relationship between environment and climate, tourism
is considered a climate-sensitive economic sector. Climate change is likely to lead to a
shift in destination. There is a need to reduce the risks from the impacts already caused
by climate change.
Keywords:
Tourism
Climate change
Destinations
Regions
Analysis
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Introduction. Climate change is one of the most important
challenges for sustainable development with long-term
consequences. The problem of mankind, which has a long
history, its roots appear in the 70s of the 19th century and
is associated with the name of climatologist V. Kiopen (1873).
who at that time determined a 100C fold drop in temperature
for the whole earth. V. Willett (1950) estimated the trend of
planetary temperature change for the period 1880-1930, and
obtained an increase of 0.50C in the average planetary
temperature. and increasing the temperature of the winter
months by 100C M. Budiko (1971) determined that warming began
at the end of the 19th century, which reached a weak maximum
at the end of the same century.
The current phenomenon of climate change has become a
reference since the 70s of the last century, when the trend
of a sharp increase in the global average annual temperature
and frequent climatic disasters were noticed. Today, it is
already scientifically proven that climate change is really
happening on a global scale and is manifested in the rise of
the average temperature and, in connection with it, in the
frequency of precipitation, which is reflected in many,
extremely negative ways in the form of extreme events.
It should be noted that during the last 150 years, climate
change has been occurring at a rapid pace due to the
unprecedented rapid accumulation of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere. Rapid climate change leaves
us with little time to prepare for the expected change and
mitigate its negative impacts.
Today, the field of tourism is considered the largest
industry in the world, and the environment occupies a central
place in its development. As more attention will be paid to
the environment in the future, priorities that are
economically efficient but ecologically undesirable will
remain unfulfilled. The environment is the basis of the
tourism product, so the profitability of tourism depends on
the attractiveness of the tourist destinations that tourists
want to see.
Aim of research. The aim of the paper is to analyze the
risks related to climate change, which is based on the
assessment of emerging problems at regional tourist
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destinations.
Methodology. Qualitative research methods, analysis of
quality textual information, processing of theoretical
material of a scientific nature, logical, economic analysis
- which means processing of analytical material presented in
open sources, evaluation of tourist places. A wide range of
practical and theoretical material, special and fundamental
works, as well as a global network were used in the research
process. Conclusion and recommendations are based on
qualitative analysis.
Literature review. The study of the bibliographic
material surrounding the issue we studied reveals that there
are separate works on climate change in the field of tourism,
by Georgian and foreign researchers: E. Elizbarashvili,
S. Khorava, L. Kartvelishvili, L. Kochlamazashvili,
Ts. Davituliani, the problem of the impact of climate change
on the tourist regions of Georgia is discussed from an
interesting point of view. Foreign researchers: Jesse
Gourevitch, Carolyn Kousky, KouskyYanjun, Olufemi Adedeji,
Okocha Reuben, Piers M. Forster, Christopher
J.Smith, Tristram Walsh, F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias
Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett,
Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina Schuckmann,
I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles
Allen, Robbie, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, A. Broersma, Lijing
Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M.
Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Ishii, Stuart
Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher
Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali
Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, etc.
Discussion and Results. Tackling climate change is one of
the goals of sustainable development and an important priority
of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). That is why
UNDP's Rapid Development Laboratory has chosen the study of
issues related to climate change and the search for solutions
as one of its leading areas of activity. According to the
UNDP research, the awareness of the population of Georgia
regarding climate change is quite high, 97% of respondents
have heard about climate change, and 91% believe that climate
change is a real and dangerous process. The majority of
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respondents (up to 60%) think that climate change is a more
important challenge than international terrorism or armed
conflicts [1].
Climate change can have a significant impact on tourism
activity by changing one of its important resources – the
natural environment. For example, changes in precipitation
can lead to floods or droughts (leading to desertification,
or water scarcity); Increasing seawater temperatures can
damage coral ecosystems; Storm surges can cause shore erosion
and excess salinity can affect coastal ecosystems. Tourism is
an active user of resources such as water, energy, food, rich
biodiversity and pristine natural areas. Tourism in
mountainous regions is affected by changes in snowfall
conditions, and tourist sites in flood and drought areas are
not protected from environmental impacts. Climate change also
affects health, the safety of tourists and local communities
[2].
The study-analysis of the results of global climate change
in Georgia has revealed significant changes in climatic
parameters (average annual, maximum and minimum temperatures,
average annual rainfall totals and rainfall regime) from the
beginning of the 20th century to the present day. Against the
general background of modern global warming, the temperature
is increasing in eastern Georgia, while it is decreasing
mainly in the west. The highest rates of average annual
temperature increase are observed in the regions, on the
Kartli and Kakheti ridges. The highest rate of temperature
increase in these areas exceeds 0.0050. There are separate
warming centers on the Black Sea coast [3].
As the head of the Adventure Tourism Association, Johnny
Kapanadze notes, “The most striking thing is the rapid melting
of glaciers. There is a high risk of river flooding. Frequent
occurrences of forest fires are also important and noteworthy.
There are fewer water resources, which significantly affects
adventure tourism. The same in the Caucasus, we have quite
big problems. Earlier, when we used to get drinking water
from one or the other source, now these sources have dried
up. It is a big problem mainly in August and September. High
temperatures are also difficult to bear for adventure tourism.
It's safe to say that many people are already wondering if
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it's worth going and traveling in light of climate change.
Often, nature is no longer so attractive. Such problems have
arisen that would have been less 15-20 years ago. The natural
geographical attraction is slowly losing its charm. For
example, the natural monuments of Samegrelo. Water levels in
waterfalls and canyons reach historic lows. Naturally, this
will have a negative impact on Georgian tourism" [4].
Sea coasts everywhere, one can say all over the world,
show special sensitivity to the harmful effects of climate
change, and the Black Sea coast of Georgia is no exception in
this respect. Here, along the entire length of the coastline,
the sea level is falling compared to the land, storms are
becoming more frequent and stronger, river discharges are
increasing in the sea, and sea surface temperatures are
changing over the years. The situation of the river is
particularly acute. in Delta of Rion, St. near Poti, where we
have a double problem, on the one hand, the invasion of the
sea and the seizure of land, and, on the other hand, the
invasion of the river into the sea and the introduction of
debris into the sea. [5]. The Black Sea coastal zone is
currently the most vulnerable ecosystem in Georgia to climate
change, and modeled projections paint an even more dire
picture by 2100.
The humid subtropical climate of the coastal zone is
formed mainly as a result of the interaction of humid air
masses invading from the Black Sea with the southern slopes
of the Caucasus and the western slopes of the Meskheti ridge.
The mode of air movement has a significant influence on the
local circulation, which is formed by uneven heating of land
and sea. Such a circulation is created by breezes, monsoons
(with a change characteristic of the Black Sea) and mountain-
valley winds. (as a result of uneven heating and cooling of
sea and land, thermal winds-breezes and mountain-bar winds
arise). The activation of sea breezes begins at the end of
April and ends at the end of August. At an altitude of 700-
800 m, sea breezes are observed only in the middle of summer.
It should be noted that currently high buildings in Batumi
are an obstacle to the action of breezes [6].
The Black Sea strip is of special importance for the
economy of the country, the cities of Batumi, Poti and Sukhumi
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with their ports, Supsi and Kulev marine oil terminals, Batumi
airport and many other settlements are located here, which
form the core of the economic and tourist-recreational economy
of the country. In this strip, there is a highly developed
coastal infrastructure with a frequent network of railways
and roads, almost 60% of which follow the coast. Changes in
marine ecosystem parameters caused by climate change will
seriously affect the infrastructure as well.
Against the background of the current global warming,
four main threats have been identified for the Black Sea
ecosystem: an increase in the rate of eustasy (sea level rise
relative to the land); increase in intensity and frequency of
storm surges (storms), and change in the seasons of
occurrence; Activation of sedimentation in deltas of
glacially fed rivers (threats only the Rion delta and its
middle) and changing the thermal characteristics of the sea.
In addition to these four indicators directly related to the
marine ecosystem, the change in air temperature and the
increase in the probability of heat waves during the tourist
season are important here.
There are 4 main categories of climate change impacts,
which in turn affect the competitiveness and status of tourist
destinations. 1. Direct climate impacts Climate is a key
resource for tourism as it determines a number of tourism
activities in destinations. Climate also plays a leading role
in the seasonality of tourism demand and significantly
determines the volume of operating costs, including those
such as heating and cooling, food and water supplies, and
insurance costs. 2. Indirect impact on environmental changes.
As environmental sustainability is a critical resource for
tourism, climate-induced environmental changes will have a
wide-ranging impact on tourism, both internationally and
regionally. Changes in water availability, loss of
biodiversity, landscape In the loss of aesthetics, changes in
agricultural production, increasing natural hazards, coastal
erosion and floods, will affect tourism in different ways.
3. Policy to mitigate the impact on tourist mobility. National
and international policies related to the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions are also reflected in the movement
of tourist flows. This will lead to an increase in transport
costs and may contribute to a change in attitudes towards the
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environment, forcing tourists to change their travel
patterns. 4. Indirect impact of social changes. Climate change
threatens the country's future economic growth and political
stability [7].
The Government of Georgia has developed a 2030 climate
change strategy. Achieving the 13th goal of sustainable
development involves the integration of measures against
climate change into national policies, strategies and plans.
The measures outlined in the Climate Change Action Plan
directly contribute to mainstreaming climate change issues
into national policy documents. The link between climate
change measures and other areas of development is clearly
presented in the sectoral mitigation measures already
assessed.
The long-term vision of the Climate Strategy and Action
Plan is to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by 35%
compared to 1990 levels for all major sectors of the economy
relevant to climate change mitigation by 2030. This vision
derives from the updated Nationally Determined Contribution
(NDC) document prepared by Georgia to be submitted to the
Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2021. [8].
Conclusion and recommendations. In order for the country
not to face a disaster every time it rains, it is necessary
to have a proper environmental policy. Due to climate change,
the humidity has increased, in one day one place can receive
a whole year's worth of precipitation, then it can be followed
by a long drought, which has a negative effect on the
environment. In addition, the temperature difference between
day and night is quite large, which also has a negative effect
on nature, although there are also external causes, i.e. human
factors. Deforestation has a particularly severe impact. In
such a situation, it is necessary to take preliminary
measures. Monitoring should be carried out every year to
determine how much water can be carried by this or that river,
whether the ravines are running out, etc. According to the
observation materials of experts, it is confirmed that the
sea level on the coast of Adjara has increased significantly
in recent years. In order to maintain the stability of the
sea shores, it is necessary to know, monitor and evaluate the
hydrological regime of the Black Sea in order to predict the
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development of the coastal zone.
Regardless of the magnitude of the impacts caused by
climate change, all businesses and destinations involved in
tourism will need to adapt to climate change in order to
minimize its associated risks and take advantage of new
opportunities for economic, social and environmental
sustainability. Due to the close connection between
environment and climate, tourism is considered a climate-
sensitive economic sector. Climate change is likely to lead
to regional shifts in destinations and tourists, requiring
adaptation by all actors in the tourism industry. Tourism
will not be able to cope with the challenges of climate change
on its own, but it can act within the framework of the
international agenda for sustainable development.
It is necessary to stop the process of global warming in
order to prevent a further increase in temperature, and on
the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the risks arising
from the impacts already caused by climate change. To solve
this phenomenon, the following approaches are prioritized: In
the direction of mitigation, priority is given to: increasing
energy efficiency, expanding renewable energy production (at
the expense of solar, wind, geothermal, etc. energy),
encouraging fuel-efficient transport, protecting and
expanding forest cover, climate goals Encouraging customized
innovative technologies and services. In the direction of
adaptation, priority is given to: implementing measures to
reduce losses and damages caused by extreme weather,
introducing resource-saving (e.g. water and soil)
technologies and approaches, studying the impact of climate
change on mountain ecosystems, glaciers, mountain economies
and the living standards of the population in order to better
manage these systems, adaptation measures Implementation for
the most vulnerable winter (mountainous) and summer (coastal)
resorts, conservation of endemic, red-listed species and
local varieties important for food and agriculture and
protection of forest cover [9].
The country's environmental protection policy should be
aimed at a long-term period in order to ensure the sustainable
development of tourism, which many, especially developing
countries, ignore for financial gain. In some tourist areas,
there are practically no nature protection services and
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normative acts are weak. For the sustainable development of
tourism, it is necessary to maintain an ecologically clean
environment and take into account the climatic conditions of
the given region. Despite the efforts of the world community,
it has not yet been possible to stabilize the concentration
of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere at a safe level.
Nor did the commitments made by the countries that joined the
Framework Convention on Climate Change to the Convention and
later to the Kyoto Protocol have not brought the desired
results. Moreover, on a global scale, the level of greenhouse
gas emissions has increased since the adoption of the
Convention, especially in the last decade.
Due to the global nature of the climate change phenomenon,
it is necessary to unite the efforts of mankind to stop it.
Climate change is an existential challenge facing all of
humanity and our plans for the future.
Solving the problem of climate change requires two
parallel approaches - on the one hand, it is necessary to
stop the global warming process in order to prevent further
increase in temperature, and on the other hand, it is
necessary to reduce or completely neutralize the risks arising
from the effects already caused by climate change.
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[2] Kartvelishvili, L., Kochlamazashvili L., (2015). Tourism and Climate,
Georgian Economy.
[3] Elizbarashvili, E., (2007). Climatic resources of Georgia, Tbilisi.
[4] Vachnadze M., (2022). What problems does climate change pose to
tourism? https://business-partner.ge
[5] Second national report of Georgia, (2018). Tbilisi.
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