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The Economics of Electric Vehicles
... In a related study, Xing et al. (2021) consider substitution patterns using U.S. survey data on new vehicle purchases and conclude that the environmental effectiveness of current support schemes for EVs is limited, as EVs typically substitute for relatively low-polluting vehicles. Rapson and Muehlegger (2023) and Linn (2022) stress the low cost-effectiveness of uniform purchase subsidies, due to the inability to exclude infra-marginal consumers. Yet Roberson and Helveston (2022) show that purchase rebates may be more effective with respect to generating demand for EVs than tax incentives, a point echoed by Cerruti et al. (2024). ...
... The implied subsidy per induced registration is higher than the nominal subsidy per vehicle of the subsidy scheme: the subsidy per additional registration amounts to around 14,000 euro for BEVs and 16,500 euro for PHEVs. These implied subsidies per induced registration are in line with the calculation by Rapson and Muehlegger (2023) for the case of medium demand elasticity and non-Tesla BEVs. ...
... 24 The CO 2 intensity of the power grid is a crucial parameter in this calculation. In contrast to Rapson and Muehlegger (2023), we use average CO 2 intensity instead of marginal CO 2 intensity. Rapson and Muehlegger (2023) argue that "EV load becomes part of the baseline" as the fleet grows, so that average CO 2 intensity might capture BEV emissions better in the long-term. ...
We evaluate German purchase subsidies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) using data on new vehicle registrations in Germany during 2015-2022. We account for confounding time trends and interacting EU-level standards using neighboring countries as a control group. We find that 40% of BEV and 25% of PHEV registrations were subsidy-induced. The program had strong distributional effects, with greater uptake in wealthier and greener counties. We estimate implied abatement costs of 870 euro per ton of for BEVs and 2,470 euro for PHEVs, suggesting that policy makers should re-balance support schemes away from PHEVs.
... The global EV market size is a measure of the total sales and revenue generated from the sale of EVs across the world. It encompasses various segments, including battery EVs (BEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), and hybrid EVs (HEVs) [26]. The market size is determined by factors such as the number of units sold, the average selling price of EVs, the total value of EV-related services, and the investment in EV infrastructure. ...
... The supply chain of EVs has certain distinguishing factors due to its current status in the product life cycle. EVs have just passed the introduction phase and are growing rapidly [26,28,34]. Most ICE vehicle supply chain elements can adapt to support the EV supply chain, but around 25% of the EV supply chain will need to be rebuilt [35]. ...
... The interaction between these market characteristics and technological availability shapes the contours of the EV market [26,29,33,51]. For instance, markets with high technological innovation but limited charging infrastructure might focus on hybrid models or advanced battery technology that offers longer ranges. ...
The automotive industry is evolving due to the increasing adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs). This transition has impacted automotive vehicles and led to profound changes in the supply chain ecosystem. Through a comprehensive review of the available literature and industry reports, this research investigates the automotive industry’s transition towards EVs and subsequent supply chain transformation, focusing on the changing roles of automotive suppliers. In this paper, we assess these transformations from economic, environmental, and strategic viewpoints. We examine the impact of these changes on supplier relationships, supplier OEM collaboration, and new entrants’ potential for disruption, as well as propose strategies for suppliers to effectively navigate this transformation, ensuring competitiveness in the evolving EV landscape. Finally, we discuss opportunities and challenges in EV supply chain research.
... To achieve the aim of minimizing environmental pollution, green logistics, which can reduce carbon emissions and energy consumption, has been proposed in the transportation process [1,2]. Recently, researchers found that the widespread adoption of electric vehicles in logistics is an effective way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and consumption of resources compared with the adoption of conventional fuel vehicles [3][4][5]. Therefore, using electric vehicles effectively is a key to realizing green logistics. ...
... The fleet is represented as (conventional vehicles, electric vehicles). For example, a fleet with 3 conventional vehicles and 2 electric vehicles is denoted as (3,2). ...
With the gradual introduction of electric vehicles, logistics systems currently rely primarily on mixed fleets of electric and conventional vehicles to carry out distribution tasks. Given the differences in pollution emissions between electric and traditional vehicles, as well as the additional consideration of charging routes for electric vehicles, a reasonable formation of the two types of vehicles will effectively reduce carbon emissions during distribution and enhance the economic benefits of the logistics system. This article establishes a bi-objective model aimed at minimizing carbon emissions and travel costs while maximizing customer satisfaction. A diversity-based niche genetic algorithm is proposed to better explore distribution schemes using different kinds of mixed fleets. Firstly, a partial variable-length coding method is introduced to facilitate chromosome generation in the model. Secondly, a diversity evaluation based on entropy is proposed to search for various distribution schemes. Finally, niche elitism and niche tournament selection are proposed, and the crossover and mutation operators are correspondingly improved for the algorithm. The experiments suggest that the bi-objective model is well-established, demonstrating the anticipated conflict between the two objectives. Additionally, the diversity-based niche genetic algorithm is shown to be effective in achieving a wider variety of distribution schemes.
... In view of the drastic reduction of battery costs over the past decade, the National Academies (2021) of the USA [16] project that the period 2025-2035 can '… bring the most fundamental transformation in the 100-plus year history of the automobile' as the purchase costs of BEVs are likely to reach parity with those of ICE vehicles. Other related costs that a first-time owner of an EV may face are the cost of installing a charger and the potential cost of switching electricity tariffs [17]. ...
... In terms of operational costs, where EVs have a definite advantage, savings depend heavily on electricity and fuel prices, leading to significant variations across locations and over time. Rapson et al. [17] mention that the top marginal retail electricity price can range from 10.5 to 37.0 € cents per kWh even within the municipality of Sacramento, while gasoline prices vary substantially over time (due to wide fluctuations in the price of crude oil) and across locations (due to state-level regulations, excise taxes and proximity to refining capacity). Savings, albeit generally low, also result from maintenance costs due to the much fewer moving parts of an electric motor in comparison to an ICE. ...
Electric mobility is progressing at varied paces for different vehicle segments, and in many countries, significant barriers exist, which is reflected in the very low share of electricity in final energy consumption. The EU-funded SOLUTIONSplus project, which promotes sustainable urban transport through electric mobility, demonstrated e-three-wheelers in Dar es Salam and Kathmandu, remodelled Safa tempos in Kathmandu, e-moto taxis in Kigali, e-mopeds in Hanoi, and bus conversion in Kathmandu. These prototypes, developed, produced and/or assembled by local firms, were specifically designed to replace fossil fuel-powered two-wheelers, three-wheelers and buses, reflecting local conditions and aims. The assessment of demonstrations uses financial cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and key sustainability indicators based on local stakeholders’ priorities. All demonstration vehicles turned out profitable in cases where they replaced an existing ICE vehicle. The upfront cost of electric vehicles is high. However, the total cost of operations of electric vehicles has shown that they are more profitable in the long run. and also have significant social, environmental and climate benefits. The CO2 reduction is substantial for all EVs since they replace ICE vehicles, however, these can increase further if electricity grids can be decarbonised. Since EVs have no tailpipe emissions of (NOX, PM) the reductions of local emissions are 100%; however, improvements in emission standards for ICE vehicles will reduce the advantage of EVs in future. EVs in themselves cannot lead to improvements in accessibility, affordability and travel time savings. However, when they are used to expand/complement public transport, they can improve accessibility (Dar es Salam) and deliver time-savings (Hanoi).
... Economic studies have delved into the factors influencing consumer adoption of electric vehicles, highlighting the significance of financial incentives, environmental awareness, and technological perceptions. For instance, Rapson and Muehlegger (2023) analyze how purchase subsidies and tax rebates reduce the effective price of EVs, thereby enhancing their attractiveness to consumers [2]. They emphasize that the optimal design of such incentives should consider regional variations in consumer behavior and environmental benefits to maximize policy effectiveness. ...
... Economic studies have delved into the factors influencing consumer adoption of electric vehicles, highlighting the significance of financial incentives, environmental awareness, and technological perceptions. For instance, Rapson and Muehlegger (2023) analyze how purchase subsidies and tax rebates reduce the effective price of EVs, thereby enhancing their attractiveness to consumers [2]. They emphasize that the optimal design of such incentives should consider regional variations in consumer behavior and environmental benefits to maximize policy effectiveness. ...
This article examines the rise and recent decline of Tesla in the U.S. electric vehicle market. Using qualitative, semi-quantitative, and statistical methods, the article traces how Tesla acquired a first-mover advantage and how second movers, both established automakers and start-ups, responded to Tesla’s rise. The recent decline in Tesla’s share of the U.S. electric vehicle market is linked to several factors: the proliferation of electric vehicle offerings from competitors, changes in public policy, and controversial decisions by Tesla and its CEO. The article concludes with a discussion of promising future strategies for both Tesla and its competitors.
... Challenges to the broad adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) include the need for large investments in the infrastructure necessary for charging them, worries about the sustainability of resources and the environmental impact of battery manufacture, and customer concerns about cost, range, and charging time. Together, academics, industry stakeholders, and policymakers need to overcome these obstacles and encourage the wider use of electric vehicles (Rapson & Muehlegger, 2023). ...
... The implementation of electric vehicles (EVs) is confronted with barriers in the areas of policy and regulation, consumer adoption, and infrastructure development. To surmount these issues, policymakers must collaborate with industry stakeholders, the public, and industry players (Carlsson & Johansson-Stenman, 2003;Rapson & Muehlegger, 2023). ...
Transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) can significantly reduce environmental and social impacts, improve air quality, and enhance social equity, with higher energy efficiency when integrated with renewable sources. Electric vehicles significantly improve urban air quality by reducing pollutants, reducing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and enhancing the quality of life in urban areas through quieter operation. Electric vehicles (EVs) are gaining popularity due to their social benefits, such as improved public health, economic opportunities, and potential to address social equity issues. The chapter explores the necessity of charging infrastructure, sustainable battery materials, and consumer adoption barriers for transitioning to a sustainable transportation system, suggesting potential solutions through policies and innovative technologies. The chapter highlights the transformative impact of electric vehicles on environmental sustainability and social equity, suggesting that leveraging their advantages can lead to a cleaner, healthier, and more equitable future.
... The electrification business unit will be focused on advancing transmission and distribution technologies [62]. The AI infrastructure unit aims to develop the entire infrastructure crucial for the development of AI solutions, including data center storage and networking equipment [63]. ...
This article explores the environmental implications of electrification and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, emphasizing the importance of aligning technological development with climate goals. There is a lack of academic literature that explains and analyses such issues. Section I assesses the climate efficacy of promoting electric vehicles (EVs) and electric heating in regions where electricity is primarily coal-based. While electrification offers substantial climate benefits when powered by clean energy, lifecycle analyses reveal that EVs in coal-reliant grids may emit more greenhouse gases than internal combustion engine vehicles. Similarly, the climate performance of electric heat pumps depends on the carbon intensity of electricity sources. The section advocates for integrated policies that simultaneously promote electrification and grid decarbonization, enhancing emissions reductions and public health while mitigating the negative impacts of increased demand on polluting power plants. Section II uses Saudi Arabia as a case study and examines the environmental impact of AI data centers in the context of Saudi Arabia's energy and climate policies. It highlights the energy and water intensity of AI infrastructure and its potential to strain environmental resources. To align AI development with national sustainability goals, the article recommends policies such as siting data centers near renewable energy sources, enforcing environmental efficiency standards, fostering R&D partnerships, mandating sustainability reporting, and expanding power purchase agreements and demand response participation. These measures aim to ensure responsible AI growth within climate-aligned frameworks. The implications of this study are that electrification and AI infrastructure can significantly reduce emissions and improve efficiency if powered by clean energy, but they also risk increasing environmental strain unless technological growth is carefully aligned with climate and sustainability goals.
... Traditional demand response (DR) approaches primarily depend on inflexible, predetermined load-shifting strategies designed for large industrial or commercial users, often managed through centralized control by energy providers [2]. However, there is a mismatch between the dynamic, real-time characteristics of EV charging demands and the static, rigid framework of traditional DR approaches, underscoring the need for more intelligent, adaptive, and real-time DR strategies [3][4][5] to ...
Electric vehicles (EVs) play a crucial role in achieving sustainability goals, mitigating energy crises, and reducing air pollution. However, their rapid adoption poses significant challenges to the power grid, particularly during peak charging periods, necessitating advanced load management strategies. This study introduces an artificial intelligence (AI)-integrated optimal charging framework designed to facilitate fast charging and mitigate grid stress by smoothing the “duck curve”. Data from Caltech’s Adaptive Charging Network (ACN) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) site was collected and categorized into day and night patterns to predict charging duration based on key features, including start charging time and energy requested. The AI-driven charging strategy developed optimizes energy management, reduces peak loads, and alleviates grid strain. Additionally, the study evaluates the impact of integrating 1.5 million, 3 million, and 5 million EVs under various AI-based charging strategies, demonstrating the framework’s effectiveness in managing large-scale EV adoption. The peak power consumption reaches around 22,000 MW without EVs, 25,000 MW for 1.5 million EVs, 28,000 MW for 3 million EVs, and 35,000 MW for 5 million EVs without any charging strategy. By implementing an AI-driven optimal charging optimization strategy that considers both early charging and duck curve smoothing, the peak demand is reduced by approximately 16% for 1.5 million EVs, 21.43% for 3 million EVs, and 34.29% for 5 million EVs.
... https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01698-1 ICEV transmission replacement 11 . If battery and replacement costs do not fall quickly enough, owners may choose to prematurely write off their BEVs, which could skew the comparison of BEV longevity against ICE vehicles. ...
Electric vehicles are increasingly being adopted in Great Britain and other parts of the world, driven by the perception that they offer a cost-effective alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles while reducing emissions. However, a key element that underpins this perception is the longevity of electric vehicles, which remains relatively under researched. Here we show that although early battery electric vehicles (BEVs) exhibited lower reliability than internal combustion engine vehicles, rapid technological advancements have allowed newer BEVs to achieve comparable lifespans, even under more intensive use. Longevity is also found to be impacted by engine size, location and make of vehicle. We provide parameter estimates for life mileage that can be used to update life cycle assessment and total cost of ownership studies of different vehicle powertrains. Our results also shed light on BEV diffusion patterns, fleet replacement strategies and end-of-life treatment planning, including the increasingly important debate around BEV battery recycling and second-life options.
... This research investigates the factors influencing Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption in Indonesia, focusing on consumer attitudes, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norms. The study builds on previous research, such as that by the ASEAN Centre for Energy (2018) and Rapson et al. (2023), which highlight the economic and environmental benefits of BEVs. Despite these benefits, BEV adoption remains low in Indonesia, with only a small fraction of vehicles being electric, far below the government's 2030 targets. ...
This research employs a quantitative design to investigate factors influencing Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption intentions among Indonesians, using the framework developed by Elena Higueras-Castillo et al. (2021). By utilizing IBM SPSS, the study examines psychological and social factors such as attitudes towards BEVs, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention to use BEVs. Multiple hypotheses are tested using multiple regression analysis. Survey responses from 145 participants are analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, multiple regression, and factor analysis to identify patterns and relationships. The study ensures validity and reliability through pre-testing the questionnaire and adhering to ethical guidelines. Statistical analyses reveal that attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control significantly influence residents' readiness to adopt BEVs. The findings fill a knowledge gap in BEV adoption dynamics within Indonesia, offering insights for policymakers, urban planners, and other stakeholders. Based on the results, recommendations are made for policy interventions, infrastructure investments, and public awareness campaigns to accelerate the transition towards electric mobility. These insights can be leveraged to effectively market BEVs to new potential consumers by highlighting the positive attitudes, social norms, and perceived control factors that drive adoption.
... Electric vehicles provide long-term savings for individual users with low operating and maintenance costs, while contributing to local economies by encouraging the development of charging infrastructure with innovative technologies. The widespread adoption of electric vehicles will have positive economic impacts for the vehicle sector, the energy sector and users [8]. ...
The widespread use of electric vehicles contributes significantly to environmental sustainability by reducing the use of fossil fuels. However, the increasing number of electric vehicles and the intense charging demand may cause negative impacts such as overloading, voltage fluctuations and energy supply-demand imbalances in electricity grids. In this paper, artificial intelligence-based methods applied for the management of the negative impacts of electric vehicles on the grid are discussed comprehensively and artificial intelligence approaches in the literature used to manage electric vehicle charging load are analysed. Among these approaches, energy management strategies based on charging demand forecasting, dynamic pricing, routing, charging scheduling and smart grid integration are analysed in detail. This paper summarises the latest innovative AI-based solutions developed to manage the charging load of electric vehicles, improve grid stability, increase charging service price prediction accuracies, maximise grid and user satisfaction, ensure load balance, reduce charging and operating costs, reduce energy consumption and optimise power flow. This paper contains comprehensive and qualified information about the bilateral (grid and user perspective) management algorithms of the charging load of electric vehicles.
... Purchase price is frequently mentioned as a barrier to PEV adoption (10, 15,41,45), and two studies from 2016 and 2017 found this to be the largest barrier (22,25). While lower operating costs can result in cost savings over the lifetime of the vehicle, that is not always the case in instances of lower gasoline and higher electricity prices (46,47). Consumers may also ignore any potential savings and focus on upfront costs (18,41), doubt longer term savings (10), lack the expertise needed to calculate the total cost of ownership savings (16), or be unaware of vehicle economy or fuel expenditures (48). ...
Most net-zero emissions targets require electrification of the entire light-duty vehicle fleet, and before that the electrification of all new vehicle sales. In this paper, we review literature on demand-side issues related to achieving 100% zero-emissions vehicle sales, focusing on plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). We discuss potential demand-side challenges to increasing PEV sales and related research gaps, including consumer factors (perceptions, knowledge, and consumer characterises), demand-focused policy (incentives), infrastructure, and energy prices. While global PEV sales have substantially increased in recent years, several challenges remain: some demographic groups are currently underrepresented among PEV buyers (e.g. renters, lower income buyers), some car drivers are resistant to PEVs, incentives are influential but have predominantly benefited higher-income new-car buyers and are being phased out, infrastructure is not sufficiently developed or equally distributed, infrastructure is not user friendly, and some households lack charging access. Some issues we identify may be related to the early stage of the PEV market, though will need to be addressed to reach higher PEV sales and PEV fleet shares. Finally, we outline areas where more research is needed to understand and guide the PEV transition.
... Broader systemic concerns have been emphasized, like the possible strain that an increase in electric vehicles could impose on current electrical networks, hence resulting in challenges related to grid stability and capacity (Pevec et al., 2020;Sanguesa et al., 2021). Furthermore, the higher upfront cost of EVs remains a significant deterrent for many consumers, primarily attributed to the expensive battery technology used in EVs (Rapson & Muehlegger, 2023). ...
Plain Language Summary
Exploring the Digital Discourse on Electric Vehicles: An Examination of Social Media Engagement Sentiment for Turkey
Adopting electric cars (EVs) is key to making transportation systems more environmentally friendly. Policymakers, industry players, and researchers need to know how the public feels and how involved they are with electric vehicles (EVs) to successfully deal with challenges and opportunities in the EV market. This study looked at how people felt about EVs and how they interacted with each other on social media sites. One thousand posts from Facebook, Instagram, and X were looked at to make a story that shows how people feel about EVs and what the future holds for this new technology. The 7,000 interactions and 4,300 shares show that users were very involved, which is substantial engagement. 83.2% of the posts looked at had mostly positive feelings, which shows how optimistic most people are about EV technology. The conversation covers various topics, such as brand tastes, the effects on finances, infrastructure, and environmental issues. The information in these results is very helpful for policymakers, people working in the business, and researchers trying to understand how electric mobility is changing constantly.
... The cost of EVs is another critical factor affecting their adoption. While the initial purchase price of EVs has traditionally been higher than that of conventional vehicles, decreasing battery costs and EV-friendly government policies are narrowing this gap [7,9]. ...
The fabrication of welded joints in steel sheets has become a focal point, especially in meeting the demands for interconnections within battery packs for electric vehicles (EVs). This study delves into the impact arising from the initiation arc during the micro-tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding of nickel-plated steel sheets. The investigation involved the manipulation of various current modulations and arc lengths. Notably, optimal results were achieved with a 5 mm arc length paired with a 25 A current modulation. Microstructural analysis, conducted through scanning electron microscopy (SEM), unveiled a higher penetration depth, contributing to a more extensive and shallower fusion zone at the interface between the filler metal and the base material. Tensile testing revealed impressive mechanical properties, with the ultimate tensile strength peaking at 90 N/mm², a yield strength of 85 N/mm², and the highest elastic modulus. This underscores the weld’s robustness in withstanding applied loads and resisting fracture. Furthermore, the calculation of the lowest K factor at 1.0375 indicated a reduction in resistance across the specimen, resulting in enhanced conductivity. Micro-TIG welding emerges as an efficient method for nickel-plated steel in connecting individual battery cells to form a high-capacity battery pack. These interconnections ensure efficient current flow and maintain the overall integrity and performance of the battery pack. The reliability and quality of these interconnects directly affect the battery’s efficiency, safety, and lifespan in EVs application.
... In regions like China, the adoption of EVs has significantly reduced local PM2.5 levels, a particulate matter linked to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases [59]. The shift also promises long-term economic benefits such as a reduced dependency on imported oil and improved public health [60]. ...
This comprehensive systematic review explores the multifaceted impacts of electric vehicle (EV) adoption across technological, environmental, organizational, and policy dimensions. Drawing from 88 peer-reviewed articles, the study addresses a critical gap in the existing literature, which often isolates the impact of EV adoption without considering holistic effects. Technological advancements include innovations in the battery technology and energy storage systems, enhancing EV performance and mitigating range anxiety. The environmental analysis reveals substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, with lifecycle assessments showing significant reductions for EVs compared to internal combustion engine vehicles, particularly when charged with renewable energy sources. Key comparisons include lifecycle emissions between mid-size battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), and global average lifecycle emissions by powertrain under various policy scenarios. The organizational implications are evident, as businesses adopt new models for fleet management and logistics, leveraging EVs for operational efficiency and sustainability. Policy analysis underscores the crucial role of government incentives, regulatory measures, and infrastructure investments in accelerating EV adoption. The review identifies future research areas such as efficient battery recycling methods, the potential impact of EVs on grid stability, and long-term economic implications. This study offers insights for stakeholders aiming to foster sustainable transportation and achieve global climate goals.
... Also, not enough research has been conducted on the long-term effects of EV technologies, how user behavior changes over time, and how promoting EVs affects multi-principal development [65][66][67]. The government can enhance the social impact of a specific input by offering price concessions to electric vehicle users and exempting motor vehicle purchase tax for electric vehicle purchases [68]. The government can enhance the social impact of a specific input by offering price concessions to electric vehicle users and exempting motor vehicle purchase tax for electric vehicle purchases [69][70][71][72]. ...
This study uses an evolutionary game model to analyze the interplay between Macao residents’ willingness to purchase electric vehicles (EVs) and the government’s promotion strategies. It assesses the effectiveness of incentives like tax exemptions and price reductions. Despite these initiatives, challenges such as high initial costs, limited vehicle range, and long charging times continue to hinder the widespread adoption of EVs in Macao. Government subsidies increase the appeal of EV purchases, but if not managed carefully, they risk creating dependency. Simulation analysis shows that an active purchasing strategy by Macao residents can stabilize the model’s development. However, to achieve wider market penetration and environmental goals, this study highlights the need for the government to align subsidies with market dynamics and for residents to increase their environmental awareness. This study outlines actionable strategies for policy-makers, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure improvements and financial incentives in promoting electric mobility. Policy-makers should focus on expanding the network of charging stations to enhance the convenience and viability of EV usage. Additionally, implementing targeted financial incentives, such as subsidies or tax breaks, can lower the cost barrier for potential EV buyers, thereby increasing the attractiveness and adoption of electric vehicles.
... For many consumers, electric vehicles also prove to be more cost-effective. Making the switch to an electric vehicle will save $300 a year for every $1 increase in gasoline prices [3]. In 2022, global expenditure on electric vehicles surpassed USD 425 billion, a 50% increase from 2021. ...
In recent years, an increasing number of people have turned their attention to renewable energy, and sales of electric vehicles have skyrocketed, making electric vehicles (EVs) a very popular topic. To better understand the development of the electric vehicle market and provide some insights for investors, this study forecasts EV stock trends of two leading companies in the Electric Vehicle industry, Tesla and BYD, by the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The data in this research includes a daily time series of stock prices. ARIMA model is chosen in this research for its effectiveness in predicting stationary time series data, for its effectiveness in predicting stationary time series data, particularly suitable given the limited data available in the recently emerged EV industry. This research demonstrates that both Tesla and BYD’s stock closing prices are not stationary data. After differencing, for Tesla, the predicted result suggests a slightly increasing trend, while BYD's prices are predicted to remain at the same level and relatively stable in future 100 days. The study provides insights into the EV stock market, indicating a potential upward yet not pronounced trend in the future. But such a stable price might be a good choice for the investor low-risk takers.
... However, achieving this is not feasible without governmental incentives or public-private partnerships [118]. Governments need to devise strategies for encouraging the EV market through incentives and building adequate charging facilities to meet consumer demands while minimizing social costs [119,120]. ...
As climate change worsens and the importance of energy security grows, numerous countries have adopted energy transition as a key policy objective. Electric vehicles (EVs) play a pivotal role in this transition by diminishing reliance on fossil fuels and reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other harmful gases. While EVs are poised to be a crucial technology for achieving energy transition, substantial advancements in technology, infrastructure development, and policy support are essential for their full potential to be realized. This review examines the latest advancements in EV technology and market trends, and also addresses the challenges facing EVs and the potential opportunities for future development.
... Because of their economic and environmental benefits, wind and solar energy are regarded as reliable substitutes for traditional energy sources, and it can be argued that they are the most suitable sources for the charging infrastructure of EVs, as reported by Alkawsi et al. [18]. According to economic research, although EVs have initial costs that are higher than those of ICE cars, the operating costs and environmental advantages can differ greatly depending on the energy mix and local electricity prices, as reported by Rapson and Muehlegger [19]. Ottesen et al. [20] investigated Kuwaiti ICE drivers' opinions regarding EVs, focusing on EV characteristics, features, enablers, and barriers. ...
This study aimed to uncover the attitudes, preferences, and perceptions of Hail residents toward electric vehicles (EVs) by employing a real-life survey-based approach. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the potential adoption and impact of EVs to clarify the picture of the transition from using traditional vehicles to using EVs in Hail City, Saudi Arabia. Hail is rapidly becoming a more urbanized city; in the past few decades, the city’s area has expanded from 3242 to 17,526 hectares, and its population has increased dramatically from 82,900 in 1984 to 344,111 in present day. As a result, the city is facing increasingly difficult challenges related to rising vehicle emissions and environmental degradation. A survey was conducted among a diverse group of 346 participants. The survey results show an average of 3.15 cars per family, which indicates a strong connection with personal vehicles. The survey provides a comprehensive picture of the respondents’ socioeconomic background, indicating an average household size of 5.8 people and an average monthly income of SR 13,350. The key findings from the survey reveal that approximately 52.3% of the respondents have 3–4 family members, and nearly half of the families own one or two cars. Government employees formed a major proportion of the respondents. The results show a significant inclination toward EVs, with 78.6% of the participants being aware of EV charging stations and 37.9% expressing a positive attitude towards switching to electric vehicles. Despite this, a large majority (88.7%) have never driven an electric car. The respondents’ driving habits are further explored in the survey, which reveals an average of 2.1 h of daily driving. Furthermore, the respondents disclosed an average weekly fuel expenditure of SR 235. The results also highlight that the average weekly cost for fuel varies among the respondents, with most respondents spending no more than SR 300 per week. Additionally, this study examined the daily vehicle mileage, revealing that 37.9% of the respondents have a daily mileage of 51 to 100 km, which impacts the planning of charging station capacities and locations. The findings suggest a growing interest in EVs and highlight the need for strategic infrastructure development to support the anticipated surge in EV adoption.
... De Schepper, Van Passel, and Lizin (2015) argue that co-adoption of BEV and PV makes sense due to economic benefits. Our paper is also related to studies of the economics of BEV in general like Rapson and Muehlegger (2023) and adds one reason for low levels of low-and middle-income adoption (Muehlegger and Rapson, 2022). ...
We estimate the causal effect of the diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems on the share of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in the total vehicle fleet in Germany. Our estimates are based on instruments that induce exogenous variation in global radiation to PV installation. We find that PV adoption had a strong positive effect on the adoption of battery electric vehicles. PV adoption caused around a third of the increase in the battery electric vehicle share between 2017 and 2022 in Germany. We do not find evidence for reverse effects from BEV adoption on PV adoption. Our results imply that using PV can have effects beyond the technology itself.
... EVs experience a fabricating taken a toll challenge. Indeed in spite of the fact that battery costs have decreased by more than 85% within the final ten a long time, the beginning costs of EVs still outperform those of conventional inner combustion motor (ICE) vehicles [48]. ...
Abstract: The global automotive industry stands at a pivotal juncture, presenting both opportunities and challenges in the pursuit of environmental sustainability. Amidst the imperative to reduce its environmental impact, nations worldwide have implemented diverse policy measures to curb emissions within the automotive sector. This paper conducts a comprehensive critical review of current transport policies, analyzing their strengths and weaknesses ineffectively mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Acknowledging the automotive sector's significant contribution to pollution and its substantial employment role, this study delves into the complexities of balancing environmental concerns with economic considerations. The ongoing transition from conventional fossil fuel-powered vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) signifies a broader commitment to emission reduction and eco-friendly transportation prac-tices. The critical examination of GHG reduction policies unfolds at three levels: the global stage, governmental initiatives, and the automotive sector itself. Despite the noteworthy impact of EVs in this transition, projections suggest that they may constitute less than 5% of the overall global solution to the intricate challenges of energy consumption and pollution. This study provides a nuanced analysis of the interplay between environmental policies, industrial practices, and the broader societal implications within the automotive sector, offering valuable insights for future policy development and sustainable industry practices.
Keywords: Automotive industry, Environmental, Transport policies, GHG, EVs
... Similarly, the global LiBs market is forecasted to grow from USD 56.8 billion in 2023 to USD 187.1 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 14.2 % [11,12]. The increasing demand for electric vehicles and consumer electronics, along with efforts to reduce climate change through electrification, are driving this growth [13,14]. ...
Lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) have been consumed exponentially due to the rapid growth of electric vehicles and electronics. Efficient recycling of spent LiBs is crucial for sustainability; however, major current technologies have disregarded froth flotation which has been recently introduced as an effective separation method and drawn extensive attention in the literature. The present review summarizes recent fundamental and applied progress on recycling spent LiBs using pretreatment methods followed by froth flotation. Flotation can potentially separate anode and cathode materials based on their surface wettability differences. However, the presence of organic binders reduces this wettability contrast. Thus, pretreatment methods like thermal processes, grinding, and chemical modification were critically reviewed from different perspectives to remove organic binders and enhance flotation efficiency. The article further discusses flotation reagents, physical and chemical pretreatment options, and environmental considerations for the LiBs recycling. Challenges regarding efficiency, scalability, and sustainability are highlighted. It was revealed that future research works should mainly focus on cleaner pretreatment methods, flotation optimization, and minimization of environmental impacts to advance battery recycling.
... Selecting the right locations for electric truck charging stations can help to permanently reduce carbon emissions and promote the use of renewable energy generation ( Rapson & Muehlegger, 2023). For example, locating the charging station close to a large logistics facility can both minimize the distance traveled to the charging station (reducing energy consumption) and could use the roof area for the installation of solar panels, thus increasing the use of renewable energy and reducing the environmental impact (Ali & Naushad, 2022; Barman et al., 2023). ...
The limited infrastructure of charging stations, which is crucial in route planning and total journey time and creates uncertainty in efficiency and operating costs, calls for new economic and statistical methods in sustainability development and environmental economics. This paper aims to examine the challenges of integrating electric vehicles into freight transport to improve distribution logistics' environmental sustainability , which represents one of the pathways for reducing environmental risk. The analysis results underscore the inadequacy of the truck charging station network in the Czech Republic. This insufficiency presents an opportunity to enhance environmental sustainability and reduce carbon emissions through strategic analysis and optimizing charging station locations. The difficulty of identifying optimal locations for these stations, given truck availability, requires using multi-criteria decision-making techniques such as the Analytical Network Process (ANP). Municipalities with limited access to existing logistics facilities were considered during the simulation. This way, 15 new locations were identified for municipalities with insufficient distance to a charging station. By implementing the ANP method, the study contributes to a more environmentally sustainable transportation infrastructure, highlighting the potential for significant reductions in carbon emissions through improved charging station networks. These results apply to other countries and can provide novel insights on optimizing charging station locations for sustainable economic development and reducing freight trans-port's carbon emissions and environmental risks. Michal Husinec (Czech Republic), Wadim Strielkowski (United States, Czech Republic), Tomas Vacek (Czech Republic), Martin Vondracek (Czech Republic)
Electric Vehicles (EVs) have garnered substantial attention and adoption. Global governmental bodies are increasingly enforcing regulations aimed at curtailing carbon emissions and fostering the uptake of EVs, thus fostering an optimistic outlook for the EV industry. This scholarly discourse endeavors to scrutinize the ramifications of stock market dynamics on the Indian EV sector. Leveraging data from the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), comprising 1485 observations spanning from 2017 to 2023, this investigation employs Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) methodologies to explore the phenomenon of volatility spillover from the Indian stock market to the Indian EV market. Given the propensity of price fluctuations to exert influence on both demand and supply dynamics within the EV market, a discernible escalation in volatility is observed. Thus, it becomes imperative to ascertain the extent to which volatility permeates from one market segment (equity) to another (EVs). Insights gleaned from this study are poised to furnish risk-averse investors with strategic directives for diversifying their portfolios, specifically by channeling investments from the equity market to the EV sector in the short term.
The transportation sector ranks as the second-largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Consequently, the imperative to decarbonize transportation is paramount in the pursuit of sustainable development goals. However, despite its critical importance, research on decarbonization in transportation remains significantly limited. This gap in research is particularly glaring in developing countries, where there is a notable absence of studies addressing the decarbonization challenges within the transport sector. Addressing this research gap, this study aims to investigate the barriers and drivers influencing the decarbonization of the passenger transport sector in an emerging economy context, particularly for Bangladesh. The top three barriers identified include the ’Lack of concrete transportation policy’, ’Lack of decarbonization strategy/policy’, and ’Lack of biofuel refueling station/EV charging station’. These barriers are comprehensively analyzed based on various stakeholder perspectives. In terms of categorical barriers, policy barriers and technical barriers are predominant over other barriers. Despite these challenges, there is a growing interest in decarbonizing the transportation sector, albeit with some limitations. The primary drivers to decarbonize the transport sector include ‘Profitable return on investment’ and ’Government subsidies’. In terms of categorical drivers, economic drivers are dominant, followed by policy and social drivers. These findings are particularly relevant to the government bodies, users, manufacturers, and policymakers, offering valuable insights for navigating the complex landscape of decarbonizing passenger transport in emerging economies.
The electric vehicle (EV) market is rapidly growing, with battery modules playing a central role in this transformation. However, optimizing production throughput in battery module assembly is challenging due to the complexity of multi-stage processes and bottlenecks that limit overall efficiency. Traditional solutions, such as direct shop floor adjustments, simulation models, and digital twins (DT), can be costly and less scalable. This study proposes a digital twin surrogate (DTS) model, integrating machine learning techniques—Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, Random Forest Regression, Deep Neural Networks, XGBoost, and Long Short-Term Memory networks—to estimate throughput and predict future machine states. The impact of dataset size and aggregation methods on model performance is also examined, providing shop managers with insights into how production line variations affect throughput.
The article presents a research study dealing with the issue of identifying the crucial criteria driving the demand for electric vehicles and decision-making on the ideal electric vehicle choice for the company under investigation. Specifically, the research aimed to identify key factors influencing the decision-making process to purchase electric vans and to propose adequate recommendations when applying adequate multi-criteria decision-making methods, namely, ELECTRE I and PROMETHEE II, in the Czech and Slovak market conditions. The present survey identified six key criteria: mileage, load-carrying capacity, recharging speed, purchase price, load-bearing capacity, and electricity consumption. Based on the expert team preferences, the criteria weights were calculated, followed by data normalization and the application of both methods to evaluate individual vehicle models. Using the ELECTRE I method, the options were classified as either preferred (dominant) or unpreferred (undominant), while the PROMETHEE II ranked them from the best to the worst, preserving viable alternatives should the preferred model be unavailable. The study concludes by emphasizing the relevance of these methods in optimizing the selection of sustainable transport solutions and their broader applicability in the decision-making process on transport and mobility.
Purpose
This paper aims to explore the evolution of the electric vehicles (EVs) supply chain eco-system from the lens of economy, enterprises, environment and strategy. The paper highlights the opportunities and gaps in the supply chains of EVs and further explores the evolution of the EV supply chain in the context of Asia, and other developing regions, which are transitioning towards sustainable consumption practices.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper presents a literature review triangulated with primary research, specifically focusing on the case study of two focal organizations and associated frameworks in the domain of electric mobility, investigating the change led by electric mobility supply chain dynamics and how it has transformed the underlying supply chain ecosystem.
Findings
To this end, the paper presents key opportunities and challenges posed in the EV ecosystem, presenting a comprehensive framework of transitioning from internal combustion engines-based vehicles to EVs. The paper also presents a worldwide analysis of the economic and technological readiness of the countries in EVs domain. The paper also presents an EV market classification framework based on geopolitical factors.
Research limitations/implications
The paper opens horizons for further empirical studies (quantitative or qualitative) to understand the nuances of electric mobility.
Practical implications
The paper also presents implications for practicing managers in the domain of the electric supply chain to better understand the ecosystem, opportunities and mitigate challenges posed by this disruptive technology.
Originality/value
With the world working towards a zero-carbon future, understanding the challenges and opportunities in this field is important to support this global shift. The paper presents and an original and novel understanding of the EV supply chain ecosystem.
This chapter explores how high-performance computing (HPC) can be a transformative force towards further acceleration of AI-driven energy harvesting and environmental monitoring systems. With increasing demand for sustainable energy solutions and effective environmental management, this affords a golden opportunity through the integration of HPC and AI, which can largely optimize the processing of large datasets with respect to energy collection and increase monitoring precision. The methods used in harvesting renewable energy, such as solar and wind-based methods using AI algorithms, that analyze the energy output to optimize system efficiencies, are discussed. The chapter also discusses how HPC allows real-time analysis of environmental data that can be used in decision-making and in being proactive when there are changes in ecosystems. Case studies that focus on successful implementations show the synergistic benefits of this integration, which may directly contribute to the global sustainability agenda.
High Performance Computing (HPC) has established an important place in the performance analysis and simulation of electric vehicles. An enhanced study built on HPC answers to the high computational requirements of performance evaluation of electric vehicles, namely battery management, energy efficiency, and thermal dynamics. HPC, with parallel processing and improved algorithms, can intensively simulate powertrain systems, aerodynamics, and vehicle dynamics, keeping a stream of avenues to improve the design and functionality of electric vehicles. Further, it optimizes battery life and energy consumption as well as charging systems. This is useful for manufacturers and researchers to work toward enhancing the efficiency of EVs. The current chapter also deals with real-time simulations of HPC that allow prototyping, reduce development costs, and enable sustaining innovations in the electric vehicle business.
As the world progresses into the peak of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the adoption of smart and sustainable technologies, including electric vehicles (EVs), has gained significant momentum. However, the widespread acceptance of EVs is hindered by several unresolved barriers. This study investigates the factors influencing the adoption of electric vehicles in the Philippines, focusing on key barriers through an integrated approach using machine learning and structural equation modeling (SEM). Specifically, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and SEM are employed to analyze data from online surveys and the existing literature, identifying the critical obstacles that impact consumer acceptance. The findings reveal that the availability of charging stations, range anxiety, and vehicle costs are the primary deterrents to EV adoption. By incorporating a sustainability perspective, this study underscores the crucial role of electric vehicles in reducing environmental impacts and achieving carbon reduction targets. The hybrid methodology presented offers new insights to guide policymakers in promoting electric vehicle usage, thereby contributing to the global sustainable development goals.
Tackling climate change and biodiversity loss will require government policies to reverse environmental destruction and align economic activity with sustainability goals. Subsidy-based policies feature prominently in current national and international policy discussions about ways to address these challenges. Given this, now is a critical moment to reassess the role of subsidies to ensure that not only their benefits but also their potential drawbacks are at the forefront of discussions about their use and design. We suggest that subsidies can play an important role in protecting people and the planet. However, because subsidies can have considerable drawbacks, we also suggest that subsidies should be used cautiously to ensure that they are, on net, beneficial to society and the planet in the short and long run. Avoiding “lock-in” is paramount and can be achieved through initial design features such as time limits to sunset subsidies.
The noticeable dynamic development of electromobility poses new challenges for the energy industry and users of electric vehicles. One of these challenges is coping with the change in the way we refuel. In the case of electric vehicles, the batteries can also be charged via home electrical installations. The presence of a new, non-linear load with significant power may affect the quality parameters of electricity in this installation and therefore indirectly affect the operation of other loads. In order to investigate the possible impact of the electric vehicle charging process on these parameters, a number of measurements were carried out. This paper presents the results of observing voltage distortions in the installation as a result of the harmonics of the current supplying the AC/DC converter in the vehicle. The test results confirm the compliance of the voltage with the requirements of the standards; however, the large share of current harmonics requires the analysis of the anti-shock protections existing in the installation to ensure that they are effective when currents at higher frequencies flow. The research results may be a guide for designers and users of home electrical installations.
Free-floating car-sharing (FFCS) services allow users to rent electric vehicles by the minute without restrictions on pick-up or drop-off locations within the service area of the rental company. Beyond enlarging the choice set of mobility options, FFCS may reduce congestion and emissions in cities, depending on the service’s usage and substitution patterns. In this paper, we shed light on this by analyzing the universe of FFCS trips conducted through a leading company in Madrid during 2019. We correlate FFCS usage patterns with data on traffic conditions, demographics, and public transit availability across the city. We find complementarities between FFCS and public transport in middle-income areas with scarce public transport options. Moreover, we find that the use of FFCS peaks earlier than overall traffic and is broadly used during the summer months. This suggests that FFCS may have smoothed road traffic in Madrid, contributing to a reduction in overall congestion.
This review critically examines Pakistan's electric vehicle (EV) policy framework, assessing its effectiveness, identifying existing gaps, and evaluating socio-economic and environmental impacts. The review is structured into three main themes: current policies and their shortcomings, the socio-economic and environmental considerations of these policies, and recommendations for policy enhancements.
It was found that the current EV policies in Pakistan are inadequately aligned with both consumer needs and infrastructural demands, failing to sufficiently incentivize adoption or address the socio-economic barriers that hinder widespread uptake. Additionally, while EVs offer potential environmental benefits by reducing urban pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, the existing policies do not fully capitalize on these advantages due to gaps in strategic planning and execution. It was recommended that public awareness and incentives be enhanced, the development of EV charging infrastructure should be accelerated through public-private partnerships, renewable energy solutions should be integrated, and successful international best practices tailored to Pakistan's unique context should be adopted. The review also suggests improving the national grid's capacity and stability to support the anticipated increase in EV usage.
Heavier vehicles are safer for their own occupants but more hazardous for other vehicles. Simple theory thus suggests that
an unregulated vehicle fleet is inefficiently heavy. Using three separate identification strategies we show that, controlling
for own-vehicle weight, being hit by a vehicle that is 1000 pounds heavier generates a 40–50% increase in fatality risk. These
results imply a total accident-related externality that exceeds the estimated social cost of US carbon emissions and is equivalent
to a gas tax of 136 billion annually). We consider two policies for internalizing this external cost, a
weight-varying mileage tax and a gas tax, and find that they are similar for most vehicles. The findings suggest that European
gas taxes may be much closer to optimal levels than the US gas tax.
A new data set facilitates study of learning spillovers in World War II shipbuilding. Our results contain two principal but contrasting themes. First, learning spillovers were a significant source of productivity growth, and may have contributed more than conventional learning effects. Second, the size of the learning externalities across yards, as measured by Spence's theta, were small. These findings, which are not mutually inconsistent, suggest an optimistic view of learning spillovers: they are a significant source of productivity growth, but the market failures induced by learning externalities may be modest.
this paper studies commercial aircraft production, with an emphasis on the dynamics of production technology. Because commercial production is subject to many uncertainties not present in military production, the data presented here allows consideration of a richer set of hypotheses than was previously possible. In addition to learning, support is found for organizational forgetting, the hypothesis that the rm's production experience depreciates over time, and incomplete spillovers of production expertise from one generation of an aircraft to the next.
Little is known about electric vehicle (EV) demand by low- and middle-income households. In this paper, we exploit a policy that provides exogenous variation in large EV subsidies targeted at the mass market in California. Using transaction-level data, we estimate three important policy parameters: the rate of subsidy pass-through, the impact of the subsidy on EV adoption, and the elasticity of demand for EVs among low- and middle-income households. Demand for EVs in our sample is price-elastic (−2.1) and buyers capture roughly 73 to 85 percent of the subsidy.
Tax heavy cars and shrink batteries to consolidate the gains from electrifying transport. Tax heavy cars and shrink batteries to consolidate the gains from electrifying transport.
We provide the first at-scale estimate of electric vehicle (EV) home charging. Previous estimates are based on conflicting surveys or are extrapolated from a small, unrepresentative sample of households with dedicated EV meters. We combine billions of hourly electricity meter measurements with address-level EV registration records from California households, including 64,000 EV owners. The average EV increases overall household load by 2.9 kilowatt-hours per day, well under half the amount assumed by state regulators. Results imply that EVs travel less than expected on electric power, raising questions about transportation electrification for climate policy.
During historical periods in which US fuel economy standards were unchanging, automakers increased performance but not fuel economy, contrasting with recent periods of tightening standards and rising fuel economy. This paper evaluates the welfare consequences of automakers forgoing performance increases to raise fuel economy as standards have tightened since 2012. Using a unique data set and a novel approach to account for fuel economy and performance endogeneity, we find undervaluation of fuel cost savings and high valuation of performance. Welfare costs of forgone performance approximately equal expected fuel savings benefits, suggesting approximately zero net private consumer benefit from tightened standards.
Roughly three quarters of vehicles are purchased into multi‐car households. We study whether households are willing to substitute attributes, such as fuel economy, across vehicles within their portfolio. We develop a novel strategy to separately identify idiosyncratic preferences for an attribute from these within‐portfolio effects. Using the universe of household vehicle registration records in California over a 6‐year period, we find that two‐car households exhibit strong substitution across vehicles when faced with an exogenous change to fuel intensity of a kept vehicle. This effect can erode a substantial portion of the benefit from major policies, such as Cash‐for‐Clunkers.
We provide the first evidence that short-term exposure to air pollution affects the work performance of a group of highly skilled, quality-focused employees. We repeatedly observe the decision making of individual professional baseball umpires, quasi-randomly assigned to varying air quality across time and space. Unique characteristics of this setting combined with high-frequency data disentangle effects of multiple pollutants and identify previously underexplored acute effects. We find that a 1 ppm increase in 3-hour CO causes an 11.5% increase in the propensity of umpires to make incorrect calls and a 10 μg/m³ increase in 12-hour PM2.5 causes a 2.6% increase. We control carefully for a variety of potential confounders, and results are supported by robustness and falsification checks. Our estimates imply that a 3% reduction in productive output is associated with a change in CO concentrations equivalent to moving from the 25th to the 95th percentile of the CO distribution in many of the largest US cities.
This paper presents a literature review of studies that investigate infrastructure needs to support the market introduction of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). It focuses on literature relating to consumer preferences for charging infrastructure, and how consumers interact with and use this infrastructure. This includes studies that use questionnaire surveys, interviews, modelling, GPS data from vehicles, and data from electric vehicle charging equipment. These studies indicate that the most important location for PEV charging is at home, followed by work, and then public locations. Studies have found that more effort is needed to ensure consumers have easy access to PEV charging and that charging at home, work, or public locations should not be free of cost. Research indicates that PEV charging will not impact electricity grids on the short term, however charging may need to be managed when the vehicles are deployed in greater numbers. In some areas of study the literature is not sufficiently mature to draw any conclusions from. More research is especially needed to determine how much infrastructure is needed to support the roll out of PEVs. This paper ends with policy implications and suggests avenues of future research.
The market for plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) exhibits indirect network effects due to the interdependence between EV adoption and charging station investment. Through a stylized model, we demonstrate that indirect network effects on both sides of the market lead to feedback loops that could alter the diffusion process of the new technology. Based on quarterly EV sales and charging station deployment in 353 metro areas from 2011 to 2013, our empirical analysis finds indirect network effects on both sides of the market, with those on the EV demand side being stronger. The federal income tax credit of up to $7,500 for EV buyers contributed to about 40% of EV sales during 2011–13, with feedback loops explaining 40% of that increase. A policy of equal-sized spending but subsidizing charging station deployment could have been more than twice as effective in promoting EV adoption.
We combine a theoretical discrete-choice model of vehicle purchases, an econometric analysis of electricity emissions, and the AP2 air pollution model to estimate the geographic variation in the environmental benefits from driving electric vehicles. The second-best electric vehicle purchase subsidy ranges from 4,964 in North Dakota, with a mean of -$1,095. Ninety percent of local environmental externalities from driving electric vehicles in one state are exported to others, implying they may be subsidized locally, even when the environmental benefits are negative overall. Geographically differentiated subsidies can reduce deadweight loss, but only modestly.
Debate about the appropriate design of energy policy hinges critically on whether consumers might undervalue energy efficiency, due to myopia or some other manifestation of limited rationality. We contribute to this debate by measuring consumers' willingness to pay for fuel economy using a novel identification strategy and high quality microdata from wholesale used car auctions. We leverage differences in future fuel costs across otherwise identical vehicles that have different current mileage, and therefore different remaining lifetimes. By seeing how price differences across high and low mileage vehicles of different fuel economies change in response to shocks to the price of gasoline, we estimate the relationship between vehicle prices and future fuel costs. Our data suggest that used automobile prices move one for one with changes in present discounted future fuel costs, which implies that consumers fully value fuel economy.
Energy security is the ability of households, businesses, and government to accommodate disruptions in supply in energy markets. This survey considers the economic dimensions of energy security and political and other noneconomic security concerns and discusses policy approaches that could enhance US energy security. A number of points emerge. First, energy security is enhanced by reducing consumption, not imports. A policy to eliminate oil imports, for example, will not enhance US energy security, whereas policies to reduce energy consumption can improve energy security. Second, energy security is distinct from considerations of energy externalities. Energy security taxes are appealing on political grounds but are more difficult to justify on economic grounds. Finally, the contrasting concerns over energy security between policy makers and economists are striking. The article notes some possible reasons for these differing views and suggests possible research opportunities in this area.
We characterize regionally specific life cycle CO2 emissions per mile traveled for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) across the United States under alternative assumptions for regional electricity emission factors, regional boundaries, and charging schemes. We find that estimates based on marginal vs average grid emission factors differ by as much as 50% (using National Electricity Reliability Commission (NERC) regional boundaries). Use of state boundaries versus NERC region boundaries results in estimates that differ by as much as 120% for the same location (using average emission factors). We argue that consumption-based marginal emission factors are conceptually appropriate for evaluating the emissions implications of policies that increase electric vehicle sales or use in a region. We also examine generation-based marginal emission factors to assess robustness. Using these two estimates of NERC region marginal emission factors, we find the following: (1) delayed charging (i.e., starting at midnight) leads to higher emissions in most cases due largely to increased coal in the marginal generation mix at night; (2) the Chevrolet Volt has higher expected life cycle emissions than the Toyota Prius hybrid electric vehicle (the most efficient U.S. gasoline vehicle) across the U.S. in nearly all scenarios; (3) the Nissan Leaf BEV has lower life cycle emissions than the Prius in the western U.S. and in Texas, but the Prius has lower emissions in the northern Midwest regardless of assumed charging scheme and marginal emissions estimation method; (4) in other regions the lowest emitting vehicle depends on charge timing and emission factor estimation assumptions.
We investigate whether car buyers are myopic about future fuel costs. We estimate the effect of gasoline prices on short-run equilibrium prices of cars of different fuel economies. We then compare the implied changes in willingness-to-pay to the associated changes in expected future gasoline costs for cars of different fuel economies in order to calculate implicit discount rates. Using different assumptions about annual mileage, survival rates, and demand elasticities, we calculate a range of implicit discount rates similar to the range of interest rates paid by car buyers who borrow. We interpret this as showing little evidence of consumer myopia. (JEL D12, H25, L11, L62, L71, L81)
We analyze how the traditional logic of Pigouvian externality taxes changes if consumers undervalue energy costs when buying energy-using durables such as cars and air conditioners. First, with undervaluation, there is an Internality Dividend from Externality Taxes: aside from reducing externalities, they also reduce allocative inefficiencies caused by consumers' underinvestment in energy efficient durables. Second, although Pigouvian taxes are clearly the preferred policy mechanism when externalities are the only market failure, undervaluation provides an Internality Rationale for Energy Efficiency Policy, including fuel economy standards and subsidies for energy efficient goods. However, this Internality Rationale has surprising features: it does not apply to all classes of behavioral biases, and the socially-optimal response to undervaluation may include energy taxes higher or lower than the externality damages, despite the resulting distortion to utilization. We calibrate our results in a simulation model of the US automobile market, finding that Pigouvian taxes actually increase consumer welfare and that the optimal subsidy for high-fuel economy vehicles could be quite large.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
Environmental protection is typically cast as a tax on the labor market and the economy in general. Since a large body of evidence links pollution with poor health, and health is an important part of human capital, efforts to reduce pollution could plausibly be viewed as an investment in human capital and thus a tool for promoting economic growth. While a handful of studies have documented the impacts of pollution on labor supply, this paper is the first to rigorously assess the less visible but likely more pervasive impacts on worker productivity. In particular, we exploit a novel panel dataset of daily farm worker output as recorded under piece rate contracts merged with data on environmental conditions to relate the plausibly exogenous daily variations in ozone with worker productivity. We find robust evidence that ozone levels well below federal air quality standards have a significant impact on productivity: a 10 ppb decrease in ozone concentrations increases worker productivity by 4.2 percent.
Federal, state, and local governments use a variety of incentives to induce consumer adoption of hybrid-electric vehicles. We study the relative efficacy of state sales tax waivers, income tax credits, and non-tax incentives and find that the type of tax incentive offered is as important as the generosity of the incentive. Conditional on value, sales tax waivers are associated with more than a ten-fold increase in hybrid sales relative to income tax credits. In addition, we examine how adoption varies with fuel prices. Rising gasoline prices are associated with greater hybrid vehicle sales, but this effect operates almost entirely through high fuel-economy vehicles. By comparing consumer response to sales tax waivers and estimated future fuel savings, we estimate an implicit discount rate of 14.6% on future fuel savings.
It is often asserted that consumers purchasing automobiles or other goods and services underweight the costs of gasoline or other "add-ons." We test this hypothesis in the US automobile market by examining the effects of time series variation in gasoline price expectations on the prices and market shares of vehicles with different fuel economy ratings. When gas prices rise, demand for high fuel economy vehicles increases, pushing up their relative prices. Market share changes - increased production of high fuel economy vehicles and scrappage of low fuel economy vehicles - attenuate these price changes. Intuitively, the less that equilibrium vehicle prices and shares respond to changes in expected gasoline prices, the less that consumers appear to value gasoline costs. We estimate a nested logit discrete choice model using a remarkable dataset that includes market shares, characteristics, expected usage, and transaction price microdata for all new and used vehicles available between 1999 and 2008. To address simultaneity bias, we introduce a new instrument for used vehicle market shares, based on the fact that gasoline prices cause variation in new vehicle shares that then persists over time as the vehicles move through resale markets. Our results show that US auto consumers are willing to pay just 1. We incorporate the estimated parameters into a new discrete choice approach to behavioral welfare analysis, which suggests with caution that a paternalistic energy efficiency policy could generate welfare gains of $3.6 billion per year. Princeton s Industrial Relations Section, Harvard s Energy Technology Innovation Policy group, and the Harvard University Center for the Envi- ronment.
- Acemoglu D.
- Graff Zivin J.