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Exploring the evolution of public acceptance towards autonomous vehicles with the level of knowledge
Abstract
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) offer numerous advantages, including improved mobility, enhanced comfort, and a reduction in traffic accidents. However, the acceptance and adoption of AVs by the public depend on their attitudes towards this emerging technology. The relationship between public knowledge of AVs and their attitudes has been a topic of debate, with conflicting findings. This study aims to examine the correlation between public knowledge, and attitudes towards AVs in the USA. A questionnaire survey was conducted between June and November 2022, collecting 5778 complete responses from diverse regions across the USA. The collected data were analysed to assess the public’s attitudes and knowledge levels in different regions. The findings revealed a negative shift in public attitudes towards AVs as knowledge levels increased. Specifically, a 1% increase in knowledge corresponded to a 0.65% decrease in interest, a 0.68% decline in trust, a $2466 USD reduction in willingness to pay for AVs, and a 0.56% increase in concerns about traveling in AVs. Furthermore, additional analyses were performed to explore how the attitudes of various demographic groups evolve with varying levels of knowledge showing a consistent negative shift in the attitude with the increase in the level of knowledge for participants across the different demographic groups.
... Psychological safety of autonomous systems is closely related to the notions of perceived safety which is believed to be a determining factor for trust (Akalin et al., 2022;Kamide et al, 2012) and is influenced by a user's mental model of system functionality, testing, and reliability (Othman, 2023). In contrast to the objective and deterministic nature of physical safety (where risk of harm is quantified as a product of severity and likelihood), psychological safety derives from perception and feelings resulting from physical interactions. ...
This paper addresses the critical issue of psychological safety in the design and operation of autonomous vehicles, which are increasingly integrated with artificial intelligence technologies. While traditional safety standards focus primarily on physical safety, this paper emphasizes the psychological implications that arise from human interactions with autonomous vehicles, highlighting the importance of trust and perceived risk as significant factors influencing user acceptance. Through a review of existing safety techniques, the paper defines psychological safety in the context of autonomous vehicles, proposes a risk model to identify and assess psychological risks, and adopts a system-theoretic analysis method. The paper illustrates the potential psychological hazards using a scenario involving a family's experience with an autonomous vehicle, aiming to systematically evaluate situations that could lead to psychological harm. By establishing a framework that incorporates psychological safety alongside physical safety, the paper contributes to the broader discourse on the safe deployment of autonomous vehicle and aims to guide future developments in user-cantered design and regulatory practices.
... By comparing people before and after having experience with autonomous vehicles, Encinar et al. [56] further found that user acceptance of autonomous driving technology significantly increases after firsthand experience with a real autonomous car. Conversely, Othman [57] offered a contrasting view, suggesting that increased knowledge without practical experience may heighten skepticism and reduce trust due to awareness of potential risks and limitations. Xu et al. [58] claimed that while experience enhances trust and perceived usefulness, it does not necessarily translate into a stronger intention to use AVs, indicating that other factors may also play a role in adoption decisions. ...
This paper presents a decomposed self-efficacy-based value adoption model (SVAM) to explore user perceptions of partially autonomous vehicles (PAVs) and fully autonomous vehicles (FAVs) and their impacts on adoption intention. Data from 279 participants on Mechanical Turk were analyzed using structural equation modeling and multigroup analysis via SmartPLS4.0. Survey results revealed a preference among respondents for PAVs over FAVs. The analysis showed differential effects of perceived value and self-efficacy regarding PAVs and FAVs, shedding light on why users favored PAVs over more advanced FAVs. Perceived enjoyment was identified as a predominant factor in shaping value perceptions of autonomous vehicles, surpassing utilitarian usefulness. Selfefficacy played a varying driving force in preference for PAVs and FAVs, determined by perceived ease of use and familiarity. The proposed SVAM model offers enhanced insights compared to the technology acceptance model in
discerning the adoption patterns between PAVs and FAVs. These findings provide valuable insights regarding factors influencing user perceptions and intentions toward PAVs and FAVs, highlighting the different emphases of technology development and marketing in this domain.
... [39,40]). In terms of demographic characteristics, the main findings show that the willingness to use CAVs could be affected by age, gender, income, and education factors [41][42][43]. In terms of the psychological characteristics, trust and perceived benefit are positive predictors, and perceived risk and perceived dread are negative predictors [44,45]. ...
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This study identifies factors influencing Human-driven vehicle (HDV) drivers’ attitudes toward connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), affirming that psychological characteristics significantly impact interactive driving choices. The findings hold vital policy implications for government agencies and CAV producers, guiding strategic decisions in the autonomous transportation landscape.
Abstract
Human-driven vehicles (HDVs) will share the road with connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) in the near future. Accordingly, the investigation of the interactive behavior of HDV drivers toward CAVs is becoming critical. In this study, a questionnaire survey was first conducted. The heterogenous clusters of HDV drivers were revealed through the latent profile analysis based on the collected dataset, with the focus on their trust and familiarity with CAVs, their attitudes towards sharing the road with CAVs, and their risk perception and perceived behavior control when they faced the CAVs. Subsequently, the correlation between the respective latent cluster and several socio-demographic factors was understood based on the multinomial logistic regression model, and the choice behavior of each cluster in different interactive driving scenarios was revealed. Three vital findings were reported. (1) Three profile clusters of HDV drivers (i.e., negative individuals, neutral individuals, and positive individuals) were revealed. (2) The drivers of a low/middle income and with a long driving experience were more likely to be negative individuals, whereas the CAV experience can make drivers feel positive towards CAVs. (3) Negative individuals might give up on changing lanes when a CAV platoon driving was noticed in the target lanes; in addition, they might raise more rigorous requirements for vehicle spacing in the lane-changing process when finding CAVs driving in the target lanes. To be specific, negative and neutral individuals preferred driving in front of the CAV platoons. The findings can provide references for developing effective management measures or CAV control strategies for transportation systems.
... This standard outlines six distinct levels of driving automation, ranging from SAE level 0, where the driver maintains full control of the vehicle, to SAE level 5, where vehicles can autonomously handle all dynamic driving tasks without human intervention [7]. Notably, leading automobile manufacturers such as Audi (Volkswagen) and Tesla have embraced SAE level 2 automation standards in the development of their respective automation features, including Tesla's Autopilot [8] and Audi A8's Traffic Jam Pilot [9,10]. In contrast, Alphabet's Waymo has been exploring a business model since 2016 based on SAE level 4 self-driving taxi services, which are designed to operate within a limited geographic area in Arizona, USA, and generate fares [11]. ...
Autonomous vehicles are at the forefront of future transportation solutions, but their success hinges on reliable perception. This review paper surveys image processing and sensor fusion techniques vital for ensuring vehicle safety and efficiency. The paper focuses on object detection, recognition, tracking, and scene comprehension via computer vision and machine learning methodologies. In addition, the paper explores challenges within the field, such as robustness in adverse weather conditions, the demand for real-time processing, and the integration of complex sensor data. Furthermore, we examine localization techniques specific to autonomous vehicles. The results show that while substantial progress has been made in each subfield, there are persistent limitations. These include a shortage of comprehensive large-scale testing, the absence of diverse and robust datasets, and occasional inaccuracies in certain studies. These issues impede the seamless deployment of this technology in real-world scenarios. This comprehensive literature review contributes to a deeper understanding of the current state and future directions of image processing and sensor fusion in autonomous vehicles, aiding researchers and practitioners in advancing the development of reliable autonomous driving systems.
Cloud robotics has emerged as a transformative technology in the realm of autonomous vehicles, presenting a paradigm shift in the way these vehicles perceive, navigate, and make decisions. The chapter provides a comprehensive analysis of the key components, advantages, and challenges of integrating cloud robotics into autonomous vehicles. Cloud robotics leverages the power of real-time data processing, machine learning, and scalability. It enhances the safety, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness of autonomous vehicles. However, it also introduces challenges, such as latency, security, and connectivity, which demand innovative solutions. The chapter also discusses the application of advanced technologies in decision-making, model training, adaptability, and the learning process. It also addresses the regulatory and ethical considerations surrounding autonomous vehicles, examining government regulations and the broader societal implications of this technology.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to offer a large number of benefits such as reducing the energy consumed and reducing the anxiety of the drivers. On the other side, the degree to which AVs will be adopted mainly depends on the public attitude and acceptance of this emerging technology. Over the last few years, AVs got involved in multiple accidents with different levels of severity. These accidents were widely covered in the media, creating a debate about the safety of this technology and discouraging people from adopting this new technology even if it offers a safer environment. In this study, a questionnaire survey was conducted to understand the impact of accidents involving AVs on the public perception of this technology for respondents with different demographic characteristics (age, gender, education, income, and prior knowledge about AVs). The results show the most negative shift in the attitude occurs for respondents who are older, female, and have no prior knowledge about AVs or their incidents. Additionally, the results shed light on the importance of educating the public about AVs in order to guarantee the highest level of acceptance. Finally, the findings of this paper can help AVs developer, policymakers, and transport planning agencies in understating the public attitude after accidents in order to react properly to avoid discouraging people from adopting AVs.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have attracted extensive attention worldwide for their huge potential to revolutionize urban cities. The diffusion of AVs in cities will largely depend on public acceptance of AVs. But many studies revealed that people hold a high level of concern about AVs. This study aims to enrich our understanding of public acceptance of AVs in China, both at the explicit level and at the implicit level. We also attempt to enhance people’s positive attitudes toward AVs by Evaluative Conditioning (EC). Study 1 found that participants recognized the benefits of AVs, but were also concerned about them. Moreover, participants showed only moderate trust in AVs. In Study 2, it was observed that participants mainly showed positive implicit attitudes toward AVs and there was no significant correlation between implicit and explicit attitudes toward AVs. In Study 3, EC offered an alternative way to change implicit attitudes. Specifically, implicit attitudes toward AVs were positively increased through EC, whereas explicit attitudes did not change significantly. This research provides several theoretical and practical implications. The findings support the notion that explicit and implicit attitudes involve independent psychological processes, and that implicit attitude can be changed through EC.
The level of investment in AVs technology has been increasing over the years as both researchers and developers are cooperating with the objective of developing AVs and understanding their behaviors and implications. Despite the enthusiastic speculation about AVs, little is known about the implications of AVs on our lives and the intertwined relationships between the implications. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to reveal the benefits and risks of AVs and sketch out the main trends in this area in order to provide some directions and recommendations for the future. This study focuses on analyzing the impact of AVs on the required fleet size, vehicle utilization, cost of mobility, public transit service, public behavior, transportation network, land use, economy, environment, society, and public health. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the intertwined relationship between the implications of AVs. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the potential benefits and challenges of the deployment of AVs in developing countries. The analysis shows that while AVs offer multiple benefits, they also pose new risks. The degree to which AVs can affect our plant mainly depends on regulatory actions, as the broader implications of AVs are mainly dependent on how the technology will be adopted, which can be controlled by regulatory actions.
Over the last few years, a large emphasis has been devoted to Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), as vehicle automation promises a large number of benefits such as: improving mobility and minimization of energy and emissions. Additionally, AVs represent a major tool in the fight against pandemics as autonomous vehicles can be used to transport people while maintaining isolation and sterilization. Thus, manufacturers are racing to introduce AVs as fast as possible. However, laws and regulations are not yet ready for this change and the legal sector is following the development of autonomous vehicles instead of taking the lead. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the previous studies in the transportation field that involve AVs with the aim of exploring the implications of AVs on the safety, public behavior, land use, economy, society and environment, public health, and benefits of autonomous vehicles in fighting pandemics.
Achieving a critical mass in the acceptance of fully autonomous public transport (APT) is crucial for a society to effectively realise APT’s intended environmental, social and economic benefits. The current study analyses the determinants contributing to user acceptance of APT through three theoretical lenses, namely, Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), Perceived Value Theory and Social Exchange Theory. Survey data were collected from 476 commuters in Beijing, China. The results reveal that the five dimensions of UTAUT (i.e. performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, facilitating conditions and hedonic motivation) have positive influence on users’ value perception of APT. Consequently, users’ value perception of APT exerts both direct and indirect influences on users’ acceptance of APT via trust. A key contribution of this study is the combination and synthesis of several complementary behavioural theories to explain user acceptance of autonomous vehicles. In addition, the results offer important implications for transport policymakers and operators, in particular, pertaining to areas on resource allocation, marketing, communication and education to improve user acceptance of APT.
Over the last few years, autonomous vehicles (AVs) have witnessed tremendous worldwide interest. Although AVs have been extensively studied in the literature regarding their benefits, implications, and public acceptance, research on the physical infrastructure requirements for autonomous vehicles is still in the infancy stage. For the road infrastructure, AVs can be very promising; however, AVs might introduce new risks and challenges. This paper investigates the impact of AVs on the physical infrastructure with the objective of revealing the infrastructure changes and challenges in the era of AVs. In AVs, the human factor, which is the major factor that influences the geometric design, will not be a concern anymore so the geometric design requirements can be relaxed. On the other hand, the decrease in the wheel wander, because of the lane-keeping system, and the increase in the lane capacity, because of the elimination of the human factor, will bring an accelerated rutting potential and will quickly deteriorate the pavement condition. Additionally, the existing structural design methods for bridges are not safe to support autonomous truck platoons. For parking lots, AVs have the potential to significantly increase the capacity of parking lots using the blocking strategy. However, the implementation of this parking strategy faces multiple issues such as the inconsistent marking system. Finally, AVs will need new infrastructure facilities such as safe harbor areas.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) or self-driving cars have the potential to provide many benefits such as improving mobility and reducing the energy and emissions consumed, travel time, and vehicle ownership. Thus, in the last few years, both research and industry have put significant efforts to develop AVs. However, laws and regulations are not ready yet for this switch and the legal sector is unable to take the lead but follow the development of AVs. Besides, the social acceptance is considered as a main key factor for the success of any new technology. Despite the enthusiastic speculation of AVs, little is known about the public acceptance and perception of the AVs technology or the factors that influence the public acceptance. This paper reviews the previous studies that focuses on testing the public acceptance and perception of AVs and sketches out the main trends in this area to provide some directions and recommendations for the future. This paper focuses on the influence of safety, ethics, liability, regulations, and the recent pandemic on the public acceptance of AVs.
Research on vehicle automation has launched many years ago. Over the last decade, autonomous vehicles (AVs) have witnessed tremendous improvement because of the significant effort dedicated to AVs from both research and industry. Despite the enthusiastic speculation of AVs, little is known about the influence of vehicle automation on the public transit service. Thus, the main goal of this paper is to investigate and explore the implications of vehicle automation on the shape of public transit. In this paper three scenarios of AVs adoption are explored: autonomous vehicles are used for the entire trip (AV as a competitor to the public transportation), integrated AVs with the current public transit system (AVs are used to solve the first mile last mile problem to increase the attractive ness of the transit service), and fully autonomous buses. Finally, results show that a combination between scenario two and three is the recommended scenario in order to derive the optimal benefits of the automation technology.
Public acceptance of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is vital for a society to reap their intended benefits such as reduced traffic accidents, land usage, congestion and environmental pollution. The purpose of this paper is to use the theory of planned behaviour to pinpoint and examine the components affecting public acceptance of AVs. A model consisting of a network of hypothesised relationships is introduced. Thereafter, 526 residents in Seoul, Korea, were given a survey created for this research. Subsequently, to evaluate the collected information and estimate the model, structural equation modelling was adopted. The outcomes show individuals' mindset on AVs, subjective customs, and behavioural influence directly influencing the acceptance of AVs. Furthermore, cognitive and emotive factors, namely comparative advantage, compatibility, complexity and hedonic motivation indirectly influence the acceptance of AVs via mindset and behavioural manipulation. Based on analysing the cumulative effect, attitude emerged with the strongest effect on public acceptance of autonomous vehicles. After this is, in decreasing order of influence, behavioural control, relative advantage, subjective norms, compatibility, hedonic motivation and complexity. The findings of this study implicate the prioritisation and allocation of resources, and policies relating to marketing, education, subsidisation and infrastructure development to better public acceptance of AVs.
The adoption of autonomous vehicles is reported to confer numerous benefits such as improved safety, comfort, resource (i.e. land and energy) use, and environmental protection to a society. Public acceptance is necessary for the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles. Drawing on innovation diffusion, perceived value and trust theories, we developed a theoretical model to identify the latent factors influencing public acceptance of autonomous vehicles and examined their interrelationships. A survey questionnaire was designed and administered to 526 residents in Seoul, Republic of Korea. Thereafter, structural equation modelling was employed to analyse the survey data. The results reveal that the influence of the innovation diffusion attributes (i.e. relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability and observability) on public acceptance is fully mediated by the public's perceived value of autonomous vehicles. Further, the effect of perceived value on public acceptance is partially mediated by the public's trust in autonomous vehicles. This study differentiates from the literature by employing a theory-driven approach to explain autonomous vehicles acceptance. It applies three diverse research paradigms anchoring on innovation diffusion, customer utility and social psychology. In addition, it synthesises the theories and provides a coherent explanation of individuals' cognition process that leads to acceptance. In sum, this study enriches existing theoretical research on the acceptance of autonomous vehicles, offers insights into understanding and managing technology–human interactions and implicates transport policies and practices.
Excessive dependence on autonomous vehicles (AVs) may exacerbate traffic congestion and increase exhaust emissions in the future. The diffusion of AVs may be significantly affected by the public’s acceptance. A few factors that may affect people’s acceptance of AVs have been researched in the existing studies, one-third of which cited behavioral theories, while the rest did not. A total of seven factors with behavior theories are screened out that significantly affect the acceptance intention, including perceived ease of use, attitude, social norm, trust, perceived usefulness, perceived risk, and compatibility. Six factors without behavior theories are summed up that affect AV acceptance, namely safety, performance-to-price value, mobility, value of travel time, symbolic value, and environmentally friendly. We found that people in Europe and Asia have substantial differences in attitudes toward AVs and that safety is one of the most concerned factors of AVs by scholars and respondents. Public acceptance of the different types of AVs and consumers’ dynamic preferences for AVs are highlighted in the review too. The quality of literature is systematically assessed based on previously established instruments and tailored for the current review. The results of the assessment show potential opportunities for future research, such as the citation of behavior theories and access to longitudinal data. Additionally, the experimental methods and the utilization of mathematical and theoretical methods could be optimized.
Research on car dependence exposes the difficulty of moving away from a car-dominated, high-carbon transport system, but neglects the political-economic factors underpinning car-dependent societies. Yet these factors are key constraints to attempts to ‘decouple' human well-being from energy use and climate change emissions. In this critical review paper, we identify some of the main political-economic factors behind car dependence, drawing together research from several fields. Five key constituent elements of what we call the ‘car-dependent transport system’ are identified: i) the automotive industry; ii) the provision of car infrastructure; iii) the political economy of urban sprawl; iv) the provision of public transport; v) cultures of car consumption. Using the ‘systems of provision’ approach within political economy, we locate the part played by each element within the key dynamic processes of the system as a whole. Such processes encompass industrial structure, political-economic relations, the built environment, and cultural feedback loops. We argue that linkages between these processes are crucial to maintaining car dependence and thus create carbon lock-in. In developing our argument we discuss several important characteristics of car-dependent transport systems: the role of integrated socio-technical aspects of provision, the opportunistic use of contradictory economic arguments serving industrial agendas, the creation of an apolitical façade around pro-car decision-making, and the ‘capture’ of the state within the car-dependent transport system. Through uncovering the constituents, processes and characteristics of car-dependent transport systems, we show that moving past the automobile age will require an overt and historically aware political program of research and action.
On the basis of a systematic literature review of 124 empirical studies, the present study proposes MAVA, a multi-level model to predict automated vehicle acceptance (AVA). It incorporates a process-oriented view, considering acceptance as the result of a four-stage decision-making process that ranges from the exposure of the individual to AVs (stage 1), the formation of favourable or unfavourable attitudes towards AVs (stage 2), making the decision to adopt or reject AVs (stage 3), to the implementation of AVs into practice (stage 4). MAVA incorporates twenty-eight acceptance factors that represent seven acceptance classes. The factors are located at the micro- and meso-level. Factors at the micro-level constitute individual difference factors. The meso-level captures domain-specific, symbolic-affective and moral-normative fac- tors. The literature review revealed that 6% of the studies investigated the exposure of individuals to AVs (i.e., knowledge & experience). 22% of the studies investigated domain-specific factors (i.e., perfor- mance/effort expectancy, facilitating conditions, safety/reliability/security, service/vehicle characteristics), 4% symbolic-affective factors (i.e., hedonic motivation, social influence), and 12% moral-normative fac- tors (perceived benefits/risks). Factors related to a person’s socio-demographic profile, travel behaviour, and personality were investigated by 28%, 15% and 14% of the studies, respectively. We recommend that future studies empirically verify MAVA using longitudinal or experimental studies.
For the benefits of autonomous vehicles (AVs) to be optimized, the fleet conversion process needs to be efficient and timely. This study explored public attitudes to AVs to inform strategies to increase receptivity to the wide-scale use of AVs. A national online survey was administered to a sample of 1,624 Australians aged 16+ years. The survey featured open-ended questions that scoped respondents’ perceptions of AVs. A grounded, thematic analysis identified two primary dimensions in the data: response valence (how positive or negative the comments were about the advent of AVs) and response type (the extent to which the comments reflected a cognitive or emotional response). This resulted in a dimensional analysis featuring four quadrants that captured the topics that were most frequently raised spontaneously by respondents. The quadrant characterized by comments that were positive/neutral and cognitive in nature was the most substantial, indicating general acceptance. Where concerns were expressed, they typically related to perceived safety, trust, and control issues, and tended to be more emotional in nature. The results highlight the importance of providing the public with concrete information about AVs to address fear levels and to resolve trust and control issues.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) hold considerable promise for maintaining aging adults’ mobility as they develop impairments in driving skill. Nonetheless, attitudes can be a significant barrier to adoption as has been shown for other technologies. We investigated how different introductions to AV, video with a driver in the front seat, the rear seat, and a written description, affected attitudes, as well as how individual difference variables such as age, gender, prior knowledge, and personality traits predict attitudes within a middle-aged (Median age = 34, IQR = 20, n = 441) Amazon Mechanical Turk sample. The 16-item attitude survey uncovered three factors: Concern with AV, Eagerness to Adopt AV technology, and Willingness to Relinquish Driving Control. ANOVAs showed that only age (younger less concerned) and gender, (females more concerned) were significant factors in Concern with AV. Only gender affected Willingness to Relinquish Driving Control, with males more willing. Multiple regressions that included previous knowledge level and personality traits showed a different pattern. Female gender and greater conscientiousness were associated with greater Concern about AV. Prior knowledge of AV was associated with less concern. Emotional stability and openness to experience were positive predictors of Eagerness to Adopt AV, whereas conscientiousness was a negative predictor. Prior knowledge and openness to experience, positively, and extraversion, negatively, were associated with being willing to relinquish driving control. These results suggest that different information dissemination campaigns are needed to persuade consumers to adopt AV technology. We discuss potential approaches.
Self-driving cars are now being tested on roads in the UK and the public’s perception will become a crucial part of determining the role that self-driving cars have in the future. This paper contains survey results of the public and concludes that most people think self-driving cars will reduce the number of accidents on motorways but only a small percentage of people would be interested in owning one. The results are compared to an equivalent survey from 2014 and the data shows that the public is less positive about self-driving cars today.
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) promise many benefits for future mobility. Several modeling studies investigated their potential impacts with special focus on spatial and/or socio-economic features. Spatial modeling represents (i) in detail the technical specifications of the novel mode, and ii) the spatial features of the area in which the system is implemented. Most of these models are agent-based. Socio-economic modeling addresses the conditions of market penetration and diffusion using mathematical methods with commercial or social orientation. Furthermore, it investigates investment and operating costs.
This paper summarizes the main modeling works on transportation systems involving AVs that were published in the academic literature up to end 2016. In addition, we provide some examples of applications and address their respective outreach and limitations. We present recommendations for future developments.
This way, the paper takes part to a research project of which the ultimate goal is to build a predictive model that can be used by operators and policy-makers in order to test AVs scenarios.
Passenger acceptance is a key factor for the successful integration, uptake and use of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in the domain of public transportation. Especially knowing opinions and attitudes around safety, comfort and convenience. We discuss a pilot study conducted as part of a larger research project where AVs are being tested to transport members of the general public on a specified route with designated stops. We present preliminary findings of fieldwork conducted where people were asked their opinions and attitudes both before and after riding on an AV shuttle as a passenger for the first time. This allows us to compare user expectation beforehand with actual experience afterwards.
This paper investigates the place of utility cycling under urban modernism in the UK. In many western contexts the dominant feature of urban modernism was its emphasis on accommodating private vehicles to the neglect of other forms of mobility. The result was the production of a ‘car- system’ with significant change to urban and rural environments. This paper assesses resistance to what we term ‘automobile modernism’ during the high watermark of its planning and implementation (1950-1970), using the UK Cyclists’ Touring Club archive. We make three contributions. First, and primarily, we highlight how cycling advocacy contested automobile modernism’s claim that cycling was ‘outmoded’. In so doing we note significant continuity in policy debates and political advocacy regarding cycling’s place in the road environment around issues such as segregation from motor vehicles. Contemporary attempts to promote cycling, as well as a wider urban sustainability agenda, are heavily influenced by this history. Second, we highlight a commonality between cycling and other resistance to automobile modernism in terms of rural and urban landscape impacts. Third, we highlight how the CTC ‘professionalized’ its advocacy to resist automobile modernism.
It is expected that automated vehicles (AVs) will only be used when customers believe them to be safe, trustworthy, and match their personal driving style. As AVs are not very common today, most previous studies on trust, user experience, or acceptance measures in automated driving are based on qualitative measures. The approach followed in this work is different, as we compared the direct effect of human drivers versus automated driving systems (ADSs) on the front seat passenger. In a driving simulator study (N=48), subjects had either to ride with an ADS, a male, or a female driver. Driving scenarios were the same for all subjects. Findings from quantitative measurements (HRV, face tracking) and qualitative pre-/post study surveys and interviews suggest that there are no significant differences between the passenger groups. Our conclusion is, that passengers are already inclined to accept ADS and that the market is ready for AVs.
In this paper, a study on public opinions towards implementation of automated vehicles in urban areas is reported which is based on a survey in La Rochelle. This was a part of the evaluation activities on the automated vehicle demonstrated in the city. According to the surveys, public attitudes were positive towards implementation of automated buses in urban areas. The most attractive benefit of automated buses would be lower bus fares because of no driver costs. About two thirds of people surveyed would consider taking automated buses if both automated and conventional buses were available on a route. Passenger security would be one of most concerned issues for automated buses especially during night time services. The public attitudes towards automated cars in urban areas were also positive. More than half of the people surveyed stated that they would consider using automated cars if they become available, with three quarters being interested in owning an automated cars, and one quarter in sharing automated cars through services such as car-sharing, car-pooling, or taxis.
Technological advances are bringing connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) to the ever-evolving transportation system. Anticipating public acceptance and adoption of these technologies is important. A recent internet-based survey polled 347 Austinites to understand their opinions on smart-car technologies and strategies. Results indicate that respondents perceive fewer crashes to be the primary benefit of autonomous vehicles (AVs), with equipment failure being their top concern. Their average willingness to pay (WTP) for adding full (Level 4) automation (3300) to their current vehicles.
Ordered probit and other model specifications estimate the impact of demographics, built-environment variables, and travel characteristics on Austinites’ WTP for adding various automation technologies and connectivity to their current and coming vehicles. It also estimates adoption rates of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) under different pricing scenarios (1, 2, and $3 per mile), choice dependence on friends’ and neighbors’ adoption rates, and home-location decisions after AVs and SAVs become a common mode of transport. Higher-income, technology-savvy males, who live in urban areas, and those who have experienced more crashes have a greater interest in and higher WTP for the new technologies, with less dependence on others’ adoption rates. Such behavioral models are useful to simulate long-term adoption of CAV technologies under different vehicle pricing and demographic scenarios. These results can be used to develop smarter transportation systems for more efficient and sustainable travel.
At the heart of technology transitions lie complex processes of social and
industrial dynamics. The quantitative study of sustainability transitions
requires modelling work, which necessitates a theory of technology
substitution. Many, if not most, contemporary modelling approaches for future
technology pathways overlook most aspects of transitions theory, for instance
dimensions of investor choices, dynamic rates of diffusion and the profile of
transitions. A significant body of literature however exists that demonstrates
how transitions follow S-shaped diffusion curves or Lotka-Volterra systems of
equations. This framework is used ex-post since timescales can only be reliably
obtained in cases where the transitions have already occurred, precluding its
use for studying cases of interest where nascent innovations in protective
niches await favourable conditions for their diffusion. Scaling parameters of
transitions can in principle be derived from industrial dynamics, technology
turnover rates and technology characteristics. In this context, this paper
presents a theory framework for calculating the parameterisation of S-shaped
diffusion curves for use in simulation models of technology transitions without
the involvement of historical data fitting, making use of standard demography
theory applied to technology at the unit level. The classic Lotka-Volterra
competition system emerges from first principles from demography theory, its
timescales explained in terms of technology lifetimes and industrial dynamics.
The theory is discussed in the context of the multi-level perspective on
technology transitions, where innovation and the diffusion of new
socio-technical regimes take a prominent place, offering a bridge between
qualitative and quantitative descriptions.
There is an emerging consensus among macro-economists that differences in technology across countries account for the major differences in per-capita GDP and the wages of workers with similar skills across countries. Accounting for differences in technology levels across countries thus can go a long way towards understanding global inequality. One mechanism by which poorer countries can catch up with richer countries is through technological diffusion, the adoption by low-income countries of the advanced technologies produced in high-income countries. In this survey, we examine recent micro studies that focus on understanding the adoption process. If technological diffusion is a major channel by which poor countries can develop, it must be the case that technology adoption is incomplete or the inputs associated with the technologies are under-utilized in poor, or slow-growing economies. Thus, obtaining a better understanding of the constraints on adoption is useful in understanding a major component of growth.
Stakeholders and decision-makers are wondering about the implications and effects of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on the travel behavior in the future. It is expected that AVs will change the shape of cities, land use, and consequently planning. The future in the era of AVs is unknown but planning requires prediction for the future needs, which is really hard with the uncertainty associated with AVs. As a result, it is critical to understand the behavior of AVs and try to quantify their implications on the individuals and societies as this can help planners significantly to predict the future and prepare for it. This paper helps researchers to understand and explore the main trends in autonomous vehicle technology for the past, present, and future.
Automated vehicle (AV) technology is likely to influence transportation, mobility, and society dramatically. The year 2020 was a horizon year for the AV, as manufacturers expected commercial AVs to be available to the general market. However, we experienced one cycle of hyperbole for these “self-driving” cars, which are still unavailable to consumers. Meanwhile, many persistent beliefs about this technology are factual or arguable misconceptions. However, the public attitude literature rarely examines public misconceptions of AVs. Thus, we explored the prevalence of three misconceptions: “AVs are already available in the market,” “AVs do not need to be driven manually at all,” and “Mature business models for AVs have been established.” We investigated these misconceptions’ correlations with several cognitive (i.e., benefit and risk perceptions), affective (i.e., positive and negative affect), and behavioral components (i.e., behavioral intention and willingness to pay) of attitudes and trust in AVs. Our online survey in China (N = 1,026) indicated that more than 70% of participants hold one or more of the three misconceptions, with one-third believing that AVs are already available in the market. Furthermore, participants believing one or more of the three misconceptions were more positive regarding specific attitudinal factors (e.g., those who believed that AVs are already available reported greater behavioral intention to use and willingness to pay for AVs than those who rejected this misbelief). This finding indicates that people who are more wrong about AVs might be more positive toward AVs. We need effective and accurate public communication to dispel public misconceptions about AVs and build rational expectations.
Automated vehicles (AVs) have potential to impact transportation, mobility, and society considerably in the future. Many beliefs surrounding this technology are criticized as “misconceptions” by transport experts, developers, journalists, and communicators. Understanding how the public views these beliefs offers insights for improving public communication and policymaking. We conducted the first study on views of 24 of these beliefs, including 21 arguable misconceptions (seven optimistic beliefs, 10 pessimistic beliefs, two beliefs of low requirements for AVs, two beliefs of high requirements for AVs) and three factual misconceptions about current AVs (e.g., “AVs are already available in the market”). During June 2020, Chinese participants (N = 1209) rated their agreement with these beliefs. They reached consensus on 16 beliefs. More than 50% of participants rejected nine beliefs and supported seven beliefs. They had some misconceptions about AVs. Nearly one third believed that AVs are already available in the market. Four classes of participants emerged through latent class analysis, labeled as “don’t know” (19.2%), “neutral to positive” (32.6%), “naïve enthusiasts” (28.3%), and “sober skeptics” (19.9%). Comparison of the latter two classes demonstrated the irony that those holding more misconceptions about AVs were more receptive to AVs, whereas those holding fewer misconceptions about AVs were more skeptical about AVs. Knowing more about AVs was associated viewing AVs more negatively. Effective public communication is urgent to dispel myths about AVs and prevent AV technology from becoming controversial.
Successful dissemination of a new technology requires broad acceptance in society. This is no different with autonomous vehicles. Despite the benefits that autonomous driving promises to bring with it, many people remain skeptical about letting a computer control a car. In recent years, numerous studies have therefore investigated when, how and why people would (or would not) be willing to make use of autonomous vehicles. This chapter gives an overview of the relevant scientific literature. After a summary of essential theoretical frameworks, the variables that were found by empirical research to predict or correlate with the acceptance of autonomous vehicles are organized into three categories: user-specific determinants (e.g., socio-demographics and personality traits), car-specific determinants (e.g., perceived safety, predictability and appearance), and contextual determinants (e.g., road conditions). Based on this review, limitations of previous work, open research questions and practical implications are discussed, which leads to the ultimate conclusion that the obstacles on the road to autonomous mobility are not merely technical, but also psychological.
This study synthesizes 91 peer-reviewed survey studies examining the public acceptance of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). The framework of the study is informed by three questions: (1) How well do the collected samples represent the acceptance of the general population? (2) How often does bias exist in measuring public acceptance in AV’s questionnaires? (3) How much bias persists in reporting public acceptance of AV’s research? The findings indicate that (1) people with disabilities and racial minorities are only included in 10% and 20% of the studies, respectively (2) 50% of the studies present their questionnaire, and most are perceived to be biased as a result of systematic errors such as leading questions, missing questions, and suggestive information, and (3) 72% of the studies suffer from the sentiment bias, where the positive tone in the title and abstract is more significant than in the result. This leads to imprecise findings and unrealistic depictions of acceptance of autonomous vehicles by the public. The analysis alerts researchers and practitioners to empirical evidence of bias in public acceptance of autonomous vehicles and recommends preventive actions.
The factors affecting the acceptance of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) in Saudi Arabia were examined by conducting a stated choice survey among 500 participants. Descriptive analysis showed that the participants believed that using AVs will decrease the risk of car crashes and help them safely reach their destination. Parametric analysis and prediction models showed a wide variation in public opinion regarding willingness to use AVs, despite an average high score on this factor. The study found that the trust in AVs was low, and women favored AVs more than men. Prediction models showed that age, trust, and being tech-savvy determine the willingness to use AVs. As younger participants had a high willingness to use AVs, we recommended focusing on changing the perception of older drivers to increase overall AV acceptance by increasing their trust in this new technology and highlighting the features of AVs. From the findings of this study, it is expected that wide-scale adoption of AV depends upon its competitiveness with the traditional and its performance in terms of enhancing road safety.
Introduction:
This research systematically reviewed relevant studies on users' acceptance of conditional (Level 3) to full (Level 5) automated vehicles when such vehicles are to be used privately (herein referred to as 'private automated vehicles or private AVs).
Method:
The search followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, and was undertaken in three databases: APA PsycINFO, Transport Research International Documentation, and Web of Science. Articles were required to focus on individuals' acceptance of private SAE Level 3-5 AVs. Acceptance was defined as individuals' attitudes towards or intentions and/or willingness to use AVs in the future. A total of 2,354 articles were identified in the database search. Thirty-five articles were included in the review, six of which included multiple studies and/or comparison groups.
Results:
Most studies (n = 31) applied self-reported measures to assess user acceptance together with a range of psychosocial factors predicting such acceptance. The meta-analytic correlations revealed that perceived behavioral control, perceived benefits/usefulness, perceived ease of use, and subjective/social norms had significant positive pooled relationships with attitudes and intentions. Trust and sensation seeking also had significant positive pooled correlations with intentions, while knowledge of AVs had a significant and negative pooled correlation with intentions. Age did not show any significant pooled relationship with attitudes, intentions, or willingness.
Conclusions:
The findings obtained from the systematic review and meta-analysis provide support for psychosocial models to aid understanding of users' acceptance of private AVs. Practical applications: Examining acceptance of AVs after participants have experienced these vehicles on closed tracks or open roads would advance contemporary knowledge of users' intentions to use these vehicles in the future. Further, experiencing these vehicles firsthand may also help with addressing any perceived barriers reducing acceptance of future use of private AVs.
Over the last decade, the technology adopted for the automation of transportation has advanced at a pace that now the emergence of Autonomous Vehicles (AV’s) might not be as far away as it was thought a few years ago. However, the successful penetration of these vehicles in public roads will mainly rest upon their acceptance and adoption by individual road users and how they embrace this new generation of cars. This paper reports the results of a national survey study conducted among 475 Irish people to evaluate their interest in, and concerns about the adoption of AVs in their daily commute trends. The paper has also analysed people’s acceptance and Willingness to Pay (WTP) for AVs compared to Manually Driven Vehicles (MDVs). The results showed that people, in general, were not interested in driving AVs; only one-fifth of the population expressed a high level of interest. Concerns about recording data had an extreme and negative impact on interest since the majority of respondents were not ready to accept AVs' recording of data because of their concerns about privacy. People were also mostly unsure about or not likely to believe in the safety and security of AVs’ operation, and they were not at all willing to accept liability for AVs. In addition, the results revealed that cost substantially impacts people’s AV purchasing decisions, as when the cost was not an issue, people were much more interested in purchasing an AV.
Given the impending introduction of self-driving cars to Japan within the next several years, gaining a better understanding of public opinion and risk perception of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is crucial. Though AVs have numerous potential social and economic benefits, including reduced travel time and environmental impacts, their implementation will depend on public acceptance. This study expanded on existing work by directly examining which aspects of AV use and function most affect risk perception. Participants were shown short animated video clips depicting the introduction of AVs into society at large, as well as three specific possible risk factors: system error, external interference with car controls (i.e., hacking), and the inability of the car to cope with unexpected events. Participants were then surveyed about their attitudes toward AVs and other potentially risky activities and technologies. The study established that the perceived advantages of all AV types (cars and buses, different automation levels) outweighed their perceived risks. Consistent with prior research, the two major aspects of perceived risk were dread and unfamiliarity. The results showed compared with other technologies, AV scores were neutral for dread risk but higher for unfamiliarity risk. The finding of high unfamiliarity indicates that public acceptance and perceived risks are likely to change as the public's knowledge increases. We also found that receiving information about a potential system error indirectly reduced AV acceptability, where dread and unfamiliarity to the AV risks served as mediators. The results suggest that proper management on the diffusion of information, which includes public information campaigns, test-ride events and transparency about safety options, will likely influence the ultimate social acceptability of AVs and will be crucial towards its successful introduction on the market.
Connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) could become the most powerful mobility intervention in the history of human race; possibly greater than the conception of the wheel itself or the shift from horse-carriages to automobiles. Despite CAVs' likely traffic safety, economic, environmental, social inclusion and network performance benefits their full-scale implementation may not be as predictable, uncomplicated, acceptable and risk-free as it is often communicated by a large share of automotive industries, policy-makers and transport experts. Framing an 'unproven', 'disruptive' and 'life-changing' intervention, primarily based on its competitive advantages over today's conventional automobile technologies, may create misconceptions, overreaching expectations and room for errors that societies need to be cautious about. This article 'tests' eleven myths referring to an overly optimistic CAVs' development and adoption timeline. This approach highlights unresolved issues that need to be addressed before an inescapable CAV-based mobility paradigm transition takes place and provides relevant policy recommendations on how to achieve that.
Connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) could become the most
powerful mobility intervention in the history of human race; possibly greater than the conception of the wheel itself or the shift from horse-carriages to automobiles. Despite CAVs’ likely traffic safety, economic, environmental, social inclusion and network performance benefits their full-scale implementation may not be as predictable, uncomplicated, acceptable and risk-free as it is often communicated by a large share of automotive industries, policy-makers and transport experts. Framing an ‘unproven’, ‘disruptive’ and ‘life-changing’ intervention, primarily based on its competitive advantages over
today’s conventional automobile technologies, may create misconceptions, overreaching expectations and room for errors that societies need to be cautious about. This article ‘tests’ eleven myths referring to an overly optimistic CAVs’ development and adoption timeline. This approach highlights unresolved issues that need to be addressed before an inescapable CAV-based mobility paradigm
transition takes place and provides relevant policy recommendations on how to achieve that.
The development of electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous vehicles (AVs) has made great progress and been expected to play an important role in a future transport system. Some researchers have explored the potential impacts of autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs), while few have focused on the public attitude towards AEVs. This paper aims to understand the public acceptance of AEVs through the application of Technology Acceptance Model. Considering the potential environmental benefits of AEVs, this study concentrates on how environmental concern affects AEVs acceptance. Data is collected from an online survey in China and analyzed by a structural model. The results indicate that green perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use and environmental concern have a positive relationship with people’s intentions to use AEVs. Environmental concern poses a powerful indirect effect on using intention through mediating effects. Implications for improving the public acceptance of AEVs and suggestions for further research are given correspondingly in this study.
In this chapter I address three commonly misunderstood aspects of vehicle automation: capability, deployment, and connectivity. For each, I identify a myth pervading public discussion, provide a contradictory view common among experts, explain why that expert view is itself incomplete, and finally discuss the legal implications of this nuance. Although there are many more aspects that merit clarification, these three are linked because they suggest a shift in transportation from a product model to a service model, a point with which I conclude.
For the past hundred years, innovation within the automotive sector has created safer, cleaner, and more affordable vehicles, but progress has been incremental. The industry now appears close to substantial change, engendered by autonomous, or "self-driving," vehicle technologies. This technology offers the possibility of significant benefits to social welfare — saving lives; reducing crashes, congestion, fuel consumption, and pollution; increasing mobility for the disabled; and ultimately improving land use. This report is intended as a guide for state and federal policymakers on the many issues that this technology raises. After surveying the advantages and disadvantages of the technology, RAND researchers determined that the benefits of the technology likely outweigh the disadvantages. However, many of the benefits will accrue to parties other than the technology's purchasers. These positive externalities may justify some form of subsidy. The report also explores policy issues, communications, regulation and standards, and liability issues raised by the technology; and concludes with some tentative guidance for policymakers, guided largely by the principle that the technology should be allowed and perhaps encouraged when it is superior to an average human driver.
The definition of power, which is increasingly incorporated in sociological analyses, remains ambiguous. This paper attempts to elucidate the nature of power in two ways. First, the concept is explicated in terms of instrumental resources and infra-resources. The term "infra-resources" has been developed to incorporate perceptual and circumstantial aspects of power into theoretical analyses. Second, a strongly systematic orientation to power is developed in order to provide a sound theoretical basis for departures from static analyses of power and power-relevant phenomena.
Getting an innovation adopted is difficult; a common problem is increasing the rate of its diffusion. Diffusion is the communication of an innovation through certain channels over time among members of a social system. It is a communication whose messages are concerned with new ideas; it is a process where participants create and share information to achieve a mutual understanding. Initial chapters of the book discuss the history of diffusion research, some major criticisms of diffusion research, and the meta-research procedures used in the book. This text is the third edition of this well-respected work. The first edition was published in 1962, and the fifth edition in 2003. The book's theoretical framework relies on the concepts of information and uncertainty. Uncertainty is the degree to which alternatives are perceived with respect to an event and the relative probabilities of these alternatives; uncertainty implies a lack of predictability and motivates an individual to seek information. A technological innovation embodies information, thus reducing uncertainty. Information affects uncertainty in a situation where a choice exists among alternatives; information about a technological innovation can be software information or innovation-evaluation information. An innovation is an idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or an other unit of adoption; innovation presents an individual or organization with a new alternative(s) or new means of solving problems. Whether new alternatives are superior is not precisely known by problem solvers. Thus people seek new information. Information about new ideas is exchanged through a process of convergence involving interpersonal networks. Thus, diffusion of innovations is a social process that communicates perceived information about a new idea; it produces an alteration in the structure and function of a social system, producing social consequences. Diffusion has four elements: (1) an innovation that is perceived as new, (2) communication channels, (3) time, and (4) a social system (members jointly solving to accomplish a common goal). Diffusion systems can be centralized or decentralized. The innovation-development process has five steps passing from recognition of a need, through R&D, commercialization, diffusions and adoption, to consequences. Time enters the diffusion process in three ways: (1) innovation-decision process, (2) innovativeness, and (3) rate of the innovation's adoption. The innovation-decision process is an information-seeking and information-processing activity that motivates an individual to reduce uncertainty about the (dis)advantages of the innovation. There are five steps in the process: (1) knowledge for an adoption/rejection/implementation decision; (2) persuasion to form an attitude, (3) decision, (4) implementation, and (5) confirmation (reinforcement or rejection). Innovations can also be re-invented (changed or modified) by the user. The innovation-decision period is the time required to pass through the innovation-decision process. Rates of adoption of an innovation depend on (and can be predicted by) how its characteristics are perceived in terms of relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability. The diffusion effect is the increasing, cumulative pressure from interpersonal networks to adopt (or reject) an innovation. Overadoption is an innovation's adoption when experts suggest its rejection. Diffusion networks convey innovation-evaluation information to decrease uncertainty about an idea's use. The heart of the diffusion process is the modeling and imitation by potential adopters of their network partners who have adopted already. Change agents influence innovation decisions in a direction deemed desirable. Opinion leadership is the degree individuals influence others' attitudes
The 2009 edition of the "Digest of Education Statistics" is the 45th in a series of publications initiated in 1962. The "Digest" has been issued annually except for combined editions for the years 1977-78, 1983-84, and 1985-86. Its primary purpose is to provide a compilation of statistical information covering the broad field of American education from prekindergarten through graduate school. The "Digest" includes a selection of data from many sources, both government and private, and draws especially on the results of surveys and activities carried out by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). To qualify for inclusion in the "Digest", material must be nationwide in scope and of current interest and value. The publication contains information on a variety of subjects in the field of education statistics, including the number of schools and colleges, teachers, enrollments, and graduates, in addition to data on educational attainment, finances, federal funds for education, libraries, and international comparisons. Supplemental information on population trends, attitudes on education, education characteristics of the labor force, government finances, and economic trends provides background for evaluating education data. Although the "Digest" contains important information on federal education funding, more detailed information on federal activities is available from federal education program offices. The "Digest" contains seven chapters: All Levels of Education, Elementary and Secondary Education, Postsecondary Education, Federal Programs for Education and Related Activities, Outcomes of Education, International Comparisons of Education, and Libraries and Educational Technology. Preceding these chapters is an Introduction that provides a brief overview of current trends in American education, which supplements the tabular materials in chapters 1 through 7. The "Digest" concludes with three appendixes. Appendices include: (1) Guide to Sources; (2) Definitions; and (3) Index of Table Numbers. (Contains 29 figures and 442 tables.) [For the companion report, "Mini-Digest of Education Statistics, 2009", see ED509884. For the "Digest of Education Statistics, 2008", see ED504502.]
Gabriel Tarde (1843-1904) has given significant contributions to criminology, to social interaction theory and to diffusion. research. Diffusion refers to spreading of social or cultural properties from one society or environment to another. Tarde created his own system of sociology, based on psychology and de signed to explain the whole of social behaviour from development of cultures to acts of an individual. In his view social change requires penetration of inventions that diffuse through the process of imitation. People imitate beliefs and desires or motives transmitted from one individual to another. Analysis should take place on a micro-level with the method he called 'interpsychology'. Tarde refuted the idea of a social whole being more than its parts. He thought at least to some extent like a reductionist. Moreover, imitation as a social phenomenon was in Tarde's view not isolated from other activities in nature but a part of a universal law of repetition. His professional experiences in court apparently directed his interest towards criminology, affected his thinking about motives and about the level of analysis. Tarde's ontological ideas were soon disregarded largely due to the criticism presented by Emile Durkheim (1858-1916). However, Tarde made quite a few insightful and practical observations that have benefited diffusion research. Likewise, aspects similar to Tarde's thoughts concerning cultural evolution seem to interest modern scientists.
This article investigates transitions at the level of societal functions (e.g. transport, communication, housing). Societal functions are fulfilled by socio-technical systems, which consist of a cluster of aligned elements, e.g. artefacts, knowledge, user practices and markets, regulation, cultural meaning, infrastructure, maintenance networks and supply networks. To understand how transitions from one socio-technical system to another come about, the article describes a conceptual multi-level perspective. The perspective is illustrated with a historical case study: the transition from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles in the USA (1860–1930). The case study shows that technological substitution approaches to this transition are too simple, because they neglect the electric tram and bicycle, which acted as important stepping stones. The case study also corrects another mistake, namely that the gasoline car won by chance from steam and electric automobiles. It will be shown that particular niches played a crucial role in this competition, as well as the wider socio-technical context. The case study deviates on three points from the multi-level perspective. These deviations are used to conceptualize a particular transition pathway, called ‘de-alignment and re-alignment’.
A substitution model of technological change based upon a simple set of assumptions has been advanced. The mathematical form of the model is shown to fit existing data in a wide variety of substitutions remarkably well.It is suggested that the model can prove useful to a number of types of investigations, such as: forecasting technological opportunities, recognizing the onset of technologically based catastrophes, investigating the similarities and differences in innovative change in various economic sectors, investigating the rate of technical change in different countries and different cultures, and investigating the limiting features to technological change.
You Won’t Need a Driver’s License by 2040-CNN.com.” CNN. Cable News Network
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