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Digital Elevation Model (Dem) Based Hydrology Model for Arid, Hyper Arid Terrestrial and Martian Enviroment
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Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards. In 2018, three flash-flood episodes resulted in 46 casualties in the deserts of Israel and Jordan alone. This paper presents the hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a substantial storm (25–27 April 2018) that hit an arid desert basin (Zin, ∼1400km2, southern Israel) claiming 12 human lives. This paper aims to (a) spatially assess the severity of the storm, (b) quantify the timescale of the hydrological response, and (c) evaluate the available operational precipitation forecasting. Return periods of the storm's maximal rain intensities were derived locally at 1 km2 resolution using weather radar data and a novel statistical methodology. A high-resolution grid-based hydrological model was used to study the intra-basin flash-flood magnitudes which were consistent with direct information from witnesses. The model was further used to examine the hydrological response to different forecast scenarios. A small portion of the basin (1 %–20 %) experienced extreme precipitation intensities (75- to 100-year return period), resulting in a local hydrological response of a high magnitude (10- to 50-year return period). Hillslope runoff, initiated minutes after the intense rainfall occurred, reached the streams and resulted in peak discharge within tens of minutes. Available deterministic operational precipitation forecasts poorly predicted the hydrological response in the studied basins (tens to hundreds of square kilometers) mostly due to location inaccuracy. There was no gain from assimilating radar estimates in the numerical weather prediction model. Therefore, we suggest using deterministic forecasts with caution as it might lead to fatal decision making. To cope with such errors, a novel cost-effective methodology is applied by spatially shifting the forecasted precipitation fields. In this way, flash-flood occurrences were captured in most of the subbasins, resulting in few false alarms.
This work analysis an 81 km long 1.85 km wide fluvial valley on Mars (at 2°55’ South and 111°53’ East) for the first time, located near to the so-called Palos carter and Tinto Vallis, called Tinto-B hereafter. The length of the valley is approximately 81 km, and the average width is ~1.85 km, depth ~250 m. The hypsometric curves were created in 5 different buffer sizes on the main valley and the biggest tributary valley. The tributary valley shows a youth stage in the geomorphological evolution opposite to the main valley, which shows a mature stage. The crater statistical analysis based age of the main valley (2.9 Ga) poorly correlates with the early wet period of the red planet, thus, formed somehow later than most Martian valleys. Using the model SIMWE (SIMulated Water Erosion), for the to identify the small-scaled tributary valley systems and the small-scaled erosional landforms showed area elevated drainage density. The highest density of the tributary sections is 29.02 km/km2 , and the average is 3.09 km/km2. Considering only the main valley 0.017 km/km2 would have been measured, suggesting dozen(s) early tributaries were heavily eroded.
The differences in the evolution of rivers on Earth and on Titan are investigated. Dynamical analysis of the rivers was performed using a numerical package CCHE2D developed by the National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering, University of Mississippi. The model is based on the Navier-Stokes equations for depth-integrated two-dimensional turbulent flow and the three-dimensional convection-diffusion equation of sediment transport. The model enables investigation of the evolution of rivers as a function of total discharge and other parameters of the river. Series of short (from one to several hours) and long (up to 67 days) simulations were performed. We have found that three different liquid hydrocarbons considered for Titan’s rivers give similar velocity fields. It was also found that the suspended load is the main means of transport in Titan’s rivers, while in terrestrial ones, for the same discharge, the bedload could be of the same order as suspended load. Moreover, we suppose that for specific boundary conditions, the evolution of rivers on the Earth promotes the development of braided rivers, while for the same conditions evolution on Titan favours regular meandering rivers.
This paper summarizes state-of-the-art models for water flow and sediment transport and suggests implications for the sediment grain size distribution, transport process, and delta formation. The flow velocity in Martian outflow channels is commonly calculated from the Manning equation, which is dimensionally incorrect and masks the large uncertainty of the reconstructed flow velocity. More modern friction predictors based on surface grain size distribution are tested on 190 rivers on Earth including moderately catastrophic events. The uncertainty for the flow velocity is a factor of 3-4. The sediment transport is commonly assumed to amount to 40% of the water flux (hyperconcentration), but this is only true for special conditions. A debris-flow origin of the channels is unlikely. Application of modern sediment transport models to typical Martian conditions indicates orders of magnitude smaller sediment fluxes dominated by bed load transport, resulting in much larger timescales for sediment emplacement in crater lake deltas and in the potential northern ocean. This is in part caused by the unexpected grain size distribution of the sediment derived from observations of landers and of delta morphologies. The implied duration of hydrological activity and channel and delta formation is of the order of 103-106 years, which is still very short on the geological timescale of Mars.
The progressive degradation and loss of impact craters throughout the Noachian Period on Mars indicate prolonged erosion, rather than only a brief spike around the Noachian/Hesperian transition. The purpose of this study is to determine which suite(s) of geomorphic processes and rates best reproduce the relict Noachian landscape. We modeled the evolution of two study areas in the Martian highlands, Noachis Terra and Terra Cimmeria, to constrain the long-term erosional processes and rates that prevailed ~4.0–3.7 Ga, before the valley networks formed. Our model runs indicate a very low erosion rate and inefficient runoff production during the Middle and Late Noachian Epochs. The terrestrial equivalent of 2 and 1.5 Myr worth of erosional work under arid to semiarid conditions with inefficient runoff production was required in order to replicate the landscape at Noachis Terra and Terra Cimmeria, respectively, over ~300 Myr. Low areas in the landscape filled with sediments, while mass wasting and fluvial erosion were focused on crater rims and interior walls. The surface characteristics that best reproduce the observed landscape are a bedrock weathering rate around 0.0005–0.001 m/year with regolith that is 100 times more erodible than bedrock, suggesting that impact comminution and aqueous weathering produced abundant transportable material on Noachian Mars. The simulation results suggest that the Noachian paleoclimate was more arid than around the Noachian/Hesperian transition, but it supported occasional precipitation (snow or rain) that weathered surface materials and transported sediments.
Manning’s roughness coefficient (n) has a significant impact on routing in hydrological models. However, computational methods for dynamic roughness coefficients are of little concern in current research. Few studies have produced spatial-temporal distributions of the roughness coefficients in basins. In this study, a formula to calculate the n value was established based on a statistical analysis of estimated n values by Manning’s formula. The routing model of a distributed hydrological model was then improved using the new formula to calculate n. The roughness coefficient is not a constant; instead, it changes dynamically with changes in water depth and vegetation in the improved hydrological model. The improved model was applied to the Yellow River basin. The results show that using dynamic n can improve the streamflow simulation of hydrological models, especially on slopes. The dynamic spatial-temporal distribution of n can now be used in other models.
On the basis of the Manning equation and basic mass conservation principles, we derive an expression for scaling the steady-state width (W) of river channels as a function of discharge (Q), channel slope (S), roughness (n), and width-to-depth ratio (alpha): W = [alpha(alpha + 2)2/3]3/8Q3/8S-3/16n3/8. We propose that channel width-to-depth ratio, in addition to roughness, is a function of the material in which the channel is developed, and that where a river is confined to a given material, width-to-depth ratio and roughness can be assumed constant. Given these simplifications, the expression emulates traditional width-discharge relationships for rivers incising bedrock with uniformly concave fluvial long profiles. More significantly, this relationship describes river width trends in terrain with spatially nonuniform rock uplift rates, where conventional discharge-based width scaling laws are inadequate. We suggest that much of observed channel width variability in river channels confined by bedrock is a simple consequence of the tendency for water to flow faster in steeper reaches and therefore occupy smaller channel cross sections. We demonstrate that using conventional scaling relationships for channel width can result in underestimation of stream-power variability in channels incising bedrock and that our model improves estimates of spatial patterns of bedrock incision rates.
Stochastic linear models are fitted to hydrologic data for two main
reasons: to enable forecasts of the data one or more time periods ahead
and to enable the generation of sequences of synthetic data. These
techniques are of considerable importance to the design and operation of
water resource systems. Short sequences of data lead to uncertainties in
the estimation of model parameters and to doubts about the
appropriateness of particular time series models. A premium is placed on
models that are economical in terms of the number of parameters
required. One such family of models is multiplicative seasonal
autoregressive integrated moving average (Arima) models that have been
described by G. E. P. Box and G. M. Jenkins. In this paper we illustrate
the process of identifying the particular member of the family that fits
logarithms of monthly flows, estimating the parameters, and checking the
fit. The seasonal Arima model accounts for the seasonal variability in
the monthly means but not the seasonal variability of the monthly
standard deviations: for this reason its value is limited. The
forecasting of flows one or more months ahead is described with an
example.
Land surface topography significantly affects the processes of runoff and erosion. A system which determines slope, aspect, and curvature in both the down-slope and across-slope directions is developed for an altitude matrix. Also, the upslope drainage area and maximum drainage distance are determined for every point within the altitude matrix. A FORTRAN 66 program performs the analysis.
A path sampling method is proposed for solving the continuity equations describing mass flows over complex landscape surfaces. The modeled quantities are represented by an ensemble of sampling points which are evolved according to the corresponding Green function. The method enables incorporation of multi-scale/multi-process treatments. It has been used to develop simulation tools for overland shallow water flow and for sediment transport. The spatial pattern of sediment flow and net erosion/deposition is modeled using the closure relationship between sediment transport capacity and detachment developed for the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project. The tools were recently implemented as modules in Open Source GRASS GIS. Their application is illustrated by the study of impact of land use and topography change on overland flow and sediment transport at North Carolina State University campus.
at the Hwang-do Tidal Flat
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Witek, P. P., & Czechowski, L. L. (2014). Comparison of processes of river delta formation on
448
Titan and Earth. EPSC Abstracts, 9, 0-1.