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How important is mobile broadband latency for total factor productivity growth?
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between the log change in mobile broadband latency and total factor productivity (TFP) growth based on data for 130 countries. It finds that there is a strong correlation between TFP growth and one year lag of latency growth once controlling for the growth of labor and capital services in OECD countries. The interpretation of the findings is that a 10 percentage points decrease in the growth of latency in period t-1 is associated with an increase of 0.3 percentage points in TFP growth. The findings are in accordance with the framework of general purpose technologies that suggests that the impact of new technologies often appear with a lag. Moreover, no relationship is found for non-OECD countries, which suggest that it is only OECD countries that are able to take advantage of the benefits of lower latency. One possible explanation could be that OECD countries have reached a higher maturity in digitalization and automation in production processes and thus are able to take advantage of the benefits of lower latency.
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Based on panel data of 116 countries in 2014–2019, this paper investigates the association between mobile broadband speed and labor productivity. It finds no robust contemporaneous relationship for the total sample, but there is a significant and robust association when a one-year lag of mobile broadband speed is introduced. The interpretation of the results is that a 10 percent increase in mobile broadband speed in period t-1 is associated with 0.2 percent increase in labor productivity, ceteris paribus. The results are only robust for non-OECD and low-income countries, respectively.
This paper conducts a comprehensive literature survey of the papers that examine the link between ICT and economic growth. Using a rigorous screening framework, we found 208 academic papers that were published from 1991 to the cutoff date of October 30, 2018. This survey provides a robust set of insights into the distribution, research strategies, and findings of the surveyed papers, taking into account their geographic focus and type of ICT-growth links. This study also reveals the key factors that predict the citation impact by paper. Among the directions for future research, this paper argues that the time has come for the research on the ICT-growth link to shift its main focus from evidencing its positive relationship to advancing the understanding on why and how emerging digital technologies directly or indirectly affect economic performance.
Is the world on the cusp of a fourth industrial revolution driven by technological developments in ICT including artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things (IoT)? This paper focuses on IoT and how it might affect economic growth. We attempt to gauge the potential impact of IoT using: (1) regressions based on current IoT data; and (2) longer run estimates of growth accounting parameters based on those observed in a previous wave of the ICT-revolution. We find that: (a) according to definitions in the literature, IoT is an innovational complementarity to ICT; (b) early data already suggest an economically and statistically significant correlation between IoT connections and TFP growth, implying that an increase of 10 percentage points in the growth of IoT connections per inhabitant is associated with a 0.23 percentage points increase in TFP growth; (c) longer run predictions of the IoT contribution based on a growth-accounting framework suggest a potential global annual average contribution to growth of 0.99% per annum (pa) in 2018–2030, approximately $849 billion pa of world GDP in 2018 prices.
Does X affect Y? Answering this question is particularly difficult if reverse causality is looming. Many social scientists turn to panel data to address such questions of causal ordering. Yet even in longitudinal analyses, reverse causality threatens causal inference based on conventional panel models. Whereas the methodological literature has suggested various alternative solutions, these approaches face many criticisms, chief among them to be sensitive to the correct specification of temporal lags. Applied researchers are thus left with little guidance. Seeking to provide such guidance, we compare how different panel models perform under a range of different conditions. Our Monte Carlo simulations reveal that unlike conventional panel models, a cross-lagged panel model with fixed effects not only offers protection against bias arising from reverse causality under a wide range of conditions but also helps to circumvent the problem of misspecified temporal lags.
To meet the diverse industrial and market demands, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has classified the fifth-generation (5G) into ultra-reliable low latency communications (URLLC), enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), and massive machine-type communications (mMTC). Researchers conducted studies to achieve the implementation of the mentioned distributions efficiently, within the available spectrum. This paper aims to highlight the importance of URLLC in accordance with the approaching era of technology and industry requirements. While highlighting a few implementation issues of URLLC, concerns for the Internet of things (IoT) devices that depend on the low latency and reliable communications of URLLC are also addressed. In this paper, the recent progress of 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) standardization and the implementation of URLLC are included. Finally, the research areas that are open for further investigation in URLLC implementation are highlighted, and efficient implementation of URLLC is discussed.
Numerous studies have documented the contribution of ICT to growth. Less has been done on the contribution of communications technology, the “C” in ICT. We construct an international dataset of fourteen OECD countries and present contributions to growth for each ICT asset (IT hardware, CT equipment and software) using alternative ICT deflators. Using each country’s deflator we find that the contribution of CT capital deepening to productivity growth is lower in the EU than the US. Thus we ask: is that lower contribution due to a lower rate of CT investment or differing sources and methods for measurement of price change? We find that: (a) there are still considerable disparities in measures of ICT price change across countries; (b) in terms of growth-accounting, price harmonisation has a greater impact on the measured contributions of IT hardware and software in the EU relative to the US, than that of CT equipment; over 1996–2013, harmonising investment prices explains just 15% of the gap in the EU CT contribution relative to the US, compared to 25% for IT hardware; (c) over 1996–2013, CT capital deepening accounted for 0.11% pa (6% as a share) of labour productivity growth (LPG) in the US, compared to 0.03% pa (2.5% of LPG) in the EU-13 when using national accounts deflators; and (d) using OECD harmonised deflators, the figure for the EU-13 is raised to 0.04% pa (4% of LPG).
A number of studies have indicated that higher broadband penetration leads to greater economic impacts. Nevertheless other characteristics of broadband services such as different speeds are becoming more important to determine the economic impacts. This study estimates the relationship between broadband speed and economic outputs. The results show that broadband speed contributes positively to economic outputs such as GDP. The effects of broadband speed are also greater in countries with lower income. The policy recommendation is therefore that countries should focus on and encourage high speed broadband infrastructure and its adoption in their national broadband plans and policies.
We provide a structured overview of the quantitative research on the economic impacts of broadband internet. Differentiating between wireline and wireless technologies as well as broadband availability and broadband adoption, respectively, we review studies investigating the impacts on economic growth, employment and regional development as well as productivity and firm performance. Eventually, the survey does not only allow the identification of main research gaps but also provides useful information for policy makers on the significance and importance of communication networks for social welfare.
We analyze the effect of ICT and R&D on total factor productivity (TFP) growth across different industries in Sweden. R&D alone is significantly associated with contemporaneous TFP growth, thus exhibiting indirect effects. Although there is no significant short-run association between ICT and TFP, we find a positive association with a lag of seven to eight years. Thus, R&D affect TFP much faster than ICT-investments. We also divide ICT capital into hardware and software capital. To our knowledge, this distinction has not been made in any previous study analyzing TFP at the industry level. The results show that lagged hardware capital services growth is significantly associated with TFP growth. Hence, investments complementary to hardware are needed to reap the long-run TFP effects from reorganizing production.
What has been the quantitative effect on productivity growth of information and communication technology (ICT) in Europe after
1995? Based on a multi-country sectoral panel data set, the authors provide econometric evidence of positive and significant
productivity effects of ICT in Europe, mainly due to advances in total factor productivity. The impact of ICT in Europe has
happened against a negative macro economic shock not related to ICT. This is in contrast to the established evidence for the
US. Our main results challenge the consensus in the growth-accounting literature that there has been no acceleration of productivity
growth in Europe, mainly due to a dismal performance of ICT-using sectors.
US productivity growth accelerated after 1995 (unlike Europe's), particularly in sectors that intensively use information technologies (IT). Using two new micro panel datasets we show that US multinationals operating in Europe also experienced a "productivity miracle." US multinationals obtained higher productivity from IT than non-US multinationals, particularly in the same sectors responsible for the US productivity acceleration. Furthermore, establishments taken over by US multinationals (but not by non-US multinationals) increased the productivity of their IT. Combining pan-European firm-level IT data with our management practices survey, we find that the US IT related productivity advantage is primarily due to its tougher "people management" practices. (JEL D24, E23, F23, M10, M16, O30)
From book synopsis:
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
This study consists of an examination of productivity growth following three major technological breakthroughs: the steam power revolution, electrification and the ICT revolution. The distinction between sectors producing and sectors using the new technology is emphasized. A major finding for all breakthroughs is that there is a long lag from the time of the original invention until a substantial increase in the rate of productivity growth can be observed. There is also strong evidence of rapid price decreases for steam engines, electricity, electric motors and ICT products. However, there is no persuasive direct evidence that the steam engine producing industry and electric machinery had particularly high productivity growth rates. For the ICT revolution the highest productivity growth rates are found in the ICT-producing industries. We suggest that one explanation could be that hedonic price indexes are not used for the steam engine and the electric motor. Still, it is likely that the rate of technological development has been much more rapid during the ICT revolution compared to any of the previous breakthroughs.
Since the mid-1990s, labor productivity growth in Europe has significantly slowed compared to earlier decades. In contrast, labor productivity growth in the United States accelerated, so that a new productivity gap has opened up. This paper shows that this development is attributable to the slower emergence of the knowledge economy in Europe. We consider various explanations which are not mutually exclusive. These include lower growth contributions from investment in information and communication technology; the small share of information and communications technology–producing industries in Europe; and slower multifactor productivity growth, which proxies for advances in technology and innovation. Underlying these are issues related to the functioning of European labor markets and the high level of product market regulation in Europe. The paper emphasizes the key role of market service sectors in accounting for the productivity growth divergence between the two regions. We argue that improved productivity growth in Europe's market services will be needed to avoid a further widening of the productivity gap.
Whole eras of technical progress and growth appear to be driven by a few 'General Purpose Technologies' (GPT's), such as the steam engine, the electric motor, and semiconductors. GPT's are characterized by pervasiveness, inherent potential for technical improvements, and 'innovational complementarities', giving rise to increasing returns-to-scale. However, a decentralized economy will have difficulty in fully exploiting the growth opportunities of GPT's: arms-length market transactions between the GPT and its users may result in 'too little, too late' innovation. Likewise, difficulties in forecasting the technological developments of the other side can lower the rate of technical advance of all sectors.
Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips stock price has been predicted using the difference between core and headline CPI in the United States. Linear trends in the CPI difference allow accurate prediction of the prices at a five to ten-year horizon.
During the four years 1995-99 U. S. productivity growth experienced a strong revival and achieved growth rates exceeding that of the "golden age" of 1913-72. Accordingly many observers have declared the "New Economy" (the Internet and the accompanying acceleration of technical change in computers and telecommunications) to be an Industrial Revolution equal in importance, or even more important, than the Second Industrial Revolution of 1860-1900 which gave us electricity, motor and air transport, motion pictures, radio, indoor plumbing, and made the golden age of productivity growth possible. This paper raises doubts about the validity of this comparison with the Great Inventions of the past. It dissects the recent productivity revival and separates the revival of 1.35 percentage points (comparing 1995-99 with 1972-95) into 0.54 of an unsustainable cyclical effect and 0.81 points of acceleration in trend growth. The entire trend acceleration is attributed to faster multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth in the durable manufacturing sector, consisting of computers, peripherals, telecommunications, and other types of durables. There is no revival of productivity growth in the 88 percent of the private economy lying outside of durables; in fact when the contribution of massive investment in computers in the nondurable economy is subtracted, MFP growth outside of durables has actually decelerated.
Broadband infrastructure underpins the development of the digital economy and has a significant impact on firm operations. However, the effect of broadband infrastructure on firm productivity have been rarely studied. By using the enforcement of the "Broadband China" strategy as an exogenous shock, this study investigated the effect of broadband infrastructure on firm productivity. A significant positive effect of broadband infrastructure on firm productivity was identified. It is further shown that information development, reallocation efficiency, innovation promotion and transaction cost reduction were four rational mechanisms through which broadband infrastructure enhances firm productivity. Finally, our findings were more pronounced for non-state-owned enterprises, highly capital-intensive firms and capital-strapped firms. Overall, this study provides insights into broadband infrastructure for enhancing firm productivity in developing countries.
The literature on the effects of investment in broadband infrastructure finds positive macroeconomic effects. However, it is severely constrained because it could hitherto only analyse investment or adoption up to basic broadband, but not up to the newer generations of hybrid fibre and end‐to‐end fibre‐based broadband. Utilizing a comprehensive panel dataset of EU27 member states for the period from 2003 to 2015, we estimate a small but significant effect of end‐to‐end fibre‐based broadband adoption over and above the effects of basic broadband on GDP; specifically, we find that a 1 per cent increase in adoption leads to an incremental increase of 0.002–0.005 per cent in GDP. The incremental effect of hybrid fibre broadband adoption over basic broadband is slightly lower (0.002–0.003%). Our cost‐benefit analysis implies that policy intervention – as foreseen by the European Commission – is only justified for coverage and adoption levels of around 50 per cent, whereas for a 100 per cent coverage level net losses are likely.
Since the beginning of the 21st century mobile broadband has diffused very rapidly in many countries around the world. This paper investigates to what extent the diffusion of mobile broadband has impacted economic development in terms of GDP. The study is based on data for 135 countries (90 countries once controlling for capital, employment and human capital) for the period 2002–2014. The results show that there is a statistically significant effect from mobile broadband on GDP both when mobile broadband is first introduced and gradually as mobile broadband diffuses throughout different economies. Based on a two stage model we are able to conclude that on average a 10 percent increase of mobile broadband adoption causes a 0.8 percent increase in GDP. Moreover, once we control for the years since mobile broadband was introduced, we find that the economic effect gradually decreases over time. For the country with median average growth of mobile broadband penetration, this implies that the economic effect has disappeared 6 years after introduction (if introduction is defined as a mobile penetration of 1 percent).
This paper analyzes the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on economic growth in developing, emerging and developed countries. The main question is whether the gains from investments in ICT differ between developing, emerging and developed countries. The analysis is based on a high-quality sample of 59 countries for the period 1995–2010. Various panel data regressions confirm the previously reported positive relationship between ICT capital and GDP growth. For the combined sample of all 59 countries, the estimated output elasticity of ICT is larger than the ICT factor compensation share suggesting excess returns to ICT capital. The regressions for the subsamples of developing, emerging and developed countries do not reveal statistically significant differences in the output elasticity of ICT between these three groups of countries. Thus, the results indicate that developing and emerging countries are not gaining more from investments in ICT than developed economies, calling into question the argument that these countries are ‘leapfrogging’ through ICT.
It is now widely recognized that information technology (IT) was critical to the dramatic acceleration of U.S. labor productivity growth in the mid-1990s. This paper traces the evolution of productivity estimates to document how and when this perception emerged. Early studies concluded that IT was relatively unimportant. It was only after the massive IT investment boom of the late 1 990s that this investment and underlying productivity increases in the IT-producing sectors were identified as important sources of growth. Although IT has diminished in significance since the dot-com crash of 2000, we project that private sector productivity growth will average around 2.5 percent per year for the next decade, a pace that is only moderately below the average for the 1995-2005 period.
The growth of U.S. labor productivity rebounded in the second half of the 1990s, after nearly a quarter century of sluggish gains. We assess the contribution of information technology to this rebound, using the same neoclassical framework as in our earlier work. We find that a surge in the use of information technology capital and faster efficiency gains in the production of computers account for about two-thirds of the speed-up in productivity growth between the first and second halves of the 1990s. Thus, to answer the question posed in the title of the paper, information technology largely is the story.
The recent change in the general social survey (GSS) to a rotating panel design is a landmark development for social scientists. Sociological methodologists have argued that fixed-effects (FE) models are generally the best starting point for analyzing panel data because they allow analysts to control for unobserved time-constant heterogeneity. We review these treatments and demonstrate the advantages of FE models in the context of the GSS. We also show, however, that FE models have two rarely tested assumptions that can seriously bias parameter estimates when violated. We provide simple tests for these assumptions. We further demonstrate that FE models are extremely sensitive to the correct specification of temporal lags. We provide a simulation and a proof to show that the use of incorrect lags in FE models can lead to coefficients that are the opposite sign of the true parameter values.
A common practice in applied economics research consists of replacing a suspected simultaneously determined explanatory variable with its lagged value. This note demonstrates that this practice does not enable one to avoid simultaneity bias. The associated estimates are still inconsistent, and hypothesis testing is invalid. An alternative is to use lagged values of the endogenous variable in instrumental variable estimation. However, this is only an effective estimation strategy if the lagged values do not themselves belong in the respective estimating equation, and if they are sufficiently correlated with the simultaneously determined explanatory variable.
Broadband adoption and its applications have been found to affect economic growth, innovativeness, political representation and individual welfare. As such, network infrastructures are now central in the political agenda with modern economies largely dependent on the vast spillover effects of information services. The European Commission has set out its targets to improve the Union’s infrastructure by 2020 and provide high quality services to all citizens. This effort entails a front-loaded high-risk investment – both in terms of technology uncertainty and the rate of adoption – making it unlikely to materialize without significant subsidies. In this paper we attempt to estimate the net benefits of the implementation of the Broadband Digital Agenda. Using a structural model we first estimate the broadband infrastructure returns for the period 2005-2011, differentiating the impact of broadband by levels of adoption and speed while taking into account the effects of reverse causality and extensive heterogeneity. We further extrapolate the individualized returns by country using different scenarios of implementation. In doing so, we utilize the most detailed sample on the total infrastructure cost requirements depending on demography, technology choice and network reuse. Effectively we monetize the conceptual policy goals, acknowledging the degrees of uncertainty within this attempt. We finally estimate the required investment and subsidies by country and the cumulative and net gains by different implementation approach.
Broadband telecommunication service is growing rapidly and its economic impact is likely to vary considerably around the globe. Considerable interest is being shown in wireless broadband, especially in low income and rural areas. This study focuses on the direct effect (broadband penetration as an input), and separately, the productive efficiency effect of broadband (as an information network externality), using a model developed in Thompson and Garbacz (2007). Aggregate fixed and mobile broadband usage and their effect are analyzed and compared first on a sample of forty-three countries with sufficient data. The same models are used on samples of high income and low income countries. It is hypothesized that the rapid growth of broadband could have a stronger effect for low income countries and their initial levels of network development. Key variables are adjusted to a per household basis, using information on household size. Due to the endogeneity of key variables, instrumental variables are employed to estimate separate equations for mobile broadband and fixed broadband. Predicted values for these variables are used in the final equations in order to adjust for endogeneity and omitted variable bias. The results of the model estimated for the full sample indicate that mobile broadband has an important direct effect on GDP, but fixed broadband has an effect no different than zero. In the models with high and low income samples it is apparent that low income countries derive significantly more benefit from mobile broadband. Estimates from the Stochastic Frontier Model find mobile broadband to be a significant driver of growth via a reduction of inefficiency.
Aggregate, industry, and firm level studies all point to a strong connection between information technology (IT) and the U.S. productivity revival in the late 1990s. At the aggregate level, growth accounting studies show a large and growing contribution to productivity growth from both the production and the use of IT. At the industry level, industries that produce or use IT most intensively have shown the largest increases in productivity growth after 1995. At the firm level, IT-intensive firms show better performance than their peers, and several specific case studies show how IT improves real business practices. This accumulation of evidence from a variety of studies suggests a real productivity impact from IT.
We estimate the effect of broadband infrastructure, which enables high-speed internet, on economic growth in the panel of OECD countries in 1996-2007. Our instrumental-variable model derives its non-linear first stage from a logistic diffusion model where pre-existing voice-telephony and cable-TV networks predict maximum broadband penetration. We find that a 10 percentage-point increase in broadband penetration raises annual per-capita growth by 0.9-1.5 percentage points. Results are robust to country and year fixed effects and controlling for linear second-stage effects of our instruments. We verify that our instruments predict broadband penetration but not diffusion of contemporaneous technologies like mobile telephony and computers.
Many people point to information and communications technology (ICT) as the key for understanding the acceleration in productivity in the United States since the mid-1990s. Stories of ICT as a ‘general-purpose technology’ suggest that measured total factor productivity (TFP) should rise in ICT-using sectors (reflecting either unobserved accumulation of intangible organizational capital; spillovers; or both), but with a long lag. Contemporaneously, however, investments in ICT may be associated with lower TFP as resources are diverted to reorganization and learning. We find that US industry results are consistent with general-purpose technology (GPT) stories: the acceleration after the mid-1990s was broad-based – located primarily in ICT-using industries rather than ICT-producing industries. Furthermore, industry TFP accelerations in the 2000s are positively correlated with (appropriately weighted) industry ICT capital growth in the 1990s. Indeed, as GPT stories would suggest, after controlling for past ICT investment, industry TFP accelerations are negatively correlated with increases in ICT usage in the 2000s.
The shift from steam to electric power in manufacturing is recounted. Between 1880 and 1930 the production and distribution of mechanical power rapidly evolved from water and steam prime movers with shaft and belt drive systems to electric motors that drove individual machines. The use of electricity reduced the energy required to drive machinery, but more important, enabled industry to obtain greater output per unit of capital and labor input.Reduced energy needs and increased productivity in manufacturing influenced the relationship between energy consumption and gross national product in the first three decades of the twentieth century.
Using annual data from 192 countries over the period 1990–2007, we assess the impact of mobile telecommunications on economic growth. We find that this impact is smaller for countries with a low mobile penetration, usually low income countries. While in low income countries the mobile telecommunications contribution to annual GDP growth is 0.11%, for high income countries this is 0.20%. The increasing returns from mobile adoption are also emerging when assessing the impact on productivity growth. To promote mobile telecommunications penetration liberalization policies along with appropriate regulatory frameworks are recommended. Such policies should be pursued more forcefully in cases where serious shortcomings exist.
— Harald Gruber and Pantelis Koutroumpis
This paper analyzes and extends the growing econometric literature on the economic impact of information technology (IT). I begin with a "meta-analysis" to systematically examine the results of twenty empirical studies and show that much of the observed variation in estimates of the output elasticity of IT is predictable and due to differences in model specification and econometric technique. Using a single dataset for U.S. industries, I then find similar variation across alternative specifications and estimation methods. Most results show a productivity effect from IT-use, but the point estimate of the elasticity is fragile and depends on the details of the estimation.
Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change, but our estimates suggest that as much as 3 trillion of business intangible capital stock. To assess the importance of this omission, we add intangible capital to the standard sources-of-growth framework used by the BLS, and find that the inclusion of our list of intangible assets makes a significant difference in the observed patterns of U.S. economic growth. The rate of change of output per worker increases more rapidly when intangibles are counted as capital, and capital deepening becomes the unambiguously dominant source of growth in labor productivity. The role of multifactor productivity is correspondingly diminished, and labor's income share is found to have decreased significantly over the last 50 years. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation International Association for Research in Income and Wealth 2009.
In this paper we investigate how telecommunications infrastructure affects economic growth. This issue is important and has received considerable attention in the popular press concerning the creation of the "information superhighway" and its potential impacts on the economy. We use evidence from 21 OECD countries over the past twenty years to examine the impacts that telecommunications developments may have had. We estimate a structural model which endogenizes telecommunication investment by specifying a micro-model of supply and demand for telecommunication investments. The micromodel is then jointly estimated with the macro-growth equation. After controlling for country-specific fixed effects, we find evidence of a positive causal link, provided that a critical mass of telecommunication infrastructure is present.
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Telekommunikations-Infrastruktur und Wirtschaftsentwicklung: Ein simultanes Modell)
In diesem Beitrag wird untersucht, welchen Einfluß die Telekommunikations-Infrastruktur auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung ausübt. Diese wichtige Frage hat im Zusammenhang mit der Diskussion um "Informationsautobahnen" Aktualität erlangt. In der vorliegenden Studie wird der Einfluß der Telekommunikations-Infrastruktur für 21 OECDLänder für die vergangenen 20 Jahre analysiert. Es wird ein Strukturgleichungsmodell geschätzt, in dem Investitionen in die Telekommunikations-Infrastruktur als endogene Variable erfaßt werden und in einem Mikromodell Angebot und Nachfrage nach Telekommunikations- Investitionen spezifiziert werden. Das Mikromodell wird dann zusammen mit der Makro- Wachstumsgleichung geschätzt. Als Ergebnis stellen die Autoren dann eine positive Kausalbeziehung zwischen Telekommunikations-Investitionen und wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung fest, wenn eine kritische Masse an Telekommunikations- Infrastruktur existiert.
Some observers have raised the possibility that production spillovers and network effects associated with information and communications technology (ICT) are an important part of the "New Economy." Across U.S. manufacturing industries, however, ICT capital appears correlated with the acceleration of average labor productivity (ALP) growth as predicted by a standard production model, but not with total factor productivity (TFP) growth as these New Economy forces imply. Once one allows for productivity differences across industries, measured TFP growth is uncorrelated with all capital inputs, including ICT capital. This provides little evidence for a New Economy story of ICT-related spillovers or network effects driving TFP growth throughout U.S. manufacturing. Copyright 2002 by The International Association for Research in Income and Wealth.
Was 1974 a watershed? It was dawning of the information age, a period of rapid technological advance associated with the introduction of information technologies. It also was the start of a sharp rise in income inequality and signaled the beginning of the productivity slowdown. Were these phenomena related? Could they have been the result of an Industrial Revolution associated with the introduction of information technologies? The answer offered here is yes, and a simple theory connecting the phenomena is outlined. Evidence is presented showing that the coincidence of rapid technological change, widening inequality, and slowdowns in productivity growth are not with out precedence in economic history. Just as the steam engine shook 18th century England, and electricity rattled 19th century America, it is argued that information technologies are rocking the 20th century economy.
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