US state-wise VAERS COVID19 injecon death rate predict state-wise 2021 excess all cause mortality rate
Results suggest that 2021 excess all cause mortality is mainly or at least to large extents due to secondary eects of
For the USA, total all cause mortality increased by 613779 deaths in 2021 (hps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/state-
and-territorial-data.htm) as compared to 2019 (hps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr70/nvsr70-08-508.pdf) and
by 114336 deaths as compared to 2020 (hps://hdpulse.nimhd.nih.gov/data-
This corresponds to an average state-wise increase in age-adjusted all cause mortality rate of about 1 promil in 2021,
a 12 percent increase, from 7.96 to 8.93 deaths promil. Previous analyses of state-wise monthly all cause mortality
showed increases in all cause mortality proporonal to monthly statewise COVID19 vaccine injecons (Pantazatos
and Seligmann 2021, (PDF) COVID vaccinaon and age-straed all-cause mortality risk (researchgate.net)),
suggesng that these injecons could explain 2021-excess mortality. That study found that expected injecon-
associated deaths were for that period about 21 mes larger than reported in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reports
System (VAERS, hps://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D8;jsessionid=59584AD0A9BFC60C73E16109806E),
conrming underreporng of adverse eects in systems such as VAERS, based on self-reporng. These previous
results predict that state-wise all cause excess mortality should be proporonal to state-wise death rates in VAERS
(accessed June 21 2023).
Figure 1. Excess 2021 state-wise all cause mortality vs statewise VAERS death rates. The two state groups are
determined by eyeballing. Note that 2021 all cause mortality increased in all states besides New Jersey.
y = 24.68x + 51.01
R² = 0.3141
y = 4.67x + 13.79
R² = 0.4444
y = 5.98x+9.87
R² = 0.7704
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2021 increase in age-adjusted all cause death rates per
100000 vs average 2019-2020 rates
VAERS death reports per 100000 individuals with at least one COVID19 injection
Figure 1 shows that excess 2021 state-wise all cause mortality increases proporonally to statewise VAERS death
rates (number of C19 injecon-associated VAERS reports per 100000 individuals with at least one injecon in that
state). There are two groups of states, of 20 and 30 states, diering in the increase rate of all cause excess death rates
per VAERS death rates. In the 20- and 30-state groups (respecve total populaons of about 110 and 224 million
inhabitants), excess death rates increase ~5 and ~25 mes faster than VAERS death rates. The average of these two
groups weighted by populaon sizes shows that excess death rates increase 19 mes faster than the VAERS death
rate. This is very close to 21 mes, a previous esmaon of this rao (Pantazatos and Seligmann 2021, (PDF) COVID
vaccinaon and age-straed all-cause mortality risk (researchgate.net)).
The causes for these two disnct groups of states are unknown. These could range from dierent vaccine type
distribuon, batch qualies (Schmeling et al 2023, hps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13998), biases in
reporng habits/administraon of VAERS reports, to health of the respecve populaon groups. Note that using
dierent versions of the VAERS database (hps://www.vaersaware.com/) according to dierent publicaon dates and
reports correcons does not alter qualitavely results shown here.
Figure 2 shows a clear geographic clustering of the two disnct groups of states, which is unexplained but far from
the expected random mosaic.
Figure 2. Geographic clustering of disnct state groups observed from analysis of associaon between statewise
VAERS death rate vs increase in all cause mortality in Figure 1.
Map canvas from
Independently of this, paerns suggest that deadly secondary eects of COVID19 injecons associate with most
excess all cause mortality in 2021.
Acknowledgments: Thanks to Albert Benavides and Jessica Rose for discussions of results and providing earlier and
corrected versions of the VAERS data.