US state-wise VAERS COVID19 injection death rate predict state-wise 2021 excess all cause mortality rate

Abstract

US state-wise VAERS COVID19 injection death rate predict state-wise 2021 excess all cause mortality rate

Results suggest that 2021 excess all cause mortality is mainly or at least to large extents due to secondary effects of COVID19 injections.

Full text

US state-wise VAERS COVID19 injecon death rate predict state-wise 2021 excess all cause mortality rate
Results suggest that 2021 excess all cause mortality is mainly or at least to large extents due to secondary eects of
COVID19 injecons.
Hervé Seligmann
For the USA, total all cause mortality increased by 613779 deaths in 2021 (hps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/state-
and-territorial-data.htm) as compared to 2019 (hps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr70/nvsr70-08-508.pdf) and
by 114336 deaths as compared to 2020 (hps://hdpulse.nimhd.nih.gov/data-
portal/mortality/table?cod=247&cod_opons=cod_15&ratetype=%2a&ratetype_opons=ratetype_2&race=00&race
_opons=race_6&sex=0&sex_opons=sex_3&age=001&age_opons=age_11&ruralurban=0&ruralurban_opons=ru
ralurban_3&yeargrrb.gy/omw72).
This corresponds to an average state-wise increase in age-adjusted all cause mortality rate of about 1 promil in 2021,
a 12 percent increase, from 7.96 to 8.93 deaths promil. Previous analyses of state-wise monthly all cause mortality
showed increases in all cause mortality proporonal to monthly statewise COVID19 vaccine injecons (Pantazatos
and Seligmann 2021, (PDF) COVID vaccinaon and age-straed all-cause mortality risk (researchgate.net)),
suggesng that these injecons could explain 2021-excess mortality. That study found that expected injecon-
associated deaths were for that period about 21 mes larger than reported in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reports
System (VAERS, hps://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D8;jsessionid=59584AD0A9BFC60C73E16109806E),
conrming underreporng of adverse eects in systems such as VAERS, based on self-reporng. These previous
results predict that state-wise all cause excess mortality should be proporonal to state-wise death rates in VAERS
(accessed June 21 2023).
Figure 1. Excess 2021 state-wise all cause mortality vs statewise VAERS death rates. The two state groups are
determined by eyeballing. Note that 2021 all cause mortality increased in all states besides New Jersey.
y = 24.68x + 51.01
R² = 0.3141
CT
HI IA
IL
KY
y = 4.67x + 13.79
R² = 0.4444
SD excluded
y = 5.98x+9.87
R² = 0.7704
MA
MD
MI
MN
MO
MT
ND
NE NH
NJ
NY
RI
SD
TN
WV
-15
35
85
135
185
235
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2021 increase in age-adjusted all cause death rates per
100000 vs average 2019-2020 rates
VAERS death reports per 100000 individuals with at least one COVID19 injection

Figure 1 shows that excess 2021 state-wise all cause mortality increases proporonally to statewise VAERS death
rates (number of C19 injecon-associated VAERS reports per 100000 individuals with at least one injecon in that
state). There are two groups of states, of 20 and 30 states, diering in the increase rate of all cause excess death rates
per VAERS death rates. In the 20- and 30-state groups (respecve total populaons of about 110 and 224 million
inhabitants), excess death rates increase ~5 and ~25 mes faster than VAERS death rates. The average of these two
groups weighted by populaon sizes shows that excess death rates increase 19 mes faster than the VAERS death
rate. This is very close to 21 mes, a previous esmaon of this rao (Pantazatos and Seligmann 2021, (PDF) COVID
vaccinaon and age-straed all-cause mortality risk (researchgate.net)).
The causes for these two disnct groups of states are unknown. These could range from dierent vaccine type
distribuon, batch qualies (Schmeling et al 2023, hps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13998), biases in
reporng habits/administraon of VAERS reports, to health of the respecve populaon groups. Note that using
dierent versions of the VAERS database (hps://www.vaersaware.com/) according to dierent publicaon dates and
reports correcons does not alter qualitavely results shown here.
Figure 2 shows a clear geographic clustering of the two disnct groups of states, which is unexplained but far from
the expected random mosaic.
Figure 2. Geographic clustering of disnct state groups observed from analysis of associaon between statewise
VAERS death rate vs increase in all cause mortality in Figure 1.
Map canvas from
hps://www.reddit.com/r/mapping/comments/nl3782/i_made_a_blank_map_of_the_united_states_of/.
Independently of this, paerns suggest that deadly secondary eects of COVID19 injecons associate with most
excess all cause mortality in 2021.
Acknowledgments: Thanks to Albert Benavides and Jessica Rose for discussions of results and providing earlier and
corrected versions of the VAERS data.