An Introduction to Political Demography

Abstract

This presentation was an introduction to a Roundtable Discussion on Demographics and Politics, Organized by the Athens Institute for Education and Research,
Athens, 12 June 2023

Full text

An Introduction to Political Demography

Gregory T. Papanikos

Roundtable Discussion on Demographics and Politics
Organized by the Athens Institute for Education and Research
Athens, 12 June 2023

Political Demography studies the political consequences of
population changes as well as the public policy effects on
demography, including population size, population composition,
and nationally and internationally geographical distribution of
population.
The causality runs both ways: politics affect demographics and
demographics shape political developments.

Political Demography: A Definition

1) Will the world population increase, remain the same or decline in the long run (e.g., by
2100)? (United Nations, World Population Prospects).
2) Population aging (longer life, lower fertility, uneven age distributions).
3) Population structure and political behaviour (e.g., voting).
4) Demographics and the politics of health and social security.
5) Demographics and the politics of education (human capital).
6) Population and its policy effects on technology and growth.

What are the issues?

1) Uneven global demographic transition will most probably continue to
increase throughout the 21st century.
2) Political effects are expected to come from:
a) population differences of rival countries (India vs China);
b) the growing proportion of young versus old people;
c) the rural-urban uneven developments;
d) ethnic or religious groups within and across stated;
e) mass exodus of populations from poor countries with relatively younger
populations to rich countries with relatively older population cohort.

What to expect?

Graph 1. World Population Prospects, 2022-2100
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (https://www.un.org/en/desa)

Graph 2. China vs India Population Prospects (Medium Variant), 2022-2100
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (https://www.un.org/en/desa)

Graph 3. Greek Population Prospects, 2022-2100
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (https://www.un.org/en/desa)

Graph 4. Voting Behavior by Age Structure: The Case of Greek Elections, 25 May 2023


Population, Technology and Growth
Malthusian
Regime
Post
-
Malthusian
Regime
Modern Growth
Regime
Population Growth
High Rising Declining (?)
Technological
Progress
Slow Rising High
Per Capita Income
Growth
None Rising Sustained
High
Source: Oded Galor and David N. Weil (2000) “Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic
Transition and Beyond”, American Economic Review 90(4): 806-828.

Political Demography is a promising area of research that
takes into consideration the interactions between politics and
demographics.
It can draw from many disciplines, including social sciences in
general, anthropology, history, geography etc.
The roundtable discussion brings together researchers from
the areas of demographics and politics to discuss facets of
issues that is of interest to both disciplines.
Conclusions


Thank you !!!