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Migration and Globalization
Abstract
A more interconnected world economy is—as seen—characterized by the increase in cross-border trade and the mobility of international capital. In theory, it would also be characterized by free movement of people—especially by the freedom of establishment of workers—across borders, since globalization would favor and make it profitable for (almost) all participants (see below). However, from the point of view of free choice of place of work in the global or even regional context, it cannot really be said that there is free movement of people.
У статті аналізується взаємозв’язок глобалізації та міграції, досліджується, як глобалізація стимулює міграцію і як міграція, у свою чергу, формує глобалізований світ. Акцентується на позитивному впливі глобалізації, хоча країни вступають у цей процес зі значними відмінностями в умовах. Досліджуються економічні та соціальні наслідки міграції як для країн, що відправляють мігрантів, так і для країн, що їх приймають, а також прогнозуються потенційні тенденції в міграційних моделях на основі поточних глобалізаційних процесів. Підкреслюється важливість регулювання міграції для покращення соціально-економічного стану країн. Акцент зроблено на необхідності адаптації міграційної політики для забезпечення максимальної вигоди від участі у міграційних рухах, враховуючи потреби економіки. Це включає в себе не лише вирішення питань інтеграції мігрантів, але й оптимізацію ринків праці та захист національних інтересів.
What is the greatest single class of distortions in the global economy? One contender for this title is the tightly binding constraints on emigration from poor countries. Vast numbers of people in low-income countries want to emigrate from those countries but cannot. How large are the economic losses caused by barriers to emigration? Research on this question has been distinguished by its rarity and obscurity, but the few estimates we have should make economists' jaws hit their desks. The gains to eliminating migration barriers amount to large fractions of world GDP—one or two orders of magnitude larger than the gains from dropping all remaining restrictions on international flows of goods and capital. When it comes to policies that restrict emigration, there appear to be trillion-dollar bills on the sidewalk.
Does immigration change support for redistribution? We design and conduct large-scale surveys and experiments in six countries to investigate how people perceive immigrants and how these perceptions influence their support for redistribution. We find striking misperceptions about the number and characteristics of immigrants. In all countries, respondents greatly overestimate the total number of immigrants, think immigrants are culturally and religiously more distant from them, and economically weaker—less educated, more unemployed, and more reliant on and favoured by government transfers—than they actually are. In the experimental part of our article, we show that simply making respondents think about immigration before asking questions about redistribution makes them support less redistribution, including actual donations to charities. The perception that immigrants are economically weaker and more likely to take advantage of the welfare system is strongly correlated with lower support for redistribution, much more so than the perceived cultural distance or the perceived share of immigrants. These findings are confirmed by further experimental evidence. Information about the true shares and origins of immigrants does not change support for redistribution. An anecdote about a “hard-working” immigrant has somewhat stronger effects but is unable to counteract the negative priming effect of making people think about immigration. Our results further suggest that narratives shape people’s views on immigration more deeply than hard facts.
In this thesis, I use dynamic models of international migration to develop a better understanding both of the determinants of migrants’ return and re-migration decisions, and of the implications for econometric analyses of immigrants’ economic outcomes. Chapter two analyses the effect of higher origin income levels on migration duration and the incidence of repeat migration. To evaluate this effect, a dynamic life cycle model of consumption and migration is formulated, where households may borrow within income dependent limits to buffer economic shocks or to finance a migration. Results show that higher income levels in Mexico reduce migration duration but increase both the average number of trips per migrant and the amount of repatriated income earned abroad. Chapter three focuses on the host country and argues that expected migration temporariness can impart a distinct dynamic element to immigrants’ economic behaviour, with possible consequences for non–migrants in both home and host countries. The chapter proposes a general framework for modelling return migration decisions, based on which the various motives for temporariness discussed in the literature are outlined. Chapter four investigates the econometric assumptions underlying the literature estimating immigrant earnings profiles, most of which assumes that wage growth is unaffected by migration duration. Challenges arise if the out-migration of immigrants from a host country responds to time-varying earnings determinants, in which case a consistent estimation of career profiles requires modelling the out-migration process. Chapter five takes up this argument and assesses the implications of anticipated migration duration for immigrants’ human capital investment and for estimations of immigrant earnings profiles. The analysis uses panel data that provide repeated information on immigrants’ return intentions to estimate a lifecycle model of consumption, human capital investment and return migration. The analysis shows that policies that influence migrants’ return decisions may lead to suboptimal career profiles.
Many migrations are temporary-a fact that has often been ignored in the economic literature on migration. Such omission may be serious in that expected migration temporariness can impart a distinct dynamic element to immigrants' economic behavior, generating possible consequences for nonmigrants in both home and host countries. In this paper, we provide a thorough examination of the various aspects of temporary migrations that matter for the analysis of economic phenomena. We demonstrate the extent of temporary migrations in population movements. We show how temporariness can affect the various economic choices and how better data have improved both the measurement of nonpermanent migrations and the analyses of various aspects of migrant behavior. We propose a general theoretical framework for modeling temporary migration decisions, based on which we outline the various motives for temporariness while simultaneously reviewing related literature and available data sources. We discuss the possible consequences of migration temporariness for nonmigrants in both home and host countries. (JEL F22, F24, J11, J61, K37, O15).
The most basic economic theory suggests that rising incomes in developing countries will deter emigration from those countries, an idea that captivates policymakers in international aid and trade diplomacy.A lengthy research literature and recent data suggest something quite different: that over the course of a “mobility transition”, emigration generally rises with economic development until countries reach upper-middle income — at least until countries reach upper-middle income level, like Algeria or El Salvador. Only thereafter, as countries become even richer, do emigration rates typically fall.This note quantifies the shape of the mobility transition in every decade since 1960. It then briefly surveys 45 years of research, which has yielded six classes of theory to explain the mobility transition and numerous tests of its existence and characteristics in both macro- and micro-level data.This evidence suggests that donors to low income countries have little hope of using assistance to deter migration, unless the determinants of migration undergo rapid change in the future. Policy research might be better directed toward understanding how to shape rising migration flows for mutual gain. The note concludes by suggesting five questions that require further study.
Large numbers of people born in poor countries would like to leave those countries, but barriers prevent their emigration. Those barriers, according to economists’ best estimates to date, cost the world economy much more than all remaining barriers to the international movement of goods and capital combined. Yet economists spend much more time studying the movement of goods and capital, and when they study migration at all, they focus on the effects of immigration on nonmigrants in destination countries. I ask why this is the case and sketch a four-point research agenda on the effects of emigration. Barriers to emigration deserve a research priority that is commensurate with their likely colossal economic effects.
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What We Know About Migration and Development, Migration Policy Institute
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