The Impact of Tax Reform on Economic Growth in Sudan

Abstract

Tax reform is an important policy tool for governments to promote economic growth. It is an important aspect of economic policy as it can have a significant impact on the overall health of the economy. Furthermore, tax reform, foreign direct investment, population growth, and economic activity are all closely related. This study aims to examine the impact of tax reform on economic growth in Sudan from 1961 to 2021. For this purpose, the study used the gross domestic product as the dependent variable representing economic growth (Y), while the explanatory variables represented tax reform (X1), population growth (X2), and foreign direct investment (X3). The data were collected from the World Bank database. The study applied the ordinary least squares technique, and the obtained results showed that while population growth and foreign direct investment play a significant role in economic growth, tax reform has a little bite impact on Sudan's economic growth during the period under study. So that by reforming the tax system, governments can create a more efficient and fair system that encourages economic growth and investment.

Full text

The Impact of Tax Reform on Economic Growth in Sudan
BADRELDIN MOHAMED AHMED ABDULRAHMAN*, HOUCINE BENLARIA,
HAMZA ABDALLAH ABDALRHMAN YAHYA,
ABDERHIM ELSHAZALI YAHIA ABDALLAH, TARIG OSMAN ABDALLAH HELAL,
IBRAHIM AHMED ELAMIN ELTAHIR, SAEED HASSAN ELAAGEB HASAB ELKARIM,
BABIKER ELYASA ELKHALIFA
Department of Business Administration,
Jouf University,
SAUDI ARABIA
*Corresponding Author information: ORCID: 0000-0003-2174-1150
Abstract: - Tax reform is an important policy tool for governments to promote economic growth. It is an
important aspect of economic policy as it can have a significant impact on the overall health of the
economy. Furthermore, tax reform, foreign direct investment, population growth, and economic activity are all
closely related. This study aims to examine the impact of tax reform on economic growth in Sudan from 1961
to 2021. For this purpose, the study used the gross domestic product as the dependent variable representing
economic growth (Y), while the explanatory variables represented tax reform (X1), population growth (X2),
and foreign direct investment (X3). The data were collected from the World Bank database. The study applied
the ordinary least squares technique, and the obtained results showed that while population growth and foreign
direct investment play a significant role in economic growth, tax reform has a little bite impact on Sudan's
economic growth during the period under study. So that by reforming the tax system, governments can create a
more efficient and fair system that encourages economic growth and investment.
Key-Words: - tax reform, population growth, foreign direct investment, GDP, Economic Activity, and
economic growth
Received: December 18, 2022. Revised: May 13, 2023. Accepted: May 28, 2023. Published: June 6, 2023.
1 Introduction
Tax reform is an important policy tool for
governments to use to promote economic growth.
Tax reform can be used to reduce the burden of
taxation on businesses and individuals, stimulate
investment, and encourage economic activity. It can
also be used to redistribute income and wealth and
provide incentives for certain types of activities. Tax
reform has been a major topic of debate in recent
years, as governments around the world have sought
to adjust their tax systems to promote economic
growth.
Tax reform can have a significant impact on
economic growth, as it can affect the incentives for
businesses and individuals to invest and consume.
research carried out by [1], analyzed the impact of
tax reforms on the economic growth of Nigerians
between 1986 and 2012. The results showed that tax
reforms are positively, and significantly associated
with economic growth. They concluded that
favorable tax reforms improve the government's
ability to generate revenue to engage in socially
desirable activities that lead to absolute and per
capita economic growth. Therefore, [2], used a
cross-generational endogenous growth model and
showed that the homeownership tax in China
increases the accumulation of physical and human
capital and the growth rate of output in the long run,
that tax revenues are used regardless of spending
and government debt, personal income or capital
taxes, or reduce an increase government spending
on education. To ensure progress in the field of
sustainable development and counter threats to
national security, the development of instruments to
balance the ecological, economic, and energy
aspects of the economy is of particular importance.
Moreover, [3], examined the impact of selecting
different functional elements of transportation
taxation on their effectiveness in ensuring national
security. The results obtained did not
allow unequivocally determine the impact of
transport taxes on efficiency.
The current paper aims to explore the impact of
the tax reform on economic growth in Sudan during
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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.109
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the period (1961- 2021). For this purpose, the study
used the gross domestic product as a dependent
variable to represent economic growth (Y). Tax
reform (X1), population growth (X2), and foreign
direct investment (X3) represent explanatory
variables. The study applied the ordinary least
square technique to data collected from the World
Bank database.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows:
section two reviews the literature. Section three
presents the methodology and model specification.
Results discussion and conclusion provide in
sections four and five, respectively.
2 Literature Review
Tax reform is a broad term that encompasses a
variety of changes to taxation systems, including
changes in rates, exemptions, deductions, credits,
and other features. Tax reforms can be designed to
increase revenue or reduce government spending,
but they can also affect economic growth. For
example, reducing marginal tax rates can encourage
investment and entrepreneurship by providing
incentives for individuals to invest in productive
activities. Similarly, eliminating certain deductions
or credits can reduce distortions in the economy and
lead to more efficient resource allocation. The
empirical evidence on the impact of tax reform on
economic growth is mixed. Studies from developed
countries generally find that reductions in marginal
tax rates are associated with higher levels of
economic growth, [4], [5]. However, these results
are not universal; some studies found no significant
effect, [6].
In developing countries, some studies suggested
that reductions in marginal tax rates may have a
positive effect on economic growth, [7]. In [8],
author described an economy with overlapping
generations, endogenous growth, and an unfunded
pension system financed by capital and labor
income taxes. The study found that a rise in worker
income and capital taxation leads to a decline in the
elderly labor supply. The result suggested that,
under some circumstances, a capital income tax and
growth have an inverted U-shaped connection.
Although, it is widely believed that capital should
not be taxed in the long run. In addition to
examining the direct effects of tax reforms on
economic growth, it is also important to consider
their indirect effects. For example, reducing taxes
may lead to increased government spending which
could have a positive effect on economic growth,
[9]. Similarly, reducing taxes may lead to increased
investment which could also have a positive effect,
[4]. Considering India's experience of economic
growth, [10], analyzed annual government revenue,
development, and gross domestic product data from
1990 to 2017. The study revealed a positive
association between tax revenues and GDP; a
relationship was also found between tax revenues
and development costs. They concluded that to
increase GDP and growth, it is necessary to
accelerate spending on the development of
investment projects. Government revenue is the
main source of funding for the public.
The authors in [11], determined the influence of
tax revenues on economic growth in Nigeria. They
said tax revenue didn't matter for Nigeria's inflation
rate and interest rate at a significant level of 5%.
Given the favorable relationship between taxes on
oil profits and economic development, they
recommended that the federal government support
the management of public finances, promote audit
and transparency measures, streamline tax
administration, and fight tax evasion. It is tough to
predict how tax reform will affect economic
development because of several issues. First, it is
difficult to isolate the effects of any particular policy
change from other factors that may be influencing
economic performance at any given time. Second,
many policies are implemented as part of the
broader package which makes it difficult to isolate
their individual effects, [6]. Thirdly, there may be
lags between policy implementation and its effects
which further complicates the analysis, [9].
Empirically, [12], analyzed the effect of tax reforms
on income distribution in developing countries.
They applied the local basic method to a new
database, tax reform, and narrative database
covering 45 emerging and low-income countries.
The results revealed that Personal income reform
reduced the disposable Gini and increase the bottom
income share. In the same regard, [13], noted that
taxation has four main functions: revenue,
redistribution, revaluation, and representation.
According to different theories and empirical
evidence, the issue of population and economic
growth is controversial. Therefore, [14], analyzed
the impact of population growth on economic
growth in the Ethiopian economy. They used ARDL
methods, whose empirical results showed that
population growth, export growth, and import
growth had significant positive effects on Ethiopia's
economic growth in both the short and long term.
Furthermore, [15], analyzed the impact of
population growth rate, economic growth and index
of human development, distribution of income, and
rate of unemployment on poverty in all provinces of
Indonesia. They found that population growth rate,
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economic growth, human development index,
income distribution, and unemployment rate
affected poverty in all provinces of Indonesia
simultaneously. Moreover, [16], conducted a sizable
study to specifically investigate the relationship
between urban population growth and GDP in
impacting (ULE) for various areas, degrees of
economic development, and governmental
structures in more than 300 cities. They
demonstrated that, between 1970 and 2014,
population growth rather than GDP consistently
served as the primary predictor of (ULE). Thus,
[17], discussed the causal relationship between
foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic
growth in Kenya between 1980 and 2018. To solve
the problem of omitted variables, two variables,
namely money supply, and trade, were examined as
intermittent variables, which is a system of
multivariate equations of Granger causality.
Accordingly, [18], argued the relationship between
FDI and economic development in host countries.
They examined the non-linear link between
economic growth, foreign direct investment,
domestic investment, and financial development.
They used the cointegration technique (NARDL).
The results showed that the positive effects of FDI
and ID are more significant than the negative effects
and have a non-linear direction. Similarly, [19],
suggested that the tax burden in the future will have
to fall increasingly on labor as the less mobile factor
of production.
Sudan is a country located in Africa Continental
that has been plagued by civil war and economic
instability for many years. Despite this, the
economy of Sudan has seen some improvement in
recent years, due to several factors. The primary
driver of Sudan’s economic growth has been the oil
sector. Oil production in Sudan began in the late
1990s and has since become the country’s primary
source of revenue, [20]. In 2018, oil accounted for
nearly 70% of Sudan’s total exports and more than
50% of its GDP. This has helped to stabilize the
economy and reduce poverty levels. In addition to
oil, agriculture is another important sector of the
Sudanese economy. Agriculture accounts for around
20% of the GDP and employs approximately 40%
of the population, [21]. The main crops grown in
Sudan are sorghum, millet, wheat, cotton, sesame,
peanuts, gum Arabic, and sugarcane. The
government is also investing heavily in
infrastructure projects such as roads, railways, and
ports which will help to improve connectivity
between different parts of the country and increase
access to markets for agricultural products. This
should help to further boost economic growth in the
future. Sudan also has a large informal economy
which accounts for around 40% of the GDP. This
includes small-scale trading, subsistence farming,
and informal services such as transportation or
construction work. The informal sector provides
employment opportunities for many people who
would otherwise be unemployed or underemployed
due to a lack of formal job opportunities. Despite
these positive developments, there are still many
challenges facing Sudan’s economy including high
levels of inflation (currently at over 60%), high
unemployment (estimated at around 25%), and a
large public debt (estimated at over $50 billion).
Generally, tax reform policies can have a
significant impact on economic growth in less
developed countries. Tax reform can help to create
an environment that encourages investment and
entrepreneurship, which are essential for economic
growth. Tax reform can also help to reduce the
burden of taxation on businesses, allowing them to
reinvest their profits into expanding their operations
and creating new jobs.
3 The Model and Methodology
In this section, we specify the model and
methodology. Our model takes the following form:
        󰇛󰇜
Fi  , i= 1,2, 3 (2)
where:
Y = Economic Growth (measured by GDP
Growth).
X1 = is a dummy variable that takes on a value
of 1 if tax reform has been implemented and 0
otherwise.
X2 = Population Growth (annual %).
X3 = Foreign direct investment, net inflows (%
of GDP)
β1, β2, and β3 are parameters to be estimated.
ε = an error term.
Equation (1) supposes that (tax reform, population
growth, and foreign direct investment) had a
positive impact on economic growth.
According to economic theory, tax reform
policies can have a significant impact on economic
growth in less developed countries. Tax reform can
help to create an environment that encourages
investment and entrepreneurship, which are
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essential for economic growth. It can also help to
reduce the burden of taxation on businesses,
allowing them to reinvest their profits into
expanding their operations and creating new jobs.
likewise, population growth and foreign direct
investment accelerate the growth of the economy
based on the economic literature. Table 1 shows the
secondary data of the study which was collected
from World Bank data (in millions $). Because the
effect of economic growth policy may take time to
materialize, the dependent variable will estimate
with one period lag (lnY).
The above table includes the study variables,
namely the growth rate of the gross domestic
product as a dependent variable, and the
independent variables represented in tax reform,
population growth rate, and foreign direct
investment. Where the logarithmic GDP growth rate
was equal to 1.56, the tax reform average was 0.18,
while the average population growth and the
average foreign direct investment indicated 2.76 and
1.56, respectively. The data were collected from the
World Bank database for the period from 1961-
2021.
4 Results and Discussion
The study applied the OLS technique to the data
covering the period (1961- 2021) on the above-
mentioned variables, we estimate equation (1). The
regression results are given in Table 2 and Table 3
below, where the estimated equation given in
equation (3). Based on the above Table 2 and
Table 3, the following equation represents
regression variables:
LNY = -0.420 X1 + 0.482 X2 + 0.125 X3 (3)
= 0.74 DW = 1.38
Table 1. Economic Growth (Y), Tax Reform (X1),
Population Growth (X2), and Foreign Direct
Investment (X3) in Sudan (1961-2021).
Year
Y
X1
X2
X3
Ln Y
1961
0.02
0
8.54
2.97
-3.8
1962
6.92
0
1.59
3.03
1.93
1963
-2.85
0
4.71
3.05
-
1964
-1.12
0
3.91
3.15
-
1965
6.78
0
-2.39
3.2
1.91
1966
-3.58
0
6.4
3.06
-
1967
1.42
0
6.76
3.01
0.35
1968
1.96
0
2.37
3.04
0.67
1969
1.39
0
8.61
3.03
0.33
1970
5.93
0
7.32
3.05
1.78
1971
2.25
0
6.56
3.17
0.81
1972
-5.07
0
14.31
3.27
-
1973
0.63
0
23.15
3.36
-0.46
1974
11.45
0
15.44
3.79
2.44
1975
15.71
0
5.28
4.13
2.75
1976
16.67
0
6.87
4.13
2.81
1977
6.22
0
17.4
4.19
1.83
1978
-5.93
0
24.91
4.26
-
1979
-5.02
0
23.97
4.27
-
1980
1.52
0
22.03
4.29
0.42
1981
7.44
0
24.98
4.29
2.01
1982
5.96
0
30.59
4.08
1.78
1983
2.06
0
26.06
3.28
0.72
1984
-5.01
0
33.64
2.28
-
1985
-6.28
0
46.17
1.82
-
1986
5.41
0
28.64
1.88
1.69
1987
14.22
0
25.89
1.71
2.65
1988
-0.33
0
78.86
1.1
-
1989
8.93
0
36.74
1.29
2.19
1990
-5.47
0
66.24
1.78
-
1991
7.51
0
88.77
1.71
2.02
1992
6.58
0
109.23
1.51
1.88
1993
4.57
0
97.49
1.74
1.52
1994
1.01
0
159.27
2.41
0.01
1995
6
0
104.56
2.55
1.79
1996
5.92
0
32.56
2.42
1.78
1997
18.31
0
37.92
2.45
2.91
1998
4.31
1
17.66
2.32
1.46
1999
3.1
1
15.82
2.39
1.13
2000
6.35
0
9.85
2.56
1.85
2001
6.5
0
21.13
2.44
1.87
2002
6.01
0
10.8
2.29
1.79
2003
6.29
0
9.8
2.22
1.84
2004
5.14
0
17.27
2.25
1.64
2005
5.64
0
18.05
2.43
1.73
2006
6.53
0
7.65
2.65
1.88
2007
5.74
0
15.31
2.79
1.75
2008
3.85
0
8.89
2.76
1.35
2009
-2.77
1
1.86
2.72
-
2010
3.86
1
22.67
2.37
1.35
2011
-3.21
1
26.33
1.99
-
2012
-17
1
30.13
2.13
-
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2013
1.96
1
36.43
2.34
0.67
2014
4.66
1
34.07
2.77
1.54
2015
1.91
1
14.02
3.11
0.65
2016
3.47
1
20.69
3.11
1.24
2017
0.71
0
34.62
3.25
-0.34
2018
-2.68
0
55.98
3.19
-
2019
-2.18
0
51.98
2.89
-
2020
-3.63
0
115.65
2.76
-
2021
-1.87
0
235.52
2.7
-
Equation three is statistically significant at 0.05
level as indicated by F statistics (32.274). Value of
the suggests that 74% of the variation in
economic growth is explained by variations in
variables of tax reform, population growth, and
foreign direct investment.
The statistic of DW indicates the absence of
serial correlation in the model at 0.05 level. The
expected sign of tax reform is negative and this
means that tax reform policy plays lite bite role to
enhance economic growth in Sudan during the
period (1961-2021). Meanwhile, reforming
taxation can help to reduce income inequality
by ensuring that everyone pays their fair share
of tax. Thus, tax reform is an essential tool for
promoting economic growth and ensuring that
the benefits of that growth are shared fairly
among all members of society. These results
differed from what was mentioned by [11], [7], [22].
So that tax reform can also reduce the cost of doing
business in a country, making it more attractive for
foreign investors and businesses.
The expected signs of population growth and
foreign direct investment are positive as the study
hypothesized. This means that as the population
grows, there is an increased demand for goods and
services, which can lead to increased economic
activity, on the other hand, rapid population growth
can also put a strain on resources and infrastructure,
leading to higher costs of living and slower
economic growth. This finding is similar to what
was mentioned by [14], [16].
Foreign direct investment has a positive effect
on economic growth as reported in equation (3). So
that it increases the productivity of domestic firms,
creating new jobs, and increasing the demand for
local goods and services. in Sudan during the period
(1961- 2021). Our findings are similar to those of,
[17], [18].
The economic growth of less developed nations
in general and Sudan's economy particularly can be
significantly impacted by tax reform, population
growth, and foreign direct investment. Tax reform
can assist in earning more money for the
government, which can then be spent on promoting
social and infrastructure initiatives that stimulate the
economy. Foreign direct investment can be attracted
by economic growth itself, and new capital and
technology can be introduced to boost and increase
productivity and generate jobs. Foreign direct
investment can also result in knowledge and skills
transfer that can encourage the growth of the
regional industry. Overall, these variables can work
together to create a virtuous cycle of economic
growth in LDCs that helps to lift people out of
poverty and improve their standard of living.
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5 Conclusion
This study looks at how tax reform affected the
Republic of Sudan's economy during the period
(1961-2021). In this regard, the study examined data
collected from the World Bank for research
variables (tax reform, population growth, FDI, and
economic growth). The findings revealed that:
tax reform policy plays lite bite role to enhance
economic growth in Sudan during the period (1961-
2021). Tax reform policies are likely to have a
significant impact on fostering economic growth in
less developed nations. However, any reforms must
be accompanied by other measures such as
improved access to finance and better governance
structures for them to have a lasting impact on
economic development.
Population growth impacts positively economic
growth, so as the population grows there is an
increased demand for goods and services.
The FDI had a beneficial effect on the economy by
boosting domestic companies' productivity,
generating new jobs, and raising demand for
regional goods and services.
The study concluded that tax reform can affect
the level of economic growth in Sudan. Foreign
direct investment can also lead to increased
economic growth, as it brings capital into the
country that can be used for business expansion and
job creation. Population growth can also lead to
increased economic growth as more people enter the
workforce and consume goods and services. Hence
all of these factors together contribute to a country’s
overall economic performance.
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Appendices
Appendix (1): Coefficients
Model
Un-
standardized
Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
t
Sig.
B
Std.
Error
Beta
1
X1
-.420
.400
-.104
-1.051
.301
X2
.482
.065
.795
7.377
.000
X3
.125
.081
.169
1.537
.134
a. Dependent Variable: logy
b. Linear Regression through the Origin
Appendix (2): Correlations
logy
X1
X2
X3
Std. Cross-
product
logy
1.000
.286
.848
.568
X1
.286
1.000
.397
.441
X2
.848
.397
1.000
.560
X3
.568
.441
.560
1.000
Sig. (1-
tailed)
logy
.
.043
.000
.000
X1
.043
.
.007
.003
X2
.000
.007
.
.000
X3
.000
.003
.000
.
N
logy
37
37
37
37
X1
37
37
37
37
2
37
37
37
37
X3
37
37
37
37
Contribution of Individual Authors to the
Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting
Policy)
The authors equally contributed in the present
research, at all stages from the formulation of the
problem to the final findings and solution.
Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a
Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself
No funding was received for conducting this study.
Conflict of Interest
The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)
This article is published under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
_US
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.109
Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman,
Houcine Benlaria et al.
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
1243
Volume 20, 2023