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Conceptualising the dynamics of carbon lock-in and effects on sustainability energy
transitions in Sub Saharan Africa: The Nigeria case study
By
Dr. Julius Omokhudu Irene
Email address: julius.irene1@gmail.com
Affiliation
Kingston University, London
Penrhyn Road, Kingston upon Thames,
Surrey KT1 2EE. United Kingdom
Second Author
Dr Bridget Nneka Obiageli Irene
Email address: ad3587@coventry.ac.uk
Affiliation
Coventry University
International Centre for Transformational Entrepreneurship
Faculty of Business & Law
Coventry. United Kingdom
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Conceptualising the dynamics of carbon lock-in and effects on sustainability energy
transitions in Sub Saharan Africa: The Nigeria case study
This preprint research paper has not been peer reviewed. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4470057
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Abstract
The influence of incumbent actors to resist sociotechnical transformation is referred as regime
resistance and presents an important consideration for the trajectories of sustainable energy
transitions. The multi-level perspective applied in most Western transition studies presents a
functionalistic and narrow perspective of the complex dynamism and interactions within a
rentier state that hinder sustainability transitions. This study draws on empirical data from a
clustering and thematic analysis of the multi-dimensional effects of incumbent regime -niche
interaction in a rentier state. This study offers a clear conceptual understanding of the complex
dynamics between sociotechnical niches and regime “lock-in”. Nigeria is chosen as the case
study because it provide a rich context and theoretical perspective of the broader fossil fuel
energy setting that advances our understanding of the lock in dynamics in sub Saharan Africa
that offer a comparatively slow transition path. The following findings were made based on
interviews of 60 actors in the Nigeria energy community. Firstly, the rentier and fossil fuel
energy contexts foster conditions of strong incumbent actors and ‘’lock-in mechanism’’
constraining the adoption of new sociotechnical systems. Secondly, the socioeconomic and
political contexts creates embedded conditions and forces that advances a ‘’lock-in’’
mechanism delaying or opposing sustainability transitions. Thirdly, the process is a complex
interactions of broader politico-economic actors and elites with sufficient power to influence
sustainability transitions policies. The empirical results shows that by far the influence carbon
lock in and rentirism has in resisting sociotechnical change and potential to shape the
directionality of the energy transition.
Keywords: Sustainability Transitions, Carbon lock-in, Rentierism, Path Dependency, Regime
Actors, Destabilization
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Introduction
The concept of carbon lock-in has emerged as an active field of research for understanding how
niche develop and interact with the regime to influence sustainability transitions (Unruh, 2000;
Rosenow and Lowes, 2021). The study frames the knowledge and interactions between regime
“lock-in”, complex societal systems and sociotechnical niches in understanding the scale and
speed of sustainability transitions. It entails a shift from the extant socio-technical transitions
and system discourse in the Global North to one built around the incumbent system of dominant
niche technologies, regime actors, practices and institutions, particularly niches that have the
power to influence the directionality of sustainability transitions (Kemp et al., 1998; Elzen et
al., 2012). Niches distil the diffusion of emerging sociotechnical innovations such as alternative
energy systems or particular thoughts and function outside incumbent structures, cultures,
systems and practices (Schot and Geels, 2008; Kern, 2012) and characterise an important
concept in policy making (Cherp et al., 2018). Incumbent energy systems, existing
infrastructure and vested interests are widely understood to resist alternative energy
technologies.
The concept of multi-level perspectives in sociotechnical transitions tends to be narrowly
focused on energy substitution and under explores the deepening interactions and dynamism
underlying the multi scarity and complex challenges in the Global South (Köhler et al., 2019;
Rosenbloom and Rinscheid, 2020; Markard et al., 2021). Understanding the complex dynamics
and interactions between regime “lock-in” and sociotechnical niches are critical in shaping the
speed and outcomes of sustainability transitions. This study provide insights of sustainability
transitions from a rentier and carbon lock-in perspectives, with reference to the oil and gas
landscape in Nigeria.
This study explores the dominant institutional arrangements and interlinkages of carbon lock
in’s and path dependency discourse, defining a position for relating the plural construct and
situational nuances underpinning sustainability transitions in the Global South that may thrive
the adoption of emerging niches locally or nationally in Sub Saharan African countries. The
study recommends opportunities for future research that provide understanding of the
mechanism to destabilise the socio-political and economic pressures responsible for
perpetuating carbon lock-in and practices in the uptake of low carbon energy sources in the
transition pathway.
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This study defines landscape pressures as institutional, regime and path-dependent pressures
who exert significant influence on policy change and development. This study concludes by
suggesting for a new policy and research framework that focuses on understanding and
addressing the multi-faceted resistance strategies sustained in fossil fuel-based regimes and
introducing the concept of phased destabilisation into policy framework.
The outline of this study is structured as follows:
Section 2 describes the imperatives, regional discourse and institutional policy preferences that
reinforced fossil fuel niches in Sub Saharan Africa.
Section 3 conceptualise the dynamics systems and complex interactions that occurs at different
levels of geographical space initiating opportunities for lock-in or sustainability transitions.
Section 4 highlights the methodological consideration, strategy for data collection, and analysis
of the study. Section 5 shows the mechanisms through which incumbent actors strategically
appropriate lock-in pressure through a mix of discursive and fundamental landscape activities.
Section 6 explored the broader implications of carbon lock-in in sustainability transitions and
diffusion of alternative energies and makes recommendations for better outcomes.
Section 7 highlights the limitation of the study while section 8 discusses the conclusion
2.0 Literature Review
2.1 Contextualizing the energy landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa
Recent studies have begun to examine how the functionality and structural configurations of
the energy sector in Sub-Saharan Africa responds to niche adoption and regime shifts. For
instance, incumbent institutions and regime actors in most Sub Saharan Africa countries are
rentier-based, and may design national policies that impede the development of alternative
energy systems (Akomolafe, 2023; Irene et al., 2023).
High carbon fossil energy sources have boomed all over the world across national and sub-
national economies, driving global industrialisation, energy security and transformational
growth (Huang et al., 2023; Marquardt et al., 2023). However, the imperative to achieve
sustainable growth in an era of climate change is reinforcing the momentum of the global
energy transformation through renewable technologies and improved energy efficiencies
bringing sustainable energy future within reach (Ren et al., 2023). However, competing
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national policies, environmental landscape, behaviours and surrounding socioeconomic forces
if at all foster lock-ins which constitute a barrier to sustainability transitions.
Carbon lock-in occurs when intense carbon emitting energy systems maintain, delay or inhibit
the transition to sustainable substitutes — a condition that put sustainability transition at risk
(Unruh, 2002). The coevolution and interactions of high carbon energy system and path
dependent mechanisms reinforces a set of complex economic, social, institutional, behavioural
and infrastructural constraints on sustainable development. Therefore, understanding the
drivers and interconnectedness of the elements that constitute the landscape, the developing
niches and incumbent regimes can help crystallise the different viewpoint to enable the
adoption of sustainable transition.
The potential to leapfrog Africa to a zero carbon future continue to frame transition discussions
(Williams et al., 2007; Roduner and Rohwer, 2022). Despite the grim consequences of climate
variabilities, Sub Saharan economies are locked into significant investment in high carbon
energy sources, and as yet to fully adapt green innovations in their taxonomy, even as the
Global North ‘’pull ahead of the race to zero-carbon future’’. It is assessed that underlying the
incumbent institutional conditions and range of complex socio-technical systems provides a
conceptual basis for understanding the transition pathways for sustainability transitions in Sub
Saharan. To do this, an emerging technology or niche innovation must decouple the incumbent
regime without negatively impacting the landscape where it is to be deployed (Deviney et al.,
2023). However, historic and material lock-ins and efforts to stablish the incumbent energy
system constitute a critical driver of economic development, raise living standards and ensure
energy security to over 600 million people in SSA who lack access to affordable and reliable
electricity. However, the potential scale and cumulative effects of industrialization may
exacerbate significant economic shocks and environmental vulnerabilities on the landscape
once the economy is locked-in into fossil fuel consumption (Fouquet, 2016). Fossil fuel energy
lock-in induces significant demand in energy demand and consumption with associated long-
term legacies of large scale infrastructural developments (Fouquet, 2016; Seto et al., 2016;
Blondeel et al., 2021).
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Fig: 1 Adoption of fossil fuels in energy-producing economies per capita consumption and subsidies.
Source: Fouquet, 2016
Nearly, 132 trillion barrels of proven world crude oil and 513.2 trillion cubic feet nearly 9% of global natural
gas reserves are found in SSA. Fossil fuels supplies 80% of electricity to the region while renewables generates
3%, hydropower, and biomass-contributes 7% to the energy mix. Chuwa and Perfect-Mrema, 2023
The global energy framework is experiencing radical transformation where the emphasis is no
longer on production and consumption of high carbon emitting energy sources but a transition
to green energy systems (Blondeel et al., 2021). The geopolitical dimensions of national energy
system transformation (EST) underscore how low carbon energy sources and whole system
approach is adapted to the changing energy landscape. The energy geopolitics and key
component of global energy supplies are intensely influenced by unconventional energy
thinking (Bradshaw, 2009; Lehmann, 2017) requiring resource rich fossil fuel dependent
countries to adopt the green energy agenda. More widely, the relatively weak state of renewable
technologies and ‘capital stranding’ in Africa portends that the potential to transition to a green
future is unlikely to be realized in 2060 and beyond (Okafor et al., 2021; Firdaus and Mori,
2023). Whilst the fastest growing world population, Africa energy demand is projected to
double by the end of the century requiring the need to design a road map for transformative
economic development, remain competitive and foster broader posterity through the expansion
of affordable and cleaner energy.
Notwithstanding the abundance of renewable energy resources in Africa, fossil energy
electricity generation continue to dominant the energy mix (Mutezo and Mulopo, 2021).
Success rate in planning and development of green energy projects is significantly lower than
fossil fuel expansions suggesting stronger sector relationships (private industry) dynamism that
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interlinked with policies regimes driving investments in fossil fuel development (Sen and
Ganguly, 2017; Schwerhoff and Sy, 2017). The application of direct subsidisation mechanisms
also support energy generation, delivery and consumption reaffirming the control of fossil
energy lock in which come at a significant cost to climate action and sustainable wellbeing
(Whitley, 2013; Skovgaard and Van Asselt, 2018) (Fig. 1). The combination of these factors
makes it difficult for a renewable-led growth without fossil fuels putting the region at an
economic disadvantage and potential late comers to the 4th industrial revolution.
As one of the most susceptible continent in the world to climate variabilities, Africa has a
unique contextual circumstances and untapped vast renewables solar, wind, hydro and
geothermal resources in the continent to set its own transformational energy and development
strategy by sidestepping further investments in existing and new fossil energy investments and
varying pathway of the energy transition. In that case, sustainability transitions are consciously
managed with sociotechnical changes responding and unfolding according to environmental
imperatives.
The role natural gas could play in the transition pathway and development interventions has
been widely debated in literature (Foxon et al., 2010; Irene, 2021; Morgunova and Shaton,
2022; Bugaje et al., 2022). However, the European Union (EU) makes an empirical case for
the deployment of decarbonized gas as viable ‘’greener’’ transition fuel (Edo, 2023). This
position offers a compelling strategic opportunity for Africa to be a leader in the emerging
energy revolution and green hydrogen market and to foster a step towards decoupling the
intensive carbon lock in infrastructures. This emerging path aligns the continent’s current
realities to solutions that are compatible to initiate sustainable development.
2.2 Critical perspectives of path dependencies and carbon lock-ins
The body of transition work considers the nature of sustainability transitions as reflecting the
switching of the incumbent high emitting carbon energy system and associated niche
technologies with low carbon or greener options (Sovacool, 2016; Andersen et al., 2023; Peyerl
et al., 2023). It is pertinent to note that the share of renewable energy sources have started to
increase in the global energy mix, however, the role of natural gas in the transition pathway
has received a narrow focus (Taylor et al., 2012). This scholarship or perspective does not fully
account for the geographical dynamics and variable unfolding scale of transition in other parts
of the world (Bridge and Gailing, 2020). Moreover, most socio-technical transitions (STT)
literature are focused on theorizing technological innovation without offering an integrative
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perspective of the varying power, politics and incumbency in the energy landscape
(Geels, 2014; Johnstone & Newell, 2018; Sovacool et al., 2020; Turnheim & Geels, 2013).
Emerging sociotechnical transitions, environmental innovation systems and technological
innovation draws on conceptual and empirical insights and policy-oriented analyses from the
Global North without shaping their transformation and coevolution with practical experiences
and sensitivities from the Global South, particularly in Sub Saharan Africa (Schlaile et al.,
2017; Weber and Truffer, 2017). However, over the last decade scholarly work and policy
interest on innovations towards sustainability has been gaining momentum as pressure mounts
for Africa to leapfrog from fossil fuel based energy systems to renewable energies (Power et
al., 2016; Fraser et al., 2023). Transitional evolution of renewable technologies has been very
slow, incremental and varied across the continent (Fig. 2). Transition scholars argued that fossil
fuel lock-in and existing regime resistance are constraining competing energy technologies in
SSA (Fraser et al., 2023; Cairney et al., 2023; Marquardt et al, 2023).
Studies show that historic niche innovations deepens and induces path dependencies on the
landscape creating embedded structural properties, institutional beliefs and values that persist
long after new or alternative technological choices (Engels, 2023; Goldstein et al., 2023). The
diffusion of emerging sociotechnical system is affected by this lock-in mechanism. The concept
of fossil lock-in mechanism refers to the mutually reinforcing resistance created by fossil fuel-
based energy systems that constraints transitory process and alternative energy technologies
(Unruh, 2000). Lock-in intersects a broad range of context and agencies, ranging from
technological, institutional, infrastructural and behavioural, setting an intractable conditions
for intervention or transition to occur (Fig. 2).
Scholarly and policy research is increasing on this subject as attention draws on Africa to
leapfrog to green energy systems (Okpanachi et al., 2022). Progress in sustainability transition
and climate action has been uneven and varied across the continent undergird by Africa
political economy and socio-ecological dynamics. Policymakers in fossil resource-dependent
region are challenged on how to design appropriate institutional frameworks and policy mix to
destabilize the existing institutional regimes to new sociotechnical systems without
exacerbating prevailing socioeconomic conditions. Studies shows that incumbent regimes
present compelling resistance to the deployment of low carbon technologies in non-OECD
countries (Elzen et al., 2004; Verbong and Geels, 2010).These developments points to the
resilience of fossil fuel based regimes to negate transition to green energies.
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Seminal work by Geels and others (Geels, 2002, 2012; Geels and Schot, 2007), addressed the
conceptual-theoretical underpinning societal transitions from the multi-level perspective. The
authors identified that interaction of nurtured niches and regimes actors creates the mechanism
for path dependency enabling resistance to technological innovations. Incumbent niches build
strong internal force in the exogenous socio-technical landscape through price performance (in
the main stream market) and support from powerful actors. The coevolution of these factors is
conceptualized as enabling a lock in mechanism at the sociotechnical landscape (political,
cultural, economic, technical, and infrastructural) creating resistance to competing
technologies. Studies by Unruh (2000) addressed this concept in carbon-based energy systems
as ‘techno-institutional complex’. The author noted that the dominance of carbon lock in
sustained by the mutual interactions among institutional regimes (state and non-state actors)
and sociotechnical systems. Institutions drivers, subsidies and incentives develop over time to
strengthen the technological system, both in terms of regulatory policies and behaviour creating
a fossil lock in system.
Levy and Newell (2002) and Phelan et al (2012) used the concept of ‘historical bloc’ to describe
the dynamic nature and system of hegemony and arrangement of economic structures, societal
groups and associated socio-political constructions to legitimize institutional governance and
behaviour. The authors described the role government play in shaping the social behaviour of
society using coercive power and strict monitoring to legitimatise, influence and enforce
compliance to policies and market conditions. These linkages appear to correlate with the
dynamic socio-political processes observed in the sociotechnical landscape of countries with
weak democratic institutions such as SSA, where interests and coalitions are shaped and
configured by elements of cronyism and undemocratic practices (Adika, 2020; Fambeu and
Yomi, 2023). The underlying power dynamics and view of power is likely to produce unethical
transitions or sub optimal outcomes. Policymakers and transition researchers need to
conceptualise understandings from the political economy landscape of Africa as largely
resistance strategies towards sustainability transitions. Fine and Rustomjee, (1996) used the
concept of ‘minerals-energy complex’ and capital accumulation to illustrate how carbon lock-
in is initiated by the fossil fuel industry (lobbyist, agents and industries) with policy elites in
South Africa. Arguably, this merger exercise compelling power over the sociotechnical
landscape by building monopolistic structures and regimes opposing forms of interventions or
transition (Padayachee, 2010). These illustrations help to elaborate some generalised theories
about the degree to which incumbent systems interact to induce resistance to emerging niche
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technologies. As a result, designing appropriate policy and institutional framework to induce
regime shift offers a potential pathway for the evolution of transition goals is critical. This has
important implications for system level changes that contributes to addressing the dynamics of
lock-in associated with high emitting energy landscape. The concept of regime and
technological shifts has been used to explore sustainability governance and the impact of
environmental pressure on sociotechnical trajectories (Rodionov, 2005; Berkhout et al., 2010;
Mohammed et al., 2023; Irene et al., 2023). This scholarship and thinking has been applied in
several countries (India, German and Australia) policy programmes to facilitate sustainability
transitions (Geels, 2002; Ghosh and Schot, 2019; Derwort et al., 2022).
Figure 2: Process of Path Dependency and Lock-Ins. Source: [35].
Each point along the path dependency generates positive feedback which make the path lucrative, re-enforcing
the next phase of incumbency. As each phase continues to aggregate more positive feedback, creating a series of
self-reinforcing path dependencies
2.3 Sustainability transitions in a rentier context
Rentier state are economies that are largely dependent on substantial proceeds from the
exploitation of natural resources offering minimal support and funding for non-rent sector of
the economy (Chen, 2023; Regnault, 2023). The concept of rentierism could be used to
illustrate the critical factors and drivers of lock-in conditions in a fossil fuel dependent state
fostering structural barriers to niche innovations. The system creates rigid institution and
centralised governance systems making it structural unable to catch up with innovation
processes and technological development (Hafner and Tagliapietra, 2020). The rentier theory
evokes the consensus that structural dependence on fossil fuel remains the causal mechanisms
and dominant paradigm in SSA (Menaldo, 2016; Masuku, 2023; Jeppesen et al., 2023). Such
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is the case despite the fact that the hypothesis is theoretically controversial. The position of this
paper is to provide an empirical background to examine this hypothesis which has now received
little attention in sustainability transition studies in SSA.
There is evidence suggesting that most rentier state shows the propensity to react slowly to
local, national and global challengers (Goldberg et al., 2008). Scholars argue that the reason
rest with the mainstream approach to rent seeking and cycles of dependence, which dictates
policy thinking (Mazzucato et al., 2020). In this sense, policymaking is centralized and
strengthen by path dependent mechanisms and poorly institutionalized governing structures.
Put another way, the sociotechnical landscape is governed by special interests which establish
rigid specialisms, regimes and niche advantages, preventing healthy rivalry, innovations and
the emergence of alternative choices. The socio-political character of the incumbent systems
influence the emergence of new pathways. Much work need to be done to examine the ‘co-
evolutionary’ pathways to socio-technological change in which the adoption of technological
niches both ‘influences and is influenced’ by the landscape setting in which they mature.
Energy policymakers and transition managers must capture the networks of influence(s) used
by the powerful regime actors to shape the energy agenda. The adoption of niche innovation
depends on the path of its development, market space, values, norms, institution and regulatory
dynamics referred to as ‘path dependency’ (Irene et al., 2023). Of particular focus to
sustainability transition is the degree to which factors of path dependency support or resist the
emerging niche technology. In this context, increasing positive feedback or returns (in learning
effects, economic scale and adaptive opportunities) to regime actors will facilitate the
emergence of sociotechnical change (Foxon, 2002).
2.4 The Nigeria case study
The economy of Nigeria revolve around the exploitation and export of hydrocarbon resources
(Okpebenyo et al., 2023). The fossil fuel industry plays a critical role in shaping the political
economy. The institutional and policy governance of the energy sector relies on a centralised
top down structure creating a mineral-energy complex of powerful regimes, niches and actors
(Adibe et al., 2018; Osunmuyiwa et al., 2018). Nigeria is used in this study to generate a multi-
faceted perspective of the role technological niche and institutional 'lock-in' play in resisting
sustainable transitions (Fig. 3).
In this context, and as discussed in the previous sections, countries dependent on fossil fuels
are characteristically locked in a rentier/ rent seeking-dependent economic model and are
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understood to face specific economic and developmental challenges. The sociotechnical and
regulatory landscape is largely made of powerful regime actors embedded in a carbon-intensive
development pathway that characterizes the socioeconomic landscape (Fig. 3). The actors (in
a state/ institutional capture) create institutions and regimes (interconnection with International
Oil Companies (IOCs), National Oil Companies (NOCs), Oil marketers, Energy policymakers)
and control mechanisms over the landscape, mounting strong resistance to sociotechnical
reforms. The actors engage in activities that institutionalized their overall interest through
perverse incentives, cronyism, clientelism and subsidies. The growing incidence of corruption
in the Nigerian oil and gas landscape involving IOCs, companies and state ministries
undermine sustainability transitions (Agbu and Nzeribe, 2023). The centralised and long-
established actors in the energy sector explicitly prioritises fossil-fuel-based technologies
making it difficult for renewables to penetrate the landscape.
Drawing from the influence of regime actors, this study argues that the ease of transitioning to
a new technological system depends on how the interest of sector actors or corporations is
constructed and aligned to innovation policy. Studies suggest that regime actors exercise
significant political and stabilizing influence on incumbent policies. It is important to
understand that regime resistance may arise out of the complex internal process and
institutional arrangements such as sustaining energy subsidies leads to lock-in and significant
barrier to sustainable alternatives (Van der Vleuten and Högselius, 2012). Despite the
importance attached to lock-in and regime resistance, it remains abstract in practice, strong
carbon lock-ins behaviours and regime politics inhibits sustainability transitions creating
sufficient obstacles to innovation (Edmondson et al., 2019).
3.0 Conceptual Framework
3.1 Sociotechnical transitions
Dynamics in systems sociotechnical innovations refer to the interaction that occurs at different
levels of social, economic, political, institutional, technological and geographical space (Raven
et al., 2012). At the fundamental level, system innovation is a complex systemic challenge that
society faces, initiating opportunities to generate better outcomes (Fig. 3).
Growing studies on sociotechnical transitions acknowledge that sociotechnical systems in
developing economies are challenged by the interplay of societal practices and power relations
(Lawhon and Murphy, 2012; Geels, 2019). Critical finding supports that policy measures do
not account for the role relevant agency actors and energy communities play in shaping the
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scale and directionality of the energy transition (Rotmans et al., 2001; Petrovics et al., 2022).
Furthermore, policy-based scenario methodologies often fail to address the empirical
foundations of regime structures that influence the transition process. For example, landscape
factors, regime, and niche scenarios introduce elements of deep uncertainty and complexity in
the decision-making process. These challenges occur through dispersed and competing
interests (local, entrenched political power, and institutions). This multi-level governance and
interconnected strands of systems dynamics unfold a complex socio-cultural structure
undermining sustainability transitions. Accordingly, studies have highlighted examples of
context-specific approaches to understanding transition trajectories in oil-exporting rentier
economies (Beck and Richter, 2022; Mohammed et al., 2022).
There is a need to explore how the interactions of regime contestation are shaped, and diffused
across the geographical landscape. This paper provides an empirical and theoretical
understanding underpinning the interactions of multiple dimensions, system regimes and
incumbent institutions constraining large-scale transformations in a fossil-based economy.
Radical changes in socio-technical processes can trigger stabilizing effects of the entrenched
system which may deter the growth of innovative alternatives. Although the Multi-Level
Perspective (MLP) provides an understanding of the dynamics occurring at both individuals
and institutions, however, to provide insufficient material of vested interests, power play and a
failure to drive sociotechnical change. New policy concepts and theoretical paradigms are
therefore needed. The concept of assemblage thinking and actor-networks is gaining
ascendancy as a more nuanced framework to understanding and conceptualising dynamic
processes in the socio-material space (Müller and Schurr, 2016; Ruming, 2023; Sutherland et
al., 2023; Pan et al., 2023). This notion gives a better perspective whether environmental
pressure does have an influence on the stabilisation, change of sociotechnical innovation, and
if so, whether more optimal technology trajectories or approaches are required to inform
sustainability transition policies. These considerations explain how sociotechnical innovations
can emerge and how these can be substitute, alter, or transform incumbent systems. While
traditional sociotechnical innovation policies emphasized the force of creative destruction, a
process by which emerging innovations replace old innovations based on being outdated or
obsolete. System innovation theory contends that the disassembly of the incumbent regime,
including infrastructures, norms and regulations is required to initiate new sociotechnical
innovations (Fig. 3).
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Figure 3: Conceptual Framework
Regime actors and related networks in a rentier state. The interaction of these interest reinforces policy and
institutional influence on fossil energy sources.
4.0 Methodology
This study is a qualitative study based on an empirical case study of the active regime actors -
from a multi-dimensional perspective, focusing particularly on the Nigeria energy landscape
across the dominant regime and niche innovations, therefore the data outcome are expected to
be a good representation of regime practices and behaviour (Table 2). The participants were
identified by purposive sampling process and interviewed. Out of the 60 participants
interviewed, 20 were policymakers and 40 Business/ Industry Leaders, active actors in the
energy sector. 50 of the respondents are male while 10 were female. The average age of the
actors is 55 years with 25 years average industry experience. The demography of the
respondent is listed in Table 1. The study explored the influence of the identified actors in
sustainability transition, complemented by topics in niche innovation and policy issues. A
range of open interview questions (Table 2) were developed on the following thematic subjects,
allowing for qualitative data analysis and interpretation.
The sustainability transition characteristics of the themes were explored in terms of the actors’
engagement in the energy landscape and future prospect (who is responsible for the initiation,
design and implementation of new policy objective and sociotechnical innovation). These
thematic areas correlates with the objectives of the study, to explore the factors driving the
prospect or hindrances to sustainability transitions. The responses from the actors was
examined based on the role of the participants relevant to the national context. The responses
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were varied but provided a rich text of information in the different areas of sustainability. The
responses were grouped into conceptual categories based on the level of frequency of text to
observe common viewpoints. The coding approach was modified according to the theoretical
concepts discussed in the literature review and research objectives of the study.
Table 1: Demographic Characteristics of the Qualitative Sample (η60)
Variable
Number
Professional Status
Industry/ Business
40
Policymakers
20
Total
60
4.1 Content and thematic analysis
The themes were identified based on sustainability framework modified Table 2. The
contextual factors shaping lock in behaviour towards fossil energy were identified. The result
showed a general preference and support for fossil energy based on the prevailing political
economy, worldview on the energy transition, actors’ engagement with institutional structures,
and policy traditions.
These structures regulate regime and niche actors’ inducements/deterrents and constitute the
functional power group guarding visioning of energy plans, policy objectives and transitions
management. Actors considered the cost of developing renewable energy outweighs the
potential benefits of the incumbent energy system. The study identified that rounds of
responses and feedback from regime actors induce the co-evolution of technological niche and
socio-political-economic factors reinforcing institutional lock-ins.
4.2 Cluster analysis
The study used a grouping method and hierarchical procedure to segregate the actors responses
according to their proximity values reflected in the data. Cluster analysis was very valuable in
identifying homogeneity and outliers in the data (Eckstein 2016; Backhaus et al. 2016). The
variables used in the study were weighed equally before establishing a link that correlates to
specific variables. The study utilized three sets of variables based on extant literature review
for the clustering: behaviour/ culture to sociotechnical innovation/ adoption, value of
sustainability, and structural variables. The dynamics in key sectors show that the
characteristics of the actors as permanent feature. The features are consistent rather than
transient among the actors. The approach of this study provides a framework for understanding
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how lock in are related to increasing disparity and declining interest in emerging innovation,
impacting the diffusion of new technologies (Table 2, Fig 4).
Table 2: Cluster analysis and actor categories
Cluster
Variable
Question
Market entrance
Has any technological artefacts, sociotechnical innovation
innovations been introduced in the last 10 years that were new to
the energy landscape?
Urgent adoption of
sustainability
transition innovation
How soon after entrants of a new technology or social systems
are you able to use or adopt it?
Self-reflection of an
actor
What type of innovation do you envisage in the landscape?
Niche
Innovation
Willingness to social
technical innovation
What makes the Nigerian landscape different from other fossil
based region?
Environmental and
energy compatibility
How important are the following conditions to you?
Regional and Global
compliance (very)
important
How are these actors involved in the processes of sustainability
transition, planning and implementation of the changes?
Environmental
protection, climate
change, energy
security (very)
important
How important are the following objectives for your operation?
Sustainability
Transitions
National and local
development (very)
important
What role do actors at different levels and sectors (individual,
local or national government, non-profit and private sectors) play
in driving sustainability transition?
Above average
number of animals
kept
Has any technological artefacts, sociotechnical innovation
innovations been introduced in the last 10 years that were new to
the energy landscape?
Urgent adoption of
sustainability
transition innovation
How soon after entrants of a new technology or social systems
are you able to use or adopt it?
Self-reflection as an
actor
What type of innovation do you envisage in the landscape?
Sociotechnical
characteristics
and features
Willingness to social
technical innovation
What makes the Nigerian landscape different from other fossil
based region?
4.3 Emerging Themes and Clusters
4.3.1 Niche innovation
The study explored the potential pathways related to niche innovations which may enable or
hinder the adoption of alternative/ new energy technology. The responses were mainly profit
oriented as the main motivation over environmental and energy concerns. A slow diffusion of
alternative energy source was preferred by majority of the actors due to scepticism and mistrust
about making innovative changes. The self-reflection questions did not produce changes in
behaviour among the actors and correlated with their original position.
4.3.2 Sustainability transitions
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Energy and environmental factors related to national development, climate change, energy
security and efficiencies were highlighted to represent socioeconomic and environmental
sustainability. An inquiry into the motivation for endorsing the incumbent regime/ status quo
found that environmental and energy factors rated lower than national development. The
concept of sustainability transitions and mode of creating alternative to the incumbent regime
rated lower showing that regime/ niche actors are likely to show indifference to active
sustainability transitions.
4.3.3 Sociotechnical characteristics and features
The ability of actors to respond to disruptive changes in the landscape was examined. The
concept of 'disruptive change' integrates understandings from the business management
perspective of sudden shocks and uncertainties that changes the balance of market share and
ownership. The essence of this reflection is to challenge the values, models and norms of the
incumbent regime. This study find this insight useful because it provides a framework to
understand how disruption and uncertainties is framed internally and how regime actors react
to turbulence or shifts in the landscape or industry, whether actors consider change a positive
or negative has significant implications for the diffusion of sociotechnical transition. If the
actors perceive the context of change as a threat and uncertainties to resources will shape the
way they intervene in designing strategies to oppose it. In contrast, they are likely to support
the emerging landscape if they see opportunities to improve opportunities in supporting
alternative sociotechnical system.
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Figure 4: Actors responses and conceptual framework
5.0 Results of the study
The result of the study revealed a clear connection of roles among the actors in influencing the
adoption or resistance to niche innovation and sustainability transition and the social context
or capital in which the actors are active. The results further support previous theories on the
effects of carbon lock-in on sustainability transitions and radical sociotechnical innovation.
This study highlights that prevailing high carbon energy systems will not be destabilised by
technological green innovation alone, but a combined effects of regime–niche dynamics,
consideration of the broader politico-economic contexts at the national level, coevolution of
policy and institutions structure. The energy sector is made up of large typically interconnected
rigid regime actors and niche systems favouring a fossil lock-in. The adoption of sociotechnical
niche can only occur when destabilisation forces become strong enough to break the dominant
incumbent regime and niches. Policy for system innovation and the energy transitions is
underpinned by social acceptance, however, this study find that support for renewable energies
is significantly lower in a fossil energy landscape to initiate a radical transition. Policy feedback
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from actors appears to be homogenous reinforcing rigid institutional structures and collective
resistance to sustainability transitions. The underlying argument is that incumbent actors lean
towards to close associations supporting mutual economic interest and dependencies. Fossil
fuel energy is increasingly positioned as a viable and well established energy option side
stepping alternative transition pathways to deliver sustainable benefits. In a sense, motivation
and concerns about climate change is significantly weakened with policymakers now focused
on favouring existing regimes providing a clear understanding of how rentier expectations
contradicts pathways to sustainability transitions.
This study makes an important contribution on transition discourse which is largely ignored in
Sub Saharan Africa. This study also provides a theoretical contribution by incorporating
literature on socio-political context and innovation which is generally overlooked on
sociotechnical transition studies to deepen understandings of how to initiate fundamental
transformation in the region. In general, this study show the way rentier patterns and a
combination of embedded factors/ pressures interact and shape sustainability policy making in
the region.
6.0 Discussion and recommendations
Extant literature and debates has demonstrated how incumbent actors used privileges and
institutional forms to impede fundamental changes in the energy landscape and to posture
themselves as gate keepers of social technical transitions. Transition studies shows the
importance of exploring the effects of regime dynamics and role existing regime actors play in
initiating lock-in mechanism. This study explored the broader implications of carbon lock-in
in sustainability transitions. It is important to conceptualise the context of rentirism in transition
discourse. The role of rentirism is well illustrated by the more salient behaviour of regime
actor’s and deeply institutionalised structures interconnect with technological expectations to
hinder the adoption of emerging systems. The study showed that fossil fuel lock-in impede the
diffusion of renewable energies and speed of sustainability transition positioning fossil
energies as the dominant niche technology. Therefore, focus should now be shifted from the
dominant technological framework of system diffusion which places emphasizes on innovation
and technology to drive transition to understanding the discursive coalitions that underlie the
functioning of regime resistance (Geels and Verhees, 2011; Rosenbloom et al., 2016).
Rentier state theory posits that counties with considerable wealth of natural resources appear
to have similar characteristics of sustainability development trajectories (Fig. 1) [5]. Studies
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have shown that countries rich in fossil fuel-based energy resources face unique challenges in
their decarbonization effort. Fossil-based countries are locked in a rentier economic model and
behaviours that inhabit niche innovation. In simple terms, rentier capitalism forms the
foundation for the structure and functions (e.g., cultural, political, and social consequences) of
the state including the management of policy and institutional posture. Understanding the
forces and underlying factors framing how fiscal and energy policies are developed and
influence about socio-technical processes, productivity, growth, innovation, and technological
investment is critical in defining the potential for decarbonisation and energy sustainability.
Nigeria's socioeconomic regime reflects ‘rentierism’ given the functioning of public policy
formulation. The energy sector is centralized at the national levels controlled by a hegemony
of powerful political and institutional actors. Thoughts about the energy transition in a rentier
country like Nigeria should consider the broader enquiry into the linkages between the
incumbent socio-economic structure, rent streams and development. Rent seeking captures
many silent negative features ranging from inflated public spending, weak economic
competitiveness, pervasive subsidies, weak democratisation structure and enabling the
instrument of economic patronage that sustain and protect the incumbent regime. The domestic
structures become constructed as powerful regimes and barriers to emergent socioeconomic
systems. These pressures foster a strong centralized rigid system that restricts the adoption of
new socio-technical innovations and social contracts required to develop alternative energy
systems.
The need to develop structure that support an incremental phase out of unabated high emitting
carbon asset, compelling incentives with an early transition in focus to mitigate immediate gaps
in variable energy generation while enabling the scale up of green energy. This study advances
a policy options focused on parallel investments in infrastructure that enables timely transition
to a high green energy growth.
7.0 Limitation of the study
Employing a wide range of participants and a broader scope of questions could generate greater
variability in participants' responses. In this way, the sample is not representative of the broader
energy landscape. The results of this study may have overlooked local gaps in assessing the
general acceptance of emergent technologies and the energy transition.
8.0 Conclusion
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This study explored pertinent questions regarding the impact of the incumbent energy system
and actors influencing support or hindrance of the energy transition. The central finding from
this study indicates that the anticipation of the incumbent system to deliver economic benefits
reinforces the incumbent energy regime and delays the energy transition. The findings provide
strong empirical and theoretical support to the body of literature on sociotechnical innovation
and the energy transition in a fossil-based economy. The energy community is less likely to
support the destabilization of the incumbent regime and climate policy on the ground of
economic incentives gleaned from ‘rentierism’. This study highlights the value of incorporating
rentier context and new directions in sustainable policy energy transitions. The empirical
analysis and findings may be generalizable to areas with a similar historical economic and
energy context.
Declaration of conflicting interests
The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship,
and/or publication of this article.
Funding
The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of
this article.
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This preprint research paper has not been peer reviewed. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4470057
Preprint not peer reviewed
