Land Consumption for Current Diets Compared with That for the Planetary Health Diet—How Many People Can Our Land Feed?

Abstract

Nowadays dietary habits in many countries are disconnected from the locally available resources and land. Current diets harm ecosystems and people’s health. (Re-)regionalising food systems and aligning diets with planetary boundaries can be one way to reconnect people to the food that they eat. Within academic discourse, there are numerous debates about the benefits and drawbacks of regional agriculture, and the circumstances that determine the viability of regional agriculture as a preferable approach. An argument that often merges is that feeding a whole population using local resources cannot be accomplished. However, is this true? To test this argument, we used statistical data and created a framework to calculate land consumption in square meters per capita according to different dietary habits, among other factors. This study will focus on scenario analyses for the region of Hesse, Germany—with an emphasis on the livestock sector—as land consumption for the production of meat, milk and eggs is relatively high there. Our results show that the region is far from being able to feed the current livestock population and that it does not have the land to support the livestock needed to sustain current consumption patterns. However, the region could support a smaller livestock population with the implementation of the planetary health diet, especially if farmers were to adopt crop rotation systems and (more) extensive husbandry.

Full text

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Sustainability2023,15,8675.https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118675www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability
Article
LandConsumptionforCurrentDietsComparedwithThat
forthePlanetaryHealthDiet—HowManyPeopleCanOur
LandFeed?
Anna-MaraSchön*andMaritaBöhringer
DepartmentofBusiness,FuldaUniversityofAppliedSciences,60549Frankfurt,Germany;
marita.boehringer@w.hs-fulda.de
*Correspondence:anna-mara.schoen@w.hs-fulda.de
Abstract:Nowadaysdietaryhabitsinmanycountriesaredisconnectedfromthelocallyavailable
resourcesandland.Currentdietsharmecosystemsandpeople’shealth.(Re-)regionalisingfoodsys-
temsandaligningdietswithplanetaryboundariescanbeonewaytoreconnectpeopletothefood
thattheyeat.Withinacademicdiscourse,therearenumerousdebatesaboutthebenefitsanddraw-
backsofregionalagriculture,andthecircumstancesthatdeterminetheviabilityofregionalagricul-
tureasapreferableapproach.Anargumentthatoftenmergesisthatfeedingawholepopulation
usinglocalresourcescannotbeaccomplished.However,isthistrue?Totestthisargument,weused
statisticaldataandcreatedaframeworktocalculatelandconsumptioninsquaremeterspercapita
accordingtodifferentdietaryhabits,amongotherfactors.Thisstudywillfocusonscenarioanalyses
fortheregionofHesse,Germany—withanemphasisonthelivestocksector—aslandconsumption
fortheproductionofmeat,milkandeggsisrelativelyhighthere.Ourresultsshowthattheregion
isfarfrombeingabletofeedthecurrentlivestockpopulationandthatitdoesnothavethelandto
supportthelivestockneededtosustaincurrentconsumptionpaerns.However,theregioncould
supportasmallerlivestockpopulationwiththeimplementationoftheplanetaryhealthdiet,espe-
ciallyiffarmersweretoadoptcroprotationsystemsand(more)extensivehusbandry.
Keywords:self-sufficiencydegree;planetaryhealthdiet;landconsumption;foodsovereignty;
livestock;consumption

1.Introduction
Foodproductionaccountsforaboutone-thirdofthetotalgreenhouse-gasemissions
causedbyhumanactivity[1].Approximately20%oftheseareduetofoodtransport[2].
Globally,oneoutofthreepeopleisoverweightorobese,whereasoneoutofninepeople
isunder-ormalnourished[3].InGermany,about6millionchildrenreceivelunchat
schoolordaycarecentresonaregularbasis,yetoneinsixchildrenisoverweightorobese
[4].Thiscontradictionshowsthatthecurrentfoodsystemisnotworkingproperly;con-
sequently,bothagricultureandconsumptionbehaviourmustbereconsidered.
Shortfoodsupplychainshavebeenshowntohaveapositiveimpactonhealth[5]
(e.g.,ancientvarietiesandlandraces,astheyareoftenmorenutritious,aretypicallymore
cultivatedandsoughtafterinshortfoodsupplychains)[6],climate(e.g.,preservingag-
robiodiversityandreducingCO
2
emissionsfromtransportation)[7,8]andthelocalecon-
omy(e.g.,regionalvalueandjobcreation[9],andlowertransportationcosts)[8,10].Even
beforetheCOVID-19pandemicandtheRussianinvasionofUkraine—twoeventsthat
haveunequivocallyprovedtherisksofdependencyonglobalsupplychains[11,12]—
manyscientists,politiciansandciviliansagreedthatfoodsystemsneededtonotonlybe-
comemoreresource-andclimatefriendly,butalsomoreregional,notleasttobeableto
guaranteenational(food)sovereignty[13–15].Further,regionalisedagriculturecanhelp
Citation:Schön,A.-M.;
Böhringer,M.LandConsumption
forCurrentDietsComparedwith
ThatforthePlanetaryHealth
Diet—HowManyPeopleCanOur
LandFeed?Sustainability2023,15,
8675.hps://doi.org/10.3390/
su15118675
AcademicEditor:HosseinAzadi
Received:31March2023
Revised:11May2023
Accepted:23May2023
Published:26May2023

Copyright:©2023bytheauthors.Li-
censeeMDPI,Basel,Swierland.
Thisarticleisanopenaccessarticle
distributedunderthetermsandcon-
ditionsoftheCreativeCommonsAt-
tribution(CCBY)license(hps://cre-
ativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Sustainability2023,15,86752of38
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promotesustainableagriculturalpractices,asitiseasierforconsumersandpolicymakers
totrackandmonitortheorigin,qualityandsafetyoffoodthisway[16–19].Asthesupply
chainsandtransportationareshorterinregionalisedagriculture,theproductsarefresher
andofhigherquality,andtheyrequirefewerpreservativesorothermethodsthatextend
shelflife[19,20].Forinstance,onestudyfoundthatkitchensthathadswitchedtoregional
supplycouldreducefoodwasteby20%[21].
Sustainablefoodpracticesandfoodsovereigntyarealsodemandedbytheglobal
peasantmovement,LaViaCampesina,whichissupportedbyactorsofnongovernmental
organisations,academia,andthepeasantcommunity,allofwhomstriveformoresustain-
ability,resilienceandfoodsovereigntyintheircommunitiesandregions[15].Keyfactors
infoodsovereigntyincludeprioritisinglocalagriculturalproduction;peasantsandland-
lesspeople’saccesstoland,water,seedsandcredit;therightoffarmersandpeasantsto
producefood;therightofconsumerstodecidewhattheyconsumeandhowandbywhom
foodisproduced;therightofcountriestoprotectthemselvesagainsttoo-low-pricedag-
riculturalandfoodimports;therighttoimposetaxesonexcessivelycheapimportsifthey
committhemselvesinfavourofsustainablefarmproduction;andtherecognitionofthe
rightoffemalefarmers,whoplayamajorroleinagriculturalproductionandfoodsystems
[22].
Themaingoaloffoodsovereigntyistoprioritisepeople’snutritionratherthanneo-
liberalpoliciesandinternationaltrade[22],andtotransformthecurrentfoodsystemfrom
theindustrialisedsystembackintopeasantryfarming.Thecurrentindustrialisedfood
systemcanbetracedbacktoafewhistoricalevents,i.e.,thefirst(1870–1930s)andsecond
(1950–1970s)foodregimes,theGreenRevolution(fromtheendoftheSecondWorldWar 
untilthelate1970s)andtheindustrialisationofagricultureandtradeliberalisation,allof
whichplayedtheirpartinproducingandadvertisingcheapfood,suchascorn,riceand
wheat,butalsoinachievingthemass-productionofanimalproductstofuelcheaplabour
andstrengthenthehegemonicroleoftheUnitedStatesandcapitalism[15,23,24].
Apartfromthenegativeimpactonpeople’shealth,theincreasingdemandforand
dependenceonagriculturalimportsandtheoveralllevelofpoverty,theGreenRevolution
andagro-industrialisationhavesignificantlynegativeimpactsonourclimateandbiodi-
versity[15,22,25].Forinstance,whiletheproductionofcornperacreincreasedby~2.4
timesfrom1945to1970,fuelinputsroseby~3.1times.Asearlyas1973,scholarsdiscov-
eredthat80gallons(897litresper1ha)ofgasolineareconsumedper1acreofcornpro-
duced.Suchexamplesshowcasewhygreenhouse-gasemissionsfromfoodproductionare
sohighnowadays[1].
Withthisinmind,to(re-)gainfoodsovereignty,inmanypartsoftheworld,food
policycouncilsandotherfoodactivists,suchasthetransitiontownmovement,theslow
foodmovement,etc.,havebeenestablished[26–28].Theydemandindependencefrom
globalfoodsupplychainsandresilience,andthatregions,whethersmallorlarge,beable
tofeedthemselvesaccordingtotheavailablearablelandandpastureland.
Ontheotherhand,argumentsagainstshortandmoresustainablefoodsupplychains
persist.Advocatesforthestatusquoarguethatcropsshouldbegrownwherethehighest
yieldscanbeachievedandthattransportcostsandemissionsareonlyasmallpartofthe
totalcost,thushardlyplayingarole[29,30].Lowyieldsarenotaviablesolution,accord-
ingtothisargument,becausepopulationgrowth,incomegrowthandchangingdietsare
predictedtoincreasethedemandforagriculturalproductsbyabout60%by2050(from
thebaseyearof2005)[31,32].TheincreaseinanimalwelfareinGermanyand,thus,the
reductioninthenumberofanimalskeptformeatproductiondemandedbymoresustain-
ablymindedpeopleareincontrasttotheargumentthatmeatshouldnotbecomealuxury
goodthatonlywealthypeoplecanafford[33–35].
Thelobbythatpromotesthisargumentisstrongandsuccessfulinavertinganysig-
nificant(fast)changetowardgreaterclimateprotectionandnatureconservation.
Avarietyofimportantstudieshaveexploredourglobalfoodsystemanditsimpact
ontheenvironment,biodiversity,climateandhealth,focusingonglobaldata[36–40].

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Inordertocalculatetheavailabilityoffoodandtoprovideabasisforagricultural
andfoodpolicy,anumberofmodelsthatarededicatedtothistopicwithdifferentfocuses
alreadyexist.Theseinclude,forexample,FAOmodelssuchasthepartialequilibriumand
computablegeneralequilibriumforforecasts,FoodSecurityModelsforassessingfood
securityandFoodBalanceSheets,whichprovideinformationonimports,exportsand
productionatthenationallevel[41–43].However,thesemodelshavefacedcriticismfor
beinginaccurate,incompleteandneglectingtheecologicalandsocialaspectsofagricul-
ture[32,44–48].Toaddressthiscriticismandtakeregionalspecificsintoconsideration,
ourcalculationsarebasedonregionaldatafromthestateofHesse.Withthisapproach,
weaimtomakeagriculturalproductiondataunderstandableandtangibleattheregional
levelandobtainmoreconcretemeasuresthatfitlocalconditions.Ourscenariosgobeyond
puremodelcalculationsandshowwhatwouldchangeifecologicalagriculturalpractices
wereintegratedandconsumerschangedtheirdietaryhabits.
Additionally,despitescientificreportsandmodelsrepeatedlyshowingthethreatof
climatechangeandtheoveruseoftheEarth’sresources[49],peopleacttooslowlyordo
notreactatalltothethreatsthatwearefacing.Whatisthereasonforthis?Studiesmod-
ellingglobaldatadonotseemtoconvincepeopletoactlocally,possiblybecausethese
dataaretooabstracttounderstandandforeigntopeople’sownexperiences(proximity
effect)[50].Psychologyshowsthatmoreinformationmaynotbethekeytoclimateaction
andthatdoomsdaymessagestendtofail[51].Theuseofstatus,metricsandfriendlycom-
petitionworksbeer:“Carbonfootprintshavebeenusefulbecausepeoplecanimprove.
Youcanactuallyhaveapositivetrajectoryandfeelgoodaboutthat.Thentheycancom-
pete.Everybodylikestohavethatsmileyface;noonelikestohavethatfrownyface”[51].
Withthisinmind,theaimofthisstudyistoprovidepeoplewithatooltocalculate
theirlandconsumptioninsquaremeterspercapita,dependingonthewaytheyeat,and
todeterminetheimpactonfarmers’practices.Withourmetricsathand,peoplewho
changetheirdietaryhabitscandeterminetheirowndecreaseinlandconsumption,award-
ingthemselvesthat“smileyface”.Studyingsmallerareas,butindetail,isessential[32].
Tocalculateandprocessdetails,localconditionsmustbeconsidered,suchasthe
currentlocalsupplyanddemand,typesofagriculture(e.g.,pasturelandvs.arableland),
soilconditions,etc.Eventhoughourapproachfocusesonasmallarea,thestateofHesse
inGermany,weproposethatourfindings,especiallytheapproximatesquaremetresre-
quiredbytheaveragelocalpersontosustaintheirdiet,begeneralisedtoatleastawide
rangeofEuropeanregionsandprobablymostareasoftheGlobalNorth,particularlybe-
causethewaythatfoodconsumptioninCentralGermanyissimilartothatinmanyother
regions[52].
Consideringalltheseargumentsforandagainstalocalandclimate-friendlyfood
system,arangeofresearchquestionsandassumptionsemerge:
RQ1:Howmanyanimalswouldbenecessarytosatisfythedemandforregionalanimal
products(meat,dairyandeggs)inthecontextofcurrentconsumptionpaerns?
RQ2:Canlocallandfeedthenumberofcurrentlykeptlivestockandthenumberoflive-
stocknecessarytoachievea100%degreeofself-sufficiency(SSD)?
RQ3:Howmuchfoodisgrownonlocalfields,andhowmuchwouldbenecessarytofeed
thelocalpopulationinaplant-based,healthy,appealinganddiverseway,asrecom-
mendedbytheplanetaryhealthdiet(PHD)?
Tothispoint,thesequestionshavenotbeenanswered,atleastnotindetail.Weas-
sumedthatthestudiedareaisnotbigenoughtofeedtheanimalsneededforfood—in-
cludingmeat,eggsanddairyproducts—withlocalresources,andthatthecropswerenot
diverseenoughtoprovidehealthyfoodforeveryone.Thus,weraisedthefollowingques-
tion:
RQ4:Howwouldlandconsumptionchangeifeveryoneconsumedinamoreenviron-
mentallyfriendlymanner—specifically,consumingfewermeat,eggsanddairyprod-
ucts,as,forinstance,proposedintheplanetaryhealthdietbytheEAT-Lancet

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Commissionin2019[13]—andagriculturebecamemoresustainableandenviron-
mentallyfriendly?
Toanswerthesequestions,westudiedsixdifferentregionswithinthestateofHesse,
andthewholestateofHesse,infourscenarios.Thefirstscenarioconsiderscurrentcon-
sumptionpaerns,whicharebasedoncurrentcultivationstatisticsandthecurrentnum-
beroflivestock(referredtoascurrentinthefollowing).Thecalculatedself-sufficiencyde-
greesprovideinsightsaboutthesupplysituationsintheseregions.ToanswerRQ1,the
secondscenariocalculatesthelivestocknecessarytomeetthecurrentconsumptionpat-
terns—toreachaself-sufficiencydegreeof100%(referredtoasSSD100%inthefollow-
ing)[53–56],andprovideanswerstoRQ2.Thethird(PHD)andfourth(extensive)scenar-
iosarebasedontheconsumptionrecommendationsoftheplanetaryhealthdietandthus
analysethelivestocknecessaryforboththeadaptedconsumptionpaerns(referredtoas
PHDinthefollowing)andforchangingthetypeofcultivationtoaseven-yearcroprota-
tionsystemandextensivehusbandry(referredtoasextensiveinthefollowing).Scenario
PHDanswersRQ3,whilescenarioextensiveshedslightonRQ4.
2.MethodandConceptoftheStudy
Adetailedframeworkwasestablishedtocalculatethelandconsumptioninm2/capita
andthedifferentlevelsofself-sufficiency.Figure1displaysanoverviewoftheframework
development.ToanswertheresearchquestionsRQ1–3,wefirstidentifiedtheareastobe
studied(step1,cf.2.1RegionsunderConsideration).Wethenlookedatspecificagricultural
statisticsandcurrentdietaryhabitsandtheplanetaryhealthdiet(steps2and3,cf.2.2
SelectedFoodGroups).Toestimatehowmanyanimalsmustbefedwithwhatamountof
fodderperyear,wedefinedfodderexamplesbasedontheliteratureandexpertinterviews
(step4)andtheso-calledherdfactors,stableplaceandslaughterquotas(step5,cf.2.3
AnimalProductionRatesand2.4.LandConsumptionforAnimalFeed).Then,weexcludedthe
plantsusedforenergyproductionfromthetotalandconsideredfurtherassumptions
(steps6and7,cf.2.5PlantsforEnergyProductionand2.6FurtherAssumptions).Equipped
withthisinformation,wewereabletoconsiderdifferentscenarios(steps8–12,cf.2.7The
CalculatedScenarios:Current,SSD100%,PHDandExtensive).

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Figure1.OverviewofFrameworkDevelopment.Theupperpartofthefigureshowsthestep-by-
stepprocedureofthestudyandtheconditionstakenunderconsideration,separatedintomaincon-
ditions(step1to5)andsideconditions(step6and7)andaimingtoprovideanswerstoresearch
questions1to4.Basedonthedefinedconditions,thelowerpartofthefigurepresentstheprocedure
forcalculatingthefourscenarios:calculatinglandconsumptionforcurrentdietaryhabitsandcur-
rentlivestock(steps8a–11a,current);calculatinglandconsumptionforaself-sufficiencydegree
(SSD)of100%basedoncurrentdietaryhabits(steps8b–10b,SSD100%);calculatinglandconsump-
tionforadietbasedontheplanetaryhealthdiet(PHD)andcomparisonwiththeDeutscheGesell-
schaftfürErnährung(DGE;steps8c–11c,PHD);calculatinglandconsumptionforPHDincombina-
tionwithamoresustainabletypeofagriculture,namely,seven-yearcroprotationand(more)ex-
tensivehusbandry(steps8d–12d,extensive).
2.1.RegionsunderConsideration
WespecificallyanalysedthewholeGermanstateofHessetocalculatetheself-suffi-
ciencydegreesandsquaremeterspercapita.LocatedwithinHesseare(1)threegovern-
mentaldistricts(Darmstadt(2),Gießen(3)andKassel(4)),twosmallerregions(themet-
ropolitanareaofFrankfurt/Main,includingalltheborderingcounties(5)andtherural
countyofMarburg-Biedenkopf(6)),whichareshownindetailbelow(Figure2)[57].

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Figure2.LocationoftheAnalysedRegionsandtheirTotalPopulation.Theleftsideshowsregion
1,thewholestateofHesse,whichislocatedinthemiddleofGermany,andtherightsideshows
whereinHessetheregions2–6arelocated.Regions2–4arethegovernmentaldistricts(GD)of
Darmstadt(2),Gießen(3)andKassel(4);region5istheFrankfurtmetropolitanarea(FMPA),con-
sistingofthecityofFrankfurt/Mainandborderingcounties,andpartofregion2;andregion6isa
moreruralarea,thecountyofMarburg-Biedenkopf(M-B),about80kmnorthofFrankfurt,andpart
ofregion3.
2.2.SelectedFoodGroups
Weselectedandadaptedthefoodgroupsusedintheplanetaryhealthdietandcom-
binedthemwithcurrentconsumptionpaernsandtheconsumptionrecommendedby
theplanetaryhealthdiet(PHD)percapita(Table1).SincethePHDrecommends2500kcal
perpersonperday,weadjustedthisfigureto2150kcal(86%),i.e.,thecalculatedmedian
acrosstheagegroupsoftheHessianpopulationandtherespectivequantitiesrequired.
Tab l e1.Consumptioninkg/capitap.a.Inthefirstcolumnontheleft,thedifferentfoodgroups
basedontheplanetaryhealthdietaredisplayed.Inthesecondcolumn,thecurrentconsumption
basedonthestatisticaldataisshown.ThethirdcolumnshowstheannualisedPHDrecommenda-
tioninkg.Thefourthcolumndownscalesthisrecommendationtoadailyintakeof2150kcal/capita,
i.e.,thecalculatedHessianmedianinrelationtotheagegroupslivingintheregionandthecalorie
intakerecommendedbytheGermanNutritionSociety(DGE—DeutscheGesellschaftfür
Ernährung)perdayandagegroup[13,58–62].
FoodGroupCurrentCon-
sumption1
ConsumptionRecommendedbyPHD
2500kcal
ConsumptionRecommendedbyPHD
2150kcal
Cereals85.484.772.8
Legumes0.927.423.5
Potatoes71.718.315.7
Vegetables98.6109.594.2
Fruits66.573.062.8
Plant-oil14.518.916.3
Nuts5.018.315.7
Sugar33.611.39.7
Milk,equiv.diary409.691.378.5

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Eggs(pcs.)239.075.364.8
Redmea
t
42.05.14.4
Whitemeat13.110.69.1
Fish14.110.28.8
1Alldataareexpressedinkgpercapitaperyear(excepteggs).
WeemphasisedthePHDfoodgroups,whicharealsoincludedintheGermanNutri-
tionSociety’s(DGE)recommendationsandforwhichasoliddatabaseisprovided.These
groupsincludegrains,grainproductsandpotatoes,whichareimportantsourcesofen-
ergy,carbohydratesanddietaryfibre[63,64].Thenextfoodgroupscomprisevegetables,
saladandlegumes(suchaspeas,beansandlentils).Vegetablesarerichinvitamins,min-
erals,dietaryfibreandphytochemicals,andlegumesareagoodsourceofproteinand
dietaryfibreandconstituteagoodmeatalternative.Fruitsarerichinvitamins,minerals,
fibreandphytochemicals;nutsandseedsareimportantsourcesofnutrientsandtherefore
partofahealthydiet.Wedidnotincludenutsinourstudy,astheyarehardlycultivated
inHesse.Therearenoexactstatisticsonfruits.Theregionmainlycultivatesstrawberries,
cherriesandapples.Localapplesareusedmainlytoproducejuiceandcider.Asthese
productsgrowonlyincertainareasofHesseandaresoldmostlybymeansofdirectmar-
keting,wedecidednottoincludethem.Milkanddairyareagoodsourceofcalciumand
providehigh-qualityprotein,iodineandvitaminsA,B2andB12.Meatalsoprovideshigh-
qualityprotein,andvitaminB12,selenium,zincandiron.Processedmeatisrichinsatu-
ratedfayacidsandsalt.Whitemeat,asboththeDGEandthePHDstate,ispreferableto
redmeat,asthereisnorelationshipbetweentheformerandcanceraccordingtocurrent
knowledge[63].TheDGEsuggestsamoderateconsumptionofredmeatduetohigh
greenhouse-gasemissionsfromruminants,suchascale,sheepandgoats.ThePHDpro-
posesradicallydecreasingredmeatintakecomparedwiththecurrentaverageintakebe-
causeofhealthissuesandthenegativeenvironmentalimpact[64].Fish,anotherfood
group,isahigh-qualityproteinsource;fayfishspeciesarerichinvaluablelong-chain
omega-3fayacids,andseafishishighiniodine.Wedidnotincludefishinourstudy,as
itishardlycultivatedinHesse.Eggsareagoodsourceofproteinandfat-solublevitamins,
thoughtheyolkishighinfatandcholesterol.Currentstudiesdonotshowanupperlimit
foreggconsumption;however,theDGEdoesnotrecommendanunlimitedamountinthe
contextofaplant-baseddiet[63].ThePHDlimitseggstoaboutoneeggperweek[64].
RapeseedoilisrecommendedbytheDGEasplant-oil,anotherfoodgroup,asitcontains
thelowestproportionofsaturatedfayacids,ahighcontentofmonounsaturatedand
polyunsaturatedfayacids,vitaminEandagoodratioofomega-3fayacidstoomega-
6fayacids[65].ThePHDdoesnotrecommendanyspecificoilbuthighlightstheim-
portanceofunsaturatedfayacids[64].Inourstudy,wecalculatedtheamountofavail-
ableplant-basedfatbasedonrapeseedsandsunflowersbecausebothoftheseplantsare
grownregionally.
TheyieldsperhectarebasedontheGermanFederalStatisticalOffice[66]andcrops
canbefoundinTables A1,A2andA3,respectively,andtheextrapolatedconsumptionby
regioninkgandhaisshowninTablesA4andA5.Yieldsmaysignificantlyvary,depend-
ingonthetypeofsoil,thequalityofseedsusedandtheweatherconditions.
2.3.AnimalProductionRates
Regardinganimalproducts,tocalculatetheactualself-sufficiencydegree,weused
averagedconventionalproductionrates,suchasaveragemilkyieldperanimalgroup
(9358kg/cow/year;averageslaughterweights:230kgpercale,21kgpersheep,11kgper
goatand98kgperpig;chickenlyingperformance:288eggs/chicken/year;slaughter
weightsofpoultry:2kgperbroilerchicken,5.2kgpergoose,10kgperturkeyand2.2kg
perduck).
Theherdfactors(howmanyanimalsneedtobekepttomaintaintheherdatacon-
stantlevel)andtheslaughterrate(howmanyanimals“occupy”astableplaceperyear

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beforetheyareslaughtered)canbefoundinTableA6[67–76].Thesefactorsareimportant
incalculatinghowmuchfeediseatenintotalperyearandnotperanimal.Forextensive
husbandry,someofthesefigureswereadapted,suchaseggs(180insteadof288)(cf.Tab le
A6).
2.4.LandConsumptionforAnimalFeed
Tocalculatehowmuchfoddertheregioncanprovideforwhichnumberandtypeof
animals(permanentpasturelandandarableland),wehadtodefineexemplaryfodder
rationsbasedonthegivenliteratureandexpertinterviews[67,68,77–79](cf.Tables S1and
S2).Ourfodderrationsarebasedonregionalcultivationpractices,suchashighrationsof
maizesilageandcerealsandlowerrationsoflegumesandlucernes.Basedonourconver-
sationswithfarmers,weareawarethattheserationsvarygreatlydependingonthefarm
andregionandthatitisimpossibletoobtainrealisticdatabasedonafewfeedingexam-
ples(eachfarmerhashis/herownfeedingpractices).However,thisstepwasnecessaryin
ordernottomakethecalculationmodeltoocomplicatedorchaotic.
2.5.PlantsforEnergyProduction
WedrewonstatisticsprovidedbythestateofHesseregardingarableland(haand
cultivatedcrops),pastureland,permanentcrops,andtypesandnumberofanimals.These
statisticscanbefoundinTab leS3[80].
Thestatisticsindicatecropsperha,notyieldperregion.Thestatisticsdonotreveal
whichcropsareusedforhumanconsumption,fodderorenergyproduction.However,
wecaninferthatabout95%oflegumesgrownareforfeeding[81],asare—intotal—triti-
cale,lucerne,corn-cobmixandmaizesilage(about20%ofthetotalcropland).Weesti-
matedthatinHesse,atleast2.1%ofwheat,9%ofsilagemaize,1.84%ofsugarbeets,0.4%
ofpotatoes,7.2%ofrapeseedand1%oflegumesareusedforenergyproductionorindus-
trialpurposes[82,83].TableA7showstheresults.TableS4showsthecalculationbasis.
Thesepercentagesweresubtractedfromthetotalamountperfoodgroupandwerenot
consideredinfuturecalculations.
2.6.FurtherAssumptions
Approximately30%ofthetotalproductionofwheatand55%ofrapeseeddonot
enterthemarketforhumanconsumption,becausethereareremainingsharesafterthresh-
ing,millingandoil-pressingprocessesthatcanbefedtoanimalsasprotein-richcakeor
meal.Despiteknowingthattheareasstudieddonothavelargeprocessingplants—such
asoilmills,grainmills,threshingcropprocessingorsugarfactories—westillconsidered
thatallharvestsareinsteadprocessedandconsumedherebyhumansandanimals,in
ordertocalculatethelocalself-sufficiencydegrees.Weexcludedanykindoffoodwaste,
althoughweareawareoftheextentandproblematicnatureofthisloss.Onereasonfor
thisisthatweestimatedthatifsupplychainswerelocalisedandmademoresustainable,
acircuiteconomywouldbebuilt,inturndrasticallyreducingfoodwaste(theleftovers
wouldbefedtoanimals,andtheproductswouldbevaluedmoreandusedwhenavaila-
ble).
2.7.TheCalculatedScenarios:Current,SSD100%,PHDandExtensive
Basedonthesedata,wewereabletomodelthefollowingfourscenarios,focusingon
livestockbeforecalculatinghowmuchlandisleftfortheplant-basedshareofthediet:
 livestockforcurrent:Thenecessaryfeedrequirementsforcurrentlivestockinha(cf.
TableS5)inthedifferentregionsandtheself-sufficiencydegreesofredmeat,white
meat,eggsandmilk/dairyproducts;
 livestockforSSD100%:Thenumberoflivestock,includingherdfactors/stableplaces,
necessarytoensureourcurrentconsumptionpaerns(100%self-sufficiencydegrees
ofanimalproducts;cf.Tab leS9);

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 livestockforPHD:Thenumberoflivestock,includingherdfactors/stableplaces,nec-
essarytoensuretheconsumptionlevelrecommendedbythePHD(100%self-suffi-
ciencydegreesofanimalproducts;cf.TableS10);
 livestockforextensive—livestock,includingseven-yearcroprotationsystem:The
self-sufficiencydegreesofplantsandanimalproductsintheutopiancaseinwhich
allfarmersuseaseven-yearcroprotationsystemandonlykeepanimalsextensively
insteadofintensively(asitismainlypracticedtoday)(cf.Tabl eS11).
Further,wecalculatedtheself-sufficiencydegreesofplantsforhumanconsumption
(cereals(excludingtriticale),sugar,potatoes,oilfromrapeseeds,legumesandvegetables)
basedonthecurrentconsumptionpaernsandthePHDrecommendations(cf.Table S6).
Wedidnotfocusonoilfromsunflower,asitonlyplaysaminorroleinlocalfarming
practices.Foreachscenario,wecalculatedtheapproximatetotalandpercapitanecessary
landconsumptionofpasturelandandcropland.
ThecurrentandSSD100%scenariosaimedtoanswerRQ1(Howmanyanimals
wouldbenecessarytosatisfythedemandforregionalanimalproducts(meat,dairyand
eggs)inthecontextofcurrentconsumptionpaerns?)andRQ2(Canlocallandfeedthe
currentlykeptlivestockandthenumberoflivestocknecessaryfora100%self-sufficiency
degree(SSD)?).ToanswerthefirstpartofRQ3(Howmuchfoodisgrownonlocalfields?),
wesubtractedthearablelandnecessarytoraiselivestockfromthetotaltorevealhow
muchlandisleftfortheplant-basedshareofthediet.Bycalculatingtheself-sufficiency
degree,wecouldanswerthesecondpartofRQ3(Howmuchwouldbenecessarytofeed
thelocalpopulationinaplant-based,healthy,appealinganddiverseway,e.g.,asrecom-
mendedbytheplanetaryhealthdiet(PHD)?).Withtheresultsobtainedsofar,wecon-
firmedourassumptionthattheareastudiedisnotlargeenoughtofeedtheanimalsthat
areneededforfood—includingeggsanddairyproducts—usinglocalresources.Byrecal-
culatingthelandconsumptionforthenecessarylivestockbasedontheplanetaryhealth
diet(PHDscenario),wemathematicallydecreasedthelandconsumptionpercapitaand
provedthatcurrentagriculturalpracticesweresustainableingeneral,albeitnotinline
withLaViaCampesinanordiverseenoughtoprovidehealthyfoodtoeveryone(excep-
tionsexcluded).ThisledustoanalyseRQ4(Howwouldlandconsumptionchangeif
everyoneconsumedinamoreenvironmentallyfriendlymanner,specifically,lessmeat,
eggsanddairyproducts,forinstance,proposedintheplanetaryhealthdiet,whileatthe
sametimeagriculturebecamemoresustainableandenvironmentallyfriendly?)Thelaer
scenarioisinlinewiththeliteraturecallingtoincludesustainableagriculture[32,47].
3.AnalysisoftheStatusQuo:LowSelf-SufficiencyDegrees—WhatMustChange?
Beforepresentingtheresultsindetail,weprovideabriefoverviewoftheregion.
3.1.OverviewoftheStateofHesse
HesseisastateinCentralGermanywithalmost6.3millioninhabitants,298inhabit-
antsperkm²,302.53billionEURGDP(in2021)andanunemploymentrateof4.9%(in
2022)[84].Intotal,15,128farmscanbefoundinthisstate,688ofwhichareunder5ha,
and536ofwhichareover200ha[53].Mostfarmsinthisstatearebetween50and99ha
(3853farms).Only4241ofallthefarmownersworkasfull-timefarmers.Atotalof10,221
farmskeeplivestock,mainlycale(6429farmskeep406,304cale,aboutone-thirdof
whicharedairycows)andpigs(2407farmskeep543,934pigs).Atotalof2108ofthefarms
workorganically,ofwhich1674keeplivestock(63,006livestockunits)[53,69].


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3.2.ArableFarming
InthestateofHesse,atotalof764,705haisusedforagriculture(36%ofthetotal
area).Ofthis,61%isusedascroplandand38%aspastureland,while1%isusedtogrow
permanentcrops,suchasfruits,nuttreesandbushes.
Farmerscultivatevegetableson8285haofland,andalmost32haiscovered;farmers
cultivatestrawberriesonnearly1000haofland[55,56].
Thesharesofmaincropscultivatedoncropland—includingorganiccrops—ineach
regionaredisplayedinTableA1.Theoverallshareoforganicfarmlandinhaisbetween
10and21%,dependingontheregion;theshareoforganicvs.conventionalfarmsvaries
between14and20%.Thestate’sgoalistoincreasetheareaoforganicfarmingto25%by
2025(cf.TableS3)[85].Theareaoforganicfarmingpercropsignificantlyvarieswithtotal
cereals.Inregion1(Hesse),thisareais8%,ofwhichwheat,spelt,Einkornandcorn
maize/corn-cobmixrepresent6%each;ryeandtriticale,16%each;barley,4%;oat,27%;
othercereals,suchasEmmer,millet,buckwheatandsorghum,42%;silagemaize,3%;
sugarbeets,2%;potatoes,11%;rapeseeds,0%;andlegumes,35%.Thedatashowthatthe
maincropcultures,suchascerealsandmaize,havearatherlowshareoforganicallypro-
ducedcrops,whereasnicheproducts,suchasEmmer,oatandbuckwheathavearather
highorganicshare.
3.3.CurrentProductionandConsumptionofAnimalProducts
About580,000grazinganimals—includingcloseto35,000horses,roughly544,000
faeningpigs,closeto33,000breedingsows,1.1millionbroilersandotherpoultryand
nearly1.5millionlayinghens—arecurrentlykeptinregion1(cf.TableS5)[53,69].
Theself-sufficiencydegreeofanimalproductsvariesquitesignificantlybyregion
andproduct(cf.Figure3andTable S8,SSDanimalproducts).Thecurrentproductionof
animalproductsisthehighestinregion4(e.g.,SSDofmilk:111%;SSDofredmeat:132%).
Region5hasmostinhabitants,thelowestshareofagricultureand,thus,lowself-suffi-
ciencydegreesofanimalproducts(e.g.,SSDofwhitemeat:1.1%;SSDofeggs:14%).Re-
gion3andregion6,whichispartofregion3,raisecaleanddairycowsintensively,but
stillcannotmeetthelocaldemand(e.g.,inregion3,SSDofmilk:64%;SSDofredmeat:
54%).Whitemeatandeggsareonlyproducedtoaconsiderabledegreeinregion4(SSD
ofwhitemeat:125%;SSDofeggs:55%).


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Figure3.CurrentAnimalProductConsumptionbyRegion1to6.Region4isananimal-producing
region,withmoremilkandredandwhitemeatbeingproducedthanconsumed.Inallareasother
thanregion4consumptionexceedsproductionforallfoodtypes.
3.4.CalculatedNumberofAnimalsforCurrentConsumptionandConsumptionAccordingto
PHDRecommendations
Thenextstepoftheanalysiswastocalculatethenumberofanimalsnecessaryto
ensurethecurrentlevelofconsumptionofanimalproductsineachregion(SSD100%;cf.
TableS9),toensuretheconsumptionrecommendedbythePHD(PHD;cf.TableS10)and
tosustaintheconsumptionrecommendedbythePHDwithextensiveanimalhusbandry
andthuslower/sloweroutputperanimal(extensive;cf.TableS11).Figure4showsthere-
sultsofregion1,thewholestateofHesse,andFigureA1showstheresultsofallthere-
gions.Theherdfactors/stableplacesreportedinTableA6wereincludedinthecalculation
oftheresults.Thecalculationofthelivestocknecessaryforthedifferentdietscanbefound
inTabl eS12.InHesse,forexample,manymoreanimalswouldbeneededtomeetlocal
demand.Ifalltheinhabitantsweretoeatasrecommendedbytheplanetaryhealthdiet,
thefarmerswouldhavetokeepfarlesslivestock.Ifeveryoneintheregionateasrecom-
mendedbythePHDandthelivestockwerekeptextensively,thenumberofanimals
wouldincreasetoPHD,butonlyslightly.Theresultsoftheotherregionsaresimilar.Only
inregion5,themostpopulatedone,isthedifferencebetweenthecurrentandnecessary
livestock(PHD)lessextremebecausefewanimalsliveintheregion.Forpoultrykeptto
producemeat,thedifferencesarealsolessnotable,becausethePHD-recommendedpoul-
trylevelsarequitehigh.TheresultsinFigure4answerRQ1(Howmanyanimalswould
benecessarytosatisfythedemandforregionalanimalproducts(meat,dairyandeggs)in
thecontextofcurrentconsumptionpaerns?).Forinstance,inregion1,currently124,750
dairycowsandabout544,000pigsarekept,thoughalmost363,800dairycowsandabout
1millionfaeningpigsarenecessary.IfeveryoneatebythePHD,region1wouldonly
need61,000dairycowsand104,000faeningpigs,whichwouldincreasetoabout128,000
and139,000extensivelykeptdairycowsandpigs,respectively(cf.TablesS5,S9–S11).

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Figure4.CurrentLivestockinComparisonwithNecessaryLivestock.Thenumberoflivestock
neededinSSD100%exceedsthenumberofcurrentlykeptlivestock(current),whereasthenumber
oflivestockneededinPHDismuchlower.Ifalltheanimalswerekeptextensively(extensive),the
numberswouldincreaseslightlytoPHD.
3.5.CalculationofFeedQuantitiesandLandConsumptionRequiredforLivestock
ThenextstepbasedontheresultsinFigures3and4wastodeterminetheamountof
feedrequiredforthelivestockofthescenarioscurrent,SSD100%andPHD(fortheexten‐
sivescenario,seeSection3.8).Thisstepisnecessaryinassessingthelandconsumptionfor
thecurrentdietandfortheplanetaryhealthdiet.
Basedonourfodderexamplesandyields(mainlyfrom2021[66]),wecalculatedthat
thelivestockcurrentlykeptinthedifferentregions(1to6)wouldusebetween62%(region
3)and80%(region4)oftheavailablepasturelandandbetweenabout34%(region5)and
75%(region4)oftheavailablecrop-landifthetotalamountoffodderwereproduced
locally(cf.Figure5).AssuminganSSDof100%,thenecessaryamountoffeedingwould
exceedtheregions’resourcesbyupto409%(region5)forpasturelandandby256%(re-
gion5)forcropland.Ontheotherhand,basedonthePHDconsumptionrecommenda-
tions(i.e.,theconsumptionoffeweranimalproducts),theregionswouldonlyneedbe-
tween14%(region4)and65%(region5)ofpasturelandandbetween14%(region4)and
47%(region2)ofcropland,clearlyindicatingthatextensivehusbandrywouldbepossible.
Themainargumentforkeepingcale(includingdairycows)isthatruminantsare
capableofprocessingnon-ediblegrass,clovergrassandlucerneintovaluableproteinfor
humans,althoughtheyemitahighshareofmethaneasaresultoftheirdigestiveprocesses
[36].Regardingtheforageexamples,pasturelanddoesnotseemtobeusedoptimally,as
outofthe294,288haoftheavailablepasturelandinregion1,only208,985hawasusedin
ourcalculation(Figure5,leftbars).Apartfromthepotentiallyunderestimatedfeedra-
tionsinourforageexamples,intheseregions,itcanbeobservedthatmanyanimalshave
tostayinthebarnbecausedirectgrazingisnotpossible,requirestoomucheffortoris
simplydifficultduetopoorweatherconditions.Inaddition,theproportionofconcen-
tratedfeedisquitehighincomparisontopastureforagefordairycowsandcale,somilk
andmeatyieldsarehigh.Regardingregionalgrazingpractices,hardlyanyhybridgrazing
ispractised,whichiscorroboratedbythelowsharesofgoatsandsheepinthetotallive-
stock(0.4%ofgoatsand1%ofsheep).IntheSSD100%scenario,mostregionswouldnot
haveenoughpasturelandtofeedalltheanimals(thenecessaryamountforregion1is
482,996ha),contrarytothePHDscenario.IfeveryonewastoeataccordingtothePHD
recommendations,therewouldbeenoughgrazinglandforalltheanimalsthatwould
thenbeneeded(80,647haofpastureland).
Thecultivationoflucerne,clovergrassandlegumes(statusquo:mainlyfieldbeans
andfieldpeasforfeedinglivestock)oncroplandisgoodforsoilfertility,asnitrogenis
boundandisagoodsourceofproteinforanimals—notonlyforcaleanddairycows,but

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alsoforpigsandpoultry[86,87].Especiallyorganicfarmerscultivatingaccordingtoper-
ennialcroprotationhaveclovergrasssilageandlegumesinstockfortheiranimalsinthe
winter[68,81].Accordingtothestatistics,theoverallamountoflucerneandclovergrass
isonly1.14%ofthetotalcultivatedareainHesse(cf.TableS7)[66].Thequantitiesgrown
arefartoosmalltofeedthecurrentlocallivestock(availablelandinregion1:5300hafor
lucerneandclovergrass,and13,277haforlegumes).Noregiongrowsnearlyenoughof
theseproteincropsneededforthecurrentlivestock(region1:33,823haforlucerne/clover
grassand58,312haforlegumes),letalonethenecessarylivestock(region1:74,067hafor
lucerne/clovergrass,and120,601haforlegumes).NoteventhelivestockofPHDcouldbe
keptwiththecurrentquantityoflucerne(region1:14,447ha)andlegumes(region1:
21,522ha).Thesmallnumberofproteincropssuggeststhatmostanimalsarefedimported
products(e.g.,soybeansfromBrazil).
Maizesilageisaveryimportantforagecropforcaleanddairycows,asitcanbe
usedtoincreasethemilkyieldofdairycows,amongotherapplications.Itisonlypro-
ducedinareaswhereitgrowswell.TheamountofmaizesilageinHesse—excludingus-
ageforenergyproduction—isabout40,000ha.Althoughweadjustedourforageexamples
tothestatisticallygrownamountofmaize,themaizecurrentlyusedtofeedlivestock
amountsto21,510ha(region1).Thus,wesuspectthattheshareofmaizegrownforenergy
productionisevenhigherthanweassumed.Theamountofmaizesilagewouldnotbe
enoughforSSD100%inregions1(necessary:51,272ha),2(necessary:32,796ha;available:
10,636ha)and5(necessary:24,049;available:8330ha).Theamountofcerealsgrownis
enoughforlivestockforthecurrentscenarioinalltheregions.Itwouldalsobeenoughfor
SSD100%inregion1(necessary:191,130ha;available:286,368ha),region3(necessary:
32,530ha;available:71,947ha),region4(necessary:40,662ha;available:126,916ha)and
region6(necessary:7433ha;available:19,595ha).Thehighestshareinfeedingisdueto
pigfarming.
Oil-seedcropsarealsofedtoanimals,especiallycale;however,onlyacertain
amountisfedtothem,astheremainingshareafteroilpressingishighinproteins.Since
wedonotknowthecurrentlyfedsharesofcompleteoilseedsandoilpresscakes,wecal-
culatedtheshareofoilseeds(rapeseedsandsunflowerseeds)inwholeseeds.Inallthe
regions,theamountofcurrentlygrownoilseedsisenoughtofeedthecurrentlivestock,
butnotenoughtofeedthenecessarylivestock(exceptinregion4).ForPHDconsumption,
thecurrentcropswouldbesufficient.Ta blesS2,S9andS10showarablecropsdivided
accordingtoanimalgroupsandaggregatedaccordingtothecalculatednecessarynumber
ofanimalsperdiet(livestockfeedofthescenarioscurrent,SSD100%andPHD,respec-
tively).
Thecalculatedself-sufficiencydegreesprovideevidencethatthelocallandcannot
feedthecurrentlykeptlivestocknorthelivestocknecessarytoachievea100%SSD(RQ
2).


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Figure5.LandConsumptionofCurrentLivestockinComparisontoNecessaryLivestock,Regions
1to6.Eachchart(regions1–6areshownfromthetopleft(region1)totheboomright(region6))
showstheamountofavailablepasturelandandarableland(leftbar);theamountthatthecurrent
livestockneedsforfodder(secondleftbar,current);theamountoffoddernecessarytofeedthelive-
stockinSSD100%(thirdleftbar);andtheamountoffoddernecessaryinPHD(rightbar).Thebars
arecomposedofsegmentsrepresentingthedemandofindividualanimalgroupsandareshown
stacked(cf.Table sS2,S9–S11).
3.6.DirectHumanConsumption—Self‐SufficiencyDegree(SSD100%andPHD)
Thenecessarycurrentconsumptionofplantsamountsto226,522haforregion1,
whichdecreasesslightlyinthePHDscenario(region1:225,090ha).Byonlyconsidering
plantscurrentlygrownforhumanconsumption(wheat,spelt,Einkorn,rye,barley,oat,
othercereals,sugarbeets,potatoes,oilseedsandlegumes)andconsideringthatlegumes
comprisingonly5%ofthetotalamount—as95%oflegumesaregrownforanimalfeeding
andvegetables—thetotalavailablelandis328,829ha(region1).TableA8showstheavail-
ablehacurrentlyusedandthecalculatedself-sufficiencydegreesforthecurrentconsump-
tion(TableA9)andforadietbasedonthePHD(TableA10).Theoverallself-sufficiency

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degree(theavailablehainrelationtothehanecessaryforaplant-baseddiet)regarding
currentconsumptionpaernsisbetween75%(region2)and324%(region4),anditis
between76%(region2)and326%(region4)intermsofPHDrecommendations.Forsingle
crops,however,thepicturelooksdifferent.Thecultivationofcerealsissufficientinallthe
regions,andisbetween158%(region2)and748%(region4).Sugarbeets(consideringthat
5kgofsugarbeetsarenecessarytoproduce1kiloofsugar)arecultivatedmorethanis
currentlyneededinregion1(137%),region2(115%),region4(264%)andregion5(130%),
butnotinregion3(74%)andregion6(66%).ThePHDrecommendseatingonlyone-third
ofthecurrentsugarintake;thus,forPHDconsumption,theamountofcultivatedsugar
beetswouldbemorethanenoughinalltheregions(region6:219%;region4:883%).
TheSSDofpotatoesisbetween22%(region6)and56%(region2),whichincreases
to83%(region6)and212%(region2)basedonthePHD.TheSSDofoilseeds(considering
that2.3kgofseedsarenecessarytoproduce1kgofoil)iscurrentlybetween17%(region
5)and109%(region4).Thesenumbersincreaseto25%(region5)and159%(region4)
whenconsideringPHDintake.Theshareoflegumesnotcultivatedforlivestockcancur-
rentlyonlycoverbetween4%(regions2and5)and24%(region4);consideringthePHD
recommendations,thesharewoulddecreaseto0.4%(regions2and5)andto2.6%(region
4).TheSSDofvegetablesisbetween3.7%(regions3and6)and43%(region2),witha
slightincreaseupto4.3%(regions3and6)andto50%(region2),whenconsideringthe
PHD.
Whereasthelandforalocallybasedandplant-baseddietisavailable,thestatistical
datashowsthatthecurrentlycultivatedtypesofarablecropsareinadequatetoprovide
thepopulationwithavariedandhealthydiet(RQ3).Thefiguresvividlyillustratehow
theregionalfarmers’croppingplansdonotadapttotheregionalneeds,buttoexisting
livestock,theglobalmarket,subsidies,andarablecropsthatarelesslabour-intensive.The
insignificantshareoftheothercereals(about0.5%ofthetotalcerealproductioninallthe
regions),suchassummercereals,milletandsorghum,andnon-cerealssuchasbuckwheat
andamaranth,allofwhichareimportantforahealthy,balancedandvarieddiet,supports
thisstatement.
3.7.LandConsumptionduetoConsumptionPaerns—TotalandperCapita
AsstatedaboveanddisplayedinFigure5,thepasturelandiscurrentlyunderutilised
(region3:62%;region4:80%).InSSD100%,onlyinregion3(89%),region4(80%)and
region6(100%),wouldtherebeenoughpasturelandavailabletofeedthenecessarylive-
stock(cf.TableS8).PasturelandwouldbesignificantlyunderutilisedinthecaseofPHD
(i.e.,14%forregion4and65%forregion5).
Inotherwords,eachinhabitantneedsapprox.767m2ofpasturelandfortheircurrent
dietaryhabits(slightdeviationsperregionareduetothedifferentnumbersofequines
includedinthecalculationforpastureland),buttheavailablelandvariesbetween185
m2/capita(region5)and974m2/capita.Theunequaldistributiondoesnotbalanceoutfor
thewholestateofHesse,andeachinhabitanthas467m2/capitainsteadofthenecessary
767m2/capita.WhenconsideringthePHDrecommendations,thissharedecreasestoap-
prox.128m2.Inthiscase,noregioncouldlivebeyonditsmeans.
Bycombiningtheshareofthecroplandnecessaryfortheplant-baseddietandthe
shareofthecroplandnecessarytofeedlivestock,wecanvisualiseifandtowhatextent
theregionscouldlivebeyondtheirmeans(Figure6).Basedontheresourcesnecessaryto
feedcurrentlivestockplustheshareofcurrentplant-basedconsumptionshares,the
croplandwouldbesufficientonlyinregion3(available:929m2/capita;necessary:905
m2/capita;respectively,97%ofcroplandnecessaryincomparisontotheexisting
cropland),region4(100%)andregion6(85%).InthecaseofSSD100%,onlyregion4
(available:1476m2/capita;necessary:1212m2/capita;respectively82%ofthecroplandnec-
essaryincomparisontotheexistingcropland)wouldhaveenoughcroplandtodirectly
feedlivestockandhumans.Region1(thewholestateofHesse)exceedsitscropland

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resourcesby81%(inthecaseofSSD100%).InPHD,mostregions,exceptregions2(154%)
and5(148%),cansupplythedemand(region3:56%;region4:37%;region6:50%of
croplandnecessaryincomparisontotheexistingcropland).
Mostimportantly,ifalltheHessianinhabitantsconsumedasthePHDrecommends,
theresourceswouldbeenough(74%ofthecroplandnecessaryincomparisontotheex-
istingcropland).Eachinhabitantwouldhave648m2ofcroplandbutwouldonlyneed482
m2.

Figure6.AvailableCroplandinComparisontoCroplandNecessaryforPlant-basedDietplus
CroplandNecessarytoFeedLivestockinm2perCapitainRegions1–6.Theleftbarshowstheavail-
ablecropland;thesecondbardisplaysthecroplandnecessarytocovertheshareoftheplant-based
dietandtofeedcurrentlivestock;thethirdbarshowsthecroplandnecessarytocompletelyensure
localconsumptionpaerns;andthefourthbarillustratesthecroplandnecessarytoensurecon-
sumptionasrecommendedbythePHD.
Consideringthat,mathematically,eachofushasonly2000m2ofcroplandforour
totalconsumption(includingbread,rice,potatoes,fruit,vegetables,oil,sugar,nuts,etc.;
drinks,suchasjuice,beer,wine,etc.;animalproducts,suchasmeat,dairyandeggs;cot-
ton,linen,etc.,forourclothes;tobaccoforsmokers;andbio-gasorbio-dieselandrenew-
ablerawmaterialsforindustrialpurposes[88]),theusageofnearly1200m2(SSD100%)
ofcroplandcouldbeconsideredanon-balancedshare.Achangeinbehaviourtowards
thePHD,or,ingeneral,anadaptationofone’sdietconsistingoffeweranimalproducts,
seemstobeimperativeifregionsdonotwanttocontinueto‘livetoolarge’.
Atthesametime,ourdatashowsthatnotmuchwouldbeachievedifonlythediet
changed,andnotfarmers’cultivationplans.Regardingtheindividualcrops,therefore,in
thecaseofPHD,aboveall,thepasturelandwouldnotbeusedefficiently,andthelocal
plant-baseddietofhumanswouldnotbecomemorevaried.Rather,morepasturelandand
cropscouldtheoreticallybeexportedorburned.Whilethespreadoftheplanetaryhealth
dietwouldmakeapositivecontributiontoamoresustainablepercapitaconsumptionin
ha,amorelocaldietwouldberelativelyone-sided;moreover,theshareofcroplandre-
quiredfortheproductionofmeat,dairyandeggswouldcontinuetocompetewithdirect
humanfood(plants),asanimalswouldcontinuetoreceivealargeshareofhuman-edible
cerealsandotherarablecrops.Acertaindegreeofindependencefromglobalfoodchains
andadevelopmenttowardfoodsovereigntyispossibleinHesse,butonlyiftheconsump-
tionofanimalproductsisdrasticallyreduced.Isitpossibletoswitch(back)topeasantry
farming,andthusagroecologicalpractices,asdemandedbyLaViaCampesinaandother

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organisations,toensuremoreenvironmentallyfriendlydiets,whileatthesametimeag-
riculturebecomesmoresustainableandenvironmentallyfriendly(cf.RQ4)?
3.8.‘WhatWouldChangeif…’:Self‐SufficiencyDegreesbasedonthePlanetaryHealthDietplus
CropRotationandExtensiveAnimalHusbandry
Withthecollecteddataandtheperformedanalyses,wecandeterminethelimitsof
thestudiedregions(feedingeveryoneavaried/diversediet),theimpactofthelivestock
thattheregionscurrentlykeep,theimpactofthelivestockthattheregionsshouldkeepto
achieveanSSDof100%andtheresultingimpactinthecasewhereeveryoneeatsaccord-
ingtothePHD.Althoughinthelaercase(PHD)therewouldbesufficientlandforthe
reducednumberoflivestockandanimalswouldcontinuetoreceiveasignificantshareof
human-ediblecerealsandotherarablecrops.Thus,inordertomakeagriculturemore
sustainable,animalfeedingshouldalsochange,evenifthismeansdecreasingtheproduc-
tionoutputoflivestock(whichwouldnotbeanissueunderawidespreadadoptionofthe
PHD).
InEuropealone,theassumedsoillossisaround970milliontonnesperyeardueto
erosion.Becauseofthisandthereasonsmentionedabovethatadvocateforthe(re-)local-
isingandgreeningoffoodchains,asensiblestepcouldbetoshiftagriculturalpracticesto
moresustainableones.However,whatexactlywouldchange,andisthereenoughland
availablefor(more)extensivelivestockfarming?Toanalysethisscenario,wechoseadif-
ferent,utopian-basedmethod.Weelaboratedaseven-yearcroprotationsystembasedon
expertinput[68]andtheliterature[89,90].Thecroprotationsystemconsistsoftwoyears
ofclovergrassandlucernefollowedbyoneyearofhigh-yieldingplants,suchaswinter
wheat,sunflowerorrapeseed.Yearfourisforgrowingpotatoes,oatormedium-to-low-
yieldingvegetables.Thefifthyearisforgrowinggrainlegumes,suchassoya,sweetlu-
pines,chickpeasorlentils,followedbyhigh-to-medium-yieldingplantssuchassugar
beets,sunflower/rapeseed,vegetables,winterwheatandgreenorsilagemaize,inyearsix.
Theseventhyearclosestherotationcropsystemwithalow-yieldingcereal,namely,oat,
barleyorrye.Itmustbestatedthatwedidnotincludethedifferentsoiltypesandquali-
ties—whichcanbemoreorlesssuitableforthecultivationofindividualarablecrops—
norfoodwaste.
Next,weseparatedtheavailablehafordirecthumanconsumptionandtheavailable
haforanimalfeeding;firstly,weconsideredthehanecessaryforaplant-basedself-suffi-
ciencydegreeof100%basedonthePHD,andsecondly,wesubtractedthesharesremain-
ingafteroilandflourprocessing.Theremainingshareswereconsideredforanimalcon-
sumption(cf.TableS12).Wethendecreasedtheoutput(milk,eggsandanimalgrowth
rate;cf.TableA6),becauseinthisutopianscenario,thepasturelandandlucernesmainly
remainforanimalfeed.The‘output’ofdual-useanimalswasalsoincluded.Thisreduc-
tionwouldentailanincreaseintherequirednumberoflivestockincontrasttothePHD
scenario(cf.TablesS10andS11).
Asmentionedabove,thenecessarym²/capitafortheplant-basedconsumptionshare
basedonthePHDand2150kcaladdsupto358m2/capita.Theavailablecroplandper
capitabasedonaseven-yearcroprotationsystemwouldvarybetween206m2(region2)
and955m2(region4).RegardingthewholestateofHesse(region1),eachpersonwould
have420m2ofcropland(insteadofthe521m2potentiallyavailablefordirecthumancon-
sumptionwithoutacroprotationsystem)foraplant-baseddietand318m2ofcropland
foranimalfeeding(cf.TableS13,mainlyconsistingofclovergrassandlucernes,30%
wheatthatfarmerscannotsellduetoitsquality,corn,production-relatedsugarandoil
residues).TofeedthenumberoflivestocknecessarybasedonthePHD,305m2/capitaof
croplandand393m2/capitaofpastureland(availablepastureland:467m²/capita)would
benecessaryinregion1.Inpercentage,landconsumptionfortheplant-basedshareand
fortheconsumptionofanimalproductsofextensivelykeptlivestockwouldbe85%and
96%oftheavailablecropland,respectively(totalof81%),and84%oftheavailablepas-
tureland.Regions3,4and6couldalsosatisfylocaldemand,butthepopulation-intensive

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areas(i.e.,regions2and5)couldnotmeetlocaldemand(bothintermsofcroplandand
pastureland)andwouldhavetobesuppliedbyotherHessianregions.Figure7illustrates
theavailablepasturelandincomparisonwiththenecessarypastureland(extensive)and
theavailablecroplandincomparisonwiththenecessarycropland(extensive),includingits
divisionbetweendirecthumanconsumptionandanimalfeed.Ifeveryoneadaptedthe
PHDandfarmersadjustedtheircroprotationplansaccordingly,ourcalculationsshow
thatdespitehigherlivestocknumbers,moreextensivelivestockproductionwouldbepos-
siblewhilestillfeedingtheregionadequately.

Figure7.SharesofAvailableCroplandinComparisonwithCroplandNecessaryforDirectHuman
Consumption(PHD)andforAnimalFeed(Extensive)inRegions1to6inm²/capita.Theshares
werecalculatedbasedonaseven-yearcroprotationsystemandextensivehusbandry(feedonly
lucerne/glovergrass;remainingcropsnotsuitableforhumanconsumption).
Regardingeachcropinparticular,themainchallengewouldbetomeetthedemand
forlocaloilfromoilseeds,whichwouldnotbesatisfied,basedonourcalculations(cf.
TableS13).Theproportionoffayacidsinrapeseedis45%,soonlythisproportioncanbe
assumedforthesupplyofoilseedcrops.Basedonthecroprotationassumedhere,the
supplyofvegetableoilsfromtheregionwouldnotbeensured.However,ascropland,in
reality,isnotdividedinto49shares—aswasmathematicallyperformedinourscenario—
butisdividedbyfarmandasthefarms’croprotationsystemsaresmaller,thepossibility
ofmeetingdemandexists—somuchthatarablelandcouldbeusedtogrowotherinter-
estingarablecropstomeettheneedforseeds(suchashempseeds,linseed,andpumpkin
andsunflowerseedsasreplacementsforthePHD-proposedneedfornuts;cf.Tab leS13:
totallandconsumptionrelatedtoavailablevs.necessarycroplandandpasturelandinre-
gion1:81%).
TakingintoconsiderationtheamountofanimalproductsbasedonthePHDandthe
2150kcalperdayperperson,thenumberofanimalscouldbedecreasedfromthecurrent
0.33animals/capitatoapprox.0.03animals/capitaforredmeatandfromapprox.0.62
poultry/capitato0.43poultry/capita(SSD100%incomparisontoPHD,includingherd
factors/stableplaces).Inotherwords,currently,onedairycowcansatisfythedemandof
17people,butitcouldsatisfythatofnearly90iftheoverallconsumptiondecreasedinline

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withtherecommendationsofthePHD.Iftheseanimalswerekeptextensively,andthus
themilkyieldpercowdecreased,thenumberofcowswouldincrease(respectively,one
cowcouldthensatisfythedemandof49.2peopleinsteadof90people).Thelandforex-
tensivefeedingwouldbeavailable,basedonPHDconsumptionpaerns.
Theeffectoncaleisevengreater:whereas,today,nearly10peopleeatonecowper
year,onecowcouldfeed103peoplewhenconsideringPHDconsumption(sheep:27vs.
256people;goats:27vs.258people;pigs6vs.60people).Inthecaseofmoreextensive
livestockproduction,thesenumberswouldalsodecreaseagainto82personspercale,
and45.3personsperpig.Thenumbersforgoatsandsheepwouldnotchange,sinceeven
todaytheseanimalsaremainlykeptextensivelyinthestudiedregions.Regardinglaying
hens,theshareswouldmorethantriple(1.2peopleinSSD100%vs.4.4peopleinPHD,
thoughfallingto2.8personsperhenwhenkeptmoreextensively).Regardingwhitemeat
(broilerchickensandotherpoultry),thedifferencesarelesssignificant,asthePHD’al-
lows’ratherlargeamountsofwhitemeattobeconsumedperyear;whereas,todate,one
broilerchicken(occupyingonestableplace)couldmeetthedemandof1.8people,itcould
meetthedemandof2.6people(PHD)or1.2people(extensive),andotherpoultrycould
satisfythedemandofnearly22people,comparedwiththecurrentdemandof15people
(nodifferencecalculatedforextensive,partlybecausetheregionallyproducedquantities
arerelativelyinsignificantforcurrentconsumption).Figure8aimstoillustratethesedif-
ferences.

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
Figure8.NumberofPersonsoneAnimalCanFeed(Meat,Dairy,Eggs)inSSD100%,PHDand
Extensive.Forinstance,currently,onecowensurestheannualdairyconsumptionof17.3persons,
butitcouldensuretheconsumptionofnearly90personsifeveryoneconsumedasrecommended
bythePHD.Iflivestockwerekeptextensively,milkperformancewoulddecrease;thus,onecow
wouldonlyensuretheconsumptionofabout50persons,etc.Therearenodifferencesingoats,sheep
andotherpoultrybetweenPHDandextensive.
Inbrief,ourcalculationsconfirmedthatalocal,diverseandsustainabledietwithin
planetaryboundariesandbasedonpeasantryandagroecologicalfarmingispossible(RQ
4)ifthepopulationdrasticallyreducesitsconsumptionofanimalproducts,farmers

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cultivateonthebasisofcroprotationsystems,animalsarekept(more)extensivelyagain
anddual-purposeanimalsfindtheirwaybackintoourconsumptionbehaviour.
4.Discussion—WeMustChangeOurConsumptionLevel
Wewantedtovisualisethestatusquoandmaketheimpactofourdietcomprehensi-
ble.Ourresultsofthecalculatedself-sufficiencylevelsbasedonthecurrentconsumption
paernsshowthatregions1to6arenotabletofeedthelocalpopulationandarethusfar
fromfoodsovereigntyorindependencefromglobalsupplychains.Thecurrentprevailing
consumptionbehaviourdoesnotallowtheseregionstoturnawayfromindustrialised
agriculture,nortotransformtheirfoodsystemintopeasantfarmingonabroaderscale.
Wecouldalsoshowthateventhoughconsumptionpaernschangedasrecommendedby
theplanetaryhealthdiet,thecurrentlycultivatedtypeofarablecropsarenotsufficientto
providethepopulationwithavariedandhealthydiet.Theseareimportantresultsbe-
causethedemandforshortfoodsupplychainsandthe(re-)localisationoffoodcannotbe
metwiththestatusquo,norwithchangingonlyoneside(here,theconsumptionbehav-
iour).Ergo,ifthestatusquoprevails,shortfoodsupplychainscanonlybesuccessfully
builtforsmallconsumergroups,butnotforthemasses,includingout-of-homecatering,
which,inGermanyalone,serves17millionpersonsdaily[63,65].Thus,oursecondgoal
wastoexplainifandhowfoodsupplyanddemandcandeveloptogethertowardsustain-
ability.Thiswasdoneonthebasisofourutopian-basedscenarioanalysis:extensive.Adiet,
suchasthePHD(lowratesofsugarandanimalproducts),incombinationwithsustaina-
blefarmingpractices,wouldnotonlybegoodfortheenvironment,biodiversityandsoil,
butalsoleadtohealthierlifestylesandlowerratesofobesityinthepopulation.Weem-
phasisethatsustainablefarmingpracticesarekeyformitigatingclimatechange,asprevi-
ousstudiesconfirm[13–15,40].
Cultivatingusingconventionalagriculturalmethodsisneithersustainablenorcon-
ducivetowardgainingindependencefrombigcorporationsandcountriesproducingfer-
tilisersandpesticides.Researchonagroecologyalreadyindicatesthatsustainablefarming
practicescouldfeedtheworld,especiallywhenusingleguminouscovercropsasfertiliser
[91],andatthesametime,combatclimatechange[15,92,93].Toarrivethere,thestatus
quomethodsofproducingfoodneedtobereconsidered.Inthecaseofvegetables,for
instance,researchfromtheUKindicatesthatgardeninglotsandsmallmarketgardening
farmscanproducesignificantyieldsperm²,usingecologicallysoundcultivationmethods
andaids,suchasowningcompost,sheepwoolpellets,etc.[94].Moreresearchshouldbe
performedoncompostandbiocharasalternativestoanimalmanure,asthecalculated
amountofnearly215,000grazinganimals(scenarioextensive,region1)pluspigsisnot
enoughtofertilise464,000haofcroplandandnearly300,000haofpastureland(according
toexpertsonorganicfarming,onelivestockunitisneededperhectareforfertilising[68]).
Toincreaseyields/m²,amongotherreasons,itisimperativetoundertakefurtherinvesti-
gationsintothefollowingareas:sustainablefarming,includingtraditionalpracticessuch
asmixedcropping,intercroppingsystemsandno-tillfarming;theimpactofdifferentsoil
microbiomesonplants;innovationssuchasprecisionfarming(farming4.0);artificialin-
telligence(cropmanagementandriskrecognition);geneticengineering(fastermatura-
tion,insectanddroughtresistance);andmodernplantbreeding(suchasRiceberryRice)
[95,96].Ourresultssupportthisresearch.Weperformedcalculationswithconventional
yieldstakenfromstatisticalreports.Ifwehadcalculatedusingthecurrentorganicyields,
wecouldnotmathematicallyhaveachieved100%self-sufficiencyonthebasisoftheplan-
etaryhealthdiet,astheseare,asoftoday,about60%oftheconventionalyieldsinthe
regionsanalysed[68].
Therigidinclusionofyieldsperhacouldbeinterpretedasoneoftheweakpointsof
ourmodel,becauselandconsumptionincreasesordecreasesdependingontheyieldsper
haincluded,withvaryingresults.Anotherflawmightbethatthestudiedareaisrather
small;thevariablesconsidered,suchasthefodderexamples,mightsignificantlychange

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inotherareas.Inaddition,theproposedcropsarecertainlynotsuitableforallareasbe-
causeofthedifferentregionalcultivationconditions.Furthermore,ouranalysesdidnot
takeintoconsiderationtheissueoffoodwaste,nordiditaccountforthehighercostof
localproductsincomparisontoimportedones,whichisoftenthedeterminingfactorbe-
hindconsumerpurchasingdecisions,ratherthanmereproductavailability.Moreover,
ourstudyonlyconsiderslandconsumption.Otherresourceconsumptionofagriculture
orotherrelevantenvironmentalimpacts,suchaswateruse[97],wasnotconsideredin
ourstudy.Otherrelevantenvironmentalimpactsshouldplayanimportantroleinfuture
studies.
Havingstatedinthefirstsectionthatpeopleloveandactuponmetrics,suchascar-
bonfootprints,muchmorethanupondoomsdaymessagesorabstractmodelsnotintouch
withlocalcircumstances,webelievethatweprovideimportantfiguresinthisstudy.We
canclearlydemonstratehowmucheachofusconsumesandwhatwouldchangeifweate
differently.Illustrativeresults—suchasthelandconsumptioninsquaremeterspercap-
ita—areimportantinactivatingbehaviouralchangeprocessesinpeople.Byincludinglo-
caldataforlocalpeople,resultsbecomemoretangiblethanresultsgloballyproducedus-
ingabstractmodels.This,togetherwiththecombinationofproductionandconsumption,
webelieve,isthestrengthandthenoveltyofourstudy.Ourframeworkdemonstratesan
approachforotherregionstodeterminetheirlevelofself-sufficiencyusingregionaldata.
ThoughcreatedforandadaptedtotheregionofHesse,itcaneasilybeadaptedtoother
regions,mainlybyadaptingfodderexamples,agriculturalstatisticsandpopulationsize.
Further,itcanbesetinbroadercontexts,suchasGermanyorEurope,becausethecon-
sumptionpaernsanddietbehaviouraresimilar,ifnotthesame.
4.1.ClimateChangeMitigation—AMulti‐LayeredGlobalChallenge
Foracoupleofdecades,demandand,thus,supplyhavedevelopedinaneconomic
butunsustainabledirection,makingfoodsystemsnowresponsibleforaboutone-thirdof
totalgreenhouse-gasemissions.WithGretaThunberg’swordsinmind:‘[…]Iwantyou
topanic.Iwantyoutoactasifyourhousewasonfire[…]’[98],actionhastobetakenin
manyareasatthesametime.Toquicklyreducegreenhouse-gasemissions,andatthe
sametime,achievethetwo-foldobjectiveofahealthierandwell-nourishedhumanity,we
urgentlyneedtotransformourfoodsystems.Oneimportantmaeristoquicklyreduce
theconsumptionofanimalproducts[22,23].Globalchallengesonthisissuearemulti-
layeredandneedtobeapproachedfromdifferentanglessimultaneously.
OneimportantsteptomitigateclimatechangecouldbetheredirectingoftheGreen
Revolutiontowardpeasantryandagroecologyfarming,prioritizingfoodforthepeople
andnotneo-liberalpoliciesandinternationaltrade.Thatthiscouldbeapotentiallyviable
pathisindicatedbyourresultsintheextensivescenario.Toachievethis,weproposeget-
tingfarmersbackintothinkingintermsofacirculareconomyandcultivatingfoodfor
peopleratherthanforlivestock.Asfarmersadapttheirfarmingmethodstothepolitical
willandaredemand-driven,bothpoliciesanddemandmustchange.Policymakershave
greatleverage,astheycanimplementandenforcenewlawsandpoliciesandconduct
wide-reachingcampaignsforchange.Insomepoliticalparties,thisprocesshasbeen
started.TheGermangovernmenthaspublishedanutritionstrategyfocusingonaclimate
friendlyandhealthydietforall.Thisistobeachievedthrougha‘systemicapproachof
behaviouralandprevention,whichtakesintoaccounttheeffectsontheenvironmentand
climateandthedifferentlifestyles[…]’[14].TheEUcommissionhaspublisheditsCom-
monAgriculturalPolicy(CAP)2023–27,seekingtoensureasustainablefutureforEuro-
peanfarmersandprovidingmoretargetedsupporttosmallerfarmswhilefocusingon
climatechangeaction,environmentalcare,preservinglandscapesandbiodiversityetc.
[99].
Supportingandrewardingfarmersisimportantbecausefarmers,asahomogenised
group,arenotknownforperceivingclimatechangeasman-madeandactingaccordingly,

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with66%of4778farmerssurveyedbelievingthatclimatechangeishappeningandonly
8%aributingittohumanactivity[100].
However,topersuadepoliticianstomakenewlawsandpolicies,theyneedtobe
equippedwithaglobalandlocalscientificbackground.Calculationsbasedonlocaldata,
aspresentedinthisstudy,arehelpfultodirectlyshowpolicymakerswhateconomicand
environmentalimpactstheirpoliciesmayhaveonaregion.Policymakerstakingcareof
daycarecentresandschoolscouldhaveahugeimpact,asinGermandaycarecentresand
schools,eachyear,about1.2billionlunchesareoffered[65,101].Ifitbecamemandatory
tocookasrecommendedbythePHD,childrenwouldbefednotonlyhealthilybutalso
inanenvironmentallyfriendlymanner.Ifcanteenssuppliedtheestimated700tonnesof
ingredientslocallyanddemandedsustainableproduction,farmerssignalledindiscus-
sionsthattheywouldadjusttheircroppingplanstomeetthisdemand,aslongasthey
werecompensatedfairlyfordoingso.Thesideeffectsofthistransitionmightbetoget
youngpeopleexcitedagainabout(good)foodproduction,bringingbacklocalprocessing
businessessuchasmills,oilpresses,slaughterhousesandbutchers,andtomakeregional
logisticsefficient.
Ingeneral,out-of-homecateringcanhelpdiscovernewwaystoeat;therefore,can-
teensandcateringbusinessesmustchangetheirmenus.Thehealthy,sustainablemenus
theyhavemustprovideasenseofwell-beingandenjoyment,butstillbefilling.Guests
shouldbeencouragedtotrynewthings.Todecreasetheconsumptionofanimalproducts
andthus,landconsumption,peopleneedtobemadeawareofthemaeronmultiple
levels,suchasthroughnudging,campaigning,experiencingandunderstandingtheur-
gencytodoso.
Whetherthischangeisreallygoingtohappenorwillhappenfastenoughishighly
questionable.Notonlyarehumanscreaturesofhabit,alsonotallpoliciesareworkingin
thedirectionof(re-)localisingfood.Forinstance,theEuropeanUnionworksonfreetrade
agreements,suchasMercosur,whichensurethatmoreandnotfeweragriculturalprod-
ucts,includingcaleandresourcesforfeedinglivestock,aretransportedfromlongdis-
tancesandatlowprices[102].Ifthepricesofproductsfromsmallregionalfarmersremain
manytimesmoreexpensivethanindustrial,tax-privilegedproductsfromthirdcountries,
howisachangeinmindsetofprice-sensitiveconsumerssupposedtotakeplace?Whatis
theanswerofpoliticianstotheirowncounter-productivepoliciestosuchurgentquestions
asrevolutionisingourglobalfoodsystem?
Beforeconcludingthediscussion,wewouldliketoaddresstwoissuesthataresome-
whatdisconnectedfromthemainfocusofthisstudyyetareimportant:theadaptationof
theplanetaryhealthdiettolocalconditionsandtheimpactofpetsontheenvironment.
4.2.AdaptingthePlanetaryHealthDiettoLocalCuisineandCulture
Wewereabletoindicatehowlandconsumptionwoulddecreaseifeveryone’scon-
sumptionfollowedtheplanetaryhealthdietrecommendations,atleastforacertainrange
offoodgroups.Weareawarethatweexcludedawiderangeoffoodstuff,suchasfruits,
nutsandfish;beverages,suchascoffee,tea,juice,wine,beer,etc.;processedfoodand
sweets,suchasice-cream,chocolateandcookies;snackfood,suchascrisps,etc.;andto-
baccoandotherluxuryfoods.Theimplicationoftheseexclusionsistwo-fold:firstly,the
resourceconsumptionnecessaryforourentiredietaloneismuchlargerthanthatshown
inthisstudy;secondly,ifitisthatmuchlarger,shouldeachofusnottrytokeepthefoot-
printofstaplefoodassmallaspossible,sothatoccasionally,wecanenjoyotherfoodstuffs
withoutconstantlystretchingplanetaryboundaries?Theplanetaryhealthdietcangiveus
gooddirection,asitindicatesahealthydietthatiswithinourplanetaryboundaries.None-
theless,itseemsimportantthatweadjustittoourlocalcuisineandculture,andcooking
timeandcapabilities,especiallyifbreakingconsumptionpaernsisthegoal—aproject
thatwillmeetmuchresistancefromthepopulation,aspeopledonotliketofeelpatron-
ised.

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InthecaseofthestateofHesse—orrathercentralEuropeassuch—themediumpo-
tatoconsumptionindicatedbythePHDistoolow.Instead,weproposetomaintainthe
currentconsumptionlevels,asinthisregion,potatoesareusuallyeatenwholeandonly
toalesserextentintheformofstarch(thereasonwhythePHDdoesnotrecommend
greaterpotatoconsumption).Tomaintaintherecommendedcalorieintake,theconsump-
tionofcereals,forexample,couldbereducedaccordingly.Therecommendedconsump-
tionofpoultryat3.6animalspercapitaperyearisquitehigh.Thisnumberofpoultrycan
onlybeproducedthroughfactoryfarming,aformofhusbandrythat,ascriticsargue(and
wecouldnotagreemore),cannotdojusticetoanimalwelfare.Itmightthereforemake
moresensetousethislandtogrowspecialcropssuchashemp,flax,buckwheat,quinoa,
chickpeas,etc.,insteadoffeedingthemtopoultry,toprovideamorevariedplant-based
dietatthelocallevel.Thesamealsoappliestofish,althoughitisnotpartofthisstudy
duetotheinsignificantamountoflocallyproducedfish:istheannualintakeofalmost9
kgoffishpercapitanecessary,orcouldwenotratherconsumesimilarhealthyfood,such
aslocalplants,butalsoalgaeandequivalents?Examplesofbalanced,variedvegandiets
provethatsufficientconsumptionofproteinsderivingfromplantsispossible[103].
InmostpartsofthestateofHesse,thecurrentproductionoffruitsandespecially
nutsisirrelevant,besidesperhapscherries,strawberriesandapples,wherethelaerare
employedtoproducebeverages.Byresearchinglocalgardens,however,wecanfindthat
tonnesoffruitsareproducedwhichoftenrotontreesandbushes.Thispracticecouldbe
reconsideredbymakingtheadvantagesoflocalfruitvarietiesinseasonorpreservedfruit
sociallyaractiveagain.ThePHDalsorecommendsahighintakeofnuts(15.7kgper
capitaperyear).Mostnuts—suchasalmonds,cashews,Brazilnutsandpeanuts—arenot
nativetoGermany,andtheircultivationrequiresalargeamountofwater.Insteadofcam-
paigningtoeatmorenuts,thefocuscouldbeonlocalnuts,suchashazelnutsandwalnuts,
butespeciallyontheconsumptionoflocalseeds,suchashempseeds,linseed,pumpkin
seedsandsunflowerseeds.
4.3.ThePlanetaryHealthDietandPets
Anotherimportantaspect,whichshouldnotbeneglectedandwhichcouldhinder
theachievementofthesustainabilitygoalsinthefoodsector—arepets(catsanddogs).In
Germany,thereare16.7millionpetcatsand10.3millionpetdogs,andtheshareforthe
populationofHesseisabout770,000dogsand1.25millioncats.Forcats(meanweightof
3–5kg),thismeansroughly55,000tonnesofmeatperyear,andfordogs,basedonthe
weightofthetenmostpopulardogbreedsandthemeanvalueofdifferentfeedingprac-
tices(besidesso-calledrawfeeding),about13,000tonnesofmeat,3100tonnesofvegeta-
blesand3100tonnesofcerealsoffeedingaredemanded.Convertedintolandusedtofeed
theanimalsbeingfedtopets,andconsideringcale,poultryandsheep(includingthe
herdfactors/stableplacesreportedinTableA6),anaveragedogneedsnearly2000m2of
croplandand2000m2ofpasturelandperyear.Catsneedmoremeatanduseabout6000
m2ofcroplandandabout7000m2ofpastureland,whichis,assuch,amultipleoftheland
consumptionofhumanbeings(especiallyadoptingthePHD).Todate,thesenumberscan
berelativised,becausemostofthemeatconsumedbypetsisslaughterwaste(including
bones)oranimals,not(orless)eatenbyhumans,suchasbrothercocksorretireddairy
cows.Thus,theamountofadditionallyraisedlivestockforpetsiscurrentlymuchsmaller.
Whatwouldhappen,however,ifallhumansateasthePHDrecommends?Then,farfewer
animalswouldhavetobeslaughtered,and,consequently,lessslaughterwastewouldbe
produced.Howcouldthenumberofpetsthenbefed?Provocativelyspeaking,shouldwe
not,asasociety,outgrowtheideaofkeepinganimalsforourpleasure,whenmillionsof
peoplegohungryandweneedthreeworldstosustainourcurrentconsumptionpaerns?


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5.Conclusions
Organicfarmingpractices,advocatesofthestatusquoargue,isnotanoption,be-
causeyieldsaretoolow.WhenRussiainvadedUkraine,therewasahugediscussionthat
thepricesofgrainandsunfloweroilwouldskyrocket[104],while,simultaneously,what
isseenonGermanfieldsiswheatandrapeseed.Cateringbusinessesclaimthatlocalpro-
duceisnotavailable,sotheyhavetobuyitoninternationalmarkets.
Wewerecuriousaboutwhetherthesediscussionsandclaimswerereallytrue.We
startedlookingatstatisticsbutcouldnotmakeanysenseofthem.Whatdotheindicated
hectaresmeanforthelocalself-sufficiencylevels?Whatarethedifferencesbetweenthe
NorthandtheSouthofthestateofHesse?Giventhisinitialpremise,weperformedour
calculations.First,wecalculateddifferentself-sufficiencydegreesforanimalproducts
(meat,eggs,dairy)andplants(cereals,legumes,vegetables,oil,sugar,potatoes)andwere
provenright:self-sufficiencylevelsarewaytoolowforcurrentconsumptionbehaviour.
Then,wecalculatedthenumberoflivestocknecessarytoreachaself-sufficiencylevelof
100%foranimalproducts,andcomparedthelandconsumedforfeedingthislivestock
(SSD100%)withthelandusedtofeedthecurrentlivestock.Inbothscenarios,theland
necessaryforfeedingexceededtheavailablecroplandandpastureland.Thus,weadapted
thismethodtothescenariowhereeveryoneateastheplanetaryhealthdietrecommends
andcouldsubstantiallydecreasethenumberoflivestock.Theresultsshowthatalthough
landtofeedanimals(PHDlivestock)andfordirecthumanconsumptionisavailable,we
couldobservethatfarmers’practicesareneithersustainablenorabletofeedusproperly.
Basedontheseresults,wedevelopedtheutopian-basedmodel(aseven-yearcroprotation
andextensivehusbandry)justtoseewhatcouldbepossibleifeverybodyacteddifferently.
Withourcalculationresults,wewereabletodemonstratethepotentialforpositive
change:mathematically,inthisscenario,mostoftheregionsareabletofeedthemselvesa
balancedplant-baseddietandkeepthenecessarynumberoflivestockinanextensiveand
sustainableway.However,morelivestockisneededbecauseoftheconsequentlylower
productionrates.
Thoughnotinscopeofthisstudy,thequestionremainsabouthowthingscould
change.Thisquestionisoneofthemostimportantofourtime.To‘extinguishtheburning
house’,torephraseGretaThunberg’swords,webelievethatweneedanarmyoftoolsfor
thischallenge.Asstatedabove,foodproductionaccountsforaboutone-thirdoftotal
greenhouse-gasemissions,soactinginthissectoriskey.Ourcontributiontothismassive
projectisourmodel,whichcanbeeasilyadaptedtouser-friendlytools,suchasanapp
thatshowsone’spersonallandconsumptionbasedonconsumptionbehaviour,including
smileyfacesandfrowningfaces(aswehaveindicatedabovethatpeoplelovethem).Our
figuresanddatacanbeusedforcampaignsandround-tablediscussions;policymakers
canusethemtoconvincetheiropponentstostartchangingourfoodsystems.Eventhough
thechallengesareimmenseandmayappearimpossibletoovercome,itiscrucialthatwe
persistinourefforts.
SupplementaryMaterials:Thefollowingsupportinginformationcanbedownloadedat:
hps://www.mdpi.com/article/10.3390/su15118675/s1,informofanExcelfileandincludeTableS1:
Feedingexamples;Table S2:Livestockfeed;TableS3:Crops;Table S4:Calc.baseenergyplants;Table 
S5:Livestock;Tab leS6:SSDplants;TableS7:Clovergrass%Hesse;Tabl eS8:SSDanimalproducts;
TableS9:SSD100%Livestfeed;Table S10:PHDLivestockfeed;TableS11:PHDextensiveLivest
feed;TableS12:Overviewconsump,production;TableS13:PHDinclcroprotation.References[105–
109]arementionedinSupplementaryMaterialsFile.
Aut hor Contributions:Conceptualization,A.-M.S.andM.B.;methodology,A.-M.S.;validation,A.-
M.S.andM.B.;formalanalysis,A.-M.S.;investigation,A.-M.S.andM.B.;resources,A.-M.S.and
M.B.;datacuration,A.-M.S.andM.B.;writing—originaldraftpreparation,A.-M.S.;writing—review
andediting,A.-M.S.andM.B.;visualization,M.B.;supervision,A.-M.S.;projectadministration,A.-
M.S.andM.B.;fundingacquisition,A.-M.S.andM.B.Allauthorshavereadandagreedtothepub-
lishedversionofthemanuscript.

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Funding:ThisresearchwaspartlyfundedbyInnovationsinthefieldoflogisticsandmobilitymeas-
ureoftheHessianMinistryofEconomics,Energy,TransportandHousing,grantnumber1268/21-
169.
InstitutionalReviewBoardStatement:Notapplicable.
InformedConsentStatement:Notapplicable.
DataAvailabilityStatement:Publiclyavailabledatasetswereanalysedinthisstudy.Thisdatacan
befoundhere:hps://statistik.hessen.de/unsere-zahlen/land-und-forstwirtschaft(accessedon12
September2022)andhere:hps://de.statista.com(accessedon14December2022).
Acknowledgments:WewouldliketothankChristophFeistforsharinghisknowledgeonagricul-
turalpractices.WewouldalsoliketothankKenanA.J.BozhüyükandSusannevonMünchhausen
forreading,commentingonanddiscussingourwork.
ConflictsofInterest:Theauthorsdeclarenoconflictofinterest.
AppendixA
Tab l eA1.AvailableCropLandperRegions1to6inhaandYieldsperRegionandCropindeci-
tonnesperhectare.Note:Onedecitonne(dt)isequivalentto100kgoronequintal.Eachregion(1–
6)isdividedintothetotalhectaresofeacharablecropandthecorrespondingorganicsharesin
hectaresandpercent.Tabl ereprinted/adaptedwithpermissionfromRef.[54].Copyrightyear:2023,
copyrightowner:HessischesStatistischesLandesamt.
AvailableCropLandinHectare,Regions1to6(I)
     thereof
RegionOperating
Farms
Crop
Land
Total
Cereals
Total
Wheat,
Spelt,
Einkorn
RyeTriticaleBarleyOat
Corn
maize/C
orn-Cob-
Mix
Other
Cereals
1Hesse
intotal15,128464,437289,347143,60615,05919,34287,266927713,4701327
thereoforganic210822,29693182383310136552496787556
in%14%8%6%16%16%4%27%6%42%
2GDDa
intotal4935145,71488,51148,4424670244023,05724586963481
thereoforganic48645061925467372712534389108
in%10%5%4%10%15%3%22%6%22%
3GDGi
intotal3832113,21672,64033,4003658565723,31830393198370
thereoforganic7438677352396212921,4021,060235202
in%19%12%11%26%23%6%35%7%55%
4GDKa
intotal6361204,239128,19761,764673111,24440,89237803310476
thereoforganic8799113387095414371541902163247
in%14%7%6%14%13%4%24%5%52%
5FMPA
intotal3207112,82569,09738,5283991182516,78716145967385
thereoforganic3233691157839228248037833065
in%10%5%4%10%15%3%23%6%17%
6M-B
intotal 110629,66419,7658189141717915777889161983
thereoforganic197262591837044947127710335
in%18%13%11%26%25%8%31%6%42%
  AvailableCropLandinHectare,Regions1to6(II)
RegionSilage
Maize
Sugar
BeetsPotatoes
Winter
Oilseed
Rape
PulsesVege-
tables
Grass-
land
Per-
manent
Crops
Clover
Grass/Lu
cerne

1Hesse
intotal43,89716,504442143,20413,4107494294,2885855501
thereoforganic14253184951794666    
in%3%2%11%0%35%    
2GDDa
intotal11,6898,845319211,4063303658283,5744888133
thereoforganic18815718752881    
in%2%2%6%0%27%    

Sustainability2023,15,867527of38

3GDGi
intotal10,198148648711,465373715092,089202116
thereoforganic55052103711595    
in%5%3%21%1%43%    
4GDKa
intotal22,010617374220,3336371763118,627726251
thereoforganic688109205572190    
in%3%2%28%0%34%    
5FMPA
intotal91557361101477732463456954,7631400104
thereoforganic115691270762    
in%1%1%13%0%31%    
6M-B
intotal24903137722009413519,31121339
thereoforganic15222538    
in%6%0%29%0%57%    
Tab l eA2.YieldsperCropindt/habasedon[66].
FieldCropYielddt/haHesse
(Year:2021)
Cerealstotalincl.cornmaizeandcorn-cob-mix67.9
Cerealstotalexcludingcornmaizeandcorn-cob-mix66.7
Wheat(meanvaluewinterandsummerwheat)65.95
Rye56.3
Barley(meanvaluewinterandsummerbarley)64.5
Oilseedrape(winter)35.5
Potatoes420.6
Sugarbeets847.3
Cornmaize93.3
Silagemaize547.9
Forage(permanentgrassland)60
Forage(cultivationonarableland)61.8
Clovergrass/alfalfa(drymass)60.3
Fieldbeans37.9
Fieldpeas35.4
Sweetlupines33.5
Soybeans34
Sunflowerseeds26.1
Tab l eA3.YieldsindtperRegionandCropbasedon[54,66].Tab leadaptedwithpermissionfrom
Ref.[54].Copyrightyear:2023,copyrightowner:HessischesStatistischesLandesamt.
YieldsperRegionandCropindtperHectare(I)
  thereof      
Region Cereals
Total
Wheat,
Spelt,
Einkorn
RyeTriticaleBarleyOat
Corn
Maize/Corn-
Cob-Mix
Other
Cereals
1Hesse19,100,7679,274,372847,8221,275,6055,628,657447,2671,256,75133,175
2GDDa5,836,6653,128,484262,921160,9181,487,177118,506649,64812,025
3GDGi4,798,8792,157,041205,945373,0791,504,011146,518298,3739250
4GDKa8,465,2903,988,847378,955741,5422,637,534182,243308,82311,900
5FMPA4,555,4672,488,218224,693120,3591,082,76277,815556,7219625
6M-B1,306,996528,86379,777118,116372,61742,861151,0532075
YieldsperRegionandCropindtperHectare(II)

Sustainability2023,15,867528of38

Region Silage
maize
Sugar
beetsPotatoes
Winter
oilseed
rape
PulsesVegetables
 
1Hesse21,884,16813,726,9241,852,6731,422,695350,5162,148,383 
2GDDa5,827,3707,356,6801,337,646375,59686,3351,886,931 
3GDGi5,084,0551,235,955204,083377,53997,67943,002 
4GDKa10,972,7445,134,289310,944669,560166,528218,737 
5FMPA4,564,0836,122,388424,929255,96364,3791,309,843 
6M-B1,241,351260,33232,26872,44524,59610,034 
Tab l eA4.ExtrapolatedConsumptionperRegions1to6inkgaccordingtoCurrentDietandPlane-
taryHealthDiet.
CurrentConsumptionandRecommendedConsumptionperRegioninkg
FoodGroup
(inkg)
Current
Consumption
Region1
Consump-
tionRec-
om-
mended
byPHD
Region1
Current
Consump
tion
Region2
Consump-
tionRec-
om-
mended
byPHD
Region2
Current
Consumpt
ionRegion
3
Con-
sump-
tionRec-
om-
mended
byPHD
Region3
Current
Consump
tion
Region4
Con-
sump-
tionRec-
om-
mended
byPHD
Region4
Current
Consumpt
ionRegion
5
Con-
sump-
tionRec-
om-
mended
byPHD
Region5
Current
Consum
ption
Region6
Con-
sump-
tionRec-
om-
mended
byPHD
Region6
Cereals523,745,414458,433,35
4
335,010,12
5
293,233,71
887,423,64876,521,75
1
101,311,64
2
88,677,88
5245,660,896215,026,5
10
20,681,60
6
18,102,57
0
Pulses15,737,543148,200,43
810,066,41094,795,3832,626,91324,737,63
53,044,22028,667,42
07,381,63869,512,88
0621,4435,852,124
Potatoes375,183,01398,800,292239,983,21
463,196,92262,625,59416,491,75
772,574,20519,111,61
3175,978,23846,341,92
0
14,815,18
93,901,416
Vegetables688,674,860592,801,75
1
440,506,10
2
379,181,53
2114,953,69198,950,54
0
133,215,06
7
114,669,6
79323,020,457278,051,5
21
27,194,32
4
23,408,49
6
Fruits453,870,726395,201,16
7
290,315,26
4
252,787,68
875,760,15765,967,02
787,795,30576,446,45
3212,886,426185,367,6
81
17,922,40
2
15,605,66
4
Plant-Oil148,562,401102,357,10
295,026,91065,472,01124,798,05417,085,46
028,737,43719,799,63
169,682,65848,010,22
95,866,4174,041,867
Nuts31,475,08598,800,29220,132,82063,196,9225,253,82516,491,75
76,088,44019,111,61
314,763,27546,341,92
01,242,8853,901,416
Sugar204,588,05361,256,181130,863,33
039,182,09234,149,86310,224,88
939,574,86011,849,20
095,961,28828,731,99
18,078,7532,418,878
Milk,equiv.diary2,553,258,895494,001,45
9
1,633,174,3
58
315,984,61
0426,190,28482,458,78
3
493,894,25
3
95,558,06
6
1,197,596,8
68
231,709,6
01
100,822,8
31
19,507,08
0
Eggs(pcs.)1,498,214,046407,747,23
6
958,322,23
2
260,812,69
4250,082,07068,061,21
8
289,809,74
4
78,873,32
4702,731,890191,252,3
69
59,161,32
6
16,101,08
2
Redmeattotal264,390,71427,664,082169,115,68
817,695,13844,132,1304,617,69251,142,8965,351,252124,011,51012,975,73
8
10,440,23
41,092,396
Whitemeat82,464,72357,304,16952,747,98836,654,21513,765,0229,565,21915,951,71311,084,73
638,679,78126,878,31
43,256,3592,262,821
Fish79,946,71655,219,88951,137,36335,321,01913,344,7169,217,31115,464,63810,681,55
937,498,71925,900,69
03,156,9282,180,517
Beef514,302,889328,970,27
9
85,847,50199,485,110241,231,91420,308,74
1

Sheepandgoat59,173,16037,849,7029,877,19111,446,26727,754,9572,336,624
Pig3,777,0102,415,938630,459730,6131,771,593149,146
Othermeat195,145,527124,823,48
4
32,573,71537,748,32891,532,3057,705,887
Meattotal(red
andwhite+in-
dustry)
6,295,0174,026,5641,050,7651,217,6882,952,655248,577


Sustainability2023,15,867529of38

Tab l eA5.ExtrapolatedConsumptionperRegions1to6inhaaccordingtoCurrentDietandPlane-
taryHealthDiet.
NecessaryhaofCropsforDirectHumanConsumptionforSelf-SufficiencyDegreeof100%(Baseline:Current
Consumption)
Region
CerealsTotal
(Wheat,Spelt,
Einkorn,Rye,
Barley,Oat,
OtherCere-
als)
Sugarfrom
SugarBeets
20%Sugarper
Beet
Potatoes
Oilfrom
Oilseed
Rape
2.3kgper1l
Oil
Legumes
(95%inHesse
forLivestock)
VegetablesSum
1-Hesse78,52312,073892096,252673324,022226,522
2-GDDa50,2267722570661,567430615,366144,893
3-GDGi13,1072015148916,0661124401037,811
4-GDKa15,1892335172518,6191302464743,818
5-FMPA36,8315663418445,147315811,268106,250
6-M-B310147735238012669498945
NecessaryhaofCropsforDirectHumanConsumptionforSelf-SufficiencyDegreeof100%(baseline:Planetary
HealthDiet)
1-Hesse68,7313615234966,31663,40120,678225,090
2-GDDa43,9632312150342,41840,55413,227143,977
3-GDGi11,47360339211,06910,583345237,572
4-GDKa13,29569945412,82812,264400043,541
5-FMPA32,2381696110231,10529,7389699105,578
6-M-B271414393261925048178,888
Tab l eA6.HerdFactors/StablePlaces,SlaughterWeightandOutputofConventionalandExtensive
Husbandry.Table adaptedandbasedon[67–76].
LivestockHerd
Factors
HerdFactors
(Extensive
Husbandry)
HerdShareProducing
“Output”/StablePlace
(SlaughterQuota)
Output
kgmilk/ani-
mal;
eggs/animal
Output
Slaughter
Weight/
Animalin
kg1)
Output(Extensive
Husbandry)
Dairycow1.330.679358.45150kg/milkp.a.
Cattle2.730.37230
Sheep  0.521.4
Goats  0.510.8
Fattening
pigs
  2981.5
Layinghen   288180eggs/henp.a.
Broiler
chicken
  102
Geese  4.15.2
Turkeys  2.910
Ducks  4.32.2
AdditionalInformationonA6:HerdFactor/StablePlaceFactor:
Dairycows:
Theherdfactorofdairycowsis1.33(dairycowherdplus33%offspring),sincethe
offspringgivebirthtotheirfirstcalfatabout2–2.5yearsofage,thusproducingmilk,and
adairycowisslaughteredafterapprox.6years.Beforethen,thecowhastoliveinthe
herdwithoutproducingmilk.Thus,theshareoftheherdproducingmilkis67%.

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Weconsideredthecurrentdairycows,added1/3ofoffspringandcalculatedthat67%
ofthisherdproduces9,358.4kgcurrentlyor5,150kgmilk/cowp.a.withextensivehus-
bandry[72].
Cale:
TakingintoaccountHessianstatisticsfromAgriculturalholdingswithcalehusbandry
andcalepopulationon1March2020byregionalunit,StatisticsHesse[69]and,calculating
thedecreaseinanimalsineachagegroup,wecalculatedaslaughterquotaof0.37.The
averageslaughterweightofcalves,youngcaleandcaleis230kg/animal.Toslaughter
37%ofaherd,eachslaughteredanimalhastobemultipliedby2.7(1/0.37)tokeepthe
herdsizestable.Ifcalewerekeptextensively,themultiplyingfactorwouldhavetobe3
(oneanimallivesforthreeyearstoachieveanadequateslaughterquota).Tocalculatethe
producedcalemeatinkgbasedonthecurrentlivestockplustheretireddairycows,we
tookthecurrentlivestockminusthedairycows,multipliedthembytheslaughterquota
(0.37)andslaughterweight(230kg),and17%ofthedairycowsandaslaughterweightof
250kg.
Sheepandgoats:
Thesedifferencesarelesssignificantforsheepandgoatsasmostfarmsinthestateof
Hessekeepsheeponpastureandgrasssilageformeatproduction.Thenumberofgoats
wasincluded,andthereareafewdairygoatfarms,butthenumberisratherinsignificant,
accountingforonly2%oftheavailablegrazinganimals.
Calculatingthenumberofgoats,sheepandotheranimalsiseasierthanforcaleas
theyareslaughteredafewweeks/monthsafterbeingborn.Wedidnotconsiderdifferent
livestockforextensivehusbandryasmostgoatsandsheeparekeptextensively.Inaddi-
tion,thenumberofanimalsnecessarytosatisfythedemandisnothigh,andasamuch
lowernumberofcaleisnecessary,grazinglandwouldbeavailable.Nobroilerchickens
wouldbenecessary,asthedemandcouldbecoveredbydual-purposehensandtheir
brothers.Weincludedaslaughterquotaof0.5forsheepandgoats,andslaughterweight
of21.4kgforsheepand10.8kgforgoats.
Faeningpigs:
Theincludedslaughterweightoffaeningpigsis98kg.Theslaughterquotais2,as
eachpiglivesformax.6months;thus,perstableplace,twopigscanbefaenedperyear.
Inthecaseofextensivehusbandry,weassumedpigstobeslaughteredafter8months;
thus,theslaughterquotawouldchangeto1.5.
Breedingsowsandequines:
Thecurrentnumberofbreedingsowsperregionwasincludedbutwasnotchanged
intheotherscenarios(SSD100%,PHD,extensive).
Layinghensandpullets:
Thecurrentlayingperformanceis,onaverage,288eggs/henp.a.,andfordual-use
chickens,180eggs/henp.a.[73].Pulletswereincludedinthecurrentlivestock.
Broilerchickens:
Tocalculatethecurrentlyproducedchickenmeatinkg,weusedthecurrentlivestock
multipliedby2kgslaughterweight(i.e.,theaverageoflight,medium,andheavyfaen-
ingaccordingto[71])and10(as,onaverage,broilerchickensarereplacedafter37days).
Forextensivehusbandry,chickensareslaughteredafter81days(slaughterquota:4.5).
Otherpoultry:
Geese,turkeysandducksaccountfora12%consumptionshareintheregion.The
slaughterquotaofgeeseisestimatedtobe6.1(slaughteredafter90days),withaslaughter
weightof5.2kg;thatofturkeysis3.3(slaughteredafter126days),withaslaughterweight
of10kg;andthatofducksis2.6(slaughteredafter84days),withaslaughterweightof2.2
kg.
Alllivestock
Allcalculationsofthenecessarylivestock(SSD100%,PHDandextensive)wereper-
formedbydividingtheproductionnecessaryforSSD100%inkgbytheoutputandmul-
tiplyingbytheherdfactors(TableA6).

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Tab l eA7.CalculatedSharesofPlantsUsedforEnergyProduction.Becausethisshareofarableland
isnotusedtoproducefoodorfodder,itwasexcludedfromcalculationsfromtheoutset.Tablebased
on[66,82,83].
PercentagesofCropsforEnergyPurposesandIndustry(Excl.StarchProduction)
CerealsTotalWheat,Spelt,
EinkornSilageMaizeSugarBeetsPotatoesWinter
OilseedRapePulses
  2.10%9.00%1.84%0.40%7.20%1.00%
HectaresUsedperRegion(1to6)forCropsforEnergyPurposesandIndustry(excl.StarchProduction)
RegionCerealstotalWheat,spelt,
EinkornSilagemaizeSugarbeetsPotatoesWinter
oilseedrapePulses
1Hesse600229793955303163128133
2GDDa1836100510531631282633
3GDGi150769391927283037
4GDKa2659128119831133147263
5FMPA1433799825135456324
6M-B410170224601599
AdditionalinformationonTables A7andS4:InGermany,about20%oftotal
croplandisusedforenergysourcingorindustrialpurposes,mainlybiogas(53%,two-
thirdsofwhichismaize),followedbyfuel(36%,74%ofwhichisrapeseed)andethanol
(26%;mainlywheat,rye,sugarbeetandcornmaize).About11%ofthe20%oflandisused
fortechnicalpurposes(46%),starch(45%),industrialsugar(5%)orcolouringplants(4%).
About60%ofthetotalcroplandisusedforlivestockfodder.Onlyabout20–22%ofthe
cropsproducedareforhumanconsumption.SpecificdataforHessewerenotavailable;
thus,weassumedthesameshares.Infurthercalculations,theseshareswerededucted
[66,82,83].

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
FigureA1.CurrentLivestockforMeat,DairyandEggsinComparisontoNecessaryLivestockAc-
cordingtoSSD100%,PHDandExtensiveinRegions1to6.

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Tab l eA8.HectaresAvailableforDirectHumanConsumption.Note:ThedataforCerealstotal(re-
gion1:256,535ha)istakenfromTableA1Cerealstotal(region1:289,347ha)minustriticale(region
1:19,342ha)andcornmaize/corn-cobmix(region1:13,470ha),asbothisgrownforanimalfeed.
AvailablehaforDirectHumanConsumption,Regions1to6
Region CerealsTotalSugarBeetsPotatoesRapeSeedsLegumes(5%)VegetablesSum
1-Hesse256,53516,504442143,2046717494328,829
2-GDDa79,1088845319211,4061656582109,298
3-GDGi63,785148648711,46518715077,560
4-GDKa113,643617374220,333319763141,973
5-FMPA61,305736110147773123456982,145
6-M-B16,355313772200473519,027
Tab l eA9.Self-SufficiencyDegreesofCurrentConsumptionBasedonHectaresAvailableforDirect
HumanConsumption(cf.Table A8).
Self-SufficiencyDegreeofDirectHumanConsumptionperCrop,Regions1to6(CurrentConsumption)
RegionCerealsTotalSugarBeetsPotatoesRapeSeedsLegumes(5%)VegetablesSum
1-Hesse327%137%50%45%10%31%145%
2-GDDa158%115%56%19%4%43%75%
3-GDGi487%74%33%71%17%3.7%205%
4-GDKa748%264%43%109%24%16%324%
5-FMPA166%130%24%17%4%41%77%
6-M-B527%66%22%58%18%3.7%213%
Tab l eA10.Self-SufficiencyDegreesofConsumptionRecommendedbyPlanetaryHealthDietBased
onHectaresAvailableforDirectHumanConsumption(cf.Tabl e A8).
Self-SufficiencyDegreeofDirectHumanConsumptionperCrop,Regions1to6(PHD)
RegionCerealsTotalSugarBeetsPotatoesRapeSeedsLegumes(5%)VegetablesSum
1-Hesse373%457%188%65%1.1%36%146%
2-GDDa180%383%212%27%0.4%50%76%
3-GDGi556%246%124%104%1.8%4.3%206%
4-GDKa855%883%163%159%2.6%19%326%
5-FMPA190%434%92%25%0.4%47%78%
6-M-B603%219%83%84%1.9%4.3%214%
References
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