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Does Bail Reform Increase Crime in New York State: Evidence from Interrupted Time-Series Analyses and Synthetic Control Methods
Abstract
In 2019, New York State passed bail reform legislation that limited the use of money bail and expanded pretrial release. The bail reform law took effect on January 1, 2020. We evaluated the effect of this law on crime rates in New York State. Interrupted time series analyses (ITSA) were used to examine whether the bail reform was significantly associated with a crime increase. When a significant association was detected, we examined whether this relationship was causal. The causal relationship was tested using synthetic control methods (SCM). We found that the rates of murder, larceny, and motor vehicle theft increased after the bail reform. We then employed SCM to create a comparison group to control for potential confounders like the pandemic. By comparing New York State with its synthetic control, we found the increases in the murder rate, larceny rate, and motor vehicle theft rate were not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that the effect of bail reform on crime rate increases is negligible.
... ated for bail reforms in response to high-profile cases of abuse, others argued these reforms jeopardize public safety (Baughman, 2019;Baughman et al., 2021). Media coverage of bail reforms has generally perpetuated a false narrative that bail reform increases crime (Hamilton et al., 2022) despite research identifying no relationship (Heaton, 2022;S. Wu & McDowall, 2023). Policymakers' perceptions of public opinion have major implications for expanding or repealing bail reforms. This study can help policymakers understand public support for pretrial detention and whether it varies by offense severity. ...
... more "politically feasible" to increase pretrial release mechanisms for people charged with misdemeanors than for people charged with felonies. While perceptions of rising crime sometimes threaten criminal justice reforms (Rizer, 2023), policymakers can rest assured that bail reforms targeting low-level offenses do not increase crime (Heaton, 2022;S. Wu & McDowall, 2023) and align with public opinion. With decreased public support for pretrial detention in less serious cases, bail reforms should continue distinguishing cases based on offense severity rather than proposing solutions that erroneously fail to consider crime type (Baughman, 2019). Recognizing the potential downstream effects of pretrial det ...
Despite recent reforms limiting or eliminating cash bail for less serious crimes, we know little about public support for pretrial detention. To help fill this gap, we embedded offense severity experimental manipulations within a national survey administered to 1,368 Americans. While liberals are significantly less likely than conservatives to support pretrial detention in the abstract, these ideological differences largely disappear once offense severity is considered. Support for pretrial detention is significantly lower for misdemeanors versus felonies, non-violent versus violent crimes, and less versus more serious crimes (shoplifting/drug possession vs. robbery/homicide). These offense severity effects hold for respondents across the political spectrum, revealing broad bifurcated support for pretrial detention across more serious versus less serious crimes that align with recent bail reforms targeting less serious crimes. The convergence of decreased support for pretrial detention in less serious cases among conservatives and liberals offers a unique opportunity for bi-partisan bail reform.
... However, New Yorkers were not uniform in their support for pretrial reform; in a 2019 survey, the majority (64%) of Democrat respondents believed the reform was "good for New York, " whereas the majority (55%) of Republican respondents believed the reform was "bad" (Siena College Research Institute, 2022). Media reports have repeatedly linked the New York bail reform to local crime increases (Bennett & Hamilton, 2021;Hamilton et al., 2022), despite sophisticated empirical studies identifying a non-significant relationship (Wu & McDowall, 2023). Nevertheless, this coverage ignited New Yorkers fear of crime to the extent that Democrat Kathy Hochul scaled back the bail reforms, citing the "horrific cases splashed on the front pages of newspapers" (Sterne, 2023a, p. 1). ...
... The public is more divided regarding the perceived dangerousness of pretrial detainees. While less than half of respondents believe detainees are dangerous and that releasing them would increase crime, conservatives are much more likely to hold such beliefs, despite studies concluding there is little-to-no effect rise in crime deriving from pretrial justice reforms (Heaton, 2022;Jorgensen & Smith, 2021;Wu & McDowall, 2023). The public's misunderstanding might result from misleading media coverage of bail reforms and misinformation spread by elected officials (Bennett & Hamilton, 2021;Hamilton et al., 2022). ...
... The international literature provides little to no evidence for small municipalities or rural areas. This study aims to address and fill this gap in the research (Wu and McDowall, 2023). ...
Objectives
We analyze the impact of the “Stoppa droghandeln” (“Stop the drug trade”) program, a set of safety interventions aimed at reducing crime, particularly drug-related crimes, in a small Swedish municipality (Österåker) from 2018 to 2023.
Methods
We use a count-based synthetic control approach to compare police crime data before and after beginning the safety interventions (“Stop the drug trade”). This quasi-experimental design was used to infer the causal effects of “Stop the drug trade” on crime, using an evaluation framework including several robustness tests with different crime types. Cluster detection analysis was also used to monitor potential changes in the geography of open drug markets.
Results
In 2023, Österåker performed better than 82% of all Swedish municipalities for drug-related offenses. Estimates indicate that 3221 crimes were prevented in Österåker, including 589 less drug-related offenses. However, the non-significant p-values suggest that Österåker’s crime reduction did not outperform most other municipalities. While this could be due to other municipalities implementing their own interventions, the magnitude and consistency of the treatment effects across crime types in Österåker make it unlikely that these results occurred by chance. In terms of geography, clusters of drug-related offenses were stable, and after the interventions, they became more concentrated in particular places.
Conclusions
This study’s findings underscore the potential impact of a blend of social and situational crime prevention interventions to reduce drug-related offenses and other crimes in a small municipality. The Österåker case demonstrates that strategies should target specific types of crime and monitor possible shifts in crime concentration across different parts of the study area over time. The synthetic control method helped isolate the impact of safety interventions on drug-related crime, demonstrating its value as a tool for policy evaluation.
... Another mechanism through which PCPs could increase crime is by eliminating any incapacitation effects associated with pretrial detention through the reformation or abolition of cash bail. Here, studies show that abolishing cash bail for certain types of nonviolent offenses has little to no effect on crime rates (Heaton 2022, Holsinger et al. 2023, Monaghan et al. 2022, Rahman 2019, Wu & McDowall 2023, Zhou et al. 2023. Moreover, research indicates that decarceration efforts initiated under California's realignment policies did not significantly increase crime in that state (Bartos & Kubrin 2018;Lofstrom & Raphael 2016a,b;Sundt et al. 2016). ...
Throughout much of the United States, progressive chief prosecutors (PCPs) have campaigned for office by pledging to end mass incarceration and reduce disparities therein. In this review, we summarize the progressive prosecution movement and the evidence base concerning PCPs. We attribute the rising number of PCPs to a disjuncture between the criminal justice policy preferences of state-level policymakers and voters. Although voters, especially in urban areas, prefer reforms aimed at reducing excessive punitiveness and increasing fairness, state-level policymakers have been reluctant to enact such reforms. PCPs bridge this gap by using their authority to implement local reforms without altering state laws. We detail the number of PCPs leading prosecution in urban counties, examine their characteristics, discuss the controversies surrounding PCPs, and critically review the emerging body of evidence concerning the influence of PCPs on sanctioning and public safety.
... Unlike crime, these events are unusual and one should not expect macro-level variables to exert much influence on isolated micro-level events (Keller et al., 2023;Klinger et al., 2016). Further, variable influence may differ across states and it is unknown whether there are many causal pathways to predict FOIS (Bartos et al., 2020;Wu and McDowall, 2023). Therefore, the synthetic control group analysis matches monthly FOIS incidents prior to the signing of AB 392 and does not use other control variables. ...
American police face considerable criticism from the public about the perceived unnecessary and excessive use of deadly force in civilian interactions. Police reform advocates often call for widespread change to reduce officer-involved shootings and other forms of deadly force. Some, such as California, pursued statewide legal interventions to limit police deadly force. AB 392, the California Act to Save Lives, changed the deadly force standard so that objectively reasonable officers, when considering the totality of circumstances, can only use deadly force when necessary to defend human life. The stricter standard was designed to limit officer deadly force and reduce civilian deaths so this paper considers the efficacy of AB 392 on the incidence of fatal force in California. The results of interrupted time series and synthetic control method (SCM) analyses find no evidence of a reduction in deadly force after the passage of AB 392. Any effort to change deadly force should be coupled with legislative changes and evidence-based practices. Policymakers, practitioners, and researchers will need to explore a multi-pronged approach to reduce deadly force encounters.
This decision is not a strictly "either-or" proposition. Some people facing charges are incarcerated during this pretrial stage for months or even years, while other spend only a few hours or days in jail, and some spend no time behind bars at all. This pretrial detention decision carries enormous consequences for the individual charged, and has serious downstream effects throughout the entire justice system. Accordingly, the decision whether to subject someone to incarceration awaiting further court processing is a weighty one and is often informed by a complex set of factors. Concerns about community safety, the constitutional rights of justice-involved persons, and the need for individuals to appear in court all play an important role. The key question at hand is whether pretrial detention promotes future court appearance or public safety. If it does, there may be a benefit of pretrial detention with respect to public safety. However, it is possible that pretrial detention actually makes things worse for justice-involved individuals-a finding revealed by a recent meta-analysis of over 100 studies on the effects of custodial versus community sanctions (Petrich et al., 2021). If pretrial detention actually inflicts harms, then not only does it compromise public safety, but it also forces the public to bear additional costs-not only financially but also the human costs on people and their families-of incarcerating citizens unnecessarily. The present study builds upon prior analyses that showed pretrial detention for a period longer than three days was associated with higher rates of failing to appear and re-arrest during the pretrial phase. However, this "three-day rule" was generated with data that had little precision in terms of actual time spent in pretrial detention. The new data used in the present study contain time-stamped information for more precise estimates, and more rigorous statistical analyses were applied to assess the potential "generality" of the effects. To that end, the present study uses data on 1,487,107 individuals booked into a jail in Kentucky between 2009 and 2018 to address two broad research objectives: 1) to investigate the relationship between pretrial detention and failure to appear, 2) to investigate the relationship between pretrial detention, and the length of pretrial detention, and new arrest during the pretrial phase, 3) to investigate the relationship between pretrial detention and sentencing outcomes, and 4) to determine the extent to which these findings are "general" across sociodemographic categories of people and across different time periods. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Any time a person is arrested and accused of committing a crime, a decision has to be made. Will this person be quickly released back into the community, or will this person be detained in jail to await the next stage of case processing?
Pretrial detention, the use of detention to ensure youth attend court hearings, makes up 75% of all juvenile detention admissions. Research investigating the impact of detainment on youth outcomes is limited and, when available, does not distinguish between different uses of detention. Consequently, little is known about the effects of detaining youth for this purpose. The current study examines the impact of pretrial detention on more than 46,000 juvenile cases across 32 jurisdictions. Using propensity score matching, analyses found that pretrial detention was associated with a 33% increase in felony recidivism and 11% increase in misdemeanor recidivism within one year, and a small effect for length of stay (1% increased risk per day). The analyses also revealed an interaction effect with prior criminal history indicating that this relationship shifts once a youth has a number of previous criminal filings.
We seek to measure the impact of decisions issued by the US Supreme Court on public awareness of its cases. We use a quasi-experimental design with the Court decisions as the stimulus of hypothesized public awareness change. We find that public awareness of cases varies according to individual differences: more educated, knowledgeable, and informationally motivated citizens are more likely to report awareness. Further, decision announcements increase awareness more generally, especially in cases of moderate salience. In contrast, for a very high salience case, awareness is high before and after the decision is announced, while, for a case fabricated by the investigators, “awareness” is not affected by the Court’s activities. The results suggest that while the public may eventually respond to the behavior of national institutions, this response is likely first filtered through an elite subset of the population.
Some populations are difficult to survey. This poses a problem for researchers who want to understand what issues matter to these populations and how the salience of those concerns varies over time. In this visualization article, the authors illustrate how Google Trends can be used to examine issue salience for hard-to-survey mass populations. Applying this method to immigrant concerns over deportation, the authors show that anxieties over removal increased in response to (potential) policy changes, such as Arizona’s Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act (Senate Bill 1070) and the immigration policies that were considered in the wake of Donald Trump’s election.
An important problem in econometrics and marketing is to infer the causal
impact that a designed market intervention has exerted on an outcome metric
over time. This paper proposes to infer causal impact on the basis of a
diffusion-regression state-space model that predicts the counterfactual market
response in a synthetic control that would have occurred had no intervention
taken place. In contrast to classical difference-in-differences schemes,
state-space models make it possible to (i) infer the temporal evolution of
attributable impact, (ii) incorporate empirical priors on the parameters in a
fully Bayesian treatment, and (iii) flexibly accommodate multiple sources of
variation, including local trends, seasonality and the time-varying influence
of contemporaneous covariates. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for
posterior inference, we illustrate the statistical properties of our approach
on simulated data. We then demonstrate its practical utility by estimating the
causal effect of an online advertising campaign on search-related site visits.
We discuss the strengths and limitations of state-space models in enabling
causal attribution in those settings where a randomised experiment is
unavailable. The CausalImpact R package provides an implementation of our
approach.
Recent arguments in research on individual-level deterrence suggest that the effect of perceived sanction risk on illegal behavior might occur over a shorter time period than the yearly lags typically incorporated in panel studies. This study raises the same issue for macro-level deterrence research by suggesting that panel studies using yearly data might have failed to capture the deterrent effect. The analysis uses ARIMA models with data aggregated monthly, quarterly, and semiannually to estimate the reciprocal effects between arrests and crimes for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft in Oklahoma City from 1967 through 1989. No effect of crimes on arrests is found, but significant effects of arrests on crimes appear for three of the four offenses in the shorter temporal aggregations. The results suggest a need to reconsider conclusions based on panel studies that have used time aggregations and time lags that might be too long to uncover deterrent effects.
Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that following Proposition 99 tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per-capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affect a small number of aggregate units, the potential applicability of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies is very large, especially in situations where traditional regression methods are not appropriate. The methods proposed in this article produce informative inference regardless of the number of available comparison units, the number of available time periods, and whether the data are individual (micro) or aggregate (macro). Software to compute the estimators proposed in this article is available at the authors' web-pages.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
Interrupted Time Series Analysis develops a comprehensive set of models and methods for drawing causal inferences from time series. Example analyses of social, behavioural, and biomedical time series illustrate a general strategy for building A uto R egressive Integrated M oving A verage ( ARIMA ) impact models. The classic Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building strategy is supplemented with recent auxiliary tests for transformation, differencing and model selection. New developments, including Bayesian hypothesis testing and synthetic control group designs are described and their prospects for widespread adoption are discussed. Example analyses make optimal use of graphical illustrations. Mathematical methods used in the example analyses are explicated assuming only exposure to an introductory statistics course. Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments (DATSE) and other appropriate authorities are cited for formal proofs. Forty completed example analyses are used to demonstrate the implications of model properties. The example analyses are suitable for use as problem sets for classrooms, workshops, and short-courses.
The bulk of the desistance literature has focused on social/contextual factors (marriage, employment, peers) and their criminogenic consequences. Less attention has been devoted to the role of criminal justice system involvement in the desistance process, and most of the existing research indicates that system involvement tends to inhibit or delay desistance from crime. One recent effort to combat that pattern was implemented with the Responsive Interventions for Change (RIC) Docket in Harris County, Texas, in 2016. The RIC Docket was intended to increase defendants’ access to a pretrial release bond and to reduce rates of felony convictions, thus lowering the risk of disrupting important prosocial ties and avoiding potentially stigmatizing labels. In the present study, we use case processing data on rates of pretrial release and felony convictions from one year prior to (N = 6,792) and three years following (N = 12,152) the implementation of the RIC Docket. Results show that those processed through the RIC Docket were 24% more likely to have access to pretrial release and 45% less likely to have their cases result in a conviction. We conclude by discussing the importance of policy changes intended to reduce barriers to the successful desistance process for individuals involved in the justice system.
Gun Buyback programs have been implemented in various forms in countries such as the UK, USA, Brazil, Australia, and Argentina. Whether or not these programs are an effective approach for reducing national violent crime and homicides, however, remains unclear. Much of the uncertainty is due to the different ways in which Gun Buyback programs have been implemented. The Australian Gun Buyback program is distinguished from Gun Buyback programs in other countries by its abrupt implementation, its narrow focus on a particular class of firearms, and its broad application across the entire population. We assess the impact of Australia’s 1996 Gun Buyback program on national homicide rates using a synthetic control group quasi-experimental design, comparing the results to suicide and motor vehicle fatality trends to test for plausible alternative hypotheses. Results suggest that the Gun Buyback program significantly reduced Australia’s homicide rate in the decade following the intervention (1997–2007).
Judicial behavior is contingent on case salience. Unfortunately, existing measures of case salience have met with some skepticism. After discussing the characteristics of an ideal measure of salience, the authors construct a new measure of case salience. This new measure expands on prior studies by examining coverage in four diverse newspapers and includes coverage anywhere in the paper, instead of concentrating on front-page coverage only. By developing this new measure, the authors uncover patterns about national media coverage of the Court and provide a potentially more useful measure of case salience.
Over 20 percent of prison and jail inmates in the United States are currently awaiting trial, but little is known about the impact of pretrial detention on defendants. This paper uses the detention tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to estimate the causal effects of pretrial detention on subsequent defendant outcomes. Using data from administrative court and tax records, we find that pretrial detention significantly increases the probability of conviction, primarily through an increase in guilty pleas. Pretrial detention has no net effect on future crime, but decreases formal sector employment and the receipt of employment- and tax-related government benefits. These results are consistent with (i) pretrial detention weakening defendants’ bargaining positions during plea negotiations and (ii) a criminal conviction lowering defendants’ prospects in the formal labor market.
Few decisions in the criminal justice process are as consequential as the determination of bail. Indeed, recent empirical research finds that pre-trial detention imposes substantial long-term costs on defendants and society. Defendants who are detained before trial are more likely to plead guilty, less likely to be employed, and less likely to access social safety net programs for several years after arrest. Spurred in part by these concerns, critics of the bail system have urged numerous jurisdictions to adopt bail reforms, which have led to growing momentum for a large-scale transformation of the bail system. Yet supporters of the current system counter that pre-trial detention reduces flight and pre-trial crime-recognized benefits to society-by incapacitating defendants. Despite empirical evidence in support of both positions, however, advocates and critics of the current bail system have generally ignored the real trade-offs associated with detention. This Article provides a broad conceptual framework for how policymakers can design a better bail system by weighing both the costs and benefits of pre-trial detention-trade-offs that are historically grounded in law, but often disregarded in practice. I begin by presenting a simple taxonomy of the major categories of costs and benefits that stem from pre-trial detention. Building from this taxonomy, I conduct a partial cost-benefit analysis that incorporates the existing evidence, finding that the current state of pre-trial detention is generating large social losses. Next, I formally present a framework that accounts for heterogeneity in both costs and benefits across defendants, illustrating that detention on the basis of “risk” alone can lead to socially suboptimal outcomes. In the next part of the Article, I present new empirical evidence showing that a costbenefit framework has the potential to improve accuracy and equity in bail decision-making, where currently bail judges are left to their own heuristics and biases. Using data on criminal defendants and bail judges in two urban jurisdictions, and exploiting variation from the random assignment of cases to judges, I find significant judge differences in pre-trial release rates, the assignment of money bail, and racial gaps in release rates. While there are any number of reasons why judges within the same jurisdiction may vary in their bail decisions, these results indicate that judges may not be all setting bail at the socially optimal level. The conceptual framework developed in this Article also sheds light on the ability of recent bail reforms to increase social welfare. While the empirical evidence is scant, electronic monitoring holds promise as a welfare-enhancing alternative to pre-trial detention. In contrast, application of the conceptual framework cautions against the expanding use of risk-assessment instruments. These instruments, by recommending the detention of high-risk defendants, overlook the possibility that these high-risk defendants may also be “high-harm” such that they are most adversely affected by a stay in jail. Instead, I recommend that jurisdictions develop “net benefit” assessment instruments by predicting both risk and harm for each defendant in order to move closer toward a bail system that maximizes social welfare.
Judicial behavior is contingent on case salience. Unfortunately, existing measures of case salience have met with some skepticism. After discussing the characteristics of an ideal measure of salience, the authors construct a new measure of case salience. This new measure expands on prior studies by examining coverage in four diverse newspapers and includes coverage anywhere in the paper, instead of concentrating on front-page coverage only. By developing this new measure, the authors uncover patterns about national media coverage of the Court and provide a potentially more useful measure of case salience.
This study examines the structural determinants of robbery and homicide offending in 171 American cities with a population greater than 100,000 in 1980. A macro-level social control model is presented that focuses on the consequences for formal and informal social control of police aggressiveness, jail incarceration risk, state incarceration, and family structure. Controlling for known determinants of crime rates such as poverty, inequality, and racial composition, the general question posed is, Do variations in criminal justice sanctions and the structural arrangement of families influence criminal behavior? To disentangle possible confounding effects of city composition in terms of demographic attributes, crime rates were disaggregated by age, race, and sex of offender. At least three major conclusions emerged. First, local official sanctions appear to have significant deterrent effects on robbery offending: cities with a high risk of jail incarceration produce disproportionately low robbery rates regar...
Some of the ideas about glacier surging are considered, mainly but not entirely in the light of observations of temperate glaciers in Alaska, U.S.A., made within the last 15 years. Climate has an influence on surge recurrence interval. Climate and weather also affect surge initiation, termination and magnitude. Regional studies lead to the speculation that subglacial "till" plays a key role in surging, and it has been found under all surge-type glaciers studied so far, including Black Rapids and Variegated Glaciers, Alaska. In most of the glaciers studied, till deformation processes dominate the motion in quiescence. The linked-cavity model of surge triggering and rapid motion is not consistent with these observations, but the limited coverage of the observations does not rule it out under parts of the glaciers studied. The till observations in Alaska raise old questions about the interaction between till and the hydraulic systems of temperate glaciers. The role of stored water, which observations show to be active even in winter on Black Rapids Glacier, is noted.
This Article discusses the deterrence of crime through sanctions. It begins with a brief intellectual history of deterrence theory in the work of Cesare Beccaria and Jeremy Bentham, two Enlightenment philosophers who created the conceptual foundation for later deterrence and rational choice theory. Although a prominent intellectual current by the end of the 1700s, interest in deterrence and rational choice based theories of criminal offending was later eclipsed by more biologically and psychologically based explanations. Interest in deterrence theory and the deterrent effect of legal sanctions was not rekindled until the mid-1960s. This Article discusses the particular and important role of the Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology in publishing the works of both those who were highly critical of deterrence theory and those who wished to keep it alive, though vividly aware of the lack of any empirical support for it. This Article discusses the theoretical connections that are presumed by the deterrence process and briefly reviews some important empirical studies pertaining to each of those presumed causal connections. The empirical evidence leads to the conclusion that there is a marginal deterrent effect for legal sanctions, but this conclusion must be swallowed with a hefty dose of caution and skepticism; it is very difficult to state with any precision how strong a deterrent effect the criminal justice system provides. At the very least, there is a great asymmetry between what is expected of the legal system through deterrence and what the system delivers. There is greater confidence that non-legal factors are more effective in securing compliance than legal threats. It is argued that the empirical evidence does support the belief that criminal offenders are rational actors, in that they are responsive to the incentives and disincentives associated with their actions, but that the criminal justice system, because of its delayed imposition of punishment, is not well constructed to exploit this rationality.
Using longitudinal data calibrated in daily intervals and a vector ARMA (VARMA) study design, we investigate the causal relations among the number of crimes reported to the police, the frequency of arrest, and the number of defendants held in pretrial jail confinement. Results show a lagged negative effect of frequency of arrest on reported crime. As the number of wrests made by police increases, the number of index crimes reported to authorities decreases substantially the following day. Additionally the analysis reveals a significant positive contemporaneous relationship between criminal activity and arrest levels. No feedback effects among the three variables are noted. In sum, our findings add empirical support to the thesis that the instantaneous and lagged relationship between crime and clearances are of opposite sign. That is, criminal activity increases arrest levels instantaneously, or at least relatively so, while the negative effect of arrest levels on crime levels transpires more gradually.
This article investigates the economic effects of conflict, using the terrorist conflict in the Basque Country as a case study. We find that, after the outbreak of terrorism in the late 1960's, per capita GDP in the Basque Country declined about 10 percentage points relative to a synthetic control region without terrorism. In addition, we use the 1998-1999 truce as a natural experiment. We find that stocks of firms with a significant part of their business in the Basque Country showed a positive relative performance when truce became credible, and a negative relative performance at the end of the cease-fire.
Tracking new coronavirus cases in hot spots across the United States
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NY Republicans demand repeal of bail reform offer anecdotes-not evidence-it’s behind increased crime
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Does bail reform lead to more crime? The Appeal
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Bail reform in action: Pretrial release outcomes in New York State
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