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تحليل العلاقة بين رأس المال البشري والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة1990-2020
Abstract
لأجل التعرف على واقع العلاقة بين رأس المال البشري والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق خلال الفترة 1990-2020 حاول هذا البحث نمذجة هذه العلاقة باستخدام الطرق القياسية المتمثل بأنموذج ARDL، حيث اظهرت النتائج وجود علاقة توازنیة طویلة الأجل بینھما، كما كَشفت النتائج عن وجود علاقة طردیة معنویة بین رأس المال البشري المُعبر عنھا (بسنوات التدريس والعائد من التعليم) والنمو الاقتصادي، وبخُصوص المُحددات الأخرى للنمو الاقتصادي التي تضمنتھا ھذه الدراسة (اجمالي القوة العاملة، اجمالي تكوين رأس المال الثابت،)، فقد أخذت كُلھا الاشارات المُتوقعة لھا نظریا وكانت معنویة عند مستوى 1%.
يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أثر العوامل المؤسساتية في النمو الاقتصادي في ستة دول وهم كل من (الهند، كوريا الجنوبية، ماليزيا، سنغافورة، تايلند، واندونيسيا) للمدة 2002-2020، وبالاعتماد على معطيات Panel Data، وبيان أثر العوامل المؤسساتية المعبر عنها بالمتغيرات المستقلة كل من (الاستقرار السياسي وغياب العنف (الارهاب)، الجودة التنظيمية، الصوت والمساءلة، اجمالي تكوين رأس المال الثابت، والانفتاح التجاري) في نمو ناتج المحلي الاجمالي المعبر عن النمو الاقتصادي فقد تم استخدام نموذج (الانحدار التجميعي- الاثر الثابت- والاثر العشوائي) وضمن معطيات panel data في الدراسة للمفاضلة بين الأثر العشوائي والأثر الثابت من خلال استخدام نموذج هوسمان إذ بينت نتائجه بأن التأثير العشوائي هو الملائم في الدراسة. ومن ثم ثبت من خلال اختبار مضاعف لانكراج LM الذي ببن المفاضلة بين التأثير العشوائي والانحدار التجميعي والتي بينت نتائجه بأن نموذج الانحدار التجميعي كان له الأثر الملائم في بيان أثر العوامل المؤسساتية في النمو الاقتصادي لدول مختارة من اسيا حيث أظهرت نتائج الدراسة بأن (الاستقرار السياسي وغياب العنف (الارهاب) كان له تأثير معنوي وذات اشارة عكسية مع النمو الاقتصادي في حين إن(الصوت والمساءلة والانفتاح التجاري)كان لهم أثرهم المعنوي وذات علاقة طردية مع النمو الاقتصادي، ولم تظهر معنوية متغيرات الجودة التنظيمية، واجمالي تكوين رأس المال الثابت في النمو الاقتصادي لدول مختارة من اسيا. ويوصي البحث ضرورة تبني اصلاحات واسعة لتخلص من الارهاب والفساد وتعزيز الشفافية والمسائلة الحكومية، وتحقيق العدالة الاجتماعية وتعزيز فعاليات العمليات الادارية والقضائية والتشريعية، واحترام حقوق الملكية الفكرية.
This paper estimates the impact of human capital on economic growth in a sample of twelve Arab
countries, namely, Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Mauritania, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates, and compares the results to two samples of
Asian and advanced countries. Our calculations show that the overall cross-country and average
elasticity for the twelve Arab countries is approximately 0.5. Thus, a 1 percent increase in human
capital increases the GDP growth by about half percentage point. The average elasticity of human
capital per unit of labor variable in the Asian sample is about 0.6, which is slightly higher than the
elasticity estimated for the Arab countries. For the advanced countries, the value of the elasticity
stands higher at nearly 0.9.
Considering these results, the paper confirmed the important positive contribution of human capital
to the economic growth in the Arab countries. Compared to the benchmark of Asian countries, the
sample of Arab countries is not roughly lagging in terms of the contribution of human capital to
GDP growth. However, compared to advanced countries, a lot of efforts are needed to catch up
with the developed world as the contribution of the human capital in the Arab countries is almost
half the level observed in advanced countries.
Furthermore, results also revealed that the production function, in the three studied groups of
countries, exhibits increasing returns to scale to the three production factors: human capital,
physical capital, and labor. This leads to say that the production process in the presence of human
capital is efficient, as the increasing returns to scale means that doubling output requires less than
doubling inputs. This is an important contribution once considering human capital as an explicit
additional factor of production than the only physical capital and rough labor traditionally
considered. Nevertheless, this efficiency is higher in the advanced countries as the increasing
returns to scale is more happening in the sample of advanced countries than in the Arab and Asian
countries.
This paper also examines the two-way direction of causality between GDP and human capital,
which means that while human capital is causing the GDP, the latter also has feedback effects on
the former. This involves obviously important policy implications. The bidirectional causality
creates a loop of effects between human capital and GDP. Henceforth, increasing the contribution
of human capital to sustain long-term growth requires investments in key sectors that directly
enhance human capital. These sectors involve particularly the people’s conventional education and
vocational training, their health, and the investment in research and development for innovative
ideas and inventions, which have higher implications on their long-run productivity. Therefore, governments should give such sectors priority in their expenditures policies which is likely to
sharpen workers’ skills and enhance productivity leading to positive feedbacks on GDP.
Our findings also, suggest that governments, which are interested in enhancing human capital,
should adopt policies that boost not only the stock of human capital, but also its quality. This
would, in turn, give private investors (local and foreign as well) incentives to invest in the
production of skill-intensive and high technology goods with higher value-added compared to
labor-intensive goods. Another reason for governments to consider human capital among its top
priorities is that all the economies are shifting towards a knowledge-based economy (or the
economy of knowledge as interchangeably used in the literature). This requires empowering
human skills and their capabilities to catch up with the advanced countries and reduce the gap and
inequalities in the area of human capital, hence, help to achieve sustainable goals. Finally, Arab
countries, while investing in human capital, are also encouraged to develop human capital statistics
by adopting international methodologies used to measure the quality of human capital particularly.
ᅟ
In a prolific and illustrious career, the late Gary Becker (1930–2014) developed what he would later call "the economic approach to human behaviour". One of the most significant strands of that research was that which focused on human capital, occuping a significant part of his career, especially in his early years. In this paper we will focus on Becker’s early work in human capital up to the publication of his book in 1964, a period that laid the foundations for his career and in which he tested the possibilities of (and the resistance to) this economic approach to human behaviour. We will explore the context in which the book was developed and the interactions with other people that were laying the foundations for human capital research, namely those working at the Chicago and Columbia Departments of Economics.
JEL codes
B2; B3; I2; J3
The relevance of the researched problem is determined by transformation of the human capital into the key economic resource of development of the postindustrial society. The purpose of the article is to disclose the content of evolution of the human capital as a scientific concept and phenomenon of the economic life. The leading approach to the studying of the problem of changes in ideas about the human capital is the evolutionary approach that allows us to identify the cause-and-effect relations between definitions of this concept and actual necessities of economic development. The author’s hypothesis about the necessity of priority of the human capital and its intellectual component in the study of economic content was proved in the article. It is necessary for the subsequent quantitative analysis of interconnection between the human capital development and structural changes in the economy. In this research the original definition of the concept was formulated. The materials of the article can be useful for development and implementation of the policy of the innovative economic growth in regard to accumulation of the human capital.
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