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347
Journal of
TANMIYAT AL-
RAFIDAIN
(TANRA)
A scientific, quarterly, international,
open access, and peer-reviewed journal
Vol. 41 , No. 136
Dec 2022
© University of Mosul |
College of Administration and
Economics, Mosul, Iraq.
TANRA
retains the copyright of
published articles, which is released
under a "Creative Commons Attribution
License for CC-BY-4.0" enabling the
unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction of an article in any
medium, provided that the original
work is properly cited.
Citation: Salih,
Shler A.; Qader,
Zeki H.; Ahmed, Younis A., (2022).
"The Reality of Governance
Indicators and their Impact on
Economic Growth in Iraq for the
Period (1996 – 2020)".
TANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
,
41(136), 347 -372,
https://doi.org/10.33899/tanra.20
20.165650
P-ISSN: 1609-591X
e-ISSN: 2664-276X
tanmiyat.mosuljournals.com
Research Paper
The Reality of Governance Indicators and their
Impact on Economic Growth in Iraq for the Period
(1996 – 2020)
Shler A. Salih1, Zeki H. Qader 2 ;Younis A. Ahmed3
1&2College of Administration and economics/ Salahaddin University/Erbil.
3College of Administration and economics/ Sulaymaniyah
University/Sulaymaniyah
Corresponding author: Zeki H. Qader
, College of Administration and
economics/ Salahaddin University. zaki.qader@su.edu.krd
DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.33899/tanra.2022.176222
Article History:
Received: 19/7/2022; Revised:10/8/2022; Accepted: 28/8/2022;
Published: 1/12/2022 .
Abstract
This study aims to know the impact of governance in achieving economic growth,
because corporate governance has become one of the main factors of economic
growth models in current studies and research. This study came to show two things:
where the first was concerned with identifying the reality of governance indicators
as one of the expressive concepts of institutional reforms in Iraq and their role in
economic growth through descriptive analysis of data expressing governance. As
for the second, it was limited to the empirical evaluation of the impact of these
indicators on economic growth through the use of time series data for the period
1996-2020 and based on some econometric tools represented by the Autoregressive
Distributed Lags (ARDL), and the study relied on global governance indicators
issued by The World Bank, consisting of (government effectiveness, quality of
legislation, rule of law, voting and accountability, control of corruption, political
stability, and absence of violence).
The study achieved the following results:
- According to the reality of governance indicators in Iraq, it was found that all
indicators fell within the negative performance area, and the worst of them were
the indicators of political stability and the rule of law.
- In terms of the econometrics model, the study concluded that the two indicators
of government effectiveness, voting and accountability have an important and
positive impact on economic growth in the short and long terms, while the study
showed that the political stability indicator has a negative impact in the long term.
One of the reasons that have led to instability is foreign interference, and
therefore, work must be done to create harmony between the components of the
society of various nationalities and religions, as well as to strengthen the status of
security and military institutions and work on their
independence from political
pressures by the influential political parties in Iraq.
Keywords
Governance Indicators, Economic Growth, The Iraqi Economy,ARDL.
348
TANRA
TANRA
Creative Commons Attribution
CC-BY-4.0
https://doi.org/10.33899/tanra.20
20.165650
P-ISSN: 1609-591X
e-ISSN: 2664-276X
tanmiyat.mosuljournals.com
ةيثحب ةقرو
zaki.qader@su.edu.krd
DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.33899/tanra.2022.176222
ARDL
ARDL
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
(ARDL)
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
ARDL
(GLS
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
OLS
Panel-
VECM
Emara&Chiu2016The Impact of Governance Environment on
Economic Growth
PCA
Fayissa&Nsiah2010 The Impact of Governance on Economic
Growth:Futuer Evidence for Africa
Quantile
Regression
Bukkiewicz&Yanikkaya2006 Institutional Quality and
Economic Growth
SUR
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
Nasar&Hamdan2021The Impact of Public Governance on the
Economic Growth :
Al-
Raffia,2019:40
New
Institutional Economic
Mohamed&Massoud,2019:54
Mahmoud,2012:125
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
(Weiss,2000:797)
(UNESCAP,2009:1)
(Jamil,2006:80)
( UNDP,1997:2-3)
Naim, Hamish and) (Afaf,2003:27
Radi&Shukr,2020:93)
(Youssef,2007:23)
(Weiss,2000:798)
( ESCWA,2003:11)
(Suhaila,2006:129)
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
Suhaila,2006:129.
(Issa&Ibrahim,2016:258)
Indicators Worldwide Governance
(Jibril& Sadaqa,2019:360)
(Ferranti,2010:350)
GE
RQ
RL
VA
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
CC
PS
Kaufman D,Kraay A & Masturuzzi M. The Worldwide Governance Indicators, Methodology
and Analytical Issue, Policy Research Working, No.5430 Washington, 2010, p; 4
(Ben Hussein,2006:29)
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
-1.82
-1.6
-1.96
-1.56
-2.15
-2.09
-1.53
-1.43
-1.94
-2.23
-2.23
-1.95
-1.74
-1.5
-2.01
-1.39
-2.2
-1.98
-1.61
-1.41
-2.05
-1.51
-1.99
-1.95
-2.39
-1.21
-1.5
-1.64
-1.41
-1.7
-2.07
-1.48
-1.64
-1.83
-1.65
-1.59
-2.69
-1.37
-1.3
-1.71
-1.53
-1.63
-2.83
-1.45
-1.28
-1.68
-1.39
-1.72
-2.77
-1.46
-1.13
-1.84
-1.32
-1.57
-2.47
-1.46
-1.1
-1.77
-1.15
-1.24
-2.18
-1.33
-1.02
-1.7
-1.01
-1.18
-2.24
-1.26
-0.99
-1.56
-1.05
-1.2
-1.85
-1.17
-1.07
-1.45
-1.09
-1.13
-1.93
-1.22
-1.08
-1.46
-1.25
-1.11
-2.01
-1.28
-1.06
-1.45
-1.24
-1.1
-2.48
-1.33
-1.14
-1.33
-1.25
-1.11
-2.26
-1.37
-1.13
-1.42
-1.24
-1.25
-2.31
-1.39
-1.02
-1.63
-1.13
-1.27
-2.31
-1.37
-1.05
-1.63
-1.2
-1.26
-2.53
-1.39
-1
-1.75
-1.17
-1.31
-2.6
-1.34
-0.96
-1.72
-1.18
-1.34
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
-2.53
-1.28
-1.01
-1.75
-1.38
-1.33
-2.28
-1.37
-1.29
-1.64
-1.42
-1.46
Y
www.worldbank.org/governance
163 Vision
of Humanity
( Salem,2020)
( transparency,2021)
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
(rsf,2021)
ARDL
PesaranShin& Sin
Peasarn et al.2001
Unit Roots TestAugmented Decky-
Fuller Test
Phillips-Peron Test
Johansen TestBound Test
ECM
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
WDI &CBI
GDP
WGI
GE
WGI
RQ
WGI
RL
WGI
VA
WGI
COC
WGI
PS
WDI: World Development Indicators www.worlbank.org
WGI: World Governance Indicators www.worldbank.org/governance
CBI: Central Bank of Iraq www.cbiraq.org
GDP t= B0 + B1 GE t - B2 RQ t + B3 RL t + B4VAt – B5 COC t + B6 PS t +U t
GDP
GE
RQ
RL
VA
COC
PS
Β
t
= U
Unit Roots Test
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
Fuller-Dickey Augmented) ( Phillips Perron
Augmented Dickey-
Fuller
PP: Phillips-Perron
level
First
Difference
level
First
Difference
Trend
Intercept
Trend
Intercept
Trend
Intercept
Trend
Intercept
E-views 10
Phillips-PerronAugmented Dickey-
Fuller
Trend Intercept
I(1)
Co-
integration
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
Co-integration test
Johansen Test)
( Bounds Test
Johansen Test) (
Variables
Prob
Critical
Value (0.05) Trace
statistic
Prob
Critical Value (0.05) Maximum Eigenvalue
0.0001
733.7798
0.0000
189.0364
0.0001
544.7434
0.0001
181.0691
0.0001
363.6744
0.0001
157.3005
0.0000
206.3739
0.0000
107.5841
0.0000
98.78980
0.0000
78.90465
0.0102
19.88515
0.0093
18.70961
0.2783
1.175541
0.2783
1.175541
E-views 10
(Bounds Test)
I(1)
Upper
I(0)
Lower
Significant level
Value
F-
Bounds
Test
2.94
1.99
10%
12.0101Upper
3.28
2.27
5%
3.61
2.55
2.5%
3.99
2.88
1%
E-views 10
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
.
F
Granger Causality Tests.
one direction
or two directionGranger Causality
:
Variables
Prob.
F
0.0207
6.6886
0.5170
0.4405
0.0919
3.2412
0.2915
1.1955
0.0678
3.3955
0.0248
5.1128
0.0799
3.1418
0.0240
5.1738
0.0012
15.7855
0.3640
0.8765
0.0012
15.8654
0.0212
6.6176
E-views 10
•
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
•
•
•
•
•
:
ARDL
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
Dependent
variable
Independent
variable
Coefficient
Prob.
Coefficient
Prob.
GDP
1.0273
0.0479
1.2866
0.0121
1.8087
0.0789
10.418
0.3346
2.3568
0.0795
17.8062
0.4339
3.6810
0.0062
4.6100
0.0001
1.4423
0.0875
1.8063
0.0087
1.9780
0.0584
-17.4242
0.4271
(C)
18.1221
0.0076
CointEq(-1)
1.0416
0.0098
E-views 10
)(
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
0.96=1/
:
2
R
2
Adjusted RStd. ErrorSSRAIC
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
10
LM
Breusch-Godfrey
Test:
0.7981
R-Squared
0.99160
Variance Inflation
Factors
2.638.15
Adjusted R2
0.9778
ARCH test for
Heteroskedasticity
0.5564
F-statistic
Prob(F-
statistic)
71.5772 (0.0000)
Ramsey Reset Test
0.7134
S.E. of
regression
Sum
squared
residual
0.09
0.05
Jarque – Bera Test
0.9620
AIC
-1.59
E-views 10
R2
(
2
Adjusted R
R2
(
2
Adjusted R
F(P-Value 0.05)
Standard Error SSR
(AIC)
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
Cumulative Sum of Recursive Residual-CUSUM
Cumulative Sum of Square Recursive Residual-
CUSUMSQ
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CUSUM 5% Significance
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance
:
(Sifu et al,2006:51)
Thiel Inequality Coefficient
T
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
BP
VP
CP
.
-100,000,000
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
GDPF ± 2 S.E.
Forecast: GDPF
Actual: GDP
Forecast sample: 1996 2020
Adjusted sample: 2003 2020
Included observations: 17
Root Mean Squared Error 11887005
Mean Absolute Error 7633746.
Mean Abs. Percent Error 5.311680
Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.030880
Bias Proportion 0.000014
Variance Proportion 0.016198
Covariance Proportion 0.983788
P-ISSN: 1609-591X; E-ISSN: 2664-276XTANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN
Vol No. Dec. 347-372pp.
.
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