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Assessment of Long-Term Prospects for Demand in the Plastics Market in the Face of Industry Transformation
... "Stated policies" scenario assumes that plastic waste processing industry develops in accordance with the current announced government plans and indicators. Both scenarios assume "inertial" rates of plastic demand growth i.e. unaffected by "plastic bans" and other such regulations, as analyzed in the authors previous work [15]. The average annual growth rates of demand over the forecast period are presented in Fig. 1. ...
Plastic recycling and “closed-loop” plastics market are among the “hot topics” in the global environmentalist agenda. Secondary plastics are lauded as a way to eliminate demand for fossil hydrocarbon feedstock and solve the polymer pollution crisis. The author has reviewed the potential technological capacity of plastic recycling for affecting the oil and energy markets and the current government legislations for the “circular plastics” development. Even under the “best case” scenario, secondary plastics were found to be able to provide around a third of demand by 2030, and state plans indicate even lower figures.
The petrochemical industry grew to become one of the world’s largest industries during the 20th century. It is expected that it will continue to grow, as the world’s population gets...
Over the past four decades, global plastics production has quadrupled¹. If this trend were to continue, the GHG emissions from plastics would reach 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050². Strategies to mitigate the life-cycle GHG emissions of plastics, however, have not been evaluated on a global scale. Here, we compile a dataset covering ten conventional and five bio-based plastics and their life-cycle GHG emissions under various mitigation strategies. Our results show that the global life-cycle GHG emissions of conventional plastics were 1.7 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) in 2015, which would grow to 6.5 GtCO2e by 2050 under the current trajectory. However, aggressive application of renewable energy, recycling and demand-management strategies, in concert, has the potential to keep 2050 emissions comparable to 2015 levels. In addition, replacing fossil fuel feedstock with biomass can further reduce emissions and achieve an absolute reduction from the current level. Our study demonstrates the need for integrating energy, materials, recycling and demand-management strategies to curb growing life-cycle GHG emissions from plastics.
Plastics have outgrown most man-made materials and have long been under environmental scrutiny. However, robust global information, particularly about their end-of-life fate, is lacking. By identifying and synthesizing dispersed data on production, use, and end-of-life management of polymer resins, synthetic fibers, and additives, we present the first global analysis of all mass-produced plastics ever manufactured. We estimate that 8300 million metric tons (Mt) as of virgin plastics have been produced to date. As of 2015, approximately 6300 Mt of plastic waste had been generated, around 9% of which had been recycled, 12% was incinerated, and 79% was accumulated in landfills or the natural environment. If current production and waste management trends continue, roughly 12,000 Mt of plastic waste will be in landfills or in the natural environment by 2050.
The article describes study results on the development of methods for forecasting the demand for petroleum products, some petroleum product groups in the world and in some countries node(nodes). The developed method is based on the combination of different forecasting approaches: correlation, factor, technical, economic and econometric analysis with mathematic economic model elements. The method may be used in the performance of a wide range of tasks: from specific petroleum product market forecasting, such as aviation kerosene or motor gasoline, to system study of the world petroleum market development prospects and the future petroleum role in the energy balance of individual countries and regions.
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