ThesisPDF Available

A Decision Support System for Economic Viability and Environmental Impact Assessment of Vertical Farms

April 2023

Thesis for: PhD
Advisor: Scott Ferson, Ronald Dyer, Adam Mannis, Iain Young

Authors:

University of Liverpool

Vertical farming (VF) is the practice of growing crops or animals using the vertical dimension via multi-tier racks or vertically inclined surfaces. In this thesis, I focus on the emerging industry of plant-specific VF. Vertical plant farming (VPF) is a promising and relatively novel practice that can be conducted in buildings with environmental control and artificial lighting. However, the nascent sector has experienced challenges in economic viability, standardisation, and environmental sustainability. Practitioners and academics call for a comprehensive financial analysis of VPF, but efforts are stifled by a lack of valid and available data. A review of economic estimation and horticultural software identifies a need for a decision support system (DSS) that facilitates risk-empowered business planning for vertical farmers. This thesis proposes an open-source DSS framework to evaluate business sustainability through financial risk and environmental impact assessments. Data from the literature, alongside lessons learned from industry practitioners, would be centralised in the proposed DSS using imprecise data techniques. These techniques have been applied in engineering but are seldom used in financial forecasting. This could benefit complex sectors which only have scarce data to predict business viability. To begin the execution of the DSS framework, VPF practitioners were interviewed using a mixed-methods approach. Learnings from over 19 shuttered and operational VPF projects provide insights into the barriers inhibiting scalability and identifying risks to form a risk taxonomy. Labour was the most commonly reported top challenge. Therefore, research was conducted to explore lean principles to improve productivity. A probabilistic model representing a spectrum of variables and their associated uncertainty was built according to the DSS framework to evaluate the financial risk for VF projects. This enabled flexible computation without precise production or financial data to improve economic estimation accuracy. The model assessed two VPF cases (one in the UK and another in Japan), demonstrating the first risk and uncertainty quantification of VPF business models in the literature. The results highlighted measures to improve economic viability and the viability of the UK and Japan case. The environmental impact assessment model was developed, allowing VPF operators to evaluate their carbon footprint compared to traditional agriculture using life-cycle assessment. I explore strategies for net-zero carbon production through sensitivity analysis. Renewable energies, especially solar, geothermal, and tidal power, show promise for reducing the carbon emissions of indoor VPF. Results show that renewably-powered VPF can reduce carbon emissions compared to field-based agriculture when considering the land-use change. The drivers for DSS adoption have been researched, showing a pathway of compliance and design thinking to overcome the ‘problem of implementation’ and enable commercialisation. Further work is suggested to standardise VF equipment, collect benchmarking data, and characterise risks. This work will reduce risk and uncertainty and accelerate the sector’s emergence.

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A Decision Support System for Economic

Viability and Environmental Impact

Assessment of Vertical Farms

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Thesis submitted in accordance with the requirements of the University of Liverpool

for the degree of Doctor in Philosophy in Engineering.

Francis José Baumont de Oliveira

M.Eng, Aerospace Engineering

Supervised by

Prof. Scott Ferson

Dr Ronald Dyer

Mr Adam Mannis

Dr Iain Young

November 

SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

PH.D. THESIS

DEDICATION

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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

           

             







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      



              





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



         







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



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









iii







           







       



      





            







DECLARATION OF ACADEMIC INTEGRITY

Student Number

200887831

School/Institute

School of Engineering

Title of Work

A Decision Support System for

Economic Viability and

Environmental Impact Assessment of

Vertical Farms

STUDENT DECLARATION



•            



•           



•  

         



•              

          



• 





• 



• 

          



•           

      





          



            

International Journal of Decision Support System Technology



    





Advances in Plant Factories: New Technologies

in Indoor VerticalFarming    





Procedia CIRP



         

  53rd CIRP

Conference on Manufacturing Systems 2020

             

Sustainability,              

          

       

         





Acta Horticulturae, 2023,





        

          







International Journal of Decision Support System

Technology

         

   







ABSTRACT

             





      









            

     

          

 





            





    



            

         



          



         

         

              

          

      







vii



         

           

        



           

 



         



Keywords: Vertical plant farming, plant factories with artificial lighting, financial

forecasting, indoor farming, environmental impact assessment, probability bounds

analysis, decision support system, lean manufacturing, lessons learned, risk assessment,

uncertainty quantification.

viii

LIST OF PUBLICATIONS



           



International Journal of Decision Support System Technology

 



Sustainability

 

         

 International Journal of Decision Support System

Technology 15(2), 2023.

 

Software Impacts



 

  Advances in Plant Factories: New Technologies in

Indoor Vertical Farming

 



RUC-APS Springer Book Volume 2



 

      Proceedings of 5th International

Conference on Decision Support System Technology 2019 on “Decision Support

Systems: Main Developments & Future Trends”. .*

         



2.          

Procedia CIRP

53rd CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems,

2020 in Chicago, IL, USA.

          

          

         

 Proceedings of 6th International Conference on Decision Support System

Technology 2020 on “Cognitive Decision Support Systems & Technologies". 

           

           

       

       31st International Horticultural

Congress 2022 in Angers, France for the International Symposium on Advances in

Vertical Farming.

           

         

Procedia CIRP30th CIRP Conference

on Design, 2020 in Skukuza, South Africa.



           

       

ResearchGate

 
 
x 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
Dedication i 
Acknowledgements ii 
Declaration of Academic Integrity iv 
Abstract vi 
List of Publications viii 
Table of Contents x 
List of Tables xiii 
List of Figures xv 
List of Equations xix 
List of Abbreviations xx 
Nomenclature xxii 
1. Introduction 1 
1.1 Problem Statement 10 
1.2 Aim and Objectives 12 
1.3 Structure of Thesis 13 
1.4 Summary of Original Contributions 15 
2. Literature Review 18 
Framing 18 
2.1 Abstract 19 
2.2 Introduction 19 
2.3 Classifications 21 
2.4 Vertical Plant Farming Configurations 27 
2.5 Vertical Plant Farming Business Models 37 
2.6 Economic analyses review 40 
2.7 Conclusions 53 
3. Decision Support System Framework 56 
Framing 56 
3.1 Abstract 58 

 
 
xi 
2 Introduction 58 
3 Decision Support System Solution 62 
4 Literature Review 63 
5 Methodology 69 
6 Decision Support System 78 
7 Conclusions 91 
Qualitative Interview Study 94 
Framing 94 
1 Abstract 96 
2 Introduction 96 
3 Methodology 99 
4 Results 100 
5 Conclusion 134 
6 Guidelines 136 
Lean Principles in Vertical Farming 139 
Framing 139 
1 Abstract 141 
2 Introduction 141 
3 Case Study: Liverpool Crypt Farm 144 
4 Lean Principles Applied to Vertical Farming 145 
5 Lean Development at the Case Study Farm 149 
6 Conclusions and Future Works 151 
Financial Risk Assessment Model 153 
Framing 153 
1 Abstract 155 
2 Introduction 155 
3 Related Works 158 
4 Methodology 165 
5 Results 173 
6 Discussion 181 

 
 
xii 
6.7 Conclusions 189 
6.8 Supplementary Materials 191 
6.9 Data Availability Statement 191 
7. Environmental Impact Model 193 
Framing 193 
7.1 Abstract 195 
7.2 Introduction 195 
7.3 Methods 197 
7.4 Results and Discussion 199 
7.5 Conclusion 202 
8. Drivers of Decision Support System Adoption in Agriculture 203 
Framing 203 
8.1 Abstract 205 
8.2 Introduction 205 
8.3 Related Works 209 
8.4 Participative DSS Design 212 
8.5 System Overview 215 
8.6 Initial Evaluation 218 
8.7 Conclusions and Future Work 223 
9. Conclusions And Future Works 225 
9.1 Conclusions 225 
9.2 Future Works and Recommendations 233 
References 236 
Appendices 271 
A. Economic Analyses Capital and Operational Costs Breakdown 271 
B. Financial Model Method Statement 273 
C. Financial Model Supplementary Data 286 
D. Environmental Impact Model Supplementary Data 309 
E. Ethical Approval for Interviews 319 

 
 
xiii 
LIST OF TABLES 
 ...  
 ..............................................  
 ..............................................................................  
 ....................................................................  
 .........................  
 .............................  
 ........  
 ..................................................................  
 .................................................................  
 ...................................................................  
 ................................................................................................ 
 ............................................................................  
 ....................................................................  
 ..........................................................................  
 .................................................................................  
 .........................................................................  
 ...............................................................................  
 ...............................................................................  
 ..................................  
 ............................  
 ............................................  
 ...........................  
 .....................  
 .....  
 ................................................... 
 ............  
 .......................... 
 ............................  
 ...........................  
 .........................................................................................  

 
 
xiv 
 .......................................  
 .........................................................................  
 ..................................................................................  
 ..................................................................................  
 ............................................................................................  
 ............................  
 .........................................  
 ...........................................................  
 ..........................  
 .............................................................  
 ............................................... 
 ............................................................................  
 ...........................................................  
 ...................................................................  
 ...............................................  
 ............................................................  
 ...................  
 ........  
 ................  
 ........  
..........  
.......................  
 .............................................................  
 .............................................  
 ...........................................................................  
 .................................................................................  
 ...............................................................  
 
  

 
 
xv 
LIST OF FIGURES 
 ...............  
 ...................................................  
 .....................................  
 .................................................  
 .....  
 .....  
 ...........................................................  
 ....................................................................................  
 ...................................................................................  
 ....................................................  
 .............................................................  
 ..........................................................  
 .......................................  
 ......................................................................................  
 .......................................................................  
 .......................................................................  
 ...............................................................  
 .........................................  
 ...  
 ................................................  
 ...............  
 ..  
 .............  
 ...........  
 ................................................................................  
 ......................................................  
 ....................  
 .....................................................................  
 ...............................................  
 ..............  

 
 
xvi 
 ....................  
 ..................  
 ..................................................  
 ........................................................................  
 .....................  
 ......................................  
 .....................................................................  
 ........................................................  
 ........................................  
 ...............................  
 ................................................................  
 .....................................................................  
 ...............................................  
 .............................................................  
 ....................................  
 ...................................................................  
 ............................................. 
 ....................................................................  
 .............................................................  
 ..........................................................  
 ...................................................................  
 ...............................................................................  
 ..........................................................  
 ..........................................................................  
 .................................................  
 .................................... 
 ..................  
 ............  
 ..................... 
 ..............................  
 .........  

 
 
xvii 
 ..................................................................................  
 .................................................  
 ...........................  
 ...................  
...............  
 ..........  
 .................................................................  
 ............................................................................  
 .................................  
 ......  
 ....................................................................  
 .................................................................  
 .  
 ...................  
 .......................  
 .  
 ...... 
 ...........  
 ............................................................  
 ..................  
 .....................................................  
 .......................................................................  
 .....  
 .................  
 ......................  
 .......................  
 .................................................................  
 ........................................  
 .............................................................  
 ..................................................  
 ......................................................  

 
 
xviii 
 .................................................  
 .........................................................  
 ..........................................................  
...................................................  
 ...............................................  
 ........  
 ..............................  
 ..........  
 .................  
 .......................  
 ..........................  
 ...........................  
.....................  
 ...............  
 .................................  
 ......................................................  
 ...........................................  
 ................................................  
 ..........................................  
 ..................................................  
 ...................................................  
 .............................................  
 .........................................  
 ......................................  
 .................  
 
  

 
 
xix 
LIST OF EQUATIONS 
 .........................................................................  
 ..................................................................................  
 ......................................................................  
 .............................................................  
 .......................................................................  
 ..............................................................................  
 ......................................  
 ........................................................................................  
 ............................................................................  
 ......................................................................  
.......................................................................  
 .......................................................................  
 ................................................................................  
 ....................................................................  
 ...........................................................  
 .....................................................................  
 ............................................................................  
 ....................................  
 ......................................................................  
 ......................................................................................  
 ............................................................................................  
 .........................................................................  
 ....................................................................  
 .......................  
 ............................  
 
  

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS









































































xxi











































































xxii

NOMENCLATURE









  Insolvency



















  Threshold of Cashflow Becoming Negative



  Threshold of ROI Specified by the User of the Software





CHAPTER 1

1. INTRODUCTION

“Agriculture makes people dependent on a few domesticated crops and animals instead

of hundreds of wild food sources, creating vulnerability to droughts and blights and

zoonotic diseases.” – 



 

  



           





          

            

        









 





    













          





             





“Cities should learn to behave as ecosystems rather than parasites.” – 



           

            

          











             

         



            

            

      

          





      



Table 1.1. 









 

































































 









 









 

















  

















































  

























    













  











        



—



          



        

            



           

     





          

            

     



 







          





            

        

   





          



   

            

       

         



         

        

            





         





 







  







           

            



Figure 1.1. 











 



 

        



 

         



 

          



          



           



 



 

 





         



         

            









          

           

           



           

           



 

           



       



       

              

          



             

      





          

















      







   



            



    

    

     