No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
The Public Choice Approach to International Sanctions: Retrospect and Prospect
Abstract
Reviews and summarizes different public choice approaches used in the literature to study International Sanctions
... Результаты работы могут быть использованы для структурирования последующих исследований в данной области. [14] noted a trend toward protectionism that further reduces the dollar's importance. ...
... The government will be forced to refinance existing debt at a higher rate, driving the interest payments up. This is critical given the US budget deficit 14 and limited funds availability. In the end, the government might need to cut spending on potentially essential projects (e. g., military, education, infrastructure) to make the budget even. ...
This research aims to identify possible global monetary system development scenarios in the context of the current United States dollar supremacy.
The primary method used is foresight analysis, which is based on a combination of deductive and historical data and trend analyses. The paper outlines the main drivers of potential change and uses them as inputs for scenario analysis. The three considered scenarios are a continuation of the absolute dollar dominance, reduction of the dollar’s power and split of the world economy between multiple currencies, and the emergence of a new single prevalent currency.
The main conclusion is that the second multipolar scenario resembles the current dynamics the most and is considered the baseline. However, the answer depends on the forecasting horizon as the scenarios have a certain sequencing. The dollar will probably maintain its supremacy in the short term. Its decline in the mid-term will give rise to a multipolar world, which can then, theoretically, lead to the emergence of a new dominant currency in the long term.
The results might be used as a framework for further structured analysis of possible outcomes in this domain.
... Использование национальных валют предоставляет ряд преимуществ в части гибкого управления валютными резервами за счет развития инновационных финансовых технологий, облегчающих проведение операций по покупке и продаже валюты, размещение и удержание открытых валютных позиций, а также развитой системы автоматического управления ликвидностью и маркетмейкинга, что делает размещение резервов в указанных валютах для участников международной Дополнительным риск-фактором снижения использования доллара США в последние годы по мнению некоторых исследователей стала активная санкционная политика в отношении Российской Федерации, в результате которой произошла переориентация отечественной экономики и системы расчетов для осуществления внешней торговли на валюты развивающихся стран [24], а также рост протекционизма во внешней торговле, ограничивающего спрос на ключевые резервные валюты, в том числе, за счет репатриации капитала [21]. При этом ряд исследователей придерживаются мнения о том, что будущее глобального экономического и финансового пространства будет определяться рядом ключевых факторов, одним из которых выступает цифровизация различных секторов экономики (включая финансовый сектор), а также фактор быстрого технологического развития, влияющий на изменение глобального экономического и финансового ландшафта [12,26]. ...
The article is devoted to the issues of evolution and modern transformation of the architecture of the global financial system. The relevance of the study lies in the importance of detailing the current issues of the influence of the currency factor on international trade, settlements and pricing in the commodity markets in the context of deglobalization and rapid transformation of the global financial system, the transition to a multipolar world order. The purpose of the study is to analyze the role of national currencies in the transformation of the global financial system and their influence on the processes of formation of a multipolar world order. The objectives of the study include a comprehensive analysis of the currency composition of international settlements and foreign exchange reserves, as well as detailing the dynamics of the use of national currencies in international reserves and settlements. The methods of the study include analysis (structural-dynamic, statistical), the method of expert assessments. The data sample covers the period from 2000 to 2024 and is based on data from international financial institutions and organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), SWIFT. As a result of the study, based on statistical data, the hypothesis about the decreasing role of the US dollar in the global financial system was confirmed, which is manifested in the reduction of its use in sovereign international currency reserves, as well as in the implementation of international settlements. In parallel with the decrease in the share of the US dollar, it is being replaced by national currencies. In turn, the change in the currency composition serves as an additional driver of deglobalization of the global financial system, the formation of new currency associations and alternative settlement systems. The scope of application of the results includes the development of currency regulation strategies, improvement of international financial cooperation and the formation of a more equitable and sustainable global financial system. The limitations of the study are related to the limited frequency of release of statistical data on international currency reserves, as well as the limited availability of statistical information on investments in Chinese government securities. Future research may be aimed at studying the impact of digital currencies and blockchain technologies on the transformation of the global financial system.
... Alongside this reality, China's accession to the WTO in 2001 accelerated the US/China rivalry ( Van Bergeijk 2021). The greater conflict in the international system created a new geopolitical and geoeconomic context that, along with the global financial crisis of 2007 and the recent pandemic crisis, deepened the trend of economic deglobalization (Papava 2022) and turned sanctions into a more relevant political instrument (Halcoussis et al. 2021). ...
Sanctions are a recurrent issue on the international scene that has gained relevance in recent decades. This article intends to approach this matter in an innovative way by analyzing the relative importance of sanctions’ types and objectives, besides target countries’ characteristics, on sanctions outcomes. Unlike most previous studies, we use more comprehensive data and a competing risk discrete-time hazard model to analyze the differences between sanctions termination by target compliance and sender capitulation. Our results show that the determinants for the two outcomes differ and that there are differences in the efficacy of sanctions according to their type and objective. We conclude that while higher levels of political volatility, democracy, and equality in target countries increase the probability of compliance, higher levels of democracy and globalization increase the probability of sender capitulation. Smart sanctions seem to be more effective at targeting compliance, as the likelihood of compliance is higher for financial and military sanctions than for trade. The likelihood of compliance also increases if the objective is to promote democracy and decreases if the objectives are policy, regime change, or terrorism. Instead, the probability of sender capitulation is higher for travel and trade sanctions and if the objective is to promote human rights.
... A theoretical basis for targeting sanctions can be found in the Public Choice approach to economic sanctions (Kaempfer and Lowenberg 1988;Halcoussis 2021) that recognizes the distributional aspects of sanctions. The mechanism is in a nutshell that different (interest) groups populations will be hit differentlyboth in relative and absolute terms. ...
This paper studies the case of the sanctions against the Russian war with the Ukraine in 2022 against the background of four major and well-documented historical sanction episodes: (a) the anti-Apartheid sanctions of the 1980s, (b) the sanctions against the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait in 1990, (c) the sanctions against Iranian nuclear capabilities and (d) the US and EU sanctions against the Russian annexation of the Crimea. Two cases (South-Africa and Iran) have a comparatively low ex ante probability of success based on pre-sanction proportional trade linkage and regime type (the autocracy score). The key to understanding their success is in the banking channel (debt-crisis and SWIFT sanctions) and the behaviour of the private sector (divestment and over-compliance). The failure of the sanctions against Iraq underscores the importance of regime type and the need for a viable exit strategy and shows that some decision-makers cannot be influenced with economic hardship. The 2014 sanctions against Russia illustrate the comparative vulnerability of the European democracies and their weakness in organizing comprehensive sanctions that bite. Given the increased Russian resilience, the increasingly autocratic nature of President Putin’s government, the credibility of his 2014 tit-for-tat strategy and the failure of European democracies to implement appropriate strong and broad based measures smart and targeted sanctions are unlikely to influence the Kremlin’s calculus. The European Union could only influence that calculus by restoring its reputation as a credible applicant of strong sanctions, including an embargo on capital goods and a boycott of Russian energy.
Over the years, Ghana’s macroeconomic frameworks have led to slow economic growth. This necessitates the revision of policies for macroeconomic control and the pursuit of pragmatic policies that enhance economic growth, which policymakers should prioritize when framing economic plans.
This paper aims to explore the impact of key economic growth factors, such as tax revenue on economic growth in Ghana and the interactive effect of inflation on economic growth.
We have used the methods of explanatory research and quantitative approaches to analyze the historical economic data for Ghana. This study examines the nexus between tax revenue and economic growth. In addition, it examines the multiplicative role of inflation in the relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Ghana. The study uses secondary time series data collected for 19 years from 2005–2023 and employs the autoregressive distributed lag testing to cointegration estimation technique to analyze tax revenue growth, economic growth, foreign direct investment, policy rate, inflation, and government expenditure.
The results showed that the tax revenue growth rate has a statistically significant positive relationship with economic growth in both the short and long run. In addition, the study revealed a statistically significant negative moderating effect of inflation in the relationship between tax revenue growth and economic growth in both the interim period and the long run. It was revealed that the impact of tax revenue on economic growth is more intense in the short run than in the long run.
The key conclusion of the paper is that a rise in tax revenue facilitates economic growth more in the short run than in the long run in Ghana. Additionally, the rising cost of goods and services dampens economic growth, and inflation diminishes the enhancing effect of tax revenue on economic growth.
Fiscal policies and their impact on development have received myriad reactions in recent times. The interactive role of Institutional Quality (IQ) in the fiscal policy-Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) nexus in the anglophone countries in West Africa has remained unexplored. This paper examines the nexus between fiscal policy measures and SDGs. To examine the moderating role of IQ in the fiscal policy-SDGs nexus. Using panel data from 2005–2021, the study employed the Ordinary Least Square and Robust Least Square regression techniques for estimations. Findings revealed a negative association between government revenue and SDGs. Similarly, the study found government expenditure negatively affects SDGs. On the other hand, the result showed that the rule of law negatively and significantly moderates the relationship between proxied fiscal policy measures and SDGs. Lastly, the paper discovered that regulatory quality plays a significant positive moderating role in the fiscal policy-SDGs nexus.
Motivated by the claim that China and Russia purposefully and systematically undermine Western sanction efforts, we study the effects of US and EU sanctions on trade flows between sanctioned and third countries during the period 2002–2019. We find no evidence of systematic sanction busting by Russia. For China, our results are more ambiguous. While we do not find robust evidence for an increase in overall trade between China and countries targeted by Western sanctions, trade in (raw) materials and critical goods increases notably.
The development of international economic relations in the post-war decades took place in the context of consistent globalization, the opening of national markets, and the liberalization of cross-border mobility of production factors. The system of international economic institutions that was being formed at the same time contributed to the increasing benefi ts of countries from participating in the international division of labor. At the same time, the increase in economic openness gave rise to more and more contradictions and problems: intercountry inequality grew, the debt burden of many countries, distortions in international exchange formed. The outbreak of the trade confl ict between the US and China has become, perhaps, one of the most dramatic events, blurring the existing contours of liberal international exchange. In fact, at the present time we are talking about the "sanctions catechism" as a new doctrine, a new system of views integrating disparate and highly contradictory approaches to the study of sanctions and sanctions regimes. The purpose of our study was to review the theoretical concepts, approaches and tools for imposing sanctions in modern international economic relations. With the growth of contradictions in the global economy in international practice, the use of various kinds of economic sanctions has increased on a large scale, which have become a kind of context for the development of modern international economic relations. As shown in article, the evolution of the practice of applying economic sanctions gives rise to more and more research problems related to the deglobalization of the world economy,new technological trends in its development, as well as to the increasing global crises, in particular, the crisis, caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
The development of international economic relations in the post-war decades took place in the context of consistent globalization, the opening of national markets, and the liberalization of cross-border mobility of production factors. The system of international economic institutions that was being formed at the same time contributed to the increasing benefi ts of countries from participating in the international division of labor. At the same time, the increase in economic openness gave rise to more and more contradictions and problems: intercountry inequality grew, the debt burden of many countries, distortions in international exchange formed. The outbreak of the trade confl ict between the US and China has become, perhaps, one of the most dramatic events, blurring the existing contours of liberal international exchange. In fact, at the present time we are talking about the "sanctions catechism" as a new doctrine, a new system of views integrating disparate and highly contradictory approaches to the study of sanctions and sanctions regimes. The purpose of our study was to review the theoretical concepts, approaches and tools for imposing sanctions in modern international economic relations. With the growth of contradictions in the global economy in international practice, the use of various kinds of economic sanctions has increased on a large scale, which have become a kind of context for the development of modern international economic relations. As shown in article, the evolution of the practice of applying economic sanctions gives rise to more and more research problems related to the deglobalization of the world economy, new technological trends in its development, as well as to the increasing global crises, in particular, the crisis, caused by the corona virus pandemic.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.