No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
DEVELOPMENT OF COMPETENCES FOR THE NEEDS OF TOMORROW’S LABOUR MARKET
... W szczególności koncentrują się one na takich kompetencjach, jak negocjacje i komunikacja, przewidywanie i minimalizowanie ryzyka, współpraca zespołowa, odporność na stres oraz funkcjonowanie w dynamicznym środowisku pracy. Ważne są także umiejętności związane z delegowaniem zadań i zarządzaniem zespołem, poszukiwaniem oraz wdrażaniem nowych rozwiązań technologicznych, a także gotowością do ciągłego rozwoju 47 . ...
Publikacja / Publication Analiza i ocena zdolności myślenia perspektywicznego i kompetencji transwersalnych wśród uczniów i studentów z województwa podlaskiego-studia foresightowe, Szpilko Danuta DOI wersji wydawcy / Published version DOI http://dx.
... W szczególności koncentrują się one na takich kompetencjach, jak negocjacje i komunikacja, przewidywanie i minimalizowanie ryzyka, współpraca zespołowa, odporność na stres oraz funkcjonowanie w dynamicznym środowisku pracy. Ważne są także umiejętności związane z delegowaniem zadań i zarządzaniem zespołem, poszukiwaniem oraz wdrażaniem nowych rozwiązań technologicznych, a także gotowością do ciągłego rozwoju 47 . ...
The paper is dedicated to a philosophical consideration of the transformation strategies for higher education, particularly those revealed by the current Covid-19 pandemic. The situation of the latter is presented as a particular form of the general VUCA characteristics of the today’s world of uncertainty, unpredictability and qualitative complexity (‘supercomplexity’). It is argued that the main result of our acknowledgement of the VUCA situation in the world for higher education is the image of the developed human personality becoming the main value and at the same time the main goal of higher education. Under the conditions of volatility and ambiguity, any existing ‘ready-made’ knowledge, as well as any instructions for effective rational behavior, turns to be inadequate. Because of that, it is no longer sufficient to have a set of ‘competences’ as a final result of the educational process at today’s university. Higher education has to turn to developing in its graduates certain multidisciplinary qualities, like critical independent thinking and ability to create one’s own knowledge, up to aiming at an all-round development of cultured personality. The paper argues that the education of critical and creative thinking is closely related to the transition to student-centered learning, as each individual student is to become a full-powered subject of the educational process according to one’s own interests, abilities and curricula, with the role of a teacher starting to resemble that of a moderator, the one who is to help his or her undergraduates to navigate through the vast ocean of available information in order for them to choose and to create their own, personal knowledge. The latter task is especially enforced by the distant and online learning having become popular during the Covid-19 pandemic: that form of learning puts especially high demands on self-discipline and self-responsibility of a student’s personality, while presenting itself as rather a supplement than a replacement to more traditional forms of higher education with personal communication between student and teacher.
Strategic Foresight (SF) is required for an organisation in facing Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) environment to maintain relevant in future. There are many studies on application of SF by organisations in preparing for the unexpected. Especially, the relationship between SF and dynamic capabilities (DC) of an organisation. Thus, this study developed a mediation model which comprises of five exogenous constructs namely environmental scanning (ES); scenario planning (SP); knowledge creation (KC); culture (CU) and formal organization (FO), one endogenous construct of dynamic capabilities and one mediator construct of organisational learning capability (OLC). The data use to develop the model was derived from 209 respondents that participated in the questionnaire survey. The respondents were selected using a purposive random sampling technique amongst individuals who involved in decision-maker position of UAE organizations. The model was evaluated at measurement and structural components to achieve the fitness criteria values. It was found that the model has achieved GoF value of 0.8423 which indicates high overall validatingpower. This means that the model is rated as a high-quality model. After achieving these fitness criteria, hypothesis testing was conducted through bootstrapping function of the software. It was found that only two out of five of the direct effect relationships are significant, which are knowledge creation and formal organisation have significant relationships with the dynamic capabilities of the organisations. For mediation/indirect effect, it was found that organisational learning capacity as the mediator has significant effects toward three relationships which are scenario planning with dynamic capabilities; culture with dynamic capabilities and formal organisation with dynamic capabilities.
The development of a European sustainability competence framework is one of the policy actions set out in the European Green Deal as a catalyst to promote learning on environmental sustainability in the European Union. GreenComp identifies a set of sustainability competences to feed into education programmes to help learners develop knowledge, skills and attitudes that promote ways to think, plan and act with empathy, responsibility, and care for our planet and for public health. This work began with a literature review and drew on several consultations with experts and stakeholders working in the field of sustainability education and lifelong learning. The results presented in this report form a framework for learning for environmental sustainability that can be applied in any learning context. The report shares working definitions of sustainability and learning for environmental sustainability that forms the basis for the framework to build consensus and bridge the gap between experts and other stakeholders. GreenComp comprises four interrelated competence areas: ‘embodying sustainability values’, ‘embracing complexity in sustainability’, ‘envisioning sustainable futures’ and ‘acting for sustainability’. Each area comprises three competences that are interlinked and equally important. GreenComp is designed to be a non-prescriptive reference for learning schemes fostering sustainability as a competence.
The purpose of the article is to study the influence of the Vuca-world on the professional training of students and their competitiveness. The study presents an analysis of adaptations of an agile approach that meets the requirements of Vuca, a test of the formation of the level of competitiveness of students of a higher education institution according to the selected criteria. The study found that the training of students in the Vuca-world is becoming more technological, aimed at the formation of independent and creative specialists who can solve problems in interaction. The level of students' competitiveness in the new environment is getting higher.
In this paper, we argue that a key component of futures literacy is reflexivity regarding different attitudes toward the future. Various intellectual traditions and futures practices make epistemologically distinct claims about the future and its manifestations in the present. Through their different outlooks on analyzing, understanding, and influencing the future, these diverse approaches represent fundamentally different attitudes to what it means to meaningfully engage with the future. Because of this diversity of attitudes toward the future, and the different possible modes of engagement with the future, futures literacy is more complex than it appears at first glance. Looking at recent developments in futures literature, we build on four epistemologically and ontologically distinct approaches to the problem of the future. We argue that being futures literate depends on reflexivity about these different engagements with the future, and what these different approaches can offer future-oriented action respectively. Such reflexivity entails being reflexive about how different approaches to the problem of the future arise, as well as about the underlying power structures. We also investigate possibilities to cultivate this futures reflexivity and conclude with a set of questions to guide future research in deepening reflexivity as a key element of futures literacy.
Rapid and profound changes anticipated in the future of work will have significant implications for the education and training of occupational safety and health (OSH) professionals and the workforce. As the nature of the workplace, work, and the workforce change, the OSH field must expand its focus to include existing and new hazards (some yet unknown), consider how to protect the health and well-being of a diverse workforce, and understand and mitigate the safety implications of new work arrangements. Preparing for these changes is critical to developing proactive systems that can protect workers, prevent injury and illness, and promote worker well-being. An in-person workshop held on February 3-4, 2020 at The University of Texas Health Science Center (UTHealth) School of Public Health in Houston, Texas, USA, examined some of the challenges and opportunities OSH education will face in both academic and industry settings. The onslaught of the COVID-19 global pandemic reached the United States one month after this workshop and greatly accelerated the pace of change. This article summarizes presentations from national experts and thought leaders across the spectrum of OSH and professionals in the fields of strategic foresight, systems thinking, and industry, and provides recommendations for the field.
The 4th Industrial Revolution has modified the model of society worldwide. Short-term change has taken hold of everyday life, and people who do not cope with it become obsolete. Under this scenario, the life and work of the university graduates became fickle since their near future grows in uncertainty. Thus, we aimed to shed light on human optimization pathways from Higher Education in the knowledge-based society and economy, which made possible a new industry. In this line, we conducted an analysis underpinned by critical hermeneutics from educational policy proposals, research findings, and analytical philosophy. After analyzing the context, the person, and the learning needs, we offered a clearer idea of the universities 4.0, where the ‘learning to learn’ meta-competence appears to be a key factor for working and living well. This meta-competence may lead to enable human optimization and overcome human obsolescence in a way in which people be increasingly valuable to invest their values in their communities. This paper includes some guidelines for Higher Education institutions to enhance organization and curriculum, according to the new model of society and the human conditions. The ideal of well-being, of what is better or convenient, is left to a necessarily subjective discussion, although not lacking in reasoned criteria for each moment and circumstance.
The purpose of the article is to study the reasons for the termination of entrepreneurial activity, as well as the accumulated experience of entrepreneurs leaving their business. Research on the principles and concepts of business termination became widespread in the late twentieth and early twenty-first century. At first, only Western European and American scientists were interested in this problem. Since 2005, the geography of researchers has expanded significantly. Our analysis is based on the consideration of monographs, articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals, published working papers and research reports. The article presents the characteristics of the main reasons and ways of entrepreneurs out of business. Author proposes their classification and systematization. The results of the study can be used in scientific research of entrepreneurship. They can be used in the educational activities of higher educational institutions. The results are of interest to existing entrepreneurs, helping them to properly build business exit programs.
This chapter offers an introduction to a capability called Futures Literacy (FL), a framework for making sense of the anticipatory assumptions that distinguish different kinds of FL, and one specific research tool called Futures Literacy Laboratories (FLL) that has been designed to explore anticipatory assumptions. The chapter points to the following conclusions. First that FL is a practical skill that develops as people gain a better understanding of anticipatory assumptions. Second that our understanding of anticipatory assumptions requires a robust theory of anticipatory systems and processes. Third, FL has potentially important implications for the conceptualization and deployment of human agency, particularly with respect to our relationship to complexity.
In modern conditions of a high level of uncertainty in the development of science, engineering and technology in economic sectors, it is necessary to learn how to manage this long-term process purposefully, which is possible through forecasting tools, for example, foresight methodology. This is especially true for agriculture, and in particular for the crop sector, where the level of uncertainty is much higher than in other sectors due to work with living organisms and the impact on the results of production of natural and climatic conditions. The consistent use of foresight tools made it possible to develop a Strategy for the scientific and technological development of the crop industry for the Novosibirsk region, the algorithm of which is presented in this article. The main feature of the Strategy will be the identification of promising areas of scientific and technological development depending on the natural and agricultural zoning of the region, which allows one to take into account the specifics of different regions of the Novosibirsk region to build a more accurate and high-quality forecast.
This paper challenges the solely rational view of the scenario technique as a strategy and foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future states. The paper employs an affordance-based view that allows for the identification and structuring of hidden, emergent attributes of the scenario technique beyond the intended ones. The suggested framework distinguishes between affordances (1) that are intended by the organization and relate to its goals, (2) that emergently generate organizational benefits, and (3) that do not relate to organizational but individual interests. Also, constraints in the use of scenarios are discussed. Affordance theory’s specific lens shows that the emergence of such attributes depends on the users’ specific intentions.
Abstract: The world is changing at an increasingly rapid pace. In the span of only a few short years, we have witnessed technological progress, population growth, and globalization to a degree not seen in the lifetimes of our ancestors. Machines are also becoming smarter and more capable. As automation increases in domains where human labor and decision-making were once necessary, it will become increasingly difficult for individuals to create value and meaning through work. And, if one does find a niche, further changes may soon take place-new technology will acquire new skills, and people will continuously need to adapt. As a consequence of this growing dynamism, it is no longer sufficient to adapt to any one environment; humans and society must learn to adapt to change itself-they must increasingly learn to learn. In this paper, we begin with a brief account of how brains and minds work based on a theory broadly known as predictive processing (Friston, 2003; Clark, 2013). According to this view, humans come to understand and perceive the world by making predictions, a process that is therefore at the heart of understanding how humans deal with unpredictable circumstances. We then discuss research on how humans and machines respond in situations characterised by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA), and the role of agency in social and moral situations. We conclude by arguing that learning-to-learn and meta-learning strategies are key capacities that currently distinguish humans from machines. For society to be generally adaptable to change, we propose that social structures and education systems will need to nurture skills that foster general and transferable learning capacities (rather than, or in addition to, specific skills). For humans to flourish in the future, governments are also encouraged to incentivize citizens who possess skills to become teachers and mentors. Society can be made robust when experts are inclined to teach those who are willing and able to learn. Ruben Laukkonen: ruben. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2 │ Overview In this paper, we describe the challenges posed by VUCA: Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. We begin by providing a brief review of human behavior and decision making in VUCA situations. In doing so, we hope to illustrate how human minds and brains typically respond in unpredictable situations, and then based on this review, provide some recommendations about how to prepare for an increasingly dynamic world. We then compare human and machine abilities. The comparison to "intelligent" machines is valuable because it highlights the specific human capacities that are not easily replicated in computers. The challenge of building artificial intelligence (AI) also reveals important insights into the human skills and competencies that are likely to be important in the future. The distinguished fellow at the Institute for the Future, and best-selling author, Bob Johansen (2013), said that, "The ultimate dilemma is to take the VUCA world and change it from a threatening thing, which it certainly is, into a world that is not only threatening but also laden with opportunity." To this end, we provide actionable methods for individuals and society to become robust and adaptable to many future outcomes and possible opportunities.
The purpose of this article is to examine problems related to the role of the educational system in the development of society, with the objectives of modern education in preparation for professional performance. Authors have analyzed the competence-based approach in education. They propose original structural and mathematical model of intellectual competence, methods for its evaluation and presenting its profile. The authors conclude that the purpose of education in modern society is to shape humanistic motivated competent individual. Index Terms: role of educational system; competence; remit; competence-based education; intellectual competence structure.
In an operational environment that changes continuously the classical education cannot last for a lifetime anymore. To face this challenge, the educational programmes should be diversified to include futures studies from an earlier learning stage, in order to provide pupils and students with the necessary tools to anticipate the future and choose a learning path that fulfils their development needs. In that way, the requirement to anticipate possible changes could provide the ability to adapt quickly and overcome the potential drawbacks determined by a lack of skills and competences of the future workforce. One objective of future studies could be also to produce super-forecasters for sensitive areas such as security and defence. Future studies facilitate the examination of possible developments in the future based on current knowledge and logical reasoning, allowing the study of postulating possible, probable and preferable futures. Even though the future remains unpredictable, there are some potential developments of the present reality or alternatives of the future that can be thought of. Therefore, as far as the future is unpredictable, only some potential developments of the present reality or alternatives of the future can be thought of. Apparently, there are few options at hand: do nothing, try to prepare for the future or try to shape the future actively.Forecasting and foresight are powerful tolls in the panoply of futures studies and, even though initially these concepts were used equivalently, there is a real difference between them. This paper will explain some of these differences along with an example of a good forecasting strategy, in an attempt to stimulate how to think about the future and then act decisively to create it.
Our Call for Papers focused on breaking established patterns and models and showcasing management innovation in a world in which Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA) reign. VUCA is both an outcome of disruptive innovation and a driver of it; and frequently VUCA is used as an excuse to avoid planning and action. While research has pursued the four elements independently, interaction and integration have been lacking. This article introduces three papers and offers 15 challenges as well as implicit and explicit recommendations to manage in the unpredictable and challenging VUCA world.
The purpose of the study is to investigate and elaborate the dynamic capabilities needed to manage disruptive busi-ness. This paper is a conceptual paper. Firstly, authors present key concept of technological disruption, which is highly relevant for modern corporate foresight. Nowadays, in the market conditions of corporate foresight, VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) approach has a significant role. Secondly, the rigor of this pa-per is to combine scientific discussion of technological disruption with the VUCA approach and dynamic capabili-ties of smart disruptor. The special focus of this article is the challenges of orchestration of dynamic capabilities in the special conditions of VUCA business environment and disruptive competition. The method/design of this study is a conceptual paper. The results: We evaluate the role of competence gaps identification inside a firm: The technol-ogy gaps, market gaps and business model gaps in modern business leadership. Our principal conclusion is to pre-sent tools to manage the dynamic capabilities in the VUCA and in the disruptive business environment. Further, we will present the pleminary definition of the smart disruptor.
Purpose
Under current market conditions of corporate foresight, turbulence is a key element of the business landscape. Turbulence can be summarised using the trendy managerial acronym ‘VUCA’: Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. This paper combines, for the first time, scientific discussion of technological disruption with the VUCA approach. Gart-ner Hype Cycle is used as a case example of technological turbulence and “vucability”. .
Design/methodology/approach
Firstly, authors present key concepts of technological disruption and radical innovation. Both these concepts are highly relevant for modern corporate foresight. Secondly, authors discuss key elements of current technological transformation and summarise it to create a bigger picture. Thirdly, authors link this discussion to the VUCA approach. Fourthly, au-thors present the new corporate foresight framework, which is highly relevant for corpo-rations and takes current technological transformation more seriously than previous pro-posals, which expect more stable business and a technological landscape.
Findings
Key issues in modern VUCA management are agility (response to volatility), information and knowledge management (response to uncertainty), restructuring (response to com-plexity) and experimentation (response to ambiguity). Useful foresight tools are: challeng-ing tools, decision making tools, aligning tools, learning tools and the ability to combine these management tools in the practices of corporate foresight and management systems. The VUCA approach is a key solution concept to technological disruption.
Practical implications
Authors present the new corporate foresight framework and management tool based on foresight, which help leaders to manage volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity - especially under the conditions of hyper-competition and technological disruption.
Originality/value
Corporate leaders should reinvent the strategic planning framework and adjust it to the VUCA conditions and simply be more strategic. Traps and typical failures of foresight are: (1) adopting it too early, (2) giving up too soon, (3) adapting too late, and (4) hang-ing on too long. In particular, technological transformation with disruptive technologies is changing and challenging many basic assumptions of business management and strategic planning. Our comparative analysis with Gartner Hype Cycle (fast technological changes from 2008-2016) verifies this important aspect of technological disruption.
Uncertainty is one of the most important features of many areas of social and economic life, especially in the forward-looking context. On the one hand, the degree of uncertainty is associated with the objective essence of randomness of the phenomenon, and on the other, with the subjective perspective of a man. Future-oriented perception of human activities is laden with an incomplete specificity of the analysed phenomena, their volatility, and lack of continuity. A man is unable to determine, with complete certainty, the further course of these phenomena. According to the author of this article, in order to significantly reduce the uncertainty while making strategic decisions in a complex environment, we should focus our actions on the future through systemic research of foresight. This article attempts to answer the following research questions: 1) What is the relationship between foresight studies in the system perspective to studies of the uncertainty? 2) What classes of foresight methods enable the research of uncertainty in the process of system inquiry of the future? This study conducted deductive reasoning based on the results of the analysis methods and criticism of literature.
A highly uncertain future due to changes in climate, technology and socio-economics has led to the realisation that identification of “best-guess” future conditions might no longer be appropriate. Instead, multiple plausible futures need to be considered, which requires (i) uncertainties to be described with the aid of scenarios that represent coherent future pathways based on different sets of assumptions, (ii) system performance to be represented by metrics that measure insensitivity (i.e. robustness) to changes in future conditions, and (iii) adaptive strategies to be considered alongside their more commonly used static counterparts. However, while these factors have been considered in isolation previously, there has been a lack of discussion of the way they are connected. In order to address this shortcoming, this paper presents a multidisciplinary perspective on how the above factors fit together to facilitate the development of strategies that are best suited to dealing with a deeply uncertain future.
Foresight is a well-known and widely used methodology for the creation of medium and long-term visions of technological, economic and social development. The need for evaluating foresight projects is unquestionable, but it is still a scarce phenomenon. The interests of the authors of the paper are focused mainly on foresight impact as one of the principal aspects of foresight evaluation, although they are aware of numerous objectives and aspects of foresight evaluation. The authors show the outcomes of case study analyses of selected evaluations conducted with regard to national and transnational foresight projects. Furthermore, current attempts to create systemic foresight evaluation frameworks are presented. They comprise general evaluation frameworks meant for the evaluation of different aspects of foresight projects execution, with respect to the process and results, including foresight impact as one of evaluated aspects as well as frameworks devoted strictly to the foresight impact evaluation. Scientific work on foresight evaluation models is still in progress and the authors of the paper indicate the current stage of models’ development.
Many foresight studies concentrate on technological foresight and its impact at the organizational level. However, often, these studies overlook the soft factor of employee competences which is critical to adopting technological and organizational changes and to developing the necessary innovation capabilities. This study investigates the theoretical and methodological underdeveloped relationship between technological innovation and social initiated change and the impact on individual competences in a dynamic sector. The setting of our study is the turbulent creative industries as a whole, where creative and artistic expression merges with changing technological progress. In a scenario study we mainly conducted in 2010, we developed a scenario model for competences to combine individual competences with a scenario approach to investigate how competences are important to the sector shift or need to be en-hanced in the future. We use primary qualitative data from expert interviews and workshops and secondary data from industry reports to identify thirty-seven influence factors. An influence matrix calculation and a cluster analysis are used to project three different scenarios presenting how future developments of the creative industries will influence the competences needed for creative occupations. Now, five years later, we reflect the accuracy of the developed scenarios via a comparison of today’s situation with the situation in the scenarios. We discuss theoretical contributions for the foresight literature and practical implementations for the future of work in general, and in the particular for the creative industries case.
Organizational learning is one type of value created by scenarios and strategic foresight within companies. However, relatively little attention has been devoted to what and how individuals – such as managers and strategists – learn from participation within strategic scenario processes. The paper focuses on the learning effects of scenario processes on participants, using the Futures Literacy Hybrid Strategic Scenario (FL HSS) method. It presents an evaluative framework for capturing the learning and cognitive effects of using the imaginary future, and the learning benefits derived by participants in intensive scenario processes. The paper outlines how scenario activities change the capabilities of the individuals and organizational systems to understand the nature and role of the future for what they perceive and what they do. Cognition is the domain of the individual rather than the organization and, as a result, the micro processes through which individuals learn and challenge mental models appear to be antecedent resources to collective mental model changes within organizations. This suggests that companies should invest in pedagogically rich scenario processes that develop the capability of managers to sense changes. The learning generated by scenario processes can strengthen the ‘sensing’ dynamic capabilities of firms.
Universities play an important role in shaping the future of the world society in terms of sustainable development by generating new knowledge as well as contributing to the development of appropriate competencies and raising sustainability awareness. During the last years, many universities have undertaken activities for implementing Higher Education for Sustainable Development (HESD). Many have asked which key competencies are most relevant for sustainable development and hence should be developed in future-oriented higher education. Different approaches for the selection of sustainability key competencies have been developed, but there is little international agreement in the debate around the most important key competencies. Consequently, this paper asks which individual key competencies are crucial for understanding central challenges facing the world society and for facilitating its development towards a more sustainable future, and thus identifies those competencies which should be fostered through university teaching and learning. The empirical design of the study is related to a Delphi study in which ‘sustainability key competencies’ are defined by selected experts from Europe (Germany, Great Britain) and Latin America (Chile, Ecuador, Mexico). The results show that twelve key competencies crucial for sustainable development can be identified; the most relevant ones are those for systemic thinking, anticipatory thinking and critical thinking.
Purpose
This paper addresses a challenging topic, which in both academic and professional literatures has been widely discussed but mainly from one single angle – that is, how to select foresight methods. From that point of view researchers and consultants promote (even if unintentionally) the use of particular methods. Here the question of selection is raised from a different perspective: how are foresight methods selected?
Design/methodology/approach
The guiding “theory” is that a better understanding of the fundamental attributes of foresight methods and their linkages to the core phases of a foresight process, together with the identification of possible patterns in the selection of methods, will provide useful insights as to how the selection of methods is carried out.
Findings
So far the selection of foresight methods has been dominated by the intuition, insight, impulsiveness and – sometimes – inexperience or irresponsibility of practitioners and organisers. This paper reveals that the selection of foresight methods (even if not always coherent or systematic) is a multi‐factor process, and needs to be considered as such.
Practical implications
The results can be utilised by lecturers and students to describe and understand better the use of foresight methods, and by organisers of foresight (including practitioners) to better inform decisions during the design of (hopefully) more coherent methodological frameworks.
Originality/value
The paper combines practical concepts and frameworks (such as the Foresight Process and the Foresight Diamond) with innovative analyses to represent and visualise better the combination of methods in 886 case studies, for example introducing the Methods Combination Matrix (MCM) to examine the dynamics of a mix of methods.
This study addresses how foresight interventions can translate creativity into proactive behavior and, in this sense, foster anticipatory strategic management. We develop a theoretical model, linking creativity and proactivity with known discrete individual foresight cognitive styles, namely “Reactor”, “Tester”, “Adapter”, and “Framer”, but also add a new “Actor” dimension. The theoretical model is tested by analyzing quantitative data from 172 students attending two scenario-building workshops. Our SEM model allows us to formulate three conclusions. First, creativity is not directly linked to proactivity without considering individual foresight cognitive styles. Second, we confirm the presence of four components of foresight as discrete foresight cognitive styles but also demonstrate the importance of a fifth component, the “Actor”. Third, it is only through the “Tester”, “Adapter”, and “Actor” components that creative energy most significantly aids proactivity. This means that creativity most significantly aids proactivity when individuals are either able to experiment with alternative courses of action or change the conditions for how their respective futures may unfold. We contribute to the foresight literature by demonstrating how foresight, as a process of intervention, can foster discrete foresight cognitive styles at the individual level and moderate relationships between creativity and proactivity.
https://jfsdigital.org/future-in-the-present-participatory-futures-research-methods-in-economic-higher-education-the-development-of-future-competencies/
Purpose
This paper introduces a generic structure for a futures workshop, developed especially to be used in brief practically oriented foresight projects. Based on experiences of tens of dozens of workshops where this method has been used, this paper aims to inform and educate practitioners of futures studies on the method and discuss its characteristics.
Design/methodology/approach
The design of the ACTVOD workshop method was influenced by the need to have a futures workshop design that would encourage creativity and allow for the hosting of a futures workshop in a rather short amount of time. ACTVOD takes advantage from several theoretical insights and methods within futures studies. It combines elements from heuristic problem-solving, scenario workshops (focus on finding action plans towards desired future) and soft systems methodology.
Findings
ACTVOD is a rather easy and time-efficient way of producing and collecting good-quality insights on the future and bringing those insights to a practical level. Major challenges using it relate to the transition between workshop stages and on reporting, which relies heavily on participants' activity.
Originality/value
This is the first time the characteristics of the ACTVOD workshop method are thoroughly introduced in an academic journal. Learning of the method would be useful for practitioners of participatory futures studies methods, especially those who are frequently invited to facilitate short workshops for varying audiences.
This article elaborates on the competencies, often referred to as 21st century competencies, that are needed to be able to live in and contribute to our current (and future) society. We begin by describing, analysing and reflecting on international frameworks describing 21st century competencies, giving special attention to digital literacy as one of the core competencies for the 21st century. This is followed by an analysis of the learning approaches that are considered appropriate for acquiring 21st century competencies, and the specific role of technology in these learning processes. Despite some consensus about what 21st century competencies are and how they can be acquired, results from international studies indicate that teaching strategies for 21st century competencies are often not well implemented in actual educational practice. The reasons for this include a lack of integration of 21st century competencies in curriculum and assessment, insufficient preparation of teachers and the absence of any systematic attention for strategies to adopt at scale innovative teaching and learning practices. The article concludes with a range of specific recommendations for the implementation of 21st century competencies.
The purpose of this study was to identify the competencies hospitality unit leaders perceived to be most critical for career development, and to determine whether perceptions of the importance of various skills and attributes/abilities varied when leaders worked in different organizational contexts. Leaders from two hospitality segments, land-based hotels and ocean-based cruise ships, participated in the study. Findings indicated notable differences between the two samples on a number of items.A background of relevant research on hospitality leadership competencies is provided. Contextual variables are examined as they contribute to better understanding differences in perceived competency requirements between land-based and ship-based leaders. Four contextual dimensions (staff composition, task requirements, organizational structure, and the external environment) are explored. A conceptual model is presented that illustrates the posited influence of organizational context on hotel and ship leadership competencies as they impact both selection processes and development activities.Results of this opinion-based study suggest that, while senior hotel and ship practitioners share a need for certain core competencies (positive attitude and effective listening), organizational context likely influences the relative importance of specific skills and attributes/abilities required for effective leadership in each industry segment. Findings support previous research and have implications for educators, practitioners, and researchers.
The definitions of forecasting vary to a certain extent, but they all have the view into the future in common. The future is unknown, but the broad, general directions can be guessed at and reasonably dealt with. Foresight goes further than forecasting, including aspects of networking and the preparation of decisions concerning the future. This is one reason why, in the 1990s, when foresight focused attention on a national scale in many countries, the wording also changed from forecasting to foresight. Foresight not only looks into the future by using all instruments of futures research, but includes utilizing implementations for the present. What does a result of a futures study mean for the present? Foresight is not planning, but foresight results provide 'information' about the future and are therefore one step in the planning and preparation of decisions. In this paper, some of the differences are described in a straightforward manner and demonstrated in the light of the German foresight process 'Futur'. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
EntreComp: The Entrepreneurship Competence Framework. Publication Office of the European Union
- M Bacigalupo
- P Kampylis
- Y Punie
- G Van Den Brande
Bacigalupo, M., Kampylis, P., Punie, Y., & Van den Brande, G. (2016). EntreComp: The Entrepreneurship Competence Framework. Publication Office of the European Union. EUR 27939 EN.
DOI: 10.2791/593884
The Future of Skills: Employment in 2030. Pearson and Nesta. ences and Humanities
- H Bakhshi
- J Downing
- M Osborne
- P Schneider
Bakhshi, H., Downing, J., Osborne, M., & Schneider, P. (2017). The Future of Skills: Employment in
2030. Pearson and Nesta.
ences and Humanities?. In: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, & R.
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (pp. 41-52). Springer. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-68811-2_4
M.
Presenting a Framework for Foresight in Education
- N N Beni
Beni, N. N. (2018). Presenting a Framework for Foresight in Education. In: F. Uslu (Ed.). Proceedings of 5th International Conference on Education and Social Sciences (INTCESS 2018), Istanbul, Turkey, 1072-1078.
What a Difference A Word Makes: Understanding Threats to Performance in a VUCA World
- N Bennett
- G J Lemione
Bennett, N., & Lemione, G. J. (2014). What a Difference A Word Makes: Understanding Threats to
Performance in a VUCA World. Business Horizons, 57(3), 311-317.
DOI: 10.1016/j.bushor.2014.01.001
Role of Foresight Sessions in Professional Self-Development of Students
- N P Dedov
- E B Fantalova
- O I Vaganova
- A V Lapshova
- V A Kuznetsov
Dedov, N. P., Fantalova, E. B., Vaganova, O. I., Lapshova, A. V., & Kuznetsov, V. A. (2021). Role
of Foresight Sessions in Professional Self-Development of Students. Revista de la Universidad
, 12(35), 504-515. DOI: 10.46925//rdluz
-(2022).
Market? The Effect of G Sustainability
- O Habets
- J Stoffers
- B Van Der Heijden
- P Peters
Habets, O., Stoffers, J., Van der Heijden, B., & Peters, P. (2020).
Market? The Effect of G
Sustainability, 12(18), 7746. DOI: 10.3390/su12187746
Future of Work: Insights for 2021 and Beyond
- K Klowden
- Q Lim
Klowden, K., & Lim, Q. (2021). Future of Work: Insights for 2021 and Beyond. Milken Institute.
Replay Your Futures Labs for Exploring Undiscovered Pathways, Lukasiewicz Research Network Institute for Sustainable Technologies
- Radom
- A Kononiuk
- L Sacio-Trivelli
Kononiuk, A., & Rollnik-Sadowska, E. (Eds.) (2022). Replay Your Futures Labs for Exploring
Undiscovered Pathways, Lukasiewicz Research Network Institute for Sustainable Technologies, Radom.
Kononiuk, A., Sacio-Trivelli, L. (2021). Teaching Foresight and
Futures Literacy and Its Integration into University Curriculum. Foresight and STI Governance,
15(3), 105-121. DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2021.3.105.121
Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century. Taylor & Francis. A Case of the Industry 4.0. Foresight and STI Governance
- R Miller
Miller, R. (2018). Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century. Taylor & Francis.
A Case of the
Industry 4.0. Foresight and STI Governance, 14(4), 20-33.
DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2020.4.20.33
PARP Report. (2020). Rynek pracy, edukacja, kompetencje.
. PARP.
LifeComp: The European Framework for Personal, Social and Learning to Learn Key Competence. Publications Office of the European Union
- A Sala
- Y Punie
- V Garkov
- M Cabrera Giraldez
Sala, A., Punie, Y., Garkov, V., & Cabrera Giraldez, M. (2020). LifeComp: The European Framework for Personal, Social and Learning to Learn Key Competence. Publications Office of the
European Union. DOI: 10.2760/922681, JRC120911
Key Competences for Lifelong Learning in the European Schools
- Schola Europaea
Schola Europaea. (2018). Key Competences for Lifelong Learning in the European Schools. Office
of the Secretary-General.
Integration of Foresight into Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Planning. 31st International-Business--Information-Management-Association Conference: Innovation Management and Education Excellence through Vision 2020, I-XI
- E V Shevchenko
- V M Pomogaev
- V F Stukach
- V P Tretiak
Shevchenko, E. V., Pomogaev, V. M., Stukach, V. F., & Tretiak, V. P. (2018). Integration of Foresight into Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Planning. 31st International-Business--Information-Management-Association Conference: Innovation Management and Education
Excellence through Vision 2020, I-XI, 3264-3277. https://ibima.org/
Silva, M. (2015). A Systematic Review of Foresight in Project Management Literature, Conference
on ENTERprise Information Systems (CENTERIS). International Conference on Project MANagement (ProjMAN) / International Conference on Health and Social Care Information Systems
and Technologies (HCist), 64, 792-799.
Reimagining our Futures Together. A New Social Contract for Education (Report from the International Commission on the Futures of Education)
UNESCO. (2021). Reimagining our Futures Together. A New Social Contract for Education (Report
from the International Commission on the Futures of Education). United Nations Educational,
Scientific and Cultural Organization.
- O I Vaganova
- A A Korostelev
- Z V Smirnova
- N S Abramova
- S N Dolmatov
Vaganova, O. I., Korostelev, A. A., Smirnova, Z. V., Abramova, N. S., & Dolmatov, S. N. (2019).
International
Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering, 8(8), 630-634.
Developing Futures Literacy as a Tool to Navigate an Uncertain World
- M Wilenius
- L Pouru
Wilenius, M., & Pouru, L. (2020). Developing Futures Literacy as a Tool to Navigate an Uncertain World. In: Humanistic Futures of Learning, Perspectives from UNESCO Chairs and
UNITWIN Networks, UNESCO.