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Conceptual Cycles in Urban Development
Management
Are we getting better and better – or just going round in circles?
Implications for Capacity Building and Research
Forbes Davidson
1
N-Aerus conference, Venice 1999
2
Synopsis
Concepts are continuously being developed in the field of urban development
management, and concepts are also being discarded. But are we sure that we know
what we are taking on so enthusiastically, and do we too readily discard approaches
years before we really know their implications?
The paper presents a slightly tongue in cheek classification of five stages of the cycle
of key concepts that are used in urban development management. The paper looks
at three examples in practise. Sites and Services is reviewed in terms of its
development in the 70s and subsequent decline. An example from that period,
Ismailia in Egypt is examined. Integration has been heavily promoted as an answer
to piecemeal uncoordinated approaches, but is not so simple in practise.
Participation in planning and development is reviewed from its promotion in the early
70s, renewed high profile in recent years and questions whether we are approaching
another decline.
The implications of this view are examined for capacity building, especially in terms
of the critical role of research to provide a sound foundation. A plea is made for more
attention to long term studies of impact of approaches, given that cities are not
normally only for the short term.
Background
“There’s nothing new under the sun.” “Let’s not re-invent the wheel” There are many
proverbs and sayings of the “we’ve been here before” type. But do we know where
we’ve been and have, we learned the lessons? We know what a wheel is, and what
it does, but can we say the same for concepts such as “Sites and Services” and
“Participation”?
“Innovative” and “cutting-edge” are attractive words. We like to be involved in what is
new and interesting. But are we examining carefully enough what has happened in
the past, and are we looking far enough back to be able to really learn the lessons of
the impact of interventions?
Cities, especially in developing countries are often fast growing, though government
interventions typically are rather slow to get moving. However, it may take 20 or
more years to get a realistic perspective of what works and what does not. But how
1
Forbes Davidson is with the Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies, Rotterdam, Netherlands
2
This text has been slightly updated from the original as the term “Hindsight” was later considered more appropriate
than the original “Hereafter.” The examples of concepts and their stages has not been updated. They would include
concepts such as resilience to climate change, smart cities and 15-minute cities. It is interesting to compare issues
after more than 20 years. Amended version made in 2023.
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many evaluation reports go back for this length of time? How many archives keep
relevant material this long?
At the same time, 20 years can be a short time in the life of a city, which may
measure its age in 100s of years, if not thousands. In this time cities can be born, die
and re-create themselves, sometimes several times over, as is the in the case of
Delhi.
Meanwhile, we are busy trying to understand the city and our interventions. The aim
primarily, is to make what we do more effective. We do this by transferring
experience either while it is fresh (and untested) via cutting edge descriptions of
practise, or somewhat later, via evaluation exercises, normally carried out during the
lifetime of a project or programme. Communication may take place in conferences,
via academic literature and via the teaching in schools of planning and development.
However, there are two major problems. First, the lessons taught in these fora are
illuminated very little by good longitudinal research. Second, most of the major
actors involved are not able, or perhaps not interested in, accessing this information.
Human beings have a limited capacity to absorb and use information. So, what do
we give them? News as to what the latest thinking is in globalisation or public private
partnerships, or sound information based on careful analysis of the impact of
development interventions? We have to be selective. It is not possible to cover
everything.
So, the challenges are two-fold. One is to know better what has happened. What
the implications of interventions are, and to know their value before ideas are
discarded. The second is to ensure that the lessons can get through to those who
can use them. This in itself is a particular challenge, as we are in a time where
increased potential access to information is often combined with decreasing time
available to absorb and use it.
The paper uses the idea of cycles of development ideas to emphasise that all that is
past is not just old but can have a direct relevance for current planning and action.
Conceptual cycles: the 5 H’s
The idea of cycles of development is not new. Economists have recognised waves
of economic development related to innovations in technology
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. Management
concepts have developed a very strong influence in recent years, as urban
development professionals read less of Lewis Mumford and more of Peter Drucker.
But if the technology trends are moving in ever shorter waves – from 50 years to now
in the order of 20 years, trends in influential management thinking are moving much
faster, fuelled by the lucrative market in management guru books. Look at recent
plans and the word “strategic” will thrust itself at you. “excellence” has perhaps had
its day and re-engineering has not lasted very well – but these are concepts lasting
only a few years. As urban management is influenced more by management
thinking, it is more vulnerable to fads.
Trends in roles and topics
New approaches require new ways of working and thus additional challenges for
building the necessary capacity. We are talking not only of doing the conventional
things better, but also of new roles requiring the developing of new knowledge, skills
and attitudes. To make this more concrete, it may be useful to look at the example of
urban planning. Here the focus of activity is moving from land use planning and
3
Economist Feb 20th, 1999 “Catch the wave”
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development control to performance orientated action and strategic planning. In
these approaches, there is much more emphasis on developing creative and
innovative approaches, and the development of partnerships with those who can
commit the necessary resources. Skills in co-operation, co-ordination and integration
are needed. Communication skills, interpersonal skills, negotiation skills become
critical. Attitudinal qualities such as positive thinking, creativity, pro-active working
and flexibility are increasingly seen as necessary. However, these are qualities
which are often alien to the culture in governmental organizations in many countries
and require considerable and sustained effort to introduce.
New ways of working also require institutional support and change in structure and
culture. It is vital that the new capacities of individuals are desired and supported by
their organizations. In other words, it is necessary that mayors, councillors and senior
executives want better performance, and support the changes in organization and
staff performance. It is also essential that changes are sensitive to local culture.
There should not be unthinking importation of management and development fads.
We must be careful not to assume that the nature of changes undertaken in United
States and Europe to facilitate new concepts of performance will be identical in Asia,
or elsewhere in the world. Hofstede (97) undertook a seminal study of culture within
offices of IBM, world-wide. His findings were that for identical jobs in different
countries, there were strong differences in the ideas of the degree of independence
of action that was appropriate. In Southern countries, in general, he describes a high
“power distance ratio” meaning basically that where in the North bosses may be seen
as coaches and enablers, in Southern countries is considered that the boss should
be the boss, be decisive. Consultation can be seen as a sign of weakness. This
distinction is important when we seek to transfer management ideas from North
America and northern Europe. In particular because we are also dealing with
transplant from private sector to public sector environments.
The same argument applies with development thinking. Ideas of what are the right
approaches for development are constantly changing. Ideas come into fashion,
receive a lot of attention for a while, then are neglected when there is disappointment
in lack of instant solutions, and only later are re-appraised from a longer time
perspective when they can be looked at rationally. This is fine for development
professionals and those attending international conferences (often from Central
Government), but it is another story at local government level where resources are
limited, and it is often a major challenge just to pay the salaries. At this level it is
important to be selective and strategic in the new tools and approaches introduced,
to ensure that they have the maximum chance of helping meet local priorities and not
act as a diversion.
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A small example of changing interest relating to the training of professionals. Figure
2 shows a graph of the percentage of books per year purchased with two important
subjects in their titles over the last 24 years at the Institute for Housing and Urban
Development Studies in Rotterdam, Netherlands, which specialises in training of mid
career professionals working in the field of urban development. It shows that site and
services had a lot of interest in the 70s and early eighties, but that interest has
waned. Participation, on the other hand has come back with a strong interest in
recent years, and is riding high, with few programmes not singing its praises. In the
Habitat Agenda of 1996, for example, “participation” is mentioned 26 times.
4
This diagram is updated from the original where “hereafter” was used instead of “hindsight”
Figure 1 Cycles of development concepts4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
participation
participation
Sites and services
1998
1975
Figure 2 % of books purchased per year for library at IHS Netherlands with titles
including participation and sites and services
Cycles of concepts
Hype High Hiatus Hangover Hindsight
idea is being
talked up a lot of
energy is
going into
development
still
prominent
but energy
going out
strong feeling
that it was not
such a good
idea
mature
reflection,
seen in
perspective
cycle of 20-30 years -varying per subject ?
Development
professional’s
views
Local
Government
view
but does it
make sense?
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Figure 1 and Figure 3 illustrate this concept with classification of a cycle of the 5 “H”s
of development thinking. The scorings are open to argument but will perhaps
stimulate some useful thinking.
. The “5 H’s” are Hype, High, Hiatus, Hangover and Hindsight. Hype is when a new
concept is being talked up. Professionals start using the new term, not always
knowing what it implies, no-one questions the concept, because at that stage there is
a dangerous combination of newness, fashion and lack of understanding. High
refers to the stage when a lot of energy is going into a concept. New projects and
programmes are developed, and everyone believes it is a great thing. Again, there is
little questioning at this stage. Hiatus implies that the concept is still at a high level of
use, and it becomes mainstream. However, the energy and interest are starting to
be lost. People with drive and energy have often moved onto new interests, to start
new cycles. Hangover is the stage when it appears that the concept is not the answer
to dreams and is perhaps not such a good idea after all. The rejection may not be on
sound grounds, but rather a combination of boredom and failure to meet over
optimistic expectations. Finally, Hindsight refers to the time in the future when we
can look back at the effectiveness of concepts and their implementation on the basis
of sound judgement and identify what is really sound and what is a mere fad.
Generalisation can, of course, be dangerous. There is a tremendous range of
variables influencing success. The global environment is rapidly changing, Countries
are different, cities are different within the countries, neighbourhoods differ and finally
the individuals concerned play a strong role. Yet we generalise when we adopt
concepts, and we generalise when we reject them.
Examples
Trends in interest
Sites and Services: Case of Ismailia
In 1986 Jan van der Linden wrote a review of the experience of Sites and Services,
suggesting that it should not be written off. It is thirteen years later. Have we learned
the lessons and are able to put the experience of the millions of dollars invested in
this approach to good use?
Ismailia in Egypt was the location of a major experiment in site and services starting
in 1977. The experience gained a lot of interest as it was a large-scale programme
and was mainly developed using local sources of finance and local staff. However,
despite a number of research projects, there has been no systematic evaluation of
the experience over the last 20 years. Recent studies have shown what has
happened – what has been invested – but the additional work to understand the
processes and the policy implications has still to be carried out after 20 years. This
time period has the potential of learning a lot, but research requires financing, and
this is something unrealistic to expect local government to do.
It is essential that lessons that are both reliable and useful in terms of their impact on
policy and practise are learnt so that the maximum benefit can be gained from the
considerable investment in resources that goes into innovative projects and
programmes. This applies equally whether a programme is community led,
government led or supported by international agencies. In the case of government or
international agencies, however, there is no excuse for not doing a thorough job.
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The next victims and returns
If the pattern has some basis in reality, then some concepts will be due to be
discredited. Participation in planning and implementation has become a standard
component in development programmes and an increasingly important part of
practice. However, “participation fatigue” is showing its face, with frustration
concerning the time and effort that can be involved and sometimes the slowness of
results. It would be very sad if the gains made in this area were thrown away in
future on the base of change in fashion. What is needed is sound research to
understand lessons of present practise so as to be able to improve it rather than
discard prematurely.
In a similar manner, and linked to participation, the fruits of decentralization have
often been slow to materialise or non – existent despite the general support and
rhetoric. This is often because the sustained effort needed to make it work has been
insufficient or absent.
Some concepts go out of favour, but others come back such as the importance of
good physical design development planning.
Implications for Capacity Building
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This diagram used the original term “Hereafter” which is not called “Hindsight” in this amended text. Concepts are
located according to the situation in 1999. Now concepts such as resilience to climate change, smart cities, 15 minute
cities would be much more prominent
Cycles of concepts: examples
Concept Hype High Hiatus Hangover Hereafter
idea is being
talked up a lot of
energy is
going into
development
still
prominent
but energy
going out
strong feeling
that it was not
such a good
idea
mature
reflection,
seen in
perspective
Master plans
Central Govt as key partner
Sites and services
Community participation
PPP
Decentralization
NGOs as key partners
Gender
Upgrading
participatory planning
Good governance
Capacity building
Knowledge management
Security and Social divisions
Agenda 21
Strategic networks
Urban poverty alleviation
cycle of 20-30 years -varying per subject ?
Figure 3 Examples of cycles for different development concepts5
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Cutting edge (or fashion?) vs the basics
Capacity building is to do with getting institutions and their staff to the stage that they
can be more effective in managing cities and their development. What is required
depends greatly on the sophistication of both the institutions and staff. Larger cities
normally have more, better educated staff, and can afford to experiment with new
approaches. In the case of the bulk of medium and smaller towns the need is to find
approaches that will work with the people and conditions that exist, rather than to
train staff in every new fad and fashion. This is not a plea for a very conservative
approach, but rather a challenge to make sure that the efforts that go into capacity
building are very well thought through so as to have as much chance as possible of
hitting the target.
Implications for Research
Research, and effective dissemination of its results has a major role to play in
facilitating that relevant lessons are learnt and that they are both accessible and
accessed. To achieve this the research requires to provide information that can
make a difference to the way that professionals think and act. They need inspiration
that success is possible or warning of major problems. Beyond this, they need to
understand critical aspects of process, design, organization, financing, relationships
that allow or stimulate the flexibility and innovation needed to be effective. This
means that research must try to dig deep enough to bring out this side of events, and
not be satisfied only with the facts of achievements or failure.
It also means that a long-time horizon must be taken in order to track the impact of
interventions over and extended time period. This means not only for the length of
the project or programme, but in cases where the experience is felt to be useful,
there should be a long-term review of the experience. A period of 10 to 20 years
would give valuable perspective. This is particularly important in the case of
programmes where there has been a major external input, as in these situations
there is normally the most distortion from normal resources and practise.
The practical use of research for politicians and local staff should be borne in mind
when designing, so as to ensure that what is produced is also practically usable.
This may need some materials to be written using journalistic approaches and may
also require a strong practise orientation. For example, if flexible regulations were
important in a case – this should be highlighted. The regulations themselves could
be reproduced.
The experience researched is not useful unless those involved are able to access it.
This requires very active thinking and promotion of methods to disseminate
materials. This can include newspapers and television at the level of getting people
interested, and professional and local government associations and NGOs at a more
technical level. Efforts are also required to ensure that the results get into the
education system, as it is important to influence also the rather conservative
university systems.
Conclusions
Some concepts move as cycles, some crash as waves. We have to be clear on the
real values of what we are doing and not only be influenced by fashion. The value
and culture derived foundation of many development concepts has to be able to be
adapted to be able to mesh with local values and culture (including institutional
culture).
The tolerance for change and new ideas at a local level, especially in developing and
transition countries, is very limited. Staff are often under considerable pressure, and
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the attraction of change becomes outweighed by the uncertainties. When resources
are limited, there is little room for experimentation.
It is essential that we have a sound idea of the essential nature of experiences so as
to better understand and communicate the real lessons. Part of this is also to
understand the impact of approaches over the long term. Research is essential in
reviewing this long-term experience objectively and extracting sound lessons.
Procedures, guidelines and capacity building efforts should then focus on what is
essential, and not be diverted by fads.
Communication and use of research require much more attention (and funding) than
normally given. This has to be integrated into programmes from the beginning in
order to maximise the potential impact.
References
Cohen, Michael, (1996) “The Hypothesis of Urban Convergence: Are cities in the
North and South Becoming More Alike in an Age of Globalization?”, Preparing for the
Urban Future, Global Pressures and Local Forces Woodrow Wilson Centre Press,
pp.25-39.
Davidson, Forbes, Michael Lindfield (1995) "To integrate or not to integrate"
"Developing a model for effective integration from international experience", Paper for
International Seminar on Integrated Infrastructure Development, Delhi, February
1995
Davidson, Forbes, (1996) “Planning for Performance: requirements for sustainable
development”, Habitat International Vol. 20 No.3 Elsevier UK, pp.445-462.
Davidson, Forbes, Nientied, Peter (guest eds) (1991) “Urban management in the
Third World: developing the capacity.”, Cities, vol.8, no.2 May 1991., pp.82-168.
Economist Feb 20th, 1999 “Catch the wave”
Note: discusses Schumpeter’s waves of technological innovation where major new
concepts and technologies have arisen in waves of progressively decreasing length.
Examples are steam and rail – a cycle of 55 years. Electronics and aviation are seen
to have had a 40-year wavelength. These relate more to dominant technologies than
to concepts, though there are, of course, links.
HMSO (1969) “People and Planning” Report of the Committee on Public Participation
in Planning.
Note: This report, also known as the Skeffington report after the chairman of the
committee was an official UK government report promoting greater participation in
the physical planning process.
Hofstede, Geert (1997) Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind, McGraw
Hill.
Note: analyses and discusses the differences in management culture in a wide
sample of countries.
Dice, Stephen R., (1995) Comments on the World Bank Experience, Indonesia’s
Urban Infrastructure Development Experience, Edited by Suselo, Hendropranoto,
John L Taylor, Emiel A. Wegelin UNCHS Nairobi, pp.186-204.
Linden J Van der, (1986) The sites and services approach reviewed, solution or
stop-gap to the Third World housing shortage Gower
Note: discusses the experience of sites and services some ten years after the main
period of interest.
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Peltenburg, M, Davidson, Forbes; Wakely, Pat and Teerlink, Hans (1996) Building
Capacity for Better Cities Institute for Housing and Urban Develoment Studies
Rotterdam.
So, Frank S., (1984) Strategic Planning: Reinventing the wheel Planning,(Journal
of the American Planning Association) February 1984 USA, pp.6.
World Bank (1998). Assessing Aid,
Available to download from Internet at
http://www.worldbank.org/research/aid/aidpub.htm
