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Methodological Conundrums in Spiral Of Silence Research
... Noelle-Neumann (1993) originally claimed universality for the silencing effect, as she emphasized that every individual suffered from fear of social isolation regardless of his or her cultural context. This triggered a considerable number of SOS studies in different cultural contexts in the early days of this research tradition (Matthes & Hayes, 2014;Rosenthal & Detenber, 2014). However, the mixed evidence from international studies has sown seeds of doubt regarding the universal character of the SOS. ...
... Notwithstanding the variety of international studies, sound empirical findings on the effect of cultural context on the SOS are rare. Due to a lack of comparative studies, especially those that use the same issues, the degree to which cultural context affects opinion formation and expressive behavior remains unclear (Matthes & Hayes, 2014). An individual-level test of the correlation between fear of social isolation and willingness to self-censor in nine countries (Matthes et al., 2012) showed that the basic mechanism stated in the theory worked for almost all countries. ...
... To investigate the impact of cultural context on SOS findings, we used a comparative experimental design. We focused on a common issue that showed similar characteristics in both countries to rule out issue-specific effects that have frequently blurred the findings of cross-cultural comparisons (Matthes & Hayes, 2014). We conducted comprehensive pilot tests on a range of issues in Korea (N = 115) and Germany (N = 103) using a set of variables that are particularly important in SOS research. ...
This paper presents a cross-cultural comparison in the field of spiral of silence online. We investigated the effects of user comments on public opinion perception and users’ opinions and willingness to speak out in two cultural settings. Previous research has indicated that spiral of silence effects are greater in collectivistic versus individualistic cultures. Our study was conducted in South Korea, which is collectivistic and Germany, which is individualistic. To test the conformity and silencing hypotheses, we conducted online experiments using comments on online news sites that were congruent or incongruent with personal opinion. Our findings supported the conformity hypothesis and the impact of context on public opinion perception and personal opinion, which were shaped by comments in both countries. In Germany, effects were confined to highly collectivistic users.
... The key and most prominent prediction of the theory refers to the public expression of opinions (Matthes & Hayes, 2014). When people sense that their own opinions are losing ground in public sentiment, they become less likely to publicly voice their views compared to those who feel their opinions are gaining ground with the majority of people. ...
... Still, Noelle-Neumann (1993) made a clear case that a content analysis of the mass media is necessary in order to measure the opinion climate and test the theory. Yet, hardly any studies have done that; and, if they did, they used aggregate data which fail to prove the assumed processes in methodologically convincing ways (Matthes & Hayes, 2014). ...
... The test observes if respondents would be willing to voice their views in this fictitious situation. The test has been criticized with respect to several methodological and conceptual aspects, most importantly for its hypothetical nature (Glynn, Hayes, & Shanahan, 1997;Matthes & Hayes, 2014). As a consequence, the majority of studies have simply correlated the perceived climate of opinion-either with respect to the present situation or with respect to the future-with people's willingness to express their views to friends, strangers, or people with opposing opinions (see Matthes & Hayes, 2014). ...
This entry introduces the theory of public opinion, usually referred to as the Spiral of Silence, originally proposed by Noelle-Neumann in 1974. After outlining the key propositions of the theory along with the main research findings, this paper discusses theoretical and methodological challenges of Spiral of Silence scholarship and enumerates the contributions of this theory to the field of mass communication.
... Numerous studies have been conducted to test spiral of silence theory (for a review, Glynn, Hayes, & Shanahan, 1997;Glynn, Shanahan, & Hayes, 2007;Matthes & Hayes, 2013;Scheufele & Moy, 2000). What we know from this large body of research is that the perception of majority public opinion has a small, albeit significant, impact on the willingness to express one's own opinion Glynn et al., 2007). ...
... Two distinct but intertwined predictions about the relationship between opinion climate and opinion expression can be derived (see Matthes & Hayes, 2013). First, it can be predicted that opinion climate and opinion expression are correlated; that is, individuals who feel they are in a minority at time point one are less likely to speak out at time point one compared with people who perceive themselves to be in a majority position. ...
... Moreover, one item used in this study was only partially invariant over time. Nevertheless, this latent variable approach has key advantages over the single-item measures that have been used in the majority of spiral of silence research (Matthes & Hayes, 2013). Furthermore, rather than including a huge number of additional predictors, we concentrated on the dynamic relationships of the key variables. ...
Time is of the utmost importance when designing studies to test the spiral of silence theory. The theory posits that individuals
who feel they are in the majority become more dominant and louder over time, while the minority camp becomes increasingly
silent. However, few studies have tested the dynamic nature of the theory. Therefore, the aims of this article are to revisit
the role of time in spiral of silence research and to demonstrate how dynamic processes can be modeled with three-wave panel
data. Using survey data on the topic of unemployment, the relationship between change in the opinion climate and change in
opinion expression is estimated with a latent growth model. Findings confirm the dynamic processes predicted by the theory.
... Firstly, the issue being discussed publicly should be controversial and possess a moral component. Secondly, individuals must perceive the likelihood of social isolation as a consequence of expressing an opinion that contradicts the perceived majority viewpoint (Gearhart & Zhang, 2018;Matthes & Hayes, 2014;Scheufle & Moy, 2000). As a result, the theory has been applied to various J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f controversial topics and contexts, such as gay bullying, women serving as judges (Gearhart & Zhang, 2013;Tso et al., 2022;Al-Kandari et al., 2021). ...
... In terms of online engagement, the social aspect of anonymity is particularly important. Perceiving a lack of identifiability means less accountability and minimal risk of facing social consequences as a user's online identity is not connected to their "real identity" (Quinn, 2016) Evaluating the degree of perceived identifiability when voicing opinions within a specific context is a crucial aspect of the SoS theory (Hayes & Matthes, 2014). Thus, separating themselves from their real identity might encourage people to discuss sensitive issues J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f in online spaces (Ho & McLeod, 2008). ...
This study examines how perceived differences in the affordances of social media platforms influence users' willingness to express opinions on a controversial issue, viz., systemic racism. Drawing on a U.S. nationally representative survey, our analysis suggests that fear of social isolation has a significant effect on Facebook but not on Twitter. Moreover, three platform affordances-network association, anonymity, and social presence-moderate the relationship on Facebook, while anonymity has a direct positive effect on Twitter. We argue that increased perceived network association and social presence and reduced perceived anonymity on Facebook result in higher levels of self-censorship. Twitter's interest-based ties, on the other hand, enhance anonymity and, with it, the willingness to speak on controversial topics.
... It seems plausible to assume that people's expression of political opinions also varies in accordance with the level of message persistence (Lane et al., 2019). Previous spiral of silence research suggested that situational factors, that is, characteristics of the communication setting (e.g., the size of the audience; Salmon & Oshagan, 1990) can influence people's willingness to voice their political views (Matthes & Hayes, 2014;Perry & Gonzenbach, 2000;Shamir, 1997). Noelle-Neumann (1994) herself pointed out the potential impact of situational factors and argued that silencing mechanisms may not be detectable in circumstances that are too private (e.g., talking to close friends) or too public (e.g., giving a TV interview). ...
... Still, participants had to state how they would react to such a situation. While behavioral intentions are the common measures in spiral of silence research (Matthes et al., 2018;Matthes & Hayes, 2014), they do not always fully reflect actual behavior (Hayes et al., 2001). Different behavioral manifestations when expressing oneself were approached by asking participants not only whether they would voice their opinion explicitly, but also use different forms of "speaking up" (such as "expressing uncertainty"; Hayes, 2007). ...
In light of the growing politicization of social media, the spiral of silence theory and its predictions on the conditions under which individuals express political opinions have gained increasing scholarly attention. This study contributes to this line of research by identifying the influence of a central characteristic of social media: message persistence. It was expected that high technical durability of political messages reduces users’ propensity to voice their opinion, moderating the silence effect. A pre-registered experiment ( N = 772) revealed a small-to-medium persistence effect in three out of four topical contexts. While perceived congruence with the opinion climate was not associated with the likelihood of opinion expression, the latter could be explained by a mental cost-benefit calculus that was shaped by message persistence. Theoretical implications are discussed referring to (a) a situational approach regarding silencing processes on social media and (b) its connection to a behavioral calculus of human communication.
... Based on their meta-analysis, Matthes et al. (2018) conclude that the correlation between a perceived online opinion climate and opinion expression online is related in the theoretically assumed manner, but they also state that "the role of online environments is far from understood" (p. 7; see also Matthes & Hayes, 2014). However, in sum, it appears reasonable to suggest that individuals who perceive their opinions as aligned with the majority within an online communication environment are more inclined to express those opinions. ...
... Metaanalyses of more than four decades of SoS research have found consistent support for this basic mechanism (see Glynn & Huge, 2014), but the size of the effects have remained small. Some scholars have attributed this to the lack of consistent and reliable measures to test basic SoS assumptions, and the neglect in accounting for variances based on individual personality differences (Matthes & Hayes, 2014). For example, certain people are psychologically more predisposed to be more fearful than others. ...
This study examines citizens’ willingness to publicly express support for a political party or candidate face-to-face and on Facebook during an election. Findings from a national survey showed that fear of social isolation (FSI) exhibited a negative indirect effect on public expression about the election through willingness to self-censor (WTSC) for both communication environments. The indirect effect through WTSC was contingent on perceived political disagreement within homophilous peer networks contributing to a hostile opinion climate. Moreover, in face-to-face interactions those with higher levels of FSI were less likely to express support in heterogeneous offline networks with high levels of disagreement, but were more likely to do so in homophilous networks that share similar political views. The study demonstrates the utility of combining a dispositional approach and friendship-based reference groups to the examination of key spiral of silence mechanisms at the individual level.
... Yet, a number of researchers (e.g., Hayes, 2007)— including the authors of this article—assert that this theory should hold for a more diverse range of public expression, including political participation. Can we not view signing petitions, participating in protests, and posting and sharing political materials on Facebook as forms of political expression that should all be affected by fear of isolation? 2 It also has been argued that we should shift scholarly focus from individuals' opinions regarding what they might do to what they have actually done (Hayes & Matthes, 2014; Scheufele, Shanahan, & Lee, 2001). Numerous findings show that the link between individuals' expected behavior and their actual behavior is tenuous at best (Bohner & Dickel, 2011). ...
The bulk of current literature on partisan media explores its various detrimental influences on the democratic sphere. This study highlights a possible positive outcome of partisan media consumption: enhanced political participation. It is hypothesized that consumption of congruent partisan media will tilt perceptions of opinion climate so that it is viewed as more supportive of one’s views, while consumption of incongruent partisan media is viewed as less supportive. Consequently, consumers of congruent partisan media will participate more, and vice versa. The hypotheses are tested using two panel studies: the first conducted during the 2012 U.S. presidential elections (N = 377) whereas the second, during the 2013 Israeli election (N = 340). In the Israeli case, survey data are supplemented with behavioral measures. All hypotheses are supported except the one regarding the effects of incongruent partisan media exposure. The results are discussed in light of the spiral of silence theory and the selective exposure hypothesis.
A key element of democracy is citizens exchanging viewpoints on political matters. Yet, we know little about how individuals respond to interpersonal political disagreement with peers: do they avoid it or yield, try to dominate others, or seek compromise? Based on two surveys with random assignment to different political statements, we study how individuals respond to interpersonal political disagreement on party choice and issue disagreement. The results from both surveys show that individuals are more likely to yield and dominate when the level of political disagreement is at a respectively low and high level. Citizens are more willing to seek compromise at low and moderate levels of disagreement, while avoiding is unrelated to the level of political disagreement.
Information systems such as social media strongly influence public opinion formation. Additionally, communication on the internet is shaped by individuals and organisations with various aims. This environment has given rise to phenomena such as manipulated content, fake news, and social bots. To examine the influence of manipulated opinions, we draw on the spiral of silence theory and complex adaptive systems. We translate empirical evidence of individual behaviour into an agent-based model and show that the model results in the emergence of a consensus on the collective level. In contrast to most previous approaches, this model explicitly represents interactions as a network. The most central actor in the network determines the final consensus 60–70% of the time. We then use the model to examine the influence of manipulative actors such as social bots on public opinion formation. The results indicate that, in a highly polarised setting, depending on their network position and the overall network density, bot participation by as little as 2–4% of a communication network can be sufficient to tip over the opinion climate in two out of three cases. These findings demonstrate a mechanism by which bots could shape the norms adopted by social media users.
The variety of media systems globally allows us to compare their outcomes, further testing the causal link between the media and political ideas. This chapter examines the ways different countries have designed and regulated their media systems. It traces differences between levels of political knowledge across countries to differences in how their respective media systems have been structured, particularly regarding the degree of commercialization and level of investment in public service media. These comparisons suggest best practices to make media systems better live up to the ideal role they should play in a democracy: providing a free, fair, and open marketplace of ideas.
To understand demand biases, we need to understand the human mind, how it evolved and how its evolutionary history affects political cognition. To understand our psychology, the second chapter begins with the emergence of hominids, through the point when our species branched from our hominid cousins, to our development of sedentary agriculture and large civilizations ten thousand years ago and beyond. This chapter describes the marks evolutionary history left on our psychology, including our capacity for morality and political cognition. Distinct but interlinked evolutionary systems—the biological and the informational or ideational—have produced everything that makes us human. This includes political ideologies: Gene-culture coevolution has produced predispositions—weak though they may be alone—that make some inclined toward left-wing ideas and others to right-wing ideas.
Using two-wave panel data from Hong Kong, this study examines the spiral of silence process on social media. It extends the theoretical framework by including both supporting and disagreeing opinion expression and examining not only expressive but also withdrawal behaviors on social media. This study also investigates the moderating roles of disagreement and publicness as two affordances on social media that influence the spiral of silence process. Results from the moderated mediation model with a panel lagged and autoregressive analysis suggest that fear of social isolation (FSI) has an indirect effect on discouraging disagreeing opinion expression but not supporting opinion expression and on encouraging withdrawal behaviors through enhancing willingness to self-censor (WTSC) on social media. This indirect effect is contingent on the levels of disagreement and publicness in one’s network. Higher levels of disagreement and publicness promote the spiral of silence. Implications of the findings are discussed.
Framing of crisis events is to a large extent contested, with multiple sources and conflicting messages. Theories of crisis communication acknowledge how people try to deal with these competing messages, and this article seeks to deepen the understanding the process of sense making of crisis events by connecting crisis communication to the spiral of silence theory. The spiral of silence theory, founded by Elisabeth Noelle-Neuman, proposes that people are less willing to express their opinions if they believe their beliefs are shared by a minority. This will lead to a spiral in which those who feel their opinions are popular are more inclined to express their opinions, and those who perceive their opinions are unpopular among the public become more silent. This study analyzed changes over time in the willingness to express opinions about the refugee crisis in Europe using a two-wave Web-panel survey (N = 1,185) in Sweden in 2015–2016. The focus is the impact of changing government policy, which moved from a generous refugee policy toward a more restrictive policy. Changes toward a more restrictive refugee policy did not seem to change the overall picture. Those supporting a more restrictive policy were still less inclined to speak their true opinions about the refugee crisis, even if the policy had changed in their favor. On the other hand, respondents supporting a more generous refugee policy seemed to become more cautious about expressing their opinions about the refugee crisis after the policy change, especially when talking to strangers.
The spiral of silence (SoS) framework elaborates the factors that determine whether individuals are willing to express their opinions in public. Although previous scholarship has examined differences in between face-to-face and computer-mediated communication, research studies have rarely tested how perceived affordances of the channel influence whether individuals express opinions or self-censor. In this study (N = 399), we examine several propositions of SoS within the context of discussing police discrimination on Facebook. To extend the theory’s relevance to social networking sites, we examined how users’ perceptions of network association, social presence, anonymity, and persistence related to opinion expression. Findings indicate support for some of the theory’s original tenets as well as the role of multiple perceived affordances in determining whether people will express an opinion to their online social network. We discuss the implications for measuring and understanding political expression and silencing on social media as well as offline.
The key assumption of spiral of silence theory is that opinion climate perceptions affect political opinion expression. We meta-analyzed the strength of this relationship and clarified the impact of theoretically relevant moderators. Sixty-six studies collectively including more than 27,000 participants were located. We observed a significant positive relationship (r = .10; Zr = .10) between opinion climate and opinion expression. This relationship was not weaker in online as compared with offline opinion expression environments. Also, the relationship did not vary by the number of the targets of opinion expression, the opinion of the targets, the opinion climate characteristics, and the design, measurement, and sample characteristics. The largest silencing effect (r = .34), however, was observed when participants talk to their family, friends, or neighbors about obtrusive issues. Overall, our findings suggest that the relationship between opinion climate perception and political opinion expression is stronger and more robust than previously thought.
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