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Climate change and food security nexus in Asia: A regional comparison

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... Dalam konteks kontemporari, isu sekuriti makanan muncul sebagai cabaran global yang menghantui negara-negara di seluruh dunia, termasuk Malaysia lantaran kesannya yang mendalam terhadap individu dan isi rumah (Pickson et al., 2023). Medina-Hernández et al. (2023) menjelaskan bahawa sekuriti makanan merupakan isu yang kritikal bagi isi rumah terutamanya di negara-negara miskin dan sedang membangun. ...
... Medina-Hernández et al. (2023) menjelaskan bahawa sekuriti makanan merupakan isu yang kritikal bagi isi rumah terutamanya di negara-negara miskin dan sedang membangun. Menurut Pickson et al. (2023), isu insekuriti makanan merupakan masalah yang membimbangkan terutamanya penduduk di negara-negara Asia dengan jumlah ketidakterjaminan makanan meningkat kepada 425 juta pada tahun 2021 berbanding 319.9 juta pada tahun 2015. ...
... Seterusnya mengganggu rantaian empat komponen utama sekuriti makanan. Dari kaca mata global masa kini, perubahan iklim misalnya merupakan cabaran yang paling membimbangkan kerana menjejaskan pengeluaran hasil pertanian, mempengaruhi kualiti makanan (Pickson et al., 2023), mengganggu kestabilan bekalan makanan dan mencipta jurang akses kepada makanan terutamanya bagi komuniti yang bergantung kepada sumber semula jadi (Rezvi et al., 2023). Kesan ini turut dirasai oleh komuniti Malaysia dan dilaporkan dalam mediamedia tempatan seperti gangguan terhadap bekalan telur akibat cuaca tidak menentu (Bernama, 2022), penurunan pengeluran minyak sawit akibat peningkatan suhu (Sinar Harian, 2023a) dan tumbesaran ayam yang terjejas akibat cuaca panas (Utusan, 2023). ...
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Domestic violence is a global issue and involves serious human rights violations. In Malaysia, this form of violence has various implications, notably an increase in food insecurity. This increase can occur either directly through the perpetrator's restriction of the victim's access to food, or indirectly, such as through physical abuse that impairs the victim's ability to earn income, thereby diminishing their food purchasing power. This phenomenon disproportionately affects women and children, who often endure multiple adverse impacts simultaneously. Aligning with this context, this study concentrates on analyzing the phenomenon of domestic violence and its impact on the security of its victims in Malaysia. Utilizing a qualitative approach, this research applies content analysis to instances of domestic violence reported in local media. The findings indicate a prevalent trend of domestic violence predominantly targeting victims (women and children) who exhibit a high dependency on their aggressors, thereby perpetuating a cycle of violence and food insecurity due to a lack of intervention to halt this cycle. Consequently, this study proposes a novel direction for addressing these pervasive issues within Malaysian families from the perspective of the mosque, positioning it as an institution that addresses local community issues.
... The findings also show that land under cereal production, population size, average precipitation, and fertilizer application are significant drivers of cereal production in SSA. The statistically significant impact of land under cereal production and population on cereal production supports the findings of Pickson et al. (2023) while the statistically significant impact of average precipitation and fertilizer application on cereal production also confirms the findings of (Ntiamoah, Li, Appiah-Otoo, et al., 2022) andChandio et al., (2021), respectively. Trade openness has a statistically significant negative impact on cereal production across all the models. ...
... Conversely, trade openness lowers cereal production in both low, medium, and high cerealproducing SSA countries while economic growth inhibits cereal production in both medium and high cereal-producing SSA countries. The findings of Pickson et al. (2023), are supported by our population size, and land under cereal production outcomes while the economic growth outcome refutes Pickson et al. (2023) study for Asia. (…) represents the standard errors. ...
... Conversely, trade openness lowers cereal production in both low, medium, and high cerealproducing SSA countries while economic growth inhibits cereal production in both medium and high cereal-producing SSA countries. The findings of Pickson et al. (2023), are supported by our population size, and land under cereal production outcomes while the economic growth outcome refutes Pickson et al. (2023) study for Asia. (…) represents the standard errors. ...
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Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is one of the least carbon emitter regions in the world; nevertheless, this region is not immune to the effects of climate change. While SSA has not yet fully recovered from the socioeconomic effects of the recent coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the crisis in Russia and Ukraine has further affected several SSA nations by driving up already high food prices even higher and limiting people’s access to food. To address these challenges, this study explored the moderating role of financial development (represented by domestic credit) in the climate change (represented by carbon dioxide emissions) and food security (represented by cereal production) nexus using a panel of 27 SSA countries and data ranging from 1990 to 2019. The study applied Lewbel’s two-stage least squares and the outcomes showed that carbon dioxide emissions hamper cereal production in SSA; however, financial development mitigates the negative effects of carbon dioxide emissions on cereal production. The study found that beyond the threshold value of 2.698 financial development will help SSA mitigate the negative impact of carbon dioxide emissions on cereal production. The study proposed the establishment of a proper financial reform to assist the banking industries expand their credit supply to farming communities in a flexible manner to support cereal production in SSA.
... This prediction is based on current demographic trends (O'Sullivan 2023). More than 20 % of the inhabitants in these places are regarded to be food insecure at present, although agriculture is a significant contributor to the economies of these areas and a major source of jobs (Pickson et al. 2023). It is believed that more than 75% of the world's poor live in rural areas, and the majority of these people have agriculture as their primary substantial source of income (Headey and Hirvonen 2023). ...
... The findings of a survey research demonstrate that the effects of climatic factors on food production vary greatly among Asian nations. The findings were strong and indicated that increasing food production and security in Asia will require significant investments in research initiatives, agricultural extension and better irrigation systems that make use of satellite data (Pickson et al. 2023). In international discussions within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), agriculture in developing nations has gained more attention for both adaptation to climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. ...
Article
Agriculture plays an important part in the overall growth and development of a nation. Concerns about agriculture continue to be a recalcitrant obstacle in the path of upward movement. Although agricultural yields are increased, however, low-and middle-income countries still have difficulty in producing all of the required foods with the current state of agricultural technology. Smart agriculture is becoming increasingly important to the farmers as a means of ensuring optimal field growth and higher crop yield. This systematic study analysed and briefly explained the effects of using smart agriculture techniques (SATs) from a variety of countries, including China, the United States of America, Australia, India, the Philippine Islands, South Africa, Pakistan and Iran, among others. Increased climatic change resulting in abiotic stress and other harmful effects on plants have resulted in decreased productivity under traditional agricultural practices. Stats from the literature have shown that the launching of SATs has resulted in a significant increase in cotton-wheat and rice-wheat crop yields, resultantly increased incomes of the farmers. Application of SATs, including satellite remote sensing, drones, machine learning and image processing, monitoring , wireless sensor networks, IoT-based robotics, precision agriculture and agroforestry could be extremely useful in developing intelligent agricultural systems in underdeveloped and developing countries, with improved plant growth, high crop yield and ensuring food security. These technologies could help farmers by storing additional water, spraying pesticides with drones, practicing precision agriculture and employing sensors for assessing different environmental parameters. By making efficient use of these technologies, countries could be able to increase the yield of their crops, which, in turn, will contribute to the reduction of poverty and the elimination of food insecurity.
... Similarly, higher temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns are additional crucial factors exacerbating global food security by deteriorating food productivity (Agovino et al. 2019;Pickson et al. 2023). According to the latest assessment by Lindsey and Dahlman (2021), global temperatures have been consistently rising at 0.18°C per decade since 2000. ...
... Conversely, rainfall has a positive impact, with a 1% increase leading to a 0.52% rise in crop production. Pickson et al. (2023) discovered a positive and significant trend of annual temperature in food production. Nevertheless, as they conducted a cross-country analysis, they found varied trends in annual rainfall. ...
... Around the world, soil salinization affects about 6% of the cultivated area and continues to add 1% to 2% of land deterioration per year, resulting in large losses in staple grain crop yields [1]. This creates uncertainty and conditions of food insecurity, urging researchers to improve the design of agricultural systems and adapt agricultural practices and varieties to the new reality to enhance resilience to climate change [2][3][4][5]. Researchers suggest that crop adaptation to the new environmental conditions should be based on agroecology, reconnecting local production with food consumption through the recovery of locally produced products [6] and promoting the use of legumes for maintaining the sustainability of agricultural systems [7]. ...
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One of the main abiotic factors affecting agricultural productivity in semi-arid regions is salinity. Seed priming is a frequently used method to enhance plant growth under saline environments. The aim of this work was to demonstrate the differences in eight agronomical characteristics of two grass pea varieties under two salinity regimes (80 and 160 mM NaCl) when pre-exposed to seed priming (hydropriming, biopriming with Bacillus subtilis and their combination). The two varieties responded well to the priming treatments, with more beneficial effects monitored for the local variety. Evaluating the root characteristics that are most affected by stress, it was found that, at 80 mM NaCl, the combination of biopriming and hydropriming increased the fresh root weight by 36.8% and root length by 70% in the commercial variety, and by 124% and 47%, in the local variety, respectively. At 160 mM NaCl, biopriming increased the fresh root weight by 40.3% and root length by 50.3% in the commercial variety, while in the local variety, the combination of biopriming and hydropriming increased the fresh root weight by 124% and root length by 47%, respectively. Overall, biopriming and the combination of biopriming and hydropriming significantly enhanced plant growth characteristics of the two grass pea genotypes.
... Rice agroecosystems worldwide, especially in developing countries, are experiencing several environmental extremes (e.g., drought, cold, heat, salinity, acidic soils, nutrient toxicity, and deficiencies, etc.) also known as abiotic stresses resulting in significant yield loss (Kar & Panda, 2020;Lamaoui et al., 2018;Sahebi et al., 2018). Climate change has severely affected the food security of rice-based countries, such as South Asia and South-East Asian countries (Pickson et al., 2023). It leads to a reduction in rice yields, with predictions indicating a decrease ranging from 15.2 to 17.2% due to climate change scenarios (Saud et al., 2022). ...
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The lower Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand, a major rice-producing area, is grappling with increased water scarcity alongside more frequent floods and droughts, necessitating effective adaptation strategies to sustain agricultural productivity. This study assesses the impacts of climate change on rice yield and irrigation water use, using the DSSAT-CERES-Rice model. Based on these findings, potential genotype- and management-based adaptation strategies were recommended. The model was calibrated and evaluated using the data from field experiments conducted at the Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand during 2017–2018 and 2021–2022. The grain yield and irrigation water use between baseline (2010–2022) and future climate periods (early-century: 2023–2040, mid-century: 2041–2070, and late-century: 2071–2100) were compared. Future climate projections were based on five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 project under three scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The model calibration and evaluation demonstrated very good performance statistics, with a d-index of 0.85 during both calibration and evaluation. The model simulations indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures in the lower CPRB are projected to increase by ~ 2 °C and ~ 4 °C in the late century under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. Consequently, rice yields are projected to decline by up to 33%, and irrigation water usage to increase by 53% under SSP585 by the late century. Based on the findings, the following major genotype- and management-based adaptation strategies are recommended: (1) Developing heat-tolerant rice cultivars to mitigate yield losses under future climate scenarios, (2) Developing rice cultivars with extended grain-filling duration to enhance both irrigation water use and yield, (3) Shifting the planting date 1–2 weeks earlier (from baseline planting date of 20 July), and shifting fertilizer application date 1–2 weeks earlier (from baseline fertilizer application date of 20 September) for the panicle initiation stage to improve yield, and (4) Optimizing irrigation thresholds (remaining soil water at which to irrigate) to reduce irrigation water use without compromising yield. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of genotype improvement and adaptive management practices in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on rice production in the lower CPRB.
... Xiang and Solaymani (2022) revealed the inverse relationship between climatic variables including temperature and cereal production in Malaysia. Pickson et al. (2023) showed the negative and positive effects of temperature and rainfall, respectively, on food security in Asian countries. Li (2023) indicated a positive effect of temperature and vice versa a negative impact of rainfall and wind speed on rice production. ...
Article
The livestock production sector plays a crucial role in food security and income generation and has an undeniable relationship with the environment. Like other agricultural sectors, it faces the significant challenge of climate change. However, the attention given to this issue has not been satisfactory given its importance. Thus, the primary aim of the current research is to assess the impact of temperature change, precipitation, CH4 emissions, gross fixed capital, and land use on the livestock production index as an indicator of food security in Iran. The modeling uses data from 1990 to 2020, employing the NARDL approach and Granger causality. The results show that a 1% increase in temperature can lead to an 8.06% decrease in livestock production (food security), while a 1% decline in temperature results in a 3.85% surge in livestock production. Precipitation has a direct relationship with food security; a 1% rise and drop in rainfall lead to an increase and reduction in livestock production by 0.8% and 1.02%, respectively. A 1% increase in gross fixed capital boosts food security by 0.47%, while a 1% decrease leads to a 2.32% reduction. A statistically insignificant relationship is seen between the positive CH4 shock and food security in the long run. However, the negative shock of this variable positively influences food security by 7.5%. Negative changes in land use will reduce livestock production. The Granger causality test proves a two-way causal relationship between CH4 emissions and livestock production. A unidirectional causality is discovered from production to temperature and from land use to livestock production. To mitigate the impact of global warming on livestock production, strategic investments in infrastructure, livestock micro insurance, and informing producers about the consequences of climate change and solutions for addressing this phenomenon can be considered effective policies.
... However, while offering valuable insights into agricultural systems in Kazakhstan, the study may lack generalizability to other regions with different climatic and socio-economic conditions. Pickson et al. (2023) investigated the climate change and food security nexus in Asia, providing a regional comparison. This study analyzed the interplay between climate variability and food security across various Asian countries, offering a broader perspective on the challenges and adaptation strategies in the region. ...
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Climate change has typically been a contentious topic in South Sudan with regard to whether it is the sole cause of food unavailability to many people or whether food insecurity is due to the Country’s internal communal conflicts. This study aimed to analyze how climate variability and change affect household food security and among smallholder farmers in South Sudan. Data used for analysis of this study was obtained from farming households surveys using a structured questionnaires and Focus Group Discussions. Data was collected from 200 randomly selected households. Interviews were also conducted among key purposively selected persons. Secondary data was gotten from public libraries and electronic reservoirs and Government institutions. Focus Group Discussions were conducted as part of the assessment using both open and close ended questions. Quantitative and qualitative data were statistically analyzed using descriptive statistics based on percentage / frequency of responses on the study matters. The Microsoft Excel spread sheet Version 365 was used to process the data as per the study objectives. On overall food production levels amidst climate variability and change, 60.5 % of the household presented a larger level of uncertainty about food security status meaning that only 39.5% were food secure in the area. 74.5 % (n=149) could not eat balanced meals, 69 % (n=138) households were anxious that they would run out of food supply, 61.5 % (n=123) ate limited variety of food. This indicates that tremendous household numbers were mildly food insecure. 72 % (n=144) had diminished size of meal and 70 % (n=140) reported that they had fewer meals than they would need. Small-scale producers are more susceptible to harsh weather conditions like floods and droughts. These occurrences have resulted in farm crop declines, livestock losses, and infrastructural damage, which limits food output and farmers' income and asset base leading to unstable food availability and access. This in turn has affected households’ ability to grow their own food or procure available food. In South Sudan, a study investigating how smallholder farmers adapt to changing weather patterns revealed a diverse range of resourceful strategies. The country experiences a single annual rainy season from April to November, with rainfall amounts varying between 700 and 1,300 millimeters. July typically sees the most rain, while June receives the least. October and December mark the transition towards drier seasons. It was asserted that the prevalences of droughts and floods in South Sudan are the main climate change manifestations adversely affecting smallholder farming households. The mentioned occurrences exacerbate the existing vulnerabilities in the study area. Majority of farming households (54%) in the study area adopted farming of drought tolerant crops. The non-adoption of use of agricultural greenhouses and low level of irrigation could be due to the high initial cost required to purchase, install and maintain irrigation systems and greenhouse structures. The area was seen to practice autonomous adaptation practices which were centered around climate risk management and productivity enhancement triggered by ecological and welfare changes. The study recommends the growth of cereals that are tolerant to water stress in areas in which lack of rainfall commonly affects populations in addition to boosting certain native crops that can withstand drought. It was also recommended that National leadership continues to perform a prominent task in providing early warnings in advance with regard to expected subsequent climate unpredictability.
... Xiang and Solaymani (2022) revealed the inverse relationship between climatic variables including temperature and cereal production in Malaysia. Pickson et al. (2023) showed the negative and positive effects of temperature and rainfall, respectively, on food security in Asian countries. Li (2023) indicated a positive effect of temperature and vice versa a negative impact of rainfall and wind speed on rice production. ...
... It has already had a significant impact on people's health and food security (FS), particularly in Asian and African nations. Previous research has shown that CC will continue to affect people and economies around the world (Anh et al., 2023;Pickson et al., 2023). The CC will increase the frequency, severity, duration, and timing of many weather-related-extreme events (Gul et al., 2022a;Koondhar et al., 2020). ...
... The Secretary-General of the United Nations addressed alarming risks regarding the impact of climate change on peace and security and considered that risk a strategic priority (United Nations Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, 2022). Climate change directly impacts water availability and the increase of evapotranspiration, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions like Iraq and the Middle East region, where the lack of irrigation will reduce the significant crop yield (El-Rawy et al., 2023), which will rise critical concerns on agriculture production and food security nexus (Pickson et al., 2023). However, the burden of climate change's impact on the socioeconomic sector is another debate that would link to water and food insecurity by deteriorating the economic dynamics and creating socio-political and sociocultural challenges hindering development planning (Shapland, 2023;Seyuba et al., 2023). ...
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The effects of climate change are recognized globally. This study hypothesizes that climate change impacts are a complex system that creates a ripple effect on water security, food security, and economic security. Ultimately, those domains simultaneously exacerbate climate change effects and produce national security concerns. The study’s framework uses a transdisciplinary team’s quantitative and qualitative approach to evaluate the challenges and possible solutions to climate change security on the Water–Food–Socioeconomic Nexus. Iraq has been taken as a case study highlighting the deficits in management and governance. The dynamic of the ripple effect shows the interventions for each sector’s water-food�socioeconomic and security that collectively impact upon each other over time. The radical shift in the political infrastructure after 2003 from a centralized to a decentralized one without proper preparation is one of the root causes of the governance and management anarchy. About 228 state and non-state actors are involved in decision-making, leaving it fragile and unsustainable. Only 1% of the national budget is allocated to both the Ministry of Water Resources and the Ministry of Agriculture, which leaves no capacity to mitigate the risk of climate change impact.
... Moreover, about 80% of the world's population lives in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, where people depend heavily on the nature for living. Climate change has significantly disrupted the natural ecosystem, making these regions vulnerable to adverse weather effects (Pickson et al., 2023). This calls for an urgent and concerted effort towards mitigating the atmospheric carbon emission, which critically depends on the transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy. ...
... The primary focus and rationale behind this study involve examining the influence of good governance, serving as a proxy for collaborative governance, on the sustainable development index within vulnerable low and lower-middle-income Asian countries. These countries face heightened vulnerability to climate change and encounter challenges due to inadequate state capital to effectively drive green projects (Pickson et al., 2023). The study aims to shed light on the significant role that good governance can play in fostering sustainable development in settings with limited resources. ...
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This scholarly investigation scrutinizes the involvement of the private sector in environmentally sustainable projects, employing the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag methodology on yearly data spanning from 2000 to 2020 across 11 low and lower-middle-income Asian nations. It specifically assesses the influence of the good governance index. Findings indicate a notable correlation, where a 1% enhancement in the index corresponds to a 0.34% increase in private engagement in green projects in the short term and a 0.64% increase in the long term. The study underscores the significance of economic stability; a 1% escalation in uncertainty leads to a 0.56% short term and 0.73% long-term reduction in private participation. It underscores the driving role of gross domestic product growth and the proliferation of small and medium-sized enterprises, emphasizing the necessity for tailored financial instruments to stimulate private investment in green projects. Moreover, it explores practical policy avenues such as e-government services, information and communication technology-driven digital transformation, sustainable corporate governance, and issuance of state-backed green bonds to foster private-sector participation in eco-friendly initiatives. Future research avenues encompass examining the repercussions of the pandemic on private green investments and evaluating the efficacy of the public-private partnership model in green projects across these economies.
... Many studies (Kibrom et al., 2023;Saboori et al., 2022;Pickson et al., 2023;Soylu, 2022;Yılmaz and Tomar, 2022;Demirbaş et al., 2017;Aydın Can et al., 2021, Kaypak, 2014 Efficiency analysis in wheat production in Turkey: the case of Konya Province Agizan, K.; Bayramoğlu, Z.; Candemir, S. ...
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The aim of this study was to analyze the efficiency of wheat production activity in Konya province and to determine the factors affecting the economic efficiency. The data of the study were obtained from 165 wheat producers in Konya province in 2022. Data Envelopment Analysis was used to determine the efficiency of the wheat production. In the study, technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, scale efficiency, allocation efficiency, and economic efficiency were calculated as 0.844, 0.959, 0.879, 0.913, and 0.875 respectively. It is determined that 76.97% of the enterprises have increasing returns to scale 20% have constant returns to scale, and 3.03% have decreasing returns to scale. In addition, according to the results of Tobit analysis, it was concluded that the amount of enterprise land, ownership structure of land, and irrigated land ratio positively affect economic efficiency in wheat production. According to the results of the study, it is concluded that the efficient use of inputs will contribute to an increase in the profit margin.
... The influence of climate change on agricultural production in 12 Asian nations demonstrates that increased T typically promote production, except in South-Eastern Asia. Meanwhile, fluctuating rainfall patterns have diverse effects, highlighting the need for increased agricultural investment to ensure food security (Pickson et al., 2023). Ecological afforestation initiatives have substantially impacted vegetation restoration in these areas, highlighting the vital importance of environmental engineering in improving forest growth and productivity (He et al., 2022). ...
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Understanding the intricate relationship between climate variables and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is essential for effective ecosystem management. This study focuses on the spatiotemporal dynamics of NDVI and its interaction with climate variables in the ecologically diverse Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Province, Pakistan, from 2000 to 2022. The research methodology involves analyzing satellite images and meteorological datasets to examine NDVI and surface latent heat flux (SHF), total precipitation (TPP), temperature (T), soil temperature (ST), and total pressure (TP). KPK Province's ecological significance and complex climate-vegetation interactions drive the selection of this study area. The study uses multiple linear regression analysis to investigate how T, TPP, SHF, and TP influence NDVI. The Mann-Kendall test detects trends, with Sen's slope estimator quantifying trend magnitudes. Additionally, correlation coefficients provide insights into long-term changes and association strengths. The findings highlight a consistent upward trend in mean NDVI over the 23 years, revealing an overall increase in NDVI, particularly in vegetation-dense areas where it rose from 0.27 to 0.32. The research showed an annual growth rate of 0.84% in the entire area, with specific vegetated zones exhibiting a slightly lower rate of 0.80%. However, the average yearly increase in NDVI is higher in vegetation-specific zones (0.00237) compared to the whole area (0.00151). This increase in NDVI occurs alongside a statistically significant decrease in SHF and PPT, suggesting a complex adaptation of vegetation to changing climate conditions in the KPK Province. In contrast, SHF exhibits a statistically significant negative slope of −5.952e-06 (p < 0.05), indicating a pronounced downward trend. Similarly, Sen's slope estimate for precipitation demonstrates a significant negative trend of −0.0001 (p < 0.05), showing diminishing precipitation. The study uncovers intricate linkages between climate variables and vegetation dynamics within KPK Province. These insights have far-reaching implications, guiding decision-making in land management, conservation efforts, and global climate resilience strategies. Ultimately, the research underscores the critical role of data-driven approaches in shaping a greener and more sustainable future.
... Obviously, that climate change poses risks for social and economic development in regions. At the sectoral level, researchers point out primary sector, tourism, and nature-based activities (Goers et al., 2023;Gonçalves et al., 2022;Mayer et al., 2023;Pickson et al., 2023) as sectors with potential losses depending on regional economic structures and environmental characteristics (Song, Wang, & Wang, 2023). Effects may appear as decline in gross regional product and employment (Goers et al., 2023). ...
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Climate change and depopulation challenge regional sustainability through their negative effects on socioeconomic conditions. Given regional peculiarities in terms of geographical, economic, social, cultural, demographic, and environmental aspects, regions differ. As a result, the intensity of the possible negative effects provided by climate change and depopulation also differs across regions. A timely understanding of possible risks that have to be addressed through sustainable regional development policies allows for effective risk management. The article aims to characterise depopulation and climate change risks for the regions of Latvia. Within the article, the authors, first, elaborate long-term forecasts for population change by application of system dynamic modelling; second, characterise the climatic and environmental peculiarities of the regions in Latvia. The research findings introduce a wider audience of scientists and practitioners to possible risks for sustainable regional development in terms of climate change and depopulation. According to the data analysed, at the moment, for sustainable regional development in Latvia, depopulation is a greater risk than climate change. However, both risks have to be addressed through effective management.
... Moreover, about 80% of the world's population lives in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, where people depend heavily on the nature for living. Climate change has significantly disrupted the natural ecosystem, making these regions vulnerable to adverse weather effects (Pickson et al., 2023). This calls for an urgent and concerted effort towards mitigating the atmospheric carbon emission, which critically depends on the transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy. ...
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The planet earth is facing an unprecedented level of environmental crisis fuelled primarily by the exorbitant level of carbon stock in the atmosphere. Hence, our sustainable living in this planet depends greatly on mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission. This calls for a paradigm shift of energy epicentre from traditional fossil fuels to renewable energy. The transition, however, is not smooth because numerous obstacles deter large-scale penetration of renewable energy. This study aims to examine the impact of financial stress on renewable energy consumption in the USA. We avail nonparametric and quantile econometric techniques on monthly data between 1986 and 2016. Results show a negative effect of financial stress on renewable energy consumption in the long run. Analysis further shows that financial stress unidirectionally Granger causes renewable energy in the long run—with greater prominence in the upper half of the distribution. However, consumers tend to substitute fossil fuel with renewable energy during the time of higher financial stress, perhaps as an attempt to seek relief from augmented financial strain. This implies that the benefits of adopting renewables are considerable notwithstanding the (energy generation) project scale and adoption rate in the economy.
... Similarly in the context of Africa, Pickson et al. (2023) examined the effects of climatic conditions on cereal production in Africa and discusses the potential implications for food security in the region. By analyzing the relationship between climate variables and cereal crop yields, the study sheds light on the challenges faced by African countries in ensuring stable food supplies in the context of a changing climate. ...
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This study marks the pioneering use of time-series econometric techniques and methods, including ARDL, FMOLS, and CCR framework, to examine the short-run dynamic and long-run impacts of climatic change and agricultural technologies on wheat production in India. The research covers the period from 1991 to 2018, thereby spanning nearly three decades. To enhance the assessment of factors influencing wheat production, we incorporated agricultural employment, agricultural credit, and cultivated land into the empirical model. By doing so, we aimed to gain a deeper understanding of the influence of fundamental factors on wheat production dynamics during the study period. In addition, the Granger causality test was employed to determine causational direction among the underlying variables. Results indicate that climatological factors such as precipitation pattern and carbon emissions contribute to an increase in wheat production. In addition, the results indicate that advanced technology has considerably contributed to the increase in wheat production. The ARDL method's long-term results were confirmed and validated by econometric techniques including FMOLS and CCR. According to Granger's estimation of causality, the relationship between farm equipment, agricultural labor, and wheat crop yield is bidirectional. The findings regarding causality indicate that climatological factors had a significant impact on wheat production. To mitigate this issue, the government should develop new crop varieties that are well-suited to the agroclimatic conditions.
... The literature has cited several factors affecting food security, such as commodity price variability, lack of farmland, institutional support, and financial credit (Chandio et al., 2021a(Chandio et al., , 2022aLv et al., 2022;Subramaniam et al., 2020;Wang et al., 2020). However, frequent climate variability poses a fundamental challenge to global food production, as its consequences are multidimensional and context-driven (Aydinalp & Cresser, 2008;Calzadilla et al., 2014;Chandio et al., 2022b;Pickson et al., 2023a;Ray et al., 2019;Thornton, 2012). Africa remains the most susceptible continent to climate change shocks (Carabine et al., 2014;Niang et al., 2014) due to its geographical location, low income, low adaptive capacity, and over-reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture (Belloumi, 2014). ...
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Climate change is a confounding factor that affects food security in several ways. Although the analyses of earlier studies in this area were largely non-technical, new analytical techniques have been developed to comprehensively evaluate climate change patterns and their implications for food security. In this study, we use recent developments in panel econometrics, which consider cross-sectional dependence and parameter heterogeneity, to examine the effects of climatic conditions on cereal farming in Africa from 1970Q1 to 2017Q4. The results show that rainfall positively affects cereal crops, although average temperatures are typically unfavourable. In the country-specific scenarios, we observed significant variations in the influence of climatic conditions on cereal production. The causality test results show a two-way causal relationship between climatic conditions—rainfall and temperature—and cereal production. It is suggested that African governments and non-governmental organisations support farmers' adaptation to climate change by implementing policies that prioritise farmers' capacity building and ensure that extension service officers engage with farmers intensively.
... Selain itu, perubahan iklim juga turut mengganggu keberlanjutan produk -produk agribisnis. Peningkatan suhu dan peubahan pola curah hukan akan sangat mempengaruhi hasil panen (Liu et al., 2023). ...
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Buku ini juga akan memberikan informasi secara lengkap mengenai: Bab 1 Pengantar Ekonomi Pangan Dan Gizi Bab 2 Hukum Permintaan Dan Penawaran Bab 3 Kebijakan Pemerintah Tentang Pangan Dan Gizi Bab 4 Produksi Dan Konsumsi Pangan Di Indonesia Bab 5 Pola Pangan Harapan Bab 6 Sistem Ketahanan Pangan Dan Gizi Bab 7 Keseimbangan Pasar Bab 8 Pasar Dan Pemasaran Bab 9 Konsep Perilaku Konsumen Bab 10 Pendapatan Dan Gizi Bab 11 Isu-Isu Terkini Pangan Dan Gizi Bab 12 Gizi Dan Sosial Budaya Ekonomi
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The agricultural sector is a crucial driver for sustainable development in many countries , as it directly or indirectly contributes to various United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, this sector requires increasing financial investment to rejuvenate and modernise production processes. This study investigates the impact of private sector investment on agricultural production across selected Asian countries from 2001Q1 to 2020Q4. The results of the Driscoll-Kraay regression and the method of moments quantile regression reveal that private agricultural investment positively affects agricultural production. The findings indicate positive contributions from agricultural aid, domestic credit, and rural population, whereas remittances negatively affect agricultural production. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test results establish bidirectional causality between farm production and its determinants (private agricultural investment, agricultural aid, domestic credit, remittances, and the rural population). Based on these findings, we recommend that policymakers and governments incentivise and facilitate private agricultural investment to drive sustainable development. This strategy could boost agricultural productivity and enhance a more resilient agricultural system capable of withstanding environmental challenges while improving farmers' incomes and livelihoods.
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This study advances the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, specifically focusing on Goal 3 (Good Health and Well-Being) and Goal 13 (Climate Action). This study uses novel analytical techniques that consider cross-sectional dependencies, intra-cluster correlation, endogeneity, and parameter heterogeneity to explore the relationship between climate change and human well-being in Asian countries from 1990Q1 to 2019Q4. Our empirical results show three things. First, an inverse relationship exists between temperature and human well-being in Asian countries. Second , we observe a robust positive impact of rainfall on human well-being in Asian countries. Lastly, there is a one-way causal effect from rainfall to human well-being and a two-way causal relationship between temperature and human well-being. Our robust results, therefore, suggest that developing comprehensive economic plans to promote public welfare can create a positive feedback loop where enhanced well-being drives greater economic engagement and prosperity.
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Purpose As climate change increasingly affects rural food production, there is an urgent need to adopt agricultural adaptation strategies. Because the agricultural sector in Nepal is one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, the adaptation strategies of household farmers in rural areas are crucial. This study aims to address the impacts of agricultural climate change adaptation strategies in Nepal. The research empirically analyzed climate hazards, adaptation strategies and local adaptation plans in Mangalsen Municipality, Achham District, Sudurpashchim Province, Nepal. Design/methodology/approach This study used a purposive sampling of household lists, categorized as resource-rich, resource-poor and intermediate households. The analysis used primary data from 110 household surveys conducted among six focus groups and 30 informants were selected for interviews through purposive random sampling. Findings Climate change significantly impacts rainfall patterns and temperature, decreasing agriculture productivity and increasing household vulnerability. To overcome these negative impacts, it is crucial to implement measures such as efficient management of farms and livestock. A comprehensive analysis of Nepalese farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change has been conducted, revealing important insights into their coping mechanisms. By examining the correlation between farmers' strategies and the role of the local government, practical policies can be developed for farmers at the local level. Originality/value This study represents a significant breakthrough in the authors' understanding of this issue within the context of Nepal. It has been conclusively demonstrated that securing land tenure or land security and adopting appropriate agricultural methods, such as agroforestry, can be instrumental in enabling Nepalese households to cope with the effects of climate change effectively.
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Nourished communities are recognized as having a productive and sustainable agricultural sector. The Saudi government has shown great concern for food production and availability, which is reflected in the Saudi Arabia Vision 2030 which focuses on both food availability and consumption. The overall objective of this chapter is to evaluate the current and potential status of domestic food production and consumption, as well as forecast patterns and changes in the future. In this chapter, time series secondary data and information gathered by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) were used. The data covers crop and animal products from 1961 to 2021, as well as food supply information from 2010 to 2020. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics such as averages, graphs, and trend lines. The results revealed that 43% of the land is used for fruit cultivation, 38% for cereals, and 18% for vegetables. The passage of time has had a significant effect on cultivated land and cropping patterns, which have changed significantly due to issues with water and natural resources. While the land and production for cereal crops are decreasing, they are increasing for vegetables. The increase in vegetable production is higher than the increase in land, attributable to advanced production technologies and efficient resource usage. Food supply showed changes over time, with varying self-sufficiency rates for vegetable crops ranging from 4 to 118% and fruits from 60 to 118%. For animal products, it ranged between 43% for red meat and 121% for milk. We conclude that despite the unfavorable climate and natural resource constraints to food production, efforts have been made to enhance production and food security regarding food availability in Saudi Arabia.
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Temperature variability may have direct and indirect impacts on the environments of the Accra and Kumasi Metropolises in Ghana. This study analysed temperature and trends in temperature in both cities using in-situ measurements from one meteorological station in both cities from 1986 to 2015. The temperature indices were computed using the RClimdex package from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI). The temperature time series was pre-whitened before the Mann–Kendall trend and Sen’s slope estimator analysis were applied. Initial analysis revealed minimal variation in temperature in both cities. The results from the analysed temperature indices revealed an increase in warm days and a general rise in the minimum temperature compared to maximum temperatures. Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope revealed significant trends in the annual and seasonal (dry and wet seasons) in minimum temperature in both cities. These might lead to an increased rate of heat-stressed diseases and an overall rise in urban warming in both cities. The analysis of temperature, indices and trends provided comprehensive insights into the temperature of Accra and Kumasi. The results highlight the essence of evaluating temperature indices and trends in light of Climate Change concerns. It is recommended that urban green and blue spaces should be incorporated into land use plans as these policy directions can aid regulate the temperature in both cities.
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The Horn of Africa is the most food insecure region in the world. More than 40 percent of the population in the region is malnourished. This study aims to examine the effects of climate change on food insecurity using panel data from the Horn of Africa. The GMM estimator of the dynamic panel model was used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study findings show that food insecurity in the Horn of Africa is adversely affected by temperature. Keeping all other inputs constant, an increasing the mean temperature and carbon dioxide emissions by 1percent results in an increase in food insecurity of 0.357 percent and 0.026 percent, respectively. It was also observed that a 1 percent increase in precipitation resulted in a 0.023 percent decrease in food insecurity. The study results indicate that cereal yield, food production index, and political stability were significant and negatively influenced food insecurity. This study concluded that climate change results in food insecurity in the Horn of Africa, and food availability is expected to be reduced in the region. In order to cope with the adverse consequences of climate change, adopting high-temperature and drought-resistant varieties of improved food crops is advisable to ensure food availability and food security for the region.
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With the commendation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the United Nations in 2015, the whole world is trying to accomplish these goals. All countries of the world are making efforts to achieve these goals. As compared to developed countries, developing countries are still far behind on the track of the sustainable development agenda. Realizing the goal of Zero Hunger (SDG 2) under climate change proves to be "challenging". Climate change can potentially be associated with eradicating hunger (SDG 2) worldwide, specifically in South Asia. Food security is considered a prerequisite to eradicating hunger and remains a challenge for developing countries. The study reconnoiters the potential footprints of climate change along with socio-economic variables on food security in climate-vulnerable food-insecure economies of Asia from 1980 to 2020. This study examines the impacts of variations in temperature on the supply of cereals for human consumption. The method of ARDL/PMG has been employed. There are two widely used techniques, i.e. FMOLS and DOLS, have also been employed to check the strength of the results. Outcomes of panel ARDL/PMG show that average yearly change in temperature has substantial and positive impacts on food security in the long run, but the square of the annual average change in temperature adversely and significantly impacts food security. Climate change has substantial and adverse effects on the food security of Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal but positive effects on Pakistan in the short run. From empirical outcomes, generalized and widespread policy guidelines have been endorsed to achieve food security (SDG 2) in the climate-vulnerable food-insecure economies of Asia. The study recommends evidence-based policy implications for the stakeholders of Asian economies.
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The past few decades of extreme drought and flooding caused by changing climate conditions have significantly affected agricultural production globally. This study focuses on two vital crops in China—maize and rice—and provides a comprehensive analysis of how these crops are affected by climate change-induced factors over the periods 1978Q1–2015Q4. Four key findings were obtained. First, using a nonparametric approach to estimate actual and observed trends of climatic variables, the results show a significant positive trend in average temperature from February to October. On the other hand, seasonal temperature increases during spring, summer, and autumn. Second, the results show no significant change in the monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall patterns when examined over the study period. Third, using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we find that while temperature and rainfall do not significantly support rice production in the long and short run, they play a substantial role in maize production in China. Finally, we find no significant difference in the results for rice when the quantile regression (QR) technique that controls for distributional asymmetry effects is employed. However, the impact of temperature on maize decreases at higher quantiles. Given the outcomes of our study, we argue that an advanced irrigation system is crucial and must be encouraged to minimize the effects of climate change on crop production.
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Aerosols are an inextricably linked component of the atmosphere. Nowadays the study of aerosols has attracted the attention of the world community due to the increasing concerns over air pollution and climate change. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is the measure of aerosols distributed within the atmospheric column from the Earth's surface to the top of the atmosphere. This study was conducted to examine the trend in AOD between latitudes 22° and 24.62° N, and longitudes 83.26° and 87.01° E, covering the entire part of the Indian state of Jharkhand. Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator model were used to examining the trend over 18 years (period: 2000–2017) AOD data obtained from satellite-based sensor namely MODIS. The highest AOD was observed in the north-eastern part, while the lowest was observed in the state’s southwestern part. The mean relative percentage change (RPC) analysis showed that the AOD increased from 20 to 60%. Jharkhand State comprises various sub-regions; all the sub-regions, including major cities, have shown a remarkable positive trend. In particular, Dhanbad, Sahibganj, Chaibasa, Jamshedpur, Ranchi, and Hazaribagh demonstrate statistically significant positive trends (99% confidence level). It was observed that the highest positive trend (0.1228) and the lowest negative trend (−0.02587) were in Sahibganj and Gumla districts, respectively. This study revealed a statistically robust significant correlated pattern of AOD with the variability of meteorological factors.
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The study draws inference on the impact of agricultural trade openness, total factor productivity (TFP) growth, and domestic agriculture support on food security in Africa. To retain estimates efficiency and consistency in the presence of complex error terms, we employed the Panel-Corrected-Standard-Error (PCSE) estimator on panel data spanning 2005–2016 for 13 African countries. Results suggest that agricultural trade liberalisation and TFP have significant and favourable effects. Moreover, we find that reducing agricultural support beyond distortion-free levels enhances food security. Further to trade openness, we call for export growth-oriented domestic support anchored on agricultural human-capital development, innovation, and research and development.
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Purpose The first purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes on food security, welfare and GDP in South Asian countries. The second purpose is to assess the agricultural subsidies and South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) as policy responses to climate change. Design/methodology/approach The present study uses the computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework and econometric approach in an integrated manner to examine the economic impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes in South Asian countries. An econometric model is used to identify the impact of climate change on cereal yields and CGE approach is used to assess the future effect of climate change through simulations. In this course, the econometric findings are applied to Multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project 10 and then the model is calibrated for future projection. Findings The results indicate that there is a decrease in cereals production because of climate change and eventually it increases the prices of cereals, decreases the local consumption and GDP and, as a result, causes a loss in welfare. Subsidies and SAFTA have been found to have no substantial impact on increasing food security in South Asia. Originality/value The present study uses the concept of food demand for all cereals in an integrated way and focuses on the fiscal and trade policy responses to climate change.
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Climate-related hazards can lead to agricultural losses and affect local and wider food supply via food trade. This study estimates the potential for adverse effects of climate hazards on food supply across Indian States and Union Territories (hereafter ‘states’) by quantifying climate hazard risks. Risks were estimated using the most recent data available on hazard presence, vulnerability, and volume of per capita food supply that is exposed to hazards. Historical (2000–2020) climatological and geological data sourced from meteorological stations and satellite imagery were used to estimate the state-level presence of eight climate-related hazards (droughts, forest fires, floods, extreme rainfall, landslides, cyclones, extreme temperatures, sea level rise). For each state and hazard type, we distinguished between risk to food supply produced in the state and the risk to food supply imported from other states. The source of food supply was estimated from a supply and demand balance model for 30 major food items that uses government data from 2011–12. We found that climate hazard risks to food supply vary across states and by hazard type. The largest climate hazard risks to state food supply are in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Assam, where the majority of risk is to locally produced supply. Food supply in each state is at risk to all eight climate hazards via food imports from other Indian states. For 14 states, the climate hazard risk is greater for imported food supply than for locally produced supply. Just five states contribute to more than half of the climate hazard risk in interstate food trade. The findings indicate that climate-related hazards in Indian states could have potentially adverse effects on national food supply, affecting both local production and interstate trade. For policy-makers, these climate hazard risks identify potential priorities for enhancing food system resilience to mitigate impacts on local and national food security.
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Climate change is bringing drastic changes to the food availability, accessibility, quality, and stability in the world. Pakistan heavily relies on production of wheat for food security. This study investigates the role of climate change on food security over Punjab regions, Pakistan, from 1979–2020. The study utilized the total production of wheat to measure food security. Moreover, the study utilized mean, maximum, minimum temperature, wind speed, and rainfall as a measurement of climate change. This study utilized auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test cointegration approach to test the long-run cointegration, while ARDL model is applied to investigate the short-run relationship among modeled variables. This study adopted Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Parron (PP) test to check the stationarity of the data. Moreover, the study ensures reliability and validity of the model by utilizing Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation, Breusch-Pagan-Godfry HSK, and Ramsey RESET test. This study found that wheat cultivated area (0.46*), total irrigated area (2.67***), total un-irrigated area (1.93***), and total area sown ([1.0809**) have a positive and significant long-run impact on food production in all regions of Punjab Pakistan. However, while average, the maximum and minimum temperature is negatively and significantly associated with food production in all regions of Punjab (− 1.07**; − 3.33***; − 1.84**), except northern Punjab, where maximum temperature affects positively food production Punjab. Rainfall negatively and significantly affects food production in northern (− 0.34**) and central and southern (− 0.13***) Punjab. Furthermore, wind speed negatively affects food production in all regions of Punjab (− 0.22**; − 0.21*; − 0.11**), except northern Punjab. This study implies that government should develop policies to increase irrigation facilities and loan facilities to increase the total area sown that will help to increase wheat yield and ensure food security. Moreover, the government should devise policies for large-scale plantations to minimize climate change impacts. The study also suggests new improved varieties of the wheat crop that can survive and flourish in the presence of adverse climatic changes, high temperature, and high wind speed.
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This study is the first effort to assess the long-term effects of change in climate on crop production in South Asian countries from 1991 to 2016 by employing the second-generation methods robust to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. Using panel data with the panel dynamic least squares (PD-LS) method and several co- integration approaches, this study confirmed a long-term cointegration among considered variables. The long-run estimates revealed that climatic variables, including temperature and CO2 emissions, negatively affected crop production, suggesting that a 1% increase in temperature and CO2 emissions reduces crop production by 1.93% and 0.32%, respectively. Conversely, precipitation positively affects crop production in the long-run, indicating that a 1% surge in precipitation increases crop production by 0.52%. Moreover, non-climatic variables including cultivated area, income level, and financial development positively affected crop production in the long-run. Furthermore, a 1% surge in cultivated area, income level, and financial development enhances crop production by 0.29%, 0.13%, and 0.04%, respectively. The outcomes of the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test confirmed that the causal link among all variables is significant, and outcomes verify the previous findings. This study suggests that urgent attention should be given to various adaptation strategies, such as credit supply, cropped area expansion, irrigation infrastructure enhancement, and the introduction of improved kinds of major food crops to enhance agricultural productivity. Besides, agricultural extension authorities should provide information about climate change to farming communities to deal with the adverse impacts of sudden climate changes on productivity.
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This study investigates the relationship between climate variables such as rainfall amount, temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and the triple dimension of food security (availability, accessibility, and utilization) in a panel of 25 sub-Saharan African countries from 1985 to 2018. After testing for cross-sectional dependence, unit root and cointegration, the study estimated the pool mean group (PMG) panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The empirical outcome revealed that rainfall had a significantly positive effect on food availability, accessibility, and utilization in the long run. In contrast, temperature was harmful to food availability and accessibility and had no impact on food utilization. Lastly, CO2 emission positively impacted food availability and accessibility but did not affect food utilization. The study took a step further by integrating some additional variables and performed the panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) regression to ensure the robustness of the preceding PMG results. The control variables yielded meaningful results in most cases, so did the FMOLS and DOLS regression. The Granger causality test was conducted to determine the causal link, if any, among the variables. There was evidence of a short-run causal relationship between food availability and CO2 emission. Food accessibility exhibited a causal association with temperature, whereas food utilization was strongly connected with temperature. CO2 emission was linked to rainfall. Lastly, a bidirectional causal link was found between rainfall and temperature. Recommendations to the national, sub-regional, and regional policymakers are addressed and discussed.
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Climate change and extreme climatic events cause massive food grain loss, which adversely impacts food availability, food import, and other economic factors. Bangladesh has been combating climate variability and extreme climatic events to abate agricultural production loss for a long time. In this article, we investigated the relationship between food grain loss and food security with reference to extreme climatic events in Bangladesh, based on data from 1984 to 2017. We used the vector auto-regression (VAR) model and derivative analyses, and suggested policy implications related to the existing national agricultural policy. Five time-series variables were judiciously considered: food availability, food loss, food import, gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, and inflation rate. The results show that the variable, food grain loss has a reverse association with food security—it escalates import from the world food market, causing import-dependence. Moreover, food loss significantly instigates inflation. However, the GDP growth rate was found to be a weak provocateur. Overall, climate change and climatic extremes jeopardize the country’s food security and hinder its pursuit of the sustainable development goals, especially stand-alone goals 1 and 2. Therefore, it is concluded that changes in climate and their correlations are detrimental to Bangladesh’s food security and economy.
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The worldwide mean temperature has increased by nearly about 1.1 °C since the preindustrial era and this increase may reach up to 4 °C by the tip of the twenty-first century due to the rising concentration of greenhouse gases. Since soils are related to climate system in a very complex way through nutrient and hydrologic cycles, global climate change is predicted to have a possible impact on soil fertility through the physical, chemical, and biological properties of soil due to rise in temperature, alternation in precipitation pattern, increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, etc. These detrimental effects of global climate change can be minimized by following both adaptation and mitigation measures. This paper reviews the influence of global change in the climate such as rise in temperature, alteration in precipitation pattern, and increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide on soil properties and processes affecting soil fertility.
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Climatic changes are posing serious threats to crop production and food insecurity across the globe. This study explores the dynamic relationship between changing annual temperature and production of major crops such as wheat, rice, bajra, jowar, maize, barley, gram, sugar cane, mastered oil, and cotton in Pakistan from 2000 to 2019 through an eclectic production model. The estimated result of panel econometric analysis revealed a significant negative effect of rising temperature on selected crop production in the long run with an insignificant impact in the short run. Among other explanatory variables, the area under cultivation and fertilizer input have significant positive effects in both the long run and the short run. Improved quality seeds revealed insignificant effects and urging authorities to enhance quality research to develop climate change resilient crops. This study urges Pakistan to improve agriculture technology along with adopting other greenhouse gas mitigation, such as forestation and clean energy, and water conservation policies.
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Extreme climate change is posing an increasing threat to human welfare across countries. Specifically, the devastating floods coupled with the looming spectre of drought are argued to explain cross-country differences in food security. While the debate continues and uncertainties about the precise influence of climate change on food security linger, the question of whether climate change plays a pivotal role in increased hunger and food insecurity across countries remains unanswered. This study presented new evidence of the role of climate change in Africa’s food security. We utilised the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to analyse climate change trends. We also employed the pooled mean group technique and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test to investigate the effect of climate change on food security in 15 African countries between 1970 and 2016. Our empirical findings revealed three things. First, rainfall plays a decisive role in Africa’s food security when examined broadly. However, the significance of the effect of rainfall varied substantially across the 15 countries. Second, we find no robust impact of temperature on food security in the long run. However, the short-run results showed that extreme temperatures impede food security, with varying magnitudes across countries. Third, except for rainfall, a bidirectional causality exists between food security and temperature in Africa. Given the risks associated with rain-fed agriculture, we argue that African countries need to limit their dependence on rain-fed agriculture to boost food production.
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This study examined the effects of climate change on rice production in 30 Chinese provinces spanning 1998–2017. The study used the pooled mean group technique to capture the long-run and short-run effects of changing climatic conditions on rice production. It further employed the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test to examine the path of causality between the key variables and rice production. The study found that, in the long run, average temperature negatively influenced rice production, but average rainfall had a positive effect on rice production. The results indicated that the cultivated area and fertilizer usage were positively related to rice production in the long run. The short-run results accentuated that average temperature favourably influenced nationwide rice production, whereas average rainfall had no substantial effect on national rice production. The cultivated area had a significant positive short-term relationship with rice production, although the impact of fertilizer usage on rice production was negligible in the short run. Besides, the results established a bidirectional causality between rice output and the cultivated area, but there was a one-way causality running from fertilizer usage to rice output. Finally, the results indicated that, except for rainfall, a unidirectional causality exists between temperature and rice production. The study, therefore, recommends that in the case of crop failure due to weather conditions, policymakers could implement a new pricing policy to mitigate the deterioration of the farmers’ income. The government must also develop and implement an insurance scheme that compensates farmers for catastrophes induced by rainfall deficiency.
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This study aimed at comprehensive framework to investigate the variability and trends in the daily, seasonal and annual precipitation using parametric and non-parametric tests. The daily and seasonal trends of rainfall were analyzed from the IMD data of 1981-2016. The study displays daily, seasonal and annual trend patterns and magnitude of trend slope in precipitation data series for different regions of Andhra Pradesh. The procedures that are adopted to identify the presence of trend are Mann-Kendall and Sen's estimator of slope which are carried out at statistical significance at 95% level of confidence. The month to month precipitation information were utilized to process the yearly and regular time arrangement. The adjustment in extent for a period arrangement is resolved utilizing a nonparametric technique (Sen's estimator) and the factual noteworthiness is breaking down through Mann-Kendall (MK) test.
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The changing temperature has been identified as a major factor militating against food and nutrition security in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). The food production index and undernourished population growth index are used as a proxy for food and nutritional security. The study controlled climatic change responses on some agricultural characteristics and factors like the share of arable land, irrigation, population, and labor. The dynamic panel of the generalized method of moments (GMM) was applied to the global water balance empirical framework. The scope of the study is sub-Sahara Africa, drawn from 29 countries from 2000 to 2016. Findings from the study reveal that the short-run effect of temperature degrees increase poses at least -3.1% negative and significant impact on the food production while the long-run elasticity hits -7.5%. The controlled effect on arable land shows a positive impact on food production to the tune of 3.9%. Contrarily, arable land expansion reduces the undernourished population by -8.55%. Population increase, on the other hand, increases the undernourished population in the region to the tune of 11.95%. The study recommends the reservation of more arable land for agricultural practice. At the same time, the population control policy is encouraged to jointly negate the undesired effects of temperature on food and nutritional security timely now that food and nutritional security is the panacea for a standard of living.
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This empirical work aims to investigate the long-run impact of climatic factors (i.e., CO 2 emissions, precipitation, and temperature), and non-climatic factors (i.e., cultivated area, fertilizer consumption, and rural labor force) on rice production in selected major Asian rice-producing countries over the period 1961-2016. The results of the heterogeneous panel coin-tegration test show the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables. The results of DOLS reveal that climatic factors such as CO 2 emissions and temperature significantly reduced rice production in the long-run, while precipitation increased rice production in the long-run. Further findings show that non-climatic factors including cultivated area, fertilizer consumption, and rural labor force significantly enhanced rice production in the long run. It is evident from the findings that precipitation and production factors such as cultivated area, fertilizer consumption, and rural labor force played a vital role in increasing rice production and secure food security in major Asian rice-producing countries. Based on the present findings, this study suggests that to reduce the adverse effects of climate change and ensure food security, there is a need to improve adaptation strategies.
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Climate change is a global threat to the food and nutritional security of the world. As greenhouse-gas emissions in the atmosphere are increasing, the temperature is also rising due to the greenhouse effect. The average global temperature is increasing continuously and is predicted to rise by 2 °C until 2100, which would cause substantial economic losses at the global level. The concentration of CO2, which accounts for a major proportion of greenhouse gases, is increasing at an alarming rate, and has led to higher growth and plant productivity due to increased photosynthesis, but increased temperature offsets this effect as it leads to increased crop respiration rate and evapotranspiration, higher pest infestation, a shift in weed flora, and reduced crop duration. Climate change also affects the microbial population and their enzymatic activities in soil. This paper reviews the information collected through the literature regarding the issue of climate change, its possible causes, its projection in the near future, its impact on the agriculture sector as an influence on physiological and metabolic activities of plants, and its potential and reported implications for growth and plant productivity, pest infestation, and mitigation strategies and their economic impact.
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The potential impacts of climate change on current livestock systems worldwide is a major concern, and yet the topic is covered to a limited extent in global reports such as the ones produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this article, we review the risk of climate-related impacts along the land-based livestock food supply chain. Although a quantification of the net impacts of climate change on the livestock sector is beyond the reach of our current understanding, there is strong evidence that there will be impacts throughout the supply chain, from farm production to processing operations, storage, transport, retailing and human consumption. The risks of climate-related impacts are highly context-specific but expected to be higher in environments that are already hot and have limited socioeconomic and institutional resources for adaptation. Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems to climatic changes over time. Consequently, adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures, including those with low probability but large consequences.
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Purpose The study attempted to assess the food security status of urban agriculture households in Ghana and India. Also, the extent of urban agriculture participation and its effect on food security in Ghana and India were examined Design/methodology/approach A total of six hundred and fifty urban agriculture farmers were interviewed for this study in Ghana and India. Food security status of urban households was assessed by the use of the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, whereas the determinants of the extent of urban agriculture and its effect on food security were analysed by the use of the heteroskedastic linear regression and the Seemingly Unrelated Regression models, respectively. Findings From the study on average, households in Ghana were mildly food insecure, but that of India was moderately food insecure. The results further revealed that, various demographic, economic, institutional, health and nutrition factors differently influenced urban food security and the urban agriculture participation. Also, the extent of urban agriculture participation positively influenced food security. Originality/value Several studies in Asia (India) and Africa (Ghana) on urban food security have been geographically limited to New Delhi, Mumbai and Greater Accra, with few studies in the Middle Belt of Ghana, and Bihar in India. Besides, there is a limited, rigorous, empirical study on the effect of the extent of urban agriculture on food security in Asia (India) and Africa (Ghana) individually and together. Moreover, we extend the frontiers of the methodological approach by applying the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model to understand if the factors that affect food-security accessibility based on two food security accessibility tools are correlated. Keywords: urban agriculture, food security, HFIAS, per capita food expenditure
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Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square (FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results: (1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2 (1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2 (0.014%). (2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China. (3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.
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Purpose – The climate change effects on agricultural output in different regions of the world and have been debated in the literature of emerging economies. Recently, the agriculture sector has influenced globally through climate change and also hurts the all sectors of economies. The key aim of this study is to examine and explore the impact of global climate change on agricultural output in China over the period of 1982-2014. Design/methodology/approach – Different unit root tests including ADF, P-P and KPSS are used to check the order of integration among the study variables. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and the Johansen cointegration test are applied to assess the association among the study variables with the evidence of long-run and short-run analysis. Findings – Unit root tests estimations confirm that all variables are stationary at the combination of I(0) and I(1). The results show that CO2 emissions have a significant effect on the agricultural output in both long-run and short-run analysis, while temperature and rainfall have a negative effect on agricultural output in the long-run. Among other determinants, the land area under cereal crops, fertilizer consumption, and energy consumption have a positive and significant association with agricultural output in both long-run and short-run analysis. The estimated coefficient of the error correction term is also highly significant. Research limitations/implications –China's population is multiplying, and in the coming decades, the country will face food safety and security challenges. Possible initiatives are needed to configure the Chinese government to cope with the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture and ensure adequate food for the growing population. In concise, the analysis specifies that legislators and policy experts should spot that the climate change would transmute the total output factors, accordingly a county or regional specific and crop-specific total factor of production (TFP) pattern adaptation is indorsed. Originality/value – The present empirical study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to investigate the impact of global climate change on agricultural output in China by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and Johansen cointegration test.
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Climate change is estimated to exacerbate existing challenges faced by smallholder farmers in Sub-Sahara Africa. However, limited studies quantify the extent of variation in climate change impact under these systems at the local scale. The Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT) was used to quantify variation in climate change impacts on maize yield under current agricultural practices in semi-arid regions of Senegal (Nioro du Rip) and Ghana (Navrongo and Tamale). Multi-benchmark climate models (Mid-Century, 2040–2069 for two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and multiple soil and management information from agronomic surveys were used as input for DSSAT. The average impact of climate scenarios on grain yield among farms ranged between −9% and −39% across sites. Substantial variation in climate response exists across farms in the same farming zone with relative standard deviations from 8% to 117% at Nioro du Rip, 13% to 64% in Navrongo and 9% to 37% in Tamale across climate models. Variations in fertilizer application, planting dates and soil types explained the variation in the impact among farms. This study provides insight into the complexities of the impact of climate scenarios on maize yield and the need for better representation of heterogeneous farming systems for optimized outcomes in adaptation and resilience planning in smallholder systems.
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This paper contributes to the existing literature on rainfall variability and food security. It analyses the effect of rainfall variability on food security for 71 developing countries from 1960 to 2016. Results suggest that rainfall variability reduces food security in developing countries. Indeed, it reduces food availability per capita and increases the percentage of total undernourished population. Moreover, the negative effects of rainfall variability are exacerbated in the presence of civil conflicts and are high for the countries that are vulnerable to food price shocks.
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Crop yields are projected to decrease under future climate conditions, and recent research suggests that yields have already been impacted. However, current impacts on a diversity of crops subnationally and implications for food security remains unclear. Here, we constructed linear regression relationships using weather and reported crop data to assess the potential impact of observed climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops–barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat at ~20,000 political units. We find that the impact of global climate change on yields of different crops from climate trends ranged from -13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). Our results show that impacts are mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa and Australia but generally positive in Latin America. Impacts in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed. This has likely led to ~1% average reduction (-3.5 X 10¹³ kcal/year) in consumable food calories in these ten crops. In nearly half of food insecure countries, estimated caloric availability decreased. Our results suggest that climate change has already affected global food production.
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Crop production in the Fanteakwa District is predominantly rainfed, exposing this major livelihood activity to the variability or change in rainfall pattern. The net potential effect of severe changes in rainfall pattern is the disruption in crop production leading to food insecurity, joblessness, and poverty. As a major concern to food production in Ghana, this study seeks to show the relationship between the production of major crops and rainfall distribution pattern in the Worobong Agroecological Area (WAA) relative to food security in the face of climate change. The study analysed the variability in local rainfall data, examining the interseasonal (main and minor) rainfall distribution using the precipitation concentration index (PCI), and determined the pattern, availability of water, and the strength of correlation with crop production in the WAA. Data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) spanning a 30-year period and grouped into 3 decades of 10 years each was used. Selected crop data for 1993-2014 was also obtained from the Ministry of Food and Agriculture’s District office and analyzed for trends in crop yield over the period and established relationship between the crop data and the rainfall data. Part of the result revealed that rainfall variability within the major seasons in the 3 groups was lower than the minor seasons. It further showed that yields of three crops have declined over the period. Among the strategies to sustain crop production is to make the findings serve as useful reference to inform discussions and policy on adaptive agricultural production methodologies for the area in the face of changing climate.
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This study attempts to estimate the effects of climate change variables, such as average temperature, CO2 emissions and average rainfall, on cereal production in Malaysia from 1969 to 2018. After preliminary tests on time series data, we employed a novel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method known as the dynamic ARDL simulations technique. The results showed that a long-run co-integration relationship exists between cereal production and climatic and non-climatic factors. All climate variables have a negative impact on cereal yield, while energy consumption and cultivated land have a positive effect on cereal yield in the short- and long-run. Granger causality analyses also showed that a unidirectional causality link exists between rainfall and temperature with cereal production and between CO2 emissions and cereal production. Energy consumption, as a proxy for technology, has a one-way Granger cause with cereal production. The results of the dynamic ARDL simulations suggest that cereal yield was most sensitive to CO2 emissions, rainfall and temperature. In the long run, a 1% increase in temperature is associated with a 2.87% and 3.52% decrease in general and predicted estimates of cereal production, respectively. The dynamic ARDL simulations methodology provides a better understanding of the variability of cereal production in Malaysia as a result of climate change.
Chapter
Soil health and its fertility are an integral part of soil that provides a medium for plant growth and crop production. Climate is another most important aspect of nature and it is also a neutral thing similar to soil, but changes in climate occurs due to atmospheric environmental changes. Direct and indirect impacts of soil fertility are observed due to changes in climate. Although changes in soil are not an instant process, it takes years, and often sudden climatic changes destroy the vegetation of specific area and it may have many other effects. Human activity is directly or indirectly affecting climate change and further affecting soil health. Changes in soil health can affect food production such as crop, vegetables, etc. There are many factors in soil which can change due to effects of climate change; it can be physical, chemical, and biological. Climate change affects soil from its formation to its level of plant production. Soil affects climatics changes directly and indirectly as it is the main place of different biological and biochemical cycles.
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Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) presents the opportunity to meet the world’s increasing food demands in the face of climate variability. It is more responsive to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 13. CSA practices have the potential to alleviate low potato yields among farmers. Investigation of the determinants of practice of CSA would therefore go a long way in informing the efforts to adapt potato production to the effects of climate change. This study explored the determinants of practice of CSA documented by theoretical authorities and empirical studies. The study systematically investigated the need for CSA by reviewing the effect of climate change on potato production. Information from institutional websites and data from FAOSTAT were reviewed. Understanding the financial, natural, physical, and social capital required to execute the CSA technological practices is key to its adoption. Additionally, the mode of communicating the CSA practices determines its adoption, therefore, knowledge of such determinants and that of socioeconomic and institutional factors shapes CSA technological development and diffusion strategies. Understanding of these is essential to tailoring the CSA practices to the farmers’ most pressing needs and to the development of the practices that can easily be accessed and adopted by the farmers.
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Abstract: The current study examines the effect of global climate change (CO2 emissions), financial development, and technical progress (fertilizer consumption and improved seed distribution) on cereal production in Pakistan over the 1977–2014 period. The study undertakes the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to investigate the long-term interrelation among the variables. The outcomes of the ARDL bounds-testing approach confirmed the presence of a long-term relationship among the variables. Empirical results revealed that CO2 emissions have a negative impact on cereal production in the short-run and long-run. It means that increase in global climate change will decrease cereal production. Findings further showed that financial development has a positive impact on cereal production in both cases. It suggests that increasing financial development will enhance cereal production, which will ensure the country’s food security. In addition, technical progress has a significantly positive impact on cereal production in both cases. The dynamic OLS, fully modified OLS, and the canonical cointegrating regression estimators confirmed the robustness of the findings. Financial development is essential for sustainable agriculture production; therefore, policymakers should devise a comprehensive agriculture policy that addresses the financial needs of the agriculture sector and attracts investment. The financial institutions may use carbon financing as a tool to intervene in the financial market to generate funds for the application of cleaner production principles and the use of best practices for agriculture development and sustainable production. Keywords: Financial development, Climate change, Cereal production, ARDL approach
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This study investigates the temporal variability and trend of temperature and rainfall in Gelana sub-watershed, northern highlands of Ethiopia. The study employed a mixed methods approach, but overwhelmingly relied on gridded monthly rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature data at a resolution of 10 × 10 km. The quantitative data were analyzed using standardized rainfall anomaly, precipitation concentration index, coefficient of variation and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis. The results indicated that rainfall over “Kiremit” and “Belg” seasons is found highly variable in the study area. The annual total rainfall has shown an increasing trend of 0.05 mm per year. The MK test results showed that “Kiremit” rainfall has a positive increasing trend, while Belg rainfall showed a statistically significant decreasing trend. A warming trend of annual maximum and minimum temperature has been observed over the study area. The study suggests strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems and to reduce the likelihood of production risks.
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We report on a randomized field experiment designed to relax credit and risk constraints for agricultural activities. We conducted a study in a drought-prone region in northern Ethiopia among poor smallholders who depended on rainfed agriculture and were members of the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP). Data were collected from over 1100 farmers in 32 rural villages over two years. We find that unconditional voucher transfers designated for the purchase of agricultural inputs significantly increased usage of seeds and fertilizers (a flypaper effect), raised the amount of farmland used (a complementary effect), and induced substitution of own effort by hiring casual labor (a local spillover effect). Subsidized rainfall insurance with reduced input vouchers produced weak average effects but greatly increased investments for farmers who were relatively more patient. We do not find heterogeneous effects by farmers’ risk attitudes, however, suggesting that the effects of insurance adoption were mainly determined by how farmers in the safety net made tradeoffs inter-temporally. Insurance demand dropped quickly with the reduction in subsidy and did not correlate with time or risk preference. Therefore, to improve cost-effectiveness, insurance programs should include procedures that help identify forward-looking farmers and encourage their adoption. While our results show that initial subsidies increase future insurance demand, the effect was small and thus initial subsidies would not be a cost-effective mechanism for financially sustainable insurance. Other complementary strategies on the design, promotion, and bundling techniques of insurance would be needed.
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In sub-Saharan Africa, farmers face the pressing challenge of climate change that affects crop production. To cushion themselves against climate change, farmers need to invest in appropriate adaptation measures. This study investigates and reviews adaptation measures in the crop sector of 21 African countries. The main source of data are National Communications under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To obtain the latest data and information the Second and Third National Communications were retrieved. Using a grounded theory approach, 33 categories of adaptation measures emerged, which were later collapsed into six thematic adaptation areas. Then an in-depth analysis of relevant documents and a systematic literature review were conducted. From the adaptation categories, conservation agriculture; water, irrigation and flood management; crop diversification; inputs and subsidies; disease and pest management; and weather-based index insurance emerged. The findings show that African governments have identified many adaptation measures and have claimed some success. However, it was evident that some limiting factors remain in building a climate-resilient crop sector. The research concludes that although governments claim success in adaptation measures that have been put in place, additional studies should be conducted to verify and confirm the success of such adaptation approaches being applied.