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CLIMATE CHANGE
as an Opportunity for Cooperation on
International Rivers
The Blue Nile River Basin
Lama Elhatow
163936_LamaElHatow-OMS_R19,5-proef.indd 2-3 21-12-2022 11:36
Climate Change as an Opportunity for Water Cooperation across
the Blue Nile River Basin
By Lama El Hatow
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 1 21-12-2022 11:31
Provided by thesis specialist Ridderprint, ridderprint.nl
Printing: Ridderprint
4*0/) .$")҃ $ & &҂+ -.**)'$%&+-* !.#-$Ȩҁ)'
ISBN: 978-94-6458-861-3
Copyright© Lama Elhatow 2023
All rights reserved. No part of this thesis may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any
way or by any means without the prior submission of the author, or when applicable, of the
publishers of the scientific papers.
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 2 21-12-2022 11:31
Climate Change as an Opportunity for Cooperation on the Blue Nile River
Basin
Klimaatverandering als een kans voor watersamenwerking in het stroomgebied van
de Blauwe Nijl
Thesis
to obtain the degree of Doctor from the
Erasmus University Rotterdam
by command of the
rector magnificus
Prof.dr. A.L. Bredenoord
and in accordance with the decision of the Doctorate Board.
The public defence shall be held on
Thursday 2 February 2023 at 13.00 hrs
by
Lama Mosad Farag Mohamed Elhatow
born in Kuwait, Kuwait.
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 3 21-12-2022 11:31
Doctoral Committee:
Promotor: Prof.dr. WA Hafkamp
Other members: Mr.dr. JA van Ast
Prof.dr. P. van der Zaag
Prof.dr. F. Perez Salgado
Copromotor: Prof.dr. J.J. Bouma
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 4 21-12-2022 11:31
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Through uprisings and revolutions, this researcher has had to withstand the many variables
and constantly changing parameters along the countries of the Blue Nile. Through all this
instability, the constants in my life that I am in complete gratitude for are my dear parents,
Mom and Dad, whom I dedic ate this manuscript to. Thank you for being my ever ything, always.
You have been the greatest support to me t hrough it all and I owe you everything. The PhD has
been an enriching journey whilst also challenging. I must thank the people who have helped
( )"0$ ( '*)"/# 24/*2# - ()*2ҁҍ'$& /*/#)&(4 - ./.0+ - 1$.*-.
-ҁ)+*0()-ҁ$(!&(+2#*(2$/#*0//# $-"0$) 2*0')ҍ/ # -
/*4ҁҍ'.*'$& /*/#)&-ҁ'#'#""-҂-ҁ*)'0$.$)"#҂-ҁ *.Ң(4# - ./
in peace), Dr. Frank Boons, Dr. Rodrigo Lozano, Dr. Dalia Sakr, and at last but not least Dr. Peter
Scholten who has been instrumental in assisting me with this research. Thank you all for the
()44 -.*!"0$) )# '+ҁҍ'.*'$& /*/#)&-ҁ()0 ' )/$)$҂-ҁ"$)$*"'$--
*) ҂)-ҁ -/). -$)&Ң(4# - ./$)+ ң!*-/# %*$)/2*-&)- . -#*)/# $' ҁ
2)/ /*/#)&(- ('!*-/# *1 - .$")*!/#$./# .$./#/ 0/$!0''4 (*$ .
/# /2*$' .Ң#$/ )'0 ң( /$)"$)#-/*0(//# *)!'0 ) ҂)/# 24'$(/
change manifests on this water body that can sway between conflict and/or cooperation.
Omar you have been a great help and your artistic abilities are profound and reflective. Thank
4*0*) "$)ҁҍ'.*'$& /*/#)&'*#$ '$)!*-# -..$./) $)/-).-$$)"/#
interviews, and to Mushira Sabry for her support in editing the thesis. Their assistance has
been extremely helpful and needed.
ҍ'$& /*/#)&(4 - *'' "0 .2#*#1 )#0" .0++*-/.4./ (/#-*0"#*0//#$.
PhD journey including Sherif Kinawy, Ibrahim Emam, Yasmin Zaerpoor, Abeer Rabie, Abby
Onecan, Tamer Mohamed, and Wondwosen Seide. You have been instrumental in helping me
absorb this PhD path for all that it is. I wanted to take the opportunity to also thank my dear
friends Lameece Hassan, Marwa Elsabbahy, Rona Shedid, Noha Morgan, and Mohamed Nour
for their support to me all these years. My family, including my dear brothers Wael and Hany,
my sister in-law Noha, and my dear nephews and niece Maryam, Abdelrahman and Ibrahim,
#1 )+$1*/'/*( )#1 '24. )(4-*&ҁ./0/)*/' ./҂ҍ'$& /*/#)&
my husband Ahmad Tabana for his constant support in this process, as well as my stepson
4ҁ#)&4*0!*-'24.# -$)"( *)҂ 1 )2# )$)ҍ/ '$ 1 $)(4. '!ҁ*02 -
(4$"" ./# -' -ҁ$/#*ҍ.# '+)"0$) ҂/#$.()0.-$+/*( ./*'$"#/Ȩ -
()44 -.҂.*( / -)''4"-/ !0'!*-*ҍ.'$"#/ҁ
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 5 21-12-2022 11:31
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 6 21-12-2022 11:31
SUMMARY
With the impending doom of climate change, trans-boundary river basins become hotspots
!*-/ ).$*)҂-$1'-4*1 -- .*0- .҂)+*..$$'$/$ .*!Ҍ2/ -2-.ҍҁ# - $.)*$ȥ - ) $)
the Blue Nile River Basin between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, where there have been dec ades
of tension over water usage. Much of the empirical evidence from literature suggests that
along global transboundary river basins, that we are more inclined to move towards coop-
-/$*)/#)*)!'$/ Ң*'! / 'ҁэыыюңҁ'$(/ #)" #*2 1 -҂$)/*/#$.($3҂)/#
situation becomes that much more complex. With the urgency of climate change, the need
/*/#. *( (*- +- ..$)"ҁ# -$."- ( )/Ңэыьѐң*)'$(/ #)" $.$./$)/
indication that once it becomes a matter of urgency, global collective action can take place.
Hence, with every crisis, stems an opportunity, and the main hypothesis of this thesis was
that climate change can be an opportunity for cooperation on the Blue Nile River Basin. The
ultimate goals of this research include a) to propose cooperative arrangements on the Blue
Nile, and to b) provide recommendations on how to move towards these collaborations. Var-
ious theories were examined in relation to conflict/cooperation, climate change, and drivers
!*-/$*)2# - 4҂/# *- /$'!-( 2*-&2. 1 '*+ /#/0/$'$5 $-0(#$ҍ.Ңэыыђң
TWINS matrix that conflict and cooperation co-exist at the same time in a dynamic nature.
It also included the literature that suggests that the drivers can be interlinked and grouped
/# (/$''4.0#. *)*($҂+*'$/$'҂.*$') )1$-*)( )/'Ң*'! /'ҁэыыю҂ $/*0)
et al, 2008). Literature on climate change with respect to conflict and/or cooperation was
examined, and the culmination of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement in 2015 demonstrated that
.// .2$''҂$)!/҂*( /*/$*)2# ))$(+ )$)". ). *!0-" )4$.'**($)"Ңэыьѓңҁ
# ( /#**'*"4 3($) /# - '/$*).#$+.(*)"/# Ҍ-$1 -.!*-/$*)ҍ./# $) + )-
)/1-$' *)/# Ҍ)/0- *!$)/ -/$*).ҍ(*)"/# .// ../# + ) )/1-$' 2$/#
climate change as the impetus. The methods selected included document analysis, sur veys,
and interviews; with validation through triangulation of the data that were obtained. The
results were analyzed qualitatively.
As a first step, identifying the s takeholders along the Blue Nile was imperative to see who are
the main players within t he negotiation process, and whether there is pote ntial for new players
to appear as potential agen ts for cooperation. A sta keholder mapping was con ducted based on
literature and the empirics from the interviews and surveys. The majorit y of the respondents
stated that the government is still the most influential player in this process with the largest
role to play but added that governments need to be more inclusive of other stakeholders.
One of the main obser vations that emerged from the empirics, was the role that civil society
played as an actor to respond to climate threats for adaptation where the government was
too burdened to respond. This role can and should be enhanced further.
Throughout histor y the nature of interactions among the three countries has changed. Ex-
amining those relationships over history provided insight into the drivers that propel states
/*(*1 /*2-.*)!'$/)Ҩ*-/*2-.**+ -/$*)ҁ/$'$5$)"/# (/-$3Ң$-0(-
#$эыыђң҂)#$./*-$')'4.$.2.*)0/ *!/# ($) 1 )/./#/.#$Ȩ /# )/0- *!
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 7 21-12-2022 11:31
$)/ -/$*).҂.2 ''.$)1 ./$"/ 1 )/.*)/$( '$) 0)/$'эыьёҢ0+*)*(+' /$*)*!/#
empirical res earch). The empirical f indings from the interview s and survey s showed of the four
-$1 -.*+ -/$*)'$5 Ң *)*($҂+*'$/$'҂ )1$-*)( )/'҂).*$'ң҂/# ' $)"-$1 -.!*-
**+ -/$*)/#/#1 .#$Ȩ /# )/0- *!$)/ -/$*).(*)"/# /#- *0)/-$ .#1 )
primarily economic with the sub- variables of trade and donor support being highlighted, while
some of the more conf lictive interactions were politically driven with sub-var iables of national
political changes being highlighted. It is vital to note that although, many of the driver s for the
nature of interactions are economic, some of the underlying reasons for these economic driv-
ers are environmental. As soon as the water is at risk and water insecurity becomes the issue,
the nature of interac tions becomes more conflictive and volatile with hea ds of state becoming
Ҍ1$*'$5 ҍ$)/# $--# /*-$ҁ# - .҂2# )/# - $.. ). *!0-" )4/**''*-/ Ң.0#.
2$/#҂)+*/ )/$''42$/#'$(/ #)" ң҂/# )/0- *!$)/ -/$*). *( .(*-
cooperative and modes of technical and risk aver ting collaborations begin to take place. The
empirics identified a valuable and new path to move for ward within the nature of interactions
of the TWINS matrix, which was fr amed under the joint technical collaboration box to include
Ҍ%*$)/+- +-/$*)ҍ҂Ҍ%*$)/$ )/$!$/$*)ҍ҂Ҍ%*$)/$(+' ( )//$*)ҍ҂)Ҍ%*$)/*2) -.#$+ҍ҂$)/#/
order of progression. This addition by the policymakers reflects the reality on the ground
to achieve a higher form of cooperation under technical collaboration which includes joint
ownership at the highest level.
A vulnerability assessment of the three states under climate change was done utilizing the
2/ -Җ ) -"4Җ!**Ңң 30..!-( 2*-&/* // -0) -./)/# $)/ -'$)&" .)
dependencies with one another. It was found that the various plans on agriculture, water,
and climate change within each countr y were developed in policy silos, as a result of which
the plans were not synchronized, nor were there prospects or needs to develop international
cooperation . Water plans of upstream co untries did not take into consideration th e water plans
and development initiatives of downstream countries, and vice versa. This is problematic in
that they all share the same transboundary water resource but are not collaborating or syn-
chronizing with one another on how this resource is to be shared, sustainably and managed
for all countries and for future generations. It became clear that if the Blue Nile River Basin
countries begin to take a regional approach of the WEF Nexus, rather than just looking at it
from a national perspective, there will be great gains for all the countries.
The main research que stion of looking at the role of climate change as an oppo rtunity for water
cooperation across the Blue Nile River Basin was answered by analyzing the empirical data
from the interviews. Several findings became apparent, including the following: i) Climate
change is not a priorit y in the discussions on a trilateral level among the Blue Nile River Basin
countries; ii) Climate change can only be integrated into the trilateral discussions, if the coun -
tries begin to fo cus more on long-term sustainability a s opposed to short-term economic g ains;
iii) The intensity of the drivers matters just as much as the type of driver itself. The empirics
$ )/$!$ /#//# $)/ ).$/4*!-$1 -.()$! ./$)"$)Ҍ$../ -.ҍ)+0.#/# .// ./*2-.
more collaborative interaction with one another, with the question of urgenc y. Here stems the
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 8 21-12-2022 11:31
opportunity for climate change to emerge as an enabler for cooperation through the intensity
of the driver and the disasters it causes or will cause, to incentivize states to cooperate.
Based on the findings from the empirics a framework for cooperation on the Blue Nile was
developed to provide recommendations for policymaker s. This framework identified several
threads for coope ration, with one specific thread that does, in f act, outline how climate change
can be an opportunity for cooperation. This was shown by utilizing the economic driver of
donor support to finance climate change research as one of the proposed solutions by the
three countries for joint collaboration to receive the intended benef its of water security, food
security, regional stability, and improved international standing. The environmental driver
was an underlying cause manifested by the intensity of the driver which resulted in climate
#)" $../ -. .0# .!'**.) -*0"#/.҂/#/- / . ). *!0-" )4 /*.#$Ȩ/#
nature of interactions towards technical collaboration. This does not mean that it is the only
pathway to collaboration, as the framework shows that there could be other pathways that
may not necessarily include climate change, that could be an opportunity. With every crisis
stems an oppor tunity, and the countries of the Blue Nile River Basin have identif ied numerous
opportunities from this crisis that are potential enablers for cooper ation. As one of the respon -
dents so eloquently expressed “t he three countries can get more be nefits with cooperat ion on
climate change than without”. This is the core of this thesis, that demonstrates that through
collaboration, the three countries have significantly more to gain.
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 9 21-12-2022 11:31
NEDERLANDSE SAMENVATTING
Klimaatverandering zorgt ervoor dat grensoverschrijdende stroomgebieden hotspots worden
1**-.+))$)" ) )-$1'$/ $/*1 -)/00-'$%& #0'+-*)) )ҁ-&0)) )Ҍ2/ -**-'*" )ҍ0$/- -
ken. Dat is ook zo in het stroomgebied van de Blauwe Nijl tussen Eg ypte, Ethiopië en Soedan,
waar tientallen jaren spanning heerste over het watergebruik. Er is echter empirische bewijs
in de literatuur dat erop duidt dat we in grensoverschrijdende stroomgebieden meer geneigd
5$%)/*/ .( )2 -&$)")/*/*)!'$/Ң*'! /'ҁэыыюңҁ-./// " )*1 -/҂( /
huidige klimaatverandering, de situatie veel complexer wordt. De noodzaak om te handelen
2*-/./ .-$)" ) -ҁ 1 - )&*(./1)-$%.Ңэыьѐң*1 -&'$(/1 -) -$)"$. )
duidelijke indicatie dat zodr a het een kwestie van urgent ie wordt, wereldwijde collectieve a ctie
&ć)+'/.1$) )ҁ )-$.$.$ /&). )ҁ ')"-$%&./ #4+*/# . 1)$/+-* !.#-$Ȩ2.
dat klimaatverander ing een kans kan zijn voor internationale samenwerking in het stroomge-
bied van de Blauwe Nijl. De doelen van dit onderzoek zijn: a) het doen van voorstellen voor
samenwerking in het stroomgebied van de Blauwe Nijl, en b) het doen van aanbevelingen
over hoe deze samenwerking kan worden bereikt. Verschillende theorieën werden onder-
zocht over conflict/samenwerking, klimaatverandering en motieven voor actie. Er werd een
/# *- /$.#& -*)/2$&& ' /" -0$& (&/ 1)$-0(#$Ңэыыђң$%2$ *)!'$/ )
samenwerking naast elkaar kunnen bestaan. Het onderzoek verkende ook de literatuur die
suggereert dat motieven voor actie met elkaar kunnen worden verbonden en thematisch
" "-* + -҂5*'. *)*($.#҂+*'$/$ &҂.*$' ) *'*"$.#Ң*'! /'ҁэыыю҂ $/*0) /'҂
2008). Literatuur over conflict en samenwerking in het tegengaan van klimaatverandering is
onderzocht. De culminatie van het UNFCCC-akkoord van Parijs in 2015 toonde aan dat staten
daadwerkelijk in actie zullen komen wanneer een dreigend gevoel van urgentie opdoemt
Ңэыьѓңҁ )/-'$)# /*) -5* & ./*) ) $)1'* 1)Ҍ(*/$ 1 )1**-/$ ҍ*+
Ҍ-1)$)/ -/$ .ҍ/0.. ) .// )'. !#)& '$%& 1-$ ' ( /Ҍ&'$(/1 -) -$)"ҍ
als mediërende variabele. De gehanteerde methoden waren documentanalyse, enquêtes en
interviews; met validatie door middel van triangulatie van de verkregen gegevens. De resul-
taten zijn kwalitatief geanalyseerd.
Als eers te stap was het identificere n van de belanghebbenden langs de Blauwe Nijl noodzake-
lijk om te zien wie de belangrijk ste spelers in het onderhandelingsproces zijn en of er mogeli-
jkheden zijn voor nieuwe spelers die tot samenwerking kunnen bijdragen. Op basis van de
literatuur en de empirische gegevens uit de interviews en enquêtes is een stakeholder map-
ping uitgevoerd. De meerderheid van de respondenten gaf aan dat de overheid nog steeds
de meest invloedrijke speler is in dit proces, maar voegde eraan toe dat overheden andere
belanghebbenden meer in het proces moeten betrekken. Een van de belangrijkste empirische
waarnemingen was de rol die het maatschappelijk middenveld speelde bij adaptatie op kli-
maatbedreigingen, waar het nationale overheden te zwaar viel om te reageren. Deze rol kan
en moet verder worden versterkt.
In de loop van de tijd is de aard van de interacties tussen de drie landen aan veranderingen
onderhevig. Het onderzoeken van die relaties gaf inzicht in de motieven die landen ertoe
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 10 21-12-2022 11:31
)5 // ) *( -$#/$)" *)!'$/ )Ҩ*! .( )2 -&$)" / 2 " )ҁ -0$&(& )1)
Җ(/-$3Ң$-0(#$эыыђң҂2 - )#$./*-$.# )'4. 0$/" 1* - 1) ')"-$-
%&./ " 0-/ )$.. )$ -1)$)/ -/$ .1 -) - )҂*+ )/$%'$%)/*/эыьёҢ)
voltooiing van het empirische onderzoek). De empirische bevindingen van de interviews en
),0İ/ ./**) ))/1) 1$ -"-* + )(*/$ 1 )Ң *)*($.#҂+*'$/$ &҂($'$ 0 )
sociaal), de economische motieven het belangrijkst waren voor samenwerking, met name
de subvariabelen handels- en donorsteun, terwijl sommige van de meer conflictueuze in-
teracties werden gedreven door politieke motieven, met name de subvariabele nationale
politieke veranderingen. Hoewel de economische motieven de grootste invloed hebben op
de aard van interacties, blijken deze op hun beurt in belangrijke mate beïnvloed te worden
door milieumotieven. Zodra het water in gevaar is en waterzekerheid het probleem wordt,
wordt de aard van interacties meer conflicterend en veranderlijker. Daar staat tegenover dat,
2)) - - )" 1* '1)0-" )/$ $.*(.( )/ 2 -& )Ң5*'.( /҂ )(*" '$%&( /
klimaatverandering), de aard van interacties meer coöperatief wordt en vormen van tech-
nische en risicobeperkende samenwerkingen beginnen plaats te vinden. De empirische studies
maakten het moge lijk een nieuw pad te identificeren om vooruitgang te boe ken in de dimensie
1).( )2 -&$)"ҁ-$%"$)"# /( /)( *(Ҍ*3ҍ1**-/ #)$.# .( )2 -&$)"( /
Ҍ" 5( )'$%& 1**- - $$)"ҍ҂Ҍ" 5( )'$%& $ )/$!$/$ ҍ҂Ҍ" 5( )'$%& $(+' ( )//$ ҍ )
Ҍ" 5( )'$%& $" )*(ҍ҂$)$ 1*'"*- 1)+-*"- ..$ ҁ 5 /* 1* "$)"2 - $)" -#/
door de beleidsmakers, weerspiegelt de realiteit van het denken over internationale samen-
werking op het hoogste niveau.
In dit onderzoek is ook een beoordeling uitgevoerd van de kwet sbaarheid van de drie staten
1**-&'$(/1 -) -$)"ҁ$/2 -" )( / 2/ -Җ ) -"$ Җ1* . 'Ңң 30.'.
raamwerk voor het begrijpen van onderlinge verbanden en afhankelijkheden. De nationale
beleidsplannen plannen voor landbouw, water en klimaatverandering bleken in elk land in
' $..$'*ҍ./*/./)/ &*( )ҁ +')) ) 2- ) )$ / *+ '&- 2- )!" ./ ( ) -
bleek ook geen perspectief of noodzaak gezien te worden voor internationale samenwerking.
De waterplannen van bovenstroomse landen hielden geen rekening met de waterplannen
en ontwikkelingsinitiatieven van benedenstroomse landen en vice versa. Dit is problema-
tisch omdat ze dezelfde grensoverschrijdende waterbron delen. Het werd duidelijk dat als de
landen in het stroomgebied van de Blauwe Nijl een regionale benadering van de WEF Nexus
gaan volgen, in plaats van het alleen vanuit een nationaal perspectief te bekijken, er grote
voordelen zullen zijn voor alle landen.
De belangrijk ste onderzoeksvraag betrof klimaatverandering als een kans voor samenwerking
op het gebied van water in het stroomgebied van de Blauwe Nijl. Deze werd beantwoord door
de analyse van de empirische gegevens uit de interviews. In het kort waren de bevindingen:
i) Klimaatverandering is geen prioriteit in de besprekingen op trilateraal niveau tussen de
landen in het stroomgebied van de Blauwe Nijl; ii) Klimaatverandering kan alleen worden
geïntegreerd in de trilaterale discussie s als de landen zich meer gaan richten op duurzaamheid
op de lange termijn in plaats van op economische winst op korte termijn; iii) De intensiteit
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 11 21-12-2022 11:31
van de motieven is net zo belangrijk als het type motief zelf. De empirie liet zien dat als de
intensiteit van motieven groot is – en ze zich bijvoorbeeld manifesteren als rampen -- de
staten zich bewegen in de richting van een meer collaboratieve interactie. Hier ligt de kans
voor klimaatverandering als een enabler voor internationale samenwerking.
Op basis van de bevin dingen uit de empirie is een raamwerk voor samenwerking op de Blauwe
$%'*)/2$&& '*( ' $.(& -./ 1$. - )ҁ$/-(2 -&# Ȩ1 -.#$'' ) - )1**-
samenwerking , met één specifieke draad die laat zien hoe klimaatverandering een kans voor
.( )2 -&$)"&)5$%)ҁ*)*-./ 0)Ң.01-$ ' $) "-* + *)*($.# (*/$ 1 )ң1**-
financiering van ge zamenlijk onderzoek naar klimaatver andering, gericht op het realise ren van
voordelen op het gebied van waterzekerheid, voe dselzekerheid, regionale stabiliteit en bete re
internationale reputatie. Een milieumotief was hier een onderliggende oorzaak van grote in-
tensiteit: rampen als gevolg van klimaatverandering, zoals overstromingen en droogtes. Die
creëerden een gevoel van urgentie waardoor de aard van interacties zou kunnen verschuiven
naar technische samenwerking. Dit betekent niet dat dit de enige weg naar samenwerking is,
aangezien het raamwerk laat zien dat er andere wegen kunnen zijn die niet noodzakelijkerwijs
klimaatverandering omvatten. In elke crisis schuilt een kans, en de landen van het stroomge -
bied van de Blauwe Nijl hebben uit deze crisis talloze kansen geïdentificeerd die potentiële
katalysatoren zijn voor samenwerking. Zoals een van de respondenten articuleerde: “de drie
landen kunnen meer voordelen behalen met samenwerking op he t gebied van klimaatveran-
dering dan zonder”.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Introduction
Problem def inition and research questions
*"-+#$'*)/ 3 /*!/# '0 $' $1 -.$)
The Exis ting Institutional Framework in the Blue Nile Ri ver Countries
Structure of the The sis
Unique aspe cts of this research
21
22
26
32
36
43
Chapter 2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
Literature Review
Introduction
Literature Review
The Blue Nile River Basin
The limitations of TWINS
Concepts and Theories Utilized
Conclusions
47
48
50
74
77
80
82
Chapter 3
3.1
3.2
3.3
Methodology and Conceptualization
Research Objective and questions
Conceptualization and operationalization
Research Methods
85
86
90
91
Chapter 4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
Stakeholder Mapping of Various A ctors along the Blue Nile River Basin
Introduction
Methodology
/& #*' -.ҍ )/$!$/$*)
Stakeholder mapping
Stakeholder mapping
Survey Findings
Interview findings
Conclusion
101
102
103
106
120
122
124
130
Chapter 5
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
-$1 -.ȥ /$)"/# /0- *!)/ -/$*).*)/# '0 $'
Introduction
Methodology
-$1 -.ȥ /$)"/# /0- *!)/ -/$*)҂!-*(#$./*-$'+ -.+ /$1
-$1 -.ȥ /$)"/# /0- *!)/ -/$*)!-*(0-- )/+ -.+ /$1
Conclusions
137
138
138
142
150
158
Chapter 6
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
A Vulnerability Asses sment of Climate Change Impacts on the B lue Nile under
the WEF Nexus
Introduction
Methodology
Vulnerability As sessment of National Development and Climate Change plans
Asse ssment of the WEF-Nexus under climate change in the Blue Nile River Basin
Findings on climate change in relation to the WEF Nexus in the Blue Nile River Basin
Conclusion
163
164
165
168
180
195
202
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 15 21-12-2022 11:31
Chapter 7
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
Climate Change as an enabler for cooperation on the Blue Nile
Introduction
Methodology
Discussions of Climate Change
Findings in Relation to Solutions for collaboration
Enabling Factors: Tools
Conclusions
207
208
210
210
221
238
242
Chapter 8
8.1
8.2
8.3
Synthesis and Analysis: Framework for Cooperation on the Blue Nil e River
Introduction
Synthesis
Framework for cooperation on the Blue Nile River Basin
247
248
249
256
Chapter 9
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
Conclusions
Introduction
Summary of finding s
Reflec tions on the Methodology that was used in developing this thesis research
Recommendations for further research
275
276
277
282
285
Chapter 10 References 291
Keywords: Blue Nile, climate change and security, WEF nexus, transboundary water man-
agement, cooperation
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 16 21-12-2022 11:31
COMMONLY USED ACRONYMS IN THIS RESEARCH:
AMCOW: African Ministers Council on Water
AWC: Arab Water Council
BCM: Billion Cubic Meters
CBSI: Confidence Building and Stakeholder Involvement
CEDARE: Center for Environment and Development in the Arab Region and Europe
CFA: Cooperative Framework Agreement
҃'$(/ Җ .$'$ )/- )*)*(4
DFI: Developmental Finance Institutions
DoP: Declaration of Principles
DTWI: Dynamic Transboundar y Water Interaction
EEBC: Egyptian-Ethiopian Business Council
҃./ -)$' #)$' "$*)'ȥ$
FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization
҃-)/#$*+$) )$..) (
҃- )#*0. .($..$*).
HAD: High Aswan Dam
IEA: International Energy Agency
IFTD: International Freshwater Treaties Database
҃)/ -Җ*1 -)( )/'-")$5/$*)
IHE: Institute for Water Education
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPE: International Panel of Experts
IWRM: Integrated Water Resource Management
MSPs: Multi-Stakeholder Platforms
NAPA: National Adaptation Programme of Action
NBD: Nile Basin Discourse
NBI: Nile Basin Initiative
Җ҃# *0)$'*!$)$./ -.*!/ -ȥ$-.*!/# $' .$)
RBO: River Basin Organization
SES: Socio-Ecological Systems Framework
SIWI: Swedish International Water Institutes
SVP: Shared Vision Programs
TFDD: Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database
TWINS: Transboundary Waters Interactions Nexus
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework on Climate Change
UNWC: United Nations Water Course Convention
WB: The World Bank
WDF: Water Diplomacy Framework
WEF: Water-Energy-Food
WEFC: Water-Energy-Food-Climate
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 17 21-12-2022 11:31
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1: Floating Cities concept shown in Rotterdam in the Netherlands
$"0- ьҁэ҃+*!/# $' $1 -.$)2/ -.# Ңэыьєң
$"0- ьҁю҃+*!/# 1-$*0..0Җ.$).*!/# $' $1 -.$)Ңэыьєң
$"0- ьҁя҃*/'$' !'*2$)$''$*)0$( / -.ҢңҨ4 -Ңэыьєң
Figure 1.5: Conceptual model of relations
$"0- эҁь҃*) +/0'!-( 2*-&*!$- /)$)$- / ȥ /.*!'$(/ #)" *)- .*0-
1$'$'$/4)+*/ )/$'*)!'$/)**+ -/$*)4)($.Ң-* . эыьєң
$"0- эҁэ҃$& '$#***!#4-*Җ+*'$/$'$..0 .'*)"/# $' Ң-$)*.$ /'ҁэыьѓң
$"0- эҁю҃0. .*!2/ -*)!'$/Ң- $ /'ҁэыэың
$"0- эҁя҃(/-$3Ң$-0(#$эыыѓң
Figure 3.1: Conceptual model of relations
Figure 3.2: Operationalization of drivers
Figure 3.3: Operationalization of nature of interactions
$"0- юҁя҃+ -/$*)'$5/$*)*!'$(/ #)" ȥ /.
Figure 3.6: Research Methodology
Figure 4.1: Categorization of stakeholders
Figure 4.2: Stakeholder action and interaction in the development of transboundary water
()" ( )/Ң-' /'ҁэыьың
Figure 4.3: Stakeholder mapping of relationships and interac tions between players as shown
*).*Ȩ2-
Figure 4.4: Stakeholder mapping with centrality measures and weights
$"0- яҁѐ҃ .+*) )/.ҍ! &!-*(.0-1 4*)(*./.$")$!$)/./& #*' -.
Figure 5.1: Operationalization of nature of interactions
Figure 5.2: Operationalization of drivers
Figure 5.3: The T WINS matrix of conflict and cooperation, applied to hydro-political bilateral
- '/$*).*1 -/$( /2 )0))"4+/Ң $/*0) /'ҁэыыѓ҄.*эыыѓң
Figure 5.4: TWINS approach to the Blue Nile River Basin from 1979-2018
Figure 5.5: Additional definition of collaboration to TWINS matrix by respondents
$"0- ёҁь҃+ -/$*)'$5/$*)*!'$(/ #)" ȥ /.
$"0- ёҁэ҃+*!/#$*+$Ң,0.//эыьѐң
$"0- ёҁю҃+*!0)Ң,0.//эыьѐң
$"0- ёҁя҃+*!"4+/Ң/$*)'/ - .*0- .')эыьђң
$"0- ёҁѐ҃/ -Җ) -"4Җ**Җ'$(/ Ңң 30.$)/ "-/$*)ҁҢэыьёң
$"0- ёҁё҃/ --*% /$*).$)/# 4 -эыэѐҢ/ --$/4+эыыың
Figure 6.7 Nile Basin: Distribution of Intended and Contracted Land Acquisition by country
Ң..$)эыьёң
$"0- ёҁѓ҃3$./$)")+')) $)/ -*)) /$*)'$) .2$/#) $"#*-$)"*0)/-$ .Ң)4''0
2019)
$"0- ёҁє҃/$*)')/ - ./.$)**+ -/$*)Ң+/ !-*( !)4эыьёң
Figure 6.10: Main issues for key stakeholders in Blue Nile River Basin for regional cooperation
Ң !)4эыьёң
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 18 21-12-2022 11:31
Figure 6.11: Areas of WEF Nexus priority, financial, and technical cooperation between the
'0 $' $1 -.$)Ң !)4эыьёң
$"0- ёҁьэ҃ "$*)'$)/ "-/$*)*!'0 $' $1 -.$)*0)/-$ ./#-*0"# 30.ҁҢ !)4
2016)
Figure 8.1: Additional definition of collaboration to TWINS matrix by respondents
$"0- ѓҁэ҃ "$*)'$)/ "-/$*)*!'0 $' $1 -.$)*0)/-$ ./#-*0"#Җ 30.Ң !)4
2016)
Figure 8.3: Framework of regional cooperation
Figure 9.1: Framework of regional cooperation
$"0- єҁэ҃/ -.-$/4*(+*0) 4Җьє)'$(/ #)" Ңэыэьң
Table 8.3: Regional geo-political benefits expected from WEF Nexus.
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1: Timeline of significant events outlining the institutional framework of the Blue Nile
River Basin.
Table 2.3: Concepts and theories utilized
Table 2.4: Summary of drivers.
Table 3.1: Timeline of significant event s outlining the institutional framework of the Blue Nile
River Basin.
Table 3.2: Interviewee coding reference.
Table 4.1: Stakeholder identification.
Table 4.3: Internal Stakeholders, Regional Organizations, and External Stakeholders.
' ѐҁь҃$( '$) *! 1 )/.*)/# '0 $' ҁҢ+/ !-*(.-эыьѐң
Table 5.2: Trigger Events selected that cause interactions to move between TWINS matrix
Table 6.1: National Development Plans from Blue Nile River Basin countries related to Climate
Change and WEF.
Table 6.2: Vulnerability Assessment: Average Water-Energy-Food, and Climate Data for Blue
Nile Basin countries.
Table 7.1: Summary of joint projects and joint decision-making opportunities for three coun-
tries based on empirics of surveys and inter views.
Table 8.1 Summary of joint projects and joint decision-making opportunities for 3 countries
based on empirics of surveys and interviews.
Table 8.2: Assessment of various modes of regional cooperation on Blue Nile River Basin.
Table 8.3: Regional geo-political benefits expected from WEF Nexus.
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 19 21-12-2022 11:31
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 20 21-12-2022 11:31
Ѹ
Introduction
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 21 21-12-2022 11:31
22 Ѹ
ѸҁѸ
In light of climate change, trans-boundary water conflicts, and increasing demand from pop -
0'/$*)"-*2/#҂*0)/-$ .ҍ0." *!2/ -- .*0- .#. *( (*- )(*- 3 -/ ҁ
Conflict and conflicting values when it comes to water resources have been a plaguing issue
for decades, and specifically in the Middle East, where water is a scarce resource. Aaron Wolf
'*)"2$/#.($' -" '$)+ "" /# / -(Ҍ2/ -2-.ҍ2#$#)/$$+/ ./#/*-'-
III will be over water, conflicting interests, and control over this natural resource.
0#*!/# '$/ -/0- $.0.. ./# - .*0- 2-.҂)$)+-/$0'-2/ -2-.Ң*'! /'ҁ
2003). This comes in relation to the growing scarcity of natural resources on a global level
due to: population increase, developmental needs, and environmental devastation including
climate change. For the first time in 2014, directly before the Paris Climate Agreement at the
)$/ /$*).-( 2*-&*)1 )/$*)*)'$(/ #)" Ңң҂/# )/ -"*1 -)( )/'
) '*)'$(/ #)" Ңң+-*0 $/.$Ȩ#.. ..( )/Ңѐң- +*-/ҁ# *0( )/
states, for the first time, that there is in fact a link between climate change and human se-
curity. Ample evidence in the report suggests that climate change is a threat multiplier; with
security concerns that range from migration due to climate change, potential violent conflict
over resources, and new national security policies being developed by states to respond to
/# +#4.$'$(+/.*!'$(/ #)" *)$/.- .*0- .Ңѐэыьяңҁ*- *1 -҂$/./#/
“some transboundary impacts of climate change, such as changes in sea level rise, shared
water resources, and the migration of fish stocks” will likely create conflict between states
Ңѐэыьяңҁ$/#/# *(+ /$)"'$(.*1 -.#- 2/ -- .*0- .҂'$(/ #)" 2$''
only come in to aggravate the problem between countries even further. Thus, much of the
work on water wars has attempted to unpack how to mitigate this to ensure human security.
.*0- 2-.҂)2/ -2-.$)+-/$0'-҂(4ȥ / 1 -4! /*!.*$ /4҄!-*(/# +*-
tential loss of human life, to degr adation of environmental resources, to economic losses , and
of course political instability. Resource wars are essentially not new, as many would argue
/#//# (%*-$/4*!/# 2*-'ҍ."'*'2-.#1 )!*0"#/*1 -҂)!*-/# (*)*+*'4*!҂
res ources s uch as oi l, gold, etc . Such ag gress ion incl udes many of t he colon ial conques ts that
existed by the developed world on the developing world. In fact, much of the UNFCCC climate
debate revolves around how the developed world was able to manufacture and pollute the
"'* 2$/#- )#*0. .Ңң ($..$*).!-*($)0./-$'$5/$*)ҁ/'.*$.0.. .#*2
developed states were able to pillage resources from developing countries over history, and
therefore should pay the developing countries for the climate impact they caused.
With the onset of the COVID 19 pandemic in early 2020, it became more imperative to provide
access to safe water particularly to people in vulnerable communities to prevent t he spread of
$)! /$*0.$. . .ҁ.2 &)*2!-*(" )$ .'$& /# *-' '/#-")$5/$*)Ңң҂!- -
quent handwashing is imper ative to slow the spread of the virus and with limited clean water,
this become s probl ematic . Since v ulnera ble comm unities are less likely to have ac cess to clea n
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 22 21-12-2022 11:31
23
Introduction
and safe water the pandemic can create conflict over water resources. In regions with limited
and scarce water resources, this is an added layer of tension to the already existing problems.
-*)*'!Ңэыыюң#.*)0/ $)Җ +/#./0$ .*)/-).*0)-42/ -.# .-*../#
globe and the willingness of countries and communities to cooperate over this resource. He
discovered, that in all cases, countries do not go to war over water, as we are led to believe,
but in fact, are more prone to cooperate to find solutions. This was shown in the Rheine River
Basin, Indus River Basin and even in the Jordan River Basin with conf licting interests bet ween
Jordan and Israel.
In all cases, however, there always seems to be a specific factor that forces or incentivizes
.// ./***+ -/ /*!$).*'0/$*).҂.*++*. /*(*1 /*2-.*)!'$/ҁ.2!$&Ңэыьєң
explains, the se could be by coercive means: militar y force and coercion/pressure, but also by
0/$'$/-$)( #)$.(.Ң$ҁ ҁ*ȥ -$)" *)*($)+*'$/$'$) )/$1 .!*-**+ -/$*)ң҂.2 ''
as normative and ideational means: signing treaties and framing the dominant discourse. All
*!/# . Ҍ-$1 -.ҍ/***+ -/$*) - $)" 3($) $)1-$*0./-).*0)-4-$1 -.$).
and in their various contexts.
As much of the literature suggests, it also seems to suppor t the argument of the mutual ben-
efit-sharing literature that suggests the easing of tensions around transboundary water re-
.*0- .*0'!*./ -**+ -/$*)Ҍ 4*)/# -$1 -ҍҁ0-/# -(*- ҂$/)' /***+ -/$*)
in other water-related sectors such as food and energy production, and trade. Additionally,
it may even lead to reducing restrictions on the movement of goods, labor and finance, thus
+-*(*/$)"- "$*)'**+ -/$*)) 1 ) $)/ "-/$*)Ң*ȥ) - 4҂эыыэ҄**#*0. ҂
2017). As Professor Tony Allan once said, “the world is at peace because we have virtual water
/- ҁ/ҍ..*'1 .$' )/'4ҁҏ ) /# / -Җ) -"4Җ**Ңң 30.#. ) 3+'*- .
a platform for cooperation in various contexts, and also within the Blue Nile River Basin to
.0"" ./**+ -/$*) 4*)%0./2/ -Ң !)4эыьђңҁ
Mutual benefit-sharing of water resources has not yet been explored as an opportunity for
cooperation among these contending s tates. However, with the impending impact s of climate
changes, particularly as a threat multiplier, the mutual benefit-sharing of water resources can
be the potential factor within the Nile River Basin, and in specific the Blue Nile River Basin,
for collaboration.
This researcher investigated how climate change can be an enabler for cooperation rather
than conflict in relation to the transboundar y shared waters of the Blue Nile River Basin. The
objective of this research was to determine the readiness of persons in the Blue Nile countries
to cooperate using climate change as a catalyst and window of opportunity for collabora-
/$*)ҁ. -**/0.'$( ҂"4+/$./# "$Ȩ*!/# $' ҂'$& 2$. $.#4҂/# .*0- *!/#
Blue Nile in Ethiopia, is perceived as the divine outlet from Paradise. The Nile River holds
special meaning to the countries, cultures and communities that reside on the Nile River;
1
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 23 21-12-2022 11:31
24 Ѹ
thus, understanding these complexities is imperative to be able to determine the best way to
sustainably manage this watershed.
Cooperation is necessar y to avoid the loss of human life and to minimize the environmental,
economic, and social impacts that this would have upon the countries of this Basin. Scholars
have argued that if riparian states recognized the advantages of cooperation and noted the
*++*-/0)$/$ .'*./4)*/*$)".*҂/# 42*0'**+ -/ Ҍ 4*)/# -$1 -ҍ2$/#(0/0' ) -
!$/Җ.#-$)"*++*-/0)$/$ .҂.$ !-*(2/ -Ң*ȥ)- 4҂эыыэңҁ#$.- . -#2. .$")
/* 3+'*- /#$..+ /!0-/# -2$/#$)/# *)/ 3/*!/# / -Җ) -"4Җ** Ңң 30. .
mutual benefit-sharing gains to be obtained for all riparian states of the Blue Nile. As Tawfik
Ңэыьєң 3+'$) ҂(0#*!/# - . -#/#/#. )+-*0 '**&./#*2.// /*-.)
contribute to cooperation on the Blue Nile; however, very little has looked at non-state actors .
Ergo, this research was designed to examine the various stakeholders, main ac tors, and their
potential roles and opportunities for them within the process for cooperation.
With every crisis comes an opportunity, and the essence of this research is to see if climate
change cooperation on the Blue Nile River Basin can be an oppor tunity in the present crisis.
It is known that oppor tunity brings innovation. An example of this is in the Netherlands, with
/# ( -" ) *!Ҍ!'*/$)"$/$ .ҍҁ# 0/##1 *( /* 3 '/2/ -()" ( )/0 /*
the fact that one third of the Netherlands is below s ea level. It has been so for many centuries.
# $)$/$'.*'0/$*)2./*0$'4& .҂)2# )/# . )-*# !0-/# -/# 4ҍ0$'/# (
higher. But with climate change and the intensity and frequency of storms becoming more
3/- ( /# 4- '$5 /# 4*0')ҍ/& +*$)"/#$.!*-'*)" -.$/2*0'*)'4/& /# (.*
!-ҁ*҂/# 4#*(+' / +-$"(.#$Ȩ$)/# $-/#$)&$)") '$)"2$/#2/ -ҁ)./
of the traditional way of “keeping the water out” as much as they could, they decided to star t
' //$)"/# 2/ -$))Ҏ'$1$)"2$/#2/ -ҏ$)./ ҁ4(&$)"/#$..(''.#$Ȩ҂$/#)" 1-
erything from how they thought about infrastructure buildings, planning, etc. An innovation
that stemmed from this thinking was their “floating cities” which are shown in Figure 1.1 and
are being built in many locations within the Netherlands. It became one of their mechanisms
to adapt to climate change but also an attempt to become more inclusive of nature as opp osed
to repelling it. This example of a nature-based solution to water management, stemmed from
repeated inundation of lands by the sea. By turning a cr isis into an opportunity for innovation,
the Dutch have made it evident that this is possible.
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 24 21-12-2022 11:31
25
Introduction
Figure 1.1: Floating Citie s concept shown in Rotterdam in the Netherlands
The motivation for this research stemmed from several factors. Firstly, that this researcher
is from Egypt, and has been engaged in the UNFCCC climate negotiations for five years and
has been an Environmental specialist by profession for the last thirteen years. Secondly, the
impending impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin under the changing regional
political climate prompted this researcher to produce this study.
Much of the research on this topic has explored cooperation in the Blue Nile River Basin under
/# ' ).*!)/ -)/$*)' '/$*).Ңң҂+*'$/$' *)*(4҂) 1 )2/ - )"$) -$)"ҁ /1 -4
little research was designed to look at this topic through the le ns of environmental sustainabil-
ity and integrity of the river basin for future generations. The aim of this research is therefore
to bridge this gap and provide this missing link to the discussions on this topic focusing on
this environmental lens.
The overall objec tive of this research was to ass ess the readiness of Blue Nile River Basin coun-
tries to cooper ate due to climate change. Here it is necessar y to assess and under stand the gap
between what is “rationally desirable” with respect to mutual benefit sharing opportunities
)2#/$. Ҏ+*'$/$''4 ! .$' ҏ$) /-).*0)-4**+ -/$*)Ң05$эыыђ҂+ҁэьюңҁ# #4-
pothesis is that Climate Change can be a driving force for cooperation for Blue Nile River Basin
*0)/-$ ./*2-.0./$)' 2/ -()" ( )/ 4*)%0.//# -$1 -ҍ.2/ -.ҁ# 0'/$(/
goals of this research include outlining possible cooperative arrangements on the Blue Nile
River Basin, and to provide recommendations on how to move towards these collaborations.
$)0 ./$*)҃*2)'$(/ #)" )*++*-/0)$/4!*-**+ -/$*)$)/# '0 $'
River Basin in relation to the WEF Nexus?
1
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 25 21-12-2022 11:31
26 Ѹ
0Җ0 ./$*).҃
1. Who are the key stakeholders on the Blue Nile River Basin?
2. What is the nature of the interaction between the key stakeholders on the Blue Nile River
Basin?
3. What are the drivers for cooperation on the Blue Nile River Basin?
4. #/- /# +*/ )/$' ȥ /.*!'$(/ #)" *)/# '0 $' $1 -.$)҈
5. These questions will determine the nature of this research; consequently, outlining the
main themes that will be explored.
Ѹҁѹ
RIVER BASIN
The Nile River is the longest River in the world at 6,853 km, being shared by 11 riparian coun-
tries including Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Bu-
-0)$҂/# (*-/$ +0'$*!*)"*Ңң҂)-$/- Ңэыьєңҁ
The Nile River is divided into the White Nile, which originates in Jinja in Uganda, and the Blue
Nile, which originates in the Ethiopian Highlands. The Blue Nile meets the White Nile in Khar-
toum in Sudan. From thereon, they flow together to Egypt and the Mediterranean as shown
in Figure 1.2. Water stresses are prevalent in all of the Nile Basin countries due to increased
demand for water, population growth, transboundary water conflicts, and climate change.
The respective countries bordering this watershed need to find sustainable ways to work
together. They need to cooperate over mutual benefit-sharing of this body of water to ensure
the needs of current users, as well as future generations, without jeopardizing the ecological
integrity of the watershed.
Over the last few years, there has been an escalation in the turbulence and tensions in the
Nile River Basin. As one of the richest river basins in terms of history and heritage, it is also
one of the most conflicted river basins over trans-boundar y water needs. Currently there
are several issues plaguing the Nile River Basin and in particular the Blue Nile River Basin. To
begin, the construction of several infrastructure projects such as dams in Ethiopia like the
-)/#$*+$) )$..) (Ңң$)эыьь*)/# *- - /2 )/#$*+$) )4
on the Blue Nile. This dam is anticipated to reduce water to downstream countries such as
"4+/)0)ҁ)*/# -($./# $ (*)/# *- -*! )4)/#$*+$)
is anticipated to reduce water to Kenya and its people in Lake Turkana, as well as he Merowe
Dam in Sudan which is perceived to resettle and displace many Nubian Sudanese calling for
security concerns.
# . *)$..0 $./# **+ -/$1 -( 2*-&"- ( )/Ңң2#$#$(./*. /0+$'
Basin institutional framework to govern this transboundary river basin, which has been re-
jected by Egypt and Sudan. The third issue is shaped by new power brokers creating a new
political dynamic with the division of South Sudan from Sudan in 2011. In addition, there is
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 26 21-12-2022 11:31
27
Introduction
the Arab Spr ing with the convolution of the Egyptian Revolution in 2011 and how it may or may
not play a role in African integration. The Sudanese Revolution in 2019 and various political
dynamics around it have also altered the power dynamics in the region. Furthermore, there
were the Oromo prote sts in Ethiopia in 2018 and ethnic strife in vario us regions across Ethiopia.
The fourth set of issues come with the onset of climate change causing water scarcity, water
borne diseases, sea-level rises, and environmental degradation across the Nile River Basin.
Dams and infrastructure projects have garnered emotional sentiment for riparian nations;
ergo, disputes over these projects can also foster tensions amongst countries. This can be
. )/#-*0"#/# -)/#$*+$) )$..) (Ңң/#/#. )+ "" .)-
tional project that endows a sense of national pride for the country, similar to the High A swan
(Ңң҂2#$#+-*1$ . /# "4+/$)0$).2$/#/# . ). *! )/$*)'+-$ ҂ .2 ''
Ң*..''(эыэыңҁ
However, issues across this ba sin stem far deeper than mere national interests of water sharing
and natural resource management. They go de eper into issues of racism, ethnic discr imination
and post-colonial rule. Therefore, alternative means of cooperation through civic engage ment
and civic understanding are at the heart of cooperation in this basin. All of these impending
issues across the basin have created a sense of urgency to ease the tensions and create a
platform of peace dialogue for cooperation and collaboration.
As stakeholders, across the Nile Basin, come together to find a common identity that binds
/# (/* *((*)*4*!2/ -҂/# $' $1 -҂/# $ȥ - ) ./#/./ (!-*(/# $-&-
grounds and national interests can essentially be resolved. Water can potentially be the key
+*$)/$)$)$)"./& #*' -./*" /# -/*0) -./)#*2/# $-$ȥ - ) . .. )/$''4(&
them richer. Water then becomes a productive pathway for conf idence-building, cooperation
and conflict prevention through the binding streams of a common identity alongside under-
standing the various perceptions across the Nile River Basin.
Various factors throughout history have caused people across this watershed to cooperate
and collaborate. The objective of this research was to determine whether climate change,
with all its facets, could be the factor to enhance cooperation and collaboration amongst the
countries across the Nile River Basin, and in specific the Blue River Nile.
The Nile Basin is divided into three main sub-basins:
1. ,0/*-$''& .Ң")҂ )4҂)5)$҂0-0)$҂2)҂)ң҂
2. /#$*+$)+'/ 0Ҩ./ -)$' Ң/#$*+$҂0)҂"4+/҂*0/#0)҂-$/- ң
3. #-'#5'Ң*0/#0)҂")ңҢэыьєңҁ
1
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 27 21-12-2022 11:31
28 Ѹ
# ($)/-$0/-$ .*!/# $' $)'0 /# '0 $' Ң*)/-$0/$)"ѓѐ۞*!/# /*/'!'*2ң)
/# #$/ $' Ң*)/-$0/$)"ьѐ۞*!/# /*/'!'*2ң2#$# - / /# )/$- $' $1 -.$)ҁ
The Eastern Nile basin covers some 2,695,300 km2, which in turn is sub divided into four sub
basins that include the Main Nile, the Baro-Akobo-Sobat and White Nile, the Abbay/Blue Nile,
)/# & 5 Җ/-..#*2)$)$"0- ьҁэҢэыьѓңҁ# 4Ҩ'0 $' )$)$'
- /# (*./# 1$'4+*+0'/ ҂*0)/$)"ђє۞*!/# /*/'+*+0'/$*)*!/# ./ -)$' ҁ
# . /#( )/.*!/# '0 $' Ң4ң҂/-Ң & 55 ң҂)-*҂+-*0 -0)*ȥ/#/
*)/-$0/ . /2 )ѓѐҖєы۞*!/# /*/'))0'$' !'*2.҂2#$#$.*Ȩ )- ! -- /*./#
'0 $' 4./ (ҁ*2 1 -҂/# '0 $' Ң4ң) . )/*$./$)/$1 '4- .+*)$- /'4
/*/# . .*)'-$)+// -).҂ 3#$$/$)"' -- 4)2 /.+ ''.ҁ# '0 $' Ң4ң$.'.*
/# '-" ./*)/-$0/*-*!2/ -/*/# /*/'($)$' ҂*)/-$0/$)"ѐє۞*!/# /*/'2/ -!'*2
$)/# $' Ңэыьєңҁ# /-!'*2.*)'42#$' /# - $.-$)$)/#$*+$)$.*Ȩ )-$
0+(*- $)/# -4. .*)ҁ# /-$1 -*)/-$0/ .)1 -" ьэ۞*!/# /*/'2/ -
/*/# $)$' ҂2#$' /# -*Җ&***/.0Җ.$)*)/-$0/ .)1 -" *!ья۞*!/#
!'*2/*/# $)$' ..#*2)$)$"0- ьҁюҢэыьєңҁ
)/# .*+ *!/#$.- . -#҂/# " *"-+#$'*)/ 3 /$./# '0 $' Ң4ң.0Җ.$)҂.2 ''
as th e Main Ni le Sub- basin. This resear cher fo cused only o n the cou ntries of Egyp t, Suda n, and
/#$*+$/#/- 2$/#$)/# '0 $' $1 -.$)ҍ.2/ -.# ҁ#$.$.*++*. /*'' ' 1 )
*0)/-$ .*!/# $' $1 -.$)҂./# '0 $' $./# '-" ./*)/-$0/*-*!/# $' $1 -ҍ.
total volume of water, in addition to the fact that the majority of the tensions along the Nile
River stem from the conflicts within these three states of the Blue Nile River. As a result, the
geographical scope of this research will focus on the Blue Nile River Basin countries of Eg ypt,
Ethiopia, and Sudan.
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 28 21-12-2022 11:31
29
Introduction
Figure 1.2: +*!/# $' $1 -.$)2/ -.# Ңэыьєң
1
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 29 21-12-2022 11:31
30 Ѹ
Figure 1.3: +*!/# 1-$*0..0Җ.$).*!/# $' $1 -.$)Ңэыьєң
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 30 21-12-2022 11:31
31
Introduction
!
Figure 1.4: */'$' !'*2$)$''$*)0$( / -.ҢңҨ4 -Ңэыьєң
The impacts of climate change on the Blue Nile River Basin vary from state to state and even
from region to region within each state. These changes are because adaptation to water scar-
$/4$.1 -4$ȥ - )/!-*(+//$*)/*!'**$)"ҁ*2 1 -҂. 1 -'*)'0.$*).) (
based on the current state of water management on the Blue Nile as well as developmental
needs.
Approximately 230 million people live in the three countries of the Blue Nile River Basin with
++-*3$(/ '4ьёы($''$*)+ *+' '$1$)"$- /'42$/#$)/# '0 $' $1 -.$)Ңэыьєңҁ
An increase in water demand will be heightened by an increase in irrigation demands along
with a high degree of uncer tainty about the flow of t he Nile. Moreover, increase in precipitation
variability is e xpected which ultimately leads to the increase in flood frequency and intensity,
as well as the degradation of soil surface and erosion potential of watersheds. This will lead
to an increase of sediment discharge in rivers and reservoirs that will lead to a decrease in
- . -1*$-'$! /$( ҂$)1 ./( )/+ -$*+4*ȥ) - . *!()" ' 2/ -- .*0- .ҁ
# +-*' (2$/#/# $' $1 -!'*2$./# 0) -/$)/4*!/# +- $/$*).!-*('*')
"$*)''$(/ * '.Ң)ңҁ*( +- $/$*)..0"" .//#/2$/#/# $)- .
in global temperatures there will be increased evaporation in the Nile River, thus less water
supply and ultimately water s carcity. Other predictions suggest that with the increas ed evap-
oration due to global warming in more hot arid climates like Egypt and Sudan there will be
increased precipitation in the Ethiopian highlands. Such an increase in precipitation will lead
/*$)- . -0)*ȥ$)/# $' $1 -!'*2.*2)./- (+*/ )/$''40.$)"!'**.//# .2)
(2# - 4"4+/(4)*/ ' /**+ 2$/#/#$.$)- . -0)*ȥҢэыьѓңҁ
1
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 31 21-12-2022 11:31
32 Ѹ
The quagmire is that these two scenarios require completely opposite approaches for adapta-
/$*)҄*) )/$'.!'**.)$)- . -0)*ȥ҄/# */# -$.2/ -.-$/4)+*..$' -*0"#/ҁ
The Blue Nile countries are all developing countries, based on the UN Human Development
Index, with limited f inancial capabilities in relation to adaptation; hence, ext remely vulnerable
to the most sensitive of climatic changes. Adapting to worst case scenarios of both the wet
and dry conditions as is currently predicted, is not practically or financially feasible. Thus,
// -()" ( )/.# ( .)) ȥ /$1 +//$*)./-/ "4) /* .. .. )
put in place.
Climate variability a nd change have also been identifie d as key drivers of ecosystem he alth and
/# "-*2/#).+- $)"*!2/ -Җ- '/ $. . .ҁ0()# '/#2$'' 1 -. '4ȥ /
with the spread of diseases such as diarrhea or leptospirosis in flooded areas. To summarize,
''$' .$)-$+-$)*0)/-$ .2$'' ȥ / 4'$(/ #)" )2$'') /*!$).*'0-
tions to tackle this issue.
ѸҁѺ
THE BLUE NILE RIVER COUNTRIES
In the context of re source wars and how climate change is a threat to human security, the IPCC
ѐҢэыьяң.// ./#/Ҏ/# +- . ) *!-*0./$)./$/0/$*).)()" ()4*!/# . -$1'-$ .
.0#/#/#0(). 0-$/4$.)*/. 1 - '4 -* ҁҏ*1 -)) ./-0/0- )$)./$/0/$*)'
frameworks that allow for such robust institutions to take place within the basin must be
examined. It is impor tant to understand what the institutional setup of the Nile River Basin is,
in reference to these three countr ies to better understand the gaps to ensure human securit y.
It is necessary to look at the institutional framework that governs the Nile River Basin as a
whole and the Blue Nile more specifically, as well as each of the respective three countries of
the Blue Nile in terms of water management. There is cur rently no basin-wide legal or institu-
tional framework for all the riparian countries. However, the absence of a formal basin-wide
agreement does not prohibit informal agreements. As formal agreements, such as signed trea-
ties or a collective basin framework, are not the only options for informational arrangements
of cooperation like bilateral trade or exchange of goods and information by researchers, civil
society, etc. In this context, the definition of a formal agreement would be a legal document
Ң$ҁ ҁ/- /4ңҁ#$.*0( )/ /2 )/# *0)/-$ .2*0'$// /# ''*/$*)*!2/ -)
since this type of treaty is not a driver, it would be an outcome of an interaction bet ween the
states. It is important to note that a treaty may not be enough to produce cooperation be-
tween countries, but in fact, it may be a path that lays the way for a more desirable outcome
of cooperation.
“Whatever power holds the Upper Nile Valley must, by the mere force of its geographical sit-
0/$*)҂*($)/ "4+/ҁ-*(/# )*)2-.'$.0-4Ҥ-$/$.# ) -'0-$)"*'*)$'-0' ҥ
( $/#$.%*/*'**&Ȩ -/# ++ -$' ҃!$-.//*(& $/) 0/-'҂/# )/*(& $/-$/$.#ҏ
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 32 21-12-2022 11:31
33
Introduction
Ң*-/ -эыьяңҁ#$.$./# " *"-+#$'- '$/4*!/# '0 $' *0)/-$ .)/# ($)*% /$1
*!/# -$/$.#+*2 -.$)-Ȩ$)"*'*)$'"- ( )/./*./$.!4/# $-) .ҁ
# /2*(*./$(+*-/)//- /$ .!*-($)"/# . *!/*4ҍ.2/ -''*/$*).)*!/#
conflict date back to colonial times. The 1929 agreement between Eg ypt and Britain allowed
"4+//# -$"#//*0. яѓ$''$*)0$ / -.Ңң)0)я*!2/ -+ -4 -ҁ#
$' .$)- /4*!ьєѐє /2 )"4+/)0)./$+0'/ ./#/"4+/ҍ..#- *!/# -$1 -$.
ѐѐҁѐҨ4 -)0)ҍ.$.ьѓҁѐҨ4 -ҁ#$.''*/$*)*!2/ -2.. *))"- -
ment betwe en the countries of Egypt and Sudan in 1959 to divide the surface water of the Nile
$1 -/#/- # /# (Ң*-/ -эыьяңҁ# 0-- )//*/'))0'!'*2*!/# -$1 -$.ѓяҨ
4 -Ң*-/ -эыьяңҁ# (+ -*-$' '..$ *!/#$*+$ 2..**ȥ ) 4"4+/ҍ./# )
- .$ )/.. -ҍ. 3'0.$*)*!/#$*+$!-*(/# ьєѐє$' / -"- ( )//#/# *-")$5
a complete separation of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church from the Orthodox Coptic Church
$)' 3)-$҂"4+/҂ )$)"ьёыы4 -.*!$)./$/0/$*)'(--$" Ң/ -*-'эыьяңҁ)ьєєє
/# $' .$))$/$/$1 Ңң2.$)$/$/ 2$/#-*"- ( )//*"*1 -))()" /#
Nile River Basin amongst the 11 riparian countries.
In 2010, the five upstream countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, R wanda, and Tanzania signed a
**+ -/$1 -( 2*-&"- ( )/Ңң/*0. (*- 2/ -!-*(/# $' ҁ0-0)$'/ -%*$)
in 2011. This was strongly opposed by Egypt and Sudan based on their interests to maintain
/# #$./*-$'0. *!/# $' 2/ -. *) 3$./$)""- ( )/.Ң$)-эыььңҁ# ) 2
"- ( )/҂*) ȥ /$1 ҂$./#*0"#//*- +' /# ҁ
Several political events in 2011 added to the complexity of the situation and the tensions
between the states on the Blue Nile River. The Arab Spring and the uprising in Egypt in Janu-
-4эыьь0. /# "*1 -)( )/$)"4+//* $./-/ !-*(/# $' ) "*/$/$*).Ң2!$&
2015). Sudan was divided in to two countries in 2011 with the new South Sudan covering a
long reach of the White Nile. However, it is still not clear if South Sudan is include d in the 1959
/- /4-$"#/./*/# $' ҍ.!'*2*-)*/Ң2!$&эыьѐңҁ'.*҂$)эыьь/#$*+$./-/ /# /
*)./-0/$*)*!/# -)/#$*+$) )$..) ( Ңң0)$'/ -''42$/#*0//# *)-
sent of downstream countries Egypt and Sudan as their governments were in the middle of
political turbulences.
It is more important to note here that b oth Egypt and Sudan are physically water scarce coun-
tries with a lack of water available per capita within its borders. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is an e co-
nomically water scarce country with a lack of finances to access the water that it has available
in its borders, therefore, adding to the tensions on the Blue Nile as competition over water
resources for each of the countries continues.
In November 2014, Egypt signe d an agreement with South Sudan “to develop water resources
in the South Sudan state and a joint cooperation strategy that would preserve the historic
1
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34 Ѹ
-$"#/*!"4+/ҏҢ2!$&эыьѐңҁ#$.#. )$)/ -+- / .*0/#0)# -$)"/*/# ьєѐє
- /4/*2-."4+/)0)ҍ.-$"#/!0'.#- *!/# $' 2/ -Ң2!$&эыьѐңҁ
On 23 March 2015, the Egyptian, Ethiopian, and Sudanese leaders met in Khar toum to sign
)"- ( )/- ! -- /*./# '-/$*)*!-$)$+' .Ң*ң҂2#$#2.. ).+*.$/$1
step forward towards cooperation. Yet, the DoP still fails to present the joint management
of infrastructure projects and how to solidify cooperation between the three countries. As
2!$&Ңэыьєң.// .҂Ҏ/# .$")$)"*!/# '-/$*)*!-$)$+' .Ң*ң*)/# -)/#$*+$)
)$..) (Ңң+-*% /*)эю-#эыьѐ$)#-/*0(҂0)#.- / . ). *!
optimism among politicians and scholars, and the hope of progress towards regional coop-
eration between the Eastern Nile countries of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan”. Furthermore, the
signing of the DoP was followed by other steps to init iate bilateral and/or trilateral cooperation
beyond water resources and implement agreements that had been signed before.
In October 2016, Egypt and Sudan signe d a new strategic partner ship agreement that covered
the areas of agriculture, transportation, commerce, tourism and education. Other bilateral
agreements on energy transfer and trade from Ethiopia to Sudan were made using the in-
/ -*)) /$*).!-*(/# -)/#$*+$) )$..) (Ңң+-*% /ҁ)4*!/# .
bilateral agreements have emerged, meanwhile the trilateral track between the three states
is still ongoing.
)+-$'эыьє҂- .$ )/(-'.#$-2. +*. 0 /*/# + *+' ҍ.- 1*'0/$*))
transitionar y council has since been leading the country with policies that may or may not
$"- ..!-*(/# !*-( -- .$ )/ҍ.+- 1$*0.''$) .ҁ
The institutional framework that currently sets the stage for the governance of the Blue Nile
countries is shown in Table 1.1. It is impor tant to note that the empirical data and findings of
this research were obtained during the period of 2016-2018 in a political climate that was s till
turbulent among the three countries, nevertheless they were on a path of discussions and
willingness to cooperate.
Tab le 1 .1 : Timeline of sign ificant events o utlining the instit utional framewor k of the Blue Nile River Ba sin
• Treaty betwe en Britain and Ethiopia in 1902
• Nile water agreement in 1929
• Egypt and the Sudan Nile Agreement in 1959 for utilization of the Nile water s
• -( 2*-&!*- ) -'**+ -/$*) /2 )" 4+/)/#$*+$$)ьєєю
• $' .$))$/$/$1 Ңң!*-( $)ьєєє
• ./ -)$' #)$' "$*)'ȥ$ Ңң*! ./'$.# $)$)эыыэ
• **+ -/$1 -( 2*-&"- ( )/Ңң /2 )$' .$)*0)/-$ ..$") $)эыьы4ѐ
countries
• '-/$*)*!-$)$+' .Ң*ң.$") /2 )"4+/҂0))/#$*+$$)эыьѐ
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 34 21-12-2022 11:31
35
Introduction
Besides the se regional and bilateral agreement s that are present between the Blue Nile River
countries, there are international legal agreements that bind the countries to certain condi-
tions under internat ional water law. For instance, according to Article 1a of the UN Watercours-
.*)1 )/$*)Ңң*!ьєєђ҂ )/ - $)/*!*- $)эыья҂++'$ ./*/# 0. .*!$)/ -)/$*)'
watercourses and of their waters for purposes other than navigation. Article 1a of the con-
vention includes measures of protection, preservation and management related to the uses
*!/#*. 2/ -*0-. .)/# $-2/ -.Ң-/$' ь҂*)*+ ңҢьєєђңҁ
The core principles of international water law include 1) equitable and reasonable use, and 2)
the no-harm rule. These two principles are strongly linked to a third principle deriving from
general international law: the general obligation to cooper ate which include article 8, Ar ticle 2,
)-/$' ђ*!/# *-$)"'4Ңьєєђңҁ# +-$)$+' *! ,0$/' )- .*)'
use implies equality of rights among the riparian states. Article 4c specifically mentions the
duty to “establish individually or jointly a comprehensive utilization plan taking into account
+- . )/)!0/0- ) .*!҂ ) '/ -)/$1 2/ -.*0- .!*-҂/# -$+-$)// .ҏҢ
1997). The principle of equitable and reasonable use requires for its pr actical implementation
. Җ4Җ. .. ..( )/*!!/*-.Ңьєєђңҁ
# )/# -Ȩ-/$' .Ң- /$' ѐҁэ ҂-/$' ьыҁэң҂+-*1$ )$)$/$1 '$./*!!/*-.
2$/#)*+-$*-$/4..$") ҂ 3 +/ !*-1$/'#0()) .Ңьєєђңҁ# /2*$)./-0( )/.
- ,0$- /#/Ҍ.+ $'- "-ҍ "$1 )/*/# . ) .҂( )$)"/#/Ҏ.0ȥ$$ )/2/ -/*.0./$)
life, including both drinking water and water required for production of food” has to be pro-
vided. It has to be noted that Article 6.1a of the UNWC mentions climate and climatic impacts
*)2/ -$)/# '$./*!!/*-.- ' 1)//* ,0$/' )- .*)' 0/$'$5/$*)Ңьєєђңҁ
The second core principle of international water law is the no-harm rule. This principle rep-
resents an obligation of due diligence; meaning that the harm is not caused intentionally or
by neglect. Article 8, article 2.6, and article 7 also note that another binding obligation on
/# -$+-$).// .$./# " ) -'*'$"/$*)/***+ -/ Ңьыыђңҁ**+ -/$*)(*)"
the riparian states is instrumental to full compliance with the other two obligations, which
$)'0 ./# 3#)" *!/.*+/ !-*(/# -$.'$(/ "- ( )/Ң 3+'$$/$)-/$' .
ьэ)ью*!-$.'$(/ "- ( )/ңҢ/ +#)эыьђңҁ#$' /# )* Җ#-(-0' * .)*/++ -
as really relevant in the case of adaptation to climate change, equitable and reasonable use
( -" .. )/-'Ң/ +#)эыьђңҁ#$.''*2.!' 3$$'$/4)- ,0 ./$)"/#//# *) -)
states conside r various factors, wh ether related to the climatic impact s on the water resources,
# ) ҂/# ,0$/' 0/$'$5/$*)*!/#*. 2/ -.Ң/ +#)эыьђңҁ
The development of the international legal framework for climate change started with the
adoption of the UNFCCC at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The UNFCCC, of which
all parties are present, discussed and adopted in Paris in December 2015 at the Conference
*!-/$ .ӊэьҢэьң'$(/ "- ( )/!*-/# ./$'$5/$*)*!"- )#*0. ".*) )-
trations in the atmosphere. The UNFCCC and the Par is Climate Agreement give consideration
1
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 35 21-12-2022 11:31
36 Ѹ
to water in Article 4.1e, which commits parties to cooperate in preparing for adaptation to
the impacts of climate change; develop and elaborate appropriate and integrated plans for
coastal zone management, water resources and agriculture, and for the protection and re-
#$'$//$*)*!- .҂+-/$0'-'4$)!-$҂ȥ / 4-*0"#/) . -/$!$/$*)҂.2 ''.
!'**.Ң/ +#)эыьђңҁ
There are several international frameworks and conventions to which the Blue Nile countries
are members. These agreements required the states to cooperate over the use of water, and
particularly in and around the theme of climate change. These legal conventions, both inter-
nationally, domestically and regionally, set the stage for the governance of the Blue Nile River
countries to cooperate and collaborate.
Ѹҁѻ
In order to present the structure of this thesis, it is important to underline that its research
design was based on the research questions, with the main one being:
How can Climate Change be an opportunity for cooperation in the Blue River Nile Basin in
relation to the WEF Nexus?
The sub-questions are:
1. Who are the key stakeholders on the Blue Nile River Basin?
2. What is the nature of the inter action betwee n the key stakeholders on t he Blue Nile River Basin?
3. What are the drivers for cooperation on the Blue Nile River Basin?
4. #/- /# +*/ )/$' ȥ /.*!'$(/ #)" *)/# '0 $' $1 -.$)҈
Some questions are answered several times in various chapters but were approached from a
$ȥ - )//# ( $) #$)./) ҁ#$.$. !$) $)(*- /$'$)#+/ -юҁ# - &*2)
below explains which chapter addresse s each variable in this respect. At the beginning of each
chapter there is a brief summary of the previous chapters and work done to recapitulate was
occurred in order to move forward in the research.
Chap ter 1 in trodu ced the subjec t of th is thes is in it s hist orica l conte xt. Al so, it review ed how t he
research desig n was implemented. Chapter 2 contains the liter ature review on the topic of con-
flict and cooperation on international river basins and the impacts from climate change. The
author delved into tr ansboundary water management to explore various river basins around
the globe for examples of drivers for cooperation. Lastly, it presented the theoretical frame-
2*-&*!/#$.- . -#. *)$-0(#$ҍ.Ңэыьың-).*0)-4/ -.)/ -/$*). 30
Ңң(/-$32# - *)!'$/)**+ -/$*)*Җ 3$./$)4)($)/0- *!$)/ -/$*).ҁ
In this context, a driver for cooperation is a trigger, action or event that propels the interac-
tions between states to be cooperative or conflictive. The various drivers for cooperation are
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 36 21-12-2022 11:31
37
Introduction
explored in chapter 2. Drivers for conflict are related to population growth, natural resource
capture and scarcity, and environmental degradation. Meanwhile, the driver s to cooperation
$)'0 .+ /.*).$)- "$( .҂$1 -.$)-")$5/$*).Ңҍ.ң҂$)/ -)/$*)'))/$*)'
.҂$)/ -)/$*)''2҂.$ ) ҂)/ -)/$*)'$)) )./$/0/$*).Ңҍ.ң.0#./# *-'
Bank, avoidance of conf lict, benefit shar ing, the need for stabilit y, and civil societ y and popular
support . Although, the literature has identif ied the drivers for conflic t separate from the driv-
-.!*-**+ -/$*)҂/#$.- . -#2$''*).$ -/# (%*$)/. /҄#$../ (.!-*($-0(#$ҍ.
(/-$3++-*#$)2#$#*)!'$/)**+ -/$*)* 3$./Ң$-0(#$эыьыңҁ*'**&
at these two separately, including their drivers would be too reductionist in the analysis. The
overall set of drivers could ultimately swing the pendulum in the direction of cooperative and
collaborative interactions or more conflictive ones. This is dependent on the actors and how
they choose to utilize that driver as an opportunity for cooperation and/or conflict.
These drivers were categorized in thematic areas: political, economic, environmental, and
soc ial. D ue to th e vast ness o f some o f thes e driv ers, m ethod ologi cally t hey we re expl ored u sing
all the various methods of this research but are analyzed separately within the chapters. The
process of exploring the drivers was an iterative process with several cycles.
Chapter 3 is about the m ethodology. It clarified the r esearch objectives and que stions, concep-
tualize these questions, and oper ationalize the key variables used. It introduced and justified
the methods selected and used to per form the empirical part of the research. Chapter 3 clar-
ified the process of analysis and the iterative process of this research to ensure accuracy and
validity at all stages of the research process. This researcher employed several methods for
data collection and analysis as each research question requires an approach of its own. This
researcher employed three methods: document review, interviews, and surveys.
#- . -#,0 ./$*)- ,0$- .$ȥ - )/( /#*.ҁ$"0- я.#*2./# ($)1-$' .*!/#
thesis which will be discussed in detail in Chapter 3. Chapters 4 to 7 of the thesis aim to con-
tribute to answer ing one or more of the research questions while focusing on one of the main
1-$' .Ң'$(/ #)" ҂)/0- *!$)/ -/$*).҂)-$1 -.!*-**+ -/$*)ңҁ#$.- &*2)
was designed to demonstrate how the chapters were divided by thematic topics with respect
to the variables and hence each chapter uses several methods to explore its thematic topic
respectively. Chapters 4 to 7 present the operationalization of each variable and the empirical
observations, while Chapter 8 contains the synthesis of the thesis.
1
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 37 21-12-2022 11:31
38 Ѹ
The key concepts identifie d in the literature review are include d in the theoretical framework,
categorized according to type, and coded accordingly. The following groups were defined:
1. Drivers for action
2. Nature of interaction and modes of conflict/cooperation
3. '$(/ #)" ȥ /.
Each of the three groups were broken down to key concepts with specific end codes for each
aspect to be operationalized for data collection purposes. Meanwhile, the categorization of
the variables is based on the literature review. The fir st set of variables is the drivers for action
which have emerged from the literature, as demonstrated in chapter 2, and is broken down
into economic, environmental, social and political drivers. The second variable is the nature
of interactions, which emerged from the literature, as demonstrated in chapter 2. The third
1-$' $.'$(/ #)" ȥ /.҂2#$#$./# $(+ /0.*)/# -$1 -./*ȥ //# )/0- *!
interactions. This is shown in figure 1.5.
Figure 1.5: Conceptual model of relations
Through the lens of stakeholder mapping the following research questions will be addressed
in chapter 4. Chapter 4 discusses the various stakeholders on the Blue Nile River Basin and
their level of influence on the overall process of cooperation. This discussion is based on
the literature, as well as on empirical findings from inter views and surveys. A stakeholder
mapping was then developed to unders tand the various relationships between these actors.
This was also meant to identify the main actors, the potential new ac tors to emerge and their
influence on the over all process. In this chapter, the social driver of stakeholder s was explored
and analyzed. The stakeholder groups will be further examined in later chapters 5-7 to see if
they will come in to complement government actions on climate adaptation for cooperation
on the Blue Nile.
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 38 21-12-2022 11:31
39
Introduction
Chapter 4: Stakeholder mapping of various actors along the Blue Nile
• . -#0 ./$*)ь$.)'45 ҃#*- /# & 4./& #*' -.*)/# '0 $' ҈
О Methods employed include document review as well as empirical data
from interviews and surveys on the importance of various key stakeholders.
О A stakeholder mapping tool was employed yED1 to map the level of
influence of the various stakeholders.
• . -#0 ./$*)ю$. 3+'$) ))'45 ҃#/- /# -$1 -.!*-**+ -/$*)
on the Blue Nile?
О Only the social drivers that encompass the stakeholders were ana
lyzed here in this chapter.
• The variable of Drivers for Action, specifically social drivers, were analyzed.
Chapter 5 addressed the nature of interac tions between the countries from a historical stand-
point, while also building on the empirics to determine how they have evolved and how they
are currently moving in a cer tain direction. The nature of inte ractions is the dependent v ariable
of the research; thus, this chapter explored the key question of how this variable changes over
/$( )2# /# -/#/#)" ) 3+'$) 41-$/$*)$)/# $) + ) )/.Ң-$1 -.ңҁ
This was designed to answer the research question regarding the nature of interactions be-
tween the countries and analyzes the trajectory in which they are moving. This was done by
utilizing the TWINS matrix, which is par t of the theoretical framework presented in chapter 2
Ң$-0(#$эыьыңҁ/0/$'$5 ./# (+$-$'!$)$)".!-*(/# $)/ - 1$ 2.).0-1 4.҂.2 ''.
document analysis to fur ther understand t he relationships of these state s and how to progress.
Chapter 5: Nature of Interactions on the Blue Nile:
• . -#0 ./$*)э2. 3+'$) ))'45 ҃#/$./# )/0- *!/# $)/ -/$*)
between the key stakeholders on the Blue Nile?
О This was done by looking at the nature of inter actions from a historical standpoint
and how it has evolved and changed over the last few decades by applying the
TWINS matrix.
О Utilizing the empirical data collected, an analysis for the current and expected
nature of interactions is then done.
• . -#0 ./$*)ю2.)'45 ҃#/- /# -$1 -.!*-**+ -/$*)*)/# '0 $' ҈
О Here the drivers were analyzed based on the empirics from the interviews and
surveys, as well as document analysis.
• The variable Nature of Interaction was analyzed as a function of the variable drivers for
conflict and cooperation.
1
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 39 21-12-2022 11:31
40 Ѹ
Chapter 6 of this research contains the results of a vulnerability assessment of the Blue Nile
on climate change impacts under the WEF Nexus. It became apparent that hydropower devel-
opment was the main priority for Ethiopia in using Nile water for energy security. For Sudan,
however, the main priority was agriculture and food security. On the other hand, for Egypt it
was w ater se curit y for de velopme nt. By unders tanding th e main pr iorit ies of ea ch of th ree Blu e
$' *0)/-$ .$)- '/$*)/*/# '0 $' ҍ.2/ -.҂)++-*#/* '2$/#/# . +-$*-$/$ .
) )1$.$*) ҁ#$.++-*# )/$' 0/$'$5$)"/# / -Җ) -"4Җ**Ңң 30.!*-
2$)Җ2$) ) !$/.#-$)"(*)".//# .// .ҁ # *) +/ *!/# / -Җ) -"4Җ**Ңң
Nexus is a framework that allows policymakers to move away from looking at resources in
.$'*.҂/# - !*- ҂+ -($//$)")++-*#/#/- 0 ./- Җ*ȥ.)0$'..4) -"$ .-*..
. /*-.Ң$ҁ ҁ҂/# . /*-.*!2/ -҂ ) -"4҂)!**ңҁ
According to the Water-Energy-Food organization, the “Nexus approach highlights the inter-
dependencies between achieving water, energy and food security for human well-being, e.
g. basics ser vices and economic development, while ensuring ecologically sustainable use of
globally essential resources. It is based on an understanding of the synergies and regulated
) "*/$/$*)*!!$-/- Җ*ȥ. /2 )*(+ /$)"0. .*!2/ -҂')) ) -"4Җ- '/ - -
.*0- .ҁҏҢэыьєңҁ#$.++-*#''*2./# - /* -*..Җ. /*-'$)/ "-/ + -.+ /$1
that looks at the three supply securities of water, energy, and food as interdependent and
requiring coordination. It can also be applied to a particular ecosystem or a water body, such
as a river, to better understand how its ecosystem ser vices are used, and not just considering
the silo of water of that river. This approach will be applied on the Blue Nile River Basin to
better understand the interlinkages of these sectors on the various countries that use this
river specif ically. This is essential since the main priority areas for each of the three countries
$)- '/$*)/*/# $' ҍ.2/ -./#/2.+- 1$*0.'4*0/'$) $)'0 / -!*-"4+/҂) -"4
for Ethiopia, and Food for S udan, thus making WEF Nexus relevant for the B lue Nile River Basin.
The research in this chapter first examined the national government plans by the various
relevant ministries of each of the three countries mentioned in relation to national water,
energy, and agriculture plans. Moreover, climate change plans and target s for mitigation and
adaptation that have been developed and adopted by the respective governments will be
included, too. This chapter examined whe ther the various domestic plans are aligned in ter ms
of development goals and synchronicit y. It then further examined whether the national plans
consider the upstream and downstream countries of the Blue Nile. This chapter utilized the
method of document analysis of the relevant documents to then scrutinize the situation with
respect to the three countries in terms of climate change impacts.
The second se ction in this chapter explored the WEF Nexus and how it impacts the countries in
relation to climate change. Within the context of th is research the impacts of climate change on
#*!/# /#- '0 $' $1 -.$)*0)/-$ .0) -/# ' ).*!/# / -Җ) -"4Җ**Ңң
Nexus will be explored. It is vital to mention that this research will not ignore the tremendous
impacts on the Blue Nile by other sectors including health, migration, tourism, biodiversity,
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 40 21-12-2022 11:31
41
Introduction
/ҁ*2 1 -҂!*-/# .*+ *!/#$.- . -#$/2$'' 3($) #*2'$(/ #)" ȥ /./#$.
sub-basin within the context of the WEF Nexus. Although exploring the WEF- C may be limiting
to other sectors, it does provide a platform of in-depth discussion around the highest pr iority
sectors within the three countries when it comes to the Nile River. The methods used in this
chapter include document analysis from various national plans and strategies in each of the
three countries, as well as literature around the WEF Nexus within the countries.
The third section of this chapter used the vulnerability assessment under the WEF Nexus in
section two, to validate these findings with the empirical data collected from the interviews
and surveys with the various stakeholders. This exercise was implemented to better under-
stand the environmental drivers specifically for cooperation and how they impact climate
#)" ҁ# . )1$-*)( )/'-$1 -.2 - )'45 /#-*0"#/# / -Җ) -"4Җ** Ңң
Nexus approach on the Blue Nile Basin to determine the interlinkages and dependencies on
one another. The researcher explored the environmental drivers through the mutual benefit
sharing approach of win -win solutions with respect to the interlinkages that appear. The sec-
tion examined the impacts of climate change on water, energy and foo d in the three countries
based on the empirical findings from the surveys and interviews to determine if they are
aligned with those presented in the previous sections of this chapter from the national plans
and from literature. This process of triangulation of data from the literature, and the empirics
of interviews and surveys was necessary to determine the validit y of the data obtained along-
.$ /# 1-$*0.(*'$/$ .*!/# 30.)#*2'$(/ #)" $.҂*-$.)*/҂ȥ /$)"
these various sectors accordingly.
Chapter 6: A Vulnerabilit y Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Blue Nile Ri ver under
the WEF Nexus
• . -#0 ./$*)ю2.)'45 ҃#/- /# -$1 -.!*-**+ -/$*)*)/# '0 $' ҈
ОHere the environmental driver was analyzed based on the empirics from the
interviews and surveys.
• . -#0 ./$*)я2. 3+'$) )).2 - ҃#/- /# +*/ )/$' ȥ /.)Ҩ*-
influences of climate change on the Blue Nile?
ОThis chapter employed document review of existing plans by the countries, and
/# (+$-$.Ң$)/ -1$ 2.).0-1 4.ң/* / -($) 2#//# $(+/.2*0' *!
'$(/ #)" Ң.ңҁ
О(+'*4$)"/# / -Җ) -"4Җ**Ңң 30.!*-)'4.$.*!**+ -/$*)ҁ
• # 1-$' *!'$(/ #)" ȥ /.$.)'45 ҁ
• The variable of Drivers for Cooperation is analyzed
Chapter 7 of this researcher explored how climate change can be an enabler for cooperation
on the Blue Nile River Basin. She examined if climate change has entered into the discussions
and negotiations on the Blue Nile on a regional level or not. While chapter 6 explored how
climate change is being discussed nationally within the national plans, this chapter examined
1
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 41 21-12-2022 11:31
42 Ѹ
if climate change is being discuss ed on the regional level within the Blue Nile tr ilateral process
through their negotiations and meetings. The research findings clarified if and when climate
change enters the discussion on a regional level, and thus how it may be utilized as an enabler
for cooperation between the three countries. The methods utilized include interviews and
surveys and the findings from the empirics were presented and analyzed accordingly.
The second section of this chapter presents the findings of the empirics in relation to the all
the drivers assessed for cooperation, and the potential solutions as drivers for cooperation.
This was based upon the respondents and how they saw cooperation moving forward with
tangible projec ts and solutions. Based on t he drivers that were identifie d in Chapter 2 and then
explored in the t heoretical framework , these drivers were fur ther analyzed with the inter views
and surveys. The aim of the analysis was to determine the feasibility of the various drivers
for cooperation on the Blue Nile River Basin. It looked at the variability of the independent
1-$' Ң-$1 -.!*-/$*)ң)/# ȥ /*!/# $(+ /0.Ң'$(/ #)" ң*)/#$.1-$' ҁ
The third section of this chapter investigated the enabling factors referred to as tools, neces-
sary for that collaboration to t ake place across the Blue Nile and what needs to be present be -
tween the co untries to have an enabling environment for coop eration to take place. It provided
insight into what is neede d to set the stage for cooperation and the neces sary tools needed to
allow it to flourish. The findings were based on the empirics from the interviews and surveys.
Chapter 7: Climate Change as an enabler for cooperation on the Blue Nile:
• . -#0 ./$*)ю2.)'45 ҃#/- /# -$1 -.!*-**+ -/$*)*)/# '0 $' ҈
• . -#0 ./$*)я2.)'45 ҃#/- /# +*/ )/$' ȥ /.)Ҩ*-$)!'0 ) .*!
climate change on the Blue Nile?
• # 1-$' *!'$(/ #)" ȥ /.2.)'45 ҁ
• The variable of Drivers for Cooperation was analyzed
• The methods employed were interviews and surveys; therefore, the results of the empir-
ical data were analyzed to address the research questions.
Chapter 8 is a synthesis and analysis of the empirical findings and data obtained from this
research. The researcher developed a framework for cooper ation on the Blue Nile and in what
modalities and forms that cooperation could take amongst the states.
Chapter 9 is the concluding chapter of the research which summarizes the overall findings in
addition to presenting the framework to the reader. It explored the limitations of the research
and provides recommendations for f urther research to be done to complement the work done
here as a contribution to science and research.
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 42 21-12-2022 11:31
43
Introduction
ѸҁѼ
This research is unique in its multi-disciplinary approach of the problem at hand. As Zeitoun
/'ҁҢэыьєң+0/$/Ҏ/# - #. )(0#- . -#*) 0) -./)$)"/# $*+#4.$'+-
-( / -.*!/# -$1 -ҍ..$).҂0/'$//' *!/#$.2*-&#. )-2)0+*)/# .*$'.$ )
community. The first necess ary steps would be for social re searchers to make more use of the
technical repor ts, to study power politics, and to incorporate complexit y science.”
The researcher of this thesis has an Environmental Engineering background and tackled the
issues of this thesis, from a technical standpoint by looking at the hydrology of the Basin with
all the technical engineering solutions that may be posed. Nevertheless, they pursue this
thesis under a social science discipline while incorporating the socio- economic, political, and
environmental factors into consideration. This multi-disciplinary approach yielded a more
comprehensive understanding of the problem of cooperation on the Blue Nile Basin and how
to best tackle it.
This researcher, a national from one of the Blue Nile countries, has been observing the ne-
"*/$/$*).*)/# '0 $' $'$" )/'4.$) эыььȨ - ./'$.#$)"/#$)&Җ/)&҂'' /#
/ -)./$/0/ *!/# $' Ңң1, to tackle the water problems of the Nile from a civil society
standpoint through track 3 diplomacy. This has allowed the researcher to view a unique per-
spective for cooperation that can work for all par ties. This researcher has been active for f ive
years from 2009 to 2014 in the UNFCCC climate change negotiations lobbying governments
to reduce their emissions. Through this process within the UNFCCC negotiations, as well as
/# - . -# -ҍ. ) 1*-.2$/#$)/# /#$)&Җ/)&*)/# '0 $' ҂$/ ( 1$ )//#//#
technical solutions for cooperation on the Blue Nile were available. However, the political will
and social and behavioral issues to be able to deal with climate change in this context were
considerably lacking. Consequently, exploring this research through the social sciences lens,
2#$' 0/$'$5$)"/# - . -# -ҍ./ #)$'&"-*0).) )1$-*)( )/' )"$) -+-*1$
# -0)$,0 + -.+ /$1 .ҁ$/$*)''4҂2#/(& ./#$.- . -#$ȥ - )/$.$/.$'$/4/**-
serve the environmental integrity of the Blue Nile Basin under climate change in comparison
to popular studies conducted on the Blue Nile examining cooperation that tended to explore
economic means of mutual benefit sharing, solely. Based on the above, the impor tance of this
research as a unique contribution to scientific is evident.
Another distinct feature of this research also stems from the innovative way of formulating
the question of “What is the nature of interaction between the Blue Nile countries?”. The re-
search addresses this by looking at how the nature of interactions evolves over time through
the TWINS matrix, but by also adapting this matrix to the contextual situation. This is done
4)'45$)"/# 1*'0/$*)*!/# . $)/ - /$*).. *)/# -$1 -.)#*2/# 4ȥ /*)
1 / -)./$/0/ *!/# $' Ңң **&+" ҃#//+.҃ҨҨ222ҁ! **&ҁ*(Ҩ/ -)./$/0/ *-#-
eNile/
1
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 43 21-12-2022 11:31
44 Ѹ
another. Looking at established theories and frameworks from a contextual perspective adds
an innovation to the question posed.
In the early 180 0s, there was a legendar y mountain range across Afric a known as the Mountains
of Kong that were thought to begin in West Africa and continue across Africa to East Afr ica. At
/# /$( /# 42 - /#*0"#//* /# .*0- *!/# #$/ $' Ң.. / /'ҁьєєьңҁ*-/# '*)-
gest time, the source of the White Nile was thought to originate from these mountain ranges.
This was not disproved until the late 1880s when geographers were able rewrite the maps to
correct this myth. This proof from the Nile Basin itself indicates how the fur thering of science
is necessar y to debunk old myths and how adding new data is esse ntial. This is another aspect
of why and how this research stands out in it s contribution to science in this domain. It helps
/* 0)&(*- - )/(4/#*!#*2'$(/ #)" $.Ҍ/#- /(0'/$+'$ -ҍ4*0( )/$)"
that, in fact, climate change can also be an opportunity for multiple gains and benef it sharing.
Incorporating various stakeholders in the empirical research is also unique and needed for
/#$.- . -#ҁ.$-0(#$Ңэыьѓң.// .҂/#//# Ҏ '$/ $.$*)(& -.ҏ- (*./*Ȩ )
*) -) 2$/#/# / #)$'$..0 .*!/- Җ*ȥ.)' 1 *0//# (*- (-"$)'$5 1*$ .ҁ
More participatory approaches are imperative, which include all stakeholders in true conflict
transformation on a river basin. Many of the more marginalized voices of civil society were
heard in this research to ensure a participatory approach can be achieved. This is explored
in chapter 4 in depth, and again in chapter 8, to understand the perspectives of stakeholders
within the empirical data.
Sev eral fa cets c ontrib ute to the di stinc tiven ess of t his res earch a nd can o nly be c ongrue nt with
the fact that it aims to provide an original perspective in contrast to the plethora of research
on the Nile River Basin regarding water conflict and cooper ation. Considering climate change
as an opport unity for cooperation, rather than just a “threat multiplier” for conflict, pla ces this
research in a unique position. This researcher hopes to have contributed a valid and original
piece of research to science and to the Blue Nile River basin at large.
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 44 21-12-2022 11:31
45
Introduction
1
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ѹ
Literature Review
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 47 21-12-2022 11:31
48 ѹ
ѹҁѸ
# $' $1 -.$)ҍ.0/$'$/-$)0. .҂)$/. *'*"$'1'0 .(0./ *).$ - /* // -
0) -./)/# -$1 -ҍ.$(+*-/) ҁ*- *1 -҂/#$.*).$ -/$*).#*0' !0-/# - 3/ )
to all those that the Nile services with its water. Techno-scientific approaches to looking at
/# $' *Ȩ )'**&/24./**((*$!4)/0- ҁ)"$) -$)".*'0/$*)./#/''*2!*-Ҍ,0$&
!$3ҍ/*+'"0$)" )1$-*)( )/'+-*' (.҂.0#.2/ -.-$/4҂') "-/$*)҂) 1 )
climate change, fail to understand the ecological integrity of the river body and the ecosys-
tems in which it resides. This also includes the social relationships that are bound to the river
through cultural means that consolidate their identity through it. This is prevalent in some
nations and cultures, more than others, in the Blue Nile Basin, but all essentially do identify
with the river as a source of their identity. Therefore, by focusing on nature-based solutions
it will eventually create a more holistic approach of inclusivity for the ecosystem and help to
ensure its integrity when tackling climate change adaptation.
In Chapter 1 a research que stion was posed on how to explore climate change as an oppor tuni-
ty for cooperation on the Blue Nile River Basin and in which context that cooperation can take
place. The institutional framework of the Nile was explored and its current limitations. In this
chapter, the results of an exploration of the liter ature on climate change as an opportunity for
cooperation are presented. Fur thermore, the literature included on conflict and cooperation
with respect to resource wars, and in particular, water wars, as well as literature on climate
change and human security were reviewed. This chapter presents a conceptual theoretical
framework based on the theories and literature presented in it as a basis for moving forward
with respect to the research methods to be presented in Chapter 3. This theoretical frame-
work drew on theories selected from the literature review that per tain to the main research
question. The framework was designed to tackle the research question in an innovative and
insightful manner and yield new scientific insights with practical results for the stakeholders
in the Blue Nile River Basin countries.
# '$/ -/0- - 1$ 22.*) 4'**&$)"/- . -#*)/# Ҍ'0 $' ҍ)Ҍ./ -)$' ҍ$)
- ! - ) /*Ҍ'$(/ #)" ҍ҂Ҍ2/ -Җ ) -"4Җ!**ҍ҂Ҍ*)!'$/ҍ)Ҍ**+ -/$*)ҍҁ/)'*) '$/-
-/0- 2.'.*- . -# $)- '/$*)/*Ҍ'$(/ #)" ҍ)Ҍ*)!'$/ҍ)Ҩ*-Ҍ**+ -/$*)ҍ҂
.2 ''.Ҍ/-).*0)-42/ -*)!'$/.ҍ҂Ҍ/-).*0)- 42/ -**+ -/$*)ҍҁ# '$/ -/0-
was collected t hat was relevant to the search terms. This was gathere d from library database s
including Scopus, Web of Science, JSTOR, and S cienceDirect both in the Netherlands at Eras-
(0.)$1 -.$/4*/ / -(Ңң҂.2 ''.$)"4+///# ( -$))$1 -.$/ 4$)$-*Ңң҂
which allowed for research in both English and Arabic to be shown. Doing so provided a wide
scope of research produced from both Egypt and Sudan in their local languages, Arabic, but
did not provide for research produced in Ethiopia in Amharic.
However, it is important to note that the majority of the literature that was produced and
found on this research question is in English, and published in international peer-reviewed,
academic journal s. Whereas, the literature that was found in Arabic was mos tly research pre-
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 48 21-12-2022 11:31
49
Literature Review
sented at local scientific conferences and was not published in academic journals. Moreover,
other Arabic sources are journal articles associated with large state newspapers such as the
Egyptian newspaper Al Ahram3. Nevertheless, this s till enabled this researcher to bring in the
perspectives of local scientists from Egypt and Sudan.
Several techniques were employed to conduct this literature review to answer the research
question. Aside from a desktop review of literature available on the internet, a snowballing
technique was used while communicating with experts within the field. This was done by
speaking to experts from UNESCO-IHE4$) 'Ȩ2#*#1 *)0/ 3/ ).$1 - . -#*)
the Nile and on water cooperation.
This researcher also spoke with experts from other institutes working on the Nile including
SIWI5, Deltares6, the Wor ld Bank7҂8҂)/# *)*)/ - . -#-*0+9. A snowballing
technique was used to acquire literature on the topic that may be relevant and useful. Lastly,
another technique this researcher employed to ensure gathering a comprehensive literature
review was to attend conferences related to the topic. Therefore, this researcher had the
opportunity to hear more about what was written, and by whom, in the field of water coop-
eration, the Nile, climate change, and transboundar y water management.
Between the years of 2012-2019, this researcher attended over 20 conferences, UN conven-
tions, and scient ific workshops related to the topics that are referenced in the CV in the Annex.
Furthermore, she has been observing the Blue Nile negotiations diligently since 2011; this
*( .Ȩ - ./'$.#$)"/#$)&Җ/)&/*/&' /# 2/ -+-*' (.*!/# $' ҂!-*($1$'
society standpoint, through track 3 diplomacy. As a result of these techniques for gather-
ing relevant and appropriate literature to the topic, a comprehensive literature review was
conducted, the results of which are included in this chapter. From the literature gathered, a
theoretic al framework was selec ted and used to build the research s trategy which is presente d
in Chapter 3 of this thesis.
3 Ahram newspaper. http://gate.ahram.org.eg/
4 UNE SCO-IHE for Water Education. http://www.un-ihe.org/
5 Swedish International Water Institute. https://www.siwi.org/
6 Deltares. https://www.deltares.nl/en/
7 # *-')&-*0+ҁhttps://www.worldbank.org/
8 ҁhttps://www.giz.de/en/html/index.html
9 *)*)/ - . -#-*0+ҁhttps://lwrg.wordpress.com/
2
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50 ѹ
ѹҁѹ
ѹҁѹҁѸ Ҍҍ
)ьєёѓ҂-- //-$)*$) /# / -(Ҏ-" 4*!/# *((*).ҏ$)#$.-/$' /#/- !' /
upon how the grant ing of public access to a shared resource, whether it be a water bo dy, land,
$-҂ /ҁ҂2$'' 3+'*$/ 4/# + *+' ҁ ) ҂ !- *($)Ҍ*((*).ҍ-$)".-0$)/*''
Ң-$)ьєёѓңҁ+ ) ../*- .*0- .. )/$''4$) )/$1$5 .*1 -0. ҄/#0.҂ "-/$*)
and demise of that resource. This can be seen with several water bodies on a global level, as
well as the phenomena of climate change, which allow for the global commons in this case
“air” to be polluted by many nations around the world. Hardin stated that we need to either
pri vatize this s hared reso urce for bet ter reg ulation of it , or have v ery strong government con-
tro l of it. With sh ared r esour ces tha t are wit hin a na tional sett ing, th is is ea sier wi th gove rnment
regulations stepping in to control the use. However, with transboundary shared resources,
such as the Nile River Basin, the governance and regulation become more complicated. When
it comes to the global comm ons of air pollution and, consequently, climate change, the control
and regulation becomes existentially more complex. Moreover, entities such as the United
/$*).-( 2*-&*)'$(/ #)" *)1 )/$*)Ңң- . &$)"/*!$)24./*- "-
ulate, control, mitigate, and thus, to adapt towards the impending impact s of climate change
on our global ecosystems.
Elinor Ostrom later contributed to this debate by stating that the governing of the Commons
should be done by giving the power back to the people and communities that depend on that
- .*0- Ңьєєыңҁ# !*0. *)Ҍ*((*)$)"ҍ.$)./$/0/$*)'-Ȩ$)"҂2# - 4҂.# 0. $)-
./$/0/$*)'.+ /.$)# -*$*Җ*'*"$'4./ (.Ңң-( 2*-&/*''*2/# + *+' $)
*((0)$/4/*0/$'$5 /# - .*0- $).0./$)' ()) -Ң./-*(эыыєңҁ# 3+'*- #*2
common pool resource problems are sometimes solved by voluntary organizations rather
than by coercive states. Such examples include communal tenure of meadows and forests,
$--$"/$*)*((0)$/$ .)*/# -2/ --$"#/.҂)! $.# -$ .ҁ./-*(ҍ./# *-4 .. )/$''4'**&.
at common pool resources in the absence of a central government.
In commoning, it is impor tant to consider how to balance the individual interests and the col-
lective intere sts. Many of the strug gles of governing the commons can be hegemonic, or they
can be transformative, depending on who and how its applied. It is important to not look at
the commons in isolation, but more at the process of commoning and how it happens. Com-
moning can essentially bridge the debate between environmental justice, post colonialism,
and social/cultural practices.
Political ecology is the study of the relationships between political, economic and social
factors with environmental issues and changes. In essence, this politicizes environmental
issues and phenomena. At the root of this stems environmental conflicts, as well as: degrada-
tion and marginalization, conservation and control, and environmental identities and social
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 50 21-12-2022 11:31
51
Literature Review
movements, with specif ic emphasis on the developing wor ld. It was or iginally coined in 1935
by Frank Thone, and later developed further by Paul Robbins in 2004. The main assumptions
in political ecology emphasize that:
• #)" .$)/# )1$-*)( )/*)*/ȥ /.*$ /4$)#*(*" )*0.24҃+*'$/$'҂.*$'҂
) *)*($$ȥ - ) .*0)/!*-0) 1 )$./-$0/$*)*!*./.) ) !$/.ҁ
• )4#)" $) )1$-*)( )/'*)$/$*).(0./ȥ //# +*'$/$') *)*($.//0.,0*ҁ
• the unequal distribution of costs and benefits and the reinforcing or reducing of pre-ex-
isting inequalities has political implications in terms of the altered power relationships
that then result.
0'*$)... -/ /#//# $.$+'$) #.Ҍ)*-(/$1 0) -./)$)"/#//# - - 1 -4
'$& '4 // -҂' ..* -$1 ҂' .. 3+'*$//$1 ҂)(*- .0./$)' 24.*!*$)"/#$)".ҍҢ*-
bins 2004). From his assumptions, political ecology can be used to:
• inform policymakers and organizations of the complexities surrounding e nvironment and
development, thereby, contributing to better environmental governance.
• understand the decisions that communities make about the natural environment in the
context of their political environment, economic pressure, and societal regulations.
• '**&/#*20) ,0'- '/$*).$))(*)" .*$ /$ .ȥ / /# )/0-' )1$-*)( )/҂
especially in context of governmental policies.
This researcher e xplored environmental conflict, primarily climate change and how it exacer-
bates water resources on the Blue Nile River Basin. This was done by using the framework by
which the analysis of this research was conducted. The lens of political ecology was used to
determine how the Nile is being referre d to as an ecosystem that has been politicized over de-
cades of tensions b etween transboundar y states of this river body. In doing so, this researcher
reviewed how the environmental integr ity of this river basin has been discussed and whether
it can be a platform of dialogue amongst the many stakeholders in the basin.
In late 2020, a movement to legalize and formalize the “rights of nature” and in particular
“rights of the ri ver” gained momentum amongst leading environmental or ganizations globally
including International River s. It explored ancient notions that nature possesses basic rights.
With the mounting threats to rivers and freshwaters including pollution, loss of biodiversity,
and extinction of animal and plant species, the world is reaching a critical point of no return
due to climate change. The “rights of nature” approach aims to achieve a transformational
change and a new lens of look ing at the ecosystem. Several e xamples globally, were mentioned
for adopting laws to legalize the “rights of nature” approach including in New Zealand and
Colombia. In Uganda, the source of the White Nile River, there was an extensive campaign
4$1$'.*$ /4"-*0+./*+0.#!*-/#$.҂)$)эыьє")*ȥ$$''4 )/ )1$-*)( )/'
legislation that explicitly enshrined, “Rights of Nature,” in Section 4 of the National Environ-
( )//эыьєҢ/$*)')1$-*)( )//эыьєңҁ#$.(*1 ( )/*ȥ -.)'/ -)/$1 ++-*#
2
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 51 21-12-2022 11:31
52 ѹ
)+-$"(.#$Ȩ/*"$1$)"/# -$1 -1*$ )' "'1*/ //# $.$*)Җ(&$)"/'
and could prove to be an important missing component in the setup for cooperation that is
needed along the Blue Nile River Basin to ensure environmental sustainability of these waters.
ѹҁѹҁѹ
Environmental conflict is at the root of political ecolog y and how it manifests itself in political
interactions b etween states, as well as national and sub-national actors over natural resourc-
es. Environmental degradation and the loss of natural resources is leading to the scarcity of
resources in more areas around the globe. More recently, the phenomenon of conf licts being
linked to environmental is sues, such as climate change and water, are leading states to pon der
how national securit y is linked to water, food, energ y and climate change. Population growth
is also an important factor to consider with dwindling resources.
*-( - - /-4Җ ) -')$Җ(**).$$)эыыђ/#/Ҏ#)" .$)*0- )1$-*)( )/)
the resulting upheavals - from droughts to inundated coastal areas to loss of arable lands -
- '$& '4/* *( (%*--$1 -*!2-)*)!'$/ҏҢ҂эыыђңҁ$($'-'4҂2#$' /# +**-
are undoubtedly vulnerable to the direct impacts of climate change, the most far-reaching
ȥ /.*!"'*'2-($)"(4 $)$- /*). ,0 ) ..0#.+*'$/$'$)./$'$/4҂ *)*($
weakness, food insecurity and large-scale migration. A 2007 report from International Alert,
found that 46 countries, home to 2.7 billion people, would experience a “high risk of violent
*)!'$/ҏҢэыыђңҁ#$.#++ )..- .0'/*!'$(/ #)" $)/ -/$)"2$/# *)*($҂.*$'
)+*'$/$'+-*' (.Ң)/ -)/$*)'' -/эыыђңҁ )2#$' ҂$) !0-/# -ѐё*0)/-$ .2$/#
ьҁэ$''$*)$)#$/)/. Ҏ/# $)./$/0/$*).*!"*1 -)( )/2$''#1 "- /$ȥ$0'/4/&$)"/#
./-$)*!'$(/ #)" *)/*+*!''/# $-*/# -0-- )/#'' )" .ҏҢ)/ -)/$*)'' -/эыыђңҁ
However, climate change and competition over resources are rarely, if ever, the only cause of
1$*' )/*)!'$/ҁ# 4- // -0) -./**.Ҍ/#- /(0'/$+'$ -.ҍ/#/2$''҂$)+-/$ ҂$)/ --
/*/#2$/#*/# --$.&-$1 -.)2$/#$1 -. .*0- .*!10') -$'$/4ҁ#'Ңэыыёң$/ .
range of evidence for the argument that scarcity can increase the risk of violent conflict. This
includes quantitative studies that sug gest population size and density are significant conflict
-$.&!/*-.Ң#'эыыёңҁ )2#$' ҂.//$./$'2*-&$)$/ ./#/*0)/-$ .#$"#'4 + ) )/
on natural resources, as well as those e xperiencing high rates of defores tation and soil degra-
dation or low availability of arable land and freshwater per capita, have higher than average
-$.&.*!*)!'$/Ң#'эыыёңҁ
./04$)/# *0-)'*!/0- Ң# /'ҁэыьєң҂*)'0 /#/'$(/ 1-$$'$/4)Ҩ*-
change was only a mode st contributor to armed conflict since the Se cond World War. Instead,
factors like low socioeconomic development, low state capacity, and intergroup inequality
are emerging as vastly more consequential. However, the authors point out that whether the
1./$ȥ - ) .$).*$* *)*($ 1 '*+( )/).// +$/4-*../# 2*-'- $)+-/
//-$0/' /*'$(/$*)$/$*).$../$''$)) *!!0-/# -- . -#Ң# /'ҁэыьєңҁ#
163936_LamaElHatow_BNW-proef.indd 52 21-12-2022 11:31
53
Literature Review
authors st ated that there is generally a consensus about how “researchers seek to identif y the
ȥ /*!'$(/ *)*)!'$/҃4'**&$)"/Ҍ.#*&.ҍҘ 1$/$*).!-*()*-(''$(/$*)$/$*).
Ҥ# /21 .҂-*0"#/.҂!'**$)"҂ /ҁҥҘ).. ..$)"/# $- ȥ /.!*-*)!'$//$ȥ - )/
.+/$')/ (+*-'.' .ҏҁ# /'ҁҢэыьєң-"0 /#/'/#*0"#҂/#$.( /#*$.1'$҂$/
ignores the impact of broad variation in baseline climatic conditions across countries, which
may be causing us to significantly underes timate the total influence of climate on conflict. As
) . )!-*($"0- эҁь҂-* . Ңэыьєң 1 '*+ *) +/0'!-( 2*-&/*// (+//*
/-&/# $- /)$)$- / ȥ /.*!'$(/ #)" *)- .*0- 1$'$'$/4)/# +*/ )/$'
conflict and cooperation dynamics. Here it can be seen that there is no causal link between
'$(/ #)" )*)!'$/)Ҩ*-**+ -/$*)ҁ/# -҂$/$.Ҍ/#- /(0'/$+'$ -ҍ/#/ )#) .
and induces the already existing situation towards one side of the pendulum or the other. As
Froese stated “whether humans react cooperatively or with conflict to these dwindling re-
.*0- .ҏ$.)ҍ/ .4/*+- $/)$/- '$ .Ҏ*)$ȥ - )/+-( / -.҂.0#./# $-10') -$'$/4
*-- .$'$ ) ҏҢэыьєңҁ !0-/# - /#//# Ҏ'$)&. /2 )'$(/ )*)!'$/- *Ȩ )
$)$- /ҍ( )2#$' #0()ҍ.+/$'$/4Ҏ/*'$(/ #)" $.. ).$/$1 /**)!'$/ҏҢэыьєңҁ
Figure 2.1: *) +/0'!-( 2*-&*!$- /)$)$- / ȥ /.*!'$(/ #)" *)- .*0- 1$'$'$/4
)+*/ )/$'*)!'$/)**+ -/$*)4)($.Ң-* . эыьєң
*( -Җ$3*)Ңьєєяң$/ . 1 )/.$)/# ) "'$1 -1'' 4$)ьєѓє2# - # -"0 /#/
population pressure and land degradation led to agricultural shortfalls. This was tackled by
the Mauritanian government through constructing a new dam, which provided hydropower
) 3+) $--$"/$*)Ң*( -Җ$3*)ьєєяңҁ*2 1 -҂)/$$+/$*)*!/# (' /*.#-+
$)- . $)')1'0 .'*)"/# -$1 -)&ҁ*-$)"/**( -Җ$3*)Ңьєєяң҂Ҏ/# '$/ $)
Mauritania, which consis ts mainly of white Moors, then rewrote the legislation governing land
*2) -.#$+҂ ȥ /$1 '4-*"/$)"/# -$"#/.*! '&!-$)./**)/$)0 !-($)"҂# -$)"҂
and fishing along the Mauritanian riverbank”; in turn, this triggered ethnic conflict in both
0-$/)$)) $"#*-$)" ) "'Ң*( -Җ$3*)ьєєяңҁ
2
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54 ѹ
#$.*0'+*/ )/$''4 -"0 $)/# '0 $' $1 -.$)2$/#/# *)./-0/$*)*!/# -)
/#$*+$) )$..) (Ңң4/#$*+$ҁ$) /# *)./-0/$*)*!/# ($.0.$)"
tensions with downstream countries of Eg ypt and Sudan that can claim that the dam is a form
of resource capture that may also lead to conflict.
Understanding the linkages between climate change and conflict does not entail a direct
causal link. However, there is a growing confluence between fragility and vulnerability to cli-
(/ #)" 2# - ђы۞*!/# (*./'$(/ 10') -' *0)/-$ .- '.*$)/# (*./!-"$'
,0-/$' ҁ)$/$*)҂*)!'$/.)0) -($) /# - .$'$ ) *!*((0)$/$ ./*/# ȥ /.*!
climate change that will ensue.
Some studies have attributed the Arab Spring, including the uprising in Egypt in 2011, to cli-
(/ #)" Ң ($эыьюңҁ# . //-$0/$*).#1 )..*$/ 2$/#-$.$)"!**+-$ .
$)"4+/0 /*'&*!2# /!-*(!**$(+*-/.!-*(#$))0..$Ң ($эыьюңҁҎ"4+-
/$)+-*/ ./.$)эыьь )/ - *)+*'$/$') *)*($$../$.!/$*)ҏ.// . ($Ңэыьюңҁ
However, they add “that an integral part of this economic pressure was the global wheat
price, which more than doubled from $157 per metric ton in June 2010 to $326 per metric
/*)$) -0- 4эыььҏҢ ($эыьюңҁ# &