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Abstract

The 'stock concept' in fisheries science conforms to theoretical assumptions of stock assessment models, including negligible movement across stock boundaries, relatively homogeneous vital rates, and extensive mixing within stock areas. Best practices for representing population structure in stock assessment involve 1) interdisciplinary stock identification to delineate spatially discrete populations or more complex population structure; 2) stock boundaries that are aligned with the most plausible population structure; 3) spatially-explicit sampling, fleet structure or spatial structure in assessment models to account for heterogeneity, fishing patterns, and movement within stock areas; 4) routine stock composition sampling and analysis for spatially overlapping populations; and 5) simulation testing the performance of assessments with mis-specified or uncertain population structure. Practical assessment units that do not accurately represent population structure may not provide sufficient information to achieve fishery management objectives, so practical constraints should be addressed through iterative advances in routine stock identification, delineation of stocks to meet unit-stock assumptions, and stock assessment modeling.
Fisheries Research 262 (2023) 106650
Available online 11 February 2023
0165-7836/© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
Best practices for dening spatial boundaries and spatial structure in
stock assessment
Steven X. Cadrin
a
,
*
, Daniel R. Goethel
b
, Aaron Berger
c
, Ernesto Jardim
d
a
University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, School for Marine Science and Technology, Department of Fisheries Oceanography, 836 South Rodney French Boulevard, New
Bedford, MA 02744, USA
b
NOAA, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 17109 Point Lena Loop Road, Juneau, AK 99801, USA
c
NOAA, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2032 SE OSU Drive, Newport, OR 97365, USA
d
Marine Stewardship Council, 1 Snow Hill, London EC1A 2DH, UK
ARTICLE INFO
Keywords:
Fishery stock assessment
Stock identication
Spatial
Fleets
ABSTRACT
The ‘stock concept in sheries science conforms to theoretical assumptions of stock assessment models,
including negligible movement across stock boundaries, relatively homogeneous vital rates, and extensive
mixing within stock areas. Best practices for representing population structure in stock assessment involve 1)
interdisciplinary stock identication to delineate spatially discrete populations or more complex population
structure; 2) stock boundaries that are aligned with the most plausible population structure; 3) spatially-explicit
sampling, eet structure or spatial structure in assessment models to account for heterogeneity, shing patterns,
and movement within stock areas; 4) routine stock composition sampling and analysis for spatially overlapping
populations; and 5) simulation testing the performance of assessments with mis-specied or uncertain population
structure. Practical assessment units that do not accurately represent population structure may not provide
sufcient information to achieve shery management objectives, so practical constraints should be addressed
through iterative advances in routine stock identication, delineation of stocks to meet unit-stock assumptions,
and stock assessment modeling.
1. Introduction
The unit stock concept has been recognized as a theoretical
assumption of conventional stock assessment since the early stages of
sheries science (Cushing, 1968; Harden-Jones, 1968; Pauly, 1984;
Hilborn and Walters, 1992; Sinclair and Smith, 2002). Russells (1931)
initial derivations of sustainable yield and overshing began with the
assumption Let us simplify the problem down to its bare essentials by
considering a completely self-contained stock of sh of one particular kind
living in a large area which is systematically shed, and established the
axiom of the stock concept (Cushing, 1983). The population and shery
processes assumed in most stock assessment models continue to imply 1)
no movement of sh into or out of the stock area at any life stage, 2) vital
rates (somatic growth, maturity, natural mortality, and shing mortality
with selectivity) are relatively homogeneous within the stock area, and
3) individual sh mix extensively throughout the stock area (Cadrin,
2020). Although these are collectively referred to as ‘unit stock
assumptions, the assumptions relate to shing on biological population
units rather than the practically dened ‘stock.
A series of simulation experiments representing diverse sheries and
target species demonstrate that accurately accounting for population
structure and shing patterns in stock assessments can improve model
performance, and case studies in shery management demonstrate that
ignoring such structure can lead to misperceptions of stock status (Punt,
2019; Cadrin, 2020; Bosley et al., 2022). Therefore, an important aspect
of stock assessment is determining appropriate geographic boundaries to
dene the stock and patterns of spatial heterogeneity within the stock
area. Stock identication infers spatial population structure to delineate
stock boundaries that encompass discrete populations (e.g., Booke,
1981; Carvalho and Hauser, 1994). However, all biological populations
have some spatial heterogeneity, many have connectivity with adjacent
populations, some have geographic overlap with adjacent populations,
and subpopulations in a metapopulation are more extensively connected
at early or later life stages (Fig. 1). Population structure and major
* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: scadrin@umassd.edu (S.X. Cadrin), daniel.goethel@noaa.gov (D.R. Goethel), aaron.berger@noaa.gov (A. Berger), ernesto.jardim@msc.org
(E. Jardim).
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Fisheries Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/fishres
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shres.2023.106650
Received 7 December 2022; Received in revised form 3 February 2023; Accepted 4 February 2023
Fisheries Research 262 (2023) 106650
2
shing patterns can be represented by eet structure, spatial strata, or
continuous gradients within the stock area, and stock composition
analysis can be applied to mixed-population sheries to support
assessment of each population in the mixture (Punt et al., 2020).
Modeling approaches for representing population structure and
shing patterns vary widely among stock assessments, but most opera-
tional assessments that are used to support management advice assume a
unit stock with no spatial structure within the stock area (Berger et al.,
2017). Perspectives on the importance of stock identication for stock
assessment and shery management are diverse. At one extreme, which
is unfortunately common, population structure is ignored, or violations
of the unit stock assumption are casually dismissed because of practical
constraints. At the other extreme, Link et al. (2020) list movement,
migration and location as the rst major mechanism impacting marine
populations, followed by overshing and other processes. The 2018
workshop on spatial stock assessment models convened by the Center for
the Advancement of Population Assessment Methodology (CAPAM)
suggested a practical order of priorities for stock assessment: accurate
spatial modeling requires correct specication of all major features of pop-
ulation and shery dynamics (e.g., natural mortality, growth, selectivity),
because movement estimates are often confounded with estimates of
recruitment or mortality (Cadrin et al., 2020). More recently, the 2019
CAPAM workshop on next generation stock assessment models
concluded that a major challenge for any next-generation stock assessment
package is the set of extensions needed to assess stocks that do not satisfy the
‘well-mixed single-stockparadigm(Punt et al., 2020). Punt (2023) listed
the determination of stock structure hypotheses as the rst step in good
practices for conducting assessments. Although the importance of stock
structure may vary among sheries, and perceptions of its priority may
differ among scientists, population structure and eet structure are ex-
pected to be primary features of future stock assessment modeling.
Stock delineation has been notoriously political, because stock
boundaries largely determine who has management authority and ac-
cess to shery resources. Therefore, best scientic practices for dening
spatial boundaries, spatial structure, and eet structure in stock
assessment should consider biological reality, theoretical assumptions,
and practical solutions for meeting shery management objectives. As a
contribution to the CAPAM workshop on stock assessment good prac-
tices, this review was invited to summarize relevant literature, common
practice, best practice, and research recommendations for the related
topics of stock identication, delineating stock boundaries, accounting
for spatial structure within a stock area, and simulation testing mis-
specied population structure.
2. Background
Over the last two centuries, the theory and practice of stock assess-
ment and stock identication co-evolved (Cadrin and Secor, 2009).
Initial concepts of shery production relied heavily on ‘population
thinking to explain uctuations in sheries as the result of variable
production of discrete sh populations (Sinclair and Smith, 2002).
Cushing (1968) rened ‘the idea of a unit stockto describe dynamics of
self-sustaining populations, and Harden-Jones (1968) summarized that
"management stocks are considered to respond largely independently to the
effects of exploitation, because recruitment, growth and mortality within the
stock are of more signicance than emigration or immigration to the stock.
The importance of identifying and assessing self-sustaining stocks
increased after claims of national and international shery management
jurisdictions. When the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea allowed
for the establishment of exclusive economic zones (i.e., coastal nations
claiming jurisdiction for shery management) and the ‘high seas (i.e.,
outside of these jurisdictions), it provided for international agreements
to cooperatively manage stocks that cross jurisdictional boundaries (UN,
1982). ‘Transboundary stocks inhabit the exclusive zones of two or
Fig. 1. Seven general population structure scenarios, including larval connectivity (dashed arrows) or post-larval connectivity (solid arrows) among subpopulations
in a metapopulation.
S.X. Cadrin et al.
Fisheries Research 262 (2023) 106650
3
more coastal states, ‘straddling stocks extend from an exclusive zone
into the international high seas, and ‘highly migratory species move
among multiple exclusive zones and the high seas. The determination of
stocks that justify international shery management agreements has
been based on their biological characteristics, particularly their
geographic range and degree of mixing between exclusive zones and the
high seas, with recommendations to assess the entire range of trans-
boundary stocks (Gulland, 1980; FAO, 1994). Guidance for international
cooperation was provided by the Fish Stocks Agreement (UN, 1995),
including the requirement to assess straddling or highly migratory
stocks, implicitly as a unit stock. Even in situations where cooperative
management may not be needed (e.g., transboundary stocks with low
movement rates or low exploitation rates in each area), cooperative
stock assessment has been recognized as a good practice (Gulland, 1980;
Hilborn and Sibert, 1988; Caddy, 1997).
More recent technological advances led to the identication of
complex population structure for many species (Kerr et al., 2017). These
ndings, as well as increased spatial resolution of shery data and the
development of spatial methods for stock assessment, revived the
consideration of population structure in sheries science. The revival of
stock identication as a major feature of stock assessment is demon-
strated by its inclusion in the topics considered for improving methods
used in stock assessment and development of a good practices guide
(Punt, 2023).
2.1. Stock identication
The identication of self-sustaining shery stocks transitioned
through several stages of development. Traditional approaches included
conventional tagging, phenotypic variation, parasites as natural tags,
and spatiotemporal shing patterns (Marr, 1957). The study of poly-
morphic genetic markers revolutionized the ‘stock concept with an
emphasis on reproductive isolation (Booke, 1981). The next stage
involved a more holistic multi-disciplinary approach based on congru-
ence among methods (Pawson and Jennings, 1996; Coyle, 1997; Begg
and Waldman, 1999). The development of genomics, electronic telem-
etry, otolith chemistry, and otolith microstructure have supplemented
traditional approaches for more informative stock identication.
Traditional approaches to stock identication focused on results from a
single methodological approach, then multi-disciplinary evaluations
considered weight-of-evidence from several studies, and recent reviews
recognize the advantages of interdisciplinary inferences of spatial pop-
ulation structure (Cadrin et al., 2014). An inter-disciplinary approach to
stock identication considers the complementarity of methods in which
each method characterizes precise aspects of population structure. For
example, homogeneity of neutral genetic characters may not be
congruent with geographic patterns in phenotypic variation that result
from environmental differences among areas, but both are important for
stock identication, because persistent phenotypic differences can have
strong inuence on population dynamics.
Three interacting aspects of population structure are evaluated in
interdisciplinary stock identication: distribution, dispersal, and
geographic variation - but no single source of information can support
inferences of all three. Information on geographic distribution (e.g.,
shery monitoring, shery-independent surveys) can dene a species
range, spatial continuity, areas of high abundance, spawning areas,
nursery areas, and shing grounds for each eet. Connectivity is eval-
uated from information on dispersal of early life history stages (e.g.,
plankton surveys, bio-physical models) and movement of juveniles,
adolescents and adults from conventional tags, electronic telemetry or
‘natural tags(e.g., parasites, otolith chemistry). Geographic variation in
phenotypic characters, neutral genetic characters or those subject to
selection can inform patterns of population heterogeneity, lack of mix-
ing, reproductive isolation, or local adaptation. Spatial patterns in
neutral genetic characters indicate reproductive isolation among areas,
and differences in selected characters or phenotypic characters reect
both genetic and environmental differences. Some phenotypic traits (e.
g., growth rate, age at maturity) affect population dynamics more
directly than others (e.g., morphology), but any persistent geographic
variation in genetic or phenotypic characters should be considered in
stock identication because it indicates limited mixing among areas.
These complementary sources of information can be geographically
integrated to form inferences of plausible population structure,
including the identication of discrete populations for delineating stock
boundaries, identication of subpopulations to account for spatial
structure within stock areas, and identication of ner scale structure
that may be relevant to productivity, shery management and conser-
vation (e.g., behavioral contingents, spawning aggregations; Kerr et al.,
2010b).
2.2. Stock boundaries
Most stock assessments assume that the stock is a single discrete
population (Hilborn and Walters, 1992), but most assessment units were
delineated to encompass major shing grounds or jurisdiction, which
may not align with the spatial extent of biological populations that are
being shed. Therefore, stock identication is needed to conrm that
the entire biological population is within the stock area, there are not
multiple populations or sub-populations of the species in the stock area,
and there is negligible dispersal across boundaries or connectivity with
adjacent areas (Cadrin et al., 2014).
The amount of movement across a stock boundary that violates the
unit stock assumption cannot be generalized (Aldenberg, 1975), because
sensitivity to movement rate depends on the movement pattern, relative
population sizes, degree of reproductive mixing, and conservation sta-
tus. More precise denitions of ‘negligible movement across stock
boundaries requires stock-specic simulation to determine if observed
cross-boundary movements impact the performance of stock assessment
and shery management in the context of other vital rates and relative
abundance. For example, the larger eastern population of Atlantic
bluen tuna is less sensitive to movement and stock mixing than the
smaller western population (Morse et al., 2020). Caddy (1997) sug-
gested a threshold for cross-boundary dispersal as enough to produce a
+/10% error in perception of local biomass, but in some cases the
threshold may be smaller.
Movement patterns that involve post-spawning dispersal and natal
homing can produce a seasonal mixture of populations on feeding
grounds and in sheries (i.e., ‘overlap, Porch et al., 2001). This move-
ment pattern adds some seasonal immigrants to catches or excludes
some emigrants that are caught outside the stock area, thereby adding
noise to time series signals of year class strength, mortality, or selec-
tivity. For example, assessing mixed New Zealand snapper populations
as single unit stock could not account for spatial patterns in age
composition and growth, resulting in catch advice that was unsustain-
able for a depleted population in the mixture of populations being
harvested (Francis and McKenzie, 2015; Berger et al., 2017). Movement
patterns that result in reproductive mixing across a stock boundary (i.e.,
‘random movements or dispersions Gulland, 1980; ‘diffusion, Porch
et al., 2001) also add noise to year-class signals and the stock-recruit
relationship.
A common feature of marine shes and other animals is the rare
occurrence of much further-than-average movements (Secor, 2015),
which may draw attention to the extreme movements despite a rela-
tively low average movement rate. A few diffusive movements among
subpopulations over a generation can produce enough reproductive
mixing to homogenize genetic composition but may not disrupt de-
mographic independence for stock assessment (e.g., Haugen et al.,
2022). By contrast, movement of a few individuals may be more im-
pactful for identication of spatial units for threatened species (Eagle
et al., 2008).
Some populations can be effectively delineated by geography
because they are strongly associated with benthic habitat or stable
S.X. Cadrin et al.
Fisheries Research 262 (2023) 106650
4
oceanographic features and have discontinuous distributions among
populations. However, other populations are more spatially dynamic,
have less discrete boundaries with adjacent populations, or may have
some connectivity with other populations. Another challenge for rep-
resenting spatial population structure is the resolution and accuracy of
spatially explicit data used for stock assessment. Despite these chal-
lenges, stock boundaries should be based on stock identication and
approximately encompass populations to meet conventional stock
assessment model assumptions.
2.3. Spatial structure within stock areas
Population structure is a continuum in which the isolating mecha-
nisms that form separate populations within a species, and potentially
separate species over geological time, also form subpopulations within a
population in ecological time. Spatial structure within populations can
be discrete, with well-dened boundaries, or more continuous, resulting
in clinal variation and isolation by distance (Fig. 1). Although stock
boundaries should be based on biological population structure, spatial
patterns within a stock area can also be inuenced by shing. If mixing
is limited within a population, geographic shing patterns can create
differences in survival among areas (e.g., marine protected areas impose
strong spatial heterogeneity in shing mortality and potentially other
vital rates). Heterogeneity within stock areas violates dynamic pool
assumptions and complicates parameter estimation or management
reference points (Goethel and Berger, 2017). For example, heteroge-
neous habitats and spawning behaviors can inuence stock-recruit re-
lationships (Skoglund et al., 2022).
Geographic patterns within a stock can be represented by spatially
explicit samples, eet structure, or spatially structured assessment
models, but the impact of spatial patterns on stock assessment modeling
depends on the source of heterogeneity (e.g., shing patterns vs. bio-
logical patterns) and the movement rate among areas. Spatially explicit
sampling (e.g., stratied random or systematic designs) can characterize
sheries or stocks that have spatial patterns so that the contribution of
each area is appropriately weighted for a representative sample. How-
ever, population estimates based on weighted averages may not accu-
rately reect the combined results of local dynamics (Hart, 2001).
If spatial heterogeneity primarily results from shing patterns and
limited movement, eet structured sampling and modeling can help
account for spatial structure. Many integrated stock assessment models
assume constant selectivity, often within multi-year periods (Methot,
2023, this issue). Constant selectivity assumptions within periods may
be valid for eets that use the same shing gear but may not be valid for
sheries that use multiple shing gears. Therefore, eet stratication is
commonly applied to monitor landings, discards, size- or
age-composition, catch rate indices, and economic information to sup-
port eet-based management (e.g., Lennert-Cody et al., 2010, 2013;
Ulrich et al., 2012; Frawley et al., 2022). Fleet structure within an in-
tegrated stock assessment can greatly improve estimates of selectivity
(Punt et al., 2014). Fleets are largely identied by shing location, so
eet structure in a stock assessment can account for spatiotemporal
shing patterns as well as some spatial heterogeneity in the sh popu-
lation (Berger et al., 2012; Waterhouse et al., 2014; Hurtado-Ferro et al.,
2015). However, substantial movement or heterogeneity may require
spatially structured assessment models (Goethel et al., 2023, this issue).
If spatial structure involves reproductively isolated populations or
partially isolated subpopulations, information on stock composition is
needed to estimate their relative contributions to the mixed-population
shery and stock over time (Utter and Ryman, 1993). Unfortunately, the
term ‘sub-stock has various denitions in the sheries literature, with
different implications for stock assessment models. For example, Punt
(2019) used the term to describe stock components that have extensive
reproductive mixing with other stock components, but others use the
term to describe reproductively isolated populations within a stock area
(e.g., Frank and Brickman, 2000; Sterner, 2007; Lindegren et al., 2013).
In this paper, we attempt to distinguish terminology for biological units
(species, populations, metapopulations, subpopulations, behavioral
contingents, spawning aggregations) from practical units (jurisdiction,
stock, shing ground, statistical reporting area, sampling strata, model
strata) to avoid the common implication that practical units accurately
represent biological reality.
2.4. Simulation testing
Simulation analyses were initially applied to spatially complex
sheries to understand the implications of population structure (e.g.,
Beverton and Holt, 1957; Ricker, 1958; MacCall, 1990; Kerr et al.,
2010a). These heuristic simulations provided the framework for
simulation-estimation studies that evaluate the performance of rela-
tively simple estimation models for accurately representing complex
populations and shing patterns (e.g., Aldenberg, 1975; Porch et al.,
1998; Berger et al., 2017). Simulation has also emerged as an integrative
tool for interdisciplinary stock identication by conditioning operating
models on information from several methodological approaches (e.g.,
Kerr and Goethel, 2014).
Operating models for simulation testing were initially conditioned
on generic ‘sh-like population parameters with simple biological
structure (e.g., two subpopulations of equal size) with uniform move-
ment rates (e.g., Aldenberg, 1975). These relatively simple simulations
were designed to make general inferences about the effect of population
structure on stock assessment. More recently, simulation-estimation
studies and management strategy evaluation have been more precisely
conditioned to represent specic sheries (e.g., Deroba et al., 2015; Punt
et al., 2016). Simulation of spatially complex populations can evaluate
the robustness of stock assessments in the context of uncertain popula-
tion structure and demonstrate the risks of violating unit stock as-
sumptions for specic sheries (e.g., Punt, 2019; Berger et al., 2021;
Bosley et al., 2022).
3. Common practice
3.1. Stock identication
Stock assessment reports describe stock boundaries, and most pro-
vide a justication for the stock area delineation and spatial strata, often
with a summary of the available information on spatial population
structure. The scientic process for providing this information varies
among regional shery management organizations. When population
structure is identied as a major source of uncertainty in a stock
assessment, or the assessment model exhibits diagnostic problems sug-
gesting mis-specied stock structure, some organizations host a work-
shop to review the available information on stock identity and form
recommendations for spatial assessment units (e.g., ICCAT, 2001; ICES,
2009, 2020, 2022b; Quinn et al., 2011; WPFMC, 2014; Moore et al.,
2020a). Some organizations have standing expert groups to review and
update information on population structure of specic stocks and to
recommend revised stock denitions to assessment working groups (e.
g., ICES, 2022a). Other organizations recently added routine stock
identication workshops into their stock assessment process in advance
of data and model workshops to dene the most plausible stock
boundaries based on the available information to meet the needs of the
shery management system (e.g., SEDAR, 2018, 2020, 2021; Fig. 2).
Finally, some stock assessments have specic terms of reference to
investigate spatial population structure (e.g., NEFSC, 2012, 2020; Punt
et al., 2019). These standing committees, workshops or terms of refer-
ence within a stock assessment require broader expertise than typical
stock assessment working groups or peer reviews.
Many stock assessment documents report that little information is
available on stock identity. However, basic information on the species
(e.g., geographic range, distribution patterns, early life history; www.
shbase.org), the shery (e.g., shing grounds, seasonality), and data
S.X. Cadrin et al.
Fisheries Research 262 (2023) 106650
5
collected for stock assessment (e.g., spatial patterns in size or age
composition, size-at-age, maturity-at-age) can be used to investigate
putative stock structure (e.g., Begg and Waldman, 1999; Lennert-Cody
et al., 2010, 2013). Therefore, every routine stock assessment offers an
opportunity to review the information available and recommend future
research to support iterative improvements.
3.2. Stock boundaries
The most common sequence of events dening stock boundaries is an
initial claim of management jurisdiction for sheries in an area, the
collection of data for sheries in the jurisdiction, and the development of
stock assessments for target species in the area or discrete shing
grounds within the area. As a result, spatial boundaries of many stock
assessments do not adequately represent population structure, because
there was no consideration of population structure in the initial stock
denition. Stock identication can either conrm that the management
unit is a population or that stock boundaries do not conform to unit stock
assumptions. Dening or re-dening the spatial extent of stock assess-
ment is needed in advance of data compilation or model development.
Unfortunately, limited spatial resolution of historical shery data often
constrains the denition of stock boundaries and strata (e.g., ICES, 2020,
2022b). Stock denition is often a practical compromise between sci-
entists and shery managers so that the spatial unit of assessment is
consistent with the management unit.
Some stock boundaries have been revised based on new perspectives
of population structure, but many more stock boundaries are maintained
despite their known misspecication (e.g., Reiss et al., 2009; Kerr et al.,
2017; Ommer and Perry, 2022). Common practice is to assess the
management unit and ignore model assumptions that are violated when
spatial data are not available to support the assessment of a discrete
population, management jurisdiction precludes the management of a
unit stock, or population structure is too complex to meet unit-stock
assumptions. As a result, many assessment units include portions of a
larger population, multiple discrete populations, subpopulations of the
same species, or even multiple species (Cadrin, 2020). Considering the
large number of potentially mis-specied stock boundaries, poor per-
formance of spatially mis-specied assessment models, and shery
failures resulting from mis-specied population structure, it is reason-
able to conclude that many stock assessments can be improved by
revising the stock boundary to meet unit stock assumptions.
Some stock assessments account for movement of sh across stock
boundaries by adjusting the value of assumed natural mortality, M
(ICES, 2021), or as process error in total survival or natural mortality
(Frisk et al., 2008; Aldrin et al., 2019; Nielsen and Berg, 2023, this
issue). Emigration may have similar effects as mortality on changes in
abundance over time, and immigration can have a similar result as a
lower mortality rate, but aliasing movement as mortality ignores the
form of movement (e.g., sh that leave the stock area but return to
spawn). Although an assumption of increased natural mortality may
account for emigration in survival predictions, the two processes have
different effects on management reference points and catch projections
(Goethel and Berger, 2017). The history of stock assessment has trended
toward more accurate model specication, but the ‘M-agic of aliasing
movement as mortality deliberately mis-species one process (natural
mortality) to account for misspecication of another process (move-
ment) or represents a nonrandom process (movement) with random
process error. Therefore, given the management implications of these
implicit assumptions regarding connectivity, it is not recommended as
an appropriate tool for addressing spatial processes.
3.3. Spatial structure within stock areas
The majority of stock assessments assume no spatial structure within
the stock area. For example, a survey of U.S. stock assessment scientists
indicated that most (83%) assessments assumed no spatial structure, but
there was evidence of spatial structure for most of those stocks (Berger
et al., 2017). In common with other structural features of assessment
models (e.g., age, sex, eet), spatial structure requires spatially explicit
data. Fortunately, data from shery monitoring or shery-independent
surveys are spatially explicit or stratied to represent the stock or sh-
ery through stratied estimates or spatiotemporal analysis (e.g., Currie
et al., 2019). For multispecies sheries and surveys, sample stratication
often considers ecosystem boundaries (e.g., geographic, bathymetric or
oceanographic features) that may be putative spatial structure for
multiple stocks. Punt (2023) explained that spatial strata are often
dened by jurisdiction, and jurisdictional strata can account for national
eets or management regimes.
Most sheries are sampled by eet, in which vessel-based eets or
trip-based m´
etiers are dened primarily by shing gear, target species
and shing locations (e.g., Ulrich et al., 2012; Lennert-Cody et al., 2013;
Frawley et al., 2022). Fleet structure in stock assessment models helps to
estimate selectivity and can account for some spatial heterogeneity,
often imposing time-varying selectivity on the oldest or largest sh
(Methot, 2023, this issue). Many assessments model the shery as a
single eet, assuming constant selectivity within periods of similar eet
composition, regulations, or shing behavior. Information on shing
mortality for each eet can be derived from their partial catch-at-age or
-at-length in aggregate-eet assessments (e.g., Porch et al., 2001), and
state-space models can estimate annual process errors in aggregate-eet
selectivity to allow for varying contributions of eets to total catch (e.g.,
Nielsen and Berg, 2014). However, these single-eet approaches cannot
Fig. 2. Iterative stock assessment process with sequential stock identication, data preparation, modeling, and peer review workshops, producing management
advice and research recommendations that can be addressed in a subsequent iteration. The stock identication workshop reviews available information to infer
plausible scenarios of population structure (including the most plausible scenario if possible) and potentially recommend revised stock denition for assessment and
shery management. The data preparation workshop should support the recommended stock denitions so the assessment workshop can develop models for the
recommended stock, sensitivity to plausible alternatives, and potentially performance testing. Peer review can be integrated into each workshop, and additional
science-management interactions early in the process are needed if revised stock denitions are recommended.
S.X. Cadrin et al.
Fisheries Research 262 (2023) 106650
6
account for the spatial heterogeneity imposed by different shing pat-
terns among eets.
Spatial structure resulting from a mixture of multiple sympatric
populations within a stock area can be accounted for with stock
composition analyses. Routine stock composition sampling and analyses
have been successfully applied to assessment of many mixed-stock
salmonid sheries for decades (Utter and Ryman, 1993), and genetic
stock identication for Pacic salmon has been rened over time to be
cost-effective (e.g., Beacham et al., 2020). Stock composition sampling
and analysis has also been applied to some non-salmonid sheries (e.g.,
Kerr et al., 2022). Many other sheries catch a mixture of intraspecic
populations, but the mixture is assessed as a single stock, with no
monitoring of stock components, risks of depleting components, or po-
tential failure to achieve optimal yield (Ricker, 1958).
Spatially structured stock assessment models have been developed,
but few are applied as the basis for shery management because of
model complexity, data requirements, difculty estimating movement
rates, policy implications, or institutional inertia (Berger et al., 2017;
Punt, 2019). Similar to the constraints of data resolution on stock de-
nition, strata denition is also commonly constrained by the resolution
of shery data (e.g., Cope and Punt, 2011; Gertseva and Cope, 2017,
Thorson and Wetzel, 2016). Although many shery systems now collect
spatially explicit data with high-resolution, historical data typically has
lower resolution (Goethel et al., In press).
Some management strategies require information on spatial struc-
ture. For example, some spatially aggregated assessments include
spatially disaggregated forecasts to support spatial catch allocation
(Kapur et al., 2021). Bosley et al. (2019) evaluated performance of
spatial forecasts and found that those based on local stock indices per-
formed best for achieving nearly maximum system yield, but all ap-
proaches frequently led to local depletion when spatial structure was
ignored or specied incorrectly. Spatial stock assessment information
can also help to evaluate effectiveness of other spatial management
actions (e.g., marine protected areas, spawning closures).
3.4. Simulation testing
Despite several recommendations for routine simulation testing to
evaluate the consequences of model misspecication (Hilborn and
Walters, 1992; Deroba et al., 2015), few stock assessments include
simulation to evaluate performance of the estimation model, and almost
all of those assume a unit stock in the operating model. Most
simulation-estimation testing occurs in research projects that are
somewhat independent from the stock assessment process, and results
are not always considered in the assessment. Similar to other model
misspecications that receive more attention, stock assessments with
mis-specied stock boundaries or spatial structure can be misleading.
Therefore, simulation testing is needed in which operating models
represent plausible population structure (Cadrin, 2020).
4. Suggested good practices
4.1. Stock identication
Regardless of assessment or management constraints, plausible
population structure should be inferred from an interdisciplinary syn-
thesis of all information available, including perspectives from the
shery. If possible, the most plausible scenario of population structure
should be identied to simplify data compilation for a single stock
assessment model. However, even the most data-rich sheries will have
some uncertainty for inferring population structure, which can be
expressed as multiple plausible scenarios of population structure. For
well-informed inferences, plausible scenarios may have a common
archetype of population structure (Fig. 1), with alternative scenarios of
boundary locations or movement rates. More uncertain inferences of
stock identity may be represented as alternative plausible archetypes.
Plausible scenarios can be depicted as conceptual models (e.g., ICES,
2009, 2020; Quinn et al., 2011; Zemeckis et al., 2014; Minte-Vera et al.,
2023, this issue).
Revising stock assessments to more accurately reect population
structure can improve model performance, but reviewing information
on stock identication should be routine and not limited to problematic
assessments. A summary of stock identication and how well it matches
the current assessment or management unit should be updated in every
stock assessment report (e.g., an updated summary of information
should be a generic term of reference for all assessments). These sum-
maries can be supported by stock identication workshops, ideally
within the stock assessment process and before data compilation so that
data can be subsequently compiled to support the recommended spatial
boundaries and strata (Fig. 2). An inclusive process for comprehensively
reviewing, integrating, and updating the information available on
population structure was developed by ICES (2009) for deep-sea redsh
and subsequently applied to some cod sheries (e.g., ICES, 2020,
2022b), offering a methodology for wider application of stock identi-
cation workshops. Coordinating processes for stock identication and
stock assessment (e.g., Fig. 2) facilitates the transition from conceptual
models of population structure (e.g., data maps, workows) to obser-
vation models in integrated stock assessments (Minte-Vera et al., 2023,
this issue). Coordinated processes also promote the incorporation of
stock identication information as data in spatially structured assess-
ments (e.g., tagging, population-of-origin indicators).
New information from advanced methods (e.g., genomics, electronic
tagging, otolith chemistry) should be reconciled with previous infor-
mation from traditional approaches (shery perspectives, tagging, par-
asites), recognizing their relative sensitivities, and which aspect of
population structure each source of information represents. Genomics is
emerging as a powerful and cost-effective tool (Rodriguez-Rodriguez
et al., 2022), and broad genome coverage is considered best practice for
detecting reproductively isolated or locally adapted populations
(Valenzuela-Quinonez, 2016). Genetic variation can also be used to es-
timate effective dispersal in some situations (e.g., Broquet and Petit,
2009). However, persistent patterns of phenotypic variation that reect
environmental differences also inuence population dynamics. There-
fore, complementary information on life history, distribution, dispersal,
and phenotypic variation adds interpretive value to genomics for
determining the most plausible population structure.
Similar to other population processes, stationarity is often assumed
for stock delineation and eet denition, but the persistence of spatial
patterns should be regularly tested to detect possible changes (e.g.,
shifting geographic distributions in response to climate change). Fishery
and survey data should be routinely mapped to explore patterns and
detect changes in distribution as well as the persistence in patterns of
size and age composition, size at age and maturity at age (Hilborn and
Walters, 1992). Analyses of spatial shifts require sampling throughout
the populations range, including its boundaries (Karp et al., 2019).
Spatial shifts complicate the determination of stock boundaries, eets,
and strata, but better representation of spatial structure can help to
identify the mechanism of shift and how to appropriately account for the
shift (Currie et al., 2019). If individual sh are moving from unsuitable
to suitable habitats or the populations range is expanding as a result of
changes in effective dispersal (Hare and Able, 2007), then revised spatial
strata may be needed, or stock boundaries may need to be extended. If
the shift involves a demographic pattern associated with depletion or
rebuilding (Bell et al., 2015), then the stock area should represent the
distribution of a rebuilt population. If the apparent shift in distribution
results from divergent trends of independent allopatric populations
(Link et al., 2010), separate stock areas should be dened or maintained
for each population.
Recommended best practice for stock identication is to include a
description of the spatial assessment unit and a summary of available
information on stock identity in every stock assessment report. Each
assessment should also examine evidence for spatial shifts. Finally, stock
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Fisheries Research 262 (2023) 106650
7
assessments should provide research recommendations to ll gaps or
investigate emerging patterns. Moore et al. (2020b) offer an excellent
example of research recommendations developed through an interdis-
ciplinary review of stock identication. Implementing an iterative pro-
cess of updating information on stock identity, recognizing research
needs, and investing in research (Fig. 2) can help advance all stock as-
sessments, including those for data-limited sheries, toward an appro-
priate geographic scope and structure for meeting the management
needs of each shery.
4.2. Stock boundaries
Stock boundaries should be delineated to represent a biological
population as closely as possible with the data available. Isolated pop-
ulations can be assessed as unit stocks and stock status can appropriately
be based on stock-recruit reference points when all life stages of a
population are contained within the stock area, including those that
demonstrate ontogenetic movement patterns. The entirety of sympatric
populations should be accounted for in stock assessments by assigning
all data (e.g., shery catch, index catch, size or age composition) to each
population in the mixed stock. If population structure is more complex,
stock boundaries should encompass a complete metapopulation while
monitoring subpopulation trends. For example, each population or
metapopulation depicted in Fig. 1 should be assessed as a stock unit, and
subpopulations within metapopulations should be accounted for with
spatial structure within the stock area. There may be tradeoffs between
1) mis-specied stock boundaries that allow a longer time series of
historical information with coarse spatial resolution and 2) correctly
specied stock boundaries with a more restricted time series of recent
spatially explicit data.
If changes to stock denitions or boundaries are needed to improve
the representation of population structure, shery managers should be
consulted early in the stock assessment process so they can communicate
any additional practical constraints and consider adapting to new
assessment units (e.g., support management actions with information
from new assessment units, revise management units to match assess-
ment units). Ideally, management units should also represent biological
populations, because management models (e.g., optimum yield, overf-
ishing, rebuilding plans) imply the same assumptions as stock assess-
ment models. Accordingly, a common standard for managing U.S.
marine sheries is to manage a stock as a unit (e.g., USA, 2007).
Therefore, stock denition should be based on the best scientic infor-
mation available to meet management objectives while considering
practical constraints, similar to other stock assessment assumptions that
have management implications (e.g., stock-recruitment, natural mor-
tality, selectivity, data weighting).
If practical challenges preclude the assessment of entire meta-
populations with subpopulation structure, subpopulations that have
some larval connectivity with other subpopulations, but negligible post-
settlement connectivity, can be effectively assessed with separate as-
sessments and stock status can be appropriately based on per-recruit
reference points. However, reproductive capacity of the entire meta-
population requires conservation. For example, source-sink dynamics
and increased vulnerability of source subpopulations should be consid-
ered in stock assessment and shery management.
If spatial management units include multiple discrete populations,
each population should be separately assessed. Consistent productivity
assumptions and model settings can help to provide comparable abun-
dance and mortality estimates for management of the combined unit
(PFMC, 2021). Separate stock assessments with consistent assumptions
provide estimates of stock size, mortality and projected catch that are
more comparable and potentially additive for aggregate catch advice (e.
g., Jardim et al., 2018). Such consistency in assessment methods can
help to avoid misleading inferences of spatial distribution and associated
management conicts. For example, Georges Bank cod and haddock
assessments demonstrate how lack of consistency between assessments
can create challenges for shery management. U.S.-Canada trans-
boundary management units are nested within larger U.S. management
units (Pudden and VanderZwaag, 2007), but separate assessments with
different methods and assumptions (e.g., natural mortality) produce
estimates of stock size that are not comparable and catch advice that is
not even approximately additive. As a result of these inconsistent
methods and assumptions, subtracting total allowable catch for the
smaller area from allowable catch for the larger area currently leaves
little cod catch for U.S. sheries (NEFMC, 2022).
4.3. Spatial structure within stock areas
If population structure is too complex to dene distinct spatial
stocks, stock assessment may require spatial stratication, spatiotem-
poral analysis, or stock composition analysis to account for heteroge-
neity. For example, assessment of metapopulations needs to account for
each subpopulation (Fig. 1). Populations with discrete spatial structure
require stratication of samples or models, depending on the degree of
connectivity. Complex populations with isolation by distance within the
stock area require spatially explicit data and assessment models.
Routine stock composition sampling is needed to account for sym-
patric populations. Stock composition (i.e., population-of-origin for in-
dividuals in a mixed stock) can be representatively sampled with other
compositional samples (e.g., size, age, sex), and archived samples can be
used to derive historical stock composition (e.g., genetics, otolith
chemistry and microstructure; e.g., Smith and Campana, 2010). Stock
composition sampling and analyses have been successfully applied to
some sheries, but they are typically applied to data preparation (e.g.,
catch by population).
Stratied sampling and eet structure can account for some shing
patterns and heterogeneous vital rates (e.g., Berger et al., 2012;
Waterhouse et al., 2014; Hurtado-Ferro et al., 2015). Fleet denition
involves the recognition of heterogeneous shing patterns, so that
shing behavior and selectivity are relatively homogenous within eets.
Good practice for eet denition involves hierarchical classication
using information on shing effort (e.g., location, season, shing gear,
mesh size, horsepower), a priori target species (e.g., sher interviews),
or catch (e.g., species composition, size composition; e.g., Marchal,
2008; Lennert-Cody et al., 2010, 2013; Ulrich et al., 2012; Frawley et al.,
2022).
Spatially structured population models are generally preferred over
the eets-as areas approach (Methot, 2023, this issue) and spatial model
structure may be needed for stronger patterns of heterogeneity (Berger
et al., 2017; Punt, 2019). Sub-annual time intervals are needed in
spatially structured models to represent seasonal movement patterns
and the sequence of movement with other events (e.g., spawning, sh-
ing, surveys; Bentley et al., 2004; Taylor et al., 2011). Low spatial res-
olution of some data may not be an obstacle for spatial structure in
assessment models, because integrated models can t directly to
spatially aggregated data (e.g., historical shery data) as well as
spatially disaggregated data (e.g., recent shery data and survey data) to
represent spatial structure and include all available information (Fig. 3).
Many sex-structured models demonstrated how integrated models can
t to aggregated and disaggregated data (Maunder and Punt, 2013;
Wilberg et al., 2023, this issue). If data are not sufcient to support a
complex estimation model, sensitivity analyses can help to evaluate the
consequences of simplication. For example, Thorson and Wetzel
(2016) found that their two-area model assuming no post-settlement
movement produced similar results as sensitivity runs that assumed a
single area or a range of assumed movement rates among areas.
Spatial structure within a stock area can also be represented by
spatiotemporal analyses (e.g., Cao et al., 2020). Spatiotemporal models
are particularly well suited to population structures and geographic
pattens that are less discrete (e.g., isolation by distance, geographic
clines) because they account for spatial correlation. Spatiotemporal
models are promising but may need further development for application
S.X. Cadrin et al.
Fisheries Research 262 (2023) 106650
8
to complex population structures (Goethel et al., 2023, this issue).
4.4. Simulation testing
If stock identication is routinely reviewed in the stock assessment
process, some assessments will be recognized as mis-specied for rep-
resenting the most plausible population structure. ‘Cross-test simula-
tions should be conducted for any suspected misspecication (Deroba
et al., 2015; Punt et al., 2020), so assessments that cannot conform to
unit stock assumptions are simulation-tested to evaluate performance (e.
g., Goethel et al., 2016). Simulation-estimation testing would be most
appropriately done within the stock assessment process so that results
can be considered in determining best practice for each assessment (e.g.,
Jacobsen et al., 2022). However, if simulation testing is beyond the
scope of operational assessments, it should be developed as a research
project in coordination with the assessment process.
If the information available supports multiple plausible stock struc-
tures, they can be represented as multiple operating models, and
simulation testing can evaluate the robustness of estimation models to
the range of plausible scenarios (e.g., Porch et al., 1998, Jardim et al.,
2018, Punt et al., 2018). If assessment of the current stock area does not
perform well, alternatives (e.g., redened stock boundaries, spatial
structure) should be tested that use currently available data. Alternative
assessment methods that require new data investments may also be
required, and the cost-benet of data collection can be quantied within
the simulation framework.
Ideally, results from spatially complex estimation models that t the
available data can be used to condition operating models (i.e., condi-
tioning on data; e.g., Goethel et al., 2015). When the available data
cannot support such complex estimation models, spatial operating
models can be conditioned on results from exploratory estimation
models or a combination of estimated parameters and expert judgment
(i.e., conditioning on models). For example, alternative approaches to
simulation testing Atlantic bluen tuna assessments and management
procedures used spatial models with a range of relative population
abundance from separate-area assessments (Carruthers and Butter-
worth, 2018) or results from separate-area assessments combined with
connectivity information from shery-independent telemetry (Morse
et al., 2020). These challenges in conditioning spatial operating models
demonstrate the need to continue investments and advances in spatially
structured estimation models (Goethel et al., 2023, this issue), so that
operating models can be conditioned on data rather than on disparate
model results that have inconsistent assumptions about population
structure.
If spatially mis-specied assessment models do not perform well for
providing accurate stock status and more appropriate specication is not
possible within jurisdictional or data constraints, management strategy
evaluation is needed to conrm that the current management strategy
can meet management objectives (Punt et al., 2016, 2017). Precau-
tionary harvest control rules account for some uncertainty, but assess-
ments that produce substantial bias in parameter estimates and their
variances may not perform well for providing the information needed by
the control rule. If the current management strategy does not perform
well, additional management features can be considered for testing
alternative options (e.g., marine protected areas, spawning closures,
escapement thresholds for spawning groups, spatial catch allocation;
Bosley et al., 2019). Spatial operating models that represent multiple
populations, mixing and eet structure can be used to test empirical
management procedures (e.g., Carruthers and Butterworth, 2018) or
relatively simple model-based procedures (e.g., Morse et al., 2019;
Weston et al., 2019). Management strategy evaluation may be needed
before revising management units to justify the costs of transition.
5. Required research
Investments are needed to regularly update stock identication in-
formation (e.g., Fig. 2), to ll critical information gaps, and to address
uncertainties. Although inter-disciplinary stock identication remains
best practice, genomics is emerging as a cost-effective approach that can
be applied to many more species. As applications of close-kin mark
recapture increase, genetic data can provide information for stock
identication (e.g., Trenkel et al., 2022; Bravington, 2023, this issue).
These investments involve commitments to 1) consider the new infor-
mation in the context of other available information, 2) potentially
revise perceptions of population structure, 3) evaluate the consequences
of any mismatches between the current assessment unit with the new
perception of population structure, and 4) revise stock boundaries,
spatial structure, or management procedures if needed.
Further development of spatial assessment models is needed so that
estimation models can better represent complex populations and sh-
eries (Goethel et al., 2023, this issue). If spatial models are too complex
to be supported by the information available for a specic shery,
exploratory spatial models may help to condition operating models for
simulation testing. For example, if the data cannot inform the estimation
of some model parameters, multiple operating models can be condi-
tioned on a plausible range of assumed values (e.g., Carruthers and
Butterworth, 2018). Considering the recommendations for routine
simulation testing of stock assessments (Hilborn and Walters, 1992;
Deroba et al., 2015), the next generation of stock assessment models
should support efcient simulation testing of spatially structured or
multi-population models (Punt et al., 2020).
The geographic integration of stock identication information from
multiple disciplines remains somewhat qualitative (e.g., the conceptual
models described by Minte-Vera et al., 2023, this issue). More quanti-
tative integration and appropriate consideration of uncertainty would
require the development of spatially explicit population genetics models
to evaluate differences within and between populations. Conventional
population genetics models (e.g., Rousset, 2007) would need to be
extended to t data on genetic variability, phenotypic variability,
movement, and effective dispersal at ecological time scales. More ac-
curate information on heritability of phenotypic traits and rates of
early-life history dispersal and post-larval movement would be needed
to support such integrated population genetics. Population genetics
models may develop in parallel with the next generation of spatial stock
assessment models.
6. Discussion
There are two main challenges for dening stock boundaries and
strata within stock areas: 1) delineation of a stock that represents a
discrete population, and 2) representing more complex population
structure. Failing to address either challenge (i.e., violating unit stock
Fig. 3. Data inventory for an integrated stock assessment with spatial structure
(two areas: north and south) t to spatially aggregated historical data and
spatially disaggregated recent data, showing that poor spatial resolution of
historical shery data may not be an impediment to spatially structured
stock assessment.
S.X. Cadrin et al.
Fisheries Research 262 (2023) 106650
9
assumptions or mis-specifying population structure) may corrupt stock
assessments and mislead shery management. Therefore, unit stock
assumptions cannot be dismissed without simulation testing to conrm
that mis-specied assessments perform well enough to meet objectives.
When stock identication suggests distinct populations, it may be
cost-effective to revise stock boundaries, so they encompass each pop-
ulation. Inter-jurisdictional assessments may be needed to resolve
boundary constraints (Gulland, 1980; Hilborn and Sibert, 1988; Caddy,
1997; FAO, 1994; UN, 1995). Data limitations can be confronted by
improved monitoring systems that provide the required spatial data, and
recovery of spatially explicit data from archives. The costs of these in-
vestments may be considerably less than the costs of misleading stock
assessments for shery management.
The scientic challenge is greater when stock identication suggests
more complicated population structure. There have been advances to-
ward accurately representing complex population structure in stock
assessment for some data-rich sheries, but many sheries do not have
the information to support such complex estimation models. This situ-
ation appears to present a ‘Catch-22 conundrum, because spatial data
are insufcient to correctly specify the estimation model, but spatial
information is needed to condition operating models for simulation
testing the performance of simpler estimation models. There are two
alternative solutions to this challenge. Operating models can be loosely
conditioned on the information developed by iterative stock identica-
tion to represent multiple plausible scenarios. Alternatively, operating
models can be more precisely conditioned on results from exploratory
spatial estimation models that are t to the available data. Exploratory
spatial models may not be reliable enough for precise status determi-
nation or catch advice, but the range of results may adequately represent
the system for simulation testing. Advances in spatial estimation models
should help to resolve this conundrum (Goethel et al., 2023, this issue).
Assessment of data-limited sheries usually involves some form of
model simplication, including bold assumptions that may not be valid
(e.g., Cope, 2023, this issue). The data and model requirements for
spatial assessment or testing are a particular challenge for data-limited
sheries, but model assumptions and consequences for violating them
apply to all stocks. For example, in his manual of methods for stock
assessment of tropical sheries, Pauly (1984) began by explaining
Russells (1931) axiom of a unit stock and its assumptions. The iterative
approach of routine stock identication, delineation of stocks to meet
unit-stock assumptions, operational assessment, and research to ll in-
formation gaps (Fig. 2) can be applied to data-limited sheries. The data
collected for assessment can be explored for information on stock
identity (Begg and Waldman, 1999), and the population richness of a
species (Sinclair, 1988) can be considered for forming putative scenarios
of population structure. The trend toward simulation testing
data-limited assessments using the information available (Carruthers
et al., 2014) can be expanded to spatial simulations with multiple
operating models to represent plausible scenarios of population
structure.
State-space models might offer a solution to account for relatively
low rates of movement across stock boundaries as process error in sur-
vival (Frisk et al., 2008; Aldrin et al., 2019; Nielsen and Berg, 2023, this
issue). However, the degree of structural misspecication that can be
accounted for as stochastic process error needs to be determined. Similar
to other potential approaches, the performance of state-space models
that include process error in survival to account for immigration or
emigration should be simulation tested.
The common terminology of ‘stockand ‘unit stock assumptionmay
contribute to the common misspecication of population structure in
stock assessments. It may seem like an obvious tautology, but simply
calling a management unit or assessment unit a ‘stock does not imply
that it meets unit stock assumptions. Viewing biological population
structure through the human constructs of jurisdictions, shing grounds,
reporting areas, or geographic sampling strata often produces a distorted
perspective, like the people in Platos cave inferring reality from
shadows on the wall. Furthermore, through the iterative process of stock
assessment and shery management, the management unit and stock
appear to become biological realities themselves that conform to unit
stock assumptions, like Pygmalion eventually believing his sculpture is a
real person (Schnute and Richards, 2001). These human tendencies can
be countered by routine stock identication to remind us that assess-
ment models are simplications and may not represent the reality of
population structure. Iterative improvements to stock boundaries and
model specications will help to conform to unit stock assumptions.
7. Conclusion
Complying with the unit stock assumption may be the most impor-
tant structural decision in stock assessment modeling, and many stock
assessments can be improved by revising the stock boundary to
encompass a discrete biological population. Stock boundaries and strata
denitions should be routinely evaluated, informed by stock identi-
cation, and based on the most plausible stock structure. Iterative
application of these practices for stock identication and stock assess-
ments can advance assessment frameworks towards an appropriate
geographic scope and structure for meeting the management needs of
each shery (e.g., Fig. 2).
Spatially complex populations present challenges associated with
data limitations or jurisdictional constraints. Spatially mis-specied
stock assessment models may not accurately represent complex pop-
ulations. Therefore, simulation testing is needed to conrm acceptable
performance for informing shery management. The technical chal-
lenge for assessing spatially complex populations is the conditioning of
operating models for simulation testing that adequately represent
plausible scenarios of population structure informed by stock
identication.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Steven Cadrin: Conceptualization, Writing original draft prepa-
ration, Writing review & editing preparation, Visualization. Daniel
Goethel: Writing original draft preparation, Writing review &
editing preparation. Aaron Berger: Writing original draft prepara-
tion, Writing review & editing preparation. Aaron Berger: Writing
review & editing preparation.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing nancial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to inuence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
No data was used for the research described in the article.
Acknowledgments
Thanks to Mark Maunder, Rishi Sharma and the CAPAM leadership
for the invitation to present our perspectives at the Stock Assessment
Good Practices Workshop (Rome, 2428 October 2022). Our views on
stock identication and spatial stock assessment have developed
through collaboration with many scientists and shermen. We appre-
ciate Andr´
e Punts advance draft of best practice overview for the
workshop, correspondence with other participants in the workshops
Fishery and Stock Structure discussion group, an editorial review by
Katy Echave, and constructive comments from two reviewers.
S.X. Cadrin et al.
Fisheries Research 262 (2023) 106650
10
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... Marr, 1957, p. 108 Spatial structure plays an important role in population dynamics and the sustainable harvest of marine organisms (Fogarty and Botsford, 2007;Cadrin and Secor, 2009;Cadrin, 2020). For spatially explicit management strategies, the definition of the geographic boundaries of management units (i.e., stocks) is ideally based on biological population principals, and is a critical component to their success as most stock assessment models rely on the assumption of panmictic unit stocks (Cadrin, 2020;Cadrin, et al., 2023). Because of this, the spatial boundaries of management (i.e., "stock") and biological (i.e., "population") units should necessarily coincide (i.e., should have "coherent dimensionality" sensu Berger, et al., 2021), and inconsistencies between them can have adverse outcomes (e.g., Cope and Punt, 2011;Hintzen, et al., 2015;Kerr, et al., 2017). ...
... Because of this, the spatial boundaries of management (i.e., "stock") and biological (i.e., "population") units should necessarily coincide (i.e., should have "coherent dimensionality" sensu Berger, et al., 2021), and inconsistencies between them can have adverse outcomes (e.g., Cope and Punt, 2011;Hintzen, et al., 2015;Kerr, et al., 2017). Often the theoretical aspects that define a biological population relative to spatially disjunct fishing efforts are dismissed in practice despite evidence that spatially defined units and/or structure are incorrectly specified (e.g., fishery stocks may be defined based on factors such as geopolitical boundaries; Cadrin, 2020;Cadrin, et a., 2023). This highlights the importance of approaching stock assessments in fisheries with a more holistic view that includes testing the performance of models and management strategies under alternative hypotheses of spatial structure in addition to the status quo (Cadrin, 2020). ...
... In fisheries biology, and particularly for Pacific sardine, the term "stock" is often conflated with the term "population" or "subpopulation". This is because of what have been called the "unit stock assumptions" of stock assessment models which are based on biological criteria (see Cadrin, et al., 2023 for a review of this topic). For these assumptions to hold true, fisheries stocks must be defined based on biological populations (Cadrin, et al., 2023). ...
... Establishing appropriate geographical boundaries and identifying spatial heterogeneity within the studied areas are crucial aspects of effective stock assessment (Kerr et al., 2017). Stocks are characterized by three key criteria: the absence of fish movement into or out of the stock area at any life stage, consistent vital rates such as somatic growth, maturity, natural and fishing mortality, and the extensive mixing of individual fish within the area (Cadrin, 2020;Cadrin et al., 2023). Stock assessment models typically assume the fishery resource to be a single, homogenous population (Patterson et al., 2001), making it essential to define clear boundaries and understand spatial patterns for accurate assessments (Cadrin et al., 2023). ...
... Stocks are characterized by three key criteria: the absence of fish movement into or out of the stock area at any life stage, consistent vital rates such as somatic growth, maturity, natural and fishing mortality, and the extensive mixing of individual fish within the area (Cadrin, 2020;Cadrin et al., 2023). Stock assessment models typically assume the fishery resource to be a single, homogenous population (Patterson et al., 2001), making it essential to define clear boundaries and understand spatial patterns for accurate assessments (Cadrin et al., 2023). Their identification establishes boundaries that capture discrete population structures by inferring spatial population structure (Booke, 1981;Carvalho & Hauser, 1994). ...
... Their identification establishes boundaries that capture discrete population structures by inferring spatial population structure (Booke, 1981;Carvalho & Hauser, 1994). However, populations often exhibit spatial heterogeneity, where certain subpopulations within a metapopulation maintain connectivity with neighboring populations or share common geographic axes from early to late life stages (Cadrin et al., 2023). Environmental factors such as habitat availability, ocean currents, and reproductive behaviors frequently influence this spatial population heterogeneity, creating distinct population segments that may require tailored management strategies (Kerr et al., 2017). ...
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This study explores local variations in body and otolith shape of Trachurus trachurus from the Ibero-Mauritanian coastal stock in the South European Atlantic Shelf ecoregion, essential for effective stock management. We used geometric morphometrics and wavelet functions to analyze samples from Galicia, Peniche, and the Gulf of Cádiz. Comparing fresh and frozen specimens revealed significant shape changes due to freezing. Our results confirm that unique environmental conditions in the South European Atlantic Shelf ecoregion contribute to distinct local populations. The northern population had a more elongated body and lanceolate otoliths, while the southern population displayed a wider body and oval otoliths. Central region specimens exhibited intermediate characteristics. Four distinct morphotypes were identified, with region-specific distributions. These findings suggest local adaptations within the Ibero-Mauritanian stock, emphasizing the need to account for these differences in management strategies to ensure sustainability. Future studies should include larger, more diverse samples, especially from the Mediterranean, to further understand stock structure.
... The majority of wild-capture fisheries around the world are assessed and managed at the level of single-species stocks (Cadrin et al. 2023). In some cases, stocks may span multiple countries or jurisdictions. ...
... In some cases, stocks may span multiple countries or jurisdictions. The fisheries management process can become political when delineation of stock boundaries impacts who has management authority over a stock and who is allowed to harvest it (Munro 1979;Cadrin et al. 2023). It is often difficult to determine the stock structure of a species, especially for highly mobile animals. ...
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Changing ocean conditions are leading to spatial redistribution of many marine species, including those that support fisheries. A combination of gradual climate trends and shorter‐lived extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, can change the availability of species or stocks to fishing ports, impacting fishing communities and challenging fisheries management frameworks. Pacific sardine ( Sardinops sagax ) in the California Current System are currently considered as two subpopulations for management purposes. They are separated from each other using oceanographic conditions, based on the assumption that each subpopulation is associated with different habitats and geographic areas. However, as climate change and marine heatwaves lead to increasingly novel environmental conditions in the region, habitat‐based assignments may become impractical or unrealistic. In this study, we use generalized additive models to define sea surface temperature and surface chlorophyll conditions associated with the occurrence of multiple sardine life stages in fishery‐independent surveys conducted in the California Current System. We then show how the spatial distribution of habitats across life stages and putative subpopulations may be influenced by both gradual climate change and marine heatwaves. Our results highlight the potential impacts of changing ocean conditions near major sardine landing ports. During recent marine heatwaves, habitat associated with the northern subpopulation became less available to southern California Current ports, and this trend is projected to continue through the end of the 21st century. Future spatial shifts in sardine habitat may increasingly challenge the practicality of habitat‐based subpopulation separation and introduce more uncertainty into management frameworks.
... Identifying stocks through holistic approaches that consider spatial and temporal scales is essential (Cadrin 2020). Best practices to ensure biological population structure is adequately represented in assessments include stock identification, the determination of appropriate stock boundaries, spatially explicit sampling methods with routine sampling, and proper simulations to test assessment validity concerning population structure (Cadrin et al. 2023). Fish stock delineation studies can involve mapping based on genotypic and phenotypic traits. ...
... Reproductive strategy is a defining life-history trait for understanding genetic or phenotypic stock structure (Cadrin et al. 2023). Failing to account for population heterogeneity (e.g., subpopulations) can result in management actions towards the sustainability of one subpopulation while potentially neglecting to protect the other (Cope 2004;Hyde et al. 2008;Cope and Punt 2011;Keller et al. 2022). ...
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Pacific hake, Merluccius productus, is the most abundant groundfish in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem and plays a vital role in predator–prey dynamics. Hake population dynamics are driven by large annual fluctuations in recruitment and intense levels of harvest. The sustainability of harvests relies on stock assessment models reflecting accurate population trends and life-history parameters, such as the size or age at maturity and the rate at which mature adults fail to spawn. We evaluated biological and functional maturity of Pacific hake from 2009 to 2021 using histological samples collected along the West Coast of North America. Maturity parameters were estimated using a standard asymptotic logistic curve and a more flexible cubic spline to evaluate reductions in functional maturity at older ages. We uncovered temporal variability in maturity across years (length and age at 50% functional maturity ranging from 29.89 to 37.89 cm and 1.93 to 3.24 years). There were also significant increases in functional maturity for fish north of Pt. Conception, CA (nearly 9 cm larger and 1 year older). Pacific hake were found to spawn batches throughout the year and along the entire US West Coast, extending previous reports of spawning occurring primarily in southern California from January to February. To support sustainable fisheries management, biological collections should provide data that allow for consideration of non-stationary life history parameters in stock assessments, such as spatio-temporal differences in maturity.
... Studies of fish spatial distribution and abundance patterns provide information on critical habitats, the potential for intra-and interspecific interactions, vulnerability to human activities, and appropriate assessment model structures, which may need to include sub-areas within a management region [1][2][3]. When assessments and projections lack information about spatiotemporal dynamics, biases in the results can occur. ...
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The Southeastern U.S. Atlantic coast (North Carolina to Florida, U.S.A.) has undergone considerable environmental change in recent decades, including increasing coastal water temperature and human development. The region is also home to a diverse suite of exploited reef fish species, including the southern stock of black sea bass (Centropristis striata). The objective of the current study was to compare trends in black sea bass year class strength and central location captured by trawls (age 0) and traps (age 2) as well as compare those trends to regional bottom temperature. We found no correlation between age 0 and age 2 abundance when comparing the same year class, suggesting that the numbers of trawl-caught juveniles cannot predict the number of adults available to the fishery. Larger year classes observed in traps were correlated with centers of abundance farther south in the region, while smaller year classes corresponded with more northerly centers of abundance. In both trawls and traps, strong year classes occurred following years with below-average regional water temperatures, and a series of recent, weak year classes correspond with recent higher-than-average water temperatures. It is unclear whether correlations between shifting centers of abundance, year class strength, and regional bottom temperature indicate a range contraction for the southern stock of black sea bass or movement into areas previously inhabited by the northern stock of the species.
... A fish species' response to fishing pressure and environmental changes can be understood through reliable scientific data on population dynamics, which is essential for species resilience (Kerr et al., 2017). Stock, in the context of fisheries, refers to a population of organisms with a shared gene pool that is distinct enough to be regarded as a self-sustaining system suitable for management (Larkin, 1972;Waldman, 2005;Cadrin et al., 2023). The concept of a stock is crucial for understanding the dynamics and management of fish populations, as different stocks of the same species can exhibit varying migration patterns, growth, reproductive dynamics, and other characteristics that require targeted management strategies (Kallio-Nyberg et al., 2002;Begg and Cadrin, 2016). ...
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Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) productivity along the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) requires the application of robust analytical approaches. Both design-based and model-based methodologies have been employed to address this challenge. The Spawning Potential Ratio (SPR) provides valuable insights about population indicators. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of the SPR for Antarctic krill by applying a Length-Based Spawning Potential Ratio (LBSPR) model to 20 years of fishery-dependent length composition data. Results showed spatial and temporal heterogeneity among fishing strata in the WAP, where Gerlache Strait stratum was consistently lower than the 20% SPR reference point, compared with Elephant, Bransfield Strait, South West and Joinville strata. Moreover, we demonstrate the sensitivity of LBSPR to changes in growth parameters, such as k and Linf, which are influenced by environmental variables like chlorophyll. Our findings underscore the necessity of incorporating environmental variability into stock assessment models, such as those based on SPR, to accurately assess krill stock conditions. Given the apparent spatial heterogeneity in intrinsic productivity identified through our SPR estimates, we propose using this approach to establish a management procedure based on a control rule for each stratum. This method adjusts the allocation of catch limits in line with the new management strategy of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR). By integrating knowledge about spatial krill dynamics and its intrinsic productivity, advice can be recommended to ensure the sustainable management of krill populations in Subarea 48.1.
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The technical capability of stock assessment analysts, along with characteristics of their operating environment, often limits the development of suitable population dynamics models and affects the accuracy of estimated quantities used for fisheries management. Following a series of training workshops focused on the Stock Synthesis and Stock Assessment Continuum Tool packages, Australian stock assessment scientists were invited to participate in a hypothetical stock assessment “Game” to explore the repercussions , for assessment, of different levels of experience and technical capability in an informal “consequence-free” manner. A fishery data set was generated using a simulation model that represented a stock distributed over 12 regions and harvested by three fishing fleets. The simulation model was made complex by including spatial structure, time-varying selectivity for some fleets, and changes over time in expected recruitment due to the effects of an environmental driver. The analysts self-organized into six (mostly within-agency) groups and reported estimates of current biomass, current depletion and advice regarding the possibility of local depletion. The results of the Game were used to evaluate the approaches used by the various groups and to identify areas where future training would be most beneficial. The results highlighted opportunities for additional training in spatially-explicit population dynamics modelling, the use of methods for pre-processing monitoring data to select appropriate fleet and population structures, as well as the use of methods to provide values related to growth and natural mortality. The groups treated the Game more seriously than was originally intended by the organizers, with several analysts concerned that any errors or assumptions that were mis-matched with the simulated reality may have brought embarrassment to themselves and their agency. Care should therefore be taken that simulation experiments intending to foster collaboration and learning do so in an explicitly understood risk-free environment. Overall, the Game proved valuable in contributing to the development of an Australian community of practice for stock assessment and identifying how to strengthen assessment capabilities.
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Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) supports the second largest tuna fishery worldwide, and in the Indian Ocean, it is overfished and subject to overfishing. This situation presents a significant challenge to fisheries management, requiring effective measures to rebuild and then maintain the stock at sustainable levels. A single stock of yel-lowfin is currently assumed by the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC) for stock assessments in the Indian Ocean. However, the relative contribution of different spawning components to the total catches, and the degree of mixing rates of yellowfin tuna in the Indian Ocean by individuals from different production zones, are still unknown. This study uses otolith core oxygen and carbon stable isotope composition (δ 18 O and δ 13 C) of young-of-the-year yellowfin tuna from nursery areas located in the western (FAO Area 51) and eastern (FAO area 57) Indian Ocean, either side of 80 ºE, to establish a reference baseline of isotopic signatures. Then, a mixed population program (HISEA) and Random Forest (RF) assignment approaches were used to predict the most likely origin (west or east) of sub-adult and adult yellowfin tuna captured from four fishery areas of the western Indian Ocean (offshore Pakistan, Seychelles, Reunion, and South Africa) by comparing their otolith core values to that of the baseline. Both approaches show that the western Indian Ocean fisheries are mainly composed of west origin fish (> 95 %). We also found some individuals with an otolith isotopic signature that was not characteristic of either of the samples available in the baseline. We simulated an alternative baseline group formed by individuals with mean and standard deviation δ 13 C and δ 18 O values above the maximum ranges of the original baseline. We then used RF to infer again the most likely origin of fish in the mixed sample considering 3 possible sources (west, east, alternative). About one third of the samples were assigned to the alternative group, possibly indicating that they differ in geographical or temporal terms with the origins represented in the original baseline. Findings of otolith stable isotope composition of yellowfin tuna in the western Indian Ocean can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the species' spatial structure and connectivity beyond the current assumption of an ocean basin single stock.
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The relationship between the spawning stock size and subsequent number of recruits is a central concept in fisheries ecology. The influence of habitat selection of spawning individuals on the stock‐recruitment relationship is poorly known. Here we explore how each of four different spawner behaviors might influence the stock‐recruitment relationship and estimates of its parameters in the two most commonly used stock‐recruitment functions (Beverton‐Holt and Ricker). Using simulated stock‐recruitment data generated by four different spawner behaviors applied to multiple discrete habitats, we show that when spawners were distributed proportionally to local carrying capacities, there was small or no bias in estimated recruitment and stock‐recruitment parameters. For an ideal free distribution of spawners, larger bias in the estimates of recruitment and stock‐recruitment parameters was obtained, whereas a random and a stepwise spawner behavior introduced the largest bias. Using stock‐recruitment data corresponding to a “realistic” range of population densities and adding measurement error (20%–60%) to the simulated stock‐recruitment data generated larger variation in the estimation bias than what was introduced by the spawner behavior. Thus, for exploited stocks at low population density and where spawning stock size and recruitment cannot be observed perfectly, partial observation of the possible spawner abundance range and measurement error might be of higher concern for management. Total female abundance compared with the number of females at five local spawning sites with a common environment (environment 1). Panels represents combinations of the four spawner behaviors (rows) and two SR relationship (columns). Note that the two axes are shown on logarithmic scales.
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Over the past two decades, enormous progresses have been made in high-throughput sequencing (HTS) method development. This fact unveiled the potential usefulness of HTS methods in a wide range of fields such as fishery assessment and management, for which their application has been extensively discussed. As a consequence of the rapid development, sequencing costs have continuously declined, leading to a general claim that HTS methods are cost-efficient compared with traditional ones. Within this context, the underlying research objective is to assess the cost-effectiveness of genomic techniques through a review of the state of the art (SoA) on three HTS methods: i) environmental DNA (eDNA); ii) epigenetics method for age determination through DNA methylation (DNAm), and; iii) close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) applied on marine ecosystems and fisheries and for stock assessment purposes. The SoA review of the literature on HTS methods was performed through the snow-balling systematic reviewing approach. The analysis has considered the set of processes and variables necessary to perform the stock assessment and compared the capacity of current and HTS methods for providing the required data. Research reveals that HTS methods constitute a promising tool for fishery research and, particularly, for improving scientific advice. Nevertheless, up to now, only one research, on a non-commercial species, has been conducted on the application of HTS methods for stock assessment purposes. Although some partial data are present in the literature, no systematic analysis on costs has been found. This paper suggests that the future research agenda should attempt to straddle both the scenarios for the transition process, considering complementary implementation and substitution possibilities and their cost-efficiency. Clarifying these questions is likely to pave the way for the effective and step-wise implementation of these methods in fishery management; thus, further research is recommended to encompass the transition process.
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Ensuring the long-term sustainability of tuna, billfish, and other transboundary fisheries resources begins with data on the status of stocks, as well as information concerning who catches what fish, when, where, and how. Despite recent improvements in fisheries monitoring and surveillance, such dynamics remain poorly understood across the high seas. Here we delineate and describe pelagic longline activity in the Pacific Ocean using a framework that integrates descriptive vessel information and tracking data with species-specific catch reports. When parsed by distinct vessel behaviors and attributes, disaggregated fisheries data highlight the existence of multi-national, multi-specific (i.e., targeting multiple species) fishing fleets, many of which target waters that span more than one management area. Our findings emphasize the need for increased coordination across regional and sub-regional governance bodies and suggest that effective and equitable management of the sector may require efforts to move beyond single-species, single-area controls and operational distinctions based primarily on vessel flag and/or gear type alone.
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Marine population modeling, which underpins the scientific advice to support fisheries interventions, is an active research field with recent advancements to address modern challenges (e.g., climate change) and enduring issues (e.g., data limitations). Based on discussions during the ‘Land of Plenty’ session at the 2021 World Fisheries Congress, we synthesize current challenges, recent advances, and interdisciplinary developments in biological fisheries models (i.e., data-limited, stock assessment, spatial, ecosystem, and climate), management strategy evaluation, and the scientific advice that bridges the science-policy interface. Our review demonstrates that proliferation of interdisciplinary research teams and enhanced data collection protocols have enabled increased integration of spatiotemporal, ecosystem, and socioeconomic dimensions in many fisheries models. However, not all management systems have the resources to implement model-based advice, while protocols for sharing confidential data are lacking and impeding research advances. We recommend that management and modeling frameworks continue to adopt participatory co-management approaches that emphasize wider inclusion of local knowledge and stakeholder input to fill knowledge gaps and promote information sharing. Moreover, fisheries management, by which we mean the end-to-end process of data collection, scientific analysis, and implementation of evidence-informed management actions, must integrate improved communication, engagement, and capacity building, while incorporating feedback loops at each stage. Increasing application of management strategy evaluation is viewed as a critical unifying component, which will bridge fisheries modeling disciplines, aid management decision-making, and better incorporate the array of stakeholders, thereby leading to a more proactive, pragmatic, transparent, and inclusive management framework–ensuring better informed decisions in an uncertain world.
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We conducted an interdisciplinary review of available information (i.e., genetics, life-history, and movement) to evaluate the stock structure of a previously targeted shark species, the porbeagle (Lamna nasus), in the North Atlantic. Most available information supports the conclusion that porbeagle consist of a single genetic population in the North Atlantic, which is relevant for determining species conservation status. However, the observed movement rates between the Northwest, Northeast Atlantic, and the Mediterranean appear to be low enough to consider separate spatial units for stock assessment and fishery management. The review reveals different interpretations among the organizations involved with the conservation, management, and assessments of porbeagle in the North Atlantic regarding biological population and stock boundaries. Differences in the spatial definition of management units among management organizations may pose an impediment to conserving porbeagle populations and achieving management objectives. We recommend an increased collaboration between organizations involved in highly migratory shark species as it would be beneficial for data collection, data inclusiveness, the robustness of assessments, and provide clarity for fishery managers, scientists, and the public on stocks and status. This review demonstrates that the interdisciplinary approach to stock identification is particularly valuable for data-limited species because no single approach typically has enough information to be definitive. Clearly defining management units that reflect the biological populations of porbeagle in the North Atlantic is expected to reduce uncertainty in stock assessments and help achieve current management and conservation goals of rebuilding North Atlantic porbeagle stocks.
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We present practical lessons learned from applying the recent close-kin mark–recapture (CKMR) abundance estimation method to thornback ray (Raja clavata). For CKMR, related individuals are identified from their genotypes and their number and pattern is used for abundance estimation. We genotyped over 7000 individuals collected in the Bay of Biscay using Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) markers finding 99 parent–offspring pairs. The estimated number of adult thornback rays in the central Bay of Biscay was around 135000 (CV 0.19) in 2013. In total, four lessons were drawn: (i) CKMR helps identifying metapopulation structure, which if ignored might affect abundance estimates and/or time trends. There was strong evidence for two distinct local populations of thornback ray with no demographic connectivity. (ii) Demographic sample composition can affect precision and needs to include a range of birth years, which turned out to be difficult for thornback ray. (iii) Reasonable age information for potential offspring is essential. (iv) The sex of potential parents is needed and might be identified from sex-related SNPs. Reliable abundance estimation by CKMR appears feasible for a wide range of species provided that: sampling adequately covers potential local population structure, has appropriate demographic composition, and the age of potential offspring is reasonably well-known.
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Problems with spatial (geographical) and temporal scales in fisheries research and management have become better known over the past few years. However, technological and some institutional scales, along with essential contextual dimensions (policy, intellectual, and academic) are also important. We discuss fisheries management in general with respect to these matters and their interactions. We also provide recommendations for addressing these issues, both in general and with particular reference to local fisheries. These are: (1) recognize the importance of fishers’ knowledge across all scales; (2) recognize fishers’ motivations, especially at the local/community scale; (3) thus expand the nature of the information used for management; (4) match the spatial management scales to those of the fish and the fishers; (5) recognize the limitations of large institutions to manage fisheries at local scales; (6) recognize the limits of time-series data; and (7) develop better indicators for fishing effort.
Article
The environmental conditions that marine populations experience are being altered because of climate change. In particular, changes in temperature and increased variability can cause shifts in spatial distribution, leading to changes in local physiological rates and recruitment success. Yet, management of fish stocks rarely accounts for variable spatial dynamics or changes in movement rates when estimating management quantities such as stock abundance or maximum sustainable yield. To address this concern, a management strategy evaluation (MSE) was developed to evaluate the robustness of the international management system for Pacific hake, an economically important migratory stock, by incorporating spatio-temporal population dynamics. Alternative hypotheses about climate-induced changes in age-specific movement rates, in combination with three different harvest control rules (HCR), were evaluated using a set of simulations that coupled single-area estimation models with alternative operating models representing spatial stock complexity. Movement rates intensified by climate change caused a median decline in catches, increased annual catch variability, and lower average spawning biomass. Impacts varied by area and HCR, underscoring the importance of spatial management. Incorporating spatial dynamics and climate change effects into management procedures for fish stocks with spatial complexity is warranted to mitigate risk and uncertainty for exploited marine populations.