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Back to the Future: Are we trapped in our past?
Abstract
This paper is a reflection on how evaluators could approach theories of change through a foresight lens. It explores the role of assumptions and especially anticipatory assumptions in how we design our theories of change. It argues for a more open approach, a transdisciplinary approach to the multiple knowledges we bring to bear. It goes on to argue that if we do not build and use our imaginations to think differently about the future than the past, as evaluators we risk being trapped in findings and recommendations that assume continuity in a highly discontinuous world.
... The second purpose emphasizes the participatory process of co-developing a ToC (or multiple theories of change) as a way for a group to explore a change process through multiple perspectives and assumptions (van Es et al., 2015). While these are both important and worthwhile aims, there has been little attention on and few examples of ToC to interrogate and (re)imagine future possibilities for change (Carden, 2023;Tangleder, 2024), especially using futures concepts and foresight methods. ...
... In this paper, we elevate this third, overlooked yet promising use of a ToC process: to (re)imagine future possibilities. As Carden (2023) argues: ...
... 2, emphasis added). Carden (2023) discusses ways that multiple futures can be integrated with the ToC processes, what benefits this may bring, and what capabilities this may require of evaluation practitioners. Within the discipline of futures studies and strategic foresight (Habegger, 2010), there are multiple concepts and methods of potential use within a ToC process. ...
The theory of change is an established, widely used approach to guide the design, implementation, and evaluation of change initiatives. Methodological literature primarily focuses on this approach as a way to model causal processes and, secondarily, as a participatory way for groups to explore a change process. We elevate a third use of a theory of change process: to (re)imagine future possibilities. Part 1 synthesizes prior literature to contrast three purposes (i.e., explanation, exploration, and (re)imagination) and emphasizes the opportunities for forward‐looking, imaginative uses by combining the theory of change with foresight approaches. Part 2 presents a case example of a year‐long process to reimagine how to support social enterprises and women entrepreneurs in Australia and the Pacific involving iterative co‐development of a theory of change complemented by futures thinking. We close with lessons and future directions at the intersection of the theory of change and futures studies.
... While a theory of change might include a wide range of activities, these are expected to be convergent, contributing to the achievement of an expected and desired outcome. Not surprisingly, good arguments have recently been made for evaluators to take a wider perspective on the future (Carden, 2023). ...
This paper aims to encourage connections between the fields of program evaluation and foresight practice by describing the use of a web application ParEvo as an example of how foresight methods can incorporate evaluative thinking. It begins by introducing the field of foresight practice, along with its differences and commonalities with that of evaluation. It then introduces ParEvo.org and its uses to date, along with a detailed description of how a ParEvo exercise is implemented. An overview is also given of how different types of evaluation activities are built throughout the implementation process. Attention is then focused on three different types of embedded theories of change, and how they can be evaluated. The paper concludes with two observations about the breadth and depth of evaluative thinking present in ParEvo processes and the supporting platform. Some limitations are also acknowledged, arising from the rich nature of the outputs generated and the decentralized nature of the design and operation of ParEvo exercises.
This article makes the case that the traditional construction of theories of change fails to adequately interrogate blind spots about the volatility of our current moment, or consider alternative futures. To substantiate this assertion, the authors draw from their roles as participant‐observers in developing a futures and foresight practice at Democracy Fund, a foundation focused on supporting an “inclusive, multi‐racial democracy that is open, just, resilient, and trustworthy.” The authors provide an overview of whether and how Democracy Fund's practice, which is structured around understanding how a system might respond to sources of disruption, has helped the organization prepare for significant change within a system—and develop theories of change that remain relevant. Authors discuss how the future studies and foresight methods they have used, which include scenario planning and trend‐sensing, deserve more widespread use in the evaluation community, particularly when it comes to developing and evaluating theories of change.
Focusing on and supporting the integration of two overlapping but siloed disciplines is an exciting but uncertain endeavor. We can anticipate ambiguity in that it is an exploratory activity, as well as novelty in that we don't know exactly where we are going until we get there. However, we are sure it is worth the effort. As evidenced by the papers in this volume, evaluation and futures studies are two disciplines that have much to offer one another. Evaluation can inform the quality and effectiveness of foresight initiatives, such as whether an environmental scanning system surfaces signals of change that supports organizational long‐term thinking and preparedness. Systematically thinking about the future can free evaluation from being a primarily hindsight‐based discipline and activity and enable it to play a more active role in informing strategy and decision‐making that benefits evaluators, clients, and the program. Looking across this volume's papers, and beyond, we identify themes important to advancing foresight evaluation thinking and practice. In particular, we focus on how foresight thinking and methods can inform evaluation practice (and vice versa), the foresight capacity required on the part of evaluators, and the evaluation capacity that foresight practitioners currently have. Additionally, we provide some observations on gaps and challenges, and recommend ways that evaluators can look inward and outward to advance their foresight evaluation practice.
The Capacity to Decolonise is an IDRC research project at the intersection of futures studies, decolonial theory and participatory action research. The present research document introduces the relevance of 1) adopting a capacity-based approach to futures in a context where the images of the future and the ability to create them remain strongly affected by coloniality, and 2) the clarification of design principles that it entails.
The present document figures in IDRC 2020-2029 research results.
Models are needed for how to advance use of knowledge by programs and policy officials to make evidence-based decisions about nutrition. How to advance use of nutrition knowledge in India from 2011-2015 during a political transition was investigated through studying a knowledge initiative led by the International Food Policy Research Institute. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 37 diverse participants, and 1091 news articles, 318 Tweeter and 175 Facebook posts, 12 YouTube events, 65 knowledge products, and 130 engaging events were assessed. Open-axial coding, content and themes analysis, triangulation, and process tracing were used. The knowledge initiative analyzed the landscape, made knowledge available, mobilized it, and engendered its use. After political transition, knowledge was readied for the reassembled nutrition technical community, including timely responses to governmental information needs. Making nutrition knowledge available, mobilizing it, and engendering its use can be advanced through knowledge initiatives in large, complex countries during political transitions.
India is home to 46.6 million stunted children, a third of world's total as per Global Nutrition Report 2018. Nearly half of all under-5 child mortality in India is attributable to undernutrition. Any country cannot aim to attain economic and social development goals without addressing the issue of malnutrition. Poor nutrition in the first 1000 days of a child's life can also lead to stunted growth, which is associated with impaired cognitive ability and reduced school and work performance. Malnutrition in children occurs as a complex interplay among various factors like poverty, maternal health illiteracy, diseases like diarrhoea, home environment, dietary practices, hand washing and other hygiene practices, etc. Low birth weight, episode of diarrhoea within the last 6 months and the presence of developmental delay are often associated with malnutrition in most developing nations including India. This chapter is a small attempt to highlight the state of malnutrition in India and tries to get an insight to overcome the problem. This chapter also highlights the issues and challenges for not obtaining the desired nutritional outcomes. It also provides an insight that this issue can be addressed by adopting comprehensive, coordinated and holistic approach with good governance and help of civil society.
The subject of evaluating foresight work has been around for almost as long as the professional practice itself has, but the field has done little to move closer to a systematic evaluation of its work. This special issue marks the second collection of articles on that project after a special issue of Futures in 2012 (Van Der Duin and Van Der Martin 2012). This issue takes a three-part approach: Part 1: evaluation of foresight in general and evaluation approaches and methods that can support designing an appropriate evaluation; Part 2: evaluation of foresight work in organizations and its impact on long-term thinking and decision-making; and Part 3: evaluation of specific foresight activities—an undergraduate learner foresight experience and a health sector scenario development exercise. The foreword ends with a reflection on the continuing issue of foresight and evaluation.
The world is not more complicated or complex today than yesterday; when it comes to seeing and acting in any specific situation it is capacity that makes the difference, not the absolute number of permutations or even unfamiliarity. What seems complicated to a child may seem like child's play to an adult. In particular, what matters is the sophistication of our sense-making: our ability to discover, invent and construct the world around us. To date, considerable effort has been made to improve sense-making capabilities. Policymakers call on familiar and intuitive methods of everyday experience (preparation and planning), as well as techniques (such as forecasting, horizon scanning, scenarios, expert opinions) considered adequate based on past perceptions of our needs and capacities. Nevertheless, the perceived proliferation of so-called " wicked problems " in recent times has added to a mounting sense of uncertainty, and called into question both the decision-making value of these business-as-usual approaches as well as their sufficiency in accounting for complexity in practice. Recent advances in understanding complexity, uncertainty and emergence have opened up new ways of defining and using the future. The question is therefore not how to cope with a universe that seems to be getting more complex, but how to improve our ability to take advantage of the novel emergence that has always surrounded us.
Robert Rosen instituted a rigorously mathematical treatise on the subject of anticipatory
systems, the theory of which provides the conceptual basis for foresight studies. This article
is an expository introduction[1]. The ubiquity of anticipatory systems in Nature is explained.
An anticipatory system’s present behavior depends upon ‘‘future states’’ or ‘‘future inputs’’
generated by an internal predictive model. This apparent violation of causality is, however,
simply an illusion. The topic of anticipatory systems in particular, and methods of relational
biology in general, provide important tools for forecasting and planning.
Premised on the idea that evaluators should be familiar with a range of approaches to program modifications, I review several existing approaches and then describe another, less well-recognized option. In this newer option, evaluators work with others to identify potentially needed adaptations for select program aspects in advance. In describing this approach, I note the general steps involved and present alternative techniques for identifying, a priori, adaptations that may come to be needed. In the final section, I discuss implications of the a priori adaptation planning approach for the fidelity–adaptation trade-off, past criticism of logic models as overly fixed and linear, potential research and evaluation questions, the development of more detailed views of programs in evaluation theory and training, and possible resistance to adaptation planning. Discussion also considers the potential future of program adaptations in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Culturally responsive evaluation contests that Western-derived evaluation methods represent a universal truth and promotes approaches that reflect the local context. Taking this approach, we examine how the method of contribution analysis may be modified to reflect a different worldview. We reframe contribution analysis using a Confucian lens as Confucianism represents a value system that is still integral to the way societies operate in several East and Southeast Asian countries today. First, we unpack the theory behind contribution analysis and how it is applied by Western evaluators then compare this with aspects of Confucianism. We then examine how the application of contribution analysis might be modified to take into account a Confucian worldview. Finally, we discuss how, in a world of globalized, complex societies, this approach could be used by evaluators to adapt evaluation methods to be congruent with the worldviews in the local context where an evaluation is occurring.
The term "stunting" has become pervasive in international nutrition and child health research, program, and policy circles. Although originally intended as a population-level statistical indicator of children's social and economic deprivation, the conventional anthropometric definition of stunting (height-for-age z scores <-2 SD) is now widely used to define chronic malnutrition. Epidemiologists often portray it as a disease, making inferences about the causes of growth faltering based on comparisons between stunted (i.e., undernourished) and nonstunted children. Stunting is commonly used to monitor public health and nutrition program effectiveness alongside calls for the "elimination of stunting." However, there is no biological basis for the -2 SD cutoff to define stunting, making it a poor individual-level classifier of malnutrition or disease. In fact, in many low- and middle-income countries, children above and below the threshold are similarly affected by growth-limiting exposures. We argue that the common use of stunting as an indicator of child linear growth has contributed to unsubstantiated assumptions about the biological mechanisms underlying linear growth impairment in low- and middle-income countries and has led to a systematic underestimation of the burden of linear growth deficits among children in low-resource settings. Moreover, because nutrition-specific short-term public health interventions may result in relatively minor changes in child height, the use of stunting prevalence to monitor health or nutrition program effectiveness may be inappropriate. A more nuanced approach to the application and interpretation of stunting as an indicator in child growth research and public health programming is warranted.
The Participatory Evolution of Alternative Futures
- R Davies
Evaluating the future Podcast
- R Davies
Algorithmic Enclaves: Affective politics and algorithms in the neoliberal social media landscape
- Lim
New India National Family Health Services Data shows worrying tends on anemia, overweight. IFPRI blog
- P Menon
- P H Nguyen
- R Avula
- E Sarswati
Malnutrition in India: The national nutrition strategy explained
- N Rao
What is ‘Futures Literacy’ and why is it important? On overcoming blind resistance to change and poverty of the imagination. Downloaded from Medium
- N Larsen
- J K Mortensen
- R Miller
Anticipatory Systems
- Rosen