How Credit-money Shapes the Economy: The United States in a Global System: The United States in a Global System
... Le but de l'article n'étant pas de justifier l'utilisation du terme système, du terme régime ou de tout autre terme, nous adopterons icipar commodité de langage et par convention puisque la forme institutionnelle dans la théorie de la régulation est appelée ainsile terme de « régime monétaire ». Cette approche est présentée comme une grille de lecture applicable à une zone monétaire donnée et permettant (i) de comprendre la régulation monétaire -c'est-à-dire la régulation des conflits autour de la monnaieau sein de cette zone, (ii) identifier les changements de régime (passage d'une régulation à une autre) et ( Guttmann (1994, pp. 41-42) et Durand (2017 à savoir la dette privée, la dette publique et la capitalisation boursière (lorsque celles-ci s'accumulent indépendamment de la production). ...
... L'article est constitué de deux parties. La première présente l'essentiel des travaux régulationnistes sur lesquels nous nous appuyons, à savoir Aglietta et Orléan (2002) qui mettent l'accent sur le conflit créanciers/débiteurs résultant de l'ambivalence de la monnaie, et Guttmann (1994 ; qui dépasse l'approche typologique et présente le rôle du régime monétaire dans l'articulation entre activité de financement de l'industrie et activité de spéculation. Nous conclurons cette première partie en présentant une théorie synthétique du régime monétaire. ...
... Celles-ci ont donc pour but d'assurer la reproduction du régime. Guttmann (1994 ; apporte un éclairage sur un lien que nous n'avons pas encore mentionné : le lien entre régime d'accumulation 6 et régime monétaire. Guttmann 7 définit un régime monétaire comme l'ensemble des politiques des autorités monétaires : (i) politique monétaire, (ii) politique financière incluant l'intervention du prêteur en dernier ressort en cas de crise, (iii) politique de réglementation financière pour la sécurité des institutions financières et (iv) toute participation au système monétaire international (politique de change, libre circulation ou non des capitaux). ...
Cette thèse analyse les politiques monétaires dites « non conventionnelles » de la Banque centrale européenne menées depuis la crise des crédits subprimes démarrée en 2007. Le sujet de cette thèse est d’inspecter si ces politiques non conventionnelles ont entrainé un changement de régime de politique monétaire de la Banque centrale européenne. La réponse à cette problématique de recherche est structurée en 4 chapitres. Le chapitre 1 pose les fondements théoriques en analysant la notion de régime monétaire. Le chapitre 2 étudie le régime de politique monétaire conventionnel de la Banque centrale européenne en temps « normal », avant la crise de 2007. Puis le chapitre 3 examine en détail la variété de politiques monétaires non conventionnelles de la Banque centrale européenne post 2007. Enfin, le chapitre 4 analyse les éventuels changements de régime de politique monétaire de la Banque centrale européenne, notamment au niveau de trois éléments : la politique de bilan, l’évolution du principe de séparation, ainsi que les canaux de transmission.
... Banks were forced to divest their investment banking branches to avoid conflict of interest in the credit and capital markets. The purpose of this prohibition was to avoid price manipulation and abusive market power practices (Guttmann, 1994). ...
... As highlighted by Guttmann (1994), this new legislation also enhanced the competition by the banks, since the "quasi currencies" -such as NOW accounts, ATS accounts 2 , etc. -had been ratified and any depositary institution was allowed to operate with these accounts. These, which practically represented demand deposits, not only yielded interest, but also enabled the expansion of the credit currency. ...
... However, despite the deregulation process was initiated during Paul Volcker management (1979)(1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987) at the Federal Reserve (Fed), it is accentuated under the command of Alan Greenspan (1987Greenspan ( -2006, favoring the expansion of the banking business in capital market. Calomiris (2006, p. 171) points out that, under the management of Greenspan, the logic of "beneficial deregulation" followed by the Fed 3 could advance because: a) did not create major opposition in Congress; b) did not harm the business of large commercial banks; c) did not diminish the Fed's competitiveness vis-à-vis other regulators present in the American financial system. 2 Negotiable Orders of Withdraw (NOW) Accounts and Automatic Transfer of Savings (ATS) Accounts refer to the alternative transaction accounts implemented by banks in the 1970s that paid interest (Guttmann, 1994). 3 The author conceives the Fed as a political player in Washington (D.C.), subject to congressional oversight, a competitor in promoting financial regulation and an agent who has to decide whether to prioritize in his or her management the battle in the conception of monetary policy or the role of system regulator (Calomiris, 2006). ...
Based on the Post-Keynesian approach, we argue that commercial banks, through the financial reforms of 1980 and 1999, which made financial institutions more flexible, increased their capacity to operate in the capital market by becoming Banking Financial Holding Companies. The 2007/2008 crisis is understood as a consequence of financial deregulation and financial innovation process that weakened the Federal Reserve's capacity to restrain banking activity. Initially, we discuss the new institutional context that emerged from these changes in the financial regulatory framework between 1980 and 1999. Then, we focus on how financial deregulation allowed banking business to advance in financial markets, how this process contributed to the economic crisis of 2007, characterized both as a liquidity crisis and a solvency crisis, safeguarded by the National States. Finally, we analyze the Dodd-Frank Law (2010), which is interpreted as the reaffirmation of this endogenous process of financial domination.
... Le tournant néolibéral fut initié par un resserrement de la politique monétaire américaine, en réponse, notamment, à la forte inflation résultant de la crise du fordisme, dans un contexte de forte concurrence internationale. Les économistes néolibéraux considéraient la lutte contre l'inflation par une politique monétaire restrictive comme l'une des conditions centrales de la préservation de l'économie de marché (Helleiner, 1994 (Guttmann, 1994 ;Dardot & Laval, 2009). ...
... Dans un contexte inflationniste, les firmes cherchèrent à diminuer la maturité moyenne de leur passif. Leur financement sur le marché du papier commercial se développa, au détriment du crédit bancaire dont les taux étaient règlementés (Guttmann, 1994 ;Stigum & Crescenzi, 2007). Entre 1964 et 1974, le ratio de capital sur dette des sociétés non financières, prises dans leur ensemble, diminua de moitié (Aglietta, 2015(Aglietta, [1979). ...
... Le contexte de difficultés économiques des années 70, marquées par un ralentissement de la croissance économique et une inflation importante, discrédita progressivement les politiques keynésiennes au sein des cercles politiques (Guttmann, 1994 ;Helleiner, 1994). Cela fit le nid d'une vision monétariste, promouvant l'obtention de la stabilité des prix par un contrôle de la masse monétaire (Guttmann, 1994) et d'une approche néolibérale de la finance, en faveur de taux de change flottants et de liberté des mouvements de capitaux, qui permettraient une meilleure allocation d'actifs par la stimulation de la compétition entre acteurs financiers (Helleiner, 1994). ...
La thèse étudie le fonctionnement de l’activité bancaire “originate-to-distribute”, associée au “système bancaire de l’ombre” et ses impacts sur les ménages. Nous utilisons un cadre d’analyse théorique post-keynésien et circuitiste, appliquant l’approche du crédit par la monnaie endogène. Dans l’objectif de formaliser l’activité bancaire « originate-to-distribute » dans un cadre agrégé, nous analysons, dans un cadre comptable, les nécessités entourant l’acquisition de créances par des acteurs financiers non bancaires. Nous mettons en évidence la nécessité du soutien bancaire au gonflement des bilans d’acteurs financiers participant de l’hébergement de créances bancaires en dehors du bilan des banques, préalablement au bouclage financier de ces créances par la canalisation d’épargnes des ménages. Nous traduisons le fonctionnement de l’activité bancaire « originate-to-distribute » dans un modèle macroéconomique théorique de croissance, stock-flux cohérent, en économie fermée. Le modèle est caractérisé par deux sous-secteurs de ménages, travailleurs et capitalistes, différenciés par leurs sources de revenu et leur comportement patrimonial. Nous tenons compte de l’endettement immobilier des ménages et d’un marché immobilier. Nous analysons les répercussions différenciées des cessions de créances du secteur bancaire à un secteur financier non bancaire sur le revenu, le patrimoine et l’endettement des classes de ménages.
... Die Krise des Fordismus hat auf verschiedene Arten die Entwicklung der globalen Finanzmärkte und die Herausbildung einer stärkeren Kapitalmarktorientierung der Unternehmen begünstigt (vgl. Guttmann 1994Guttmann , 1996Boyer 1999;Huffschmid 1999 Offensichtlich ist die Interessendivergenz zumindest zwischen Großaktionären und Topmanagement nicht so groß, wie von der Agency-Theorie unterstellt wird. ...
... Die Krise des Fordismus hat auf verschiedene Arten die Entwicklung der globalen Finanzmärkte und die Herausbildung einer stärkeren Kapitalmarktorientierung der Unternehmen begünstigt (vgl. Guttmann 1994Guttmann , 1996Boyer 1999;Huffschmid 1999 Offensichtlich ist die Interessendivergenz zumindest zwischen Großaktionären und Topmanagement nicht so groß, wie von der Agency-Theorie unterstellt wird. ...
In this paper we argue that the growing importance of the stock mark et i s one central element of t he s o called New Economy. W e analyse the economic and political reasons, the mechanisms and consequences of the increasing capital market orientation of enterprises. In the first section we want to show the fundamental difference between the maximisation of the stock price and of the profitability of the corporation. T he r easons o f the increasing c apital m ark et o rientation a re d ealt w ith in the second section. In the third section we are discussing the shareholder value concept. The institutional changes we can find in the German Corporate Governance system which are connected with the shareholder value debate are described in the fourth section. The last section sums up the consequences and the specific contradictions of the increasing capital market orientation like the contradiction between long-term and short-term maximisation of returns, the impending hollowing-out of firm competencies, and the proliferation of cash burning business models.
... Robert Guttmann grew up in Austria and studied at the University of Vienna, got his PhD from the University of Greenwich (1979) and went on to become a professor at Hofstra University, USA, and at University of Paris 13. His work combines post-Keynesian and French Regulation Theory approaches (Guttmann 1994(Guttmann , 2016(Guttmann , 2022. He does not have strong academic links to Austria and is thus not included in the paper despite the fact that 'Austrian' is clearly recognisable in conversation with him. ...
This paper charts the rise and decline of post-Keynesian economics (PKE) in Austria. Keynesianism arrives in Austria via economic policy debates in social democratic circles where it is used to develop a policy strategy later known as Austro-Keynesianism. PKE gets a foothold at the Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (WIFO), Austria’s
foremost applied economics research institute, and the Chamber of Labour, before establishing itself at the University of Linz. Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s the centre of gravity shifts from Linz to the Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien (WU). During the same period, a lot of applied and policy-oriented research is carried out at WIFO, most of it in German. In the 2000s a blooming of heterodox economics occurs at WU, followed by a rapid dissolution of the heterodox community there. Since around 2010 mainstream economics has reasserted itself and PKE is no longer present at economics departments across Austria. Many of the current generation of post-Keynesian scholars either work abroad, in other disciplines, or in policy-oriented institutions. The main themes of Austrian PKE include income and wealth distribution, finance and financialisation, and ecological economics. In a comparative perspective, the intricate link between the post-Keynesian academic milieu and progressive economic policy is particularly interesting.
... The long-term implications of these alliances depend on the ability of nations to balance economic and geopolitical interests. Cooperative frameworks, such as joint infrastructure investments and technology-sharing agreements, offer potential pathways for mitigating conflicts and fostering sustainable economic growth [47]. ...
Economic policies, financial markets, and global currency dynamics are profoundly influenced by US trade tensions, particularly in the context of escalating protectionist measures and geopolitical rivalries. This paper examines the intricate relationship between US trade policies and their ripple effects on the global economic ecosystem. From tariffs and sanctions to trade agreements, US trade tensions disrupt supply chains, affect cross-border investment flows, and create volatility in global financial markets. These dynamics trigger policy adjustments by affected nations, including changes in interest rates, fiscal strategies, and monetary interventions aimed at mitigating economic shocks. In the realm of financial markets, trade tensions exacerbate market volatility, influencing equity performance, commodity prices, and bond yields. Emerging markets often bear the brunt of these tensions, experiencing capital outflows and currency devaluations, which further destabilize their economies. Additionally, global currency dynamics are reshaped as nations engage in currency devaluation or adopt alternative reserve currencies to counterbalance the dominance of the US dollar. The growing role of digital currencies, including central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), emerges as a strategic response to the uncertainties created by US-led trade disputes. This paper synthesizes empirical data, case studies, and policy analyses to explore the broader implications of US trade tensions on the global economy. By examining these interconnected phenomena, the study provides insights into the challenges and opportunities for policymakers, investors, and businesses navigating an increasingly complex international economic landscape.
... On the other hand, a proper connection between financial and production systems in each country is considered as the most important factor for economic growth and development. Banks as the main part of financial system play a major role in financing of commercial, consumer and even governmental sectors (Guttmann, 2016). ...
In developed economies, the key role of risk management in realization of organizational goals has been well recognized so that its achievements have been correctly exploited. However, in most developing countries, the importance of risk management has not been recognized. The lack of proper risk management systems has resulted in significant losses. Managers in all organizations dealing with risk. Given the importance of risk management, the present study examines the impact of financial pressures and risk management on financial performance of investment firms and banks. For this purpose, 106 firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) were studied for a 5-year period from 2006 to 2011. The results of hypothesis testing showed that there is no significant correlation between risk, financial performance and financial performance of investment firms. However, a significant correlation was found between financial constraints and risks and financial performance of investment firms and banks.
... 6. See A. Wojnilower (1980) and M. Wolfson (1986) for good analyses of those credit crunches. A broader analytical framework for the role of money and banking in the stagflation dynamic is presented in R. Guttmann (1994). 7. ...
... In the context of the principles of innovation and policy/governance, a new phase of capitalism and long boom developed during the late-1940s through to the mid-1970s, including the New Deal between the state and capital/citizens (KWS), US hegemony in the world economy, Fordist relations of productiondistribution, the accord between capital and labor, regulated finance, and familial households, in most significant economies of the world. During the long wave upswing of 1945-1973, well developed financial social structures of accumulation operated through central banking, credit creation, financial intermediaries and business-household savings and investment institutions (Wolfson 1994;O'Hara 2002;Guttman 1994Guttman , 2001. These financial structures helped develop a viable system of industry and technology along with the rate of profit for business in most economies. ...
This chapter examines the nature of money, credit and finance under capitalism, paying special attention to the principle of innovation, involving IEPE scholars seeking to understand and change the system for the better, and the principle of policy/governance where they try and improve the theoretical tools of policy-making. The principle of historical specificity is used to situate money and finance in history since the political revolutions of the late 1700s, industrial revolutions of the 1800s, and the recent series of financial crises during the 1980s–2020s. We study the circuits, instabilities and crises that beset the major nations, especially over the past 50 years, and illustrate through the principle of contradiction how crises arose and forces leading to institutional-habitual changes generating phases of evolution.Then we scrutinize the principle of uncertainty through an analysis of money, credit and finance in the circuit of social capital, endogenous money and credit, and the financial instability hypothesis (FIH). Hyman Minsky’s FIH is explicitly related to the most intense period of financial instability and crises experienced by nations and regions, during the 1980s–2020s. We go on to examine reforms of the international financial architecture, especially in the context of the principle of hegemony and uneven development, vis-à-vis the role of the US dollar, plus the major tenets of modern monetary theory (MMT) as well as critics of this theory.KeywordsPrinciples & conceptsPhases of financial capitalMoney, credit & financeCircuit of money capitalEndogenous money & creditFinancial instability hypothesisGlobal moneyModern monetary theoryFictitious capitalFinancial crises
... Ademais, essa separação mecânica está em evidente contradição com a ideia sustentada por essa corrente de que os depósitos das famílias junto ao sistema bancário torna-se a chave, no fluxo circular, do aumento da oferta monetária (cf. Guttmann, 1994). Em um sistema bancário de reservas fracionadas, a poupança financeira mantida sob a forma de depósitos bancários se transforma em novos créditos e, portanto, em criação monetária. ...
The purpose of this article is to present a critical analysis of post-Keynesian approachs that support the thesis of an extreme endogeneity of money creation. Neither horizontalists nor monetary circuit theorists give special attention to the dual and dialectic aspects of banks, profit oriented institutions which are responsible for money creation and for financial intermediation. Because of these aspects, banking competition is the core of financial instability and credit dynamics. Having as their main goal competition for profits, banks act procyclically helping to amplify the instability of the capitalist economy, and to stimulate financial speculation activities instead of industrial investments, which is the source of wealth and material reproduction in capitalist economies.
KEYWORDS:
Post-Keynesianism; monetary economics; banks. monetary emission; bank competition
... Für die Politische Ökonomie spielt im Gegensatz zu diesen Annahmen die Regulierung des Geldes eine Schlüsselrolle für Wachstum und Stabilität (vgl. Aglietta 1979;Guttmann 1994; Der keynesianischen Argumentation zufolge verblieben den Staaten nach den Liberalisierungen und Deregulierungen bei fixierten Wechselkursen keine ausreichenden fiskal-, wirtschafts-und geldpolitischen Instrumente, weshalb eine Gegensteuerung unmöglich war. Das Argument der Währungsanbindung implizierte einen Wettbewerbsverlust im Zuge der Aufwertungstendenzen des US-Dollar nach 1995 insbesondere gegenüber dem Yen. ...
... Os certificados de depósitos negociáveis, ações, títulos governamentais e as commercial papers 4 passaram a ser os instrumentos disseminados por intermédio das securities 5 . Esse processo foi levado ao limite quando da desregulamentação crescente da circulação de junk bonds, dos títulos hipotecários e outros (GUTTMAN, 1994). Para além dos próprios títulos negociáveis, as inovações financeiras permitiram que os contratos associados a esses mesmos títulos (derivativos) fossem objetos de tramitação e especulação financeira em mercados específicos para as negociações dessa natureza, dentre os quais destacam-se os mercados de swaps, de opções e futuros. ...
Resumo O presente trabalho tem como objetivo precípuo a análise da crise subprime sob uma ótica fundamentalmente institucionalista, sobretudo a partir do conceito e do papel desempenhado pelos direitos de propriedade no âmago do capitalismo atual. Para tanto, utilizou-se o levantamento histórico acerca do desenvolvimento das sociedades anônimas e dos mercados financeiros, bem como dos eventos que desencadearam a crise perscrutada, de modo a articulá-los com as proposições teóricas de matiz institucionalista sobre os mercados financeiros e direitos de propriedade. A explicação esboçada corrobora a visão da crise subprime como expressão intrínseca à lógica de funcionamento do capitalismo, porém afasta-se da concepção "natural" ou supra-histórica desse processo. Argumenta-se que o sistema financeiro atual foi deliberadamente fundado em marcos regulatórios que viabilizaram a difusão das operações e dos ativos financeiros que ampliam a assimetria de informação e a complexidade que envolvem as transações dessa natureza, o que privilegia a exploração dos múltiplos atributos dos ativos e, consequentemente, incentiva a exploração exacerbada da multidimensionalidade dos direitos de propriedade. Palavras-chave: Crise Subprime. Direitos de Propriedade. Externalidades. Abstract This paper aims to analyze the subprime crisis under an optics fundamentally institutionalist, above all, from the concept and role of property rights at the core of contemporary capitalism. To this end, it was used a historical survey of the development of corporations and financial markets, as well as of the events that triggered the peered crisis in order to articulate them with the theoretical propositions of institutionalist tint about financial markets and property right. The outlined explanation confirms the view of the subprime crisis as the result of an intrinsic expression of capitalism operation logic, but moves away from the concept of natural or above historical of this process. It is argued that the current financial system was deliberately founded in regulatory frameworks that enabled the diffusion of operations and financial assets that expand the information asymmetry and complexity involving transactions of this nature; which favors the exploitation of the multiple attributes of assets and consequently encourages exacerbated exploitation of the multidimensionality of property rights.
... In this vein, using data of publicly available market shares and price indices for the 1972-2012 period, Ganapati (2017) finds that, although American industries have grown more concentrated notably through the growth of the very largest firms, the effect on prices has been negligible in the case of manufacturing industries (where output did not decrease) and inexistent in the case of non-manufacturing industries, where output has even increased. The decreasing tendency of prices has been attributed to "a combination of weaker unions, intense global competition, and occasional tightening by the Federal Reserve" (Guttmann, 2016). Regarding competition, we have to stress that exposure to international competition has never been stronger in history, as the evolution of the historical trend of trade openness in the international economy and the United States indicate (cf. Figure 4). ...
The main objectives of this thesis are to explain the emergence of competitive dynamics characterized by a symbiosis between competition and market power and to elucidate how they can be apprehended through the lenses of competition theory. Chapter I investigates the evolution of forms of competition in the United States from 1840 to today. We show that while in some cases market power has translated into hindering competition (and vice versa), in others the two establish a symbiotic relation. Chapter II reviews competition theories and concludes that they do not account for the coexistence of two major stylized facts characteristic of the current hegemonic form of competition: long-run profit rate differentials and strong price competition. Chapter III develops a contribution to competition theory within and between global value chains (GVC). We show that uneven interdependence is the source of intra-GVC market power, which explains long-run profit rate differentials between firms belonging to the same GVC. Then we show how they can be compatible with strong price competition. Chapter IV studies platform capitalism with a focus on “trust-based algorithmic coordination” (TBAC) firms. Building on the case of the ride-hailing firm Uber, we argue that the TBAC firm conjugates vertical market power with strong price competition in a competitive dynamics in which there is a tendency towards monopolization.
... According to critical political economy, the specifi c confi guration of money and the fi nancial system are subject to struggles between different classes and class fractions. Hence the specifi c form of money and the structure of the fi nancial system undergo important changes ( Guttmann 1994 ). Certain confi gurations of money and fi nance favour different groups over others. ...
Most introductory textbooks in the field of economics refer to an amalgam of mainstream approaches without even naming alternative paradigms. It is rare that texts expand on the neoclassical view by considering alternative Keynesian or other approaches. A modern critical political economy perspective in a Marxist tradition is usually lacking. Reasons for this are addressed briefly in the paper. However, the main purpose of the chapter is to show how modern critical political economy perspectives can be applied within a multi-paradigmatic approach to economics. Different paradigms rely on different philosophical grounds. An approach in philosophy of science is presented which allows understanding why there are alternative paradigms in economics. In order to facilitate the understanding of the differences between the paradigms and their respective economic policy implications this chapter focusses on critical political economy and discusses specific economic issues such as the role of the state and politics in the economy, economic growth and crisis, inequality and distribution of income and wealth, the role of money and the financial sector, and the geography of the global economy. This makes the implications of different paradigms transparent and allows for a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach.
... Cabe mencionar, ainda, que na primeira metade da década de 1970 inicia-se o processo de desregulamentação bancária e financeira nos Estados Unidos, aprofundado nos anos subsequentes, que vai dar origem a novos instrumentos e atores que revolucionarão o mundo das finanças nos âmbitos doméstico e mundial. Para mais informações, ver Ferreira e Freitas (1990) e Guttmann (1994). com garantia dos governos dos países desenvolvidos -passaram a se financiar, de forma crescente, por meio de empréstimos de médio e longo prazo sem garantia. ...
O estudo das relações econômicas e políticas entre Brasil e Estados Unidos apresenta uma importante lacuna no que se refere ao tema das relações financeiras. Com o propósito de contribuir para a superação dessa omissão, este texto analisa, em perspectiva histórica, a evolução e o aprofundamento das relações financeiras entre os dois países. São examinados os fluxos financeiros entre eles, bem como a presença de bancos norte-americanos no sistema bancário brasileiro e de bancos brasileiros no mercado estadunidense. Igualmente, o texto discute, ainda que de forma breve, as relações entre os dois países nos fóruns internacionais de regulação econômica e financeira, como o Grupo dos 20 (G20), na sequência da crise financeira global de 2008. Palavras-chave: relações financeiras; empréstimos bancários; investimento de portfólio; investimento direto estrangeiro; Brasil; Estados Unidos; G20. FINANCIAL RELATIONS BETWEEN BRAZIL AND UNITED STATES The study of economic and political relations between Brazil and the United States presents an important void regarding the subject of financial relations. In order to contribute to overcoming this omission, this text analyzes, in a historical perspective, the evolution and deepening of financial relations between these two countries. It examines the financial flows between the two countries, as well as the presence of US banks in the Brazilian banking system and Brazilian banks in the US market. Also, this text briefly discusses the relations between the two countries in international forums for economic and financial regulation, such as the G20, following the global financial crisis of 2008. El estudio de las relaciones económicas y políticas entre Brasil y los Estados Unidos presenta un vacío importante con respecto al tema de las relaciones financieras. Para contribuir a superar esta omisión, este texto analiza, en una perspectiva histórica, la evolución y profundización de las relaciones financieras entre estos dos países. Examina también los flujos financieros entre los dos países, así como la presencia de bancos estadounidenses en el sistema bancario brasileño y bancos brasileños en el mercado estadounidense. Además, este texto discute brevemente las relaciones 1. Estudo realizado com dados disponíveis até o mês de junho de 2016. A pesquisa contou com suporte financeiro do Ipea no âmbito do Programa de Pesquisa para o Desenvolvimento Nacional (PNPD) ao longo do período de fevereiro a agosto de 2016.
... Additionally, US has also significant influence on the world as for economic factors (Guttmann, 2016). The main reason behind this situation is that it has the highest gross domestic product (GDP) in the world. ...
The aim of this study is to evaluate economic improvement of US. For this purpose, the quarterly data for the periods between 1947 and 2015 is taken into the consideration. Therefore, focusing on this long period provides a historical view so that more appropriate results can be achieved. Moreover, economic growth of US is considered as dependent variable whereas four different subtitles of GDP (consumption, private investment, government expenditure and net export) are selected as independent variables. Furthermore, multivariate adoptive regression spline (MARS) methodology is used in the analysis process. The findings show that private investment, government expenditure and net export have a positive relationship between economic growth. It is identified that the positive effect reduces when the percentage of government expenditure exceeds 22.2%. On the other side, in case of negative net export and having lower investment ratio than 16.3%, economic development of US will be affected negatively. These results give very important information that instead of consumption, other three subtitles of GDP make a contribution to the economic development of US. By considering these results, it is recommended that US should mainly implement growth strategies by focusing on private investment and net export. Within this framework, tax advantages for these investors can be provided to reach this objective. In addition to this condition, government should also give incentives to improve industrial production so that investment and export can be increased.
... (Guttmann 1994, 37ff;1996) Lj.J"I.J!ULU angelegt werden. Gleichzeitig andert sich das Verhalten def Sparer in dem entstehenden , und es ergeben sich bedeutende auf der Makroebene mit def T endenz zur Herausbildung eines "finanzgetriebenen Akkumulationsregimes" Guttmann 1994Guttmann , 1996Guttmann , 1998Huffschmid 2002;Aglietta/Breton 2001;Boyer 2000;Froud u.a. 2002;Sablowskij Alnasseri 2001 Dies hat an gehindert, dieses Wissen zu privatisieren und in neuem Gewande als als Patentrezept zur Generierung von "Shareholder Value" zu verkaufen. ...
In the public discussion, the series of accounting scandals and bankruptcies which has taken place in the last years is primarily attributed to the greed of managers and institutional lacks in securing shareholder's interests. However, this article argues that it is precisely the proliferation of shareholder value concepts and the growing dominance of "fictitious capital" associated with the development of financial markets which increases the necessity and the possibilities to inflate profits, sales and share prices by all means, including "creative" accounting
... Those external US deficits are automatically financed by anyone outside the United States using dollars as an international medium of exchange or store of value. Thus, being the only country on the planet not having to face any external constraint, the United States can as a result run much more stimulative economic policies than anyone else without having to worry about its external position, the level of its foreign-exchange reserves, or exchange rates -a huge advantage which I have termed elsewhere "global seigniorage" (Guttmann, 1994;chap. 15) 14 . ...
Financialization, expressing the growing importance of finance in the modus operandi of our capitalist system, has emerged as a key concept in various heterodox approaches over the last dozen years - be they Post-Keynesians (E. Stockhammer, E. Hein), American Radicals (G. Epstein, G. Krippner), Marxists (J. Bellamy Foster, G. Dumenil) or French Régulationists (M. Aglietta, R. Boyer). But until now those various analysts have each looked at this very complex phenomenon from one or the other specific angle. In this article, I am trying to provide a more comprehensive analysis of financialization by tracing its two primary drivers - structural changes making non-financial actors more dependent on debt-financing as well as financial-income sources (“financial centralization”) while also giving increased weight to the financial sector in the economy (“financial concentration”). The complex interaction between financial centralization and financial concentration has yielded a financialized growth dynamic fueling consecutive debt-financed asset bubbles in the center, the United States, that spurs export-led growth in the periphery. Framing this financialized growth dynamic in the Régulationist context as a historically conditioned accumulation regime, finance-led capitalism, I analyze its rise (1982 - 2007) in the wake of key changes in finance and its subsequent structural crisis (2007-2012) to provide a more complete approach to the crucial phenomenon of financialization.
... Artigo recebido em 10 de abril de 2017 e aprovado em 18 de setembro de 2017. (1) Cf. Guttmann (1994Guttmann ( , 2003Guttmann ( , 2008Guttmann ( , 2009) e Guttmann e Plihon (2010), entre outros. ...
... Anfänglich bezog sich diese Rezeption relativ stark auf die Analysen der Akkumulationsprozesse sowie die wirtschaftspolitischen Vorstellungen der französischen Regulationstheoretiker. Während in den 1970er und 1980er Jahren die Analysen der Akkumulation noch sehr stark um die industrielle Akkumulation kreisten, verschob sich in den Folgejahren die Perspektive. In den 1990er Jahren geriet der Finanzsektor zunehmend in das Blickfeld, und die analytischen Konzepte wurden in Richtung auf finanziarisierte Formen der Akkumulation hin ausgeweitet (Guttmann 1994;Aglietta 2000b;Boyer 2000). Von Anfang an wiesen sie auf deren inhärent instabilen Charakter hin. ...
... Global over-accumulation and overproduction can go hand-in-hand with declining rates of productive investment in given countries as was the case of the United States in the late 1990s and 2000s. The XQLTXH LQWHUQDWLRQDO PRQHWDU\ VWDWXV RI WKH GROODU (GUTTMANN, 1994) and huge household and ¿QDQFLDO VHFWRU GHEW PDGH WKH 86 ERWK consumer of last resort and recipient of central bank reserves and private hoards (Sovereign funds from the Gulf) in search of safe investment. In the industrialized countries over-accumulation and overproduction DUH ODUJHO\ ORGJHG LQ VSHFL¿F LQGXVWULHV QRWDEO\ automobiles, and sectors, in particular housing and construction. ...
The most dramatic and most publicized episodes of the world crisis have been financial: the subprime mortgage market collapse in 2007, the failure of Lehmann Brothers in September 2008 and more recently the Eurozone banking and sovereign debt crisis. They have of course each time had their own impact on production, trade and employment. But this does not make the crisis a “crisis of financialisation” or of “neoliberalism”, but of capitalism tout court at a given moment of its history. Its underlying causes are overproduction and over-accumulation at world level and an effective play of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall despite the recourse by capital to the offsetting factors. The length of the crisis, which is now named not a US ‘Great Recession” but a global slump (McNally, 2011), and the end of the phase where China and Brazil appeared to be decoupled from the world crisis are expressions of this.
The rapid evolution of digital technologies and the increased integration between them mark the beginning of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, also called Industry 4.0 or Advanced Manufacturing, which tends to increase the share of modern services in GDP. In the context of this revolution, which is still in dissemination, the world was surprised by the Covid-19 pandemic and its repercussions, with possible implications still unknown to the productive structure of countries, the Global Value Chains, and international trade. Facing this revolution and such an adverse scenario this thesis aims to identify and quantify the contribution of sectors with higher potential for generating and/or implementing Industry 4.0 innovations and with greater relevance for economic growth and development in determining the occupational structure and the episodes of growth and contraction of the Brazilian economy, between 1950 and 2020. For this purpose, this research proposes two definitions of the modern-productive sector, built from the structuralist, neo-Schumpeterian, and Marxian/Marxist frameworks, as well as from the Brazilian economy sectoral indicators (multiplier effects, linkage effects, and key sector), to specify, at the level of 12 and of 67 sectors, which activities effectively contribute to the country's growth and development due to their (actual or potential) characteristics. This study is exploratory and descriptive bibliographic research, with a quantitative and qualitative approach, based on a theoretical framework centered on the importance of the productive structure for the performance of economies and the participation of the State in the creation and maintenance of competitiveness in strategic sectors. The empirical approach rested on the logit model application between 1951 and 2019 and, on the analysis of selected data on the Brazilian productive and occupational structure between 1950 and 2020, essential for building the modern-productive sector definition. Among the results of the empirical investigation, stand out the main determinants of growth episodes (the existence of a development policy, an increase in the participation of the modern-productive industrial sector in the GDP, a reduction of the technology gap, and an increase in the investment rate) and the main determinants of contraction episodes (an increase in the technology gap, a fall in the share of the agricultural sector and modern-productive industry in GDP, a decline in the investment rate, and a retraction of the world economy). The results also showed a divergence between theory and practice in the approaches that point to the modern service sectors or agriculture sector as engines of the growth process, just as the reduction of the State participation in the economy. In summary, the empirical analysis indicated that positive structural change requires a long-term development project and, therefore, a State project. This change, aside from searching to reduce the technology gap, would increase the participation in the productive and occupational structure of the most dynamic segments of the modern-productive sectors, due to its relevance to increasing the chances of sustainable economic growth, to decreasing the chances of contraction episodes, and to providing better opportunities for insertion in the labor market, contributing to poverty reduction and development.
Keywords: Modern-Productive sector. Growth episodes. Contraction episodes. Occupational structure. Brazilian economy.
This paper is a theoretical contribution to the development and update of Marx’s theory of money and credit, given the empirical developments in finance since the 1970s. It expands on the discussion of fictitious capital and government bonds within the Marxian literature. In contrast with most Marxian literature and some of Marx’s own writings on the topic, I argue that fictitious capital does not represent any real capital and then further develop the idea that fictitious capital is the channel through which the dominance of interest-bearing capital over other forms of capital occurs. This interpretation lays the foundation for understanding why government bonds, as titles of fictitious capital, are the keystone of financial markets and an unavoidable source for both financial accumulation and exploitation, rather than being a mere consequence of state spending. For this reason, public debt can neither be avoided nor fully paid off.
Contents: The 1970s and the 2020s / A Bretton Woods era in oil, money, and grain / Endogenous shocks: the dollar shock came first / Dollars and climate: the food price shock came second / By now, overdetermined: the oil shock came third / 1973 as historical breakpoint / Credit fix: the Eurodollar lending boom / The second dollar crisis and the second commodities-and-oil shock / The fall of commodity prices, the debt crisis, and the great depression of 1982 / Time-structures in the history of capitalism
Alienation is a universal theme in literature. The game of chance or gambling under capitalism can produce a hostile social setting for those who are unaware of its negative impacts. In such a social milieu, people can experience feelings of alienation, failing to make their lives their own. This paper analyzes the theme of alienation in the game of chance under capitalism in two stories written by S.E.A. Write Awardees, The Lottery of Karma by Chanthi Deuanesavanh and Lottery by Catherine Lim, through the lens of literary devices. The social settings of these stories are two countries in Southeast Asia, and these two writers set their stories in their own respective countries, Lao pdr and the Republic of Singapore. It finds that, in their exposure to such social settings, the protagonists are beset by a sense of alienation regardless of whether they perform their roles as laborers, capitalists, or consumers.
Changes in the international monetary system do not happen arbitrarily. They occur typically during periods of structural crisis and amidst shifts in the global power structure. One way to put these developments in their proper historical context is by means of a theory of “long waves,” first proposed by Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev in the 1920s as recurrent 40-to-60-year cycles. While it is possible to discern technological or financial patterns driving these long waves, it would be better to integrate those dimensions into a more comprehensive approach as put forth by the French “théorie de la régulation.” The Régulationists trace the long-term evolution of capitalism in terms of successive “accumulation regimes” and provide a typology of crises for when such accumulation regimes disintegrate and get transformed. The international monetary system is one of the key institutional features defining specific accumulation regimes. We are arguably in the midst of a transition from one accumulation regime (“finance-led capitalism”) to another (“low-carbon transition”), with the dollar standard giving way to a multi-currency standard being one aspect of this transition.
We look at the Great Depression of the 1930s and Roosevelt’s “New Deal” reforms as setting the ground for a new accumulation regime known as Fordism which, once put fully into place at the conclusion of World War II, yields the postwar boom of the 1950s and 1960s. At the center of this regime was a gold-backed US dollar functioning as world money thanks to an institutional arrangement known as Bretton Woods (July 1944), supporting a growth-promoting wave of globalization. That regime begins to disintegrate in a decade-long stagflation crisis, following the collapse of Bretton Woods in August 1971. Painful anti-inflationary policies by the United States after October 1979 combine with pro-market “Reagan Revolution” reforms to preserve the US dollar’s world-money role, putting a modified dollar standard at the center of a new accumulation regime best characterized as finance-led capitalism. Driven by successive US-centered asset bubbles, that regime finds itself threatened by a global financial crisis in 2007 ushering in the Great Recession of 2008/09.
Purpose of the study: The purpose of the current study is to get subjective information from SMEs about their views and elicit the experience of getting loans and why not getting loans.
Methodology: This study has been used qualitative research and findings have been gathered using face-to-face in-depth semi-structured interviews.
Main Findings: Findings showed that there are two types of SME firms categorized in 1) Firms that are willing to take a loan but unable to get them and 2) Firms that have access to finance but don’t want to obtain them, different themes have been extracted from the aforementioned categorization.
Applications of this study: This research can be effective to develop an economy in terms of employment generation, human resource development, value addition, poverty alleviation, income equality, entrepreneurial culture, and innovation, and Pakistan is no exception in this regard.
Novelty/Originality of this study: The study is contributing to running a manufacturing unit, usually a large land area is required. Moreover, business locations are preferred near to markets for ease of doing business. Since all these preferred choices require a lot of money to incur for capital expenditure which is hardly available for SMEs.
The article highlights the transformation of financial market, which determines its insulation as an independent economy sector. The tendency was first analyzed in late XIX century and has been developing since then, resulting in dissociation of real and financial sectors. Due to uncertainty traders lack decision guidelines, as speculative transactions do not imply property management. As a result, their decisions are based on expectations and market value losses any connection to real sector performance. Financial derivatives development through late XX century has brought financial market independence to a new level and inflation of the sector to values, exceeding world GDP. Stock market has provided the basis for property and management separation, and derivatives, in turn, separate returns from property and risk from asset. As risk valuation turns out to be the measure of market expectations, it is sure to affect the basic asset prices even more than underlying real capital. The imbalance is believed to have been one of the determinants of the modern financial and economic crisis. Financial market has evidently transformed to a casino to a greater extent, than Keynes identified.
Die Zukunft des “rheinischen Kapitalismus” als Ausdruck der institutionellen Konfiguration und Verschränkung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft bleibt umkämpft. Der Druck hinsichtlich der „Deutschland AG” und dem deutschen Modell der industriellen Beziehungen wird anhalten, ihr Ende auszurufen ist jedoch ebenso verfrüht wie kontraproduktiv. Die Stärken hinsichtlich der langfristigen Entwicklung wie auch der zwei-
felhafte ‘Erfolg’ einer arbeitsmarkt- und beschäftigungspolitischen Deregulierung nach dem angelsächsisch-amerikanischen Vorbild geben hinreichend Anlass, bestehende institutionelle Formen nicht vorschnell preiszugeben.
O artigo propõe uma análise sobre a crise do Sistema de Bretton Woods, com o objetivo de defender a hipótese de que a profunda instabilidade do regime monetário e financeiro internacional, a partir da década de 1970, decorreu também da posição do dólar como moeda de referência no topo da hierarquia monetária internacional. Em face desse objetivo, são analisadas as diferentes iniciativas de reordenamento do sistema monetário e financeiro internacional após o fim do padrão dólar-ouro. Sustenta-se que os déficits no balanço de pagamentos, decorrentes da política externa belicista dos Estados Unidos, desempenharam papel importante na desestabilização das instituições econômicas e políticas acordadas em Bretton Woods. O texto resgata a contribuição de István Mészáros, ao analisar a importância do complexo militar industrial norte-americano no processo de esgotamento do Sistema de Bretton Woods.
We propose in this paper a synthetic definition of monetary regimes for a capitalist economy derived from the principal research of the regulation theory on that matter. We arrive at a synthetic characterization of a monetary regime articulated in two layers: the first constituting the institutional frame regulating the conflict between industrial capital and financial capital and the second corresponding to a freedom space useful to the regime to reproduce itself in normal times and maintain its state in time of crisis. We will apply this framework to the Eurozone and will show that the financial capital has always the advantage over the industrial capital and that the financial capital takes mostly the form of fictitious capital. We will later analyze the role of monetary policy and financial regulation in this context. We find that monetary and financial policy is always conducted in coherence with that state of the balance of power between industrial and financial capital.
This article considers the inextricable relationship between globalization and financialization. It then argues that the decisive characteristic of financialization is the preeminence of financial accumulation over productive accumulation and of capital-as-property over capital-as-function. The importance of intercorporate power relationships in the distribution of surplus value is demonstrated. After a short setback in 2009, claims to surplus value have continued to grow faster than its production and appropriation, implying that financial profits have become harder to earn. The outcome is the unabated intensity of asset trading and endemic global financial instability.
The end of the dollar-gold pattern coupled with inflationary crises in the 1970s provoked a series of reformulations in the various strands of economic theory. As regards Marxism, it is possible to observe two relevant movements from that period: (i) the revival of discussions of Karl Marx's theory of money after the end of dollar-gold standard; ii) the development of studies in trying to explain the origin and causes of inflationary processes in contemporary capitalism. In this sense, this article seeks to contribute to the recent debate through the evaluation of the relationship between money and inflation in the Marxist-inspired literature that emerged driven by the historical context mentioned. This movement was led by the approach of distributive conflict and its focus on the monopolies, which seeks to explain the inflationary processes from the disputes between capitalists and workers in the struggle for income share between labor and capital. Although widely disseminated, some Marxists have pointed to the non-monetary aspect of this approach by treating the monetary dimension of the capitalist system as an accessory by reducing it to its possible impacts on the distributive conflict. In this sense, we highlight the extra-money approach, developed in an attempt to investigate the causes of inflation, assuming the incorporation of Marx's theory of money with the focus on the credit creation process, as opposed to the distributive conflict approach.
Money seems to be both: public good and private commodity. This contradictory nature of money necessitates its careful management. Based on these arguments the recent developements concerning money and banking, primarily confined to the United States, are described.and analysed as the disintegration of the Fordist monetary regime. As a result of this process the private-commodity aspect of money was intensified. lt generated new private fonns of money which triggered acutc crises conditions at financial markets. To counteract these effects it is necessary to establish a new international monetary regime.
The present crisis in Europe is just one form of a multiple crisis of the social formationdominated by the capitalist mode of production. More specifically it is a crisis of the financedominatedregime of accumulation which developed as a response to the crisis of Fordismsince the 1980s. In this article, first we analyze the contradictions of the finance-dominatedregime of accumulation and the contradictions of the crisis management of the ruling classes.
While we have made some recent progress in the direction of creating a new system of climate finance, the latter would be greatly boosted if linked to a new type of money directly funding carbon mitigation. We see first preliminary manifestations of such carbon money, notably three different kinds of international emission-reduction certificates issued under the Kyoto and Paris accords as a sort of carbon credit as well as privately traded carbon offsets. The booming trend toward cryptocurrencies, fueled by the transformative blockchain technology, opens the way for digital carbon tokens as a potentially useful new carbon-money category. But we can also envisage a much more deeply embedded system of carbon money at the center of eco-capitalism, by means of fully monetized carbon certificates entering the banking system. Such carbon money can fund mitigation investments, reward actors for keeping within their assigned carbon budgets, turn emission reductions into a source of revenues (as a new business model), and help liquidate “stranded” high-carbon assets.
The Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping the cumulative temperature increase below 2 °C implies steadily reducing greenhouse gas emissions to a point where the world achieves zero net carbon emissions by 2060. We are nowhere near such a transition to a carbon-neutral economy. To get there we have to phase out fossil fuels and replace these energy sources with renewables, improve energy efficiency greatly, move toward less polluting means of transportation, change many industrial processes, retrofit buildings, make cities more sustainable, transform the way we grow and consume food, and expand our planet’s carbon sinks (e.g., forests). These changes are tantamount to a different type of capitalism. But when looking at the long-term evolution of capitalism, we see that such systemic transformations follow a certain identifiable pattern which makes the transition to eco-capitalism conceivable.
This special issue explores how finance deploys time, structures the future, and interacts with actors and institutions that sometimes function according to very different temporal regimes. Finance capitalism’s logic of recurrence, repetitive cycles, and successive ruptures has long been with us, but the essays in this special issue are particularly interested in how recent decades of intensified financialization have restructured temporal experience. They interrogate the production and dissemination of agency in an age of acceleration, risk, and uncertainty, asking how the temporality inscribed in financial transactions emerges from and simultaneously shapes individual and social practice. Topics covered range from the logic of finance and foundational concepts of financial theory to the intersection between objective structures and social practice, the role of literature, and finally questions of social insecurity, political action, and the possibility of resistance within a context of competing temporalities. In this introduction, the editors delineate some fundamental concepts and questions for our financial times.
Financialisation has been represented as a recent phenomenon linked to the deregulation and globalization of the international trade and payments system that has been in progress since the opening of the Chinese economy in the 1980s. It is often represented as the dominance of finance over production or of monetary over real variables. This essay challenges the usefulness of this dichotomy, arguing in the tradition of Keynes, Schumpeter and Minsky that it is impossible to separate the financing of production into separate categories since a production decision always requires finance to be implemented. It instead suggests that it is the process of innovation in the creation of liquidity by the financial system that provides a more insightful analysis of the implications of financialisation.
p> The paper examines the impact of informal sector activities on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980-2014. The contributions of informal sector activities to the growth of Nigerian economy cannot be over emphasized. It is the source of livelihood to the majority of poor, unskilled, socially marginalized and female population and is the vital means of survival for the people in the country lacking proper safety nets and unemployment insurance especially those lacking skills from formal sector jobs. The relationship between informality and economic growth is not clear because the sector is not regulated by the law also there is no concrete evidence that this sector enhances growth because the sector’s contributions to growth is not measured. The use of endogenous growth model becomes relevant in this study. The theory emphasizes the role of production on the long-run via a higher rate of technological innovation. The variables that were tested are official economy nominal GDP, informal economy nominal GDP, currency in circulation, demand deposit, ratio of currency in circulation to demand deposit, narrow money, informal economy as percentage of official economy. ADF test was conducted to establish that the data series of all variables are stationary t levels. Having established the stationarity test we also, conducted causality test of the response of official economy nominal GDP to informal economy nominal GDP. In conclusion, the impact of informal sector economy on economic growth in Nigeria is quiet commendable. Even though, the relationship between informality and economic growth is not straight. The paper recommended thus, the need for the government to integrate the activities of the informal economy into formal sector and size of the sector is measured and regulated because their roles are commendable. As it will improve tax collection and enhance fiscal policy. </p
An Anthropology of Money: A Critical Introduction shows how our present monetary system was imposed by elites and how they benefit from it. The book poses the question: how, by looking at different forms of money, can we appreciate that they have different effects? The authors demonstrate how modern money requires perpetual growth, an increase in inequality, environmental devastation, increasing commoditization, and, consequently, the perpetual consumption of ever more stuff. These are not intrinsic features of money, but, rather, of debt-money. This text shows that, through studying money in other cultures, we can have money that better serves the broader goals of society.
The possibilities for social movement learning, and most aspects of transformative learning, are historically specific. The cultural, economic, and technological potentials of society clearly affect the goals of social change. Transformative learning even includes possibilities for personal-spiritual change, but this is a topic I cannot deal with here. In this chapter, I want to look—from a political-economic point of view—at how postindustrial development potentials have affected political strategies, and the educational agenda, for radical social change today.
Gegenstand des Regulationsansatzes, der in den 1970er Jahren von Ökonomen in Frankreich entwickelt wurde, ist die Analyse der Veränderbarkeit ökonomischer und sozialer Dynamiken in Raum und Zeit (vgl. Boyer 1986: 37). Das grundlegende Werk des Regulationsansatzes ist Michel Agliettas Buch Régulation et crises du capitalisme von 1976, eine Studie über die langfristige kapitalistische Entwicklung in den USA.
In Financial Markets, Money and the Real World Paul Davidson, a leading Post Keynesian economist, adds his voice to calls for reforms of the ‘international financial architecture’. Unlike other reformers, his proposals centre on a new form of world money. In this chapter I shall present a critical assessment of his position from a Marxian standpoint.
Hayek conclut sa théorie du capital en dénonçant les thèses scandaleuses qui forment le cœur de l’économie keynésienne. Pour la science classique dont Hayek est l’aboutissement, Keynes est non récupérable. La réflexion moderne sur la théorie des ménages et des réseaux et les équilibres non-walrasiens explique la condamnation, elle conclut à l’acquitement de Keynes ! Hayek raisonne selon le modèle du Parasite. La société naturelle admet un Ordre, forme la plus englobante de l’équilibre, qui se révèle par trois lois. La loi d’austérité croissante, la loi de l’offre et de la demande, la loi du marché. Cet ordre demeure aussi longtemps que la société est contrôlée par un système de mesures objectives qui reflète la rareté absolue de la forme première de la valeur, le capital-argent, l’or.
La monnaie de crédit apparaît comme une négation du circuit de l’or. C’est un corps étranger à la société, un parasite, introduit par une coalition — l’Etat et la Banque — pour substituer la régulation par le plan à la régulation par le marché. Le plan abolit le système de mesures objectives, il émet de faux messages, il crée l’inflation, il nie l’Ordre. Contradiction, car ou bien la monnaie moderne est parasite, mais alors il faut attribuer aux agents un comportement aberrant, ou bien on leur reconnaît une rationalité minimale, mais la monnaie n’est plus parasite.
Preuve de l’existence d’une régulation monétaire, d’un ordre beaucoup plus général que l’ordre classique, fondée sur la monnaie de crédit et non sur la négation. La monnaie forme un réseau qui explique la formation d’un système de mesure assurant la coordination des plans des entreprises. Réseau qui est étudié dans le circuit du revenu et dans le circuit du capital qui l’englobe. Ordre socialement moins parfait que l’ordre hayekien puisqu’il n’exclut pas le chômage involontaire car il est hiérarchique et non égalitaire.
To the pure theorist, at the present juncture the most interesting and challenging aspect of money is that it can find no place in an Arrow-Debreu economy. This circumstance should also be of considerable significance to macroeconomists, but it rarely is. Much of current macroeconomics is written as if the ‘real’ economy could be looked at as an equilibrium of an Arrow-Debreu economy. It is true that these economists have given the economy a sequential characterisation, but they believe that the postulate of rational expectations renders this inessential: the underlying economy could just as well be that described by Debreu. In this, I believe, they are not only careless (since the matter is never given proof) but also mistaken. It is one of my central concerns in what follows to argue this. Indeed, I shall wish to maintain the view that from our present standpoint Keynes’s theory, and in particular his monetary theory, is best understood as a denial of the realism and relevance of Arrow-Debreu equilibrium. Of course, Keynes did not and could not have put it in this way and in any case, while he had a poet’s insight, he lacked the seriousness and care of a theoretician.
The Bretton Woods twins were conceived during a world war that followed a world depression. They were created by men who hoped to make the world depression-proof. We have not had a great depression since the war but have suffered the opposite malaise of inflation. Nevertheless, the twenty-five years since the founding have been years of prosperity unparalleled in history. It would be hard to say how much credit is due the Fund and Bank for this prosperity, but that fact alone should make us cautious about unbridled criticism. We do not know what would have happened had the Bretton Woods Agreement not been ratified, but the fact that the Fund has presided over a remarkable era in economic history shifts the burden of evidence onto the Fund’s critics. I include myself in the latter group, but primarily because we want to see the present era of prosperity continue and I believe reform of the Fund can enhance the chances that it will.
I. The concept of open market strategy, 2. — II. The money market strategy, 3. — III. Recommendations for procedural change,
20 — IV. Recent tendencies in open market strategy, 26. — V. Concluding comment, 30.
Although significant contributions have appeared in the literature in recent years, the present day theory of hedging and speculation appears to account inadequately for certain market practices. In particular, the motivation of the trader who undertakes hedging activities, the role that hedging plays in his over-all market operations, and the distinction between a trader who hedges and one who speculates have given rise to difficulties in the literature. My purposes here are (1) to outline briefly the purposes and mechanics of a commodity futures market, (2) to discuss and appraise the theory of hedging and speculation as it exists today, (3) to present a reformulated concept of hedging, and (4) to construct a model that may both assist in clarifying the concepts of hedging and speculation and contribute to a better understanding of certain market phenomena.
Standard real business cycle models must rely on total factor productivity (TFP) shocks to explain the observed comovement of consumption, investment, and hours worked. This paper shows that a neoclassical model consistent with observed heterogeneity in labor supply and consumption can generate comovement in the absence of TFP shocks. Intertemporal substitution of goods and leisure induces comovement over the business cycle through heterogeneity in the consumption behavior of employed and unemployed workers. This result owes to two model features introduced to capture important characteristics of U.S. labor market data. First, individual consumption is affected by the number of hours worked: Employed agents consume more on average than the unemployed do. Second, changes in the employment rate, a central factor explaining variation in total hours, affect aggregate consumption. Demand shocks--such as shifts in the marginal efficiency of investment, as well as government spending shocks and news shocks--are shown to generate economic fluctuations consistent with observed business cycles.
Now available directly from: IIE11 Dupont Circle, NWWashington, DC 20036Tel: (202) 328-9000The wide swings in inflation rates, interest rates, and exchange rates in recent years maybe due at least partly to the failure of national monetary authorities - particularly in the United States, Germany, and Japan - to take adequate account of changes in the international demand for their currencies. More explicit coordination of monetary policies among these countries could provide a better foundation for world economic stability. This monograph makes specific proposals for stabilizing exchange rates while bringing joint money growth in the hard-currency countries under better control.
"Truly a distinguished piece of work, based on new data that had not been analyzed before. There is an excellent combination of historical perspective, conscientious examination of a great mass of data, and penetrating analysis." (Robert Aaron Gordon, Charter Member of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity). "Contends that since the Second World War, a small number of 'giant, well-established' banks in a few major cities have re-emerged as the major group that controls large corporations. Places the financial control thesis in historical perspective from the Civil War to the present and then examines the control of the two hundred largest U.S. corporations in 1967-69 in terms of owner control, financial control, and no identified center of control. Also comments on the means of exercising control...the author finds that a substantial portion of the largest nonfinancial corporations in 1967-69 were under the control of financial institutions; the control is exercised through the ownership of stock and the role of the bankers as creditors of the corporations." (Journal of Economic Literature). "Recent empirical evidence, made available through congressional hearings, reveals that large banking groups are exercising substantial influence over nonfinancial corporations. This is accomplished through stock holdings, creditor relationships, and directorship ties. In this excellent historical statistical analysis, Katz assesses the extent and impact of such control in a competitive economy." (Library Journal).
I. Introduction, 65. — II. A model of long-run growth, 66. — III. Possible growth patterns, 68. — IV. Examples, 73. — V. Behavior
of interest and wage rates, 78. — VI. Extensions, 85. — VII. Qualifications, 91.
In order to explain fairly simply how expectations are formed, we advance the hypothesis that they are essentially the same as the predictions of the relevant economic theory. In particular, the hypothesis asserts that the economy generally does not waste information, and that expectations depend specifically on the structure of the entire system. Methods of analysis, which are appropriate under special conditions, are described in the context of an isolated market with a fixed production lag. The interpretative value of the hypothesis is illustrated by introducing commodity speculation into the system.
One of the most exciting results of the macro-economic theories which have recently been elaborated in Cambridge is a very simple relation connecting the rate of profit and the distribution of income to the rate of economic growth, through the inter-action of the different propensities to save. The interesting aspect of this relation is that—by utilizing the Keynesian concepts of income determination by effective demand and of investment as a variable independent of consumption and savings—it gives a neat and modern content to the deep-rooted old Classical idea of a certain connection between distribution of income and capital accumulation. In this sense, it represents a break with the hundred-year-old tradition of marginal theory, and it is no wonder that it has immediately become the target of attacks and eulogies of such strongly emotional character. Approval and rejection have almost invariably coincided with the commentators’ marginalistic or nonmarginalistic view.
This chapter presents a suggestion for simplifying the theory of money. In the theory of money, one wants to know how the individual's demand for money will respond to a change in his total wealth in the value of his net assets. The assumption of increased wealth leading to a proportionately increased demand for money is only plausible as long as the value of assets has increased, but other things have remained equal. The other things that are relevant to this case are not prices but anticipations, of the yield of investment and so on. As these anticipations must be based upon objective facts, and an unexpected increase in wealth implies a change in objective facts, of a sort very likely to be relevant to the anticipations, it is fairly safe to assume that many of the changes in wealth with which one is concerned will be accompanied by a change in anticipations. To anyone who comes over from the theory of value to the theory of money, there are a number of things that are rather startling.