The purpose of this second Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook is to systematically analyze and assess the plausibility of certain well-defined climate futures based on present knowledge of social drivers and physical processes. In particular, we assess the plausibility of those climate futures that are envisioned by the 2015 Paris Agreement, namely holding global warming to well below 2°C and, if possible, to 1.5°C, relative to pre-industrial levels (UNFCCC 2015, Article 2 paragraph 1a). The world will have to reach a state of deep decarbonization by 2050 to be compliant with the 1.5°C goal. We therefore work with a climate future scenario that combines emissions and temperature goals.
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... Actual technology alone is not sufficient to combat climate change, societal change (that can be supported by technology) is at least as important . They report consumption patterns and corporate responses to be the two social factors that still undermine the goals of decarbonization. ...
A pro-environmental attitude in the general population is essential to combat climate change. Society as a whole has the power to change economic processes through market demands and to exert pressure on policymakers - both are key social factors that currently undermine the goals of decarbonization. Creating long-lasting, sustainable attitudes is challenging and behavior change technologies do hard to overcome their limitations. Environmental psychology proposes social factors to be relevant, a.o. creating a global identity feeling and widening one's view beyond the own bubble. From our experience in the field of mobile sensing and psychometric data inferences, we see strong potential in mobile sensing technologies to implement the aforementioned goals. We present concrete ideas in this paper, aiming to refine and extend them with the workshop and evaluate them afterward.
We suggest a new Social Plausibility Assessment Framework to assess which climate futures are plausible (Aykut, Wiener et al., 2021). The approach is rooted in theories about social change, social inertia and path dependency, disruptive change, and transformation. This theoretical basis allows us to identify a set of key drivers that can be assumed to have a high impact on a given future scenario. A climate future is socially plausible if the empirical evidence about the key drivers point in the direction toward the chosen scenario, or at least strongly indicates that enabling conditions are building up that support this direction. To test the framework, we chose the scenario of deep decarbonization by 2050 which is our understanding of the necessary social change that would be needed for limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C, with reasonable likelihood of only a limited overshoot. We selected ten key social drivers that influence whether we achieve deep decarbonization by 2050: UN climate governance, transnational initiatives, climate-related regulation, climate protests and social movements, climate litigation, corporate responses, fossil fuel divestment, consumption patterns, journalism, and knowledge production. We defined enabling and constraining conditions for each of these drivers to be able to assess whether these drivers are moving towards or away from deep decarbonization, and how fast. We used extensive literature reviews, existing data bases, and our own research to establish the empirical evidence for the assessment. Unless the enabling conditions of social drivers change dramatically over the next few years, reaching worldwide deep decarbonization by 2050 is not plausible. We discuss implications of this assessment.
In line with the urgency of problems related to climate change, studies on the framing of this issue have flourished in recent years. However, as in framing research overall, a lack of definitions complicates the synthesis of theoretical/empirical insights. This systematic review contrasts trends of framing in climate change communication to those observed in reviews of communication research overall and harnesses framing's power to bridge perspectives by comparing frames across different frame locations (i.e., frame production, frame content, audience frames, and framing effects), as part of the wider cultural framing repository. Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches of content analysis, this review draws on 25 years of peer-reviewed literature on the framing of climate change (n = 275). Among the findings, we observe that research has not made use of framing's bridging potential. Hence, the conceptual (mis)fit between frame locations will be discussed, and directions for future research will be given.
Globale Krisen wie der Klimawandel und die Corona-Pandemie machen die Politische Ökologie zu einem unverzichtbaren Forschungsfeld der Zukunft. Die Beiträger*innen des ersten deutschsprachigen Handbuchs zum Thema stellen die hierfür relevanten Theorien vor und zeigen anhand konkreter Konflikte und Kämpfe die Aktualität und den Mehrwert einer politisch-ökologischen Herangehensweise auf. Sie erläutern die zentralen Begriffe, die für Analyse, Kritik und Transformation von gesellschaftlichen Naturverhältnissen wichtig sind, und stellen für die Politische Ökologie fruchtbare Methoden und Arbeitsweisen vor. Ein übersichtliches Nachschlagewerk für unübersichtliche Verhältnisse.
The wind wake effect of offshore wind farms affects the hydrodynamical conditions in the ocean, which has been hypothesized to impact marine primary production. So far only little is known about the ecosystem response to wind wakes under the premisses of large offshore wind farm clusters. Here we show, via numerical modeling, that the associated wind wakes in the North Sea provoke large-scale changes in annual primary production with local changes of up to ±10% not only at the offshore wind farm clusters, but also distributed over a wider region. The model also projects an increase in sediment carbon in deeper areas of the southern North Sea due to reduced current velocities, and decreased dissolved oxygen inside an area with already low oxygen concentration. Our results provide evidence that the ongoing offshore wind farm developments can have a substantial impact on the structuring of coastal marine ecosystems on basin scales.
Efforts to advance environmental justice are often halting and uneven. How can we identify the longer-term significance of protests that seem to have failed? In this article, we turn to work on environmental injustice to examine the consequences of environmental justice movements over time and across space. We draw on the scholarship of Rob Nixon on ‘slow violence’: rather than the spectacular, visceral, and immediate violence of war, he argues that environmental degradation is a violence that operates in cumulative, slow-moving, accretive, and multi-causal ways. Borrowing – and flipping – Nixon’s conceptualization, we suggest that a parallel process of ‘slow justice’ is taking place. As with environmental damage, mobilization for environmental justice can have consequences that are dispersed in time and place, occur in non-linear forms, and operate at multiple scales. To track the pathways through which slow justice emerges, we develop a three-part typology of social movement connectivity. Using the categories of people, projects, and processes, we identify the geographically and temporally distanced social, material, and governance legacies of moments of resistance. Through a case study of mobilization against fossil fuel infrastructure in the Mackenzie Valley in northern Canada in the 1970s, we use the typology to trace how this moment of mobilization shaped other efforts of environmental justice organizing, including for campaigns in different regions and on different issue-areas. We argue that slow justice can reframe how we understand the outcomes of social mobilization projects, making visible the often obscure, indirect, and long-term accrued benefits of environmental justice work.
The ratification of the Paris Agreement implies the submission by each Party of a “ Nationally determined contribution” (NDC) which embodies its first goal and measures to reduce climate change. As a result of an international negotiation process that led to the adoption and entry into force of the Paris Agreement, the NDCs have no explicit legal status. Otherwise, they are unilateral State acts conditioned by the Paris Agreement. The ambitious enhance of the five-year NDCs ordered by the Paris Agreement to achieve its objective presupposes perfecting the conventional conditioning of form and substance of the NDC. In so doing, the legal effects of NDCs would be clarified and potentially at the heart of climate change litigation.