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Citation: Reguero, B.G.; Griggs, G.
Editorial: Adaptation to Coastal
Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise.
Water 2022,14, 996. https://doi.org/
10.3390/w14070996
Received: 14 January 2022
Accepted: 22 February 2022
Published: 22 March 2022
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water
Editorial
Editorial: Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change
and Sea-Level Rise
Borja G. Reguero 1, * and Gary Griggs 2
1Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
2
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA;
griggs@ucsc.edu
*Correspondence: breguero@ucsc.edu
1. Introduction to Climate Change in Coastal Zones
Climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every
inhabited region across the globe. Scientific evidence of observed changes in extremes such
as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones and, in particular, their
attributions to human influence have been strengthened in recent years [
1
]. The recent
IPCC report provides further alerts of the widespread and rapid changes occurring in
the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere and adds more urgency to preparing
adaptation actions and plans [
1
]. With global warming, every region is projected to in-
creasingly experience concurrent and multiple changes in climatic impact drivers. Changes
in several climatic impact drivers would be more widespread at 2
◦
C compared to 1.5
◦
C
global warming and even more widespread and/or pronounced for higher warming levels.
Coastal populations and their economies are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change.
The heating of the global climate system and the ocean is raising mean sea levels
through ocean thermal expansion and ice loss on land. Global mean sea level has increased
by 0.20 m since 1901 but the rate has been increasing in recent decades. Thermal expansion
explained 50% of sea-level rise (SLR) from 1971 to 2018, ice loss from glaciers contributed
explained 22%, ice sheets explained 20%, and changes in land–water storage explained
8%; but the rate of ice-sheet loss increased by a factor of four between 1992–1999 and
2010–2019 [
2
]. Even if emissions are halted today, global mean sea level will continue to rise
over the 21st century. Interannual events such El Niño and their effects on coastal hazards
along many coastlines globally [
3
–
6
] also represent an example of how natural internal
variability will also modulate climate changes, especially at regional scales and in the near
term. These scales are also important to consider in planning adaptation in coastal zones.
Regional mean relative SLR (relative rise in sea level with respect to land movement)
will continue throughout the 21st century except in a few regions with substantial geologic
land uplift rates. Despite regional variations, approximately two-thirds of the global
coastline has a projected regional relative SLR within
±
20% of the global mean increase.
The latest projections of global mean SLR by 2100 indicate increases of 0.28–0.55 m under
very low GHG emission scenarios (SSP1-1.9) and 0.63–1.01 m under the very high GHG
emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). However, the global mean SLR above the likely range cannot
be ruled out and values of 2 m by 2100 and 5 m by 2150 under a very high GHG emissions
scenario (SSP5-8.5) could be possible given the deep uncertainty in ice-sheet processes [
2
].
In coastal cities, inundation from SLR would be only one of the effects of climate
change. SLR and changes in storm surges, waves, and rainfall will significantly alter
coastlines through inundation, flooding, erosion, and salt-water intrusion of low-lying
areas globally. The combination of SLR with more frequent extreme sea level events
(including through changes in storm surge) and extreme rainfall and river flow events will
make flooding more probable. Extreme sea levels with a 1% historical annual probability
Water 2022,14, 996. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14070996 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/water
Water 2022,14, 996 2 of 7
are expected to become an annual event at 19–31% of the 634 global tide stations by 2050,
and by 2100, they will become annual events at 60–82% of stations depending on climate
scenarios [
2
]. Relative SLR also contributes to increases in the frequency and severity of
coastal flooding in low-lying areas and to coastal erosion along most sandy coasts. Water
levels during high tides also produce nuisance flooding and can challenge the efficiency
of stormwater drainage and wastewater outfall under storm conditions. Water and other
infrastructure, often located along the open coast or shorelines influenced by tides, will
also be vulnerable to flooding and erosion from SLR and changes in wave action and storm
surges. Rising sea levels will also aggravate or drive new saltwater intrusion into freshwater
resources and aquifers. However, the consequences and local effects of climate change in
coastal zones will vary globally depending on the rate of SLR relative to land elevation, local
changes in storm activity, and coastal geomorphology. Many regions will also experience
an increase in the probability of compound events with additional global warming [1].
Therefore, in addition to the global need to reduce and halt greenhouse gas emissions,
the inertia in the climate system and the increasing costs of extreme weather events make
the need to adapt to climate change and its impacts increasingly urgent, especially in
coastal zones. Coastal areas are some of the most vulnerable to climate impacts because
they concentrate high exposure of economic activity and population to the impacts of
climate hazards [
7
,
8
]. As the link between land and the sea, coastal zones also host rich
ecosystems and habitats that are increasingly important to human activities, employment,
food security, recreation, and cultural values [
9
,
10
]. Yet, human and natural pressures,
including rapid loss of ecosystems, unsustainable development, and intense use of coastal
resources, further add sustainability challenges to global climate stressors on coastal zones
globally [11–14]. The need to manage and adapt to these challenges is urgent.
2. Goal of This Special Issue
Climate change is a global issue, but it is felt on a local scale. Cities and municipalities
are at the frontline of adaptation and require measures, experience, policies, and strategies
that can integrate adaptation efforts into regional coastal policies and decisions (as well as
plans for sustainable economic development) [
15
–
17
]. Global awareness has been rising,
but coastal adaptation still lacks mainstreamed implementation and consistent procedures,
practices, and policies. This Special Issue’s goal is to present experiences and examples of
case studies in different regions to illustrate how communities are effectively planning and
implementing coastal adaptation in different contexts and landscapes.
This Special Issue includes one introductory (review) article on adaptation to climate
change in coastal zones. The review article by Griggs and Reguero [
18
] provides an
introductory description of some of the most important coastal hazards and their relevant
timescales, including SLR, changes in wave energy, and other extreme sea levels. It provides
a description of the main impacts on coastal areas but also an overview of potential
solutions, adaptation responses, and the decision-making process. This overview can help
communities and readers in preparing individual strategies. The review article may also
help to identify challenges as it briefly outlines the main challenges to adaptation, which
include technological, social conflict, economic, and financial barriers.
The research articles in the collection provide innovative insights into different aspects
of adaptation to climate change in coastal zones and include research on exposure to coastal
hazards and SLR; evaluation of adaptation solutions and strategies under uncertainty; and
factors influencing effective adaptation, including communication and cultural biases. The
highlights of these articles are summarized below.
3. Summary of Contributions
3.1. Exposure to Coastal Hazards
Gomez [
19
] provides critical insight on one impact of SLR that has been less examined
in research. SLR hinders gravity flows of storm runoff discharge into the ocean, which may
cause floodwater in low-lying depressions. This paper focuses on the influence of surface
Water 2022,14, 996 3 of 7
water inputs, geomorphology, and such hydrological effects, such as the case presented
in Mana Plain in Kauai, Hawaii, where the majority of storm runoff relies on gravity
flow to the ocean. This example calls for attention to multiple mechanisms of flooding
as increasingly imminent threats to islands and low-lying urban areas. The author uses
hydrological modeling to estimate runoff volumes, drainage and pumping needs using
different annual exceedance probabilities, and provides validation against a recent 2020
storm. The critical variables controlling this process are the amounts of direct groundwater
inflow and rainfall. The ~100-year-old drainage ditch system on the Mana Plain has helped
prevent storm runoff from persistent ponding in low-lying areas, but SLR may compromise
this system in the future. Estimates for this case study suggests the risk of flooding from
surface water with 1 m of SLR likely being extended to 5.45 km
2
of land. By the end of
this century, 25% of the agricultural land on the Mana Plain may be exposed to flooding
as an indirect operational consequence of SLR. The recent ponding in 2020 covered 3 km
2
of land and required 17 days of pumping to lower the water level in the ditch system to
its pre-storm elevation. This study points to the need to carefully maintain drainage, to
increase pumping capacity and its operational ability, and to divert storm water away from
sensitive land use areas. Adaptation strategies may also create storage or retention areas
on agricultural land and open floodable spaces as a nature-based option for mitigating
multi-mechanism flooding events.
In order to plan for adaptation, national and local governments need to first assess
their coastal vulnerability to climate change. However, less information on vulnerability
and adaptation is usually available for developing regions. When assessing flood and
inundation risks, some critical data are topography, bathymetry, and socio-economic data.
Acosta et al. [
20
] provided a review of datasets available for assessing exposure to coastal
hazards in Jamaica in terms of resolution and costs. The article first compares available
digital elevation models (DEM) for Jamaica considering spatial resolution (varying from
3 cm to 90 m), vertical accuracy (from 1 to 12 m), and costs (see Table 1 in [
20
]). The spatial
resolution and vertical accuracy of elevation models directly influences the modeled coastal
inundation area and estimates of population and infrastructure affected. The study finds
more than a three-fold difference between datasets in the estimates of people and property
affected for a 3 m flooding scenario. Information on socioeconomic exposure is also critical,
as global datasets can greatly differ from locally sourced information. Such large differences
emphasize the importance of the careful selection of appropriately scaled data for use in
models that will inform climate adaptation planning, especially when considering SLR. This
study also highlights the differences between Digital Surface Models and Digital Terrain
Models (bare ground, with objects removed) when modeling flooding in low-lying coastal
zones, especially in the presence of ecosystems, and reviews the recent attempts to remove
vegetation in global elevation models. The article also describes how multiple scales of
bathymetric data can be blended together, including global sources, nautical charts and
local satellite-derived bathymetry, and the options available, including coastal ecosystems.
The majority of the climate change-induced SLR vulnerability and adaptation studies
focused on highly urbanized and intensively developed coasts across the world. Yet,
avoidance is a proactive approach that may prevent development or rebuilding in hazard
zones, such as flood plains or areas that would be inundated by SLR. Davar et al. [
21
]
presented a case study in Southern Iran, along the Gulf of Oman, which is a coastal area
with a low level of development. The study uses types of lands exposed to the high-end
estimates of SLR by 2100 as the primary criteria for determining adaptation approaches
and ways to develop the coast in the future, identifying areas that could be developed but
would be threatened by SLR, and including principles of spatial land management such as
land evaluation, suitability, and planned use.
These articles demonstrate that, without proper understanding of data and limitations,
project developers and decision makers may overvalue investments in adaptation and,
as result, science may not necessarily translate into effective adaptation implementation.
Acosta et al. demonstrated that precise digital elevation mapping (DEM) data are needed
Water 2022,14, 996 4 of 7
for targeted local-level decisions, but cost-effective, national data can be used by planners in
the absence of high-resolution data to support adaptation action planning (e.g., as in [
21
]),
possibly saving critical funding for project implementation.
3.2. Evaluating Adaptation Solutions and Uncertainties
Baseline information on vulnerability and exposure to coastal hazards can help prepare
adaptation strategies and compare solutions. However, research has been more limited on
how to evaluate strategies and uncertainties related to performance, timescales, and future
pathways. Two articles in this collection, Mills et al. and Revell et al., provide important
insight and scalable methodologies that identify and evaluate adaptation options in coastal
communities.
First, Mills et al. [
22
] used a spatially explicit, agent-based modeling platform for
different climate change scenarios to examine interactions between climate, human, and
adaptation policy factors in Tillamook County, OR (USA). The article explores strategies
that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards combining probabilistic simulation of coastal
hazards with policy drivers, such as individual decisions and management policies. The
study also compares the relative contribution and uncertainty from climate change and
policy factors using three stakeholder-relevant performance metrics: flooding, erosion, and
recreational beach access. Uncertainty was addressed by considering climate drivers (i.e.,
wave height and sea-level rise), human adaptation factors (i.e., development restrictions,
construction of backshore protection structures), and future scenarios of climate change.
The approach allows for direct comparisons of strategies under uncertainty.
Mills et al. determined that, in general terms, policy decisions introduced greater
variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than the uncertainty sources
associated with climate change. However, the case study illustrates a method to drive more
robust and informed implementation of policies, as it highlights that some options provide
more certain outcomes across scenarios and, therefore, may be more recommendable than
others that do not provide consistent benefits across metrics and climate scenarios.
Revell et al. [
23
] presented a holistic framework for evaluating adaptation approaches
to coastal hazards and SLR in a case study for Imperial Beach, California (USA). The arti-
cle considers coastal flooding, erosion, and king tide flooding to develop a vulnerability
assessment and compares five adaptation approaches—armoring, nourishment, living
shorelines, groins, and managed retreat. The vulnerability assessment uses information on
hazards and SLR scenarios to identify flooding and erosion risks, including estimates of
direct damages to structures and how beach recreational, non-market values change with
beach width. Adaptation solutions, identified by a steering committee and stakeholders,
were modeled through physical responses to the public beach and private assets over time
by linking physical changes in widths and water depths to damages, economic costs, and
benefits from beach recreation and nature. The study provides a comprehensive benefit–
cost framework based on project lifecycle costs and benefits that include the following:
(i) flood damage prevention to property and infrastructure (public and private), (ii) recre-
ation, and (iii) ecological value of beaches, measured as non-market and replacement cost
values, respectively. The approach, therefore, assesses economic impacts associated with
public trust recreation and ecosystem services over time, which represents a novel approach
for assessing cost and benefits of adaptation strategies. Often, short-term adaptation armor-
ing responses protect assets at the expense of the long-term health of public trust resources
such as beach recreation and coastal ecosystems. Valuing public trust ecosystem services
along with other adaptation benefits has been less evaluated in research thus far. However,
this study for Imperial Beach also uses replacement cost as a proxy for ecosystem services,
assigning economic values of development and infrastructure, recreation, and ecosystem
services to each beach width. These estimates of replacement cost for loss of beach services,
previously used on wetlands, are innovative and relevant for quantifying and tracking
adaptation benefits of projects. This approach also allows for the inclusion of a managed
retreat policy approach using a public buyout and rent-back option.
Water 2022,14, 996 5 of 7
In Imperial Beach, Revell et al. identifies that coastal armoring can provide the least
public benefits over time, while a cobble beach and a dune, in the form of a living shoreline
approach, present the greatest public benefits among the protection strategies. Yet, the
study shows that managed retreat, through a leaseback or long-term rental option, could be
the best long-term adaptation strategy. Results from the physical analysis of beach width
versus upland property also show that upland property would be maintained into the
future, while the beach is eventually lost, but between nine and eleven nourishment cycles
would be required by 2100 to maintain a recreational beach to accommodate 2 m of SLR
and maintain beach width and protect upland property.
3.3. From Science to Action: Developing Actionable Adaptation
Information on hazards and solutions may facilitate progress for the coast’s sustain-
able and resilient future, but effective adaptation requires careful consideration of many
important aspects that intersect between sectorial activities; policies, public, and private
property; and even communication. This Special Issue also presents some fresh perspec-
tives from California, Florida, and Mexico on barriers, experiences, lessons, cultural views,
and effective communication that influence effective adaptation.
First, communicating SLR and other coastal risks is not a simple task. Communicating
adaptation needs is challenging because SLR is a phenomenon that is abstract to many peo-
ple; climate change is a slow and temporally distant process; and the benefits of adaptation
will only materialize in the future and may not always be tangible to everyone today. Calil
et al. [
24
] showed that visualizing SLR simulations using Virtual Reality (VR) technology
may offer a method to overcome some of these challenges, as it enables users to learn key
principles related to climate change and coastal risks in an immersive, interactive, and safe
learning environment. The article shows three key experiences of how VR has served to
effectively facilitate new ways to engage with communities, communicate and visualize
the impacts, and inform local action through multidisciplinary collaborations between
scientists and communities. The article also reviews the literature on communication of
environmental issues, which suggest that the context as much as the environmental issue is
critical to promote pro-environmental behavior and attitudes. Calil et al. demonstrated
that VR can play an important role in facilitating the local understanding of climate change
impacts and solutions in coastal zones but also to effectively engage communities in plan-
ning adaptation measures. The recent technological advancements and decreases in the
cost of technology elevate VR as a prime tool that could be mainstreamed in the future in
adaptation efforts to engage communities in planning processes.
Similarly, managed retreat has often faced steady resistance in many communities.
Managed retreat may represent a cost-effective option in the long term (e.g., as in Imperial
Beach), but it is challenged by societal perceptions and the large cost in terms of private
property loss. Bragg et al. [
25
] revised the process of seven California communities at
imminent risk of SLR and categorized whether they were receptive or resistant to managed
retreat as an adaptation strategy. Three prominent themes distinguished the two groups:
(1) inclusivity, timing, and consistency of communication; (2) property ownership; and
(3) stakeholder reluctance to change. Based on these cases, the authors provide recom-
mendations for communicating managed retreat more effectively so that it does not stymy
inclusion in adaptation plans.
However, findings in Stolz et al. [
26
] suggest that that adaptation views can be medi-
ated by age, attachment to place, and worldviews. Stolz et al. evaluated fishing industry
perspectives on SLR exposure and adaptation in three Florida coastal communities. In
Florida, SLR stands to produce a significant impact on coastal communities, but the state’s
fishing industry will be affected in vulnerable areas through disruption of established
patterns of fishery and marine resource uses. Florida boasts an abundance and diversity
of saltwater fisheries along its 1920 km coastline, valued at over USD 12 billion between
recreational and commercial fishing. This important industry is uniquely vulnerable to
SLR and other effects of climate change given its physical exposure and high dependence
Water 2022,14, 996 6 of 7
on the resource. Using a semi-structured interview approach, the Stolz et al. study eval-
uated fishing industry perspectives on SLR risk and adaptation in three Florida coastal
communities. The study shows that adaptation responses vary across industry sectors
and communities and are strongly influenced by experience, community dynamics, and
age. Generally, older fishers were found to be less willing to relocate due to social factors
and strong place attachment compared to younger fishers, who are more likely to retreat
and/or work from a less vulnerable location.
Escudero and Mendoza [
27
] provided a perspective on climate change adaptation in
Mexico, where the coastline combines high population densities with economic dependence
of coastal activities. The coast of Mexico is not only important for the national economy,
but it also hosts a great diversity of ecosystems, which are threatened by anthropogenic
and hydrometeorological stressors. The population is becoming progressively aware of the
urgent need to adapt to the consequences of climate change. The article by Escudero and
Mendoza reviews population perception to climate change and adaptation strategies in
Mexico and highlight critical institutional and social barriers that have impeded effective
implementation thus far. There are different examples of social, institutional, and physical
adaptation activities. These activities also include successful ecosystem-based projects,
especially on mangrove and coral reef restoration, which are of essential importance to
consider for progressing on the path of a successful coastal adaptation in Mexico. The
main difficulties encountered for effective implementation, however, include the following:
institutional discrepancies in the implementation of strategies at the national and local level;
weak governance structures that impede informed and effective participation of society;
subordination of climate change strategies to economic growth objectives; overexploitation
of natural resources; lack of information on hazards and monitoring; and challenges in
resources and effective communication to society of the adaptation strategies. Strategies
to climate change in Mexico may consider steps to address them, including economic
resources, involvement of civil society and cultural values, effective regulation of land use,
addressing environmental degradation, and developing information and communication
to advance local adaptation actions.
Author Contributions:
B.G.R. and G.G. jointly developed the conceptualization and article writing
and editing. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding:
B.G.R. acknowledges the support from an Early-Career Research Fellowship from the Gulf
Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, although the
content is solely responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of
the Gulf Research Program of the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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