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Changes in the energy supply strategy of the EU countries amid the full-
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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1126 (2023) 012035
IOP Publishing
doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1126/1/012035
1
Changes in the energy supply strategy of the EU countries
amid the full-scale Russian invasion
M. Kravchenko1, O. Ilyash2, L. Smoliar3, К. Boiarynova2, O. Trofymenko2
1 Faculty of Management and Marketing, National Technical University of Ukraine
“Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, 37 Victory avenue, building 1, Kyiv
03056, Ukraine
2 Department of Economic Cybernetics, National Technical University of Ukraine
“Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Kyiv, Ukraine
3 Department of Management of Enterprises, National Technical University of
Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Kyiv, Ukraine
E-mail: oliai@meta.ua
Abstract. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine could have a profound impact on
short-term solutions to the energy crisis (due to the loss of long-term contracts for
additional volumes of Russian gas). It could block a unified agenda because of
diverging interests of European countries, reduce European negotiating power, and
therefore, weaken Europe's resistance to Russian energy coercion in the long term.
The article confirms the hypothesis that the European energy crisis leads to a
slowdown in production and is caused primarily by smaller gas reserves, higher prices
and tighter global supplies. Based on the study of a specially developed index and the
results of assessing the state of energy independence of the European Union since the
beginning of the 21st century made it possible to carry out the task of researching
changes in the energy supply system of the EU countries against a background of the
Russian war. The demonstration of a map of the most relevant ways of importing
pipelines to the EU indicates the need to change the directions of diversification of the
energy imports structure. The goal-setting of the directions of implementing the «Fit
For 55» programme regarding the reduction of gas consumption by 2030 was studied
and the strategy of reducing the dependence of the European Union on Russian gas
was analysed.
1. Introduction
Y. Popkostova [1] is convinced that the energy crisis that engulfed Europe in 2021 continues to be the
main matter of concern. The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine accelerated changes in the general
energy order in 2022, caused a decrease in stability in the EU energy markets, increased energy
imbalances. These events draw increased attention to solving the problem of energy strategy. The
unfolding of the energy crisis in the EU against a background of the Russian war may still lead to the
development of the worst-case scenario of energy security, which has been averted so far thanks to a
record increase in the import of liquefied natural gas from North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia
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and the United States in the context of a reduction (cessation) of supplies from the Russian Federation,
minimization of the «winter risk» of low temperatures and the continuation of contractual gas supplies
from the Russian Federation. Europe's vulnerability to any cuts in Russian energy supplies will depend
on their timing and scale as well as on the complete cessation of gas supplies from the Russian
Federation in response to stricter Western sanctions. The likely consequences for Ukraine may be the
cessation of gas supplies from the Russian Federation to Europe, the impossibility of Ukraine to
transport gas (because of physical attacks on the gas transportation network and damage to pipes
caused by the Russian Federation). As a result of the military escalation, all transit flows through
Ukraine will remain under threat, which will lead to an increase in European gas prices in the EU
market. Dramatic changes in the security situation of the EU in the last months of 2022 require the
acceleration of the transition to clean energy and an increase in Europe’s energy independence. L.
Opinska, F.Gérard, O.Hoogland, et al [2] believe that the EU's transition to clean energy and defining
supply chains of energy technology that are crucial for ensuring the security of the EU's energy supply
and for eliminating the dependence on Russian fossil fuels will speed up the change in the energy
balance in the member states and will influence the functioning of the EU electricity market. All this
highlights the issue of qualitative monitoring of changes in the energy supply system of the countries
of the European Union against a background of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In this study, the authors will monitor the energy sector of Europe, taking into account many
variables. Analytical calculations will be aimed at determining the share of Russian gas in the structure
of imports in order to establish the level of influence of the cessation of Russian gas supplies on gas
transportation systems in Europe. In addition, unlike other studies, the article will carry out an analysis
of the Strategy for reducing the EU's oil dependence on Russia and provide an assessment of the "Fit
For 55" programme to reduce EU energy imports until 2030.
2. Materials and methods
The limited energy security measures currently in place for the EU make it difficult for them to form
a common energy policy regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. M. Mišík
analyzes this in-depth in his publication [3]. The experts of the Directorate-General for
Communication of the European Commission [4] claim that energy independence is a well-functioning
EU energy market, which must be integrated with the cross-border infrastructure that will protect
energy markets from price and supply fluctuations. In addition, in the event of external threats, as in
the case of Russian aggression and the rejection of Russian energy carriers, the member states will
have the opportunity to exchange electricity with their neighbours in the most economically and
environmentally efficient way.
Unfortunately, the heterogeneity of European energy markets is also substantiated by A. Carfora, R.
Vega Pansini and G. Scandurra [5]. According to the authors, the study of the heterogeneous structure
of the market shows that it is possible to benefit from replacing the import of energy carriers with
one's own energy production and reducing the level of energy dependence. Importation substitution
creates additional benefits from a development perspective by providing energy independence and
renewable energy. Mark P. Mills [6] thinks that the existential economic problem facing Europe after
the first energy war of the twenty-first century lies in the EU's ability to fully restore energy-intensive
industries. The author is convinced that the consequences of this energy policy became obvious even
before Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil prices were already in the $100-a-barrel range before the invasion,
while prices for natural gas and electricity similarly rose by 1,000 dollars.
Several scientific studies provide evidence to the importance of understanding how energy efficiency
can be improved. This symbiosis of findings proves that addressing issues regarding energy efficiency
is necessary due to the Russian military threat against Europe. Energy efficiency is defined as the ratio
of energy produced, services provided and energy stored to the energy input. This concept is vital to
the success of reducing oil dependency, controlling fossil fuel emissions and mitigating environmental
damage— in order to achieve a reliable global energy system for the European Union. It is worth
paying attention to the research of L. de Almeida, F. Esposito and J. van Zeben [7], who prove that an
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important goal of the EU energy policy is to ensure energy justice and openness of retail energy
markets of the member states to new participants. M. Simionescu [8], the author of this case,
suggested specific policies for each country group regarding energy usage per capita.
O. Trofymenko, O. Shevchuk, N. Koba et al [9] justify the necessity of proposing systemic
environmental innovation as one of the directions of increasing energy efficiency. According to the
scientists, establishing Transition Super Laboratories will increase the effectiveness of energy markets
thanks to Russia’s abandonment of fossil fuels. A. Toleikyte and J. Carlsson [10] strongly believe that
The National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) are a component of the Clean Energy for All
Europeans Package. Authors hope the plans determine the EU’s strategies and measures to solve
issues of energy efficiency, renewable energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In this context,
the opinions of such scientists as M. Pérez, D. Scholten and K. Stegen [21] deserve attention. They
believe it is necessary to study the opportunities and risks to energy security within the framework of
the European energy transition. Based on the position of the authors A. Rybak, J. Joostberens and S.
Kolev [22], we also emphasized the need for studying changes in the energy system of Poland by
conducting a cluster analysis of 141 countries of the world, including the EU-27 with the focus on the
European Green Deal. In addition, the scientific study of O. Ilyash, R. Lupak, T. Vasyltsiv et. al;
Ilyash, O., Lupak, R., Kravchenko, M. et. al. [11; 12] suggest that energy innovations that formalize
the multifunctionality of innovative ecological and economic development play a significant role in
increasing energy efficiency. Although this complicates the applied analysis of energy effects in EU
markets amid Russian military aggression in Ukraine. As in our study, in this context the calculation
of the energy independence index is of great importance. Bodlak A.O., Borynova K.O., Ilyash O.I. et.
al [13] in the work “Foresight: challenges to the energy independence of countries and regions of the
world in the medium-term (until 2025) and long-term (until 2030) time horizon” proposed a method of
quantitative assessment of the state of the countries’ energy systems in the form of an integral index
Energy Freedom Index, which summarizes the characteristics of these systems according to the
following groups of indicators (sub-indices): sub-index of energy potential and Sub-index of energy
balance and sub-index of energy development. In our previous study, presented in January 2022 [13],
an analysis of the real state of Ukraine's energy sector was conducted. On the basis of the conducted
research the article will substantiate the strategy of development and the consequences of the energy
crisis for the economy and security of the EU countries against a background of a full-scale invasion
of Ukraine.
3 Results
During 2020, Europe continued to show leadership in balancing the energy trilemma,
occupying eight places out of the top 10 places. At the same time, the consequences of the pandemic
have changed the general energy order and drawn particular attention to solving the problem of energy
sustainability. In general, European countries (except Norway) have had a low level of the energy
independence index. While demonstrating high performance in the energy capital in 2020, the region
has revealed vulnerability. This is primarily evidenced by a decrease in the studied index in most
European countries in 2020 (by 18.5–36.4% on average). Except for Portugal, where the level of
energy freedom increased by 4.9% and amounted to 6.7 p.p. Overall, the high rate of economic growth
and developed industry aggravated the energy imbalance, which was the main factor behind the low
level of the integral index (Fig. 1).
After the outbreak of the pandemic, many European countries experienced a decline in their energy
independence. The reason is that changes to the energy sector diminished their energy supply. In 2020,
France's nuclear power production will be the lowest since 1984. Additionally, Germany and the EU
as a whole will produce less nuclear power than in previous years. This decline was partially caused
by decreased primary energy consumption by 7.6%. Additionally, France's renewable energy
production fell by 6.7% in 2020 compared to 2019. This caused a decrease of overall renewable
energy production for the EU by 13%. With regards to natural gas, 4% more of it was used by the EU
as a whole in 2020. Some countries reduced their natural gas usage by large percentages. These
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include Sweden, Finland, Lithuania, Netherlands, and Germany. On the opposite end of the spectrum,
some countries increased their natural gas usage by over 25%. These include Belgium, Slovakia and
Italy. Additionally, Spain increased natural gas usage by over 13%; Estonia increased usage by over
17%; and France increased usage by over 3%.
Currently, almost all of the European Union's gas consumption is imported. As of recently, Russia
supplied about 45% of the gas consumed by the EU. They also provided about 34% of the oil and 45%
of the coal imported by the EU. In 2021, Russia will no longer be the main oil and gas supplier for the
EU; they'll be replaced by the European Union.
Figure 1. The energy independence index of European countries,
(as of the beginning of 2020)
Source: formed by the authors based on [13]
In response to the Ukraine invasion led by Russia, the EU enacted several sets of sanctions
regarding oil and gas trade. This change in trade is expected to become apparent by the first
two quarters of 2022 (Fig. 2) [17].
Figure 2. Imports of energy products outside the EU,
2018-2022 (monthly average)
Source: formed by the authors based on [17]
Figure 3. Main EU Natural Gas Imports
routes, 2022
Source: formed by the authors based on
[18]
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Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, caused the EU to implement efforts to diversify
the structure of their energy imports. These efforts included contracting Russia's gas market
manipulation and an energy crisis. As a result of Russia's shrinking share of supplies to the EU, over
40% of pipelines for importing energy into Europe were set up between June 2021 and May 2022.
This can be seen in Figure 3, which displays the routes of energy pipes that feed into the EU.
Russia's four different gas pipelines connect to the country via several pathways. These include
Ukraine’s and Turkey's Turkish Stream as well as the Nord Stream Pipeline through Poland. The
completion of Nord Stream Pipeline has caused huge political issues as it makes up the largest portion
of Russia's gas supply. Currently, importing more Russian liquefied natural gas is impossible due to
the limitations of current supply. Instead, the EU must rely on reducing overall energy consumption to
make up for lost imports.
The EU as a whole needs to decrease their demand by 15% compared to the average amount of
demand in 2019-2021. This is because Russia announced that they aren't importing any more gas for
them. Also, this is because some countries needed a sharper reduction in demand than others. Fig. 4-7
compare the minimum and maximum weekly natural gas import values from 2015 to 2020 with the
average weekly imports for 2021 and 2022. It also shows natural gas imports via Algeria, Norway and
Russia. Along with the volume of imports, the level of storage within the borders of the EU is a key
factor in ensuring the independence of markets [19].
Source: formed by the authors based on [19]
Figure 4. EU Natural Gas Imports (by source),
2022
Figure 5. EU Natural Gas Imports from Russia by
exporting route, 2022
Figure 6. Daily gas imports by Russian routes,
Norway, Algeria and LNG, 2022
Figure 7. EU Gas Storage, 2022
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The dependence of each country on Russian gas supplies was used to calculate how much each
country would lose in income if Russian supplies were cut off by 2022. This is because the amount of
Russian gas in each country's imports is based on the total amount of Russian gas used in other
countries' imports. By combining the estimated shares, an approximation of the financial hit can be
made for each group within the EU.
It’s necessary to provide the various countries with reduced demand between January and April
2022. This is because the decrease in demand for each group of countries was too small to meet their
needs without Russian energy. Several groups of countries already experienced this decrease in
demand and are currently experiencing difficulties (Fig. 8-9).
Figure 8. EU Storage/Demand scenarios without
Russian gas imports, 2022
Figure 9. Monthly storage evolution without Russian
gas, 2022
Source: formed by the authors based on [20]
Currently, France and Portugal are cutoff from the European market due to low connections
between Spain and France. A partnership between Algeria and Italy could make better use of Spain's
limited capacity within the European system. Russia's historically dependent Baltic states have limited
connections with Russia. The country's primary fuels come from Lithuania via Klaipeda LNG—
which are also mostly imported. In addition to easterly winds coming from Germany, Poland relies on
imports from the Świnoujście LNG terminal. This facility provides the country with 6 TWh of fuel
each month. Ukraine and Bulgaria rely on Russian natural gas imports to provide significant amounts
of their energy needs. However, both Romania and these countries have high production capacities;
they only import natural gas from Germany due to maintenance work on the Tyra field until June
2023. Germany is highly vulnerable to Russian interference because it gets its natural gas from natural
sources like the Tyra field. Germany faces a significant vulnerability due to the Tyra field maintenance
scheduled to take place until June 2023. This leads to Romania's high production capacity being
largely unnecessary due to the high amount of imported fuel from Ukraine and Bulgaria. Both
countries import fuel from Russia and its controlled regions of the world.
The Energy Strategy and Energy Alliance both support a competitive, safe and sustainable energy
supply in the European Union. Both initiatives call for higher levels of renewable energy usage in
Europe and encourage member countries to reduce their fossil fuel usage. This is due to the fact that
by 2030, 32% of the EU’s energy balance must be reliant on renewable sources. This can be
accomplished by all member countries using renewable resources — whether it’s imported or
domestic. Different member states have different motivations and speeds when it comes to moving
towards an energy transition. Some members want to transition to renewable energy sources — like
Germany and Denmark — while others actively fight against it with Poland as an example. The
Energy Union theoretically has 28 member states, but in practice there are numerous differences in
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geography, history, natural resources and political systems among the member states. Additionally,
there are concerns about countries’ energy security due to historical traditions and natural resources
(Fig. 10) [21].
Figure. 10. Clusterezation of EU members
regarding to their Energy ambitions
Figure. 11. The energy mixes of EU-27 members
vary by country, 2019.
Source: formed by the authors based on [21, 22]
Two clusters of EU-countries are represented in the Fig.11. Blue cluster represents countries that
place a high priority on security of supply and diversification of sources. They also led to coordinate
with countries in the Mediterranean to increase their importance as energy hubs and transit countries.
Countries in the green cluster see business opportunities in renewable energy and seek to combat
climate change through alliances. They also wish to target higher goals for renewable energy
production and incorporate climate negotiations into their plans. Finland, Sweden, Germany,
Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Austria are green cluster members. Another eight clusters appear
on the right side of the image. These contain a mixture of countries that place different priorities on
these issues. An in-depth analysis of the composition of energy structures of the 27 member EU
countries is conducted. Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary and Poland have significant shares of coal in their
energy mixes. Additionally, Italy, the Netherlands and Hungary have energy economies based on
natural gas. France's energy sector is powered by nuclear energy at a rate of 39%. This is due to the
fact that 22% of Sweden's energy comes from renewable sources. Additionally, Denmark uses
renewable energy 32% of the time. Countries primarily use crude oil as a resource. These include
Cyprus, Luxembourg, Belgium and Croatia; each uses a total of 95%, 75%, 55% and 50% of their oil
respectively (Fig. 11) [22].
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 greatly exacerbated the problems
in the energy market and caused the need for an immediate review of the energy system of the
European Union countries. On March 8, 2022, the European Commission presented a preliminary plan
to eliminate the dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2030 called REPowerEU, which is based on
two directions [23].
The first direction is to diversify supply and attract more renewable sources of gas. In particular, it
is planned to increase the import of LNG (which compensates for 60 billion cubic m of gas), double
the sustainable production of biomethane (which makes up for 18 billion cubic m of gas) and increase
the production and import of renewable hydrogen (20 million tons of hydrogen can compensate for 50
billion cubic m of gas).
The second direction is to accelerate the transition to clean energy. In particular, it is planned to
install photovoltaic panels on the roofs of residential buildings and businesses and double the speed of
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installing heat pumps. The Commission also outlined measures to respond to rising energy prices in
Europe and replenish gas reserves for the following winter [24].
Back in July, 2021, the European Commission adopted a large-scale programme named «Fit for
55» to fight climate change. The programme presents a set of legislative proposals and initiatives to
ensure compliance of EU policies with climate goals. Furthermore, the programme envisages the
introduction of significant changes in the energy sector, including renewable energy. Full
implementation of the proposals and initiatives of the programme will reduce gas consumption in the
EU countries by 30%, which is equivalent to 100 billion cubic meters by 2030. Russia exports 155
billion cubic meters of gas each year. This can be replaced by increased supply from renewable
resources, improved energy efficiency, the addition of electric generators and other alternative
measures (Table 1) [25].
According to the REPowerEU plan, the European Commission mandates the implementation of a
technical package by 17 European countries. The directive is intended to assist countries such as
Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus,
Hungary, Poland, Portugal and Romania in identifying and implementing policy changes that support
their transition away from Russian fossil fuels. These changes include increasing energy efficiency
and implementation of renewable energy alternatives.
In March, 2022, the International Energy Agency presented a 10-point plan to reduce the European
Union's reliance on Russian natural gas [24]. The plan provides for:
1. Prevention of new gas supply contracts with Russia, which will reduce contractual manipulations
on the part of the Russian Federation and diversify supplies. Thus, in the near future, the EU will have
opportunities to diversify gas supplies with the help of other sources, in particular LNG.
2. Replacement of Russian gas supplies with supplies from other countries, which will provide
about 30 billion cubic meters of gas from non-Russian sources. It is assumed that non-Russian imports
of natural gas (in particular, from Azerbaijan and Norway) may go up to 10 billion cubic meters over
the next year. LNG imports may increase by 20 billion cubic meters compared to the level of 2021.
3. Introduction of additional obligations regarding minimum gas reserves in storage facilities,
which will provide an opportunity to increase market stability. Based on the experience of recent
years, in order to ensure sufficiency of gas for the heating season, the minimum level of filling of
working storages on October 1st should be 90%, which means that in 2022 it is necessary to pump 18
billion cubic meters of gas more than in 2021.
4. Acceleration of the implementation of new wind and solar energy generation projects, which
will provide an additional 35 TWh of generation during 2022 and reduce gas consumption by 6 billion
cubic meters. In 2022, a record growth in capacity of solar and wind energy generation is expected,
and a return to average weather conditions is predicted. This project will increase the output of
renewable electricity sources in the EU by over 100TWh, which is 15% more compared to the
previous year.
5. Maximization of the generation of bio- and nuclear energy from existing sources. The expected
closure of five nuclear reactors in 2022-2023 could reduce the demand for gas by almost 1 billion
cubic meters per month. With the right incentives, a large fleet of bioenergy power plants could
provide up to 50 TWh of electricity by 2022.
6. Implementation of temporary measures to provide assistance to consumers who are financially
disadvantaged, which will help to reduce the total amount of electricity bills for consumers by 200
billion euros. If prices for gas and CO2 emissions rise, consumers' expenses for electricity inevitably
increase, which in turn leads to excess profits for electricity producers. These excess profits, estimated
at up to 200 billion euros, will be used for implementing measures to protect the most vulnerable
electricity consumers from rising costs.
7. Replacing gas boilers with heat pumps would reduce the need to heat buildings with gas by 2
billion cubic meters every year. This would require additional investment of 15 billion euros to
implement; however, it could increase the demand for gas used to power the heating system.
Replacing gas boilers with heat pumps would also increase the demand for electricity produced by
natural gas.
8. Acceleration of the implementation of projects to improve energy efficiency in buildings and
industry. By 2030, it’s estimated that the implementation of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive and
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the Directive on the energy performance of buildings will decrease heating needs by 45 billion cubic
meters per year. This is compared to the year 2021.
Table 1. Directions of implementing the «Fit For 55» programme to reduce gas consumption by 2030
Source: formed by the authors based on [§4].
Additionally, it's predicted that the EU Energy Efficiency Directive and the “Fit for 55 programme
will decrease heating needs by about 2 billion cubic meters by 2022.
Direction
Focus
Targets by 2030
Measures
Savings
by the
end of
2022, 1
billion
cubic
meters *
Additional
savings to
FF55 by
2030,
billion
cubic
meters*
Diversification of gas supplies
Replace-
ment for
gas import
from the
Russian
Federation
-
Diversification of LNG
imports
50
50
-
Diversification of natural gas
imports
10
10
Increase
in the
volume of
renewable
gases
Production of 17 billion
cubic meters of
biomethane, savings of
17 billion cubic meters.
Increase biomethane
production from 35 to up to
65 billion cubes by 2030
3,5
18
Production of 5.6
million tons of
hydrogen, savings of
9.0-18.5 billion cubic
meters.
Increase in the production
and import of hydrogen up to
20 million tons by 2030
-
25-50
Electrification of Europe
Buildings
Reductions of 38 billion
cubic meters of energy
savings come from
efforts to energy
efficiency.
Introduction of
comprehensive energy saving
measures
14
10
is considered in the
general data below
Installation of solar panels on
roofs with a capacity of up to
15 TWh per year
2,5
Additional
savings
Installation of 30
million heat pumps,
savings of 35 billion
cubic meters.
Installation up to 10 million
units in the next five years
two-fold acceleration of
projects implementation
1,5
Additional
savings
Energy
sector
Installation of 480 GW
of wind and 420 GW of
solar capacity, savings
of 170 billion cubic
meters.
Acceleration of projects
implementation by 20% and
installation of 80 GW of
additional capacity
20
Additional
savings
Transformation of
industry
Energy-
intensive
industries
More intensive
electrification and use
of hydrogen from
renewable sources
Active implementation of
innovations and the
expansion of the scope of
carbon contracts
Gas savings are taken
into account within the
target indicators of
programmes in order to
produce renewable
hydrogen from
renewable energy and
use natural resources.
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9. Encouraging consumers to regulate the heating temperature of buildings with the help of
thermostats, which will save up to 10 billion cubic meters every year. The average heating
temperature of houses in the EU currently exceeds 22°C. A decrease in the heating temperature of
buildings by only 1°C will reduce the need for gas by approximately 10 billion cubic meters per year,
and will also significantly decrease the cost of paying electricity bills.
10. Intensification of efforts to diversify, decarbonize and increase the flexibility of energy systems,
which will eventually help to eliminate the dependence on natural gas supplies and increase the level
of energy security. Flexibility comes from the use of gases right now.
The implementation of the updated energy supply strategy of the EU countries is based on two main
directions: diversification of supplies and the accelerated transition to clean energy. In the context of
the latter direction, the second act of the EU “green» taxonomy was adopted. It defines a number of
provisions concerning changes in the structure of energy supply, in particular, direct electrification of
end-use consumption is regarded as the most effective way of decarbonizing the economy. 66% of
European electricity has already been decarbonized, of which 50% is due to nuclear energy [25]. The
full use of renewable energy is impossible, given the climatic features of the European region.
Additional sources are being considered to increase the use of wind, solar energy or biomass from
32% to 40% of the final energy consumption rate by 2030.
Conclusions
Short-term efforts to resolve the energy crisis are caused by the loss of long-term contracts for
additional volumes of Russian energy. This is due to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It could
reduce European countries' negotiating power and lessen their resistance to Russian energy coercion in
the long term.
The European energy crisis led to production decreases and was caused by smaller gas reserves,
high prices and decreased global supplies. The results of analyzing a special index allowed us to
understand changes in the EU countries’ energy supply systems.
The intensification of the European energy crisis and significant socio-economic losses against a
background of Russia’s full-scale invasion had an adverse impact on the energy markets of the EU
countries. Price shocks and expectations in the EU energy markets caused the acceleration of the gas
and energy crisis and fundamentally changed the situation in the European energy markets. The
analytical calculations of the approximate share of Russian gas in the import structure of each group
by aggregating them in incoming flows made it possible to take into account the impact of the
cessation of Russian gas supplies in 2022.
The complete cessation of Russian flows will reduce each flow within the EU by the calculated
dependence of each group of the countries on Russian gas. The development of Europe’s energy sector
requires careful consideration of numerous variables.
By diversifying the supply of gas and attracting new renewable sources, the first step is to increase
LNG imports. This is intended to offset the loss of billions cubic meters of natural gas by importing
LNG. It is also planned to double the sustainable production of biomethane which is intended to offset
the loss of natural gas. Finally, it is intended to increase the import and production of renewable
hydrogen. This plan would allow up to billions cubic meters of natural gas to be replaced with
hydrogen which would compensate for what is lost. Diversifying supply is key to attracting more
renewable sources of gas. It is also important to increase the import of Liquefied Natural Gas.
Additionally, biomethane production should increase by a factor of two. Lastly, importing million tons
of hydrogen, which can replace billions cubic meters of natural gas is also necessary.
To address rising energy prices, the commission plans to increase the speed of installing heat
pumps. Additionally, they are planning to put photovoltaic panels on the roofs of business and
residential buildings. Furthermore, they have suggested speeding up the transition to clean energy by
increasing the speed at which residential buildings switch to heat pumps.
Changing the current pipeline importation structure is necessary to properly display a detailed map
of pipeline importing methods in the European Union. The goal of “Fit For 55” programme to reduce
EU energy imports by 2030 was evaluated. The «Fit for 55» programme, which aims to combat
climate change and ensure compliance of the EU policy with climate goals will cut gas consumption in
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the EU countries by 30% by 2030. Currently over 155 billion cubic meters of gas are exported from
the Russian Federation. Another option is replacing this gas supply with various changes to the
structure, increased renewable gas supply, lower energy usage, improved availability of electricity and
more. Additionally, the study of a possible “Strategy to Reduce EU Oil Dependence on Russia” was
conducted.
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